|
And the two people that I'm most concerned about for being pretty much inactive are Divinek and BC.
Divinek, where the f are you. Your definitely used to post way more than you are now. I remember the game when I first started, you completely hated me for being "inactive", and now its on you. I know when you are town, you post good stuff. And now? I'm actually gonna agree with Fish here and say that you are one of my scum canidates.
And BC. Every single game I've been on the opposite side of you, and I suspect its no different here. You haven't posted at all lately, and if you have, it hasn't been profound. You did this all the time as mafia. Even as ninja, you posted more. The only time I remember you posting much when youre mafia is when youre defending yourself, and unfortunately, only Fish has accused you, and without much to go on.
I'm inclined to say that BC and Divinek are more suspicious than Fish at this point. Unfortunately.
|
Sorry, I wasn't able to/won't be able to post a good post until tonight. I did read through the posts though, and I'm down for a deconduo lynch. Analysis has been done already- so voting on the high possibility that he is CC mafia + posting not really helpful.
##Vote deconduo
|
Ok, so I missed out on a lot since I last posted (like a completely vanished from the face of the earth -.-), and I’ll put what I think about the situation. Oh, also, prob won’t post until Sunday
@Cube I think that Cube is most likely SK.
Cube is stupid. Really stupid. And I get a really bad vibe from him. He contradicts himself many times. He continues to say that we need to prove deconduo100%. There’s no way that we could do that without killing him.
1st Post (Cube’s fake claim) He thinks that he’s the most important person in the game. He doesn’t want to risk dying in order to save someone. Now, the wording on this post is interesting. 1) “I have weird head issues”- I have no idea why he would want to post this at all. 2) “I may do either of the following” his wording is really weird- it seems like he claims that it will randomly choose every day. 3) “Not the most helpful in the game”- once we figure out what kind of doctor, it definitely could be helpful. Paranoid acts like a roleblocker, weak can guarantee a mafia kill.
2nd Post Another scummy post. 1) “I was hoping to give the Mafia a reason not to hit me”- continues to think that he’s the most important person in the game. 2) “risk of killing someone -> good for mafia”- bad logic? Mafia always has a risk of killing someone? 3) “They basically have no reason not to hit me”- Uh, yeah they do now. You just said you’re too afraid to use your power. Contradiction. 4) “I’ll help you”- contradiction again. His entire reasoning day 1 he claims is that he doesn’t want to die; now he wants to die?
3rd Post Seems like hes not paying attention to what is happening, like a townie would do :/
4th Post 1) Picks out grammar- like its important when it really isn’t. 2) “they just don’t work as they should”- its not like we didn’t know that- we knew that they wouldn’t be normal as it was in the OP
5th Post I think I’m just confused…
6th Post 1) “fake claiming would be… leading the town to believe that my role is something different than it is”- you did- you claimed that role did something extra; that’s different that what it is 2) “Explain how this would make me a more efficient Mafia”- it would lead to another excuse not to use your power… 3) “I hoped that Mafia wouldn’t reread the rules”- uhh, why not? Your logic on this is that they wouldn’t because they didn’t pick doctor. I reread the rules all the time just to make sure of things- that doesn’t make me not mafia. Actually, I knew you were lying about the bad doctor part right away before I read BC’s post without even looking at the OP again. That’s just bad logic
7th Post 1) our entire discussion before from LSB was that we probably don’t have the JOAT role.
And it goes on and on and on
I still think we can use him as a medic- if we can figure out what kind he is. I suggest he protects deconduo- mafia has a reason to kill deconduo tonight, as he is siding with the town as of now- if hes paranoid, he would roleblock deconduo’s shot that he said he would fire- if naive weak, then deconduo will probably die (theres no way to guarantee this)- if hes weak- then Cube will die.
@deconduo situation He agreed that he would use his day vig to survive today’s lynch. We can use that as many pointed out. Deconduo would need to help the town since if mafia makes it lylo, and town loses, deconduo loses too. So the best course of action for deconduo is to help the town until we get a few of the mafia lynched. That means we can use/trust him for a while.
