1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol
2) The game starts after August 31.
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol 2) The game starts after August 31. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On August 10 2010 08:04 flamewheel wrote: Show nested quote + On August 10 2010 07:26 Incognito wrote: /in on two conditions: 1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol 2) The game starts after August 31. What about me? No you're terrible at this game | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On August 10 2010 10:40 Qatol wrote: Show nested quote + On August 10 2010 07:26 Incognito wrote: /in on two conditions: 1) I can be on a team with Ver/Qatol 2) The game starts after August 31. August 31 is a bit late for me. If it starts sooner, I might consider playing. Nuuuuuu I'm gone from August 15-31 why Qatol whyyyyyyyy... | ||
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United States2071 Posts
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I'll be on team 8 if that's ok with infundi. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
We're not lynching based on inactivity this game folks. Its Team Melee Mafia, so inactivity lynch makes little sense. 8 "players" should make this game short and quick. There's no time to waste. I won't talk about activity right now given the game just started, but I will assume people are going to be active. Glancing at the player roster we have a game where every team should have someone who can be expected to carry some weight. I didn't read the last TMMM game entirely, but I noticed the last game had a fairly large discussion on two player vs. three player teams in the context of inactivity and the pros/cons of having a two/three player team. This discussion is pointless, wastes our precious time, and derails the town from its focus of finding and eliminating the mafia. Mafia like such a discussion because they can be active while keeping the town distracted from finding the mafia. Learning to recognize and avoid pointless arguments will get us a long way. With that said, time for some useful discussion. Unlike the TL Mafia game's I've played, this game doesn't have a Godfather. Therefore, DTs are that much more viable, especially in terms of checking QUIET scummy teams. Medics should be protecting VOCAL pro-town teams. This way, mafia is incentivized to take pot shots at the middle of the pool, as shooting the scummy players is obviously bad and helps narrow down the pool, and shooting active players risks running into medic protection. Mafia is also incentivized to be active because a) they can draw medic protection, b) they must avoid being targetted by DT checks. Mafia can't hide at the bottom because there is no GF or miller card to save them. There are also way to few players to be able to effectively hide from DT checks. The beauty is that even if DTs/medics don't exist, mafia must still play as if they do exist. So this strategy does not rely on the existence of blue roles. My general theory is that we need a) to let the DT check whoever he thinks is most scummy, and b) vote/make a list of the 2 top active/helpful players for the medic to protect. The reason why the DT should decide on his own who to check is merely so that mafia doesn't manipulate the target. The reason why we vote for the teams to be put on the medic list is because it is that much harder to vote for someone useless while claiming they're useful. Its a lot easier to manipulate the DT check by voting since its easier to point out flaws than real genuine activity. Of course even townies will make mistakes. So we just bypass the DT check voting. Spam. I've had to stop reading all of the last 5 or so games after getting a day or so into it because the thread just kept expanding at a phenomenal rate. Let's try to keep the thread clean and organized. I want to make sure important information is not shoved into a corner and ignored. In order to help the town organize, I suggest that at the end of every post, everyone should write a short sentence stating the point of the post. Its easy to wander aimlessly while writing a post. Writing what the main point at the end of every post should help you stay focused, help us focus on what you're trying to convey, and restrict the mafia's ability to derail the thread. I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint. *** Main points: 1) Focus on behavior analysis! 2) Stay out of useless conversations. Be pro-town and kill them rather than fan them into flame. 3) Force mafia to play proactively by threat of efficient use of blue roles. 4) Vote on medic list to protect active townies. 5) Make it a point to work toward a specific goal when posting. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 20 2010 01:03 LSB wrote: The main problem with Incognito's plan is that the existence of a DT and a Medic is not guaranteed. I really like the DT/Medic Idea, I'm just wondering, do you have any other games where you tried out this plan? Also, in reality, if we mess up, we might only have one night. Two days of mislynch would make us lose. If the medic is able to protect one person, that buys us another day. Shouldn't the list be hidden so the medic has a better chance of protecting someone? You probably didn't read the whole way through my post. Anyway, basically mafia must always act as if there are DTs/Medics unless they want to screw themselves over. In this case, the threat holds weight even if the execution is impossible to carry out because the mafia can't know whether or not the threat is real. Town, on the other hand, shouldn't really care about if its possible or not. That's something the mafia has to worry about. I don't have any other games where this has been tried. But why is that relevant? In reference to your last question, I'll quote Foolishness here: On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote: 3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect. First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it. As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere. How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it... On September 20 2010 01:54 BrownBear wrote: Minigames are intended to be short, quick, and brutal. We really have to rely on analysis in order to drop at least 1 mafia member early (preferably today), because like LSB said, we miss 2 in a row and we're done. That said, if we drop a scum, that gives us a ton more breathing room (1v6 instead of 2v6 gives us an extra day or two). Of course, the danger here is, what do we have to analyze? Besides Incog's post, that is. Which does make some assumptions that aren't necessarily true. You can't sit and wait for meaningful posts to come along so you can analyze. You have to actively work to make meaningful posts come out. Also, remember that what someone doesn't sometimes says more than what they do say. In other words, this post is says nothing. Now, what does that tell you? On September 20 2010 03:57 BrownBear wrote: Show nested quote + On September 20 2010 02:53 YellowInk wrote: On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote: Bill Murray frequently plays in a way that is destructive to town productivity when he is town. Among all the histories of those I know playing, he gives me the greatest reason to hang given a blind choice.On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote: I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? In a larger, nonteam game I'd agree with you. This game, two problems: A) policy lynches are bad because we have so little margin for error, and B) It's not fair to Ace, who is capable of being very very helpful to town if he's town. That should balance out the BM-spam a little bit. Besides, I want to see the team dynamic ^^ A deep hard analysis (cursory glance) of Ace's current posts shows that he doesn't really care about the game. Let's not play this game waiting for something to happen. Ace's capability says nothing about whether or not we should lynch him. If you're useless, you're useless, regardless of your usual skill level. What we care about is current play, not potential play. If your play is sucks, prepare to be lynched. That is all. At least a couple people seem to have caught my logical inconsistency. I'm sitting here wondering why they haven't directly said anything meaningful about it. Lastly, On September 20 2010 02:53 YellowInk wrote: Show nested quote + Bill Murray frequently plays in a way that is destructive to town productivity when he is town. Among all the histories of those I know playing, he gives me the greatest reason to hang given a blind choice.On September 20 2010 02:02 LSB wrote: On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote: I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. Why? However, I do agree with Ace. Ace's question needs to be answered and Bill Murray needs to show that he'll help the town. Then we'll see how things go. This post needs an explanation. Agreeing with a question isn't really agreeing with anything, and Ace's question is trolling. The question does not seek a real response and doesn't lead anywhere. Unless, of course, you're trying to say that Ace is being helpful. *** Main points: 1. People are misinterpreting my posts/selectively reading. 2. Content generation schemes. People need to be trying to give away their alignment. I've seen some good things since yesterday, but of course we still have some shadiness. Don't sit there and wait for content to spontaneously materialize. 3. Correction of some logically bizarre statements. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 20 2010 08:51 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I don't have any suspicions at this point. I'll probably want to kill Bill Murray when he gets active but he is tied to Ace so perhaps he will be moderated. What is the point of this post? | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 20 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote: Show nested quote + On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote: On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote: 3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect. First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it. As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere. How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it... I'm still going to revert back to the point of we should be hunting mafia and not worrying about who's going to be on the medic list. If a person/team seems pro-town or more innocent than anyone else, good for them. I'm not going to waste my time thinking about who's more pro-town than who. Everyone here is well versed in mafia, we can all make decisions for ourselves about who's clearly innocent. Not to mention once the numbers start to dwindle we can't afford to make a medic list, especially when we have days of information to analyze people by. But I can understand making a list today, or you doing this to see who votes for whom, as that can be pertinent information in the late game. And still, medics should save themselves anyways. Everyone in this game knows that, so a list doesn't matter to the mafia since they know the medics are saving themselves anyways. I don't think the psychological impacts on the mafia are going to be there because of this fact. I asked Korynne in a PM. It would be helpful for her to say so in the thread and/or update the rules with this fact as well, to avoid confusion in the future. Ah. It seems that we are on the same page now. Anyway, on to real business: [Vote]Team 1 We don't have much time till the end of the day, and very few posts to go off, but Team 1 is playing totally out of character to me. First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset. In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism. In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent. Next is Pyrr. Pyrr echoes Foolishness. Doesn't tell us much. Second post is neutral/ambiguous and implies a threat against BM/Ace but otherwise says nothing. Stating that he has no suspicions is somewhat suspicious to me though. Pyrr is normally active, aggressive, and accusatory. Here, he just sits on the fence. Claiming he is trying to encourage certain behavior, when really there is little point in encouraging that at this point. Pyrr's post is meaningless and looks like fluff post. Isn't really solid evidence either way, but this behavior doesn't make me want to think Pyrr is innocent AT ALL. Given a strong case against LSB and some unconvincing behavior from Pyrr, I believe Team 1 is today's best choice for lynch. Unless you (Foolishness) or someone else comes up with a better target. Given your attention to behavior analysis, if I could have found something, I'm sure you could have too. Looking forward to see what you think of Team 1, or any other teams. Main Points: 1) LSB is suspicious, acting out of character, and is being wishy washy. 2) Pyrr has done nothing spectacularly pro-town. 3) Team 1 is the most scummy team right now. 4) Vote for Team 1 for lynch | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 20 2010 09:35 Pandain wrote: P.S. in addition, I'd like Korynne to confirm medics can protect themselves. Also the no-lynch thing: A no-lynch should be allowed. Depriving the town of that option is pro-mafia and is nonsensical especially in a small game. In 30 player games, a single lynch doesn't hurt all too much, but being forced to lynch in an 8 person game is brutal. Especially since you have to lynch when there are an odd number of players left. