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Pick Your Power Mafia 2!
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
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As far as Bullet Bill goes, which players are carrying guns? All mafia, both Vigilantes, the SK and the Jack? Edit: I assume that this is following a strict day/night cycle just like PYP1. IE, Day always ends at 9PM EST | ||
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Radfield
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On August 06 2010 05:27 Ace wrote: I kept thinking about Impatient Mason and realized it could probably be the most abusive role in the game in the right hands so I took it out ^_^. Yeah, I was planning on taking the Impatient Mason role if I was Town this game. I had a decent plan of action and it would've been super fun for me  I feel like no one is ever going to take Alignment Cop. With a 50% chance of getting a useless role(naive and paranoid), and 3 or 4 other good investigative roles out there, it's just too much to risk your pick on. Also, just a little reminder to everyone. After the draft you will need to PM the role you want to Ace, he's not going to PM you to ask. Last game like 5 of the 20 people didn't choose a role, which made things way harder for town then they needed to be. | ||
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On August 19 2010 06:04 Ace wrote: Hmm I dont know about that role. I'm trying to see how that helps the Town or Scum at all in this setup Definitely good for the Serial Killer but as we saw last time Floridian is pretty damn good for vote hiding already. Too bad I never actually got to use the Floridian effectively. Damn you Darth! Will the Prince of Darkness have to publically declare the second night, or will it be done secretly? Also, any chance I can request that the days end at either 8 or 9 EST? I'm an hour ahead and any later is tough on me with my early mornings. Given the powers that can take effect after a lynch, it might be important that I can be around. If this doesn't work for you though that's fine. Figured it's worth checking though. | ||
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Radfield
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I've divided the roles into several categories, first is essential town roles. These are roles that we absolutely have to have. This is a 20 person game, and the mafia have a KP of one. SK also has a KP of 1. CompVig has a KP of 1, Town has lynch power of 1. This means 4 deaths per night, so we get 4 days before we're in trouble. Given this fact, we need as much investigative power as possible. This is how we will win the game. Essential Roles(Investigative) Role Cop - GF Watcher - GF, Mafia, SK Tracker - GF, Mafia, SK Joat - Mafia Bullet Bill - GF, Mafia, SK You may have noticed that Alignment Cop is not on this essential list. This is for two reasons. The sanity of the Alignment Cop is unknown, and the Alignment Cop cannot find either the Godfather, or the Serial Killer. Of those five roles, Watcher, Tracker and Bullet Bill are the most important, due to the fact they can find the Godfather and the Serial Killer. I cannot stress enough that these are the most important pro-town roles in the game. Yes there are a lot of roles that seem cooler or more fun, but these five roles are what will win us the game. Second is the Mafia roles: These are roles that are fantastic in mafia hands, mediocre or downright useless in Town hands: KP roles Comp Vig Bad Santa Vengeful Player Day Vig Other Floridian God Father Role Blocker Pardoner A few of these may stand out as being neutral as opposed to pro-mafia, but don't be fooled. ANYTHING that adds additional KP to the game is bad for the town. Why? Obviously first and foremost because they hasten the end of the game for the town, considering that town players have a very bad track record with extraneous KP. Second, not only does a missed shot eliminate a town player, it also eliminates a Power Role. Every player should be assumed to have a role, which means if a town player uses KP and misses, we may lose a vital role for the town. We have lynches as town, so lets kill players that way. Comp Vig: I've bolded CompVig in that list for a very good reason. I believe that this role is perhaps the most important in the game. In unknown hands (mafia hands) CompVig doubles the Mafia KP. In known hands(Town or Mafia) the CompVig doubles our lynch Power. Each day we vote on who the compvig will hit that night. IE, CompVig: Qatol. In PYP1, the CompVig was held by a mafia, but it didn't matter, because he followed the town direction and killed who we wanted killed. If the CompVig doesn't follow our direction they die. Yes, in PYP1 the CV only hit townies, but he hit scummy townies that were up for lynch, instead of hitting townies who were playing pro-town. This is a huge difference. I propose that whomever gets 1st pick takes CV. To not take CV as first pick is, in my eyes, extremely anti-town. We absolutely MUST know who has this role. Once we know, the power of the role is neutralized. Bad Santa is the other important role on this list, and is the most useful role on the list for town to have because it has a hint of investigative power, and gives information to the town. The other 6 roles are all pro-mafia roles. Some people are saying we as town should try to take these roles so that mafia cannot get them. I disagree with that sentiment. The better route to go, is to have every pro-town player avoid these roles like the plague(with the exception of CV). This means that our Role Cop(already essential for town), becomes a super cop. Because anyone who has any of those 6/7 roles is automatically a mafia member. None of those 6/7 roles are powerful enough to warrant us blocking the mafia from getting them, so we should steer clear of them and give ourselves a bonus on investigation. Also, by leaving DayVig, Bad Santa and Vengeful Player(??) for the mafia to take, it makes Bullet Bill much stronger by him not getting confused by pro-town players with guns. Other Good Roles for Town Alignment Cop Bulletproof Veteran Meth Man Doctor Doctor These roles don't really need any explanation. They are all much more pro-town then pro-mafia. This leaves the last three(unless I missed some): Mason Martyr Copy Cat Mason is powerful in the right hands. Martyr is so-so. Copy Cat is not real important in my eyes, given that we start with a lynch, so the mafia can't snipe the CV and then scoop it up. However, if we lynch someone on Day 1 who is Vanilla, then we run the risk of having mafia take the CV via the Copy Cat, which would be very bad for the town. For this reason, I think we should have whoever is at pick #5 be responsible for taking Copy Cat. Thoughts? If mafia chooses to take the pro-mafia roles, that's great. It gives us more effective investigative powers. If mafia chooses to avoid the pro-mafia roles, that's also great, as it keeps the most effective power roles from the mafia. We should probably have some way of divvying up the 5 essential roles so that we know they all get taken. Possibly divide the first 15 draft picks into 5 groups of 3, and give each group 1 of the essential roles. 1-3 Role Cop, 4-6 Tracker, 7-9 Watcher, etc. Then whichever player wants an investigative role knows which one they can pick. IE, the 7th player wants an investigative role, so he knows that his option is watcher. Something like that. Thoughts? To recap: We prioritize the essential 5 roles for town and make sure they get taken, no town players take any of the pro-mafia roles, first draft pick takes CV, 5th draft pick takes Copy Cat. The town has the advantage in this set-up, we just have to be smart enough to use it. Please address as many points here as you can. Agree or Disagree. This is when we make our plan for the entire game. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Also, numbers/draft order don't matter. Last game we pegged mafia because they didn't overlap numbers, and they were spaced out. Obviously that only works once, and mafia either will or will not choose to overlap their numbers, or space out their numbers. It's all WIFOM now, so becomes irrelevant. I could care less where I land, and any other town player should as well(or mafia for that matter). With a good plan in place, it really doesn't matter where the mafia land in the draft order. I forgot to mention the Serial Killer. Serial Killer, you need to be playing pro-town. If you start eliminating pro-town players, mafia will win, and YOU WILL LOSE. The only situation where the SK can win is if you first eliminate the mafia. Also, consider, that if you play pro-town enough, you can start to soak up hits from the mafia as they try to NK you. This is a very good thing for you. Until at least 2 mafia are dead, you want to play pro-town. | ||
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On August 21 2010 03:46 SouthRawrea wrote: Another small point but pardoner can be good if they're in town circle. If somehow mafioso starts a lynch against a townie that the circle knows is confirmed (if town circle has no huge town influence yet) then pardoner can pardon, thus being confirmed as a townie and then be the mouthpiece for town circle. Circumstantially dependent but has potential to be very good. The only problem is the pardoner has to keep their cool. There are no PM's this game. No PM's means any town circle is out in the open anyways. Yes there is a Mason, but he can't make a circle. On August 21 2010 03:42 SouthRawrea wrote: I would have to disagree about Vengeful Player. As long as the VP keeps their cool, they can make the choice to kill or not to kill. If we somehow end up being split between the VP and another player, we can have both of them die. As well, if we're stuck in a 1 mafia 2 townie situation, VP claims and we lynch them. Thus we get two shots at killing the mafia as opposed to one. (We still win if only 1 villager and 0 maf are left standing) If a mafia decides to somehow counter claim VP in any situation where they claim, we have a good lynch target for once we get multiple suspects. VP is very useful and can act as a normal townie if they choose meaning it's a pro-town role. A pro-town Vengeful Player should never, ever use their kill. No town player should ever use additional KP, other than the CV. The repercussions for being wrong are far too large in this set-up. If you are wrong, you just killed a blue role. Not worth the guess. We decide on lynches and CV hits as a town, and that's that. Not to mention that VP is far less useful then the many other pro-town roles. Good feedback though, keep it coming. | ||
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On August 21 2010 02:26 rastaban wrote: Oh, also I wanted to get this LIST out, it is the power roles as I see them. This doesn't incorporate the value of denying a role since that would make it much harder to rate these and will depend on the person. So a role like GF is bad for town good for mafia, but it might be worth taking to deny mafia the role. One of the things we really need to decide is how we want to play this round and what information to reveal, Is it better for town to deny powerful roles from the mafia or to get powerful town roles instead. Obviously we will need to balance this out but looking at the extreme ends of things can really help with deciding how we want to do this. Normally Mafia KP is to be 1/10 of total players, in this case it would be 2. and drop down once enough were dead. The game is counting on the mafia getting roles to compensate for this. Meaning if we can deny them the roles they want the town will be almost guaranteed to win. If instead we go for critical town power roles we make it hard for mafia to hide since we can lynch anything anti-town. (framers and GFs etc). and if we coordinate well we have so many blues, that even with their power roles the mafia won't be able to keep up. Now we aren't picking roles yet, just numbers but I wanted to get these ideas out there for town who haven't been able to review the previous game. It will help you in the choices you make this game. You're forgetting about the SK. Even though mafia KP is 1, SK is also 1, so it's balanced like a normal game. CompVig actually puts it over the top for KP which is why it's so important we use the CV as a double lynch. | ||
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Radfield