@BC BC being active day 2 is unusual. He did that in my other mafia game with him where he was mafia, where he didn’t post at all basically day 1, and then day 2, he emerged and completely piled on someone who was being scummy but not mafia, as seen with Cube. Just an FoS on BC. Don’t really want to go into analysis.
@LSB I’m still following the analysis on this guy. Not positive on any of this on him, since at first I believed him to be mafia, but now, I’m questioning.
@Fishball He’s posted less than from day 1- I can’t say much since I’m doing the same thing- but it is another reason why he might be mafia. Meh, I’m not pushing so hard on his lynch anymore- but I still think hes pretty mafiaish.
|
On January 15 2011 14:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote: and before anyone asks what I mean. This is the best sort of information you can get on someone. A player posting "analysis" to try and blend into a crowd while not contributing well, anything new and insightful. It works much better however when the player reads the thread and stays caught up and realizes said player "hes not sure about" flipped anti town. Considering the arguments against LSB were pretty damning, I would ask you this misder.
Why did you find him less scummy? Is this because you knew he wasn't mafia? It was because he was the only one who posted a plan (besides Jimbo, but that plan was pretty late).
On January 15 2011 19:34 CubEdIn wrote: I lol'd.
This page is full of win.
Misder, I may be stupid, because I didn't read the OP as well as I should have, but at least I'm not a fking retard.
Jimbo, I like you, really. You posted some nice stuff earlier, but now you go afk and come back like 1 minute before the night post, prolly because Ace PMed you. Please be more active in the game.
I don't think we should argue much though, just wait and see if we live through the night. I never said you were retarded I don't use that kind of language anyways.
On January 15 2011 23:24 zeks wrote: I said I was going to choose between Alignment Cop / Mason / Witch / Tracker and I chose Mason
As a reminder my mason partner is verified as pro-town but until I get his permission I won't claim him yet.
Meh. So zeks stole my role. I'm a green townie then, since I followed LSBs plan and chose mason as my role.
|
On January 17 2011 04:05 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2011 02:36 Misder wrote:I never said you were retarded I don't use that kind of language anyways. No, you said I'm stupid, very stupid. Mostly because I didn't read the OP well enough. And after saying that, you went on about LSB, who had already died, and did an "analysis" on him. Which means that you've been paying less attention to the game than I was. And that's just plain ignorant. But you know, bygones. Huh. TBH, I really did totally miss LSB dying actually. alright, I admit. I'm also very stupid. I'll blame myself for that. Although, I'll say that I payed equally as much attention to the game as you.
|
lol. ok, fine, its my fault. I never said I absolutely knew that LSB was town, I just believed him to be so. I payed less attention. I went back and reread and apparently I missed pages 48-52.
Now @BCs scenario- deconduo could be mafia, but what strikes me odd is that he tried to get Fishball lynched day 2 and said he would kill BC during the night, the opposite of what mafia would do. Also, we have to take into account that if deconduo is mafia, we would have a loose SK (besides the unknown).
|
On January 18 2011 03:36 aidnai wrote: you're right kenpachi, I just realized that--you were definitely not an inactive. I usually open a bunch of tabs and searches and check when the last post was made, I may have mixed you up with someone else or something, sorry!
