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Insane Mafia - Page 3

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L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 04 2010 04:49 GMT
#2858
So reading over the past few pages, I have no idea why certain people are even bothering to respond to coag. The guy's overtly mafia and has started trolling, probably with the aim of keeping the focus of attention on himself. That either tells me that he's cool with our current situation or that he's so overwhelmed that we've not only gotten him, but have leads on others as well.

Tomorrow I think I'll put a bit more time into that second idea, but its sleep time for now.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 04 2010 20:25 GMT
#2889
Wow.

Hyperbola. LOL.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 04 2010 20:43 GMT
#2893
Re: Nemesis.

This is the portion during which you get apologetic.

On October 30 2010 03:12 Nemesis wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 30 2010 02:58 annul wrote:
its what, 2 votes? if the vote is close enough (like, 16-14) where my one vote will tip the scale, then perhaps it is not "stupid" to have voted it, right?

the mayoral role is not really a town leader position. it's an extra set of lives and a very weak voting power that can be overcome easily (and is 100% transparent). i am playing along with the leadership meme because hey it makes sense, but think about what POWER the mayor has. the only power it has is protection and a weak voting boost. any other leadership that the town chooses to assign to the mayor player is entirely on their own volition.

why do we want to give death protection to a mason? there is no real reason we want to keep the masons alive above someone else who can actually affect things, right? so he has a circle, cool, what does that do for us and why would his death hurt the town, per se?

if i died it would be much worse than a random mason dying, that is all i am saying. are there others out there with roles better suited to protection? probably. but they aren't talking, so i will.

My bad, it seems that I misunderstood the mayor role. I thought they get to lynch one extra person.


After repeated oneliners clarifying rules to other players with no submissions of your own, you start trying to produce real content around the 300 post mark. You then realize your arguments are pretty ridiculous and back off quickly.

Its not super incriminating, but its odd that someone who's staring at the rules wouldn't know that the mayor gets an extra vote and not an extra lynch.

Around the 2k post mark you shift back to one liners and ask other people to do analysis on certain players. You say you're too lazy to do it yourself.

You also trip yourself up when you state that you're all for lynching inactives to get them to post, but then you turn around immediately and say that LAL makes no sense because it targets liars rather than scum. Why use one heuristic over the other? You never really make the argument. And that's not just a single point; there are multiple posts of yours on this front.

The 2200 series of posts are pretty much a rehash. Against LAL, targetting inactives and clearing up rules questions. Mostly in one liners. In the 2300 section, he pushes for cube to prot DC, which is reasonable regardless of his alignment.

The 2500 are a bit more interesting. There's a focus on M-rus and asking pandain to confirm himself + questions about double lynches. This is prior to pandain having a bus driven at him. The rest of the posts are literally one liners regarding inactives or in another instance just a quote from DrH. There's a LOT of chaff in these posts.

Nemesis opens into the 2600 section by stating that he'll look bad if pandain flips red. There's more one liners including a one liner rebuke of my first post, then s'more another question for pandain, regarding how he can confirm himself.

Overall Nemesis's concrete actions aren't unreasonable after the halfway point during his posts. But there's a problem: he doesn't really do much even when he is posting. There's a lot (a LOT) of one-two line posts that parrot other players, and the majority of his posting seems to be a combination of talking about the rules, and lightly incriminating people who are unlikely to retaliate.

Anyways, Take a skim through his posts and tell me if you agree.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 00:02 GMT
#2911
On November 05 2010 06:58 Nemesis wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2010 05:43 L wrote:
Re: Nemesis.

This is the portion during which you get apologetic.

On October 30 2010 03:12 Nemesis wrote:
On October 30 2010 02:58 annul wrote:
its what, 2 votes? if the vote is close enough (like, 16-14) where my one vote will tip the scale, then perhaps it is not "stupid" to have voted it, right?

the mayoral role is not really a town leader position. it's an extra set of lives and a very weak voting power that can be overcome easily (and is 100% transparent). i am playing along with the leadership meme because hey it makes sense, but think about what POWER the mayor has. the only power it has is protection and a weak voting boost. any other leadership that the town chooses to assign to the mayor player is entirely on their own volition.

why do we want to give death protection to a mason? there is no real reason we want to keep the masons alive above someone else who can actually affect things, right? so he has a circle, cool, what does that do for us and why would his death hurt the town, per se?

if i died it would be much worse than a random mason dying, that is all i am saying. are there others out there with roles better suited to protection? probably. but they aren't talking, so i will.