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On August 21 2010 04:00 rastaban wrote: Radfield, I haven't gotten to read your whole post yet, but I did want to let you know the watcher this game is not the same as in most games "at night you can choose to watch a player and receive information in the form of how many people visited the target that night." so it looks like he only gets a number and not any roles, you will see on my list that I have it rated fairly low for this reason. I think it is a fairly useless role for all teams. I am sure there are ways it could be used but off hand knowing if 1 or 5 people visited someone at night isn't very useful. You're absolutely right, Watcher is quite weak as is. That really sucks. Pandain's Post + Show Spoiler + On August 21 2010 04:07 Pandain wrote: Hmm... that was a really interesting read Radfield. I'll address my thoughts I suppose. 1. Controlling the Compulsive Vigi and making him do the town's will is a very good plan. This way even if he is mafia, than we can still force him to do what we want. However, I just want you to clarify why it will be good despite what I am about to say. Sure the town might have extra kp, but that all revolves around the fact that we would get the right hit. If we miss, than all it does is hurt the town. That's why I think that if we don't have a sure fire hit or something, we should have the roleblocker block the Comp Vigi on that night. Slight modification that only helps the town. That's where the roleblocker will be valuable, again imo should be taken. 2. Alignment cop I feel can be VERY useful. I disagree with him being a less than optimal townie role. While you are right that he cannot find GF or Serial Killer, there are more scum than there are GF's. Alignment cop, if we find out his sanity(which I think he could probably find out on his own in a couple days, less if we use a plan[Joat+Alignment Cop combo]) in my opinion might be the best role. It seems to me alot of your "essential list" revolves around the fact they can find the GF/Serial killer. Yet what if they choose not to get GF? Even if they do, its only one scum out of many. Alignment cop would be better for general purposes. 3.We don't have to worry about Vengeful player adding kp, as we would've already lynched a mafia by then. 4. Like this idea. Already outlined my thoughts on VP. I suppose the day vig should be left for the mafia to take. Unsure...elaborate on why we'd rather have mafia than town have it? Just so bullet bill is stronger? I might agree, just want to hear some more on this. 5. Why #5 take copycat. Really would like to hear why this specific number 6. You say the watcher and tracker are on the essential list, but I don't see why those are better than other roles. Sure, they can find GF and we should probably have one of them, but scum have roles to don't they? Bit unsure as to what will happen if tracker tracks mafia with role. Will have to check. 1. "getting the right hit" doesn't really matter if we're killing off someone we would be lynching the next day. A double lynch is almost always good for town and bad for mafia, and that's exactly what this is. The roleblocker idea is a good one, but I don't think good enough to be worth taking a role that otherwise doesn't do much for the town. There are plenty of more helpful town roles. 2. Alignment Cop is a good town role, just not a great one. The scenario you put forward to establish the Cop's sanity involves both our Joat and Cop roleclaiming. Which means even once he figures out his sanity, the mafia can just snipe him. It also burns up the Joat's only dt check. Again, Alignment Cop is good, and should be taken, but is simply not as good as the other 4. 3. Either I'm misunderstanding you here, or you are misunderstanding me. By KP I meant any role that can kill another player, not the general mafia KP(which is always 1 in this game). Maybe I'm not understanding though, help me out here. 4. If the town have no roles which carry guns, then Bullet Bill becomes a sane alignment cop, which is very powerful in this set-up(there is a reason that the AC's sanity is unknown). Every player with a gun is mafia, every player without one is town. If town players start taking Bad Santa and Day Vig, then Bullet Bill becomes far far less useful, because he can't be sure if someone is anti-town or not. 5. I picked 5 randomly. Anything higher is fine too. #2 might even be better. The real key here is that if the CV is the first power role dead, we NEED to know where the Copy Cat is. 6. Watcher is a lot worse than I previously had supposed. Tracker however is a great role, because is can gather a tremendous amount of information. It's almost as good as a dt, since it will track a mafia or SK to a kill. If it tracks someone to a player that didn't die, then that player is likely a pro-town power role. Notice that the only pro-mafia role that visits someone is the roleblocker, vs 5 or 6 for town. You do raise a good point though: @ ACE, if I track a mafia roleblocker, where does he go? To the KP target, or to the roleblocked target? Likewise a SK roleblocker. I'm assuming that they always get tracked to the kill. | ||
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Radfield
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On August 21 2010 04:21 SouthRawrea wrote: Err.. The 2 vil 1 maf scenario stands and the other scenario still stands if there is a 50/50 shot at getting the mafia, not if the town nonchalantly assumes if there is a 50/50 shot. I'm saying that they should otherwise just pretend to be a normal townie. Sure it's not a power role but it's 100% town favoured. I agree that in that scenario the VP would be nice to have. However, that is an unlikely scenario. In pretty much every other scenario, it hurts the town to throw around KP. Keep in mind that I'm particularly talking about THIS setup. In a normal game, it would be a good town role, because it is basically just a vigilante. However, even a vigilante in this setup is a bad town role, because the consequences of a miss are much greater. In a normal game, if town misses with some KP, it's very likely they'll hit a townie, not a blue. In this setup, it's almost assured that a miss will take out a blue role. I shouldn't have said never, but I was trying to get the point across about town KP. Anyways, that point aside, I'd like to hear your thoughts on some of the other issues I raised. | ||
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Radfield
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A potential flaw in avoiding the red roles and leaving them for mafia is if the mafia end up swiping the role cop or Bullet Bill, depriving us of our most important investigative roles. The key to leaving the red roles for mafia is that we have the role cop and Bullet Bill to sniff them out. Therefore I propose we prioritize getting these roles quite highly: #1 Takes Comp Vig #2 Takes Copy Cat #3 Takes 50% Role Cop, 50% Bulletproof #4 Takes 50% Role Cop, 50% Bulletproof #5 Takes 33% Role Cop, 33% Bulletproof, 33% other pro-town non investigative role(AC or Doc) We prioritize taking the role cop, and mix in the Bulletproof to try to ward off the easy mafia snipes Next most important Town role is Bullet Bill in my eyes. #6 Takes 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Veteran #7 Takes 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Veteran #8 Takes 33% Bullet Bill, 33% Veteran, 33% AC or Doc Next is Tracker #9 takes 50% Tracker, 50% Meth Man #10 Takes 50% Tracker, 50% Meth Man #11 Takes 33% Tracker, 33% Meth Man, 33% AC or Doc Something like this, maybe joat should be mixed in with the 33%. General idea being that we prioritize having good town roles with possibly some people turning out vanilla, than having lots of mediocre town roles, but possibly not getting the really important ones. We would also have the last 4(?) drafting players pick investigative roles, just to make sure they actually get taken, and that the odds don't screw us. Please if your going to argue with this, argue the concept, not the specifics. Is this a good general idea, is there a better plan out there we could use. Or, if you want to amend the specifics please do, but be constructive: what are better percentages, more important roles, etc. Thoughts? | ||
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Radfield
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Glad to see we're thinking on the same page. Any other potential flaws you see? | ||
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On August 21 2010 06:40 Bill Murray wrote: We should claim what numbers we picked. Pandain claimed 6, for instance, so I know that one of us needs to change our number choice (him), because I sent that in last night I also saw someone (radfield I think?) picked 5 Everyone should claim what they're picking I didn't claim anything, I'll probably RNG. Why does it matter where you pick? I don't care if I'm 1st or 20th. As town we are a team, and will hopefully be following a pro-town plan. Honestly, I think it makes much more sense to plan out what every pick will take(percentages) then just having everyone wing it. Do you agree with this or do you think it is better for the town to wing it? Yes this means mafia can swipe some town roles, but that means they're forced to take roles that don't benefit them. Keep in mind, if everyone was vanilla in this game, Town would have a slight advantage. Mafia need the extra help, so taking town roles helps us more than them. Also, why did you send in a number last night if you just found out you were playing today? What does everyone claiming their numbers do? Why would people do it? What advantages does it incur for the town? | ||
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Radfield
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On August 21 2010 06:41 Pandain wrote: Great catch Chaoser. (definitely picking you once I get Mason XD). Usually I don't suspect people on day 1 but this was such a big slip up. Any plan that involves people should be wary of Darth now. meh, I was also assuming there were 4 mafia. All this shows is that Darth played PYP1. With the influx of anti-town roles, I can't imagine there are any more than 4 mafia, which means there are either 3 or 4. | ||
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On August 21 2010 08:28 Bill Murray wrote: see, this is where radfield is being unhelpful. Just claim some numbers, man. you are, too, citi.zen, for joking. You know what I mean. I know Radfield is helping through policy discussion and game theory. Durr. chaoser:4 Pandain:6 Bill: 7 Hesmyrr/zeks: 8 you see how this helps, now? I was going to pick 6. I had sent in [6] [4]. I knew to change when I saw pandain say that. Mafia will be picking single digit numbers, honestly. The highest they might pick is around 10-12, but I seriously doubt that. ( i think they did that last game, though, but it was honestly dumb to do that) I won last game by picking like [17]. We didn't claim what we were picking, so there were a lot of doubleups on numbers. If the town coordinates on the numbers they're picking, the mafia will be forced to claim and follow what they claimed, or lie to us. I just don't understand WHY we're telling our numbers. It doesn't DO anything. Great, we all say our numbers and have a list of 1-20, because no one overlapped, now what? Mafia are randomly scattered through the list based on how quickly they check the thread. Town doubling up on numbers doesn't cause us a problem. Sure if Mafia had #1-4 it would be bad for town, but only marginally so in that it would throw off our percentages for the role picking list(if we decide to do that). A mafia getting pick 5 or pick 15 doesn't matter, because mafia will be taking mafia aligned roles and town will be taking town aligned roles. In the case where mafia starts taking town aligned roles, that's actually better for us. blah blah blah blah blah... who cares anyways The real reason I think this is silly is because it has the illusion of activity and content, when none is actually being generated. I'll admit that this does have the benefit of meaning mafia won't get a ton of early picks, and will likely be randomly spread out. In the interest of not discussing this further, I will take #10. Post your numbers then people, but lets bring the discussion back to role picking and our general game plan moving forward. | ||
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Radfield
