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TL Mafia XXXIV: Pokemafia - Page 7

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 06:32 GMT
#973
Where's your second bomb? This is pretty important.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 06:41 GMT
#977
I'm thinking about a slipt DC/Node lynch.
We know one of the two are mafia. Since there is no such thing as a raichu/electrode.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:07 GMT
#981
Wait... Wow, I get what you're talking about DC.

All we do now is wait for Eiii to claim

Can I send Eiii a PM to prod him into checking this thread? If not, can you Doc H
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:08 GMT
#982
DCLXIV, did you bomb D3?
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:15 GMT
#985
That simplifies things a lot more if you didn't bomb D3

All right, I also ran through the numbers

Lynching Node and DCLXIV

Node is telling the truth.
Night 4: 7/4/1. D3 hits Eiii
Day 5: Eiii is raichu: 4/4/1, very iffy situation... Lylo all the way
Day 5: Eiii is mafia: 5/3/1 not too bad

DCLXVI is telling the truth
Night 4: DCLXVI stuck his bomb on townie: 6/4/1 LYLO
Night 4: DCLXVI stuck his bomb on scum: 7/3/1 very good chances
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:20 GMT
#986
On December 19 2010 16:13 DCLXVI wrote:
Also, how did you manage to determine d3 was SK and get him to claim?

I'm very good at guessing.

Imagine this setup. I have a hat and inside is either a big rock, or a crisp $20 bill. Now, I pose to you the question. What is inside? If you guess correctly you get what's inside

+ Show Spoiler +
You guess $20 because being correct about a big rock is worthless

I did this to Hesmyrr in Segunko Mafia
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:29 GMT
#988
If we go for hit node and a scummy player, this is what the numbers look like

On December 19 2010 12:38 LSB wrote:
Day 4: 8/5/1

Miss Both
Night 4:6/5/1. Mafia Victory

Hit one, miss one
Night 4: 7/4/1
(If miss mafia) Day 5:4/4/1 LYLO
(If hit mafia) Day 5:5/3/1 Advantageous to not Double lynch

Hit two mafia
Night 4:8/3/1
(If miss mafia) Day 5:5/3/1 Advantageous to not Double lynch
(If hit mafia) Day 5:6/2/1 Very close to victory


The numbers are going to be a bit worse if we go for DC and a scummy player, with a bigger chance of immediatly loosing.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 07:41 GMT
#993
Well, assuming that you didn't place the bomb on me. The bomb has a 5/12 chance of being correct*
Also, if you tell us who you placed the bomb on, it would be extreamly helpful in determing what to do.

Also, remeber, we have not yet decided who to trust. My idea of lyching Node+DCLXIV trusts no one.

+ Show Spoiler +
Technically its lower, because he chose to place the bomb before the kills were made. But that isn't really relevant.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 14:45 GMT
#999
On December 19 2010 20:00 Eiii wrote:
I've been lurking recently because after reading through the thread each day, I just haven't found myself with any reason to post. You guys gave me a reason this time around, though..

...because today I learned that either I'm miller or node is scum! Given how fragile the current situation is I'm more inclined to believe node is just lying and trying to throw off our double lynch to all but secure a mafia victory. DC's actions recently don't make him look 100% clean, but neither do node's-- plus, I don't think it's totally believable that a dt would be lucky enough to hit mafia twice on his first two tries. :/

What did your role PM say? Pikachu?
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 19:10 GMT
#1005
Actually, if he's the dt, he knows that he's dead tonight.

I still don't trust DCLXVI.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 19:22 GMT
#1008
Considering Brocket, Insasious, and kitaman27 were all on your tail yesterday about you being mafia, I wouldn't be surprised if that was true.

Although I do agree what Node did was unwise, it did force you to claim Hatter, and I'm not so sure about the validity of the claim
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 19:28 GMT
#1010
Well, if we're going to lynch lurkers, we'd better do it in a way that we can insure it is random
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 19:46 GMT
#1012
Because I'm super paranoid that your mafia and just picked two inactive townies
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 19:49 GMT
#1014
I'll do an analysis on dinmasab to see if what you're talking about is correct.