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 20 2010 16:44 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Show nested quote + On September 20 2010 16:00 Incognito wrote: On September 20 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote: On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote: On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote: 3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect. First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it. As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere. How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it... I'm still going to revert back to the point of we should be hunting mafia and not worrying about who's going to be on the medic list. If a person/team seems pro-town or more innocent than anyone else, good for them. I'm not going to waste my time thinking about who's more pro-town than who. Everyone here is well versed in mafia, we can all make decisions for ourselves about who's clearly innocent. Not to mention once the numbers start to dwindle we can't afford to make a medic list, especially when we have days of information to analyze people by. But I can understand making a list today, or you doing this to see who votes for whom, as that can be pertinent information in the late game. And still, medics should save themselves anyways. Everyone in this game knows that, so a list doesn't matter to the mafia since they know the medics are saving themselves anyways. I don't think the psychological impacts on the mafia are going to be there because of this fact. I asked Korynne in a PM. It would be helpful for her to say so in the thread and/or update the rules with this fact as well, to avoid confusion in the future. Ah. It seems that we are on the same page now. Anyway, on to real business: [Vote]Team 1 We don't have much time till the end of the day, and very few posts to go off, but Team 1 is playing totally out of character to me. First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset. In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism. In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent. Next is Pyrr. Pyrr echoes Foolishness. Doesn't tell us much. Second post is neutral/ambiguous and implies a threat against BM/Ace but otherwise says nothing. Stating that he has no suspicions is somewhat suspicious to me though. Pyrr is normally active, aggressive, and accusatory. Here, he just sits on the fence. Claiming he is trying to encourage certain behavior, when really there is little point in encouraging that at this point. Pyrr's post is meaningless and looks like fluff post. Isn't really solid evidence either way, but this behavior doesn't make me want to think Pyrr is innocent AT ALL. Given a strong case against LSB and some unconvincing behavior from Pyrr, I believe Team 1 is today's best choice for lynch. Unless you (Foolishness) or someone else comes up with a better target. Given your attention to behavior analysis, if I could have found something, I'm sure you could have too. Looking forward to see what you think of Team 1, or any other teams. Main Points: 1) LSB is suspicious, acting out of character, and is being wishy washy. 2) Pyrr has done nothing spectacularly pro-town. 3) Team 1 is the most scummy team right now. 4) Vote for Team 1 for lynch LSB's plan was based on coordinating blues - we might not have a single blue this game. We can't really confirm anything because for the few roles we have... we don't even know how they work. LSB had a plan in one game - a plan that was started by Bill Murray and then edited by Pandain and then picked up by LSB. So LSB is suspicious because he hasn't posted a plan yet? I suppose the Medic plan would be an okay idea if it got us talking, but another problem I have is that I don't know who I would vote for other than LSB and I. If the medic can prot themselves, that would be their best option. The deterrence factor could be a good reason for it so we might as well do it. My post wasn't meaningless - you asked me why I made it and I told you. Not only has BM been quieter than usual, so has Ace, who is certainly more known for plans than LSB. He usually doesn't show up and ask for an explanation unless he is subbing in and he usually tries to browbeat the town into doing something when town (same with BM who doesn't mind making crazy plans and FoSing anyone who criticizes them). Also, I don't know BC to usually use this "RVS" tactic - it is usually a Bill Murray move. Any bandwagoning in a game this small is dangerous so if their vote sits tight under bad circumstances I will be onto them. Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The erroneous logic is in the "oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. Since when have I proposed fixes for broken plans? There are no fixes, we junk the plan and move on. If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia. To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work. At this point, LSB is certainly scum in my book. I'll be voting for him and I suggest everyone else does too. We need this lynch for the information. At this many people are voting no-lynch, which is just terrible for information gathering purposes. By the way, Team 7 is also mafia. We will lynch them tomorrow after we lynch Team 1 today. Main Points: 1) LSB's defense is ineffective because superficially addresses his "normal" behavior. 2) LSB's current "abnormal" behavior is just icing on the cake. The real point is the mindset behind this behavior switch. 3) Lynch Team 1 today | ||
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Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. | ||
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United States2071 Posts
On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote: Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information. What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip? LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though. We get tons of information besides his flip. I'm saying we need this lynch to force people to act. At this point, the mounds of no-lynch running around isn't forcing the mafia to do anything it doesn't want to do. And you know that. | ||
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On September 21 2010 17:48 Korynne wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 17:38 Incognito wrote: Why did I ever suggest that Korynne allow a no-lynch...I'm so sad now. You're stupid. xP Side note, it makes sense for 1 no-lynch I think, balanced out the parity for town's worst case scenario. It makes more sense for infinite no lynches I think. No real logical reason why town shouldn't be able to control its own KP weapon? | ||
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On September 21 2010 17:51 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Incog, I agree with a LOT of what you said, but we only get alignment right now, I don't really see a reason to push off our NL, your evidence looks good and one more day of it surely wouldn't hurt. Its not like this would affect KP atm anyway. Although looking more closely at pyrrhuloxia as well should give us a good idea. The good thing about this set up is having to analyze two people to determine someones alignment gives a more definitive answer, since its harder to just chalk two people acting dumb up to coincidence. What other information do you think will come about if we had an extra 72 hours? Team 1 is already under pressure. Any "helpful" analysis on their part must be taken with a grain of salt. Without the pressure of being offed today, mafia have extra time to come up with a strategy. If we give them 72 extra hours to respond, they just pretend to be inactive and stretch out their defense over 72 hours, giving them more room to proofread for blatant mistakes. On the other hand, if we give them only 18 hours to respond, they will have to respond in a shorter amount of time. This builds up the pressure. Its hard for me to see how we gain anything by waiting. The only reason why I could think of waiting is that you aren't convinced by my post and need time to think. Which is valid. But I also think my case is very strong at this point. Pressuring Team 1 to respond right away will give them a sense of urgency which is likely to yield more slipups than giving them more time. | ||
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On September 21 2010 18:25 Bill Murray wrote: Are we allowed to edit our posts or not? This is getting out of hand. You there. Quit worrying about trivial rules and focus on the issue at hand. Which is, killing them mafia. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1. On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote: Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too... unvote Team 6 vote: No lynch If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted. Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason. On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote: Show nested quote + On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote: I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint. Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote: At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open. Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait. So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far. I'm very excited to see you be the fourth. Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say. *** I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote: This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. Are you trying to defend him? On September 22 2010 06:04 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: RoL has been a little more active than he usually is. He's usually hella inactive green or red. But BC is surely too quiet for my liking. Where are you James? I thought they were maybe acting similar and blue but actually RoL is way more active than normal and BC is more inactive than normal which I don't know what to think about. RVS by BC makes me suspicious, especially when he puts it on a good player and criticizes lynching inactives while doing it. Of course that teams votes have been changed to meeple / yellowink, I believe, who Incog is now criticizing. Not sure what to think on m/yi yet, other than Incog's post did not convince me. Yeah, we know they're acting weird. You don't need to bring it up yet again. Especially since you're acting weirder than they are. You clearly are reading the thread. On the other hand, it seems to me like BC is in I don't care mode. The last two sentences just don't make sense. Nobody's switched to Team 7, and I didn't present anything against Team 7 yet. So I don't know what you're talking about. All this 4 v 2 and 3 v 1 talk is useless. The point of no lynch with regard to numbers is: A lynch when there are an even number of live players allows the mafia to make the last (game winning) hit. A lynch when player count is odd lets town have the last say. It doesn't matter how we get to even/odd number of players whether it be medic prot or no lynch. And what counts is not WHEN the no lynch/medic prot happens, its how many of those happen. 1) Delaying the game as long as possible only hurts the mafia. The longer the town has to talk the higher chance mafia will get caught and/or reveal themselves. Mafia want the game to be over asap, they don't want to dilly dally around discussion. Mmm yeah sure. Blah blah blah having longer time to talk does nothing if you're not talking. So instead of talking no lynch, why don't you do something productive and analyze? (If it makes you feel any better, I'd totally jump on board to lynching team 7). Cool. I think they're scum too. [Vote]Team 7 4) Seeing who votes and/or doesn't vote for No Lynch might help us in the long run to figuring out who's mafia. Right now there's kinda a bandwagon on team 1. Assuming they are not mafia, the mafia teams are going to jump on board rather than no lynching. The vote list for No Lynching if/when it gets passed is just as important and carries just as much information as a vote list to kill someone. Not to mention anyone who has analyzed vote lists knows that you need at least 2 days (but probably 3) to make any conclusions or suspicions. Right now one team is on the Team 1 lynch. Ya think the mafia would try to do a better job of bandwagonning than that if indeed they wanted to off Team 1, huh? | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Sorry, but "my plan" isn't easily exploitable as mafia. Yeah, the people not on the DT/Medic list will be considered "safe" from mafia POV, but I'd rather lose someone useless than someone useful. You're also missing the point. You're crying because you want me to address my "plan". Let me quote you again, There are no fixes, we junk the plan and move on. Remember saying that? Thought so. Why is it that all of a sudden you want to refocus on my plan? Not going to fall for that one, buddy. On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Lololol this is hillarious. I'm distracting others by accusing you of being mafia? Lololol. Let's get this straight. Mafia is about finding and killing scum. I'm doing nothing wrong by trying to get you lynched. You, on the other hand, want to switch my focus from lynching scum to addressing "my" flawed "plan". You seem to be missing the point that the "plan" was just to get conversations going. Originally you wanted to "junk" the plan and move on, but now you want to go back to talking about the plan because you're now on the hot seat? On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: Show nested quote + If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia. I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. You supported that after I voted for you and accused you. So your "support" of the no lynch isn't all too pro town when examined in context. On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. I am not twisting your words. I never admitted that I'm twisting your words. The fact is, you don't find mafia by reading everything at face value. Mafia want to run around wearing a mask that says "I'm a townie!" on it. You're never going to get anywhere by saying, "if it looks like a townie, it is a townie!" That's a recipe for disaster. On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> You are setting up a straw man here. Your "positions" are not meaningful. I am not accusing you for your lack of planning per se, but your lack of pro-town mindset. Your posts show apathy. Your posts say "hi I'm contributing" even though its clear you're not. You don't want to say anything about the Ace/BM lynch because you think they're town? Why didn't you say that? All you said was "Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight". Sorry, but I don't read "I think they're town" into that statement. You don't want to say anything about Foolishness/Rasta? Why? Instead of saying "these lynches are stupid", a townsperson would be trying to create discussion. In your case, you are just trying to kill it. Wrong again. I don't expect you to do either of those necessarily. I expect you to be pro-town and generate content, stimulate discussion, take a stand, and try to get the ball rolling. Trying to make plans fits into those categories. Sitting around doing nothing does not. Its not that "oh noes LSB isn't plan making thus he is mafia!", its that "LSB normally shows interest in moving the town forward and generating discussion, this game he's not, and thus he is mafia!". See the difference? Take interest in moving the town forward. You've done none of that this game unless under pressure. A lot of the day 1 accusations are baseless. We don't stop people from discussing them because we need stuff to talk about. Its fine if you try to cut off that discussion point, but only if you provide something else better. On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. No, you posted that you were certain Team 2 was mafia after I accused you. You may have honestly been waiting to see what Bum would do, but I can't prove that. Context tells me that its more plausible you just pulled that out of a hat to divert attention from yourself. I don't think any straight thinking townie is going to take your accusation at face value at this point. If you really want to look pro-town, start doing some straight up analysis. It has to be good analysis too. It has to be so good, that I'd rather lynch your target over you. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 23 2010 09:11 Foolishness wrote: Incognito and Infundibulum are an internecine ingerence. They invaginate incondite, inchoate ingannations, that inquinate inimical ideas in infaust innocents. Their iniquity causes ingerence, so inly instruments to interpose their ingravescent inveighs only makes their interference inexpugnable. For infinity, they indite inopinate, inconscient inconsistencies, that incommode us insouciance innocents. Indeed, indiscriminatory interlude is inescapable. Indispensable intelligence is imperative, that these indign imbeciles be inculpated for their incontestably invictive interchanges. Their impregnable indecency is not imprevious to the induction of the innumerable innocents that inhabit this enterprise. Indubitably, Incognito and Infundibulum intention to insidiate us incontrovertibly interlocks them as mafia. I'm still waiting on content from you. Real content that is. Unless your contribution is that you like to play word games and take shots at people from the shadows while not really caring about actively convincing everyone that I'm mafia. I'm not at all opposed to seeing what you have to say about me being mafia. So by all means, bring on the accusations. Once I present my case against Team 7 we can all decide which seems more plausible. Kapiche? On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote: odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town. Wow. This coming from you is hillarious. As if you're trying to downplay the fact that Ace was suspicious of you. Its not an "odd" choice for you to kill the team that agreed with the scumminess of YOUR team and Team 1. I'm 100% positive you didn't miss the part where Ace accused you. Notice how meeple says "Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town", while doing nothing to analyze them. Analyzing a dead person's post is easy. Meeple, however, doesn't want to do this because he has no interest in exposing the fact that Ace agreed with my reads. Meeple is not walking the talk. This should raise red flags for everyone. Killing Ace/BM is convenient if Team 1 and Team 7 are mafia. Mafia killing Ace/BM is equal to killing a less vocal and aggressive version of me/Infundibulum. It eliminates the only Team who agreed with me that Team 1 and 7 are scum right now. Which means I lose a supporter and need to work even harder to try to accomplish my goals. I think everyone would agree that I would be more likely to receive a medic prot than Ace. I'm guessing mafia took this into consideration and decided it was easier and safer to effectively cripple my steamrolling machine by sniping the quieter supporter. Now I have to find yet another vote to help me get them lynched. Real convenient, huh? Team 7 is mafia. Analysis coming up in a few. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote: This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. My original post states that YellowInk's behavior is "interesting". My comment also implies that this "interesting" behavior is suspicious. In this post, Pyrr is being apologetic about YellowInk's behavior and is trying to justify it. Why is this weird? First of all, Pyrr hasn't really been directly defending people other than himself. In this post, he defends YellowInk directly, theorizing why YI would behave in such a way. Pyrr hasn't been defending anyone directly (although he has been saying we should give people time to respond before accusing aggressively (which in essence is its own type of defense)), yet pops up out of the blue to defend YellowInk. The most plausible reason why Pyrr did this is because YI is his other mafia teammate. Furthermore, in my original post, I merely stated that YI's behavior was "interesting". But Pyrr feels a need to defend YI preemptively. The are other possible reasons why Pyrr did this (like, he wanted to clarify a possibility), but these possibilities are improbable. Pyrr hasn't really been the clarifying type this game. He has had a far greater role raising questions about other teams: namely, Teams 2 and 6, and all of a sudden he pops up to clarify what someone was thinking? This is an out of place defense and certainly warrants heavy suspicion. Finally, the circumstances under which Pyrr defended YellowInk are out of place. Look at the posts of Pyrr and YellowInk and their relation to one another. On page 17, YellowInk says that he agrees with what people (presumably me?) had to say about Team 1's scumminess. He follows that with a vote on Team 1. He never changes that vote. Two pages later is Pyrr's post defending YellowInk. Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is voting for him. Now just think about that for a moment. Why would you defend someone who has voted for you? It doesn't make sense to defend someone who voted for you if you were a townie. The only reason why you would do that is if BOTH PLAYERS ARE MAFIA. Pyrr's defense of YellowInk confirms my suspicion that YellowInk didn't really want to lynch Pyrr and used meeple's no-lynch to effectively neutralize his vote. Pyrr wants to support YellowInk but overlooks the fact that YellowInk voted for him. Oh well, I'm happy with two easy mafia. [Vote]Team 7 Main Point: 1) Pyrr slipped up. He defended someone out of the blue when there was no direct attack involved. He defended someone who voted for him. 2) Team 1 is mafia 3) Team 7 is mafia + Show Spoiler + *Note* This is supplementary information should you not be convinced by my unspoilered argument. This section is spoilered merely so that it does not distract people from my main point which is unspoilered above. Pyrr On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: @ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit. I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC. vote team 6 The only reason why LSB isn't passive is because he's popping up to defend himself. BrownBear has generated more real content than LSB. The most notable thing he said was: On September 21 2010 02:15 BrownBear wrote: There's a bit of an interesting dynamic starting to come out here. Show nested quote + On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: On September 20 2010 14:15 BrownBear wrote: On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote: So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game. TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick. This was a really long, elegant way of saying absolutely jack shit. That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. This could be a slip, or it could be Pyrry trying to gently suggest SR as mafia to us. This early in the game, I would be astonished if Pyrry slipped up that spectacularly, so I think he's trying to plant the SR-scum idea in our heads (inception?). On a related note, you claim here that SR is always a cryptic useless babblemouth. This is not a true statement. Look at TL Mafia XXX. SR is pretty concrete and understandable here, even if he posts a lot of one liners. He actively gives input, questions, theorizes, and states his opinion. That game he was townie. So either you're intentionally inaccurately portraying someone, like BrownBear said, or its another honest mistake. In any case, BrownBear bringing this point up is generating content. And BC does have his I don't care moments. I've seen plenty of games where BC just messed around or didn't take the game seriously. Most of them are in the middle of TL mafia history after he gets vanilla townie a bunch of times in a row. For an example, check out Mafia XV. Or the beginning of TL Mafia XXX where he was smurfing as Vayesh Moru. As for RoL, you either have a bad memory, or you don't care about having a good one. Check out TL Mafia XV. RoL is plenty active in that game. The vast number of gross misrepresentations that I have pointed out here is astonishing. Memory is a weird thing, so I can't really say much about this except that its bad play. Your play this game doesn't match anything from your past two games which have samples of both mafia and town play. I would buy the idea that you are trying to change up your style. The thing is, this game, the style you have chosen to switch to is not just bad play, its pro-mafia play. Memory is a weird thing, so I won't say you're mafia because of your horrid misinterpretations of others' posts, but that fact cannot be ignored. Its hard to believe that all the incorrect statements that I've outlined here are just coincidence. Lets take a look at Pyrr's post history this game. Bashing my plan Stating you have no suspicions Making non-committal prod statements against Ace/BM Misrepresentative statement about SR Defense of LSB Refuting the statement "SR is appealing to Pyrr's authority" More wishy-washy statements about SR Says we should be investigating people who are not Team 1,2,7 who were the most suspicious people at that point. A post that is illogical for a townie to make. A NL post A poke on Team 6 Chatter on medics/DT Pyrr is posting like LSB. An overall characteristic of Pyrr's posts is that he either posts neutral statements, defends against an accusation, or joins in on non-essential (non-scum hunting) conversation. No pro-town direction at all. Pokes out Team 6 for some shoddy reasoning. Mysteriously avoids getting suspicious of Team 7 and actually defends Team 7 directly. In this post, he starts crying and saying that he's trying to switch from the blame game (which failed him miserably last game), to a more cautious playstyle. Then he claims that he is unfairly perceived as scummy because he "points the finger" too much or "doesn't take a stance on anything". The finger pointing is only bad when based on bad logic and when it is actively pursued in a way that floods the thread so much that other people's voices are not heard. Which is what Pyrr did in TL Mafia XXX. So yes, the suspicion for these behaviors is warranted. Pyrr tries to get pity points by using two extreme examples of playstyle in an attempt to make me look like a triggerhappy. This is not the case. Pyrr is thinking in absolutes. There is more than a "finger pointing" style and a "neutral/no-stance" style. Namely, thoughtful analysis followed by a confident support of the conclusions of your analysis. (Read Ver's TL Mafia XXX review/guide to see how Pyrr's "analysis" in that game really wasn't very good). Another pro-town activity would be discussions of suspicions, but NOT to the point of spamming the thread. Its not that pointing out a lot of suspicions is bad. You have to rely on the quality of the suspicions and the quality of the discussion that follows. Pyrr's "finger pointing" is more than finger pointing. Its aggressive finger pointing with shoddy evidence. In this post, Pyrr is asking for pity and is using appeal to emotion and faulty logic to shrug off accusations on the basis that I'm trigger happy. Main Points: 1. Pyrr's complaint that I'm being unreasonable by attacking his vicious finger pointing and his "neutral" stance + uselessness is absolutist and absurd. 2. Pyrr's posts spread doubt and do not draw informative conclusions. 3. Pyrr's posts are useless, don't show direction, and fit the motive of a mafia wanting to spread doubt while staying low profile and preventing town from going in the right direction. 4. While LSB's posts are scummy, Pyrr's posts are too. There is little doubt that Team 1 is mafia. + Show Spoiler + I was going to post some motive analysis on Team 7, but got side tracked with Pyrr and his unnatural defense of YellowInk. I now feel that a complete analysis of Team 7 is unnecessary at this point, but I will post that tomorrow IF AND ONLY IF people don't buy my above argument. I'm too tired to post it now. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 24 2010 00:53 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I love how I am supposedly defending Yellowink just because I gave a more likely explanation of what he was trying to say than what you were bringing up. I did the exact thing for SouthRawrea and everyone thought we were mafia buddies for the next five pages. Now incognito is characterizing it as an attack on SouthRawrea along with half the town, while the other half is saying that I am defending some mafia buddy. All I was saying was that SouthRawrea has made similar posts while mafia and while not and that a tell was probably not to going to be found from its mere presence, as some had believed. All I'm trying to do is give my perspective on what people are trying to say when people blow it out of proportion. On September 23 2010 11:50 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I was trying to explain what I thought he was trying to say, which didn't seem as suspicious to me as it did to you, so yeah I suppose it is a defense. A case of the pandering politician. Using vague/wishy washy words to soften the impact of your words. You're so terrible at defending yourself that I'm not sure what to think at this point. Stop contradicting yourself. Plain and simple, you were defending YellowInk. At this point its not my job to convince the victim that he is scummy. Its my job to clarify to the town why my victim is scummy. So in the interest of clarity, town should ignore statements like these: But when your whole fucking case is "Pyrr is mafia for sure, he is defending Yellowink, and therefore Yellowink is mafia" it is not very persuasive to me, given that I am not mafia, I wasn't defending Yellowink so much as giving my interpretation on what Yellowink was saying, and I've "defended" several other players the same way. If yellowink is mafia because I defended him, then I suppose Team 2 is mafia because meeple accused Bill Murray of fluff posting for his vote on Team 2. These statements are faulty logic and simply aren't true. Any sensible townie can read my case to see exactly why this connection is very suspicious. Don't be misled by Pyrr's misinterpretations of what my argument truly is. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote: Alright, the analysis... yeah its delayed and I roasted for not posting it earlier... BM: + Show Spoiler + On September 20 2010 19:39 Bill Murray wrote: Show nested quote + On September 20 2010 15:30 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving. @pyrr excuse me? are you admitting he is your scumbuddy? @everyone else If pyrrhuloxia is mafia, southrawrea could be as well. It might be null, but I feel like that could be a slip. I am liking pro-town discussion of Incognito and Foolishness, and are not really suspicious of teams 8 and 3 as a result. Incognito is capable of spotlighting as scum, so I'm not saying he is cleared, but I have played with him where he is scum, and this does not feel quite the same. Due to meta, and his amazingly pro-town play, I would definitely not be ok with his lynch at this juncture. I am not fully convinced Pyrrhuloxia's team is a mafia slot, though, and am going to reserve my vote for the moment as such a small setup can be volatile. I would be happier with a lynch on team 2, as I found SouthRawrEas post to be all fluff and no content. @mod votecount please ##vote: team 2 Expresses doubt about South's greenness due to fluff posting... says that he enjoys Incog and Foolishness's analysis, but adds a caveat about Incog's ability to spotlight as red. + Show Spoiler + On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote: LSB's admission is only icing on the cake @LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy? Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote: So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr This makes me confident in my earlier read he is appealing to pyrr's authority. Scummy, scummy, scummy. @meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia. I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1. day 1 lynching scum: 6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today. this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. ##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB ##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek States that SR is a new player and a scum giveaway and they implicate team 1. + Show Spoiler + On September 21 2010 17:06 Bill Murray wrote: + Show Spoiler + On September 21 2010 08:56 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 07:33 BrownBear wrote: On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote: I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1. day 1 lynching scum: 6 v 1 night kill day 2 5v1 <- possible win here mislynch + night kill day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty night kill day 4 2v1 (LYLO) if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially. That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today. this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot. Let's get South to post more before we make decisions. Also, we need his team to start posting as well, all of them haven't really been very helpful. As it stands, this is probably our best bet, but we have the time, might as well get the information before deciding for sure. Alright, I am going to be addressing both BM and BB with this, since this seems to be using faulty logic. BM you are arguing that we achieve the same result by no lynching day one or two, this is wrong because on Day 2 we have more information to work with PLUS we have higher percent of just randomly offing a mafia simply because there is one less team in the game. Completely faulty logic. As the game progresses our information increases so saying day 1 = day 2 no lynching is completely wrong, even if it is mathematically the same in regards to WHEN the day ends. Also BM you assume that we are rocking out day 1 and fucking up rest of the time? That's such an unlikely scenario considering as the game progresses information increases. BB inactivity is an easy mafia ploy to pull off day one claiming little to no reason or content to post, so its a given that they SHOULD be posting and if it continues it is very scummy and antitown, in the current set up I am willing to let it slide and not lynch of inactivity Day 1, but come down on it hard Day 2. Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 06:20 Ace wrote: Also I'm highly supportive of no lynching ONLY if those other conditions are met, because honestly having 1 shot of a No Lynch in a game this small is a very scary thing And to make things clear for why some people generally want to lynch all the time: Chance of hitting Mafia with a lynch: some %, in this case 25% Chance of hitting Mafia with a No Lynch: 0% This is the justification that some people use in arguing for Lynching every day. Of course I don't usually support this because I'd rather lynch someone I'm highly sure is Scum than rest on a 25% chance of hitting red. Also this 25% doesn't show you that if you miss, the 75% chance of hitting a helpful player can deal more damage than the loss of one team. Losing a leading pro-town player and/or power role can have near-game ending effects. So if we are seriously going to lynch someone today, we better get some good discussion going. Which is why we I think Team 2's (LSB) accusation that Team 1 is certainly scummy needs a stronger argument. I would disagree with the we-should-lynch mentality, simply because no-lynching day 1 actually gives us an extra day. Obviously if we're 100% sure we have a scum we should lynch, but failing that we should no lynch, because then we have an extra day of analysis and a nightkill target. Get the cop (if he exists) to rolecheck team 1 or 2 tonight, and if he finds a scum, have him claim and get the medic (if HE also exists) to protect him. This obviously assumes blue roles exist, but since we have a 3/4 chance that they do, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's at least 1 blue in the game (if we get lucky, we get two!) I do agree with the fact that we need to get good discussion going, and that we need to get LSB to 'splain himself further about his accusation. This entirely reeks of shit to be blunt. It starts with kind of what I was saying but dissolves into the most retarded plan I have ever read. The whole DT CAN CHECK SOMEONE THEN SAY WHAT HE CHECKED AND THEN MEDIC PROTECTS HIM = GG is retarded. You are basing SO MUCH off of the chance its a 1/4 scenario where we lucked out and got both a medic and a DT. When deciding what to do we have to see what would benefit us the MOST in every possible scenario, which I believe is clearly day 1 no lynching (in our current predicament) Obviously if we have a strong suspect we should ALWAYS go for it, but quite simply the reasoning that you are justifying no lynch is nonsensical. Now, to get some discussion going: What do you guys think of the possibility of having cop (if cop exists) claim day 2? Obviously he shouldnt claim now, because if he exists there's only a 1/3 chance that medic also exists and can protect his ass tonight. However, I'm assuming that since cop is more than 1 person, and this game is mostly talented players, the rolecheck tonight should turn up something good. I think it would absolutely be worth it to trade cop for 1 of the mafia. Obvious flaw with this: If there's no cop, and mafia fakeclaims, who's gonna counterclaim? Still, I'd love to hear other peoples' opinion. DT should only claim if he feels a good enough reason to. Personally I think as soon as the DT confirms someone as red he should claim. Trading mafia for DT in a small game like this seems beneficial. The only reason NOT to do that is if that individual is getting lynched anyway for whatever reason, but if the vote is close I would still claim as a DT and make sure a mafia got killed. Besides that claiming for the sake of claiming is stupid. I disagree. If team 2 are mafia, and I get team 2 lynched, it is 100% likely on both days they will flip mafia. I don't look at it "randomly", I look at who is fucking mafia and who isn't fucking mafia. That being said, over the past couple of pages, I have been really happy with SR and Divinek. I was happy with bumatlarge until he started using really odd language. bumatlarge, explain the ending of your most recent post, as seen here: Show nested quote + Main Points: 1. Laxin medic goes hippy when they make war not love 2. Incog is fear nothing happenstance benefit 3. My vote wit no apologies because apologies get me in trouble apparently ...What? Basically, I am fine with no lynch at this point. I was pretty sure I had caught scum, but I am admittedly not so sure now. vote: no lynch Expresses doubts about his previous convictions and changes his vote to no lynch + Show Spoiler + On September 21 2010 19:28 Bill Murray wrote: Foolishness trendily lurks until D2 too bad if he doesnt die N1 he is likely mafia, as he likes to lurk D1 as mafia just like he does as townie or blue so that is very, very, very null from him. I cannot emphasize this more. The funny thing is, though, mafia could choose to not hit him and use it as an argument. "Foolishness didn't die, he is mafia, get him" on day 2. That's the problem with his high level of play if it goes unchecked, it makes all arguments pretty WIFOMy which is why I like to pressure people who lurk I like to do that more on day 2, or forward, though. I like a lynch on D1 vs a No Lynch, so I am tempted to wagon. If I wagon, would you guys take it the wrong way? I like wagons as town these days, but I don't like mislynches, and I haven't seen anything glaring at me saying "this player is scummy as fuck" like I had originally thought I had. It's funny everyone is dead set on a team I initially thought was scum. The minute I back off, people start believing. The world works in mysterious ways. I am going to vote simply to consolidate my vote with my partner's, and Vote: Team 1 Tomorrow we can pressure people based around their posts, and our general suspicions on teams 7 and 2 if they flip red. If they flip townie, then I'll have to look at a couple certain teams, too, so I'm actually happier with this lynch than teams 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and possibly even 2. Votes Team 1 to with Ace, and still expresses concerns about teams 2 and now 7 Ace: + Show Spoiler + On September 21 2010 17:40 Ace wrote: Ah damn I was somewhat supporting your post until you said We need this lynch for information. What information are we getting from a lynch besides his alignment flip? LSB is still the scummiest person so far in my book though. + Show Spoiler + On September 21 2010 18:40 Ace wrote: actually I dont think your case by itself is really that strong, it just seems convenient. LSB's accusation of Team 2 and his weak explanation, which didn't even seem to answer my concern is still my prime motive for leaning towards them. I'll rethink this again later for sure but for now ## vote Team 1 States suspicions about LSB and votes for him + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 03:03 Ace wrote: this is such a terrible lynch. Just way too many easy voters. Bill Murray unvote them, this lynch just doesn't seem legit at all. ##unvote Team 1 Gets anxious about the easy votes and unvotes Team 1 + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote: At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch. The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us. No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? Accuses Yellowink (Team 7) Now lets see... Amongst the people that are included in the "easy votes" on Team 1 are: bumatlarge Divinek Infundibulum YellowInk SouthRawrea Incognito Also the people that accused BM/Ace YellowInk - albeit halfheartedly + Show Spoiler + On September 19 2010 14:22 YellowInk wrote: I think we should hang Ace and Bill Murray. LSB + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2010 17:36 Incognito wrote: Its not just his actions, its his mindset. If you read over LSB's posts, all his posts are neutral and he never takes a stand. Its not easy for anyone to pinpoint what LSB supports because he doesn't support anything. And that's the point. Mafia don't want to take an active stance because then they have to defend it. Mafia would like to sit on the fence so that nobody can hold them responsible for their actions while subtly working to subvert town goals. Town has nothing to lose by taking sides. Now looking at LSB's past games, he takes sides as town. He is decisive and actively contributes to the town while openly attempting to convince others of his view. On the other hand, this game LSB does not take sides. He is not decisive, and only points out flaws. Is he attempting to convince others to follow his point of view? No, he doesn't have one. LSB is not interested in the town's welfare. He wants to create the appearance of pro-town activity by pointing out the flaws in my plan while using neutral language and doing nothing to help town. As for the things I'm supporting 1) No lynch. 2) Bum's medic plan Show nested quote + This post attempts to derail the focus on LSB's scumminess by setting up straw men and refusing to directly refute my accusations. LSB says he didn't make a plan because the game setup is not exploitable. While this may be true, this does not address the motives behind LSB's actions. LSB is refuting the planning aspect of his play. I am attacking the motives behind his play, namely that as town he takes stances and tries to work for the town's benefit. The thing is, if I was mafia, I would be supporting an erronous plan, trying to get the town to take part of a plan that is easily exploitable. A great way to do that is to support your plan! Your plan has problems. Strangely you haven't address these problems. Right now you are saying, "LSB seems skummy, so therefore I don't need to worry about the holes in my plan". That isn't logic, that's misdirection. Show nested quote + The erroneous logic is in the "oh no what happens if a DT/medic doesn't exist" question, not the no lynch issue. Stop trying to appear all innocent and beating around the bush. I'll repeat myself: We should use the DT and the Medic in the places where they will be most effective. The Medic should focus on making sure that someone doesn't die. And the DT should be used to try to investigate targets. I don't like the list idea, since it tells the mafia what to stay out of. Again, please address this problem. Tell me why I am wrong, don't just make a long post on why I'm supposed mafia to distract others from seeing that your plan has a problem. Show nested quote + If there are no fixes, you junk the plan an move on. Valid. But you didn't move on. You junked the plan, and promptly disappeared. The most plausible reason why you did that is because you are mafia. I don't have this list of possible plans in my pocket and try to use them. If I think of something, I'll use it sure. I moved on of course, chiefly no lynch once we figured out that it could be used. Show nested quote + To say those posts were serious accusations that deserved input would be flat out lies Again, I'm not saying your statement was a lie. I'm saying that the motiviations for your post are shaky. Everyone reading this post should be looking at the subjective question of why LSB is posting the way he is. Reading LSB's posts at face value isn't going to get us anywhere. Its not a matter of lie or truth. Its a matter of what seems realistic given the mindset of the poster. What I am saying is that your accusations twist my words. You admit that you can't read my posts at face value because if you do, you'll find that I'm a townie. You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions? What positions are you accusing me of not taking on? Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not going to make a plan unless I think of one. Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. Because I think there're town Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should. So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm> Show nested quote + LSB's recent "analysis" on Team 2 cannot be considered a natural pro-town sign since he only posted it under pressure from 3 people. So don't use this as an excuse for why you're town. It won't work. I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory. Conclusions: I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them. On September 24 2010 04:05 meeple wrote: Also Vote: Team 6 This is absolutely hillarious. This is not analysis, it is mere compilation of posts followed by one liner summaries. Nothing really pro-town about this at all. Then, meeple decides to be suspicious of everyone on the Team 1 lynch and tells us that we should examine him. This looks familiar...First he says " Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town" without any followup. Then he says "I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1", again without followup. Meeple just wants to run us around in circles telling us what we should analyze. But doesn't do any analysis himself. Seems like a reoccurring theme here. To make this even more strange, he doesn't even vote for someone who "bandwagoned" Team 1. He decides to vote for Team 6. Out of the blue. Yep. Definitely doesn't care about the town, and definitely doesn't put his vote where his mouth is. And definitely doesn't walk the talk. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 24 2010 07:50 LSB wrote: I am against the Meeple lynch Show nested quote + On September 23 2010 16:24 Incognito wrote: On September 23 2010 10:59 meeple wrote: odd choice for mafia... people seem to have a grudge against them Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town. Wow. This coming from you is hillarious. As if you're trying to downplay the fact that Ace was suspicious of you. Its not an "odd" choice for you to kill the team that agreed with the scumminess of YOUR team and Team 1. I'm 100% positive you didn't miss the part where Ace accused you. Notice how meeple says "Now comes the analysis of their posts knowing that they were town", while doing nothing to analyze them. Analyzing a dead person's post is easy. Meeple, however, doesn't want to do this because he has no interest in exposing the fact that Ace agreed with my reads. Meeple is not walking the talk. This should raise red flags for everyone. I don’t believe you gave him that much time. Meeple did do analysis of Ace, after your post. He possibly could be busy and needed to do something else. When I posted about meeple's odd behavior, it was already 5 hours after meeple posted that we need to analyze Ace/BM's behavior. Look at my latest post. Meeple doesn't even give analysis when prompted. It probably didn't take more than 15 minutes to write that "analysis". And I didn't give him enough time when he had 5 hours to post it? That's just pathetic. Meeple doesn't give an "analysis" of Ace after, he gives a summary of his posts and posts a grand total of FOUR of Ace's posts. On September 24 2010 07:50 LSB wrote: So I dug through the posts where Ace mentioned Yellowink and Meeple And I found a post + Show Spoiler + On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote: At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch. The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us. No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why? I don’t see an accusation of scummyness from Ace, all I see is say ridiculing YellowInk for being a “bad player” Ace said he was unsure on whether or not Incog was right. Ace didn’t agree with Incog yet. Relevant section of Ace's post here: The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Key word also. This means Ace pegged your teams too. Ace shows his cards here. He agrees that Team 1/7 are scummy. The way he phrases it shows that he independently arrived at his conclusion too and is not just sheepishly agreeing with me. I'm not assuming anything. I'm just stating facts. The facts are: Ace pegged your teams. Ace's death makes perfect sense when you see this fact. Again its a defense. Looks like you like selectively reading your partner's quotes too. On September 23 2010 20:19 Divinek wrote: totally buy the argument. Especially for team 7, what else is there to say other than it makes overwhelming sense. There's all kind of WIFOM shit people can throw into this but that slip up is pretty LOL. Cause i know i hate people that vote for me, or even attack me ie LSB, and so on so it's quite easy reasoning to follow baa baaa ##vote team 7 Bandwagoning? [/QUOTE] As a veiled attack on Team 2 this is atrocious. Gonna accuse anyone who votes for your scumbuddy as bandwagoning? The evidence is pretty clear at this point. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 21 2010 22:44 YellowInk wrote: However, it is far more important that a lynch occurs that I would be 'ok' with than a no lynch than to potentially divide the town among targets and allow a no lynch to occur. On September 22 2010 05:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Show nested quote + On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote: This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate. I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty. And I'm the one word twisting? You have an issue with selective reading. And sorry, you are not just "giving [your] interpretation on what Yellowink was saying", you're giving a reason for something other than he stated. In your second set of quotes, it is obvious that "your whole fucking case is [etc]" is hyperbole but it is damn close to the truth nonetheless. More selective reading. You obviously haven't read my accusation if you think that I am saying "Pyrr is mafia for sure, he is defending Yellowink, and therefore Yellowink is mafia". Here's what I'm actually saying: "Pyrr is defending YellowInk even though YellowInk is suspicious of Pyrr and accused him. Therefore both are mafia." "If yellowink is mafia because I defended him...". No. YellowInk is mafia because of my above statement. I'll take this opportunity to quote you here: I'm really not liking how you are twisting peoples' words around. Seems fitting, huh? It also directly contradicts your idea that I am operating under the strategy of using "vague/wishy washy words to soften the impact of your words." I'm not really paying attention to the way I phrase things because the substance is more important but you are constantly disregarding this. Nah, it doesn't contradict. You need to look at this in context. Mafia is wishy-washy when they're trying to hide from the town and stay under the radar. Its obvious that they won't be wishy-washy when accused. Just imagining the defense "well, I could be mafia, but then again I couldn't be" is pretty laughable. Your posts are trash regardless of your alignment. You are known to twist posts even when town. Your pro-clarity and anti-word twisting stance I find very ironic. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red... When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6. Simple. You think Team 6 is the most scummy team that isn't you or your scumbuddy. You have every incentive as mafia to go after a new team (Team 6), especially since the other option (Team 1) isn't so palatable from your point of view. Team 6 is pretty inactive, and you're going to have to save yourself somehow, so no reason not to vote Team 6. There are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Team 6. The reasons just arent as good as the reasons for you or Team 1. I'll agree that a lot of Foolishness's "analysis" is sketchy and is a stretch. But there are some good points there. To all those saying Meeple never takes any stands, check out ALL of meeple's posts in TL Mafia XXVII. Not just the first 10 or so. He definitely contributes his thoughts about lynch targets/other characters. Here's a few excerpts: On June 15 2010 11:23 meeple wrote: I trust Ludwig with almost no doubts... much more than moocow... and I trust them both more than some other people. There's a slight chance of there being mafia amongst our dts... but like radfield said, its questionable whether this is a good time to start offing claimed blues. flamewheel's willingness to undergo a check makes me hesitate to push a check on him... but it doesn't put him in the clear obviously. I would try for a redtooth alignment check tonight... or Chez... On June 15 2010 11:33 meeple wrote: Ludwig has been active... but he's just active at a different time... totally offset from North American time. I never said you were suspicious... I just said that I trust Ludwig... mostly because if he was mafia there's no way he would've stepped in before. His trusting of L isn't suspicious, tons of people followed L's plan... His reactions when Chez was shooting people was genuine I felt... he was just confused, as was I, at what the hell was going on. I have no reason to distrust you, and for sure you're low on the list of suspects... On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote: I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. On June 15 2010 02:06 meeple wrote: Having said that and then going through his posts... RoL is pretty damn inactive too... I'll have to think more about which one is more deserving On June 13 2010 04:07 meeple wrote: I don't agree with lynching Chez on the grounds of inactivity though. If I have some time to go through posts I'll come up with more suspects. On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote: Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt... Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away. I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig... Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us... Meeple states his trust, states who to rolecheck, agrees/disagrees on lynching certain targets, and gives more input on the situation with the last quote. Notice how he consistently doesn't like lynching on inactivity. Notice how that contrasts with this game, where he wants to lynch BC based on uselessness/inactivity... Lastly, On June 16 2010 11:28 meeple wrote: Alright so... first things first... I'm the medic... The mafia knows it by know and so should the town. Obviously I claimed watcher because there was a shitload of greens and it was simply more believable. I had been in PM contact with Ludwig a little and later claimed medic to him since he had defended me in the thread... through him I also had PM contact with Radfield, who also knew me as the medic (through Ludwig... not my decision to tell him) Now... not too long after I claimed to be watcher and had "found" the medic, Foolishness PMs me wondering why I hadn't contacted him yet and claims watcher and tells me (to prove that he's a watcher) that tree.hugger also visited Ludwig last night. Of course, I couldn't have known that, but regardless I was just so fucking elated that we had a medic/watcher pair, since now we can coordinate. Things proceed, now with me thinking I had a solid base with a watcher by my side... until I get a PM from L, asking me if Foolishness is the medic... I respond somewhat vaguely, but give him a strong indication that Foolishness is indeed the medic... knowing that if they went after him I could always protect him. Then L flips Godfather and the shit hits the fan and I knew that L would've told the rest of the reds to go after Foolishness. So tonight we schemed... I protected Foolishness, and he watched himself to see who hit him. AND IT WAS MOTHER FUCKING + Show Spoiler + LUDWIG The same friggin dude that I had supported and backed like a moron... Anyways... we lynch him today and we're down to 1 red... meeple was involved in a blue roles scheme. I know we don't have as complex blue roles this game, but meeple was certainly contributing in the other game. On the other hand, meeple has zero useful contributions this game. And no thoughts on lynch targets either. Except for team 6. | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
Also RoL please vote! | ||
Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On September 24 2010 19:22 meeple wrote: Show nested quote + On September 24 2010 18:50 Incognito wrote: That's all really misleading... I have stated my own thoughts on a number of occasions... if we are mafia, why would we go after a team that has previously had no real suspicions put upon them by anyone else... instead of simply following the crowd and gone after someone with the heat on. There's no reason for me to make enemies, townie or red... When I get time, and if it isn't done already by my partner YellowInk, I'll get into that more comprehensive analysis of team 6. Simple. You think Team 6 is the most scummy team that isn't you or your scumbuddy. You have every incentive as mafia to go after a new team (Team 6), especially since the other option (Team 1) isn't so palatable from your point of view. Team 6 is pretty inactive, and you're going to have to save yourself somehow, so no reason not to vote Team 6. There are plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Team 6. The reasons just arent as good as the reasons for you or Team 1. I'll agree that a lot of Foolishness's "analysis" is sketchy and is a stretch. But there are some good points there. To all those saying Meeple never takes any stands, check out ALL of meeple's posts in TL Mafia XXVII. Not just the first 10 or so. He definitely contributes his thoughts about lynch targets/other characters. Here's a few excerpts: On June 15 2010 11:23 meeple wrote: I trust Ludwig with almost no doubts... much more than moocow... and I trust them both more than some other people. There's a slight chance of there being mafia amongst our dts... but like radfield said, its questionable whether this is a good time to start offing claimed blues. flamewheel's willingness to undergo a check makes me hesitate to push a check on him... but it doesn't put him in the clear obviously. I would try for a redtooth alignment check tonight... or Chez... On June 15 2010 11:33 meeple wrote: Ludwig has been active... but he's just active at a different time... totally offset from North American time. I never said you were suspicious... I just said that I trust Ludwig... mostly because if he was mafia there's no way he would've stepped in before. His trusting of L isn't suspicious, tons of people followed L's plan... His reactions when Chez was shooting people was genuine I felt... he was just confused, as was