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Likewise, if Darth is picking second, is he prepared to take Copy Cat. Again, it's very important that we know where Copy Cat is. The reason being, some random mafia gets Copy Cat, and we lynch a vanilla townie on day 1, then on night 1 the mafia can kill the CompVig and Swipe the role. Of course the doctor comes into play, so this probably isn't that big of concern. Anyways, the real question is, are people prepared to follow a town role picking plan, or are people simply going to pick whatever they want to pick. | ||
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On August 21 2010 09:22 DarthThienAn wrote: I mean, obvious solution is that doctor protects CV night 1. Mafia want to take their chances? Let them, lol. It's true, there really is no reason to put CC at #2, especially considering we have 2 doctors. I don't think we should be clearly stating who gets bullet bill or Role Cop, etc. These roles need to be hidden from mafia, or at least mixed around with Bulletproof/Veteran/Meth Man. Hence my whole post with the percentages. There really is no other role that needs to be kept track of like the CV(or inventor last game). I'm going to write up a list tomorrow morning of what I think our role drafting order might look like. That should give us a day and a half to amend and change it. If anyone else wants to feel free as well. | ||
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# Watcher - At night you can choose to watch a player and receive information in the form of how many people visited the target that night. Just to clarify Ace, this is not a regular watcher as far as what is commonly seen on TL. This only returns how many people visited a certain player, and not their names? If I decided to watch Qatol, I would get back something like: "Qatol was visited by 2 people last night" as opposed to "Qatol was visited by Ace and Caller last night" | ||
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Mafia Roles: Floridian God Father Role Blocker Pardoner Bad Santa Vengeful Player Day Vig Traitor Prince of Darkness Town Roles: Role Cop Tracker Joat Bullet Bill Alignment Cop Bulletproof Veteran Meth Man Doctor Doctor Mason Copy Cat Watcher Other: Comp Vig Martyr Bold- Essential town roles Italics- Defensive roles I proposed earlier in the thread that we as town simply do not take any of the roles on the red list. The reasons being that it makes our role cop more powerful, and makes Bullet Bill more powerful. The most useful roles on the red list for mafia are Bad Santa and Prince of Darkness. Bad Santa could give the mafia 2 extra kills, and PoD deprives us of a lynch. Both of these are worth taking to deprive the mafia of their abilities. Bad Santa is also a decent town role as it does act as an investigative roles, the key is to not ever use the killing power. The most useful roles on the green list for mafia, are the Joat and the Role Cop, and then it goes down considerably from there. Bullet Bill would be useful for mafia, but only indirectly, as it would deprive us of one of our best investigative roles. In light of this, I think our role picking list should look something like this: #1 Comp Vig #2 Bad Santa #3 Prince of Darkness So we take the three most dangerous roles as the first 3 picks. We use Comp Vig as the double lynch, we use Bad Santa solely for it's investigative powers, and not it's KP. Prince of Darkness never gets used. If Prince of Darkness gets used, then we have a sure-fire lynch. If extra KP from the bad santa is getting used(which should be obvious since we should never have 4 deaths in a night if the Joat holds his shot appropriately), then we lynch the bad santa. Either way though, this keeps vital mafia roles in known hands. #4 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each) #5 50% Joat......... 50% Defensive role #6 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #7 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role #8 50% Joat.........50% Defensive role #9 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #10 25% Role Cop, 25% Defensive role, 50% pro town non essential role(Doctor, Doctor, Alignment Cop, Watcher, Copy Cat, Mason. You choose) #11 25% Joat, 25% Defensive role, 50% pro town non essential role #12 25% Bullet Bill, 25% Defensive role, 50% pro town non essential role #13-16 we prioritize tracker and the rest of the pro-town roles #17 50% role cop, 50% other #18 50% Joat, 50% other #19 50% Bullet Bill, 50% other #20 50% tracker, 50% other What I'm trying to do here is make it most likely that we get our investigative roles, while protecting them by mixing in the defensive roles. Also trying to make it more difficult for make to swipe roles. Last PYP as Serial Killer, I was super paranoid about going after the Meth Man, as it was one of the only ways I could die. Right now, players 4-9 each have a roughly 17% chance to be the Meth Man, and a ~50% chance to be a defensive role. Hopefully this is enough to protect those people most likely to be our Joat, Role Cop and Bullet Bill. If we use this plan, what's the most effective way mafia/SK can screw us. First, they can snipe from #13-20, knowing that those players don't have any defensive powers. However, those players are also the most likely to be vanilla, so that's ok for town. Second, a high up mafia(2-6) could swipe Meth Man, or the Joat/Role Cop. Taking the Meth Man would make it easier for them to try to snipe at #4-9 and take out our investigative roles, but there are still Vet and BP, and importantly this would deprive them of a red role. Mafia taking Joat/Role Cop is unavoidable no matter what we do, which is why we have them as high as possible, forcing mafia to possibly get a vanilla role if they try for them. So mafia will try to take town roles with their high picks, and then pick up the red roles with their low picks. That's fine to me as it means the role cop can narrow down his search to the lower ranks. Or, the mafia play along with the percentages, and draft according to the plan. This is great for us, as it deprives the mafia of the most vital red roles, while still allowing town to have most of the vital green roles. Town goes from having a slight advantage to a very large advantage. Anyways, lets talk specifics here. What roles am I overvaluing/undervaluing? How can mafia exploit this? Are there any other roles that are particularly valuable for us to deprive mafia of? Does a different mix of percentages give us a better chance to get the best roles? | ||
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Radfield
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On August 21 2010 19:50 Bill Murray wrote: JeeJee: 1 DTA: 2 rastaban: 3 chaoser:4 LSB: 5 Bill: 6 Hesmyrr: 7 zeks: 8 (unless he changed) rastaban: 9 Radfield: 10 johnnyspazz: 11 Pandain: 12 citi.zen, vx70GTOJudgexv, SouthRawrea, SiNiquity, ~OpZ~ , Fishball, BrownBear, Divinek I just realized why this is a very, very bad plan if everyone doesn't go along with it. By everyone publicly stating their numbers, it makes it extremely easy for mafia to somwhat rig the draft to their liking. After looking at the plan I proposed, mafia realize that it would be very beneficial for them to hold the number 3 draft spot(prince of darkness). Lets also say that LSB (the 5th pick) is mafia. So the mafia would have two other players double up numbers with rastaban and chaoser, and voila, mafia have pick number 3. Of course, if everyone declares their numbers, we can easily track who didn't land in the proper spots, who doubled up, and who benefited from the new draft order. We could pinpoint mafia fairly easy. BUT, if some people don't tell us their numbers, or RNG, or don't check the thread again, then it becomes much more difficult to pinpoint the mafia, and lets them manipulate the draft as they see fit. This gives us two options: we put pressure on the last 8 players to reveal their numbers, or we scrap the plan and all resend our numbers. At this point it makes sense to simply carry on with our number picking. I hope this makes sense to the folks who haven't sent in numbers yet. | ||
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On August 21 2010 21:40 zeks wrote: Radfield: "If Prince of Darkness gets used, then we have a sure-fire lynch." DTA: "Prince of Darkness is a huge role to designate, because it forces mafia to never use it, unless it's endgame or unless they want to be revealed." how will prince of darkness l be revealed after using his power? i thought the power is activated through secret PM The idea was that a particular pick(in this case #3) takes the Prince of Darkness. That way we know where it is. If it ever gets used, we lynch whoever is pick #3 I am fine with your plan to prioritize some roles. However, you are not confirmed town right now. You should not make up the list with exactly who gets what role: as you yourself said, it makes no difference if a particular townie picks first or last. Please drop the public number claiming. You're right. We can't have both public numbers, and a plan to organize picks. If I'm going to decide which roles are getting picked at what draft number(no one else is really weighing in too much on it), then we can't have public picks. Given that I'm unconfirmed, I could manipulate the pick order to benefit the mafia. This means there is no way any town player can have faith that I'm not manipulating the order, so there's no reason for anyone to have faith in the role picking plan. Given that it's far more important for the town to have a role picking plan, then to have public numbers, we should drop the public numbers, and all just RNG a number(Or privately pick a number). It's also important that we hammer out the details of the plan before the draft order becomes public, because at that point we run into the same problem. I will be RNGing my pick, I recommend others do the same. The benefits of publicly claiming numbers was always very minimal to town anyways. | ||
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Sinquity, we could have another pick slightly lower down (#2-5) also take Comp Vig. This would double check that the first player actually did take the CV role. We could also add in a percentage for taking CV in the 4-6 slots instead. Citizen, the reason I would be against lynching the CV on day 1, is that the role doesn't hurt us until late game. As long as the CV follows orders, we get a double lynch each day. A double lynch is always advantageous for town, as it means we get to kill off 2 people each day/night cycle instead of 1. Without the CV role, Mafia/SK have a KP of 2, we have a KP of 1. With the CV role, Mafia/SK have a KP of 2, we have a KP of 2. Big benefit for town. At some point the CV becomes a liability(if we keep mislynching), but at the start of the game, a CV following orders is a plus for the town. If the CV ever doesn't shoot the proper player, then we lynch the CV, and the player who was supposed to get hit. | ||
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#1 Comp Vig #2 Bad Santa #3 Prince of Darkness So far the same, but then: #4 33% CV, 33% Bad Santa, 33% PoD This makes it far riskier for mafia to mess with the top three picks, and riskier for them to try and let CV or PoD slip further down the list. It's possible that mafia could get pick #4 and one of the first three picks, but that can't be helped too much. While this does mean that the #4 pick will likely be vanilla, it seems quite worth it given that it reduces the likelihood of mafia gaining a large advantage through the draft. Also, with this set-up of planning our picks, #4 is no really more valuable than #20 for a town player. Everything else gets bumped down by 1. I've got more to add, but I have to go right now. | ||
