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I think it's a pivotal day because we are deciding whether the barundar + paindain duo are mafia or not.
OpZ provides a pretty thorough case against them and Mr wiggles provides a similarly thorough case for them. I already said I'm inclined to think they're town but blind trust is never good.
If they're mafia then they're getting away with everything. If they're town then they might help us win the game. It's the latter statement that I want to talk about.
1. Opz: Firstly OpZ seems to be more likely town than paindain due to his vigi claim. It's very hard to fake a vigi claim or fake counter claim as vigi. Hence I don't think it's likely that opz is lying because the real vigilante would have stood up by now. I don't think at this point anybody suspects opz, except perhaps our B+P duo since he is accusing them. So do you believe OpZ or do you trust Barundar + Paindain?
2. Medic Protection Paindain is soaking up medic protection. Hell if there are two medics they might both be saving him, who knows. Mr Wiggles has made the correct assumption that if Paindain is town, then the mafia will not hit Paindain. However this is not necessarily a good thing since it essentially forces the mafia to kill off the rest of us who may be the medics.
Paindain may already know who the medics are though through PMing everybody. If he does, then he probably isn't mafia, otherwise the medics would be dead. I don't believe any good medic would reveal himself though.
Lastly the obvious waste of medics if Paindain is actually mafia.
3. Roleblocking It's also a fair assessment that Paindain has got everybody's attention and that his DT claim is actually not helping. Why? Because the mafia know who to role block so he is essentially gimped until he gets lynched/killed until someone else claims medic/dt.
That is, if you buy Paindain's story that he's being roleblocked.
Sadly writing this I am realising that if we lynch paindain it won't be as detrimental as it sounds. I'm assuming the worst here, if he's mafia then it'd be a great lynch. If he's not well, what happens? The mafia needs a new target to role block and the medics look for someone else to protect. Essentially the pool of targets gets redistributed. Kinda like a reset button which currently might be a good thing for town. The status quo seems to be thusly: Role blockers go for Paindain, medics go to paindain, mafia go for everybody not Paindain. Eventually there won't be enough townies left to support Paindain, we need to break the stalemate to survive. Does this sound crazy? I guess so. I'll stop now.
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The last part I got carried away. The whole thing breaks down if we can just find the role blocker, then the dt+medic set up will be ftw. I have to say though that after writing that I don't trust Paindain and Barundar as much as I did yesterday.
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Can you all just stfu and vote seraph.
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I don't think it's worth getting all worked up over the pandain situation. It is possible that pandain is mafia, but since everything that's happened can be explained by mafia framing him and he's in general been a protown influence as far as I can tell, we should just keep it in mind.
Now, onto lynch candidates:
Here's the analysis I made of Seraph Day 3.On January 04 2011 08:26 why wrote:b) Seraph! Here is a link to RoL's analysis and to mine. Since the last post, seraph has posted just once, a non-game-related goodbye to annul. Again, the post was a little over an hour after the lynch. So, basically, it goes like this: Day 1: Seraph gets called on looking scummy by RoL and he stops posting until right after the lynch. Day 2: Seraph gets called on looking scummy by me and then he stops posting until right after the lynch. Draw your own conclusions, but he's looks like scum to me.
I think it is still largely true. He also hasn't responded to the analysis. Since then Seraph has misunderstood exactly how roleblocking interacted with the Veteran ability and revealed that he believed that the number of remaining mafia is four and that he didn't realize that the information wasn't released. I don't think either of these facts are definitively town or mafia (I just keep coming up with wifom), but I thought I'd mention them for completeness.
Anyway, I still think he's mafia, so my vote is still on him.
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Oh, also, with regards to the double lynch, I don't really have strong feelings on it either way. I think we have a bunch of possible lynch targets and the double lynch will help us get through them quicker, but I think we might want to save it for when a DT finds a red. I think when that happens the game will open up a bunch because we'll be able to analyze voting patterns and see how people react to the possibility of a frame. Actually, I think I just convinced myself that double lynch is not the way to go for today. I'll change my vote if someone comes up with a more convincing reason for the double lynch.
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If you want to butcher active towns people, atleast start with me instead of the unopposed DT claim...