Brb
Btw
I've created a pastebin of the past 50 pages so it's easy to search through now that my "All" functionality is broken. http://pastebin.com/rhtjdf4b
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 20:11 GMT
#1016
Analysis of dinmsab.
He hasn't helped town at all. I went through his posts and haven't found anything worth mentioning.
Maybe this.
On December 10 2010 13:03 dinmsab wrote:
Imo, I think it's inevitable to lynch inactives. I'm an amateur at this but in my last game I was mafia and I tried to stay low. So yeah, from my perspective inactives might be mafia, worse case scenario they're just bored pikachus. So not much harm there. Although if we have solid leads and clues on active players, I believe that should take priority.


All right, now to look at how he played other games


Incognito's TL Mafia XVI Townie. He makes 3 worthless posts.
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 22 2010 02:14 dinmsab wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 22 2010 02:08 Ng5 wrote:
Fine, then if I got the staff I would lynch the one with the least sense of humor?

Yeah, you just sealed your fate right there.

On January 23 2010 00:04 dinmsab wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 22 2010 21:00 Ng5 wrote:
So much for random lynching does the game bad.

It was nice to be eating popcorn and watching the elections on tv (can't stomach going to political stuff live) - and see all the faces after his face turned all green from lack of oxygen.

Loud troublemakers are fun. At least you have some distraction - no matter which side you are.

This lynch was brainless and didn't do any good. If you need to kill a bigmouth because you can't disregard them then don't run for power.

And don't come to me with the just to ease the nerves bullshit. If the town is full of greens and blues who can't tell rosepetals from thorns we're all gonna die anyway.

Peace.

PS: Oh and look how much good it would have done if I've chosen sides already? Besides. Wisecracking and being cynical is cool. It's like dating. You never know what's up green, red or blue.

PS2: I hope you'll lynch me next because I'm being a distraction now. It would be hilarious. Well worth dropping out of active play.


Almost anything would get you lynched in this game, except for when your actually asking for it.


On January 25 2010 22:47 dinmsab wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 25 2010 16:22 JohannesH wrote:
On January 25 2010 15:33 ghote wrote:
clues are our best bet on finding the mafia, looking at behavior is fine, but not if it gets in the way of putting the clues together, you cannot lynch somebody just based on their behavior, the clues are the only concrete link we have to people of the mafia, anything else is purely speculation

No. Its just the other way around. Usually this game is played without any clues whatsoever.


Clues help indeed, just don't trust them 100% for certain. Ignoring clues would be a total waste imo.


Red Army Mafia Spam, but I don’t know his alignment, so any read is probably usless

[GG] Team Liquid Mafia – Resurrection Mafia Leader.
Well he actually was active this game. And played good townie who listens to the town circle by supporting Ace.
+ Show Spoiler +
On December 15 2008 06:50 dinmsab wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2008 03:01 Hyperbola wrote:
-also his name: Scaramanga, the liquid scars people, it even burns people's faces off.

-and also from his quote: "SaiR is next Bonjwa" it sounds a lot like “Your time of running things is over, our time is now”

It seems Scaramanga is actually our best bet to get a mafia.

AND ALSO

Everybody: switch your votes from folca! It does not matter how much of a jerk he was last game! With no clues against him, he is 80% most likely to be innocent.


I was going to vote for Folca, but you Hyperbola changed my mind. Its true Folca is a jerk, but we cant just go kill off random townies if we're planning to win this. Good work Hyperbola.

Spammny Vote reasons

On December 16 2008 07:57 dinmsab wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 16 2008 05:58 blue_arrow wrote:
On December 16 2008 05:51 HeRoS)Pink wrote:
On December 16 2008 05:39 Tensai176 wrote:
Yeah, it's good to be active as mafia are most likely to remain quiet.

Not true,mafia are those who mostly agree with what someone said but never bring something new in every post they do


or they could be people that constantly bring up 'new things' to confuse the town and weaken confidence and determination


imo, at this rate mafia could be acting as either one of those... and i believe that blues are more likely to stay in the shadows and avoid the spotlight rather than mafia. Killing off inactive players is indeed a good move when you dont have any clues on what to do next, but that doesnt mean your going to get a guaranteed mafia kill. Right people should just do whatever Ace tells them too since he's the one making the most sense, but that doesnt mean we can trust him completely with a list of blues.