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#1 Comp Vig #2 Bad Santa #3 Prince of Darkness Same as before, put these roles dangerous anti-town roles where we can find them #4 33/33/33 CV, Bad Santa or PoD This is to assure that if mafia are pick #1,2 or 3, then there is some inherent risk in them not taking their assigned role and trying to let it slip to a lower mafia buddy. #5 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each) #6 50% Joat......... 50% Defensive role #7 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #8 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role #9 50% Joat.........50% Defensive role #10 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #11 25% Role Cop, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #12 25% Joat, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #13 25% Bullet Bill, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) The change here obviously emphasizing the doctor role over the other pro-town, non investigative roles. #14. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other(Alignment Cop, Mason, Martyr, etc.) #15. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #16. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other We pick up our last essential investigative role here with the tracker, and also hopefully scoop another doctor #17 50% role cop, 50% other #18 50% Joat, 50% other #19 50% Bullet Bill, 50% other #20 50% tracker, 50% other Same Also, remember that part of the key here, is that no town players take any of the other pro-mafia roles, which allows our Role Cop and Bullet Bill to function at a much higher capacity. Those roles are: Floridian God Father Role Blocker Pardoner Vengeful Player Day Vig Traitor These changes do two things. They add in some assurance that a mafia at 1,2 or 3 can't let a role slip down to a mafia ally, and they increase our priority on picking up a doctor. This plan however, leaves slots 14-20 as quite vulnerable to hits from both the SK and the Mafia. Therefore, our medics need to be protecting these slots(as well as the CV slot) to increase the chances of blocking a hit. Spots 2-4 don't really matter if they die, spots 5-13 have a decent shot at having a defensive role. Is there any reason that people would be against this plan? Opz, you stated you don't want to follow this plan, do you have a particular reason? Stating "game starts to me after i get to pick my power" is a little silly, as obviously the game has started. Town, Mafia and SK all know their roles, the game is on. Having the town organized on picking significantly helps in my eyes. Do you have a reason you think everyone picking for themselves is the best course of action? Questions, Concerns, Thoughts? I'd love to hear some more people weigh in on this. | ||
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On August 23 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote: I like this plan. Urge everyone to look over this and folllow it, paying special attention to what roles NOT to pick. I would wish alignment cop would be more likely but oh well, I guess its okay. I think both Doctors and the Alignment Cop will get taken. Likely by people from 14-20. | ||
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On August 23 2010 08:57 citi.zen wrote: If the town commits to not taking some roles, don't they become "reserved" for mafia? Absolutely, but remember that the most powerful mafia roles we're taking preventatively (PoD and Bad Santa). Lets take a look at the roles we're actually leaving them: Floridian: A good role for mafia, particularly in the end-game, but likely not one that will hurt us continually as the game goes on God Father: Not a real great role considering we have a tracker, role cop and bullet bill, all capable of finding him. Role Blocker: A weak role until we start publicly claiming roles, then it becomes quite strong. Likely the mafia will take this role. Pardoner: A weak role, only useful in the late game. Obviously the way we're playing it, anyone who uses the role is mafia. Vengeful Player: OK, but there are better roles for mafia to take. Day Vig: A decent role for mafia, but by leaving it for mafia, it actually becomes less powerful, since anyone who uses it will be insta-lynched at the next opportunity. It really functions exactly as the Vengeful Player, an after lynch attack(see PYP1). It's important that this role stays out of town hands, as it would reduce Bullet Bill's effectiveness. Traitor: Mafia will not pick this. Honestly, none of these roles really frighten me, and when you look at the glut of pro-town roles we should be able to pull down, I think we'll be in pretty good shape. | ||
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I just don't trust you to follow the plan if you land in a top spot, and you played really poorly last PYP. Anyways, hopefully you enjoy it down here with me Also, I picked 6,2. So if you picked 6,1 it means that bumatlarge also doubled up with you. | ||
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On August 23 2010 11:07 Divinek wrote: so according to your plan radfield do us guys down here just try to take random ass roles and hope for the best? If by "random ass roles" you mean the very non-random percentages i've layed out at each spot, then yes. #1 Comp Vig #2 Bad Santa #3 Prince of Darkness #4 33/33/33 CV, Bad Santa or PoD #5 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each) #6 50% Joat......... 50% Defensive role #7 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #8 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role #9 50% Joat.........50% Defensive role #10 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #11 25% Role Cop, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #12 25% Joat, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #13 25% Bullet Bill, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #14. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other(Alignment Cop, Mason, Martyr, etc.) #15. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #16. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #17 50% role cop, 50% other #18 50% Joat, 50% other #19 50% Bullet Bill, 50% other #20 50% tracker, 50% other | ||
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SK also still needs to worry about the tracker too. My thought is that's the role that SK/Mafia will try to kill off first. | ||
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Ace, I had no idea you could do that List=ordered thing. Very cool OK, this was our number list before we decided not to do it publicly. From the looks of things though, most people stayed with their same number JeeJee: 1 DTA: 2 rastaban: 3 chaoser:4 LSB: 5 Bill: 6 Hesmyrr: 7 zeks: 8 Radfield: 10 johnnyspazz: 11 Pandain: 12 Looks like Jeejee got doubled up with BrownBear. Darth either picked 6 or 1, and then Rastaban, chaoser, LSB, Hesmyrr and Zeks are all lined up in a row.
From a mafia point of view, Rastaban and Chaoser have benefited most from Brownbear's doubling up of JeeJee. Darth, I'd like to know what numbers you picked, and why. Anyways, I doubt we can read much into the numbers anyways. If I was mafia, I would have had everyone RNG anyways. Last game, the mafia's numbers ended up being a give-away. I doubt they would do it again(although not many players here were in PYP1) | ||
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I'll be doing mine shortly. | ||
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On August 23 2010 15:43 Bill Murray wrote: I'm also going to be voting you this entire game until you die. Sounds good, that seems very anti-town though. Instead of searching for scummy players, and trying to win the game, you're knee-jerk trying to vote for me and going to do it the entire game. Not to mention you're giving yourself an excuse for voting, so no one can analyze you vote history Good luck trying to get enough votes to get me lynched.As you well know, chances are very good I'll be dead after night 2 at the latest, so you might as well put your vote somewhere useful. Also let me be clear BM. It's nothing personal, and I like having you around in the games when I play. I'm not trying to be an ass here. I just think it's too easy for people to policy lynch you, and as you've admitted before, you are a 'gut player' and not necessarily a 'logical player'. For these reasons you could be a liability higher up in the draft list. Honestly, if you were planning on following the plan, it shouldn't really matter to you where you draft. If you weren't planning on following the plan, then surely you see that I was justified in doubling up numbers with you. | ||
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On August 23 2010 23:16 ~OpZ~ wrote: I picked Day Vig before Ace redesigned the Draft list...Now that I'm higher on the list...I think I'll be getting something more...useful. Why are you ignoring the plan? It's like you're determined to be hard-headed about this "game hasn't started" business. Let me quote Ace for you "The game has now officially started!" Either post why you think the plan has flaws so we can iron them out, like citizen is doing, or help out by coming up with something else. Don't make excuses for why you're not helping. Citizen, I have more to say to address and expand on your concerns, I just don't have the time right now. Also, People may need to send in new roles to Ace since the drafting order has changed. | ||
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On August 23 2010 23:55 citi.zen wrote: I like the probabilistic nature of the list, but still fret about how the mafia/Sk can take advantage of it. Some concerns: 1. "Reserved" roles. Lower drafting mafia (and the SK, for that matter) can take whatever role they want and claim they didn't get any role. For example, grab any of Pardoner / Floridian(great for SK) / Role Blocker / God Father then say "uhhh... I went for a defensive role but it was taken". I know Radfield said he's not too concerned with these roles, but to me they are a HUGE deal late game - think of all the missed lynches we can have. They are, after all, in the game to help the mafia. It's true that in principle we could verify "plain vanilla" claims, but in reality sorting it out will take too long & the mafia can always justify their claim based on how dead people flipped. So all these roles are too safe for the mafia to grab for my liking. 2. Blue sniping. The list still makes finding investigative roles quite easy once the lynchings start. Once the meth man is dead th SK can get a very clear hit list with likely bullet bill and the tracker candidates. I cannot emphasize this enough: once the drafting phase is over, don't start claiming your roles in the thread unless yo are 100% sure it leads to catching a liar. You might think claiming what you got or didn't get does you no harm, but remember it will also reveal information about other players. 3. The list. For me there are two key town investigative roles: bullet bill and tracker. These are great roles to find mafia and the only ones to detect the SK. The alignment cop is also important, but given their uncertain sanity + inability to detect SK/GF it's a lot weaker in my book. I'd suggest prioritizing bullet bill over all other investigative roles, placing tracker next on our list and leaving the alignment cop for last. Finally, please don't just feel like you are doing your job at this stage by using an RNG and calling it a day. Help us improve this plan by thinking critically, or we'll be screwed later on. First off, something we need to be very careful of: If we follow this plan, no one can reveal if they got, or did not get the role they went for. DO NOT STATE IF YOU GET YOUR ROLE OR NOT. Posting that you are vanilla gives the mafia the information they need to hunt down our powerful investigative roles. It's very important that everyone's role, or lack of a role, is kept hidden, at least for the first part of the game. Citizen, remember that by leaving those roles(Pardoner, Floridian, RB, GF) for the mafia, we also gain another powerful investigative role in the rolecop. Which takes us from BB and tracker, to BB, tracker and rolecop. So I think it turns out fairly neutral both ways; If they choose to go after the more powerful roles, then we also get a more powerful rolecop. Again, no one should be claiming what they did or did not get in the thread. The exception to this would be if you were pick 5 and went for rolecop (or pick6 and joat, or pick7 and Bullet Bill) and the role was already taken. Since you are the first person available to take that role(according to the plan), it means a mafia must be in front of you, and swiped the role. On August 24 2010 05:42 ~OpZ~ wrote: And also, Radfield, you seem to be in the same mindset as PYP 1. Weren't you SK that game? My recommendation would be for Radfield to be tracked night one. BM to be Bullet Billed. If there is a watcher, I'd say watch Radfield, and I would be more than happy to request medic protection on him. I would look into Fishball also, but knowing what I know about Fishball, I wouldn't expect too much from him til later in the game. <3 Fishball I was SK that game, and my plan was to play extremely pro-town, which I did with stunning success. So much success, that the mafia Day-Vigged me. So if you're trying to say I seem extremely pro-town, then thanks But you raise a good point, at no time can anyone be confirmed to be non-SK solely through their actions. The SK should look like a townie, because it's in the SK's best interest to kill off the mafia.Also, If you truly think I'm the Serial Killer, you would try to keep me around, not try to kill me off. I made cases against and lynched a mafia on both Day 1 and Day 2 in PYP1, as well as soaking up a hit from the mafia. At pick #16 I don't need medic protection. Honestly, chances are I'll end up vanilla, which means it's my job to take hits. If I last past night 2, then we can start burning up investigative night actions on me. It's far too early to be trying to place night actions anyways. We still have 48hours before day 1 ends, and 72 hours before those night actions need to be in place. Plenty of time to scum hunt. | ||