My bad, it seems that I misunderstood the mayor role. I thought they get to lynch one extra person.

Lol, I made a misunderstanding early in the game and make on post that i made a mistake and that makes me apologetic early on in the game. You are one funny man.

After repeated oneliners clarifying rules to other players with no submissions of your own, you start trying to produce real content around the 300 post mark. You then realize your arguments are pretty ridiculous and back off quickly.
Can you at least please point that out. Looking at around the 300 post, my posts are about clarifying people's candidacy for mayor and I was asking them how they can disprove my doubts. I wasn't really arguing.

Its not super incriminating, but its odd that someone who's staring at the rules wouldn't know that the mayor gets an extra vote and not an extra lynch.
I am pretty new to mafia(although I've played it irl), so I don't exactly know all the roles and what they do, which is why I was asking about the rules and stuff. This is my second game here and this game has a different format than last game.


Around the 2k post mark you shift back to one liners and ask other people to do analysis on certain players. You say you're too lazy to do it yourself.
I only asked an analysis on misder as far as I remember, how does that turn into "players"?

You also trip yourself up when you state that you're all for lynching inactives to get them to post, but then you turn around immediately and say that LAL makes no sense because it targets liars rather than scum. Why use one heuristic over the other? You never really make the argument. And that's not just a single point; there are multiple posts of yours on this front.
I never made the argument, because no one asked me too. Those were during different phases of the game. I had forgotten about inactives as most of them have died already at that point. Inactives don't contribute to the game at all if they are townies. It also allows for a place for mafia to hide, and we have no way of knowing which is mafia and which is not.

Lying on the other hand can be beneficial to town if used correctly, and if someone is caught in a lie, you just have to read the intention of the lie to determine whether that lie was supposed to benefit the townie or mafia. Aeres' lie was clearly meant to benefit the town even if it was dumb which was why I was against lynching him.

Does that answer your question?


The 2200 series of posts are pretty much a rehash. Against LAL, targetting inactives and clearing up rules questions. Mostly in one liners. In the 2300 section, he pushes for cube to prot DC, which is reasonable regardless of his alignment.

The 2500 are a bit more interesting. There's a focus on M-rus and asking pandain to confirm himself + questions about double lynches. This is prior to pandain having a bus driven at him. The rest of the posts are literally one liners regarding inactives or in another instance just a quote from DrH. There's a LOT of chaff in these posts.
Look above. Anything suspicious about asking how the game works?

Nemesis opens into the 2600 section by stating that he'll look bad if pandain flips red. There's more one liners including a one liner rebuke of my first post, then s'more another question for pandain, regarding how he can confirm himself.

Overall Nemesis's concrete actions aren't unreasonable after the halfway point during his posts. But there's a problem: he doesn't really do much even when he is posting. There's a lot (a LOT) of one-two line posts that parrot other players, and the majority of his posting seems to be a combination of talking about the rules, and lightly incriminating people who are unlikely to retaliate.
I am just observing for now. I am just "lightly" incriminating people for now as I haven't decided to lynch them. If I decide to lynch them, then I'll be more aggresive. That's just my play style.

Anyways, Take a skim through his posts and tell me if you agree.

Overall, you seem to EXAGGERATE a lot of the stuff that I said. Really? I make one post about making a misunderstanding and you call that "early on, he was pretty apologetic." You might also want to include more quotes of my post if you want to have a proper analysis.

I don't really know what to think of you at this point as you seem to have mostly skimmed over my post and make your opinions based on that. Since you were subbed in, I will give you the benefit of a doubt that you just didn't understand the situation at the time my early posts were made.

If anything, I understated the majority of the claims I made.