In other news, wake up everybody. No reason for 3 hours of silence in the middle of the day--we have a lynch today, and we have nightkills to discuss as well. Current voting:
Fishball: 6 votes Kenpachi Kitaman27 Amber[light] Bumatlarge BloodyC0bbler aidnai
Eiii: 0 votes
Bumatlarge
BloodyC0bbler: 1 vote Pigsquirrel
Not voting yet: deconduo, CubedIn, Haplopaithan, Eiii, Misder, Jimbosilvers, Beneather
Misder is a player I'm having a hard time reading. Most of the content-posts from Misder have been responses to fishball's 'accusations', and misder never seems current on the situation or contributing to what is actively going on... Meh. I'm just having a hard time deciding what I want to do. On one hand, purely by facts, Fishball is the most likely traitor. On the other hand, I want to lynch BC or you instead, just because I have a feeling that you guys are mafia. ##Vote BC
|
On January 18 2011 05:11 Beneather wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2011 15:39 aidnai wrote:Regarding Bum/BC: Bum, I'm completely aware of the possibility of Fishball being bussed. On January 17 2011 11:43 aidnai wrote: So, having our medic roleblock is kind of annoying... Not sure how we'll be able to use Kita's vig role safely now. :/
It sounds like Fishball is giving up, if that is the case and he is in fact traitor/scum, we should expect that he is being bussed and people that are on his wagon are not necessarily in the clear. Due to all the circumstantial evidence, it really does look like Fish must be the traitor, and most likely he's already been recruited. BC's psychoanalysis is interesting, but not as convincing to me as the other evidence that has piled up.
##Vote Fishball
Fishball, if you're town and you don't want to defend yourself, at least give us some ideas to look into once you flip green. And, I have also pointed out reasons why I think BC is scum, some of which have yet to be addressed by BC (maybe he doesn't find me threatening enough to warrant a response). On the other hand, I agree with his posts on deconduo and fishball. All this to say, Fishball is a solid target for today, and if BC wants to push your lynch tomorrow or whatever, we'll analyze the evidence and decide at that point. In the meantime, the real point of my post... On January 16 2011 14:27 JimboSilvers wrote: Only have a moment but I took a hit last night. For now start looking at the people I accused. I'll be back sometime monday and can address the situation fully then. Well, this includes me, but I'm not going to analyze myself other than to reiterate, my crappy posting day 1 was due to my other mafia game driving me crazy, and I believe I've turned it around since then. I'm gonna focus on the following post. On January 15 2011 17:19 JimboSilvers wrote: Damn this is getting interesting. So I guess since deconduo is confirmed CC now, its unlikely we have a CPR doc unless someone was ballsy enough to pick it when it was pretty clear deconduo was going to pick it. So we might have 3 SKs unless the 4th hit last night was from a JOAT.
Deconduo should hit beneather. I'm pretty sure he's scum. Why? He's damn useless and posts only questions, one liners, doubt posts, and posts that just seems like he's trying to act. He doesn't offer any strong opinions, and offers questions on pointless information. And after he poses the questions, he never follows up and offers insight. His voting record is also laughable, he votes for LayOffRage day 1, and abstains day 2. He also has no acceptable reasoning for either of his votes.
kitaman should hit Fishball. Why? First off, this confirms kitas role and targets a troublemaker. If fishball flips traitor, then kita is confirmed innocent otherwise the hit wouldn't go through and fishball would be recruited instead. This is unlikely though, as I think Fishball is just plain scum. Hes been useless, calls out a bunch of people calling them scum with little reason. Although his play can be interpreted as "he's just having fun", he is active yet doesn't contribute. He stirs the pot when there is already chaos in the air, and doesn't do anything to actually help the town. Burn his ass.
For the third hit (CPR Doc/3rd SK), I propose zeks. This just reminds me of someone who is hiding. Said some stuff earlier about LSB's plan, announced his number, and announced that "I'll say that I'll be taking one of Alignment Cop, Tracker, Mason or Witch." Well its time for him to crawl out of your cave there, because for being an investigative role hes pretty clueless. Hes obviously not the witch. Either way, if hes any of the other roles he should state which one he is right now. Otherwise we should just shoot him. The rest of his posts have a common theme with the other above targets. Useless and insightless. He votes with flimsy reasoning on day 1, and didn't vote day 2. I was quite surprised by the zeks hit last night, I forgot that Jimbosilvers had recommended it to our unknown extra KP role. But good call on that one Jimbo... and Fishball is looking pretty good atm as well. As for Beneather, he's been absent for 30 something hours (since the LSB day vig hit). I completely misread Beneather the last game I played with him (he was blue I thought red) so I haven't payed enough attention to him until now, but going through his posts now Jimbo's summary of his posting this game is absolutely accurate. I will go ahead and re-recommend this hit for either decon/kita tonight. Here's smattering of his non-one-liner posts. Notice how pretty much all of these start with "But what about this..." and are always bringing up some inane possibilty such as me being traitor or copycat getting the traitor role etc. + Show Spoiler +On January 11 2011 06:49 Beneather wrote: HaploPaithan you have to have reasons on why we have you can't just blindly say something with out any reason to back up your statement. That's just basically 1 line spamming.
