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Okay, first off LSB, I know my name is very weird, but ghrur instead of ghur please. xD
Anyway, here's my thoughts on the possible suspects:
Suspect List for Mafia as red:
Bill Murray
-Spam... a lot
-Plays exactly like he stated he would if he were red
*a lot of one liners
*no content
-Could be Village Idiot, seems to want to get lynched
-Lots of unfounded Speculation
-Pandain's analysis was very good
Xelin
-Suddenly followed Bill Murray Despite not reading the posts
-Voted without concrete evidence
-Agrees with the PM mess BM set up, despite it not having concrete evidence AND after BB tells
BM to stop
Unless Brownbear used different formating for individual PM's, but I think this is unlikely. As of now I'm going to agree with voting for Bloody based on this.
Bloody joined the game later, and so the idea that his role PM might not be in standard with the rest is certainly plausible
-Followed BM despite all the Spam, and then procedes to defend him like a chum...
-Divinek is right, he's not forming ideas, not making claims on his own, just bandwagoning for kills
Misder
-Voted for ~Opz~ on a hunch instead of something concrete, why? We know Opz is a good player,
Misder knows it, does he want to get the intelligent players lynched first as Red?
-Accused Infundi (another good player) on unreliable evidence. Infundi posted good advice, but misder
tried to lynch him for it despite not saying why it was bad
-Also seems generally aggressive, watch these posts:
my suspicions aren't really big; they could be comepletely wrong, and I don't really have strong evidence
Personally, I don't see anything wrong about accusing on day 1. We all know that its really hard to find ev against people onday 1, but accusing generates responses, which is good.
And then he switches to vote for Opz...again, why? Also, in that former post, he said
I'll post my suspicions, maybe to generate discussion or something on day 1.
You technically can vote without any reason, but I always accuse along with vote. Voting without any analysis is pretty scummy in my book. Right now, I have some hunches on whos mafia, but I'm gonna hold back til there are more posts to work with
Okay, clear contradiction for why he voted for Opz. Also, where are these lists? He said he would post them, but they're not here. We as town have asked again and again for his lists and reasons, yet they still fail to appear. =/ I understand if he's busy, but come on, it's been 2 days.
He also said he always accuses with his votes, but what was his accusation on the first day? Random shot in the dark?
Crisis_
-Hard and a rock place <- what does this mean? He can't give out his role? He feared being checked?
being in second place for votes should've made him want to give a GOOD reason for not being mafia
Not say, I can't give one because you guys have to trust me.
I'll just tell you right now, I'm not red. -I'll tell you right now, I'm not a red. HOW? How can that be convincing in any way? Bad argument
No help.
Followed by Sort of. But I'm really not red, rofl. doesn't help at all
-Martyr style play, not good for town at all. Confuses us. We don't want to lynch a green,
but a red claiming that would also confuse us as to their true role. It's a good cover
for a red, it's a horrible thing to say as a green.
Oh and if you don't believe I'm not red, you can go ahead and lynch me to find out. Sheesh.
-No insightful posts, mainly just defending himself and posting a bit to stay alive.
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On October 08 2010 08:19 ghrur wrote:
Okay, first off LSB, I know my name is very weird, but ghrur instead of ghur please. xD
Sowwwy Ghrur.
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On October 08 2010 07:21 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 07:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:45 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:41 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
[quote]
or he'll be village idiot and bill murray wins and we lose.
why should we put our chance of winning this game in the hands of the mafia? we are not lynching someone who is a big candidate for village idiot. we are not doing that. We wouldn't be placing the game in the hands of the mafia. The mafia would want to kill BM at night as much as we do. The point is, the only reason why the mafia wouldn't kill BM is if BM is mafia. or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game. So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers. Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay! We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him. On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose. so lets clarify you are saying if mafia doesn't kill bill murray we will lynch him and because he is the VI mafia will lose? if bill murray isn't mafia and the mafia doesn't kill him what does the mafia stand to lose that we don't? in that scenario both the mafia and the town are under equal pressure and the mafia have the upper hand because they know bill isn't red and we don't We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan. The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do. Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view. Assume we are following through with our plan. It's Night 2. Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them. They either have two options 1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster 2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red. Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia. As for the Town. It's Day 3. From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post. If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia. What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is redMafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information.
I agree with this 100%. This will give us a better answer then having a vigilante kill him. Mafia will want to make sure that he's taken out if they even think he's the village idiot. It doesn't guarantee that there's a possibility of ignoring the thread and going for someone else, but it would seem highly likely for them to halt losing altogether. (would be so embarrassing for town and mafia to have 2 VI's lynched)
Killing BM today should be out of the question, and though I don't really want Xelin to be lynched he hasn't contributed and doesn't even want to explain or defend his position. Hopefully at the least he will flip a townie, mafia if we're really lucky, but I doubt it.