Supports Ace, a townie, and his circle

On December 17 2008 06:47 dinmsab wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 17 2008 06:38 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
man everyone is so angry now

Well, it cant be helped.. we were on a very good start when we got ver lynched with the help of ace, and now suddenly out of nowhere 2 DTs just got owned. Its just natural that people will shift their blame to someone.. and since Ace did most of the decision making and he was working with an "anonymous" dt, not to mention he is also likely to be with contact with most of the blues at this moment, people would shift their attention to him. Although i'd say we put our suspicions of ace on hold, and first continue to deal with the list that the dt gave us.

Continues to support ace

On December 18 2008 19:23 dinmsab wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 18 2008 19:18 clazziquai wrote:
So who are we voting for??

Clear out the list first, like ace said its a guaranteed mafia hit. Then we can move on with the other suspects. Btw, assuming ace isnt lying to us, and indeed another medic appeared... then wouldnt it be wise if we kill atkzerg first? I dont think that townie claiming to be a medic would have any reason to lie about his position, unless he is a bored townie and just wants to see another medic dead.


Follows Ace



Conclusion: Probably town: As mafia he put some effort into his posts.
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 20:14 GMT
#1017
Gabriel, please explain these two posts

On December 19 2010 16:52 Gabriel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 19 2010 16:41 DCLXVI wrote:
On December 19 2010 16:37 Gabriel wrote:
I think Node and Dinmsab do the trick for me. Suggestions?

would you mind restating your suspicion on dinmsab? Not to knock on your scum hunting, but this is too important to risk on a hunch. What makes dinmsab stand out?

I have the strongest feeling that he is mafia because i played a game with him (i joined the mafia later in the game). In few words he just doesnt post at all (i think it was mafia resurrection with bc as host, i played under malongo id).
Iif you look at his voting pattern he has been an early voter both times, hinting that he doesnt want to die to a modkill but that he is not interested into posting (he has like 3 posts). More than anything voting just too early for a bandwagonably (if thats a word) player (Gabriel).
Now it is pretty clear that he is not blue and it doesnt make sense for him to be green. He is the kind of player that just afk in that case without voting.


On December 19 2010 15:45 Gabriel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 19 2010 15:40 DCLXVI wrote:
Night 1 - place on gabriel
Night 2 place on shockeyy
night 3 move from gabriel to player y

as you may have noticed I didn't participate much in the shockeyy bandwagon because I had that covered, but...

Wait. You had a bomb on shockeyy and me when shockeyy died. Why didnt you redirect the lynch on you at that stage? You could have roleclaimed at that time to clean up shockeyy and me protecting the SK that was helping the town. Never thought of it?

Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 21:15 GMT
#1024
On December 20 2010 05:36 Infundibulum wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2010 03:08 DCLXVI wrote:
On December 20 2010 01:26 Node wrote:
Now that I've seen comments from both of them, allow me to fess up. Know that I am doing this not to save myself, but to keep town from lynching DCLXVI and Eiii. First, understand where I'm coming from.

I am in fact Alakazam.

I lied about who I checked. Yeah yeah, I know, LAL, but hear me out.

Night 1 I checked Insanious. Night 2 I checked Brocket. Night 3 I was roleblocked, and Insanious and Brocket died. Everything I had done up until that point in the game was invalidated, and I had good reason to believe that I would be killed on the following night. (clearly, mafia had an inkling that I'm blue) By lying, I was hoping that a) if they were scum, they would do something stupid or b) they would be forced to roleclaim and give town more clear lynch targets.

I do believe that DCL and Eiii are innocent, now. DCL's frankness regarding his bombs, and the rise of Eiii combined with the lack of other players coming out of nowhere to defend them have me fairly certain that they're town. Think about it: town has figured out on their own that the best lynch would be me and DCL. Two town-aligned players. It would give mafia the win. That's why we've seen nothing in the way of interference so far.

