EPTBut we haven't hit this level of play consistently in our games yet which is why I only mod with majority lynch from now on.
How to Improve: Mafia XXX Analysis - Page 2
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
But we haven't hit this level of play consistently in our games yet which is why I only mod with majority lynch from now on. | ||
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Roffles
Pitcairn19291 Posts
I have to say the best way to approach Mafia games, especially if you've participated in numerous games is to maintain the same approach to each game. If you're generally active as Green, but all of a sudden you just lurk, you raise numerous flags. No matter what your playstyle is (Shit poor, great analysis), if you maintain consistency, you'll go far. It's like playing poker. The less you give away, the harder it is for people to make a read on you. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
 but i do my best! NO REGRETS!great read, ill try to take your advice! | ||
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XeliN
United Kingdom1755 Posts
A hell of alot of information into analysing peoples posts and attitudes and I'll definitely be rereading this many times. | ||
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
Me and Chez had both tracked Hesmyrr to me. Foolishness had also long since outed me as head of the circle. =/ | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
-Xelin was a friendly neighbor, meaning he could only have been roleblocker or framer. this is wrong, as we knew he wasn't a roleblocker because my investigation didn't fail also, godfathers cant be tracked iirc, and he was tracked, so it left only framer (which i ended up killing) | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On August 28 2010 10:04 Hesmyrr wrote: tl;dr version of pretty much since play is so weak it heavily relies on luck | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On August 28 2010 11:02 Divinek wrote: pretty much since play is so weak it heavily relies on luck That isn't exactly true. There are players who can nudge the odds to their side. It isn't always enough, but there is a reason Ver has never lost a TL mafia game. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On August 28 2010 10:04 Hesmyrr wrote: tl;dr version of Not really. What it boils down to is the fate of the top level pro-town players. If they are killed early/get spammed out/nobody listens to them/mafia muddy the waters so that they are effectively ignored, mafia loses. If mafia plays passively/doesn't manage to kill off the top pro-town players/town doesnt start killing each other off then town wins. Its all about game atmosphere, and a handful of players. Which makes things appear to be very volatile as you suggest. | ||
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Hesmyrr
Canada5776 Posts
On August 29 2010 05:06 Incognito wrote: 5 stars as expected. Really long but also very informative. Massive props to Ver. Not really. What it boils down to is the fate of the top level pro-town players. If they are killed early/get spammed out/nobody listens to them/mafia muddy the waters so that they are effectively ignored, mafia loses. If mafia plays passively/doesn't manage to kill off the top pro-town players/town doesnt start killing each other off then town wins. Its all about game atmosphere, and a handful of players. Which makes things appear to be very volatile as you suggest. AWESOME! 100% victory rate.  I think I understand. Kind of curious about who you would choose to refer as "top level" players though. It would probably help me to know whose words I should pay more specific attention to. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Look at TL Mafia XX as an example. In this game, I as the mafia leader managed to kill zero blue roles (excluding random bodyguards). By the end of the game, it was really clear the town was going to win since all the blue roles were known and the majority of townies were dead. Just look at the second post at the current player list to see what I mean. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On August 29 2010 01:09 Qatol wrote: That isn't exactly true. There are players who can nudge the odds to their side. It isn't always enough, but there is a reason Ver has never lost a TL mafia game. well you good players hardly ever play, or at least this last while | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On August 29 2010 01:09 Qatol wrote: That isn't exactly true. There are players who can nudge the odds to their side. It isn't always enough, but there is a reason Ver has never lost a TL mafia game. Ver imba. | ||
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
I believe it, especially after his map analysis write-ups. I mean... wow. | ||
Ver
United States2186 Posts
On August 27 2010 22:40 XeliN wrote: From the way you've phrased things you seem to have a certain amount of distaste for the way the as you sarcastically call it "almighty town circle" played. I disagree and think we played well and also disagree with some of your points of analysis, I think you make some assumptions that you do not outline both in suggesting there is no reason for the town to trust the town circle and also in your perceptions on foolishness, but other than that was great to read. A hell of alot of information into analysing peoples posts and attitudes and I'll definitely be rereading this many times. Ah sorry for the sarcasm and don't take it personally, I got pretty whimsical writing this as it times as it seemed to never end and it seemed I didn't take that part out. I didn't write this piece to insult people but I meant to forcefully challenge commonly held beliefs to get people to reflect and change them to improve the overall level of play. The guiding problem of TL mafia is that people get lucky and reach a correct conclusion by incorrect (i,e unreliable) methods or they beat poor sides with bad strategies or get very lucky, and then incorrectly make the assumption that whatever they did is good because it worked. It's like in BW/SC2 you can beat really bad players with basically anything you want, but once you start playing solid and top players the trash builds won't hold up. In short if people want to improve they need to review past games more thoroughly and not take everything at a superficial glance. I have no idea what you mean by assumptions, sorry. It is quite possible though that I had planned to write something else and didn't end up doing so due to the length/forgetting. As for the game and the plan, let's go through a scenario: What would happen if a skilled analyst was on the mafia and 6 blues were dead by day 2 and the last by night 3? This has happened before, many times, and in much harder circumstances. The blues in this game were very vulnerable because of the circle (making it very hard to stay hidden) and just from overall play (hence a good