I grouped most of your posts together by post number in the thread, and they're readily accessible here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=-1&u=Nemesis&gb=date

Trying to tell me that you're 'just observing' or whatnot doesn't explain why you're making 1 liner me-toos chaff posts. Additionally, if you are just observing why would you be lightly incriminating people? Seems like you just want to have future targets to pick off later without taking responsibility for throwing suspicion on them.

Its silly that your defense here only reinforces the scum-like qualities that were pointed out.

To reply to a few points of yours:
"I didn't bother making the argument because no one asked me to"
Yeah, that's because you were me-tooing me. That doesn't cut it. Its a way of trying to appear active while trying to not take any responsibility.

"I only asked an analysis on misder as far as I remember, how does that turn into "players"?"
The important part isn't the plural, its the fact that you, with all your free observing time, decided it was a good idea to ask other people to do work instead of do it yourself. Its pretty a pretty standard way to play as mafia; tell the town to do useful things, but rejoice silently as they don't bother doing it. That way the town's at a net neutral position, but you end up looking both active and pro-town without actually having contributed anything.

If you were busy in the slightest, this might be excusable, but you readily admit you're just sitting around doing nothing for the sake of watching people.

"I am pretty new to mafia(although I've played it irl), so I don't exactly know all the roles and what they do, which is why I was asking about the rules and stuff."
Very odd excuse given your prior posting, when you were almost zealous in your will to clear up rule issues. Again, like I said, this isn't conclusive proof that you're mafia, but it sets up the claim that I was really hoping you wouldn't make; the "i'm bad at mafia" claim. The clueless newbie persona is a rather common one with new players who are on mafia's side; its easy, low maintenance, and it rarely brings attention to yourself.

So yeah, this last post just made my suspicions worse, given that you confirmed pretty much every tentative theme I had noticed in your posts.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 19:40 GMT
#2956
K, catching up and might revote.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 19:49 GMT
#2962
Or he's not mafia and mafia are also cool with that.

Given his posting, however, that would be super unlikely.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 21:28 GMT
#2989
K, so in the last page we had pandain assume that DrH is town, which he wouldn't know if he's mafia, then pretend that plague doctors spread mrus or some shit?

So yeah, if we were 75% certain pandain was mafia before, we should be in the 99% region now. Given that, he should be killed today so we can move the bombs, there's no risk of our DT being able to yank our chain because we can set of the hatter bombs during the night and confirm him prior to the next undecided kill decision.

The only thing that worries me is that DrH/Pandain are in cahoots and are doing this to give coag the chance to get off his night ability, but I don't think coag particularly tried hard to mask the fact that he was a snot flinger or something. If coag's role has a night component as a tradeoff for flinging snot (maybe something related to the +1?) then this might make sense.

Anyways, changing votes, and I suggest other people do as well.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 21:33 GMT
#2991
Hence why having him not shut up would be beneficial to you if you were playing him as a gambit piece, especially with you being mayormmune to checks.

Anyways, we'll have more flips before we need to make a decision on any of these themes anyways. If coag's ability has some kind of value added night benefit, this might be important.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 22:07 GMT
#3035
On November 06 2010 06:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
i'm not mayormmune to checks

mayor isn't immune to rolechecks, thats part of the reason im a little suspicious about hyperbola. i suspected a mafia mayor candidate would pull back on their campaign when artanis said mayors can be rolechecked

Oh, my bad. I kinda skimmed through the first first 50 or so pages when I was subbed in.

I thought there was a blue post saying you'd be checked as mayor and not your normal role, but I guess I can ask LSB now that he's here.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 22:10 GMT
#3041
On November 06 2010 07:08 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
no mayor is just added to your role

so if i was a mafia goon i'd come up mafia goon mayor

if i was an add doctor i'd come up ADD Doctor Mayor

Cool beans.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 22:20 GMT
#3063
._. umm wtf r u doin
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 22:30 GMT
#3069
...

Oh wow.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 22:46 GMT
#3077
On November 06 2010 07:37 KtheZ wrote:
So now between Pandain and Coag, the pandain side is now down almost 6 votes; since Dr.H and Beneather switched. I guess it wont be confirming time for me.

