EPTwe dont need every vigi shooting the first night they can we might need it later, when more information and analysis is available.
TL Mafia XXXVI - Page 3
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
we dont need every vigi shooting the first night they can we might need it later, when more information and analysis is available. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On January 30 2011 06:29 Kavdragon wrote: From what i read, the clues work like this: If three people die, there will be three clues. (with the SK being a possible exception to that rule). The clues will NOT NECESSARILY be in the description of the person who died. This means that all three could be in the last person's death, or they could be spread out, or wherever. If an SK kills someone, I'm assuming that the clue will just not always be there. So for instance, the SK kills one person, the mafia kill two. There will be two clues in the day post, but they could be anywhere in the post. The important part is to remember that the clues could appear anywhere in the post, including right next to each other. Man how do I miss this stuff, I thought I read this thread completely, Ill keep this in mind. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
 Im too busy being bummed about RoLI can't post anything good at the moment without going over everything, but I will contribute a good 24 hours before lynch so stay tuned. | ||
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bumatlarge
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On January 31 2011 08:59 LSB wrote: Sure. If you believe me. It's all in the day 3 post LSB is the SK and we have to all lynch him or town never wins. THE CLUES MEAN NOTHING. I really can't think properly. Maybe I should get a beer and just type whatever comes into my head in one post? And then I can say I'm contributing today. It's between Nemesis/Beneather/Jackal? Healthy competition. I think you need clues from more then 1 day to really get me on board with it. The all function being gone is killing my morale to really analyze and review. With RoL, it was just ctrl-f, copy-paste and type thoughts and I was formulating opinions and thoughts in about 15 minutes. Well, the next best way is to search their name in content and mouseclick-3 the numbers and read/quote from there. I guess I could give them all a quick run and ignore clues until I develop opinions. Or I can just assume Kav is town and vote whatever he does lol Dont ask me why Im spoilering all this, because it's more then likely gonna make you read this useless stuff when you might skip over plain texted paragraphs. I'll be posting more soon. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
Beneather and Jackal: Together! Really depends on how hard you base on clues and analysis. Without those, Jackal is really fudged since Beneather is already a BG, and finding out he isn't mafia will make us take a step back and have our census vulnerability take 3 steps forward. Jackal is the obvious choice. If we take that aspect away, they look really similar. Im just going with jackal, because we need to kill scum now, and we need to have this mayor dude keep dishing out the censi. Nemesis better deliver though and not just think he can attack people already under the scope to save himself. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote: Pretty confident he's scum, clues fit well and he had motive to kill d3. Its possible that d3 fingered a large portion of the mafia team, which would be the reason they killed him off. Theres not a whole lot of other reasons for it. Looking back at d3's list of suspects: Nemesis Darmousseh Beneather kitaman27 Eti307 LunarDestiny GMarshal Of these I think Nemesis and Beneather are certain mafia. Lunar is high up on the list as well, he completely ingored beneather as a possibility for the dog meat clue and tunnelled me instead. Probably trying to divert attention from beneather. Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him. My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum. :X Thats pretty ballsy. I think if both BGs were scum and mayor was not... wouldnt he be dead already? Well perhaps it might be better to wait for one to die... Still using a vig on the chance TWO people might be scum is a little risky. Better off lynching the more incriminated one, and seeing what he flips. | ||
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bumatlarge
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On February 01 2011 03:51 deconduo wrote: I am not going to let you bait me into an argument over WIFOM as I'm sure you would like to divert attention from important matters once again. I will however clarify my logic: -I feel that the clues point quite clearly towards beneather being the scum that killed d3. It is also much more likely that it was a mafia kill rather than an SK kill. -As d3 had already pointed out suspicions towards beneather, amongst others, this would be a good motive for the kill. OBVIOUSLY only the killer (or his team) knows the exact reasoning behind making a kill, however it does no harm to speculate especially on an unexpected kill. -I know that all the times I've been mafia, I've always tried to kill people who get too close to working out who we are. You can see I was thinking about this early when I looked over at who had been killed so far. This was before I suspected Beneather at all. Finally, lets take a look at the people who lynched RoL and saved Nemesis on day 2: bumatlarge LunarDestiny Nemesis darmousseh Beneather kitaman27 Eti307 kavdragon (switched) Notice any similarities? Oh wow didn't notice that before. Are sure D3 wasn't just basing off his suspects off that list anyway minus Kav and myself? (as we seem to