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 Chances of people not working off the right number becomes a concern.Doesn't really matter though, there should be enough redundancy that we get the roles we need anyways. | ||
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On August 24 2010 09:22 Divinek wrote: cite penalty mafia last game, jeeeeeeesus i thought we were doomed with him on mafia i would be okay with it too, especially for a day1 Lets not start a BM bandwagon just yet, it's too easy for mafia to hop on board that particular train. We still have 48hrs before the lynch happens. @ACE: As far as lynching goes, if one player reaches a majority at any point during the day, is that player lynched at the end of the day, even if he no longer has a majority? Also, I'm assuming for continuities sake, that the lynch will always take place at 9EST? | ||
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Bonus for town, since all three of those are pro-mafia roles. | ||
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On August 25 2010 03:59 citi.zen wrote: Jspazz is likely mod-killed. The list is making me uncomfortable since the mafia and SK will know pretty well where to look for what roles. Are we scraping it after #4? Maybe add copy-cat at 5? Yeah, while I was out today, I noticed a few gaping holes in the plan. I'm not even sure if I should post them or not given that we might not have enough time to change. | ||
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Anyways, I think we should be sticking with the plan, and hoping that our role cop can help us out if the mafia decide to go for the 'mafia' powers. The plan at least assures that we should have a glut of very pro-town roles, so we'll be able to combat the red roles fairly effectively. | ||
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On August 25 2010 09:59 chaoser wrote: so i should be getting bad santa? sigh..wanted joat... Honestly if you took roleblocker instead of bad santa, I wouldn't be upset. But yes, you should take Bad Santa. | ||
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The only addendum I think really may need to happen is picking up the roleblocker fairly high up. | ||
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On August 25 2010 11:52 zeks wrote: well the copycat is now the mason i presme? Only good thing to come out of this. What happened to the plan Divinek?? Arg. Thank god he wasn't a good role. | ||
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However, if a night goes by where not enough people die, and no one claims they took a hit, then we need to start lynching and CVing those top 4. Zeks at pick 5 is a different problem. He is likely a pro-town role, so the mafia will shoot there first if they want to find the traitor. We want to keep him alive though. So night one we check him with the rolecop, and protect him with one of our doctors, and then he's in the clear. So, I think we should just leave the traitor alone for now, and let the mafia start shooting at those roles at the top. Shooting the mason day 1 actually really helps us, as we can completely cut the top 4 people off(no Copy Cat). I have some suggestions on how we should be using various powers, and on who to lynch, but I'll post that later on tonight. Just wanted to weigh in now on the traitor. | ||
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On August 26 2010 04:16 LSB wrote: After another readthrough. Personally, I think it would be more likely for SR to take vengeful player than traitor. If that is so, it is not a good idea to lynch SR, because he could just add kp, but rather we should have the CV kill off SR I want a bit more time before i make a decision Im 60% sure that SR is the vengeful mafia (a great way to pull off an extra KP, trying to get lynched) But im going to need more proof Are you kidding?? I'm 60% sure of nothing right now... | ||
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On August 26 2010 04:17 rastaban wrote: Good post, but I think you have Chaoser and I mixed up in your list or something. I am comp vig not him. He should have taken bad santa. Also how did Subversion get in there? He drafted 7th I think. | ||
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On August 26 2010 04:20 Fishball wrote: Funny Traitor wannabe's, lol. First off, Hesmyrr, we already know that rastaban would choose the CV and should be the CV now. Why would you pick CV in the first place? I don't really get it. As for SouthRawrea, there is always a possibility that he is lying. The only logical motive I could think of if he is either Mafia/SK, is that he is wants to plant a seed of doubt in our top 5 draft picks. However, these roles, if done according to plan, are mainly Mafia aligned roles. Offing these roles doesn't exactly impact town much at all. However if the town pushes hard and goes through that list, then it could work as a decoy and waste our lynches/CV kills. Long shot? Yes. Likeliness? 33% I'd say. Excluding SR himself, and rastaban who should be the CV. These are the people remaining on the list. 2. chaoser 3. LSB 4. Hesmyrr 5. zeks If we are indeed looking to cast a vote among these people, before we make a decision, I suggest everyone should ask themselves a few questions. - Is SR's claim likely to be true? - If yes, is Hesymrr likely to be the Traitor? - If no, who else could likely be the Traitor? Right now, I'm inclined to believe SR's claim, but I'm not entirely sure who could be the Traitor. Although I'm still wanting to hear the reasoning from Hesymrr, why he would pick CV when it was a general consensus that our #1 draft pick should pick it. Did you read the plan? | ||
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Therefore, it seems a no-brainer to lynch one of the first 4 players. Seems highly likely that Rastaban is the CV, unless both him and Hesmyrr are lying(Hesmyrr went for CV). Since CV is not a threat if we know where it is, he's off the list. That leaves picks 2-4. The most dangerous player there right now is pick #3. If LSB is mafia, and took PoD according to the plan(which he likely would if mafia), then chances are he will use it tonight. With all the focus being on picks 2-4, there is a very good chance he will get found out in the next day or so. Hence, if mafia, he will use the power tonight. What I'm saying here, is that if we accept that picks 2-4 are equally likely to be the traitor, then we should lynch pick 3, solely for the additional reason that if mafia, he is extremely dangerous, and will likely use his power tonight(so time is of the essence on the lynch). Thoughts? | ||
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On August 26 2010 06:11 Hesmyrr wrote: I don't understand the argument. There are likely traitor among #2~4, and we lynch #3 b/c he picked PoD (not traitor)? What? What I'm saying is: Lets assume all three spots have an equally likely chance of being the traitor. So how do we decide which player to lynch? We have to look at other factors to differentiate between the spots. The other factor I think we should look at is "What player can hurt us the most by being mafia?". In my eyes, a mafia PoD is the worst, particularly in the short term. Yes a Bad Santa mafia can deal some damage, but only over time and we should be able to figure out if the Bad Santa role gets used. Does this make sense? I'm not sure if I'm doing a great job explaining. | ||
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Joat: Here's the way I think you should use your powers. Night One: Investigate If you find a mafia, then Shoot him on Night 2 If you find a townie, then Talk to whomever you think is most pro-town and reveal the info on Night 2 Night Three: Protect We'll likely have some public investigative roles who need protection by now. Night Four leaves you with either Shoot or Talk. I recommend holding your shot until an investigative role finds a red. Talk can obviously be used at your discretion. Rolecop should check Zeks tonight as we need to see if he is the traitor without shooting him. Bullet Bill should check Pandain Tracker should check Bumatlarge I pick up scummy vibes from both these players. If people disagree that's fine, needs to be discussed. Doctors should be weighting their protection between zeks, picks 14-16(likely trackers) and then slightly less on 11-13. 7-10 should be fairly protected via their likelyhood of having Vet, BP or Meth Man. Bad Santa: Chaoser, assuming you are town aligned and picked Bad Santa, keep in mind that you have a fairly good investigative role. Since we all know you are the Bad Santa, you should be providing your list to the town right off the bat. You have 5 people on the list, if one dies and you don't get the option to shoot, it makes the others on the list more likely to be townies. You should keep your list to yourself for now(so mafia/sk can't abuse it) and reveal it at a time when you think we can glean some useful info from it. The rest of the roles can do whatever they want. + Show Spoiler [ unrelated] + I feel like I've just realized why the Martyr role is kinda good, in that it allows an investigative role to claim and still get a decent measure of protection. | ||
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On August 26 2010 09:07 Fishball wrote: At home now. I was on lunch break when I wrote the longer post, smart ass. Yes, I do know about the plan. I know it's 33% between CV, Bad Santa or PoD for the fourth draft, but to me at least, CV is guaranteed to be gone. It is one of the more powerful and interesting roles, regardless of alignment, when compared to others. Technically, I would only choose between Bad Santa or PoD, which increases my chance to actually land a blue role, as these two roles are somewhat less interesting (if you are not Mafia) compared to CV. Also, as the first pick, you just have to take CV. Let's say you are Townie, and you don't pick CV; When the town asks you to hit someone and you can't, you're just drawing unnecessary suspicion to yourself, and would most likely end up wasting the towns' resource, or worse, getting yourself lynched. If Mafia/SK doesn't pick CV, and they can actually hit whatever target the town wants them to, that would also be bad since the real CV would know they are lying. This is all probability, but that's just how I see it. It might sound like I'm accusing Hesymrr in my other post due to my wording, but I'm simply questioning his motives behind picking CV. Is it just random, random? Or is there actually more reasoning behind the decision. I realized I was being a bit redundant. Who would confess the second time if a person lied the first time, especially when he is not caught? Anyways, the explanation above is where I'm coming from. The reason we felt it was important to put CV in that list of roles pick #4 should go for, is the possibility of a mafia at pick #1. If Mafia get pick #1, they can let the CV role slip down to another mafia at a lower pick. All of a sudden mafia KP gets doubled, and we have no idea who has the CompVig Role. By having Pick #4 randomize between the first 3 picks, it made it more risky for the mafia to employ this strategy. Siniquity raises a good point, Hesmyrr is more likely to be the traitor given that he has much better cover. Both pick #2 and pick #3 run a decent chance of getting immediately caught by pick #4. Hesmyrr also has his history of being very against a traitor role, which also adds to his cover. He's a strong player though, and a loss to the town if he flips green. Also, we should give suggestions to the SK on who he should hit. SK should be playing pro-town right now, and should be eliminating shady characters, or inactive players. | ||
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On August 26 2010 09:28 Subversion wrote: shame, pandain always has suspicion thrown on him. last game i played with him he was also suspected quite a lot, but he was in fact town. not that he's above suspicion, just take ur feelings towards him with a pinch of salt. This is good to know. I haven't really played a game with him before, so it's important to get the perspective of people who have. | ||