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On October 08 2010 08:29 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 08:19 ghrur wrote:
Okay, first off LSB, I know my name is very weird, but ghrur instead of ghur please. xD Sowwwy Ghrur.
It's okay <3
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On October 08 2010 08:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 07:21 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:45 LSB wrote:
[quote]
We wouldn't be placing the game in the hands of the mafia. The mafia would want to kill BM at night as much as we do.
The point is, the only reason why the mafia wouldn't kill BM is if BM is mafia. or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game. So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers. Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay! We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him. On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose. so lets clarify you are saying if mafia doesn't kill bill murray we will lynch him and because he is the VI mafia will lose? if bill murray isn't mafia and the mafia doesn't kill him what does the mafia stand to lose that we don't? in that scenario both the mafia and the town are under equal pressure and the mafia have the upper hand because they know bill isn't red and we don't We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan. The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do. Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view. Assume we are following through with our plan. It's Night 2. Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them. They either have two options 1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster 2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red. Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia. As for the Town. It's Day 3. From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post. If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia. What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is redMafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information. I agree with this 100%. This will give us a better answer then having a vigilante kill him. Mafia will want to make sure that he's taken out if they even think he's the village idiot. It doesn't guarantee that there's a possibility of ignoring the thread and going for someone else, but it would seem highly likely for them to halt losing altogether. (would be so embarrassing for town and mafia to have 2 VI's lynched) Killing BM today should be out of the question, and though I don't really want Xelin to be lynched he hasn't contributed and doesn't even want to explain or defend his position. Hopefully at the least he will flip a townie, mafia if we're really lucky, but I doubt it.
Do you really feel Xelin is the strongest candidate for tonights lynch? He has a tenuous connection with Bill Murray and BB implied he might have a blue/red role. If BM is mafia then I'd say Xelin probably is as well but I don't want to risk lynching a blue until we have more information on BM if that makes sense.
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On October 08 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 08:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:On October 08 2010 07:21 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 07:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
[quote]
or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game. So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him Vig hit, we've already went over this Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers. Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves. Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay! We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him. On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose. so lets clarify you are saying if mafia doesn't kill bill murray we will lynch him and because he is the VI mafia will lose? if bill murray isn't mafia and the mafia doesn't kill him what does the mafia stand to lose that we don't? in that scenario both the mafia and the town are under equal pressure and the mafia have the upper hand because they know bill isn't red and we don't We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan. The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do. Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view. Assume we are following through with our plan. It's Night 2. Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them. They either have two options 1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster 2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red. Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia. As for the Town. It's Day 3. From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post. If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia. What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is redMafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information. I agree with this 100%. This will give us a better answer then having a vigilante kill him. Mafia will want to make sure that he's taken out if they even think he's the village idiot. It doesn't guarantee that there's a possibility of ignoring the thread and going for someone else, but it would seem highly likely for them to halt losing altogether. (would be so embarrassing for town and mafia to have 2 VI's lynched) Killing BM today should be out of the question, and though I don't really want Xelin to be lynched he hasn't contributed and doesn't even want to explain or defend his position. Hopefully at the least he will flip a townie, mafia if we're really lucky, but I doubt it. Do you really feel Xelin is the strongest candidate for tonights lynch? He has a tenuous connection with Bill Murray and BB implied he might have a blue/red role. If BM is mafia then I'd say Xelin probably is as well but I don't want to risk lynching a blue until we have more information on BM if that makes sense.
If Xelin is blue he should be doing a really shitty job at defending himself. He needs to do more especially if he knows how valuable his role is, if he is indeed blue. If he's green then it's less likely he will fight for his life, perhaps even less than if he were mafia.
This passive behavior isn't right though. Xelin doesn't play like this.
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So I am currently voting for Misder as the proof that others have posted on him seems more reasonable than the accusations against any other player currently.
The plan on getting rid of BM seems reasonable as well, but most of the analysis today has been wasted on what to do with him instead of finding Reds.
Xelin seemed quick to bandwagon with BM but besides that he doesn't seem to be very suspicious. He could've just been slow on realizing how ridiculous BM's plans and not just bandwagoning for a kill.
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Also note that I have no idea how these players have played in previous games, so I can't make references like that, or if something is strange or off about someone's playstyle.
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On October 08 2010 09:57 kane]deth[ wrote:
So I am currently voting for Misder as the proof that others have posted on him seems more reasonable than the accusations against any other player currently.