have been the only ones actually really going into RoL's analysis in detail) I'll give this a chance. You're suggesting nemesis for the lynch then? | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 02 2011 04:43 Kavdragon wrote: Right, enough about the BG's. I think that we should give our blues some direction. This idea is coming from BC's thread on town play. Blues, feel free to take or leave our advice. The discussion is as much for you Blues as it is for Vanilla townies. If people are going to suggest things, be specific. Call people out by name, don't generalize. It's really easy for scum to hid in the crowd of people saying "we should dt check inactives". It's much harder for them to post specific requests for DT/Medic/Vig hits, and when they do, it gives us WAY more information about mafia than general "good" advice. I'll start: DT's: Beneather's alignment will be shown by who dies first, me or him. Do not waste time on him. Papapanda comes off as very scummy to me, but this could simply be because he's new. I'd highly recommend him for a DT check. (Constantly apologizing for himself, very tentative about his ideas/opinions. Very typical of newer scum players.) Medics: Mafia made a play for GMarshal after I called for Medics to protect LunarDestiny. You caught this before, so keep up the work with the wifom. LunarDestiny is still a good heal target. GMarshal is also a good target, in case the mafia make a play for eliminating the census again. Vig: My request for a hit on Zerroth still stands. If a DT hit D3, thank you, sorry that he turned out town. Regardless of whether a DT hit him or not, the inactives felt pressure and posted more. I see no reason to stop the pressure. Vet's: Speak up, be active. You have the privilege of being able to speak out without worrying for your life. This will allow other blues to come out a contribute as the mafia will be avoiding Vets, and at the very least sets up some good wifom shields. Don't forget mason as well. He should be blue hunting. DT will probably need to claim and give some results tomorrow. BGs are always good, and try your best to predict a hit (someone who becomes very vocal at a certain point, someone who catches your eye). Unless a vig feels very vulnerable, I think he should save hits from people like zerroth or D3 and wait for a situation where we KNOW someone is red. But of course, pop it if you are in danger. If jackal is a vet I am worried for what the rest of our vets are like. I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm... When you judge someone, spread it into three parts, and keep them separate. Behavior comes first, then the information available and then clues. Don't disregard them, you just need to develop an eye for them, which I obviously haven't yet -_- If there is no information available about that person, then you can extend the analysis into 2/3 of your opinion. That sheep pic is cruel, but helpful, as it is likely that nemesis is town and not SK. Bum is 0 for 2! | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On January 30 2011 11:24 Coagulation wrote: the only clue i could find http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Jackal58 Steeler picture in profile On January 30 2011 12:06 Coagulation wrote: Steel On January 30 2011 14:01 Coagulation wrote: A vote for jackal is a Vote for TOWN! On January 30 2011 13:09 Coagulation wrote: blocked you say? Kinda like they do in football? STEELers Can we ban Coag from clue analysis? We posts all this then right before the lynch he tells everyone whos voting for jackal that they are mafia. This is a good vig hit, because lynchng him would lead to mindless conversations and hard to interpret WIFOM about coag's play. Looking back, zerroth pointed at the clues on beneather first, so if both he and beneather are red, he has to be bussing. Or he is town. I'd like for you to look again at who you are suggesting to get vig hit, kav. Or at least explain it to we lesser mortals. Im going to look into siniquity, as I have my suspicions, but as for now, please do not make a repeat of yesterday's lynch. Looking at everyone's posts, it's just awful for town to either let mafia create a scenario like that where people start posting clues and let arguements build up over small suggestions. What's worse, is that situation was likely to have been town induced. Do not make yourself a coag. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 02 2011 05:17 Kavdragon wrote: Is this directed at me, someone in particular, or the whole town? I didn't mention Jackal in my earlier post, did you mean Papapanda? Well, you can probably explain it the best. I mean Beneather and Jackal. I see little difference in their posting, and beneather is valuable by his existence and jackal has already made an excuse of why he is still here and will be here, or proved that he is not doing his job. Maybe you've already closely reviewed them both, or you are going on what everyone has said. Why Beneather over Jackal? I know you mentioned that it was unnerving that no one defended jackal, but I doubt that is the only reason. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On February 02 2011 05:39 Jackal58 wrote: I'll accept full responsibility for poor veteran play on my part. Yes I'm new. Yes this is the first time I've had a role other than vanilla townie. Do I see where I've made errors? Yes. Will it improve my play in future games? Of course. Can I change anything I've done up to this point? No. And I have yet to have anybody tell me how a veteran should play. Nor have I seen anything special in the other games I've been in to identify a player as vet. They've all been lynched in the games I've been in. None claimed flat out to be a vet prior to being lynched. Although I do believe either RoL or LSB claimed to be blue without being specific. And without any result. They were still lynched. Town went on to lose. So I claim what I am. I have no prior precedent to look at except lynched Vets. That doesn't help town. So I claim what I am. I don't know if my claim prevented my lynch. But I'm still an extra townie with an extra night life. Alright alright, veteran isn't tough, but I can see where you are coming from. Mafia wins by outnumbering town right? So it controls lynches and hits freely. Town does not lynch scum, then there is a set number of days until mafia wins. Let's forget about SK, and take this game as an example. Mafia have 2kp. 1. 2. 3. GMarshal 4. kitaman27 5. ilovejonn 6. bumatlarge 7. 8. papapanda 9. deconduo - Replaced Pandain 10. Kenpachi 11. Coagulation 12. Kavdragon 13. 14. Jackal58 15. 16. zerroth 17. Mr. Wiggles 18. SiNiquity 19. BrownBear 20. Eti307 21. 22. LunarDestiny 23. Impervious 24. Barundar - Replaced Nfi 25. 26. 27. Divinek 28. CubEdIn 29. darmousseh 30. Beneather 31. 31 players, 9 dead, 5 mafia left. That gives us 17 townies left. Let's say 2 people die tomorrow as well so we are at 15. Now if 2 people die every night and we lynch a townie everyday, we have until Day 7 before we lose. You can imagine with the SK as well this day will come sooner. Now we could lynch flawlessly and SK can hit some mafia, but so far that isn't happening for us. We need townies to buy us time. Medics extend this LYLO (lynch or lose) when they successfully protect someone. This job is pretty tough, because they have to predict who will get hit while staying alive themselves, and still participate in the game so as not to draw suspicion. Veterans have a much easier time. They can be as vocal as possible AND SHOULD BE. They try to get hit. when you are hit, you claim it viola we have a townie. Now there are ways of fakeclaiming this, but there are also ways of checking it, like DTs. You getting hit buys us time and keeps you alive to give your town opinion. In your case, I would have said I was blue, which is the truth. This helps you stay alive, and makes mafia want to hit you if they fear a any of the other roles, and you "do your job". Pretty staright-forward. I'm willing to give jackal a chance, because at worst he is an inexperienced SK, but most likely he actually is a veteran, and it makes sense after looking through his posts that he is a newer blue player. If I see a reference to Big Ben in the day post, he's screwed, and Im going to murder LSB if jackal is town. | ||
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bumatlarge
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I am a detective Night 1: kitaman27 is Medic Night 2: Beneather is Vanilla Town Night 3: LunarDestiny is [black]Serial Killer[/black] | ||
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bumatlarge
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On February 02 2011 12:16 Divinek wrote: kita is dead so.... also this seems to make sense look at the last clue You'd better watch out! I immediately headed back to the camp in order to find help. I grabbed the first person I saw, Deconduo and asked him to help me remove ilovejohn’s body. Deconduo didn’t help me. As soon as he realized that I wanted him to go inside, he fled. He didn’t get two steps before I killed him. Serves him right. There may be dogs about ---------------------------------------------- and then from lunars profile finally something solid to go on. You would be quick to jump on that. You scummy fuck, start giving me posts to work with. | ||
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bumatlarge
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On February 02 2011 12:49 GMarshal wrote: LunarDestiny, are you willing to deal? Town could use a night kill and since you are bullet proof you have nothing to fear from mafia, at this point I think we could offer you survival for a while in exchange for your night kills. (also what does the rest of the town think of this?) Need to hear from Lunar first. And we need to successfully scumhunt. I've got plans. Also, let me point out that beneather isn't 100% it is possible and likely he could be GF. Kav did announce who his BGs were, and mafia probably had time to determine GF on night 1, and a BG is a good candidate. Don't let this stop you from analyzing him but he's got a lot defense right now. He needs to be here giving his opinions and confirming this. And hopefully to further the validity of my claim, every hit has been claimed. There is no way as mafia I'd be able to guess Lunar as SK without hitting him, unless Siniquity and GM were mafia with me. Im willing to bet they are town as well. I'll get to who I am placing my suspicions on in a moment. | ||
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bumatlarge
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On February 02 2011 13:06 Divinek wrote: are you guys for fucking serious? BIG FOS on both of you an SK would never openly admit it and try to bargain with town, where would that get him? sure he'd live a few more days but he could NEVER win. Only mafia could reasonably want to keep an SK alive after they have been identified Mhmm, well he's got nothing to lose, he can do as we say for one night, as mafia is obviously winning at this point. We can't control him, but he's good for at least one night to be pro-town. I'm looking into a few people. These are people I find town as of now. It is also likely that a GF will be in the top three if my suspicions fail. 3. GMarshal 18. SiNiquity 30. Beneather 12. Kavdragon 14. Jackal58 I need analyses of everyone else done among this crew. 8. papapanda 10. Kenpachi 11. Coagulation 14. Jackal58 17. Mr. Wiggles 19. BrownBear 16. zerroth 20. Eti307 23. Impervious 24. Barundar 27. Divinek 28. CubEdIn 29. darmousseh They need to start contributing or provide proof that they have been this game. Once they do that, they can help analyze, and we can really get deeper into this game. I'd really love to know how many Blues we have to work with, maybe it might be time to diverge from using the census on Mafia numbers, Kav. That's one topic to discuss, but right now let's deal with the SK first. | ||