game to learn basic analysis from). Even if they weren't top level and maybe only killed 4 blues by day 2, the situation would be very grim. People would be pointing fingers left and right looking for the mafia informant (there usually isn't) and the town would inevitably mislynch because they wouldn't be focused. If you didn't have a 'confirmed innocent' plan, some of the blues might not have given themselves away so easily. Also, you'd still have an additional nights worth of actions instead of wasting them all to confirm people. Then add in all the easy ways the mafia had to take advantage that I explained in the piece and it's very hard to try to justify that this plan would hold up in a game with stronger players. On August 28 2010 06:38 Bill Murray wrote: this is wrong, as we knew he wasn't a roleblocker because my investigation didn't fail also, godfathers cant be tracked iirc, and he was tracked, so it left only framer (which i ended up killing) Fixed, thanks. On August 27 2010 02:08 Ace wrote: Oh also another point: when forced to roleclaim if you are about to be lynched, even Cops and Docs shouldn't lie. In fact I'm also of the opinion you really shouldn't role claim unless you are seriously, 100% sure there is no way to convince the wagon not to kill you. If it's gotten to this point you are probably playing with ridiculous players anyway so might as well die (assuming you didn't do anything crazy). Argue till your eyes bleed and hope that once you die someone will take a serious long and hard look at the wagon and pick out the Scum. Hopefully it wasn't a lot of one track overzealous townies or else Scum will win. But we haven't hit this level of play consistently in our games yet which is why I only mod with majority lynch from now on. I think the only time roleclaim really matters is when there's known rolecounts. If there can only be 1 DT in a game (or 2 and 1 is dead etc), you are getting lynched, and you claim DT, the mafia are either forced to counter or you are automatically confirmed innocent. In semi-opens like XXX, Youngminii just exploited the town's overemphasis on blues and managed to squeak away by claiming when that should have had no bearing on the lynch at all. Again, town just relies too much on blues and the mafia should be exploiting this a lot more by false claiming when in danger. On August 29 2010 11:31 Ace wrote: player sniping > blue sniping ^_^ Situationally dependent. Losing blues causes the town to panic much more because they place an irrationally high priority on them. Also its far far harder for medics to prot blues than it is to protect good players for obvious reasons. One top player can wreck the game far more than 1 blue can but usually these two approaches work in tandem since you don't really need to kill more than a couple people at most while feasting on the blues. On August 29 2010 14:41 Misder wrote: Thank you Ver for making these posts! I didn't really realize I was making mafia like posts though; I actually thought I was posting the way I normally do... probably its subconsious. Yeah subconscious tendencies are a huge part of it. Like for example, my posts as mafia are meticulously prepared and proofread and thus I don't make any blatant errors in them, which you would ordinarily think is good right? But the very fact that they are well prepared and "constructed" let one gain insight into my alignment, especially when using my history to compare. Being able to hide well as mafia is an important yet truly difficult skill, as the truth always leaks out in some form or another. On August 26 2010 15:15 Ace wrote: Also I heavily disagree with your stance on lying. If we are talking about fake claiming as town it's almost always a bad idea to lie about your role. Unless the setup is made in such a way that lying isn't going to result in confusion and innocent lynches then there is no point in lying. Just pure scumhunting is going to be a faster path to winning. Of course the town play is usually too bad to punish anyone for lying about their roles. But in general lying as town gets you farther from winning. How many times has someone lied about being a "blue" role, and then the actual role ends up dying anyway? Vanilla Townies trying draw night kills by lying usually ends up costing lots of time. There is also the fact that some people, like me, when scum don't always want to kill "blue" roles. Unless it's a serious situation or I really think it's obviously a great play - I'm most likely going to kill players that are on the right track, look too pro-town, or will take too much effort to get lynched. Most of the time I feel if a DT or some other role claims I'm scum by the time it's all over my team is going to be in a better position anyway. I agree lying is walking on the tightrope. If it is misused it's disastrous, but at the same time if used skillfully, it does give you many more options normally unavailable. In that game I linked Bill Murray had a huge bandwagon on him for anti-town play (but not necessarily mafia play), and I wasn't certain of his alignment. So I made a provocative little pm which required me lying about my role to achieve the necessary effect/coverage, got my answer to his alignment + role, defended him and prevented an innocent lynch, and everyone lived happily ever after while suspecting me a bit, which is certainly better than lynching BM as it might have went. I remember in particular a game on G9 where you were DT, MBH as GF, as the other mafia was claiming DT as well as you (only 1 DT max in the game). You checked the fake claimer, got mafia, then said in the thread that MBH was mafia via rolecheck. It was a huge lie but the correct move. One DT saying he checked the other DT and got mafia is kind of a 'duh' move which proves nothing. But by linking the association of MBH + fake DT and saying MBH is mafia from a check, that claim actually means something and you won the game singlehandedly. But the emphasis of that paragraph on lying was how you can't use Lynch all liars as an ironclad rule because townies will lie and they will screw up (like Pandain did). The action of lying in itself, which perhaps not ideal, will not always be done by mafia. As a broader rule, bad townie play=/mafia. On August 29 2010 06:44 Hesmyrr wrote: AWESOME! 100% victory rate. I think I understand. Kind of curious about who you would choose to refer as "top level" players though. It would probably help me to know whose words I should pay more specific attention to. Read past games and come to your own conclusions! I'm going to be away for awhile, so unfortunately the town guide will have to wait. This should serve well enough in the meantime though. Make sure to keep it visible! | ||
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Ver
United States2186 Posts
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Ver
United States2186 Posts
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