|
I honestly don't feel that strongly that either LSB or annul are mafia.
This started out as annul's analysis of LSB based on a gut feeling.
+ Show Spoiler +On December 29 2010 07:43 annul wrote:
i do not play this game RNG. if this game was entirely RNG then what is the point of playing at all, of analysis, etc?
i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based.
Granted annul's analysis can make sense, and I initially agreed with it, I did not agree with his conclusions of LSB being mafia based on spamminess and some advice he gave. I don't think there is strong enough a case to take out LSB now, and annul's tunneling of him and his aggression hasn't really done much to sway my own opinion.
I think we should find someone else to lynch right now, and come back to LSB if he cannot "prove beyond a reasonable doubt" that he is blue once day 2 starts.
Other people we may want to consider:
Seraph based on RoL's analysis.
Brocket based on the strategy of going for lurkers day 1
I'm also not sure what to think of pandain right now based on his recent posts pertaining to the LSB and annul situation.
|
On December 29 2010 08:47 bumatlarge wrote:I am curious as to how people are shifting votes around together very smoothly. Im sure RoL gave a relatively similar arguement on seraph and it pittered out. Now insanious points brocket very reasonably and 5 people shift their votes? Im actually itching to see what LSB would pop now... Sorry if you are a vig buddy  Few reasons why.
For starters seraph is an active and experienced town player, so losing him as a town sucks. The more experienced players like LSB, seraph, RoL, tree.hugger etc... live longer the better shot town has.
Next Brocket is posting vastly different then he did in Pokemafia, which points out different behaviour between his town play and his play now.
As well, Brocket is not a strong town voice, meaning between losing Brocket and LSB, Brocket hurts less.
Finally, most people have read the case for not lynching LSB now that wasn't there when RoL brough up seraph. Meaning now people are looking for a way to switch off of LSB. There wasn't a good candidate to switch to before brocket.
Annul is town
Seraph is experience
d3 is being voted for by pandrain when no one is really listening to now
Then there is Brocket, random inactive who is playing vastly different then he did when he was town. Best choice offered.
If there was someone better to vote for I would, and I will be the first to vote LSB come day 3 if he doesn't prove that he is blue.
|
I want to make it clear that the Brocket vote is based on him posting 10+ times in the first 24 hours of pokemafia as a town, and only once in 48 hours here.
Brocket is NOT playing like he did in Pokemafia and that is fishy as he was town there... So he is something different now.
|
On December 29 2010 09:00 Insanious wrote:
I want to make it clear that the Brocket vote is based on him posting 10+ times in the first 24 hours of pokemafia as a town, and only once in 48 hours here.
Brocket is NOT playing like he did in Pokemafia and that is fishy as he was town there... So he is something different now.
Bad reason why. There are so many reasons people act differently. There can be RL issues, he's just trying something new, and just add the fact that its the holidays and he's probably on vacation.
Never should town lynch a total inactive. Town needs to be going after the lurkers, not the inactives. Not only do we gain nothing from Brockett's list, but add the fact that there are better people who are either showing signs of true scum or are seeming to contribute without actually contributing, unlike Brockett who isn't doing either. Scum usually want to seem to contribute.
Not to mention that just because he has a different posting style(which could just be because he's busy) is no reason to actually lynch someone when we have people like LSB who if you really don't think is scum perhaps then you should fully read my analysis  .
LSB knows better than to lynch someone like this, I believe you know better than to lynch someone like this.
|
On December 29 2010 09:09 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 09:00 Insanious wrote:
I want to make it clear that the Brocket vote is based on him posting 10+ times in the first 24 hours of pokemafia as a town, and only once in 48 hours here.
Brocket is NOT playing like he did in Pokemafia and that is fishy as he was town there... So he is something different now. Never should town lynch a total inactive. Town needs to be going after the lurkers, not the inactives. Not only do we gain nothing from Brockett's list, but add the fact that there are better people who are either showing signs of true scum or are seeming to contribute without actually contributing, unlike Brockett who isn't doing either. Scum usually want to seem to contribute.