Why do we have to worry about CopyCat he will only copycat someone that has a good role and that he knows it for sure or he'll be just wasting his powers blindly and might get some bad role or something. The only time CopyCat will work is if people start claiming and he can just copycat that role if it's good also it would be good to see if their lying about their role. It really can be used as a Detective tool as well.
So what are you thinking that CopyCat is a bad role ? On January 11 2011 12:14 Beneather wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote: ##Aidnai
An easy choice. If hes not mafia, then fishball's speculation loses some cred, and it would seem mroe likely he picked traitor (still waiting for layoff to post his reasons why), but if aidnai is red, there could be easy scum lynches in that little pack. It's an opportunity on 1st lynch. Doesn't happen all that often. If I'm not corrected but if Aidnai does have traitor then the Copy Cat power works and that person gets traitor as well. Do we really want to work on another traitor? Honestly I wouldn't. We have to be very careful of our first lynch if we lynch a traitor then CopyCat gets that role and we have another traitor. We really just don't want Copy Cat getting the role traitor from our first lynch. On January 11 2011 12:29 Beneather wrote: Sure we can release Deconduo but one problem... How will we know who is the CopyCat? Also if he doesn't do as we say we can just lynch him and we get rid of the dangerous CPR Doctor.
The only one I can see the pardoner being used to save someone to be lynched is if they were mafia. That is a really strong mafia role. As it saves the mafia and then they can just use their KP at night saving that person for another day. On January 11 2011 12:54 Beneather wrote: But if a townie is being lynched then doesn't that mean that the majority of the town agree that this person is scum/traitor. Really if the person does pardon them it means that person is even more of a chance of being scum. I think if the person gets pardoned we should just get our CPR Doc. to just kill him. On January 11 2011 13:02 Beneather wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 12:56 kitaman27 wrote:On January 11 2011 12:36 LSB wrote: Jackal58 should be the copycat.
But as for the pardoner, I agree that the role should be used early to prevent mafia from using it late game to pull off a lylo win. At the same time though, it can prevent a townie from being lynched. At the same time, if the copycat is scum, then pardoning the day one lynch gives the mafia the role of their choice. Either way, would like hear more from Jackal. ##Vote LayOffRage Maybe this might motivate him join the discussion. But how would they have the role of their choice if they do not know who picked what in the draft since people didn't follow the LSB's plan. If they did and got Copy Cat + Pardoner they could easily have got the role that they wanted, but luckily people didn't. On January 11 2011 13:10 Beneather wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 13:03 Pigsquirrel wrote:On January 11 2011 12:56 LSB wrote: Good point.
I'm cool with a Day 1 Pardon plan then if no good target shows up. Adding to above, LSB agrees right away with a plan that, according to the post directly above him, "then pardoning the day one lynch gives the mafia the role of their choice" It's a real gamble to pardon day 1 lynch unless we know whether or not CC is scum, or even who the copy cat is. If the CC did not pick who he was supposed to and it was taken by scum later in the draft, we are screwed if the mafia gets a hidden bonus KP. I think we need to lynch a useless (to the mafia) role on day 1 to eliminate the risk of scum getting a copy of a dangerous role. How is it a gamble to pardon? Pardoning is a scum role so if we force a pardon then they get to choose who to kill. We'll also know that the person who got pardoned is mafia and we can just use CPR Doc. on him. Also Pardoner can only use once so we don't have to worry about anymore of those. I also suggest at night that the doctors should protect the CPR Doc. On the first night so that CC doesn't get CPR Doc if he is mafia. On January 11 2011 13:16 Beneather wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 13:11 LayOffRage wrote: ##Vote: Fishball I view him most likely to be the traitor. But if he's traitor then CC gets the traitor as well then we have to deal with that again. If you think that Fishball is a traitor then maybe the next day.I really do not want to deal with another traitor. There are so many accusations on different people being the traitor I understand that we need to deal with that after this first death because CC will get traitor. On January 11 2011 13:21 Beneather wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 13:13 Pigsquirrel wrote:On January 11 2011 13:10 Beneather wrote:On January 11 2011 13:03 Pigsquirrel wrote:On January 11 2011 12:56 LSB wrote: Good point.