Um what proof? Like what did you find most persuasive?
I swear that I don't remember anyone formally accusing him. We're just pressuring him
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I suppose proof was a bad word to use there.
The accusations that he made against the 'higher tier' players baselessly and his general aggression. Basically the post that Ghrur made. Currently he's just making trouble by trying to lynch players at seemingly random.
I'm also lost on one thing; is the only way to find a players posts is to find a post of the player and then click profile?
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On October 08 2010 10:21 kane]deth[ wrote:
I suppose proof was a bad word to use there.
The accusations that he made against the 'higher tier' players baselessly and his general aggression. Basically the post that Ghrur made. Currently he's just making trouble by trying to lynch players at seemingly random.
I'm also lost on one thing; is the only way to find a players posts is to find a post of the player and then click profile?
search for the title of this thread in search and then you can filter the search results by poster name
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=kane］deth[
just replace after the "=" the name of the player Kane.
Easier way if you know their exact screen name.
Anyway...Misder is being...Misder...
-___-
Guys, seriously, we need to uh...step up?
Ghrur needs to post more (I liked your post, and content like that would be better appreciated.)
BC, what are you up to right now? Who are you looking at? What are your suggestions for upcoming night actions? When would you like some butt sex? We know Xelin is better. Kinda upsetting he just wont play openly. We can't exactly be private this game guys.
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or just go in the top right where there's that little search icon and click it for advanced search details and search for their user name, by content, under tl mafia
whatever works
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And Meeple. Plz give me some information as to your suspects. Who you're looking at and why?
You haven't been posting too much actual information, and have only went at cynan and pandain possible connection? Plz continue, I might be persuaded to vote for Cynan quite easily, AND I would like to know what you think sir.
Again. I'm fine going after Misder. Will be changing my vote shortly. Definitely off of Xelin.
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Yeah we're not going to lynch BM tommorow, LSB. If I was mafia I would honestly kill someone else and see if the town lives up to it. Do you really think we would?
Misder.
Summary:
Overall, Misder is a suspicious character. He has some mild contradictions, but the only one that really stands out is his stance on lynching Xelin despite saying he didn't want to vote for an inactive. Besides that, another scum trait I notice is he doesn't explain stuff, so he brings up accusations and then no reasoning. In addition, he has played a stark contrast in his previous two games(mafia) from his first game(town.) The misder in the first game was decisive and contributive, while this misder prefers to take a backseat. A common trait of Mafia Misder is appealing to others, inactivity(discounting his defense in XXX) and to a certain extent wishy washiness.
I would be alright with lynching Misder tonight, however I urge you all to talk about it and give more time for analysis of others. I'll be doing more analysis hopefully later.
Analysis of his posts:
On October 04 2010 13:30 Misder wrote:If we randomly pick, we might get the village idiot, if there is one. I think we need some sort of discussion to try and find the reds. I remember last game where I totally blew my cover as mafia on day 1, and all I did was try and act normal, so it's possible to distiguish who is mafia and who is not (although it depends on how good we are at red hunting). Show nested quote +On October 04 2010 12:10 BrownBear wrote:On October 04 2010 11:23 Foolishness wrote:On October 04 2010 10:26 BrownBear wrote:
Incognito the Mighty Townie is now dead.
Qatol The Jailkeeper/Blue Operative is now dead.
BrownBear The Mayor/Blue Operative is now dead.
Artanis[xp] The Red Operative Leader is now dead.
Flamewheel The Green Cutie is now dead :3
Haha one person in the game is already dead. Who? If I tell, will that person get mad? BrownBear, you know who it is 
Vauge, but not really suscipcious as of yet. I note that he didn't really contribute with this besides stating the obvious, but nothing incriminating yet.
Note this was only a few posts after the game begun, so he didn't really have anything to talk about n.n
On October 04 2010 16:27 Misder wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2010 15:13 CynanMachae wrote:
Well if random pick is chosen, how would you suggest doing it so that it's fair and objective?
And Misder, there isn't really much red hunting possible on the first day... I've never seen a random pick do much except lynch a townie. Then again, lynching an inactive also almost always leads to lynching a townie. IMO the only benefit from random is that if somehow, the votes start stacking on a mafia member randomly, but thats very very unlikely. Ehh, I kinda disagree on the no red hunting on the first day. I don't know how good the mafia are, but if they were as noob as me, its possible to tell who is mafia on day 1 (thanks to Ver for that analysis). Right now, we need to get people to post. So, does anyone have a plan?