Isn't Brockett lurking? He didn't contribute anything at all with his 1 post
|
On December 29 2010 09:12 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 09:09 Pandain wrote:On December 29 2010 09:00 Insanious wrote:
I want to make it clear that the Brocket vote is based on him posting 10+ times in the first 24 hours of pokemafia as a town, and only once in 48 hours here.
Brocket is NOT playing like he did in Pokemafia and that is fishy as he was town there... So he is something different now. Never should town lynch a total inactive. Town needs to be going after the lurkers, not the inactives. Not only do we gain nothing from Brockett's list, but add the fact that there are better people who are either showing signs of true scum or are seeming to contribute without actually contributing, unlike Brockett who isn't doing either. Scum usually want to seem to contribute. Isn't Brockett lurking? He didn't contribute anything at all with his 1 post
No he's inactive. That's different from lurking. Lurkers are those who follow the thread but don't post, or who post but don't contribute. Brockett is just inactive.
I'm still up for a D_3 lynch, but since that doesn't seem to happen anytime soon I guess I'll settle with LSB.
|
On December 29 2010 09:13 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 09:12 LSB wrote:On December 29 2010 09:09 Pandain wrote:On December 29 2010 09:00 Insanious wrote:
I want to make it clear that the Brocket vote is based on him posting 10+ times in the first 24 hours of pokemafia as a town, and only once in 48 hours here.
Brocket is NOT playing like he did in Pokemafia and that is fishy as he was town there... So he is something different now. Never should town lynch a total inactive. Town needs to be going after the lurkers, not the inactives. Not only do we gain nothing from Brockett's list, but add the fact that there are better people who are either showing signs of true scum or are seeming to contribute without actually contributing, unlike Brockett who isn't doing either. Scum usually want to seem to contribute. Isn't Brockett lurking? He didn't contribute anything at all with his 1 post No he's inactive. That's different from lurking. Lurkers are those who follow the thread but don't post, or who post but don't contribute. Brockett is just inactive. I'm still up for a D_3 lynch, but since that doesn't seem to happen anytime soon I guess I'll settle with LSB.
The difference is that inactives will forget to vote and will get modkillled.
Brockett won't do that. He's a lurker
|
On December 29 2010 09:09 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 09:00 Insanious wrote:
I want to make it clear that the Brocket vote is based on him posting 10+ times in the first 24 hours of pokemafia as a town, and only once in 48 hours here.
Brocket is NOT playing like he did in Pokemafia and that is fishy as he was town there... So he is something different now. Bad reason why. There are so many reasons people act differently. There can be RL issues, he's just trying something new, and just add the fact that its the holidays and he's probably on vacation. Never should town lynch a total inactive. Town needs to be going after the lurkers, not the inactives. Not only do we gain nothing from Brockett's list, but add the fact that there are better people who are either showing signs of true scum or are seeming to contribute without actually contributing, unlike Brockett who isn't doing either. Scum usually want to seem to contribute. Not to mention that just because he has a different posting style(which could just be because he's busy) is no reason to actually lynch someone when we have people like LSB who if you really don't think is scum perhaps then you should fully read my analysis . LSB knows better than to lynch someone like this, I believe you know better than to lynch someone like this. Brocket is lurking not inactive he votes and posted no mod kill. His posting style is very different I mean if he doesn't have enough time to login in 48 hours he shouldn't be playing this.
LHell in pokemafia 4 of the 6 mafia only voted never posted. Only two mafia were active. So no, mafia aren't usually active. Hell not voting inactives was the reason we lost pokemafia we only voted active players and we just killed all the useful town. I don't want to reapet that here.
Brocket is posting different exacrlt like a mafia in pokemafia and in pokemafia the mafia won. He hasdnt played a lot of mafia games so that might have been hius only or his best reference for good mafia pkay.