I'm cool with a Day 1 Pardon plan then if no good target shows up. Adding to above, LSB agrees right away with a plan that, according to the post directly above him, "then pardoning the day one lynch gives the mafia the role of their choice" It's a real gamble to pardon day 1 lynch unless we know whether or not CC is scum, or even who the copy cat is. If the CC did not pick who he was supposed to and it was taken by scum later in the draft, we are screwed if the mafia gets a hidden bonus KP. I think we need to lynch a useless (to the mafia) role on day 1 to eliminate the risk of scum getting a copy of a dangerous role. How is it a gamble to pardon? Pardoning is a scum role so if we force a pardon then they get to choose who to kill. We'll also know that the person who got pardoned is mafia and we can just use CPR Doc. on him. Also Pardoner can only use once so we don't have to worry about anymore of those. I also suggest at night that the doctors should protect the CPR Doc. On the first night so that CC doesn't get CPR Doc if he is mafia. No. I'm saying that pardoning day 1 lynch is a gamble because if CC is scum, mafia gets a free role of their choice. What do we get from pardoning day 1? Using up a scummy role's power. What's the risk: Potentially giving scum a free copy of whatever role they want. Doesn't seem worth it to me, especially considering that we can just pardon day 2 and get all the benefit without giving scum a free role. But how do they know they know who has what role? No one followed the plan. So they have no real way of knowing what they will get. Also if they hit some who has BP or protection they lose their KP but we also have to worry about the SK and his KP. Pardoning Day 2 is safer, I agree with that. [green]There is 2 KPs at night and there's a pardon on day one ? Then who's kill goes first SK or Mafia's? If it's SK then CC gets the role of whoever SK killed? As Jimbo pointed out, when you read these posts you really get the feeling that it's all an act, that he's not really interested in knowing the answers to any of these questions (since he could think through it himself if he wanted), he's just coming up with things to say that a townie might say. On January 10 2011 10:07 Beneather wrote: Yes, I'm going to follow LSB's plan and take Bullet Proof ! :D Beneather, please claim whether you got this or not. We need to compare to Jimbo's claim (he claimed surviving a hit, did not specify vet/bulletproof). Alright, Aidnai I am going to claim since I already had said it before. I am Bullet Proof. So either Jimbo is vet or he is lying about getting hit. Anyone else claim vet?
|
GG. Now I don't feel bad about accusing you day 1.
|
On January 16 2011 11:25 deconduo wrote: I didn't get any PM about a role block, so fish was protected or is vet/BP
At this point, I think its almost certain that deconduo is mafia, as people have pointed out before. This quote especially exemplifies the lies of deconduo.
|
On January 19 2011 15:22 aidnai wrote: So, where the hell is everyone? Deconduo has been MIA since he hammered fishball, bumatlarge hasn't posted for two days, Misder is damn near 24 hours (again), Jimbo posted one time since he got back from his weekend and it's already been a day since that post, and beneather disappeard again too! I'm sorry. I'm sure you missed me a lot
Though, I don't really have much to say, cause I'm of split opinion. All I have to say is that kita needs to hit CPR tonight cause hes probably going to die tonight.