I, at what the hell was going on. I have no reason to distrust you, and for sure you're low on the list of suspects... On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote: I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. On June 15 2010 02:06 meeple wrote: Having said that and then going through his posts... RoL is pretty damn inactive too... I'll have to think more about which one is more deserving On June 13 2010 04:07 meeple wrote: I don't agree with lynching Chez on the grounds of inactivity though. If I have some time to go through posts I'll come up with more suspects. On June 17 2010 08:26 meeple wrote: Ludwig is most definitely the roleblocker... that's the only way he can hold up his claims to be a dt... Also... Radfield is the last mafia I beleive... too many close inexplicable ties with Ludwig then last minute trying to push away. I trusted Ludwig because I was being impulsive about his defense of me early on and took a risk (and a rather stupid one)... but when I didn't die I thought that it kinda proved that he wasn't red... since who wouldn't take a lovely medic dangled in front of you like that. I didn't really trust Radfield... was kinda forced into it by Ludwig... Anyways... tommorow's lynch of radfield should clinch the game for us... Meeple states his trust, states who to rolecheck, agrees/disagrees on lynching certain targets, and gives more input on the situation with the last quote. Notice how he consistently doesn't like lynching on inactivity. Notice how that contrasts with this game, where he wants to lynch BC based on uselessness/inactivity... Lastly, On June 16 2010 11:28 meeple wrote: Alright so... first things first... I'm the medic... The mafia knows it by know and so should the town. Obviously I claimed watcher because there was a shitload of greens and it was simply more believable. I had been in PM contact with Ludwig a little and later claimed medic to him since he had defended me in the thread... through him I also had PM contact with Radfield, who also knew me as the medic (through Ludwig... not my decision to tell him) Now... not too long after I claimed to be watcher and had "found" the medic, Foolishness PMs me wondering why I hadn't contacted him yet and claims watcher and tells me (to prove that he's a watcher) that tree.hugger also visited Ludwig last night. Of course, I couldn't have known that, but regardless I was just so fucking elated that we had a medic/watcher pair, since now we can coordinate. Things proceed, now with me thinking I had a solid base with a watcher by my side... until I get a PM from L, asking me if Foolishness is the medic... I respond somewhat vaguely, but give him a strong indication that Foolishness is indeed the medic... knowing that if they went after him I could always protect him. Then L flips Godfather and the shit hits the fan and I knew that L would've told the rest of the reds to go after Foolishness. So tonight we schemed... I protected Foolishness, and he watched himself to see who hit him. AND IT WAS MOTHER FUCKING + Show Spoiler + LUDWIG The same friggin dude that I had supported and backed like a moron... Anyways... we lynch him today and we're down to 1 red... meeple was involved in a blue roles scheme. I know we don't have as complex blue roles this game, but meeple was certainly contributing in the other game. On the other hand, meeple has zero useful contributions this game. And no thoughts on lynch targets either. Except for team 6. That was an awesome game... but taken out of context you can't say that I need to act the same every game. Behavioral analysis can only go so far... I was a power role then, and as such I acted differently from when I'm a townie, as in this game. I haven't taken stands because as far as I'm concerned there's no stands to take... I haven't been really confident yet... although one is starting to develop. You seem to have developed quite the following... when you cast a vote you have a couple buddies that nod along and sheep with you. Are you confident enough in your analysis to say that you should be next when we flip green? Apparently you underestimate or misunderstand behavior analysis. There are plenty of stands to take. The only problem is, you just say "we need to do this" while not doing it. The other stands you probably don't want to take. Notice your partner ditching you here and going off to vote Team 1 again. That's the second switchup from Team 6 to Team 1 in two days. Oh, poor you. Haven't been confident yet. But you're starting to develop it? Well show me, because I don't see it. Whether town or mafia, good mafia players are able to influence people to their point of view. No matter how good an analyst you are, you aren't going to get anywhere if you can't convince anyone. That last question is irrelevant. If you lynched Ace for pegging both of your teams, you'd kill an innocent. Being wrong doesn't say anything about alignment. You should be lynching scummy people, not people who get innocents killed. Of course, getting an innocent killed is definitely grounds for investigation. By all means, I'll encourage people to analyze my votes if you flip green. I just don't think they'll find anything that scummy about me though. Judging by your vote for Team 6 and your lack of hostility against me, I'm going to guess you don't think I'm that scummy. If you're green, you might as well do an analysis on me before you die. | ||
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I have stated that I will keep an eye out if Divinek starts to bandwagon. Guess what? He did. Of course, you're not at all concerned about your bandwagoning... I can't really tell about the BC thing, I'll take Pyrr's word on it. But I've heard that he is a a really good player and it is really strange why he wouldn't be doing much. Divinek's reasons for voting Team 7 are wayyyyy better than your reasons for voting Team 6. Just because you use more words than him doesn't mean your words have more substance and thought behind them. Apparently Pandain didn't read my post here. Voting Team 1 is almost the same (not exactly, but close enough) as voting Team 7. But the way its going now I'm sticking to Team 7. We'll know in a bit whether to lynch Team 1 or look elsewhere. | ||
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On September 25 2010 06:08 LSB wrote: Show nested quote + On September 24 2010 17:10 Incognito wrote: Relevant section of Ace's post here: The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. Key word also. This means Ace pegged your teams too. Ace shows his cards here. He agrees that Team 1/7 are scummy. The way he phrases it shows that he independently arrived at his conclusion too and is not just sheepishly agreeing with me. I'm not assuming anything. I'm just stating facts. The facts are: Ace pegged your teams. Ace's death makes perfect sense when you see this fact. You ignored the second half of the sentence. You ignored the connecting part of the sentence. The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. The first part of the sentence is a fact. The second part after "which shows" states Ace's concern. Ace pegged your teams. He's just worried because he doesn't think highly of me, so he's alarmed that I came to the same conclusions as him. Since he doesn't really think I'm a good player, he's wondering whether we're both wrong and I'm just misleading him/everyone and picking off easy townies. I thought people were taught how to read in school. Apparently not. I guess I'll forgive you for selectively reading if you're mafia. If not, we'll probably need a how to read guide for TL mafia. Really, its that embarrassing. | ||
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[Vote]Team 3 | ||
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Night 1 it was between Ace and our team, tonight it was between Pandain/BB and Team 2. Guessed wrong both times and someone died. Actually my fault, since there were slightly more interesting reasons to protect both Ace + Pandain/BB. Not thinking T_T | ||
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I was gonna vote Team 1 instead of Team 6, since I'd rather lynch on some substance than pure inactivity, but there's a medic counterclaim. I know that's a lie obviously. And if you compare my posting to RoL's posting, it's clear who's scum here. I have pretty much been the driving force behind this game. Without me town has little to no information. There's no incentive for me to be this aggressive in a game where mafia can sit back and let the town rot. I've posted the most this game. My analysis showed the most dedication to the game out of everyone. As mafia it would have been so easy for me to agree with everyone and say we need more information and complain about the lack of information while providing none myself. Instead, I took a stand and attempted to lead the town when nobody was willing to take that job. Yes, its true that I was wrong on the last lynch. But every townie is going to be wrong at some point. Mislynching (once) doesn't make me automafia. And one person's vote doesn't make a lynch. RoL and BC, on the other hand, have been inactive the whole game. There is nothing pro-town that has redeeming value for Team 6. RoL's "analysis" just mimics whatever was already said. BC has been almost completely inactive the entire game. RoL claims he self protected twice in a row (rofl?) which makes almost no sense. RoL's medic claim doesn't fit. Its extremely scummy. Originally, I was going to post to switch my vote to Team 1, since I'd prefer to lynch someone concretely scummy as opposed to just an inactive, but that counterclaim does it for me. To me, its a 100% red. No reason to save a fake claiming lurker medic. *** There is no "sudden" switch to Team 7. I pointed out Team 7 midway through day 1, and I also switched votes to Team 7 before the deadline on day 1. I've been suspicious of Team 7 almost from the beginning of this game. Why did I switch to Team 7? On day 1, Foolishness said he wasn't sold on Team 1, but would gladly lynch Team 7. Since I was confident that they both were mafia, I gladly switched to Team 7 if it meant something would get done. Given my link between Team 1 and Team 7, I figured Team 1 == Team 7 in terms of which one to lynch. Nothing suspicious about a lynch I supported from half a day prior. I did not apologize profusely. A post expressing discouragement is not a scum tell. If you said it is a psychological tool, I could agree, but this definitely says nothing either way. If you're the only person who is actively trying to help the town win and you've invested so much time into the game then you find out you're wrong, its a big blow. As for the medic claim, it was a sort of end game comments before the game ends sort of thing. Really, I'm sad I got it down to two prots both nights and missed on both. My recent string of posts doesn't really say anything about my alignment. I really didn't expect someone to come out and counterclaim me. I expected it to be the end and that I'd just follow the hand motions until the end of the day where we lost. Like I said before, analyze me all you want. You won't find anything scummy about me. Both of our track records speak for themselves. Your medic claim is coming straight out of the blue. Think about the medic prots from my point of view. Day 1. I'm obviously not protecting teams 1/7. Nobody wants to kill Team 2 or 6 because they're inactive. Foolishness is acting a bit weird and not contributing too much. Pandain/BB don't really make an impression. Its down to Ace/me. If I die, the thread is pretty much dead, so I figure theres much more to lose if I die. Team 6's claim of self-prot isn't really all that pro-town. All this self-protting to protect the only 100% townie is BS. There's no reason why mafia want to kill team 6. They've done nothing and come under suspicion from Team 1/7. No incentive for the mafia to kill them. Self-prot doesn't make sense here. Day 2. Two dead townies. From my point of view, this means nobody is in the clear. I still suspected Team 1, and started to get some weird vibes from Team 3. Look back at my posts to see that I was a bit surprised at Foolishness's relatively weak analysis of meeple. Given that Day 1 Foolishness would agree to lynch team 7 but not Team 1, I was beginning to worry that it was a ploy to divert attention off Team 1. Team 6 is still suspicious and isn't going to draw any mafia hits. Mafia really doesn't have to kill me, as given the nature of towns, its easy to get the head of a mislynch lynched. So its between Team 2 and 5. At this point, the clear choice for hit should be team 5. I would've protted them if I had read their posts thoroughly, but was disconcerted by their lack of posting by the time I had pointed it out previous to the end of the lynch. By this time, I was already quitting on the game, so in haste I picked team 2. I'd like Team 6 to explain their choices for medic prots. I really don't think anyone would have cared if an inactive scummy medic team who was under suspicion died. I also don't think any mafia would have cared to hit them. Maybe you're just selfish, but this reeks of scummy play. Nothing pro-town about that at all. From my point of view, I have pretty solid medic prot choices. A little off, but a lot better than what Team 6 claims to have done. *** Something is interesting here. Foolishness accuses me as mafia halfway through the game, makes another posts where he accuses me of being mafia using a bunch of words starting with "i", and says he's going to push for my lynch if meeple flips green. But he hasn't done it yet. If he were mafia, it would be relatively easy to push my lynch right now. But it isn't happening. *** Looking back, there's no reason for Foolishness to divert attention from Team 1 to Team 7. We know that one of RoL/me is mafia. If Foolishness is mafia, Team 1/7 are innocent. Foolishness as mafia has no reason to want Team 7 lynched instead of team 1, given that I had posted a lot of analysis on Team 1 and none on Team 7 (just a call out). No reason for him to go out of his way to support the lynch of a player with no analysis yet when Team 1 was a fine option. The only reason that is plausible is that Foolishness is town and genuinely thought Team 7 to be more scummy than Team 1 based on his own analysis. Foolishness is Town. Its down to Team 1/2/6. | ||
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[Vote]Team 6 | ||
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The Team 2 thing makes sense given they're also inactive in a game where mafia doesn't need to be active. However, I'm not sure Team 1's vote accusing is the be all end all because no lynch was the dominant option on day 1. Really, if Team 2 is mafia, the game is already over. Its split between Team 6/8 2 teams and 2 teams. Team 2 is the deciding vote, so if they're mafia, why haven't they wagonned me yet? | ||