He is lurking, won't be mod killed. He is lurking, not inactive. He is posting like a pokemafia mafia... He just seems more red to me then LSB
|
On December 29 2010 08:58 Insanious wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 08:47 bumatlarge wrote:I am curious as to how people are shifting votes around together very smoothly. Im sure RoL gave a relatively similar arguement on seraph and it pittered out. Now insanious points brocket very reasonably and 5 people shift their votes? Im actually itching to see what LSB would pop now... Sorry if you are a vig buddy Few reasons why. For starters seraph is an active and experienced town player, so losing him as a town sucks. The more experienced players like LSB, seraph, RoL, tree.hugger etc... live longer the better shot town has. Next Brocket is posting vastly different then he did in Pokemafia, which points out different behaviour between his town play and his play now. As well, Brocket is not a strong town voice, meaning between losing Brocket and LSB, Brocket hurts less. Finally, most people have read the case for not lynching LSB now that wasn't there when RoL brough up seraph. Meaning now people are looking for a way to switch off of LSB. There wasn't a good candidate to switch to before brocket. Annul is town Seraph is experience d3 is being voted for by pandrain when no one is really listening to now Then there is Brocket, random inactive who is playing vastly different then he did when he was town. Best choice offered. If there was someone better to vote for I would, and I will be the first to vote LSB come day 3 if he doesn't prove that he is blue.
This is a good enough reason for me to change my vote to brocket. Also, on my lurking, I often don't feel the need to post if I fell I do not have anything to contribute to analysis. This is especially compounded by this being the first day.
|
Lemme sum up why brocket should be lynched "ZOMFG, he's posting different than in the last game he played!!111!!! He mus be red lynch himmm!!!111!!!... correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this brocket's second game? Isn't it to early to apply metagame?
|
On December 29 2010 09:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Lemme sum up why brocket should be lynched "ZOMFG, he's posting different than in the last game he played!!111!!! He mus be red lynch himmm!!!111!!!... correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this brocket's second game? Isn't it to early to apply metagame? and the reason why we should vote for LSB being "Annul says he is red. HE IS RED!!!! KILL HIM!!!" Is any better?
At least Brocket logic is Brocket is playing exactly like the mafia in the mafia game he last played. Is better logic then LSB spammed and is therefore scum...
|
On December 29 2010 09:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Lemme sum up why brocket should be lynched "ZOMFG, he's posting different than in the last game he played!!111!!! He mus be red lynch himmm!!!111!!!... correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this brocket's second game? Isn't it to early to apply metagame?
Apply metagame to your analysis of me. Eh? Something doesn't jive.
|
United States1967 Posts
On December 29 2010 09:32 Insanious wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 09:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Lemme sum up why brocket should be lynched "ZOMFG, he's posting different than in the last game he played!!111!!! He mus be red lynch himmm!!!111!!!... correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this brocket's second game? Isn't it to early to apply metagame? and the reason why we should vote for LSB being "Annul says he is red. HE IS RED!!!! KILL HIM!!!" Is any better? At least Brocket logic is Brocket is playing exactly like the mafia in the mafia game he last played. Is better logic then LSB spammed and is therefore scum...
Annul may have started on LSB with that logic, but the way that LSB defended himself is highly suspect to me and is the reason why I voted for him. Your reasoning on brocket is weaker, though not totally without merit. However, like meapak said, the sample size is really small + it's the holidays + its only day1.
|
On December 29 2010 09:32 Insanious wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 09:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Lemme sum up why brocket should be lynched "ZOMFG, he's posting different than in the last game he played!!111!!! He mus be red lynch himmm!!!111!!!... correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this brocket's second game? Isn't it to early to apply metagame? and the reason why we should vote for LSB being "Annul says he is red. HE IS RED!!!! KILL HIM!!!" Is any better? At least Brocket logic is Brocket is playing exactly like the mafia in the mafia game he last played. Is better logic then LSB spammed and is therefore scum...