And that the best course of action for the SK is to help town because of all this confusion. Mafia knows who their scum mates are, meaning that in the endgame, they are likely to be much more organized than town (esp. in the state we are in now). If SK targets town, mafia will basically be more likely to lynch SK just due to plain probability. If SK targets mafia on the otherhand, town still doesn't know who the mafia are or the SK, and there is still confusion.
|
+ Show Spoiler +On January 19 2011 13:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2011 13:22 HaploPaithan wrote: I was not roleblocked last night. So it must have been bum who was. I viewed pigsquirrel last night and got the result different. I was hoping to determine if he was scum or not based on the view. Then lynch tomorrow so they wouldn't use PoD. Too bad they used it already.
This puts Jimbo and Bum as town and Pigsquirrel as Scum obviously. Right now it would seem that it is 7/4/1.
BC has picked out myself, bum, pigsquirrel and deconduo as the 4 scum. If i had to guess, I'd figure that Jumbo also agrees with him. If that is the case then scum will lose without the help of the SK. If i were scum, i certainly wouldn't be relying on the SK to help me win. It would be much better to wait a day and then use PoD. Scum had no guarentee about who Kita would kill. It seemed likely that kita would potentially target Bum or Deconduo last night. This seems like a big gamble and not worth waiting another night or 2 to reveal the PoD. It would have required no roleblock on the CPR, no protections on their targets, and for Kita to not hit one of us.
I think we should be looking elsewhere. I'm looking at BC pretty heavily here. He is using a scare tactic of scum outright winning if we don't do as he says. This isn't really the case. We know for sure who a scum is, pigsquirrel. Yet he doesn't want to use the town's only KP on a guaranteed scum hit. He also considers Deconduo to be a scum, yet again isn't pushing for his death. Instead he wants to kill off Bum with the town KP and is hoping that the SK will kill off myself. The 2 players on his list least likely to be scum. If town and SK KP are used tonight to kill off Townies, then the game will go 3/4/1. Pretty much cementing a mafia win. We need to watch out for this. Other players that are potentially scum could include Misder, Beaneather, Aidnai, or Kenpachi. Though my personal opinion is that Aidnai is a town who is being swayed by BC.
I will agree that Deconduo is probably scum. So if anything we should be playing it safe and killing off pigsquirrel or deconduo. Perhaps SK will help us, perhaps not. I'd personally say to kill Pigsquirrel tonight in hopes that Deconduo is actually the SK. Deconduo tomorrow.
Sorry if this post is a mess. Took awhile to write and I don't like the way it turned out. But hopefully you guys understand what I'm trying to say.
Hi, im the resident asshole, posting logically is something I have done overall all game. Now, lets break your post down. BC has picked out myself, bum, pigsquirrel and deconduo as the 4 scum. If i had to guess, I'd figure that Jumbo also agrees with him. If that is the case then scum will lose without the help of the SK.Now lets look at the numbers. 7v4v1 Tonight mafia hits two players. 5v4v1 sk hits town 4v4v1 town hits mafia 4v3v1 Now, if town doesn't kill cpr in the red that dies it comes down to a lynch. Lets say town lynches a mafia 4v2v1 IF town misses cpr again 2v2v1 SK shoots a town 1v2v1 mafia controls vote basically, sk lynched mafia wins, town lynched sk wins. TOWN can't win if sk helps mafia Town vig will not live past its one hit as well. now lets start over 7v4v1 Town hits mafia sk hits mafia 7v2v1 mafia hits x2 town 5v2v1 Now, in this position, SK will not shoot a mafia as he will lose. Town must now lynch cpr mafia (lets say it does for this part). 