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I don't feel particularly strongly about any other player, and even if I did I doubt I could change many minds at this juncture. ##Vote Hesmyrr On August 26 2010 12:03 ~OpZ~ wrote: Right...Wow... ##Vote Radfield "Alignment Cop is weak compared to Role Cop" That ends my reasoning. Wow. We just walked down a windy road to death. I love how you're complaining about the plan now. I posted my final plan about 36 hours before the drafting deadline, and posted my opening notes about 3 or 4 full days before the draft took place. Plenty of time for you to look through it and find any problems. Too bad you decided not to start playing until AFTER THE DRAFT. Really could have used your input about 3 days ago. Not to mention you obviously never even read the plan in full. I detailed several times why I thought role cop was a far more powerful role then Alignment Cop, and I stand by that reasoning. Twice this game you've tried to cast suspicion on me. Please focus your attentions elsewhere. I've said it before: If I'm still alive after Day 2, then you can start looking at me a little harder. Anyways, Inactives. This game has been going almost a week(since we got our roles), who hasn't posted much: Brownbear - on the verge of being Modkilled DarthThienAn - A few posts with content, not much. Claims he's SC2ing JeeJee - Lots of little posts addressing people, no content. Seems like actively lurking. Chaoser - A bit of activity, not much content. Giving an excuse for less activity in the short term: Just got his wisdom teeth removed Probably a few others, no one really jumps out at me though | ||
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Has nothing to do with this lynch, but I thought I'd mention it again. | ||
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On August 27 2010 09:09 Ace wrote: Sure, I'll make it so that Night 1/Day2 ends/starts tomorrow night @9PM ET. Perfect, thanks Ace. | ||
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On August 28 2010 00:18 JeeJee wrote: i do find it odd that sr is asking himself to be lynched just because he guessed the traitor placement wrong. if anything, he should get cv'd, but if he flips vanilla town, we wouldn't be any further along and i don't think a mafia would just ask for a selflynch (wifom blah blah) otoh is traitor hunting even that high of a priority? unless mafia kp goes up to 2 with that extra player, its not like it's monumental enough to drop everything else imo No it's not that high priority, but it was worth going after on a day 1 lynch. We'll see what we have to go on after night 1. That being said, we cannot rely on investigative roles to win us this game. My plan was designed with the hope that we would get as many investigative roles picked, but that doesn't matter anymore. There is a chance that town has zero investigative roles, and we all need to play as if that is the case. Yes we should be listing players and suggesting targets to the investigative roles, and obviously we'll deal with claims as they come up, but we absolutely cannot rely on any roles to actually find us anything. We all need to scum hunt, and we all need to work with what is in the thread. Here's what everyone has claimed so far: [list = ordered] rastaban---- Comp Vig Chaoser ---- Bad Santa LSB ---- Prince of Darkness Hesmyrr ---- Vanilla Zeks ---- Role Cop, Defensive role or Copy Cat(??) Southrawrea ---- Traitor ------> Vanilla Subversion --- Picked whatever, Did not follow the plan Fishball Opz ---- Followed the plan --> Joat or Defensive role Citizen BrownBear JeeJee DarthThienAn siNiquity Divinek ----- Day Vig Radfield Bill Murray ---- Mason Bumatlarge Pandain ---- Mason [/list] The people in the middle may or may not have followed the plan. Frankly it doesn't matter at this point, and all of you should keep your mouths as shut as possible regarding your roles(unless there is a reason of course). All I'm saying is, we all have to play our best to find mafia. We can't just sit back and hope that the Cops/Tracker/Bullet Bill will save us. Everyone should be searching and everyone should be very active. So far in this game, very little pressure has been put on any inactive player, and that needs to change for Day 2. | ||
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On August 28 2010 00:18 JeeJee wrote: i do find it odd that sr is asking himself to be lynched just because he guessed the traitor placement wrong. if anything, he should get cv'd, but if he flips vanilla town, we wouldn't be any further along and i don't think a mafia would just ask for a selflynch (wifom blah blah) otoh is traitor hunting even that high of a priority? unless mafia kp goes up to 2 with that extra player, its not like it's monumental enough to drop everything else imo You're right, that is odd. Hesmyrr was perhaps the most likely, but picks 2,3 and 5 are also very plausibly the traitor. Looking at zeks' spot, it actually makes sense for him to go as traitor. He is in a key spot for the town, and by not picking like he was supposed to(role cop or defensive role), he cuts down on our having a good town role. So by picking traitor, he both helps the mafia, and hurts the town, all in one blow. If we do have a role cop, I think it's worth checking zeks, as the role cop is the only investigative role that can determine if he is the traitor. I think if we do decide to kill Southrawrea, I agree it should be via the CompVig, solely for the chance that he could be the vengeful player. | ||
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Darth is a good choice for BulletBill. JeeJee is a good option for tracker. I would also support Fishball or Bumatlarge. Both pick #2 and pick #3 are good options for an investigative role as well, as those are dangerous slots. Alternate options for BulletBill would be any of the players listed above, except for Chaoser at pick 2(Bad Santa will return a positive) I think rolecop should look at zeks, but of course Chaoser or LSB would be fine as well. Joat, if you are going to use your 'investigate' tonight, I recommend not looking at any of the first 6 picks. Those spots will likely get resolved through checks and lynches over the next few cycles. Instead I would look further down the list. Players not worth checking in my eyes are Opz, Citizen, Brownbear(modkill?), Siniquity, Divinek or Pandain. However, a check on any of these players is fine as well. Citizen, the watcher role sucks, so we don't have to fear too much about mafia finding out our blues through us telegraphing our moves. There is no other role that has that kind of investigative power. Doctors, this may sound cheesy, but I recommend one of you look at protecting me tonight. I have a fairly long history of dying night one, and I plan on doing some serious scum hunting this weekend. Consider it at any rate. | ||
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On August 28 2010 07:48 BrownBear wrote: I'll claim. I missed the rolepicking deadline, so I'm vanilla. And I know I've been inactive, I'm sorry. It's about to be orientation week and I'm working my ass off. WTF? I said to NOT claim. Claiming helps the mafia far more than helping town. Do not claim your roles! | ||
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Assuming people followed the plan( ), we have 4 possible role cops.Zeks: Could be traitor Fishball: 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive Role Brownbear: Vanilla Bill Murray: Mason Good chance we have no role cop.... Anyways, Fishball becomes a higher priority medic protection. Mind you he is still a 50% Defensive role, but if Mafia have a roleblocker, they may roleblock + NK. It's what I would do. Not even sure who's around right now. Remember medics, there are 2 of you(hopefully) and the Joat, so feel free to flip a coin or RNG between the potential candidates. | ||
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Someone took a hit from the mafia. If you took a hit, might as well tell us. Just say "I have taken a hit". No need to mention a medic or bulletproof or anything. We can all stay in the dark as far as that's concerned. However, if you got shot, you are off the list of mafia(but not SK) I assume that it was a medic protection, since I also assume that mafia have the roleblocker, which means defensive roles shouldn't scare them too much. Also, why was subversion vanilla scum?? I assume it's because he didn't read the plan and took PoD, CV or Bad Santa. There is really no reason for mafia not to get every role they wanted though. In fact, the plan assumed this. This bodes well on the mafia not really communicating well Best case scenario all around! | ||
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On August 28 2010 10:23 zeks wrote: Considering the benefits of hitting me: 1. Role cop - you nail a good town role 2. I'm suspected of being a traitor - hitting me might possibly nab the traitor 3. One less possibility of someone being traitor Still a chance you're the traitor and they hit you last night | ||
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Going into last night, mafia had a few options. Obviously they want to use their abilities to try and pick up the potential traitor. The traitor is in one of 4 spots. 2,3,5,6. If we assume that the mafia only picked up red roles, and didn't risk getting vanilla by going after townie roles, then the only role they have with a night action is roleblocker. If I'm mafia, I would roleblock zeks, and target someone else. I wouldn't roleblock zeks, and then try to NK him. Roleblocking zeks is great, because if he's traitor you pick him up, if he's town(50% role cop) then you block his power. Also, you avoid the potential of him being the meth man and blowing yourself up. The only real reason I can see the mafia targeting zeks with a NK, is if they don't have the roleblocker. Just to be clear here zeks, you were not roleblocked, correct? My guess is, if the mafia don't have the roleblocker, the SK does, which is a scary thought, but means that a mafia likely got vanilla trying for it. Or the mafia avoided the red roles to try and blend in against the role cop. All that aside, who is our likely traitor/red in the top 6. I'm inclined to believe Southrawrea at the moment. He looks bad for going after the traitor role, but after he tried for it and failed, it makes total sense that he would claim it in the thread. That story makes more sense to me, and is more believable, than him being a mafia and playing the way he has, with some grand scheme to delay us or use vengeful player etc. Personally, I think zeks is likely the traitor, and I think it likely that he got picked up last night. More likely than the others at least. I believe there is an easy way to mainly clear zeks in my eyes. He roleclaims. At pick #5, zeks would risk a lot by lying about his roleclaim. He stated he followed the plan, although he actually contradicted himself: First he very clearly states what he did On August 25 2010 10:42 zeks wrote: i used random.org went exactly with this: #5 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each) 1-50 rolecop 50-67 vet 67-83 bulletproof 83-100 methman just sayin, i'm hoping everyone below me follows the plan as well. Then 12 hours later, he states that he actually went with a different set-up?? On August 26 2010 00:33 zeks wrote: you did go with radfield's list? if everything went according to that then the people who picked before you: rastaban - CV chaoser - Bad Santa LSB - PoD Hesmyrr - said he was picking anti-town role (if i remember correctly) Me - role cop / copy cat / defensive role (33/33/33) i know u shouldn't be announcing the role but this could be a place to start Oops. That's a bit odd. Care to clear up for us which one you actually went with Zeks? Even if that was an honest mistake(uh huh), lets look at what a roleclaim would mean. Zeks is either a role cop, a defensive role, or maybe the copy cat(?). Anything he claims is at a risk to double with someone below him. Fishball is a 50% role cop. 3 players below zeks are 50% defensive role, and another 2 are 25% defensive role. Copy Cat is testable since presumably he had to mason up with someone, so that person could vouch for him(with no risk to the other person). Either way, it forces zeks(who I believe to be the traitor) to take a risk, where we could immediately pin him. There is potential that a mafia member has the role cop or defensive role, which would allow zeks to make an uncontested role claim, but at least this gives us a chance.