Actually I'm voting LSB becuse I had suspicions of LSB before Annul even started posting, when he came out with his comments and several people agreed with him it validated my concerns. LSB's defense has only cemented my view of him. More concerns I have is that LSB claims a blue and everyone believes him when it's the oldest trick in the book for a mafia about to get lynched. Another thing I don't like is how all of a sudden people are crawling out of the wood work to accuse people who really haven't done anything to bring suspicion on them other than acting like disinterested townies who are disapointed they didn't get a blue or red role. The case against brocket feels like a mafia attempt to pull votes and save LSB. In short, LSB had me suspicious at the start and has only gotten redder as the game has gone on.
|
On December 29 2010 09:33 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 09:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Lemme sum up why brocket should be lynched "ZOMFG, he's posting different than in the last game he played!!111!!! He mus be red lynch himmm!!!111!!!... correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this brocket's second game? Isn't it to early to apply metagame? Apply metagame to your analysis of me. Eh? Something doesn't jive.
I don't even know what this post means???? However you are playing similarly enough to HP mafia that if I was to apply a metagame argument I'd say you're scum. However I've not played enough games with you to make that call so I'm basing my position instead on the current game.
|
2 Minutes left? Good enough.
FOS RoL, Pandain and OpZ
Strangely they tried to divert the lynch off of OpZ
RoL and Pandain have been fishing my role hard
FOS Meapak and Annul
Annul with his horrid analysis and tunneling a blue
Meapak because he's been playing very weirdly and more of a yes man
|
PMS with doctorH
He's either Red or the DT. Medics please protect him
+ Show Spoiler +All right, if you don't want to share your results, fine.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
you could read my posts in the thread to know that
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From LSB:
Wait...
So what do you think the DTs should do with their results? Nothing?
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
i dont even see the point in that
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From LSB:
What about the everyone post in the thread at the same time idea?
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
and im not against dt's checking inactives, i'm against them claiming/publicly announcing their finds
+ Show Spoiler +If he's new, he's probably not red, as he's posting way to much for a newbie mafia.
Interesting that you're bringing up such a big deal about this. It actually leads me to believe that I'm on the right track.
Yo, my plans are gold, pure gold when I'm town. And I tell you, this plan is pure gold.
DTs are a great way to sort through the inactives. Just look at Pokemafia. Sure we might be able to pick off Kavdragon and DC with analysis, but there was wayyy to much inactives to deal with everyone.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
It's too early to say but Mr.Wiggles seems to good to be true. I think he's more likely mafia than a smurf.
Information that can not be ignored? lol it's 100% absolutely inconclusive and irrelevant, it is just speculation that can't be built upon so thinking about it is a waste of time. most hypothetical "scumtells" are a complete waste of time.
No I think talking about the framer role is important becuase it's just another reason we shouldn't worship DT's and Blues. RoL is right, analysis is much better and more important and trying to get DT's to claim is just stupid. No I don't think you're scum, you always have a stupid plan it seems when you're town.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From LSB:
Just saying, your little "let's discuss" the framers wasn't very informative either. I'll keep an eye out on Lunar Destiny then
Mr. Wiggles doesn't seem to be a smurf. His posting history is ligit. I'm getting a green read from him.
As for your replacement... It's not a scumtell, yet it is information that can't be ignored.
Common, you guys should have known something was up when L suddenly entered Insane when he hadn't played for ages.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From DoctorHelvetica:
Not much really, but
On December 27 2010 14:17 LunarDestiny wrote:
Since there are many new players in the game, they will probably base their night actions, if they have blue roles, on advices of others.
Pandain did give out many good advices but I'll nitpick this one:
Show nested quote +
I like the idea that vig's shot should be decided by town. Unless vigs are veteran, the town are better figuring out who is scum. Also, shots from vigs aren't wasted if more than one shots at the same person are made.
I also want to discuss should vigs use their shots early to try to get lucky and kill mafia? Reducing mafia KP is very important and we also have two double lynch to compensate for lack of vig in the later in the game.
Just because it sounds like something I'd say if I were mafia to pretend i'm participating.
