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annul
United States2841 Posts
if there is a "99%" chance he is mafia, the only thing you can gain is 1% certainty by waiting. in exchange for this 1% certainty, assume we attack someone on RNG basis. we give up 80% certainty today and, in exchange for ONE PERCENT chance to save a blue, we take a ~33% chance of randoming a "different" blue. an actual blue. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On December 29 2010 07:39 annul wrote: you do not seem to understand math if there is a "99%" chance he is mafia, the only thing you can gain is 1% certainty by waiting. in exchange for this 1% certainty, assume we attack someone on RNG basis. we give up 80% certainty today and, in exchange for ONE PERCENT chance to save a blue, we take a ~33% chance of randoming a "different" blue. an actual blue. Look at your reasoning for I'm mafia. It literally is "I feel that he is mafia". You have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. IE RNG. That's 20% btw, a lot lower than 99% | ||
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Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 07:39 annul wrote: you do not seem to understand math if there is a "99%" chance he is mafia, the only thing you can gain is 1% certainty by waiting. in exchange for this 1% certainty, assume we attack someone on RNG basis. we give up 80% certainty today and, in exchange for ONE PERCENT chance to save a blue, we take a ~33% chance of randoming a "different" blue. an actual blue. He isn't 99% mafia, you are just blinded... to me its like a 20% chance of him being red, and 80% chance of him being blue. I would rather wait. You sound just like Brocket in Pokemafia... blinded and not looking at things around you. There is no 99% chance of being mafia as LSB hasn't slipped up, so there is something like a 20% chance of being a red. You need to calm down, and wait.... its what is best for town, there is no sure red here, there is just a possible scum maybe. and for the chance to save a blue, I'd rather wait... | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based. | ||
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Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 07:43 annul wrote: i do not play this game RNG. if this game was entirely RNG then what is the point of playing at all, of analysis, etc? i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based. But feelings mean very little without proof, and you haven't posted any. Your whole argument is "he is spammy therefore mafia". He hasn't slipped up in this game, and as such there is no proof except a feeling. Your feeling is the same as RNG. There are probably 6 mafia (as in most 30 player games there are 6 mafia...) so your feeling is the same as just randomly picking one of 30 people giving you a 20% chance of hitting a mafia. If LSB is telling the truth we only have to wait 2 days, and in those two days we might find another mafia, this helps the town, as does saving a blue. Holding off on lynching LSB for 2 days simply defers a lynch and doesn't hurt the town pretty much at all... | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On December 29 2010 07:39 annul wrote: you do not seem to understand math if there is a "99%" chance he is mafia, the only thing you can gain is 1% certainty by waiting. in exchange for this 1% certainty, assume we attack someone on RNG basis. we give up 80% certainty today and, in exchange for ONE PERCENT chance to save a blue, we take a ~33% chance of randoming a "different" blue. an actual blue. On November 18 2010 10:45 Pandain wrote: Agreed LSB, and again, that just proves furthormore what shoudl be obvious by now, Glasse is frickin lying. For example, I've shown that really the only two-three cases are either 1.Me and Coag are mafia(again, you did bring up he voted me pretty darn quick.) 2.Glasse is mafia alone or even 3.Glasse and Coag are mafia(coag protected glasse, glasse MCED him.) Lynching Glasse is the safest choice in all of those, especially when you start to use your noggin  . Sounds familiar? Someone telling us to ignore all the cases because they are so so sure that someone is red. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On December 29 2010 07:43 annul wrote: i do not play this game RNG. if this game was entirely RNG then what is the point of playing at all, of analysis, etc? i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based. All right then. How are your "feelings" 100% pointing to mafia? Have you compared my current play to my previous play? Have you considered if I actually was mafia, how I would act? | ||
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Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
That guy is just playing so differently from Pokemafia, that he one of the few people in this game that actually make me think scum, To me, Annul = Green LSB = Blue So neither is a good vote. I want to hit someone else, and Brocket screams red due to the whole: Pokemafia: Had over 10 posts in the first 24 hours - Was green Mafia XXXV: Has 1(ish) post in the first 48 hours - is ? This is just so stupidly different then before, that he is obviously a different role. Blues will try to help the town by talking here and there, mafia are more likely to lurk and go under the radar IMHO. I'm voting Brocket now, because we need to get votes off LSB and I'd rather kill someone more likely to be RED, then just a random inactive... Either that, or someone needs to give me someone active to vote for that isn't LSB or Annul both are bad lynches right now. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