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On September 27 2010 10:22 SouthRawrea wrote: Show nested quote + On September 27 2010 09:46 Incognito wrote: I'm not entirely sold on Team 2 being mafia. I've made many enemies this game, such as Team 1 and Team 7. And now Team 6. As it stands right now, Team 1/6 are voting for me in (almost) full force. The Team 2 thing makes sense given they're also inactive in a game where mafia doesn't need to be active. However, I'm not sure Team 1's vote accusing is the be all end all because no lynch was the dominant option on day 1. Really, if Team 2 is mafia, the game is already over. Its split between Team 6/8 2 teams and 2 teams. Team 2 is the deciding vote, so if they're mafia, why haven't they wagonned me yet? Not my fault my teammates are lazy >.> and really I'm just voting you temporarily for now. I've mentioned that I managed to only find a bit of information about you two "medic" teams and I'm basically going to go over your actions again before the day is over and think about changing my vote. Your buddy just wagoned me so T_T I'm not really expecting you to change your vote, so if you're mafia, you don't have to bother trying. You have nothing to lose by disappearing and not doing what you say. | ||
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Look at the votes and look at the positions people have taken. If I'm mafia, then my behavior doesn't make much sense unless Foolishness is mafia. If Foolishness was mafia, there is no reason for me to medic claim. RoL was scummy enough as it is. I wouldn't have needed to risk claiming when the three other teams are plenty scummy enough to lynch. Besides, It also doesn't make sense for Foolishness to defy my T1 analysis in favor of T7 if we're both mafia. Plainly speaking, its highly unlikely for me to be mafia at this point. Lynch team 6. | ||
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[Vote]Team 1 | ||
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Adendum: The other option is that Foolishness is mafia. Which I'm analyzing at this point, but I find extremely unlikely. | ||
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On September 29 2010 13:08 Foolishness wrote: I think this confirms Incognito and Infundibulum as medic. If we assume they are mafia, then the situations as follows: 1) We have a medic, which doesn't make sense since they would have said something by now. 2) There is no medic. But this does not make sense either since Incognito and Infundibulum claimed to have protected themselves. If they were mafia, it'd be much more plausible for them to say they protected team 3 (or any other team maybe). This is because they'd instantly be seen as confirmed, and rastaban and I would instantly be on their side, and they'd virtually have no way of losing. Also consider that it'd be believable for the mafia to hit us (team 3), especially given that people were talking about it during the night. Long way of saying what we pretty much already know, but it's more reason not to doubt their claim, and more reason for us to focus on teams 1 through 3. I still think team 2 is mafia at the moment, but I'll be looking. 2) is not possible. Mafia are not allowed to no hit. The fact that nobody died last night means that a medic exists. Since nobody else has claimed, we're the medic. Night 1: Ace/BM dies. Ace's top suspect was LSB (Team 1). Night 2: Pandain/BB dies. Pandain wrote two long posts on why LSB was mafia and why Pyrr was mafia. And another one on why meeple was town. Night 3: I am targetted. I pushed Team 1 day 1. I also stated I was for sure going to vote Team 1 after Team 6 was lynched. Common thread here? People who accuse Team 1 die. 3x is more than a coincidence to me. With that said, I have reason to believe Team 1 may not be mafia. Unvote: Team 1 Pyrr/LSB have had bad activity and haven't been pro-town at all. Granted, I attacked them very close to the beginning of the game, so the townie-defense-mode kneejerk reaction might well be the case. Their recent (in)activity might just be disgust of my attacks. The night kills totally don't look good for them. However, I'm looking at the day 2 lynch. I linked Team 7 and Team 1. Why would Team 1 be so outraged at the connection if they were mafia? They would have known Team 7 is innocent. Since I was going for Team 7 for lynch instead of Team 1, Team 1 shouldn't have any worries about the Team 7 lynch because Team 7's death would discredit my connection. Pyrr has the idea that I know Pyrr is mafia, therefore YellowInk is mafia. Let's assume he believes that that was my actual argument. As mafia, why would he care if an Innocent YellowInk is lynched? He doesn't. YellowInk flipping green is good for his case. Pyrr has no reason to discredit the link there, especially since we're going after YI before Pyrr. As Foolishness also said, Team 1 accusing Team 6 day one doesn't make too much sense unless they were feeling really desperate. Team 2 doesn't make sense. I was targetted by the mafia. Given Foolishness' adamant attacks on Team 2, it doesn't make sense for Team 2 to kill me, since I would save them and kill team 1. Killing Foolishness seems the most sensible here, as the risk of Team 2 losing by Foolishness's vote is just too great to warrant using a WIFOM argument. Looking at those two teams, we find that by process of elimination, Team 3 must be mafia. However, lets still examine them a little closer: Team 3 makes sense. Team 7 blindly calls out Team 6 on day 2. Foolishness attacks this and says he'd go for it but nobody's presented any analysis on Team 6. Then on day 3, Foolishness votes Team 6 and tells us to just read their posts to see why. Something that YellowInk said the day before but Foolishness criticized. This comes after I claim medic. Now why does Foolishness decide to vote Team 6 instead of me? Even after he said he'd go after me if meeple flipped green. First of all, if he's mafia, he can't discount my statement of disgust/ragequit. He has to assume it is a trap. Foolishness probably knows that Pyrr did the same thing as mafia. It is easy for him to sit back while town viciously kills me for this "tell". Its hard for him to jump on board because that's just not his style. He isn't known for lynching off of these bogus "tells". Since he has to assume that I'm bluffing and that I'm not ragequitting, he can't safely jump on that wagon. Therefore, he has to do it by analysis. However, its hard for Foolishness to do a full post analysis of me in the context of me being mafia. If he is forced to quote all my posts, like he did for meeple, its painfully obvious that I'm town from my first few posts and the general fact that I'm the driving force of this game. So he might as well let others deduce that I'm fishy by themselves. Notice how the entire game Foolishness has been dropping posts indicating that he thinks I'm mafia. He never backs up a single one of those attacks with evidence. Interesting, given that I've dared him multiple times to analyze my posts and find me scummy. In any case, its hard for Foolishness to get away with good analysis noting why I'm mafia. Also hard for him to get away with a BS reason on why I'm mafia, as he doesn't know if my ragequit statement was planned or not. Safer for him to let other people find me scummy and lynch me, while he votes his own team mate. Notice how he never gives Pyrr a reason why he thinks RoL is more scummy than me. He also never gives inf an answer to where inf dropped "medic tells". Because quite frankly, he prefers if I'm lynched. He doesn't want to convince anyone that I'm innocent. Besides, a lot of people are going to find me suspicious. I lynched an innocent, and made funny statements. So now he's caught. He can't really lynch Team 1 or 8. Which leaves his scumbuddy and Team 2. Gunning for Team 2 doesn't make sense given his previous statements about team 6. Politically he was suspicious of Team 6 at the end of Day 2. Which makes it hard for him to vote team 2 off the bat. After RoL's fakeclaim though, notice Foolishness suggesting a switch to Team 2. Even after the fakeclaim he still can't really vote me because he'd have to have real analysis. Foolishness can't viably push Team 1 because he's opposed it all game. Perhaps he was banking on me pushing it to lead him to victory. He also can't push Team 2 given that they aren't really on anyone's radar at this point. He can't push me if he thinks I'm going to win in the analysis battle. So he has to push Team 6, who is on people's radar, and has been playing scummily. He just has to rely on either me pushing Team 1 ruthlessly, or people wanting to kill me for whatever reason. Then, if the vote is close enough, a last minute switch would win him the game. Furthermore, Foolishness hasn't been giving much analysis this game, if at all. The main piece of analysis here is on meeple. Which I previously stated was superficially agreeable yet in reality it was sketchy analysis. He does none of the usual fishing, jabs, or other provocative moves whatsoever in the thread aimed at gaining information. His only other "analytical" piece is a process of elimination move where he picks Team 2/6 for mafia. All the hits on proponents of a Team 1 lynch could be fabricated to convince me that something is up with Team 1. After all, I'm the most vocal player here so far, so convincing me of something while opposing me in thread gains him credibility when I eventually get Team 1 lynched and they flip green. My main worry right now is that I think Foolishness plays a much more passive mafia than he has played this game. Team 1's play is absolutely attrocious apart from the day 2 defense followed by a green flip. That's the main reason for me keeping them alive at this point. Note that the stuff on Team 3 isn't pure analysis. It has a lot of weird logic in it. The main reason I see for Team 3 to be mafia is that Team 1/2 doesn't really fit. Foolishness fits a lot more in my opinion. Main points: 1) Foolishness hasn't really been doing analysis, or at least, with the exception of meeple (sketchy analysis), he hasn't been posting it. 2) Foolishness hasn't been actively gathering information. 3) Pointing to Foolishness's willingness to lynch Team 6 doesn't quite work because a) he had few other options after my post-Day 2 comments. As long as he got one townie to vote me, he would still be safe with a last minute switch, winning the game. [Vote]Team 3 | ||
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He knew Team 1 was innocent. He knew how adamantly I was pushing Team 1 on day 1. He knew that opposing it could give him town cred in the future. With my accusations of team 7, it doesn't look all too suspicious for Foolishness because I'm pretty much at the head of the lynch. Causing some chaos, veering me off my course, and later trapping me with my own convictions on Team 1 gives mafia the easy win, as that's already two mislynches right there. | ||
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On September 29 2010 16:55 Divinek wrote: shit you know the foolishness thing does make alot of sense, like ALOT of sense to me. I was majorly considering it but team 1 seemed so convincing. Probably just blind with rage for lsb attacking me i guess i can pull my vote off since i won't get mod killed and think about it for a while longer ##unvote You're a sheep. Both your team and team 1 are utter garbage. | ||
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On September 29 2010 23:23 Foolishness wrote: Yes, you're right, that is weird logic there. I still say team 2 is mafia over team 1 since it doesn't make much sense for team 1 to have been voting for their mafia buddy the other day. You haven't even commented on this "process of elimination" that I have posted about multiple times have you? I already said that it probably doesn't mean much to the rest of you but when it's plain obvious to me at the moment it's hard to say anything more. At least team 1 has put in effort to defending people. When we were lynching team 7 they backed them up properly. If they were mafia (team 1) why bother putting up their mafia buddy as the other lynch, especially since RoL and BC looked really bad due to inactivity and lack of contributing. They could have easily just pushed for team 2 since team 2 was taking heat from the first day. Team 1 has made those long posts, has tried to figure things out. Have you seen team 2 do any of that from any of their 3 players? Not so much. SouthRawrea makes a semi-long post from time to time but that's about it. Not to mention, I just went through 2 past games with each of these three. When they weren't mafia they were much more aggressive in their posting and calling people out. I haven't seen any of them perform as they did the last game when they were town. Almost all of their votes have been "yeah I agree with you, let's vote this guy", and Divinek just pulled it again after you accused me. If you ask me, the choice between hitting you and hitting rastaban and I isn't an easy decision to make. That's probably debatable though. And yes dude, I realize completely that I probably haven't been performing up to my usual town standards (although I thought my meeple analysis was sound at the time). And yes dude, I realize that rastaban hasn't really done anything in the thread this game. But I'm sitting here trying to figure things out and making sure that I'm not wrong about team 2. Team 2 hasn't done anything but blindly vote for anyone who's not team 6 (except when it was clear team 6 was getting lynched). So Team 1 wouldn't have voted for their team mate on day 1, Team 2 wouldn't kill their lifeline (me) last night, so Team 3 is mafia? Doesn't make sense to me why you would agree that Team 1 is innocent from your point of view. I'm not arguing that Team 1 is mafia at this point. I'm arguing that Team 2 is equally unlikely. Although you don't seem to buy the idea that Team 2 doesn't want to hit me. Really, just think about it. From their point of view, I've been blasting Team 1 all game. You've been blasting them the last day. Killing me gives the very likely chance that you will follow through with your words and vote them the next day. Team 1 also is going to want to save themselves and vote Team 2, so Team 2 has much to fear from killing me, as that would mean they are likely to die. If you think about it, all 3 days someone who accused Team 1 died. Someone wants Team 1 dead. Team 2 doesn't have the arguing capabilities to make that happen. And you aren't doing that either. Which means someone is expecting me to kill them. This makes more sense from your point of view than Team 2's point of view since Team 2 has an interest in keeping themselves alive versus Team 1. You, on the other hand, don't if you are mafia. Yeah, Team 2 is normally more vocal