Also Mr.Wiggles seems almost too "informed" for a newbie, which makes me worry.
Also you're too smart to honestly believe that me being a replacement is a scumtell, are you serious?
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From LSB:
Hey, what was scummy about LunarDestiny?
|
On December 29 2010 09:41 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 29 2010 09:32 Insanious wrote:On December 29 2010 09:26 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Lemme sum up why brocket should be lynched "ZOMFG, he's posting different than in the last game he played!!111!!! He mus be red lynch himmm!!!111!!!... correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this brocket's second game? Isn't it to early to apply metagame? and the reason why we should vote for LSB being "Annul says he is red. HE IS RED!!!! KILL HIM!!!" Is any better? At least Brocket logic is Brocket is playing exactly like the mafia in the mafia game he last played. Is better logic then LSB spammed and is therefore scum... Actually I'm voting LSB becuse I had suspicions of LSB before Annul even started posting, when he came out with his comments and several people agreed with him it validated my concerns. LSB's defense has only cemented my view of him. More concerns I have is that LSB claims a blue and everyone believes him when it's the oldest trick in the book for a mafia about to get lynched. Another thing I don't like is how all of a sudden people are crawling out of the wood work to accuse people who really haven't done anything to bring suspicion on them other than acting like disinterested townies who are disapointed they didn't get a blue or red role. The case against brocket feels like a mafia attempt to pull votes and save LSB. In short, LSB had me suspicious at the start and has only gotten redder as the game has gone on.
But, he has offered to prove that he is indeed a blue role by night 2, thus if he can not satisfactorily prove that, he dies.
|
PMs with RoL+ Show Spoiler +The mystery intrigues me. I will give you your salvation, because I can always kill you later.
Also you have to be a DT now. If you can give me your evidence by the START of night 1 it means you only have 2 roles you could be. A medic (which you are sure you will do a successful protect) or a DT where you are guaranteed some amount of information.
You will get your stay of execution, but I will have you killed if you don't follow through. I know the general mafia claim strategy. Try to make people forget and focus on "better" targets always staving off that "sure" kill.
But I don't forget Mr. LSB. I never forget.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From LSB:
You see. I don't go around telling people my role.
You already learned that from Harry potter mafia. The reason why I ordered a double stack on you in Harry Potter Mafia was because you hinted that you had an extra life.
I will give people proof at the start of night 2. If I do not provide the proof, just bomb me or Vig hit me.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From RebirthOfLeGenD:
So your not a mad hatter, lets narrow this down. Give me your role and your plan in the next PM or I am just going to put the last nail in your coffin. Right now I think you could be blue or red, I am just trying to see how you are going to make sense of this. I want a reason to kill someone else just give me something.
But seriously, I don't have much time left to write up a post and convince people so I need your plan and your role now, or we will find out in 7 hours.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From LSB:
I'll just say my role is one of the four
1. Vigi
2. Doctor
3. Vet
4. DT
Each I can think of a way to prove my role. Some more shaky, but I guarantee I will be able to prove my role.
Lynching a blue is stupid anyways. I don't expect you to do that.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From RebirthOfLeGenD:
Then expect yourself to die. Do you honestly think I am red? If you don't claim to me I can't save you. Honestly how many people in this game right now do you think can take the focus off of you and put it on someone else? Give me some sense to keep you alive and I will make it happen.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From LSB:
I'm not going to roleclaim... you know better than to expect me to do that.
But this is one of my good plans
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From RebirthOfLeGenD:
So what role can you prove by day 2? That is impossible. Nothing can be proven in this game. If I don't hear a damn good reason/plan I am getting behind your lynch. I have work in 3 hours and when I get back you will be dead so I need an answer asap.
|
What town needs to do
1) DTs check the inactives. There is a lot this game. Most of the activity comes from a few people. Although it may seem like the thread moves fast, there are a lot of people not posting
2) Check out Annul, Meapak, RoL and Pandain a bit more closely
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