Notes how lynching inactives and randoms almost always leads to lynching a townie. This post implies he wants to scum hunt on day one, rather than the others. Asks for a plan.
On October 05 2010 12:34 Misder wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 08:31 ghrur wrote:
Speaking of lynching, do we have to accuse before we can vote on the person? Or can we just type ##vote xxxxxxx?
If we don't need to accuse, should we do so anyway in the thread to start a discussion?
Also, I support the idea of non-random lynching. Random lynching has a greater chance of hitting blue or green instead of red. Random lynching also doesn't promote discussion which means there's less of a posting trail for later in the game.
For non-random lynching, I suggest lynching a suspicious active instead of an inactive. Inactives could be simply bored by the Day1 stuff, but become really useful later. An example would be the recent RAM game where Xelin was inactive in the beginning, but found a mafia member on his first accusation. You technically can vote without any reason, but I always accuse along with vote. Voting without any analysis is pretty scummy in my book. Right now, I have some hunches on whos mafia, but I'm gonna hold back til there are more posts to work with. So, I'm probably going to vote for an inactive, unless something major happens. Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 09:29 SouthRawrea wrote:
This game:
There are several differences in this setup than regular mafia games in case you can't be bothered to read the role descriptions.
1) Detective must wait until Night 2 for investigation which is frankly not helpful as it is 1 less report overall per detective.
2) Vigilante gets their shot or bat back if they overlap with mafia. Not a huge deal as an overlap isn't that likely.
3) Godfather can fake Village Idiot. Frankly as some have stated before this may be a bit OP and is a very good reason for Vigilante to save their bat.
4) Roleblocker now cannot block someone twice in a row which make DT claiming a little more viable especially once mafia loses a KP.
5) Mafia can practically save a KP for the next day while the poisoner is still alive.
Three huge things to watch out for
1) Like stated earlier, the Vigilante must not shoot until we get a Village Idiot report as it is the only way of safely killing a potential Village Idiot/Godfather as town.
2) Mafia can continuously use poison from any point in the game and have on of their players claim hit Veteran. The mafia will then be able to unleash 3 NK at any one night from that point onwards while having 1 NK the night before the claim and 2 NK for every night in between. This can be dangerous if town is too trusting of the hit claim and/or forgets about the 3 NK.
Ex: Night 2 : 1 poison 1 shot
Day 2: 1 death, mafia claims hit
Night 3: 1 poison 1 shot
Day 3: 2 deaths
Night 4 1 poison 1 shot
Day 4: 2 deaths
Night 5: 2 shot
Day 5: 3 deaths
3) Finally in a Lylo situation with Village idiot still alive, mafia can have a joint-win with the Village Idiot by lynching him. This will result in the day ending with both the Village Idiot and the Mafia's win requirements being fulfilled. (VI gets lynched and mafia # = town #) Detectives seem to have less of a role in this game. They can't make town circles and they lose a turn of finding red. Protactinium stated that detectives should shout out once they find a red. I think I agree with this as 1) there is a huge lynch target that day and 2) medics can protect the dectective, so effectively, we have a "town circle" without the need of PMs. Vilgilante hits that overlap with mafia would probably indicate that the person getting hit is acting like the VI, since lynching the VI leads to both the town and the mafia loss. I don't know how this helps, but thats my thought. Godfather as VI doesn't make much sense to me, just because there are vigilantes in the game (we should probably assume this as BB and Artanis making a game without vigilantes in games with a VI is pretty unlikely... that really would be OP). I think the biggest concern is if Godfather claims bulletproof. Vig wouldn't want to waste their hit trying to see if the claim is true because of the possibility of a VI, and a bulletproof is beneficial to the town and is an unlikely lynch target because the mafia can't kill (except poison). Aye! I forgot about roleblockers. So above, if DT claims a red, its pretty much assured that mafia will roleblock the DT. I've personally never seen roleblockers do anything that turned the tide of the game, so I'm not exactly sure how important this is. One thing to note is that roleblockers can get rid of the bulletproof vest, so if you are one, dont claim in the thread, unless you get shot. (Just realized this kinda contridicts what I said before where godfather would claim bulletproof... but if godfather claims bulletproof in thread, its likely that a medic will try and save him) I agree with SR. I think that its gonna be really suspicious to anyone who claims to get hit Night 1 though. Of course, claim if you really do get hit as veteran, but be prepared to defend yourself. Do we get to know who gets poisoned to death and who gets shot to death? The VI and mafia collaboration thing only will happen late game for them to have a joint win, is that correct?
Here is a long interesting post. Let's note a couple of things.