Thoughts? Please keep in mind that the top three players all would run a 33% risk of immediately being found out by hesmyrr if they chose traitor. Also note that in my eyes Occam's Razor would lean towards Southrawrea telling the truth(it's less risky and less complicated). Zeks is also in the position where him taking traitor hurts the town and helps the mafia at the same time, making it extra advantageous to take traitor. I would like to hear everyone's thoughts on this. Personally, I think we should lynch zeks. Zeks flipping traitor gives us an excellent paper trail as well, and I have what I think is a great CV suggestion if he does indeed flip red. | ||
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I hope one was a rolecop, as that would clear things up. | ||
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On August 29 2010 02:43 SiNiquity wrote: So bum watches zeks, 4 people (presumably all mafia) visit zeks in the night (i.e. target to kill). Is this number the pre- or post-SK kill? Depending on the answer there's either 4 or 3 mafia members remaining (5 or 4 if zeks was recruited). I think that is wrong. I think a watcher would only see 1 person visit if only the mafia targeted him. Ace, care to confirm? | ||
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Bumatlarge is one of the people who targeted him I would guess(Are you able to confirm that Ace? Whether or not the watcher is included in the number) If that's the case, then a doctor or 2, and the mafia or mafia +roleblocker visited zeks last night. Outside shot that a doctor, mafia and rolecop visited. | ||
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Which is resolved first, mafia dying, or mafia killing? | ||
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On August 29 2010 03:04 ~OpZ~ wrote: Well time for Zeks to role claim. xD He's either BP, or Vet. Yup, because there are very likely 4 mafia to start, which means no medic visited zeks last night. The watcher role actually comes in handy! I wouldn't have though it possible I can't believe picks 5 and 6 might have both picked traitor.... so sad. I have a feeling we have very few investigative roles. | ||
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On August 29 2010 03:10 ~OpZ~ wrote: If you don't mind, Radfield. Sir, I would like your opinion also. Yeah, I'm not 100% sure what you're asking me. Going through 7 games is a bit daunting, especially without the 'All' function. However, I'll certainly take your word that he's posting more than normal. As far as my opinion on his play this game, he was basically off my radar until your post. I didn't have him down as scummy, nor as pro-town. I had looked through his posts once before, but had mostly skim read them. Looking through his posts again though changes my mind slightly. He has posted content, but also a lot of small one-two liners. His content also mainly consists of talk about the traitor, or other minor theorycrafting/questioning. His large posts focus on the traitor scenario(laying out options), the CompVig(clarifying why hesmyrr picked CV), a vote on Hesmyrr, another post about the traitor. He hasn't seriously fingered anyone as scummy, in fact has gone out of his way not to. He also hasn't really contributed anything as far as opinions or specific thoughts. My read on him is certainly more scummy than before. Enough to recommend investigation, but not yet a lynch. What are your thoughts? | ||
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On August 29 2010 03:23 citi.zen wrote: Is the watcher included in the count of 4 people they see during the night, or is it 4 people excluding the watcher? Also, does a role take precedence over the mafia hit from the watcher's perspective? Ex: is a mafia doctor protects someone other than Zeks, would that medic not be counted in as a visitor to Zeks? From what Ace stated above. No the watcher is not included in the number, and ALL mafia are included in the hit. By the way, thanks for the prompt responses Ace. | ||
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On August 29 2010 03:20 Pandain wrote: Speaking of which, I feel like it's time to say something. This either gives town more information, or more importantly leaves scum unsure who is who. I did not pick mason, even though I did originally. I changed it n.n That's great news, and a good move whether you are lying or not. I would say this actually gives both town and mafia less information and also means you may have a role instead of being vanilla. It also means you're more likely to draw a hit, given that if you followed the plan you have a decent shot at Bullet Bill/Alignment Cop/Medic. | ||
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If someone gets killed on your list and you have the option to take a shot, you should inform the town. It may be advantageous to use your shot if there is someone particularly scummy on that list, but we would need to discuss it as a town. Once two people on your list are NKed, I think you should inform the town. Not sure of this, but the idea would be to somewhat clear peoples names. If the Serial Killer is killed, then you should reveal your list as soon as someone on it is NKed, because if you are not given the option to kill, it means that everyone else on your list is not mafia. Does that make sense? Likewise, if all the mafia are killed, and someone on your list is NKed, you should reveal your list. Once again because anyone on your list would not be the SK. There may be other scenarios here as well, so use your judgement. But remember, never ever take the shot without consulting town, as firing on your own and missing might lead to us lynching you, thus royally screwing ourselves over. | ||
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Citizen, I'm interested to hear your thoughts. Anyone seem particularly pro- or anti- town. If you had to make a list of people to be investigated, who would be on it? Also, can someone please comment on the case I made for Zeks being traitor. | ||
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On August 29 2010 04:41 zeks wrote: Radfield: I went with the 33/33/33 role cop / copy cat / defensive role because there was mention that copycat should be picked earlier. I truthfully randomed my role. Something that I've discovered SR #6 below me is assumed vanilla town, Subversion at #7 was vanilla mafia Which means Subversion could've overlaped with 1. rastaban CV 2. chaoser Bad Santa/traitor 3. LSB PoD/traitor 5. me RC/CC/Defensive role/traitor Likelihood of Subversion picking CV next to nothing Bad Santa or PoD Don't see why Subversion will pick those either. Traitor: He's scum so he wouldn't pick traitor. me: RC/CC/Defensive Role Subversion likely overlapped with me and since Subversion is dead then it is likely that scum would know what my role is... Unless Subversion overlapped with SouthRawrea, then that means South never picked traitor in the beginning - which doesn't make sense because South would be a townie with a role but lied about being a traitor Thus conclusion: mafia knows my role and wants me dead by lynch since they couldn't finish the job last night Which is why I'm not claiming because they will call me out on it. Please roleclaim ASAP. Subversion came in late and claimed he did not read the plan. This could be BS, but either way there is a decent chance he chose PoD or BadSanta. Please roleclaim | ||
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Thus conclusion: mafia knows my role and wants me dead by lynch since they couldn't finish the job last night Which is why I'm not claiming because they will call me out on it. If this is true, they will have to sacrifice a mafia in a one for one trade. We'll lynch you tonight, and cv the other person overnight. Major win for the town. If this is what you're worried about, fear not, because it benefits us. Also, you've soft claimed rolecop already, so I'm asking you to hard claim it. Also, who did you investigate night one. You HAVE to claim at this point, or we will lynch you for not claiming, surely you see this. | ||
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On August 29 2010 05:01 Radfield wrote: If this is true, they will have to sacrifice a mafia in a one for one trade. We'll lynch you tonight, and cv the other person overnight. Major win for the town. If this is what you're worried about, fear not, because it benefits us. Also, you've soft claimed rolecop already, so I'm asking you to hard claim it. Also, who did you investigate night one. You HAVE to claim at this point, or we will lynch you for not claiming, surely you see this. Oh yeah, if anyone but fishball claims they are the rolecop, I would probably take your claim over theirs. | ||
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Defend yourself zeks I recommend you claim a defensive role. | ||
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You have no chance to survive make your time ##Vote Zeks | ||
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On August 29 2010 05:39 zeks wrote: Fine. I'm role cop. I checked Fishball - I don't want to reveal what he is as now we're practically in a mass roleclaim mode and it would not benefit the town to know what he is: however I will tell you that he did not follow the town's plan either. I have no idea how bumatlarge got only 4 people from his watch, because I'm not the SK and I lived - to my surprise so someone must've protected me. I know I'm going to die today as now I fit the perfect profiling of an SK - but please evaluate why LSB was so sure I was role cop - not to mention now only 2 suspects are remaining for the traitor and he is one of them. Radfields push for my lynch and wanting to know who I rolecheck I also find a little bit suspicious. I apologize for my poor play and allowing scum to corner me this easily. If I go down today I blame no one but myself. It's possible I may blame myself a bit if you don't mind "I have no idea how bumatlarge got only 4 people from his watch, because I'm not the SK and I lived - to my surprise so someone must've protected me." Don't worry, Ace probably messed it up For what it's worth, I still think you're the traitor, but the SK would be oh so nice. Maybe I'm seeing things through rose-colored glasses here. Can anyone lay out an argument how zeks is not an anti-town player? | ||
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I have a couple CV suggestions based on how he flips(traitor or SK) | ||
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Damn it. The ALL function is gone. I remember that someone(jeejee maybe?) posted a way to use add-ons or something to get a hack version of the all function. This was posted somewhere else in the Mafia forums. Anyone remember where it is or what it is? OK, lets move on. We need to cut the spam and discuss our options. We've bought ourselves a ton of time with the SK lynch, but we still need to focus. We have until tonight at 9EST, but can delay that to Monday at 9EST if needed. We need to decide on our night actions, and vote on the CV hit. Fishball is Bullet Bill(town or mafia). FIshball, since you are out in the open, you might as well declare who you visited last night. If you actually did find someone with a gun, then there is a 3/4 chance that it is a mafia(1 JOAT, 3 Mafia). Or if they didn't have a gun, we have someone who is verified town. Keep in mind that the only people who should have picked JOAT are Opz and JeeJee. So if you checked someone else and they came back positive, then they are likely mafia. Everyone please keep in mind that while Fishball is almost certainly the Bullet Bill. He is in no way confirmed town. It's very plausable that he took the wrong pick given the draft order moving around, but it's also possible that he is using that as an excuse and took BB to deny it from town. Importantly, we still have a traitor around. Either Chaoser, LSB, or Southrawrea. I felt pretty certain that zeks was the traitor, but obviously that was not so. My next choice would be LSB. Why? Mainly because LSB was so sure that zeks was the SK. He stated several times that he 'proved' zeks was the Serial Killer, when in fact he had done no such thing. I thought it far more likely that zeks was the traitor, and had been targeted by the mafia. But LSB never wavered from the idea that zeks was the SK, and really never even gave much of a chance for zeks to be the traitor. Perhaps LSB was just getting caught up in his own argument, or perhaps LSB is the traitor, and did actually KNOW that zeks had to be the SK. Add in that LSB is