unless something actually changes, you all have my case, you all have LSB's case. you all have what has transpired to go through. go forth and vote, we have 3.75 hours | ||
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Soulfire
United States237 Posts
But yeah, Pandain really strikes me as a mafia trying to save LSB - but then again, is there any way to protect someone WITHOUT appearing suspicious? Atleast he presents a logical argument. If LSB does not "prove himself", LYNCH HIM ON DAY 2. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
what is with this push for brocket all of a sudden? what has brocket even done? stop going off target. LSB is a much better kill than brocket. | ||
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why
United States215 Posts
I also like RoL's analysis of Seraph, and I'm worried that Seraph hasn't responded to it yet. He may just be hoping to ride the suspicion out and hope we forget about it given that it's been several pages since the analysis was posted. | ||
TheMango
United States1967 Posts
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
Im actually itching to see what LSB would pop now... Sorry if you are a vig buddy  | ||
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Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 08:39 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm getting a strong sense like there is an attempt to save LSB underway right now. We've had several different attempts to switch attention to people who I don't feel are remotely suspicious (i.e opz or brocket). These people are lurkers but I don't think they are overtly scummy. This really feels like a last minute attempt by the mafia to take the heat of LSB. LSB is playing similar to how he did in Pokemafia. Where he was the strongest town voice and a townie. Not to mention lynching him later is better for the town as it can save a blue and lynching him now won't reduce KP so we won't lose less town. Brocket was a vocal town voice with the highest posts in Pokemafia. He was town, now in this mafia he is not posting at all. He is lurking which isn't something he does, and was vocal against lurkers in Pokemafia. To me this makes Brocket seem red, where LSB has claimed blue. To me this is a lynch of a possible mafia to save a blue... Brocket is fishy, LSB is possibly one of the strongest town players. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
He's made only one post. While LSB and Insanious claim that that shows he is inactive, and therefore mafia, all it really proves is its inactive. Just because he seems different from his normal posting(and he's only played one game? And only made one post thus far?) doesn't give a good indication that he's mafia. Note that the lynches are trying to be diverted in the last 3 hours. And 5 votes in a row, all in a rush. And alot of these people have just suddenly changed their mind. Take Jackal. On December 29 2010 04:49 Jackal58 wrote: What analysis? So far - annul: Yes you are. LSB: No I'm not. annul: Yes you are LSB: No I'm not. Ad nauseum. You both look scummy. It seems one or both of you has volunteered to get thrown under the bus. Thinks LSB is scummy. Plus he's made about 5 posts all about how The mango is scum. This change is very suspicious. What we're doing is lynching an inactive instead of lynching either the active scum or the lurkers/CNC'rs. What finally changed my mind(besides the bandwagon) to vote LSB again, however, is that he wanted to lynch me. Now if he were blue, then he would be in the mindset "omg scum want me lynched." However, I was advocating for him to survive at least another day, and he begins to accuse me of being scum. That just doesn't fit. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On December 29 2010 08:47 bumatlarge wrote: I am curious as to how people are shifting votes around together very smoothly. Im sure RoL gave a relatively similar arguement on seraph and it pittered out. Now insanious points brocket very reasonably and 5 people shift their votes? Im actually itching to see what LSB would pop now... Sorry if you are a vig buddy Because Brocket posted only once, and people realize if we don't deal with inactives, the town will lose. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On December 29 2010 08:39 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I'm getting a strong sense like there is an attempt to save LSB underway right now. We've had several different attempts to switch attention to people who I don't feel are remotely suspicious (i.e opz or brocket). These people are lurkers but I don't think they are overtly scummy. This really feels like a last minute attempt by the mafia to take the heat of LSB. Go read the thread. I claimed blue. Of course there is a strong attempt to divert the lynch | ||
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