Wait what????? You go from your half assed lie of:
"I checked 2 reds the first two nights then sat on them instead of doing what a real dt would do and reveal them day 3"
To this?
I really wish I could've posted that before you wriggled out of that lie, but I was too late. Now you are trying to shift the lynch off of you and try to make me agree with it by calling me townie? Your story now is that you checked two useless players and got roleblocked so you cannot provide us with any information? Also you plan was to fish for our roles? To see if there were any more chanseys/dt's you needed to kill? Frankly I don't buy this story either. Town do the right thing and lynch this lying scum.


I don't know. I kind of agree with deconduo (who has popped out of the woodwork here) that Node's claim doesn't make much since from a mafia perspective. They are in a strong position right now and don't need to risk much, unless they're going for style. I dunno Node's meta though so IDK if he's the kind of player that does those sort of things.

What you say also makes sense though. Node's story is VERY convenient. Remember Pandain's "checks" from the Insane mafia game where he lied about very convenient checks? I get the same vibe from the checks Node says he made. Also did Node claim he was roleblocked before this post? If I was roleblocked I'd probably claim ASAP, since it gives the town information.

I'm undecided on this as of yet but either way Node lying doesn't help his case here.

I think we also need to look at inactives - BrownBear, Oceanic, chaoser, are names that have been bugging me.

You haven't been really active either...
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 21:47 GMT
#1026
If you checked brocket, why didn't you try to stop us from Nightkilling him?
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 23:20 GMT
#1030
1. deconduo
Day 1: Kenpachi
Day 2: Gabriel
Day 3: Shockeyy

2. BrownBear
Day 1: Missed vote
Day 2: Brownbear
Day 3: D3_crescentia

3. Eiii
Day 1: Kenpachi
Day 2: Zeks
Day 3: D3_crescentia

4. GGQ
Day 1: Zeks
Day 2: Zeks
Day 3: Shockeyy

5. LSB
Day 1: Kenpachi
Day 2: Shockeyy
Day 3: Shockeyy

9. dinmsab
Day 1: Zeks
Day 2: Gabriel
Day 3: Gabriel

11. DCLXVI
Day 2: Zeks
Day 3: D3_crescentia

14. Node
Day 1: Zeks
Day 2: Zeks
Day 3: DCLXVI

15. KtheZ
Day 1: Zeks
Day 2: Zeks
Day 3: Shockeyy

18. Oceanic
Day 1: Zeks
Day 2: Zeks
Day 3: Oceanic

19. Gabriel
Day 1: Zeks
Day 2: Zeks
Day 3: Shockeyy

24. Kavdragon
Day 1: Kenpachi
Day 2: Gabriel
Day 3: D3_crescentia

26. Infundibulum
Day 1: Zeks
Day 1: Zeks
Day 3: Shockeyy

30. d3_crescentia
Day 1: Hesmyrr
Day 2: Shockeyy
Day 3: DCLXVI
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
LSB
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5171 Posts
December 19 2010 23:22 GMT
#1031
On December 20 2010 08:12 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2010 07:24 Kavdragon wrote:
Ok, to make sure we are all on the same page, here's the situation: We are currently at 8/5/1. By lynch, or M2's night kill, we must kill two mafia two days in a row to survive. Here is my bubble, let me know if I did anything wrong. (http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5751/mafiaendgame.jpg if you want to see it un-resized, and not blurry)

[image loading]

This means that we cannot lynch M2. (For at least two nights, anyways)


On December 20 2010 05:40 BrownBear wrote:
##Vote: DCLXVI
##Vote: d3_crescentia
##Vote: Double Lynch


You appear to have slipped sir. Vote Brownbear.

I waited to post this to see if anyone would vote D3, Brownbear didn't disappoint.
Also, this may or may not make DCLXVI less suspicious. You decide.



I disagree with you, but then, I'm biased against town alliances w/ 3rd parties. They never work out well for anyone.

Personally, my view is that if we know who MewTwo is, we should lynch him. End of story.

What do you think we should do today if we don't work with MewTwo then?
Also, how will the numbers look like?
Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action. Bus Driver can never target themselves I'm sorry
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