1.He's going to "probably vote for an inactive." Yet he said he was against voting for an inactive. Now, this may seem suscipcious in itself but note that Misder is one of those who listens, and decides(if town.) This was more than a page after his previous post, and during which came after a whole slew of several people in favor of lynching inactives (click on each word for seperate post)
So it's not unsuprising he changed his mind, but should still be noted.
On October 05 2010 13:03 Misder wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 12:47 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'd rather you post your suspects now Mr. Misder?
What if mafia slay you at night?
=/ I think I rather wait. First, my suspicions aren't really big; they could be comepletely wrong, and I don't really have strong evidence. Plus, I'm still looking at different play styles from previous games. Second, this way, the mafia doesn't know whether I'm right or wrong, so if they really are scared, they're going to have to kill me If you guys really want, I'll post my suspicions, maybe to generate discussion or something on day 1. Which reminds me, how do we decide which inactive to lynch?
This is where I'm starting to get suscipcious. If you have some hunches, why not post it and put it up to debate? It's clear we've wanted to. Also note he's been deferring to the public. It's always "oh what you say." Which isn't in itself a bad thing, but quite noteworthy. Plus that whole "oh, mafia will be scared!" is a bunch of fadoodle since why would mafia be scared of what you "might" be thinking and you dont have any suscipcions. This post is suscipcious.
On October 06 2010 06:54 Misder wrote:
Personally, I don't see anything wrong about accusing on day 1. We all know that its really hard to find ev against people onday 1, but accusing generates responses, which is good.
So, why haven't you posted your suscpcions.
On October 06 2010 09:11 Misder wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 07:39 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 06 2010 07:34 Pandain wrote:
I still believe Infun should be lynched if anyone, based around the fact he's technically off the "inactive list" while he hasn't really posted any content at all besides a link to a site.
My main reason is that I don't think we should lynch Cynan, and Infun is the best person we have. I think we should make a stand right here, and everyone should start to vote for someone, since the way it stands now it is too easy for mafia to manipulate the votes and it will be 100% NOT a scum lynched.
What information do we really get from lynching Infund? He's been posting information to assist DT's and Medics in carrying out their role effectively, I don't think he's been totally useless at all. We shouldn't be lynching by what info we get from the lynch; most of the time, the conclusions are wrong, and the whole point of the game is to lynch the mafia. Infund only posted once this entire time, and it was a link to a guide that could have been found by googling. He didn't really post anything at all. His one quote: Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 04:39 Infundibulum wrote:You are correct, Element 91. But Amber is also right that there are ways for the detective to push lynches on reds he checks, without role-claiming. If you are a detective I suggest you get creative; only roleclaim if you feel it is necessary. If you are a detective, you should probably read this page (if you haven't already) just to get an idea of the ways in which other people (namely mafias and medics) will be trying to find you in the thread: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=JEEP's_Tells_for_Finding_the_CopI think that's a pretty good comprehensive guide, but if there's any problems in it hopefully a more experienced player can point them out. I'm really undecided who to vote for at this point. I think right now, its pretty useless trying to lynch an inactive. Theres about 4 hrs left, and the whole point of lynching an inactive is to pressure them to vote. I'm still going to vote for XeliN because he's played many games and I dont understand why hes not here.
This post is suscpicious as well. Now he's against lynching an inactive, but for I suppose a decent reason: we can't pressure them to talk anymore. That was one of the reasons I started to pressure a (perceived) "lurker" instead(Infund). However, Misder then goes and votes Xelin, and goes against what he just said int he previous sentence.
On October 06 2010 09:18 Misder wrote:
I would vote Infund, but I've played with him mafia last game, and he does a lot more accusing and spam in that game. He's not acting like he was when he was mafia before; he may have changed his playstyle, but that's pretty unlikely.
Also, I would like to say that a lot of mafia members like to post a lot in the beginning, seemingly to help out, but they hide later in the day. (someone like ~Opz~, for example, I've got suspicions on him; I don't know if they are good feelings or bad feelings).
Alright contribution. Worthwhile to note Infund ended up being innocent. However, that last sentence makes me do a double take because he again brings up suscpcions, but doesn't say anything. And I'm still waiting for that "list of suspects."
On October 06 2010 09:22 Misder wrote:
Actually, I’m just going to vote ~Opz~ right now instead of XeliN, just because of this tiny suspicion. I don’t know if I truly believe in that he is mafia, but I think he has a better chance at being mafia than XeliN.
Again, I don't get it. What is the suscpicion. You bring stuff up and don't explain it. That's incrediably scummy to me.
Previous Games:
Townie (BM's game)
In this game we see a very different misder. This is his first game, but the only instance of him being townie. Now, let's see some traits.