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Vote Count for Day 4
Votes for ShoCkeyy (3)
DarthThienAn
Barundar
Insanious
Votes for Pandain (1)
ShoCkeyy
Votes for DarthThienAn (1)
~OpZ~
orgolove
Votes for seRapH (6)
Pandain
Mr.Zergling
~OpZ~
Soulfire
why
TheMango
Votes for Double Lynch (5/18)
Pandain
orgolove
Mr.Zergling
~OpZ~
TheMango
Voting ends in 18 hours.
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I think we should wait 1 more day before playing our last double lynch. Our lynch today plus tomorrow plus 2 night actions should leave us all with little doubt as to who we should do on a double.
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Vatican City State1650 Posts
Ugh. Again. I see that we have no counter bandwagon forming vs Seraph. The reds are not worried at all about him dying. I think it points towards seraph -not- being a red. Again - I think we are following Pandain's lead into lynching another green. Why are we still trusting this fool...
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On January 08 2011 02:18 orgolove wrote:
Ugh. Again. I see that we have no counter bandwagon forming vs Seraph. The reds are not worried at all about him dying. I think it points towards seraph -not- being a red. Again - I think we are following Pandain's lead into lynching another green. Why are we still trusting this fool...
Why has this game ground to a halt?
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tree.hugger.... You can only vote for one person lol...
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I suppose I should still post to not get modkilled.
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Vatican City State1650 Posts
... As I said repeatedly, it is less than 12 hours to go, and yet we have not had a single counter bandwagon or a post that defended Seraph. I highly doubt he's red. In their current state, losing even one red would be critical - reds would definitely have jumped to defend him.
And yet you guys just follow pandain's lead. How many more do we have to kill before you ignore his posts. -_- My god. I can just see us loinsg the game even after getting the godfather in the second day.
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I am sick. I haven't been around because I've been in bed for the past few days; I probably still won't be around all that much.
With that said, we don't really need too much more to win at this point. Since OpZ is confirmed all he really needs are the claims of the DTs and the medics to coordinate protection while the town systematically hunts scum. Since town has a pretty big advantage at this point (3 days to lylo; no medic/DT deaths AND a confirmed member to form town circle) there's no need to rush things, just make sure that the important people stay alive. There is no reason to vote double lynch.
I've taken a look at the vote lists and I think we need to revisit the DTA vote tomorrow if we don't do it today. For one he's disappeared again after posting some idle stuff. For another, his alignment should shed into light of whether or not he was saved when the wagon shifted from him to GC. It should give us more info about the people directly on the vote - i.e. Soulfire/tree.hugger/zergling; and then on the GC vote - Mango/Wiggles. I don't think enough has been made of the Day 2 votes either, as Darth was one of the few that remained on orgolove.
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On January 08 2011 06:26 orgolove wrote:
... As I said repeatedly, it is less than 12 hours to go, and yet we have not had a single counter bandwagon or a post that defended Seraph. I highly doubt he's red. In their current state, losing even one red would be critical - reds would definitely have jumped to defend him.
And yet you guys just follow pandain's lead. How many more do we have to kill before you ignore his posts. -_- My god. I can just see us loinsg the game even after getting the godfather in the second day.
I'm not sure I agree that losing one red is critical for them at this point. Going from 4->3 mafia doesn't make a difference in their KP. What I *would* expect if he were red though is for Seraph to pull some sort of crazy stunt to try and live... or maybe he thinks he can shrug it off since there's no defense at all and people will vote elsewhere. I mean, it's possible that you could be mafia doing some sort of soft defend. There's too much WIFOM at this point and an overabundance of targets. Let's take things slow and systematic.
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Vatican City State1650 Posts
On January 08 2011 04:37 seRapH wrote:
I suppose I should still post to not get modkilled.
Would a red really post something like this? -_- Sounds more like a townie being resigned.
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On January 08 2011 06:57 orgolove wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2011 04:37 seRapH wrote:
I suppose I should still post to not get modkilled. Would a red really post something like this? -_- Sounds more like a townie being resigned.
You don't get the point of this game... Reds to make themselves non noticable of course they can post like this...
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Vatican City State1650 Posts
On January 08 2011 08:16 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2011 06:57 orgolove wrote:On January 08 2011 04:37 seRapH wrote:
I suppose I should still post to not get modkilled. Would a red really post something like this? -_- Sounds more like a townie being resigned. You don't get the point of this game... Reds to make themselves non noticable of course they can post like this...
Lol. You don't get the point of this, do you. Even at this point, when we're so close the lynch, we've seen not a single counter bandwagon, nor a single post defending him. Is that not extremely suspicious?