5v1v1 mafia shoots town sk shoots town 3v1v1 Town lynches mafia 3v0v1 sk hits town 2v0v1 town lynches sk town win. IF town misses the cpr mafia in its lynching above 5v1v1 mafia x2 hits town sk hits town 2v1v1 town cannot win, mafia or sk win based off lynch. Mafia can win without SK helping them, town cannot win without sk helping them. Your logic is fundamentally incorrect. Next, kenpachi and aidnai are essentially confirmed. AS much as kita annoys the fuck out of me for shooting at me, he is confirmed almost 90%. Eiii is confirmed town based on red sniping his role (sup halpo). There are 4 confirmed of the 7 town players. My actions at this point should have put me on that list, makes 5. Now, whos left, jimbo, misder, bum, decon, beneather, halpo, and pig. Of this list, we know decon is red, as is pig. 2 red jimbo misder, bum, beneather, halpo. of these 5, we know 2 are red, 1 is sk. Bum said he was going to follow the town plan, as did halpo, both did not. Both have sat back and lurked the thread "actively reading" yet not being helpful or participating. They also both have "investigative roles" that have all been used on players who have claimed/alignment been clearly displayed before they posted, ie faked results. This makes bum and halpo the last two reds. jimbo, misder, beneather, 2 town, 1 sk. OF the three of them, beneather and jimbo could possibly be the sk, I don't believe misder is, as well, his play style just screams his regular play as town. You now push that i don't want town to off the confirmed reds. GUESS what. Unless the red cpr doctor dies, town cannot win. Period. You can say its a mafia move, but unless the mafia cpr dies, the town loses. The numbers show it. Now obviously above the mafia could fail to hit a townie and shoot the sk keeping one townie alive longer, but the numbers show if all kp goes through. Town has to play a perfect game, or it loses, and it needs the sk to help to do it. By posting that the scum needs the sk to win just proves my point that you are red. Since you explicitly state decon and pig are obviously red, then link yourself to bum as "the two most unlikely reds" while posting the most scum filled post you have posted so far you just revealed your entire team to the town, while attempting very poorly to bus me. You also post your list of "scum" who include 2 confirmed townies, and two more confirmed town. Cool thanks. With your information beneather, aidnai, kenpachi, and misder are not mafia. We know kita is town, and we know based on your role steal/"checks" aidnai is not mafia, and based on actions we know jimbo and and I aren't mafia. You confirmed your entire team, and now all we have to do is analyze the sk. Ok town, if you refuse to see everything now, I honestly don't know what else it will take. Thanks for the compliment? You also forgot to say that you might be one of the possibilities. I still think you're SK.
|
lol. <3 kita.
##Vote HaploPaithan
And I still think BC is SK.
|
|
I say that decon tries to hit SK tonight and tells us who he tried to hit. Just saying. We might spare you one day if you do.
And does Jimbo get to survive a lynch even after he already got hit? If so, Jimbo being SK pretty much screws us.
I think the best option is if we lynch decon today (4v1v1 -> 4v0v1, night 3v0v1), lynch Jimbo the next day (who won't die unless he lied, so still 3v0v1, night 2v1), then we decide who to lynch the last day as lylo. This gives us the biggest probability of lynching SK.
|
Awww, I didn't get to vote
|
Best Case Scenario Whoever got hit last night, please come out. It may or may not result in a cookie.
Worst Case Scenario Day 5v1 -> 4v1 Night 4v1 -> 3v1 Day 3v1 -> 2v1 Night 2v1 -> 1v1 Day So we still have two days to lynch SK. And we have to reserve two in order to lynch Jimbo just in case he is SK.
TBH, I kinda just want to vote BC off right away. Also, BC started the bandwagon (is that the right word if everyone was going to vote for him anyway?) on deconduo, maybe just to rush decon's death from telling the mafia hit on himself. And in a different game, when he was ninja (ehh, not exactly the same, but a nontown role nonetheless), he also acted very protown (as in scumhunted and stuff).
But I still think the best course of action is to lynch Jimbo next day just for security sake.
|
On January 22 2011 06:54 JimboSilvers wrote: Whoa Aidnai, why do you want us not to talk about it? while clearly we get more info once we see who dies, the biggest danger we have right now is not knowing enough to correctly find the sk. We need people to post, we need to see peoples reactions, and we need to put the real sk under some heat and get him to fuck up.
Misder, there's no need to jump the gun and lynch someone right away. We have plenty of time to get info out there so we can make the right choice. If you want to go ahead and vote people to get them to post, as people like eiii should not be able to lurk this much and say nothing, but under no circumstances should anyone be hammering until we have a clear target.