1.He's active(or at least contributive) Note this post he gives reasons for voting, while making a decisive action. He is constantly taking posts and reflecting on them. Another one, and we see a very townie Misder. He is decisive, and coherent(aka clear reasons.) Compare that with Misder's current posts. Wishy washy, appealing to the town. Last game as mafia he constantly belittled himself as well, and while he has learned to not be so obvious you can tell he's taking a backseat. Why?
He's just so different Note he's saying "this is what I think, this is what we should do." This is what townies will do, they actively try to help solve this ginormous mystery and Misder in particular had been analyzing that game. What is this misder doing? Sitting back, not giving any reasons for voting, wishy washy.
Comparison: Misder in that game played an inactive, yet contributive townie. He had detailed posts, made decisive decisions, and constantly gave his thoughts and reasons for what he did. The misder in this game has preffered to be lurking and inactive, with really only one okay post. Yet even in that there were problems. (Hehe thank goodness I decided to compare with before.)
Mafia (Mafia XXX)
In this game half of his posts are defending himself, and all of those are the long ones(excluding the poor analysis he did on Larjarse.) Here' an analysis by Ver on some of his posts, a much better player than I n.n
On August 26 2010 13:07 Ver wrote:T Misder : Here is a great example of a mafia slipping up very obviously in day 1. Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 13:13 Misder wrote:@Divenek I'll try to be as active as possible. I was better during the end of that last mafia game. At least I was right for my lynching targets I'm not used to being active early game, so lets try this out. From my last two games, it seemed like we always tried to vote for inactives, except for the XXIII where town voted for a one liner mistake. We shouldn't do that. Because just because you make one mistake early doesn't mean you are mafia, just more likely. We should always be suspicious, but not impulsive. And the other game was where we had to vote for a mayor and a pardoner, so people had to talk. As for strategies in the beginning... no idea. I'm still learning, (I still haven't done what you told me to do BC sorry!) Show nested quote +On August 06 2010 15:45 Misder wrote:xD I'm sorry! I'll try to post better, but for me, it's hard to post in the beginning of the game... Vote count is: (3) Bill Murray (1) Divinek (1) Misder (1) Chezinu (1) Youngminii On August 06 2010 14:40 larjarse wrote:BillMurray, right after he got his two "random" votes against him wrote:
I proclaim the Random Voting Stage hereby dead.
I am voting not for randomness, An obvious reason to stick with my vote. This leaves my suspicions on BM. If everyone randomized, BM would be more likely to get a higher vote count (due to already having 2 votes on him). I'm not voting yet though; don't want to be impulsive... These are two posts full of flagrant errors. This is the first easy mafia catch the town could've had; let's go through it: -Note the multiple apologies, excuses, the specific mention that he is still learning, and overall meek tone. Newer mafia players will try to emphasize their inexperience as a way of overcompensating. Think about this from the angle of being a townie: why would you want to say all this? What's the point in painting yourself to be some noob who is useless and shouldn't be listened to? If you want to be of use to the town, apologizing a bunch and acting all sorry for doing nothing wrong is hardly going to make yourself listened to. In fact, it will make people ignore you instead. Someone who can't even convince themself is hardly going to convince anyone else. That would be great for a mafia who wants to hide though, wouldn't it? On that angle it makes perfect sense from the mafia's perspective. You want to find reasons that make you look less suspicious without looking like you are trying too hard to do so. See how Misder isn't even suspicious before this but he's trying to make himself look less suspicious. That's entirely mafia rationale. A townie might want to defend himself if someone accuses him, but only a mafia feels inherently guilty and has a need, perhaps even a desire to defend himself before he's even a blip on anyone's radar. It's a very common pattern that I've seen many, many times.
Appealing to others, taking backseat. In this game half of his posts were defending himself, and all of the others were one paragraph every now and then.
Comparison: As a matter of fact, I find misder to be even less active in our game than Flamewheel's. Misder has even taken more of a backseat, posting without saying why, but always leaving himself an out in the way of asking others what to do.
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Also, everyone vote double lynch. Everyone who doesn't gets an immediate +1 in my mafia checklist.
A couple of things I want to see:
1.Someone else doing some good analysis besides just I(because I know mine even aren't that great)
2. Get some real disccusion going
3. Misder post his suspects
4. Meeple explain why he's voting Cynan.
5.Unvote Misder for the time being so then we can still vote double lynch.
