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LSB: A tip, if you can figure out what clues I wrote, and which one Node wrote, it could be useful
Just to intrude for a moment here. This is like saying "If you see the difference between what I perceived the inkblots to be, or what Node perceived the inkblots to be then you would have a better chance of figuring out what the inkblots the clues link to.
For example, Node might look at a picture of a Banana and think of monkeys, while LSB would look at the same picture and think of a dick. So half the clues are about a monkey and the other half are about a dick.
Edit: Then the person reading the clues might think of video games (donkey kong) relating to the clue or a picture of a superhero in someones profile.
IE: Your at square one.
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On February 05 2011 13:01 Kenpachi wrote:
ALSOOOOOOOO, FoS on Barundar for just wanting to kill me.
STOP STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS POSTING
OH MY FUCKING GOD...
From now on every time you write something I want you to stop, think about it for around 5 minutes, then decide if it is still a good idea to post that. If you do this I promise you will stop getting lynched as much.
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On February 11 2011 10:47 Kavdragon wrote:
It's about time I joined my faithful BG anyways. GMarshal, you were all I could have asked for in a bodyguard. Except bulletproof. You coulda worked on that aspect.
But yes, I too am interested to see what's special about this post.
I used to have a vest that could help you with that.... trade you for 3$?
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On February 11 2011 14:15 bumatlarge wrote:See kav you are vastly overestimating town here. The second I posted the DT claim, HALF THE TOWN SAID OH OK GOOD WE HAVE A DT, LETS KILL THE SK. People started to doubt you lol. The roleblock thing I was hoping cube would claim but beneather claiming it was a kinda set back and a blessing. If mods didnt say publicly in the thread that LD got a late PM of something and cube claimed it, I would have argued to high heaven to get LD lynched, and then we still would have had 2 KP. Dont think I could have gotten LD lynched? I got you to lynch RoL, didn't I? yeah  [But really I should stop trying to be too pro-active as mafiab, it never helps us... but it's more fun. I simply did the plan, because I didn't want to win by doing nothing. Even if it's why we lost, i don't really regret it, it was more exciting then sitting their watching town go at each other's throat over clues while idly defending myself from kav. Kav was the MVP by far. No one on town came close, and without him, we would still be in the game, everyone would have though me a DT still and I think it would be lylo.
ITS A LIE! You have to be a baller mafia player. Look at Merc Mafia! That game was insane :O
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yeah I never played much TF2. I think I bought it over the holiday sale but only played it for like an hour. Nice job though. I still have that half an analysis written so I will post that and maybe post the other half. I remember incog had a bunch of critiques on it, but I still think its decent.
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Preface: What is analysis?
I wanted to start this guide off by showing you guys how you should be analyzing and reading threads. There is a very distinct difference between the two. But before you can learn to analyze a thread you have to know what you are looking for. Thus I engage in what I refer to as Mafia Profiling. Now this varies from game to game and in each set up you should read it and see if you can draw any conclusions from how the generic mafia member will be acting.
Now in a lot of more generic settings it might be a bit harder to pinpoint experienced mafia players because they will know what you are looking for and attempt to avoid doing it. The thing is a mafia can never perfectly hide among town, because if they did they would actually be contributing and hurting their own team. With experienced players the key is reading between the lines and figuring out, but this guide is not focused on helping you pick out pro players, its meant to give you a guide to figure out what exactly you should be looking for and what factors mold that.
Part 1: Analyzing the rules to develop tells and general mindsets
Most games follow a generally accepted set of rules. No clues, flip reveals, standard roles. In those games the tells remain the same. I would generally look for people being aggressive, show signs of tunnel vision, and the bigger tell for me, ignoring arguments and information and a further extreme of that would be misrepresenting other players points of view also known as a Scarecrow argument.
Now the important part isn't what the tells are, it is why are those the tells and how did I come up with them? The goal is to think how a mafia will think. If the entire mafia team is quiet and doesn't put themselves out there to lead a lynch, then they are sacrificing their control over the towns direction. Knowing that we can assume at ANY given time there is at LEAST one active mafia member. An example would be in XXXV. Annul was the ONLY active mafia for the first days until he died, and after he died Why/Brocket were forced to become more active. This doesn't mean all the mafia will be active, putting 1-2 players out there at a time gives mafia a good representation and could allow the remaining members to lurk/agree and wagon and push it forward allowing the town to fall into a mob mentality dooming themselves.
The next tell I pointed to was tunnel vision. From a mafia perspective tunnel vision is good. It allows you to focus your efforts and your arguments on one person which means you also have less people disagreeing with you, meaning you have more people inclined vote with your opinion because you are accusing less of your potential allies.
To explain that, let's say I am mafia. I want to get Qatol lynched and write up an analysis on him. But for good measure I also write something on BC. When I attack BC it makes him trust me less and therefore less likely to vote for Qatol like I want him to. This example may seem a little extreme. A more realistic example would be me pushing Qatol, someone else suggesting BC and me shrugging that off and pushing Qatol as the more obvious/important lynch.