and active when town. Pyrr is also more active and accusative when town. You also are sharper and more focused when town. Honestly given the day 1/2 events, mafia had little incentive to post unless Team 1 is mafia defending themselves. I can see how Team 2's posting has been utter garbage. I can also see how your posting is suspect. Its just that to me, the night kills don't make sense from Team 2's point of view. That's why I can't vote them. On September 30 2010 06:17 rastaban wrote: Show nested quote + On September 30 2010 02:37 Divinek wrote: i was just hoping rasta was gonna pull out another analysis pegging me as mafia again so we could have an easy free mafa lynch. o well im playing different in this game just because i generally feel lazier and the players involved in this game are pretty boring lol so there's no point in flaring things up. Why go out of my way to make big long posts when people are making them for me, especially when most of what they say agrees with my line of thinking as i go through the thread? yeah it's pretty sheepish and looks bad, but i really do need to establish a lazy townie image for in future games when im mob and then i can say look i played shittily as town too! lol i keep decent tabs on people i just never care to post them, that's why pm games are so much more fun. oh bummian where for art thou damn what a contentless post, ya lets lynch them team 2 jokers LOL, you discovered my favorite past time, framing Div. Hey to be fair you weren't innocent when I did it as town I am really surprised that team i&i suspects my Foolishness and I. Foolishness has been working hardcore as town. The mafia obviously is between team 1 and 2 but it is hard to pinpoint which it is right now. Both have good arguments against them. I have to admit though, Foolishness' arguments towards team 2 seems pretty good. All the votes immediately on team 1 surprised me though as i thought most peopel agreed 2 should be next. This whole paragraph is just sketchy. Contradictions and sketchy generalizations everywhere. You're over exaggerating Foolishness' hard work. His contributions are quite superficial compared to previous games. His major contribution was stating he would be willing to kill Team 7 but not Team 1. His analysis is shoddy, and there isn't much of it. His vote on Team 6 was just too easy to be considered pro-town points for him. Mafia isn't "obviously" between Team 1 and 2. If you would like to back that up with evidence, please do so. You claim its hard to tell which of the two is mafia right now. Can you tell me WHY its hard to pinpoint which is which right now? You say both have good arguments, but seem to favor Team 2 right now. Why do you favor a Team 2 lynch? Why do you say its hard to pinpoint but seem to imply a (nonexistent) consensus against Team 2? Foolishness' arguments against Team 2 ignore my concerns about the night kill pattern. And that's the big issue in my book. The thing that's missing here is that this is sloppy play all around. A Team 3 as mafia isn't acting like a mafia that will go along with whichever mislynch occurs. Perhaps that's because they don't want to be scrutinized for easy lynching, especially since they've been "skeptical" of the arguments on Team 1 all along. Perhaps they expected me to die to make it an easy lynch on Team 2 today but don't want to look suspicious by jumping to Team 1. I don't know. It just seems that people just don't care. | ||
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On September 30 2010 12:32 LSB wrote: Seriously though. Why would Team 3 be supporting us if they were mafia? If they went after us, they easily could get a free kill and get the game almost ended. Put my position as Neutral for now Suddenly switching to supporting you after they've been opposing your lynch the whole time looks really sketchy and should make you very suspicious if you are indeed town. This would likely cause you to bring this fact to Team 2's attention, which could get Team 3 killed. The fact that I'm alive makes switching to you even a more sketchy move since he can't assume that I'm a sheeple. The fact that Foolishness's recent post shows that he doesn't really care possibly means that he knows hes doomed at this point. The Foolishness I know vigorously defends himself against shoddy (behavior) analysis, or vigorously pushes the lynch on someone scummy. It is possible that he just is unsure which of Team 1/2 is mafia given the poor play on all sides, but I find it more likely that he is mafia. | ||
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On September 30 2010 12:43 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: The chance of Incog faking medic is basically nil. No way they hold off on a hit just to do that. The medic is a huge threat to the mafia and they would love to have him dead. It's all wifom mind games since the mafia can think "incog will probably protect himself so we can freely kill someone else, but incog will know that and try to prot someone else since we know he claims to have tried that before, so we should hit incog." Doesn't implicate anyone. Team 2: I thought they were mafia for pushing all innocent lynches but they did help kill Team 6, although less than Team 3. That said, a bus at that point would have totally made sense given how many people were against Team 6. Team 3: If my intuition that one of Incog and Foolishness is mafia is correct, it would have to be Foolishness at this point rather than Incog as I had thought. I think Incog has this same gut feeling too, but the case he's pushing is all complicated wifom when Team 2 seems like the choice that follow Occam's Razor. Team 2 jumped the early bandwagon on us and now is following the confirmed innocent team onto another team. They also split up their votes the previous day. I agree Rastaban has been too inactive but Divinek admits he is doing the same thing. Both teams are making apologies I would deem suspicious except that Incog's team did the same thing the day before. Vote Team 2 Its not complicated WIFOM. Its simple WIFOM. The thing is, I don't think Team 2 is smart enough or active enough to pull it off in the event that I was dead. Arguing against Foolishness isn't easy. Especially when the case the case against Team 1 is sketchy with the Day 2 defense of YI/meeple and the out of the blue vote against Team 6 (mafia). Team 2 would have to be suicidal to want me dead, since I was stating my intention to lynch Team 1 the previous day. This is WIFOM, but I think the WIFOM isn't pure. Its weighted. The choice is, Team 2 is suicidal mafia, or Team 2 is trying to psych us out by thinking they're suicidal mafia. I don't think Team 2 is that smart to pull that trick off. Its also a risky move if nobody points this out, as I've explained above. I'm not inclined to believe that Team 2 is that suicidal. Foolishness doesn't have any redeeming values so far so I'm content lynching him. Rastaban's recent post is also super sketchy and doesn't help his case. As it is, I probably should've pressured Team 2 and said I was going to vote for them and see if they brought up this argument themselves, but alas it is too late for that. | ||
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On September 30 2010 14:17 rastaban wrote: Show nested quote + On September 30 2010 12:43 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: The chance of Incog faking medic is basically nil. No way they hold off on a hit just to do that. The medic is a huge threat to the mafia and they would love to have him dead. It's all wifom mind games since the mafia can think "incog will probably protect himself so we can freely kill someone else, but incog will know that and try to prot someone else since we know he claims to have tried that before, so we should hit incog." Doesn't implicate anyone. Team 2: I thought they were mafia for pushing all innocent lynches but they did help kill Team 6, although less than Team 3. That said, a bus at that point would have totally made sense given how many people were against Team 6. Team 3: If my intuition that one of Incog and Foolishness is mafia is correct, it would have to be Foolishness at this point rather than Incog as I had thought. I think Incog has this same gut feeling too, but the case he's pushing is all complicated wifom when Team 2 seems like the choice that follow Occam's Razor. Team 2 jumped the early bandwagon on us and now is following the confirmed innocent team onto another team. They also split up their votes the previous day. I agree Rastaban has been too inactive but Divinek admits he is doing the same thing. Both teams are making apologies I would deem suspicious except that Incog's team did the same thing the day before. Vote Team 2 I knew I would be busy so I stopped signing up for games, I signed up for this one a long time ago and kind of thought it was dead in the water, all of a sudden a lot of people show up and it was too late. I really owe Foolishness an apology as I am the one who asked him to play in the first place as my team mate but I haven't had the time to collaborate with him. That said he has done a good job on his own spearheading the last lynch on team 6 so I there is little reason to doubt him. Unless he changes his analysis I assume he still thinks Team 2 is the mafia so... [VOTE] Team 2 I've already explained why this doesn't give him the pro-townie points that you claim he has. | ||
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i.e. resign | ||
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On October 01 2010 12:45 Korynne wrote: Infundibulum also bleeds to death from a spike through the balls. On October 01 2010 14:41 Infundibulum wrote: sorry;; i havent been feeling well and fell asleep. woke up and saw this.. i really dropped the ball this time around On a spike? | ||
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[Vote]Team 1 Team 1 is 100% mafia because nobody died tonight. Mafia aren't allowed to no-hit and I protted Foolishness, so Team 1 is mafia. GG yo. I'll just quote my epicfail here for posterity: Pyrr/LSB have had bad activity and haven't been pro-town at all. Granted, I attacked them very close to the beginning of the game, so the townie-defense-mode kneejerk reaction might well be the case. Their recent (in)activity might just be disgust of my attacks. The night kills totally don't look good for them. However, I'm looking at the day 2 lynch. I linked Team 7 and Team 1. Why would Team 1 be so outraged at the connection if they were mafia? They would have known Team 7 is innocent. Since I was going for Team 7 for lynch instead of Team 1, Team 1 shouldn't have any worries about the Team 7 lynch because Team 7's death would discredit my connection. Pyrr has the idea that I know Pyrr is mafia, therefore YellowInk is mafia. Let's assume he believes that that was my actual argument. As mafia, why would he care if an Innocent YellowInk is lynched? He doesn't. YellowInk flipping green is good for his case. Pyrr has no reason to discredit the link there, especially since we're going after YI before Pyrr. As Foolishness also said, Team 1 accusing Team 6 day one doesn't make too much sense unless they were feeling really desperate. That bold part is a lie. From all the day 2 events, I must have mixed up people's posts and thought that Team 1 wrote this post. Should've been reading more carefully. If Foolishness should've pointed that out yesterday I would've so voted Team 1. Anyway, GG. | ||
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On October 02 2010 10:15 LSB wrote: Question: Can Mafia Withhold their night kill? No you can't, mafia. | ||
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On October 03 2010 00:52 Foolishness wrote: Vote team 1 hehe Whew. Thought there might have been an undisclosed traitor in this game. | ||
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On October 03 2010 07:31 LSB wrote: Uh, just wonder, can you give me some examples? (Besides Incog, and Infun of course). I don't know why Korynne hasn't verified it yet. I guess if Korynne verifies it nows, it kind of kills any chances Incog has of winning. So maybe that's why she's keeping quiet But what if your mafia? That means that you must have withheld your hit for two days straight, or Incog blocked your hits. You wouldn't have withheld the hits. You have no incentive to. On the other than, Incog needs to withhold the hits as 1) He wants to seem like the medic, and 2) now if he doesn't withhold the hit, he looses. If Incog blocked your hits, that means that he wouldn't support you, because he "protected" you last night. If the mod is modding in a way to give someone an advantage that's just wrong. Quit the act. Its been stated multiple times mafia can't no hit and they can't hit themselves. Give it up already please. | ||
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Oh completely forgot about that, lol. On October 05 2010 12:17 Korynne wrote: Show nested quote + On October 04 2010 23:17 rastaban wrote: Isn't this the very definition of WIFOM. I mean if that is the case then Infun was silly for protecting us since they should have hit him. The whole point was that both sides were trying to guess what would happen. I think it is also unfair to say there was a 50% chance infun would have given them the win if he had self protected since he did protect us meaning he viewed us as more innocent than the other team. As for LSB messing up, maybe he did but they lost due to 2 hits being blocked and not do to town voting them out when we could have so I don't know that I would call there actions a mistake. Maybe they were but the incorrect lynches were more of a mistake than anything LSB's team did. Dude, if Incog self-protected it would be 50/50, that's better that fucking yourself over. Period. This isn't WIFOM about hitting yourself or the other team, this is like, you should both target the medic. That's all under the assumption that mafia's goal is to not immediately lose. If mafia is certain my best move is to protect myself but they're unsure of whether or not they'd get lynched the next day, they could have sufficient reason to just hit the other target for the instant win. Your probabilistic methods assume I'm going to flip a coin the next day to pick a lynch target. All the endgame drama aside, I'm really disappointed by everyone's play including myself. The middle game was just a bunch of waffling and bad logic by me. Although nobody was really doing anything (except maybe Pandain/BB). Not sure if the inactivity was because of my aggressiveness or just general apathy. In any case, I'm not going to be playing again anytime soon. The team melee format is nice though so I'd like to see that continue, maybe on a larger scale next time Seems like TL mafia is running low on steam though... | ||
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