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On October 08 2010 07:04 LSB wrote:LMAO Pandain are you getting too trigger happy? Are you trying to start bandwagons? Show nested quote +On October 08 2010 06:57 Pandain wrote:And well well, what do we have here LSB? I was looking over Infun, not expecting much, when I noticed you left out some posts of his. On October 06 2010 11:08 Infundibulum wrote:On October 06 2010 10:58 meeple wrote:
... lots of sudden votes for protactinium... I mean... smurfing isn't that annoying is it?
What's the deal with infinitestory's no-post vote... get in here man! Not just infinitestory, ghrur as well. You guys better post your reasoning for these votes on Element 91. On October 06 2010 12:24 Infundibulum wrote:On October 06 2010 12:14 infinitestory wrote:On October 06 2010 12:09 Infundibulum wrote:On October 06 2010 12:07 NukeTheBunnys wrote:
On that note, Im changing my vote to Protactinium. I don't want the mafia to be able to swing the vote away from a mafioso, and there certainly are enough no votes so far to swing the vote to just about anyone. so Im just going to put the leader further ahead. Also dealing with smurfs does not seem fun. Wait. So you don't think Protact is mafia, but you're still voting him anyway? He's worried that if Protact is mafia, the mafia will pull some shenanigans and change the leader away from him before lynch. this is awful reasoning. we want to lynch the people that we think are mafia. so far i haven't seen a convincing case made against Protact, and there's definitely no consensus. all there is is a bandwagon. How about we flip it: I'm worried that Protact is town and that we're going to lynch a townie, putting us even farther behind after modkills. I voted for gruhr because he bandwagoned on Protact, and this is a huge contradiction to his pretty well thought out posts earlier. Two posts with an underlying suscipcion of Ghrur. Now, this in itself wouldn't be interesting, but the fact you left them out is. I'm going to analyze LSB as well tonight. Okay, go accuse Ghur. Infun literally said that he was accusing Ghur because he "sounded funny". I'm not going to defend Ghur, but nor am I going to pretend that Infun was seriously attacking Ghur I don't know about you, but to me, "Sounding funny" is a pretty lame argument And as for the second post. Obviously Infun is prodding NuketheBunnies. I just find no reason to be redundant Wait.. do you mean Infinitestory? Could you point out where he attacked Infinitestory? Thanks Read before you post
I feel like I've deserved the right to make a triple post, though I'll try to stay away. Read those two posts by Infun. Those are valid reasons. That other post was just a joke post. However, you seem to have let out this and the fact that Infun voted for him. I think Infun would be seriously attacking ghur(at the very least seriously considering)
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I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I'm such a good target for the mafia to start a bandwagon. I don't know if this is a good thing that the town is not impulsive or a bad thing that the town doesn't really like to do analysis... (well ghrur did, and i think he makes good points). And pretty much yeah, I took a shot in the dark, and I think I pretty much shot myself instead.
Well this is what I had a while ago, but I never posted
"~Opz~
Ok, I’m looking at him from the perspective of Mafia XXX, the most recent normal game. In this game ~Opz~ was tracker. I guess this isn’t the most amazing analysis, and most people also act differently from a green townie and a blue, but I’ll try.
In day 1, as a blue ~Opz~ told the town what to do, coming up with plans, participating in the actual crux of what was going on.
On August 07 2010 02:26 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Okay. Vigi should claim Day 2 IMO because he can't use his night kill til night 2. The vigi can openly suggest his target, meds protect target. If 2 people die that night, and dude is protected from a hit then BAM, we have a huge circle formed with meds confirming the vigi, DT's can openly claim to vigi or use a mouth, Bus Driver should stay hidden I feel...except to maybe the meds.
And if it is a mafia ploy? We'd have netted two mafia. The fake vigi claimer, and the dude who was hit by the vigi because he would have to have been protected. All medics should protect the guy getting vigi'd so they get the protection message, or mafia would have to use all KP to stop the plan, GIVING us quite a few more days...
He never actually contributes in this game on Day 1, just blames all of the newcomers."
So my analysis of him before was when he was a blue role, pretty much irrelevant... I didn't look back at games even older, when I should have. When I actually looked at him more in dept than my intuition and one day of the game where he was blue, I've come to a conclusion that ~Opz~ is most likely town.
This is his quote from Mafia XXIII where he was actually townie.
On July 18 2010 15:34 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2010 08:12 Jayme wrote:On July 18 2010 08:03 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
RNG lynch is dumb because you have more of a chance to land on a townie, and then he could be a helpful townie.
if we lynch an inactive we're killing someone who probably would not have helped us anyway
however, i don't want to lynch someone that would just get modkilled since that's obviously a waste.