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bumatlarge
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On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote: What the hell is this shit? Analyze the meaning of this dt claim and ask yourself would a town aligned player do this claim. If Bumatlarge is telling the truth: -The final push for this dt claim is detecting that I am SK. But why would a town want to expose the SK. Mafia wouldn't choose to hit this presumed SK and target other town. -If Bumatlarge just want to lynch me, he could just have said that Lunar is SK or Mafia (don't know why he chose the former unless he is mafia and don't want lynching me to affect the presumed mafia count=5). Then the other two pieces of information is useless. What good would exposing the medic do? Nothing except for sparing him as lynch. As of now, claiming that Beneather is vanilla town is pointless since we are not lynching because of his bodyguard status. If you look at another view point that Bumatlarge is mafia and lying: He named me as SK to lynch me. Didn't just say I am mafia because it will bring the presumed mafia count down to 4 and be counter claimed by census. After Deconduo's death, only 1 of the 2 dog profile left is Beneather. Since dog meat is very likely to be a clue. He is trying to protect Beneather. The reason for Kitaman is medic is rolefishing. What he want Kitaman to do? Claim medic? And also the clue pointing at me. Those clues are even less convincing than the clues we found. I ask people to read his dt claim carefully and think of the motive for his claim (is it pro-town or anti-town). | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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bumatlarge
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On February 02 2011 13:31 LunarDestiny wrote: Bumtlarge, directly reply to that post of mine if you are truly town. We have time buddy, 48 hours to figure out what you are going to do and 48 hours for me to answer all the questions you have. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
Alright. Obviously pissed. Analyze the meaning of this dt claim and ask yourself would a town aligned player do this claim. If Bumatlarge is telling the truth: -The final push for this dt claim is detecting that I am SK. But why would a town want to expose the SK. Mafia wouldn't choose to hit this presumed SK and target other town. -If Bumatlarge just want to lynch me, he could just have said that Lunar is SK or Mafia (don't know why he chose the former unless he is mafia and don't want lynching me to affect the presumed mafia count=5). Then the other two pieces of information is useless. What good would exposing the medic do? Nothing except for sparing him as lynch. As of now, claiming that Beneather is vanilla town is pointless since we are not lynching because of his bodyguard status. We have yet to reduce KP. SK has not hit a single mafia according to Kav. Keeping SK is detrimental to town, and we can assume there is only one left. Kita is dead, and Beneather is a big suspect, I'd prefer to clear his name at the same time as exposing the SK. I don't believe mafia would hit him, as he would be a nice shield from a lynch or a vig. If you look at another view point that Bumatlarge is mafia and lying: He named me as SK to lynch me. Didn't just say I am mafia because it will bring the presumed mafia count down to 4 and be counter claimed by census. I am a detective, and you are not mafia, you are an SK. I'm not into the whole ambiguous statement gig. And you seem to be confusing your words? I should claim you as mafia as town so that census can tell me that you were not? You'll have to rephrase this. After Deconduo's death, only 1 of the 2 dog profile left is Beneather. Since dog meat is very likely to be a clue. He is trying to protect Beneather. Because he came back as Town BG. Unless he's GF, this is a red herring. It is possible for him to be a GF. The reason for Kitaman is medic is rolefishing. What he want Kitaman to do? Claim medic? :/ holes upon holes dude. And also the clue pointing at me. Those clues are even less convincing than the clues we found. I didn't point out that clue, Divine did, take this up with him. Looks possible though. I ask people to read his dt claim carefully and think of the motive for his claim (is it pro-town or anti-town). Reducing KP, or keeping this to myself. Sorry GM, lunar told me to. | ||
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bumatlarge
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To help you out Kav, I honestly thought I would check lunar and receive Mason back. I was so certain he had gotten PM rights with you, hence why you said he was on par with BG in worth of being protected. This is what I got. It's not bad for SK to act pro-town. But from what Lunar has posted after my find, he has been completely uncooperative and has yet to refute it in the slightest. We aren't lynching LD to confirm me, we are lynching him to get rid of non-town KP. If you believe LD, then I can not be town. No sitting on the fence here, you have appeared town this whole game, but I can't sit here and let you entertain something that is wrong. | ||
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