The last tell I mentioned can be summed up by what Ace said. Mafia isn't about who/what is right. It's about what you can convince people is right. To go a little old school a great example would be Ace vs. DT claim Folca in Mafia III. Folca had Ace with a DT check, but Ace convinced the town it was bullshit so he managed to off a DT before he died. Serious damage control skills.
Now what you might be wondering is what does this have to do with misrepresentation? Or a convenient lapse in literacy? If I was red there could sometimes be certain information I don't want to deal respond to, but I see a weaker point in an argument. I Scarecrow his argument and attack a point he didn't make or attack a much weaker point. In this case, an argument is only as strong as its weakest component, and if you can't find a weak enough component, then fuck it. Make one. The only reason to do this is if you don't believe your case is strong enough to stand on solid facts, which would only really be if you KNEW the person you attacked was not mafia.
Part 2: XXXVI, a setup specific analysis.
Node and LSB's set up has some awesomely unique properties, clues and no death revealing. The mayor role of Census also adds an awesome element to this. But how does this affect the general mafia modus operandi? It gives them a false sense of security which I predict will lead them to a more aggressive style where they aren't as afraid of town backlash due to no flips. What I think the mafia will focus on is heavy clue analysis with a small dose of behavior analysis for good measure. We can also expect a more active and relentless approach since the mayor is the ONLY person who can possibly know if the lynch worked correctly, and even then there is a delay of 24 hours which might let the mafia wiggle out of the spotlight after a successful mislynch. I would predict extreme tunnel vision, aggression, and a heavier emphasis on clue analyzing when accusing people. Another thing I would look for is any attempt to undermine the mayor and any attempt to get him lynched since I would view that as only benefitting the mafia. Although I would definitely keep an eye on the mayor to try and discern if you believe he is disseminating misinformation, or vying for too much power.
Most of the tells I established for this game set I have already went over, IE: Tunneling and aggression. Those will be the same general idea and behavior just to what I believe will be more extreme. I will however go over the newly introduced idea of how they would use and abuse clues, and why.
My view on clues is that they are stupid from an in game perspective. At least to use for hunting mafia in the way they are designed. Clues are like the Rorschach inkblot test. Completely subjective to what the maker see of them, and therefore are unreliable. It's like me trying to guess what you thought of when you saw a picture of a Banana. Maybe the host thought of Donkey Kong while I thought of raging erections. The point being that trying to discern how the clues link to player can be trivial at best and is ONLY really useful late game nail in the coffin analysis. IE: This guy lead the lynch on 3 green guys, tunneled hard, plus a monkey has been killing people and his profile picture is a giant fucking dick, which is obviously a banana metaphor, which monkeys eat. EZ'd.
While this is all great and interesting the fun part comes from the mafia perspective. When someone is mafia you can't escape the feeling of knowing EXACTLY who is innocent and who is not. Barring an SK of course. So doing behavioral analysis becomes very hard because you can see someone say something that you might perceive as scum normally, but secretly knowing it's not has a mafia second guessing himself constantly when he writes something. Hell, when I write a post I might reread it three times to make sure there are no slip ups or obvious shit that I am forcing myself to pretend is a red read.
With clues a mafia member sees a great way to analyze in a WAY more comfortable manner. While a townie will be trying to match clues to players, a mafia will match players to clues. This means that a mafia will stare at someone's profile and see what abstract inferences he can draw to the perceived clues in the day post. This means a lot of the focus of any analysis will generally be on one player which that mafia has distorted their subjective views of the clues to fit this individual. A way to spot this is simple. You read it and you go "How the fuck did they make that connection?" The thing is you might trick yourself into thinking they are just on a whole different level of thinking, but the simpler solution is that they are just red pushing a mislynch in what they think is a convincing townie way, but is in fact.... BULLSHIT!
Part 3: Applying our profile to XXXVI players
Now for the fun part! We have worked up an analysis and figured out what exactly we expect the mafia to be doing. This should allow us to read posts CRITICALLY. What that means is that you are constantly waiting for the signs you know have to show up eventually. A scum player can only hide his colors for so long. If that means you chill back for a day and wait for them to fuck up then do what you have to do, but vigilance is key. You might miss a couple of minor slips if you are newer to analysis but once you see that post that sets off your scumdar and heart begins to race, don't let it go. Begin reading all that persons posts and see if you spot more of the tells we reasoned should exist. As a warning, there is ALWAYS a chance that the player might be green and just said something stupid. So don't force yourself to see something that isn't there. Analyzing involves an extreme level of self control to know when you are forcing yourself to see something that isn't there, and when the truth has just stared you in the eyes.
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I remember that game Qatol. I try not to think about it. Was that the game you were flipped as a tricolor mayor being like a townie/mayor/godfather? I think that was a disgusting game from town perspective but we somehow still won iirc? I might be crossing two games.
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EPT