We've already seen ~OpZ~ make a mistake in hitting LSB. And we've also seen that following Pandain's lead flatly killed two townies outright, one of them being blue. And yet all the town is just sheeping along with their claims, without a single bit of hard evidence against them.
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QUOTE]On January 08 2011 08:19 orgolove wrote:
On January 08 2011 08:16 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2011 06:57 orgolove wrote:On January 08 2011 04:37 seRapH wrote:
I suppose I should still post to not get modkilled. Would a red really post something like this? -_- Sounds more like a townie being resigned. You don't get the point of this game... Reds to make themselves non noticable of course they can post like this...
Lol. You don't get the point of this, do you. Even at this point, when we're so close the lynch, we've seen not a single counter bandwagon, nor a single post defending him. Is that not extremely suspicious?
We've already seen ~OpZ~ make a mistake in hitting LSB. And we've also seen that following Pandain's lead flatly killed two townies outright, one of them being blue. And yet all the town is just sheeping along with their claims, without a single bit of hard evidence against them. [/QUOTE]
Well, first I am going to point out the obvious and say that you are defending Seraph. Also, it would be useful for you to suggest an alternative (or at least justify your choice of Darth) if don't think Seraph is scum.
I honestly still think that Seraph is mafia, I think he's been acting so scummy all game he isn't really in a position to defend himself at the moment because in the past all he's done is ignore any attack or respond to it extremely late (like after the current lynch). If he defends himself now, it will be such a departure from past behavior that he'll just end up seeming guilty and we will lynch him anyway. His best defense at the moment is to hope that the lack of defense is enough of a defense to keep him from being lynched.
However, you are correct in that if things go as they are now we are going to get basically no information from this lynch, since it isn't really close at the moment and people aren't talking about why they are doing what they are doing. There are a lot of people who voted without any real explanation as to why. Mr. Wiggles, Jackel58, tree.hugger, themango, and ilovejohn have all voted without any explanation. Even if you don't have anything new to add, just say why you are voting for them over the other candidates in your own words (today the main ones are Seraph, Shockeyy and Darth). This is a prime way to generate some discussion and assess how good people's reasons are for voting. Everyone should be posting a reason for their vote in thread, and should even be defending it in thread if it gets attacked (as orgolove is doing right now to all Seraph voters).
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EBWOP: Oh wow, that came out completely wrong. Here's a prettier looking version of the above post.
On January 08 2011 08:19 orgolove wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2011 08:16 ShoCkeyy wrote:On January 08 2011 06:57 orgolove wrote:On January 08 2011 04:37 seRapH wrote:
I suppose I should still post to not get modkilled. Would a red really post something like this? -_- Sounds more like a townie being resigned. You don't get the point of this game... Reds to make themselves non noticable of course they can post like this... Lol. You don't get the point of this, do you. Even at this point, when we're so close the lynch, we've seen not a single counter bandwagon, nor a single post defending him. Is that not extremely suspicious? We've already seen ~OpZ~ make a mistake in hitting LSB. And we've also seen that following Pandain's lead flatly killed two townies outright, one of them being blue. And yet all the town is just sheeping along with their claims, without a single bit of hard evidence against them.
Well, first I am going to point out the obvious and say that you are defending Seraph. Also, it would be useful for you to suggest an alternative (or at least justify your choice of Darth) if don't think Seraph is scum.
I honestly still think that Seraph is mafia, I think he's been acting so scummy all game he isn't really in a position to defend himself at the moment because in the past all he's done is ignore any attack or respond to it extremely late (like after the current lynch). If he defends himself now, it will be such a departure from past behavior that he'll just end up seeming guilty and we will lynch him anyway. His best defense at the moment is to hope that the lack of defense is enough of a defense to keep him from being lynched.
However, you are correct in that if things go as they are now we are going to get basically no information from this lynch, since it isn't really close at the moment and people aren't talking about why they are doing what they are doing. There are a lot of people who voted without any real explanation as to why. Mr. Wiggles, Jackel58, tree.hugger, themango, and ilovejohn have all voted without any explanation. Even if you don't have anything new to add, just say why you are voting for them over the other candidates in your own words (today the main ones are Seraph, Shockeyy and Darth). This is a prime way to generate some discussion and assess how good people's reasons are for voting. Everyone should be posting a reason for their vote in thread, and should even be defending it in thread if it gets attacked (as orgolove is doing right now to all Seraph voters).
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EPT