Bill, how many votes can someone miss before they get zapped? As far as I know they can't miss any votes at all. We have more of a chance to land on a townie with any day 1 method we choose simply due to the fact that there are 24 townies and 6 mafia...there is no way of avoiding this. As a matter of fact I would say we have a better chance of hitting a good red player through RNG because I mean...who's to say that this "good townie" isn't just a red being a good townie. I understand lynching an inactive is killing someone who wouldn't have helped anyway but you're still doing just that...just about guaranteeing a green lynch which is completely pointless. As I said before I'm willing to go with either, there isn't much we could do. The issue I see with RNG is verifying if it's actually RNG. Actually....I'm done for this....Let me read a little more and we'll see who I want to die.... Also, I'm tired of these idiotic plans. We can pm. Dt, check someone PM them, pass turn, check someone PM them and the other person, pass turn. Quit playing like idiots and realize the benefits of having PMs....Nubby ass mafioso. And go back and look at games with PM's day one, no body does anything that day... The best thing I could say is everyone Roleclaim to me, and lynch me today...Or wait til tomorrow and do it. I'd inform of match ups, over counts, and die out as proof. How does that sound? I can send the PM out, and inform before death of everyone who doesn't respond, over counts of roles, ect. ect. I could be checked night one if that would be a problem, (wouldn't recommend organized multi checking though) and lynched day 2. Even if I was god father, god father would be out and too many blues to snipe with a list of roles and over claims. *yawn* But I don't really wanna die too bad, or abuse how easy this game could be.
~Opz~ has a condescending tone this mafia game, just like he does in this game. When I was reading through his posts in XXIII, its mostly yelling at people. Also, I believe that he is town because of he said that Artanis wrote Townie on his PM. If he was mafia, he wouldn't make such a huge claim.
As for BM, I believe that he is VI. BM spammed most of Mafia XXX also, and he was ninja then. Question, what is the point of using an important vig shot on a supposed VI? Can't we just not lynch the VI and be done with? Or are we just afraid that then, mafia members can pose as VI and not get lynched?
So question: Can't the mafia not kill BM if they believe that BM is not VI? Also, if BM is VI and tomorrow we double lynch him, don't we also lose? We're are depending on the mafia for this lynch to work, and I don't really like it. Also, mafia wouldn't be killing who they believe to be townies, and BM is definitely not playing like he is blue
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Actually, I feel like I've been more active day 1 in this game than in the other games. But then I dropped off.
Pretty much, I agree with what everyone is saying about me not posting a list of who I think is mafia is true. The list comprised of intuition, however much that matters in this game. I think this game I've tried to analyse people from my perspective of being mafia, and didn't realize that other people think differently. Well, I don't know if you still want my list from day 1 since it doesn't mean much and most of its suspicion based on intuition, but it comprised of ~Opz~, DH, and Infund. Well, we know that infund is town, so that goes to show how bad I am at scum hunting...
And this may seem contridictory again, but where is kingjames? He was active day 1, and now hes gone.
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On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote:In day 1, as a blue ~Opz~ told the town what to do, coming up with plans, participating in the actual crux of what was going on. Show nested quote +On August 07 2010 02:26 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Okay. Vigi should claim Day 2 IMO because he can't use his night kill til night 2. The vigi can openly suggest his target, meds protect target. If 2 people die that night, and dude is protected from a hit then BAM, we have a huge circle formed with meds confirming the vigi, DT's can openly claim to vigi or use a mouth, Bus Driver should stay hidden I feel...except to maybe the meds.
And if it is a mafia ploy? We'd have netted two mafia. The fake vigi claimer, and the dude who was hit by the vigi because he would have to have been protected. All medics should protect the guy getting vigi'd so they get the protection message, or mafia would have to use all KP to stop the plan, GIVING us quite a few more days... He never actually contributes in this game on Day 1, just blames all of the newcomers."
Oh yeah, he never posted a long thing or anything. That long post isn't contributing! It's a farce! And what are you talking about because hes yelling at everyone that he must be town? He does that every game.
On October 08 2010 10:51 Misder wrote:
I'm actually surprised not too many people are voting for me, considering the fact that I did contridict myself twice; once when I said that I vote with reason (well technically I did... intuition and my limited knowledge on how mafia players work) and once when I said that mafia members are the ones who die out into the thread (which I basically disappeared from). I
So if you knew you contradicted yourself twice why did you post it? And why are you saying your such a good lynch? You're just like "Oh...hey...you're wrong, but I don't really care. Go ahead." Wheres the decisive townie!
I'm going to be watching Sen pwn, by the time I get back I want some good answers. And some feedback from everyone.
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EPT