You wouldn't be confirmed anyways.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 05 2010 23:18 GMT
#3102
That makes no sense.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 06 2010 00:05 GMT
#3125
Bomb*
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 06 2010 01:19 GMT
#3170
He's referring to the flavor text on the N3 post, but frankly I don't see that as being confirmatory.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 06 2010 01:31 GMT
#3190
Yeah, just checked lexpar's post history. He posted a bunch about it too. DrH is confirmed unless he was bussed N1.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 07 2010 04:38 GMT
#3314
On November 07 2010 12:17 youngminii wrote:
Holy shit lol, I didn't even realise it was night, looks like I changed my vote to Coag a bit late.

Anyway, I think it's safe to say Pandain's been supported/protected by Coag a lot more than a normal townie would have. Sorry Pandain but one of my votes goes to you. Unless you can convince me otherwise ofc.

Who else is there to choose from? I remember a case on Nemesis, can we get an update on him. Also, can someone do an analysis on L? I feel as if he's been a bit weak, if we look at him as a townie. His town play is usually very, very strong (targets and analyses scum well) but as far as I can remember, that hasn't been happening this game.

See you might have a problem attributing strong analysis to me when you forget that the case you've mentioned isn't attributed to me. So far I've actually produced the most comprehensive analysis of any person in the game, which was vetted by a bunch of people who died and flipped blue.

I've operated on very limited assumptions this game.

The first of which is that during the Aeres/Youngmiini melee, most of the involved parties were blue and that mafia were staying out of the problem. So far, everyone who's died from that group has flipped blue.

Second is that because of that, mafia would have been very, very quiet day 2. Go look at the people who flipped mafia since then: Divinek, Coag and Decuowhatever. All said the bare minimum, or in the case of Divinek, got modkilled for being flat out afk.

So where does that leave us?

DrH asked the thread to look up Nemesis. I did. He fit straight up into the middle of the qualities that all of the previous mafia members had, and what's more:

He admits to them. He admits to lightly pushing people. He admits to throwing around one liners. He flat out admits he's just watching the game. His response to this? Throw shit on me now that DrH, who supported the view that he was likely a good kill today, is dead.

Seems pretty open and shut on this one. The only question is whether or not we can find one of his scumbuddies to hang with him.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 07 2010 04:41 GMT
#3315
is* attributed.

Shouldn't be typin' posts after drugs, alcohol and women.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
November 07 2010 19:36 GMT
#3392
Just read the Meepak analysis. I've been suspicious of him every since his little burst of activity during Day 2, but I figured that Day 3's early DT reveal would quash any real discussion as mafia were going to hop aboard the "lets get brownie points for killing our own members" train, while blues with information roles would play quiet, because their daily objective was already satisfied.

But that's not really how D3 played out, so I'm kinda thrown for a loop.

Anyways, started writing this before a game of lol and I just refreshed to see that people are asking for meepak to roleclaim. Unless he's going to be killed, roleclaiming without a purpose is irrelevant.

But then I played another game and he's roleclaimed something completely unverifiable, and something that gives him an excuse for not being hit at night.

We've got a few suspects being bantered about, but it seems like people are discussing them alone, instead of in comparison with each other. Also: given the level of mrus, we might seriously want to think about whether or not double lynching will help us.

Thusfar we have 4 of 19 players infected by mrus. Given the 3 immunities, it would seem that we actually have 7 total infections up until this point. This gives an average infection rate of a bit over 2 per night, and an average immunity of 1 per night. Given that we've had 2 plague doctors die, I'd assume we have 1 left. This means some of the immunities which have popped up may have been self immunities granted by certain roles. Because of this its around 33% likely that we get another immunity.

So:

Tonight: 19 -> 17 players.
During the night we've had an average of 3-4 deaths per night. Lets say 3 for charity's sake.

Night 17->14

That's approximately a chopping of our numbers by 1/4th, so the immunities and currently infected pop will be cut by a similar amount as well. This leaves us likely at 3 infect, 2 immune. Then we add the 2 infected during the night, and we're at 14 players, 5 infected, 2 immune.

Based on this, Mrus seems to be under control for another day. It will, however, explode the night after. The only difference taken by not taking a double lynch under the lens of Mrus is that if we're relatively successful with out doc and pd coverage, we might actually be able to eek out another day, and have it not explode come day 5.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
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