And how is it security to lynch me? That wastes a chance to find SK. It won't prove I'm green either since I'm vet. Best case scenario is I get shot so you can be sure about me and pick two other targets, but that probably won't happen since SK is probably counting on me getting lynched.
What I was saying was that we need to make a decision today. When I say to lynch you for security, I'm saying that it is the only way to lynch you if you were the SK. Since I regard you as one of my top suspects, I don't want to risk it. Ultimately its up to us whether or not we want to hit two people or just you.
On January 22 2011 06:54 aidnai wrote: accelerated day/night cycles plz?
by the way your numbers are off misder. We're at 5v1 right now, during night. So it should be: Plan 1: lynch someone not Jimbo Current night 5v1 tomorrow: 4v1 night again: 3v1 2nd day: 2v1 LYLO, plus too late to kill vet
On the other hand if we hit jimbo and he was telling the truth about vet, then it goes Plan 2, lynch Jimbo Current night 5v1 tomorrow: 4v1 night again: 4v1 2nd day: 3v1 MYLO. If we choose no lynch, then night: 3v1 day 3: 2v1 LYLO
In both plans, we can end up at 2v1 which in terms of statistics is the best shot we have of guessing correctly. At that point, we've eliminated the greatest number of incorrect targets by flipping 3 of our remaining 6 players.
The major advantage of hitting Jimbo is we avoid a situation where it's too late to lynch the vet. We also verify Jimbo's vet claim. The only disadvantage is that in plan 1 we get to pick a suspicious person to flip, whereas in plan 2 all three flips are done by the SK.
That's just the numbers though. And the best the numbers can do is 33%. This will come down to analysis, argument, and persuasion in the end, and I'm REALLY hoping I'm around for it... This is my favorite part of mafia...
BTW, I don't think deconduo would have really revealed the SK, and it would have been a dick move to do so anyway. He's just been stringing us along the entire game, when he should have died day 2. If he had really wanted to screw the SK over, he could have told us his hit when he sent it in.
Jimbo, about the 'slip of the tongue', I remember reading that LSB's hit was barundar night 1? I can't find it now, (hate it when the game is past 50 pages), does anyone else remember this? Now that I stop and think about it, LSB never admitted anything before he flipped, so it must have been speculation that I took for fact -_-. Meh, so maybe LSB hit haplopaithan, maybe the SK#2's scumdar wasn't quite as unbelievable as I gave him credit for. But even without that hit, SK#2 still has bagged zeks and bum... Your # are right, but the I think the conclusion is still the same- we only get two more days to lynch.
Also BC getting hit by SK is probably best for us TBH. I was seriously considering lynching him today, but I guess I was wrong.
|
On January 20 2011 13:27 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I will simply say this.
Eii Kenpachi Misder. Aidnai
You 4 are the 4 "confirmed town"
Myself, jimbo, and beneather. 1 of us 3 is the sk.
Decon is red.
OF the three of us on the sk list. Jimbo, as much as I love the guy for being awesome this game, best fits the profile of sk. However I am not sure on this, its just a gut instinct.
When the night post hits, I expect to be dead, so good luck you guys.
Off decon, then its a game of finding the sk. Remember, if it is jimbo, it takes two days to lynch him if his vet claim is real!
Does anyone know why BC said these four were "confirmed" townies? There's got to be a reason, but I'm not sure why.
Eiii, I'm especially not sure. I haven't seen him in a long time. However, when I went back to his posts in the game, they all seem pretty town. That's the only thing that's throwing me off of him.
Kenpachi- I'll go with Jimbos analysis and say that he basically had no reason as SK to take the godfather role.
I know that BC said that aidnai was confirmed because it was unlikely that he would save an SK shot, but there was another SK (LSB) in the game, so he could have saved that shot.
Jimbo- he just seems like a threat as he has veteran, but as he has pointed out, I may be too distracted about this threat.
So right now, my main lynch target is aidnai.
|
|
|
|