bragging up a storm about how he 'caught' zeks, makes me think that he is doing what he can to come off pro-town and use whatever credit he gets from the zeks lynch to avoid getting killed in the traitor hunt. Combine that with the fact that if town, LSB has a completely useless role, PoD. So we need not fear losing a blue role. That being said, chaoser could be the traitor, or Southrawrea could be fucking with us. Honestly, neither of these two players have posted a ton of useful content, so CVing either would be OK with me. Keep in mind two things though, if town, Chaoser actually has an extremely powerful role now. Imagine his list of 5. If one dies tonight, and he doesn't get the option to kill, then the other 4 players on the list are confirmed innocents. That is amazingly powerful, and worth keeping around in my opinion(at least for now). Second, Southrawrea being mafia and trying to fuck us around makes very little sense, but as people pointed out earlier, he could be vengeful player. If we are going to kill him, we'll want to do it with the CV, or the JOAT(or Bad Santa) My proposal for tonight: Compvig LSB Bullet Bill(Fishball) check Southrawrea Tracker follow Fishball Medic protect Fishball Once Fishball reveals who he looked at, the Alignment Cop should check that person, as it will help to establish his sanity(at least it will once Fishball becomes confirmed). Fishball you need to reveal your pick as soon as you can, to give the Alignment Cop time to get his night action in. Joat do your own thing, you either protected or investigated last night. If you investigated, you should Talk tonight and let someone know the alignment of who you checked. If you protected last night, you should investigate Fishball tonight, as knowing his alignment is highly beneficial to the town. Again, if you ever find a red you should claim in the thread. If your talking tonight, go with whomever strikes you as most pro-town. Keep in mind that SK is dead, so pro-town means town at this point(as opposed to a SK who is playing pro-town) Chaoser, you should reveal your list the moment someone on it gets NKed + Show Spoiler + Also, I feel it's important to note that the last two people who died both pointed FoS at me. If anyone else feels this way, let me know. I stand by every post I've made this game, and I feel like I've been playing decently so far. I have posted a ton of content, so there will always be things to nitpick, but I'm willing to defend it all. | ||
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Pandain should protect Fishball Doctors should protect anyone except players 2/3/6, Keep in mind that Opz and Citizen have a good chance of being defensive roles. Once again I ask that the Doctors think about protecting me. Siniquity is also a good choice, as is bumatlarge(basically confirmed townie). In my eyes Divinek is mostly confirmed, and may or may not be a candidate for protection. If mafia want to shoot at pandain that is fine, as his job is to die anyways(martyr). I don't think Jeejee or Darth should be protected. One because I have slightly scummy vibes towards those two players, two because they may have defensive roles. | ||
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On August 29 2010 22:12 ~OpZ~ wrote: Eh, I think peeeeersonally martyr shouldn't protect Fishball. What if we want to lynch Fishball tomorrow Radfield? Tha's true, I hadn't considered that. However, I feel like we have a lot of decent lynch candidates for tomorrow, so if we really want to kill fishball, we can always CV him at night. However, there is a potential that killing fishball will reveal alot of info that we would need for our night actions. Definitely a consideration. Personally I would still lean towards martyring on fishball. He's a hugely critical role if town, and martyr is a for-sure save. | ||
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I may be wrong here though, so if anyone disagrees speak up. | ||
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Yes the Joat should look at fishball . Either you are the Joat opz, or the joat talked to you last night, in which case you are a defensive role. Fishball, now you should definitely reveal who you checked. LSB: you raise a good point. Bullet Bill checking SR does not necessarily do anything, as mafia may not have converted him yet. Your solution baffles me though. You say that instead of BBing SR, Fishball should check you. But everything that holds true for SR also holds true for you. If you are the traitor then you are not necessarily a mafia yet, same as SR. Chaoser hasn't talked in a long time though. I'd like to hear his thoughts. | ||
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I'd watch Fishballs(yum yum) for the fun of it. | ||
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On August 30 2010 01:06 BrownBear wrote: Fuck me, I missed the deadline again. I thought it was tomorow. Looks like I'm to be modkilled, I'm really sorry guys. I was trying to wait for the last minute and overshot by... well, a lot. Not only have you not read the thread, but it's like you don't even understand the rules. Just modkill him anyways Ace, it will save us the trouble. | ||
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Okay, do I really need to explain again why Zeks could not be the traitor? My logic is impeccable. Subversion drafted role cop, but turned vanilla. Therefore Zeks is role cop. No if/then/or/buts. Zeks is the role cop. Zeks therefore is serial killer. I was absolutely sure after 1) Zeks role claimed rolecop (dumb idea) 2) Zeks started acting like he was cornered. First: we had no idea what subversion drafted, he could have gone for CompVig for all we knew. Second: Even if zeks did claim role cop, it could have still been bs, since of course he has to claim either role cop or a defensive role. But yes, it was foolish for him to claim role cop, that was his real mistake. Third: Zeks acting cornered doesn't make him more likely to be either SK or traitor. He was in the spotlight the moment I asked for his roleclaim, and he messed it up from there. At no point was the possibility of zeks being traitor zero. In fact, up until his admission of SK, I still thought he might be traitor. | ||
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On August 30 2010 02:59 citi.zen wrote: Radfield, I am confused with your proposals for tonight. For example, why CV LSB and use the Bullet Bill on SR? The way LSB flips will pretty much tell us what SR's alignment is, no? The issue I was thinking of, was that if LSB flips town, we still have to decide between chaoser and Southrawrea. BulletBill is useless on chaoser. Chaoser also has a useful town role right now(if he's not the traitor). By having CV on LSB, and BulletBill on SR, my thought was that we could resolve the traitor issue tonight. Then it was pointed out that if SR was the traitor, then there is a good chance he hasn't flipped to red yet, so the BulletBill would be useless. Which is a good point. BUT Does anyone actually think Southrawrea is the traitor? I don't. I think he's either a truthful town, or a mafia trying to screw with us(vengeful player, etc). Him actually being the traitor would be a bit bizarre in fact. My big hope was that we could resolve the traitor issue tonight. I'm not sure if that can happen anymore, so I'm open to other plans. Either a SR or LSB CV hit is fine with me. On August 30 2010 04:36 ~OpZ~ wrote: I was wondering why you visited me last night =/ Hold on a second here. Opz just claimed tracker, OK. I guess he didn't follow the plan after all, that's OK, there are good pro-town reasons he might take tracker instead. Fishball claims he visited Opz, which presumably he did, since Opz tracked him. One question Fishball: Why would you ever, EVER investigate Opz. Of all the people in the game, Opz is absolutely the worst for a pro-town player to BulletBill. Why? Because even if he has a gun, he is the most likely player to be the JOAT. Southrawrea had already admitted not following the plan, so that means Opz is a 50/50 shot at being the Joat. Of any player in the game, his result tells you the least, since if he shows up with a gun, you still have no idea of his alignment(unlike every other player in the game, with the possible exception of Jeejee, the other potential Joat). You either made a very stupid move, or one of two things happened:
You now have two strikes fishball: You picked Bullet Bill in the wrong slot You investigated Opz One more strike and you're out. In fact, we might be playing with a two strikes rule this game I'd like to hear what other people think.LSB, you still have yet to explain why you were so certain that zeks was the SK. + Show Spoiler [LSB's Defense] + On August 30 2010 03:09 LSB wrote: 1. You know that sounds dumb. I had this conversation with SR and Pandian before. Start here and read down http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=141431¤tpage=48#951 2. You know that is dumb too. Why in the would would zeks fake claim role cop? We already told him. If you claim role cop, we're going to kill you. The only reason why he claimed role cop was because he knew he had no other claim. 3. If he had a legitimate reason, he wouldn't have messed up. Okay, so your basic premise is that I am a converted traitor right? (because there was no way I could know this) BulletBill investigating me should take care of that. 1. It's dumb?? That's your defense? How did you KNOW that subversion drafted role cop, and not one of the other three very good mafia roles: CV, PoD, BS. You're acting as if this was a fact, when it was nothing of the sort. I will admit that Sub taking rolecop now seems more likely, but back then it didn't. 2. Zeks claimed rolecop because he didn't realize that it put him in a position of being only scum. Obviously had he realized this, he wouldn't have claimed it and sealed his fate. He just didn't realize. Similarly, if he was the traitor he could have made the same mistake. He had to claim something. He just made the mistake of not claiming the defensive role. Please explain why zeks was NOT the traitor. That is what I don't understand. Also, I think you are the traitor, doesn't matter if you are converted or not. Being traitor means that you could be sure that zeks was not. The only other option was Serial Killer. This is why I suspect you. To put it again: The only way you could KNOW zeks was the SK, was if you were the traitor(hence zeks could not be the traitor and could only be the SK). Because he had a decent chance of being either traitor or SK in my eyes. | ||
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On August 30 2010 07:28 LSB wrote: ik His claiming rolecop only confirmed my theory. My theory hinges on Subversions choice Honestly, I just don't get it. You could flip town right now, and I wouldn't be particularly surprised. I understand how once you figure out that Sub picked rolecop, the rest follows. That I'm fine with. But I don't see how you could be so sure that Sub actually picked that. Looking back, I agree with you the sub picked rolecop, it makes decent sense, and makes sense why they would try to kill zeks. But at the time it certainly was not that obvious. 1. We didn't know zeks' role. He might have been traitor, role cop, defensive role, etc. He hadn't claimed either way. 2. Subversion came in late, and it actually is quite possible that he never got to communicate to his teammates. Checking the times, Sub came in at 9:40, role PMs went out at around 11:30. It is very possible that his 3 other teammates were not around in this time, or the Sub didn't have time to hang around chat with them. He might think 'Who really cares, just send in a role and hope I get it'. Look at how much time Sub has spent on this game, it took him like 24hours before he realized he was dead. It seems plausible even now to me that he picked after a different role. Not likely, but plausible. 3. Even after zeks claimed role cop, that still didn't necessarily mean that it was true. Anyways all that aside, I'd still rather take you out than either chaoser or Southrawrea. Chaoser because he has a good role, and Southrawrea because I think he is telling the truth. On August 30 2010 03:14 JeeJee wrote: autopager addon for ff lemme know if you need help setting it up Thanks, I'm setting it up now, I'll PM you if I need help. Ace, for what it's worth I vote for an extension till tomorrow night. But If no one else agrees and if you have all your night actions in, I guess we can go ahead. | ||
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On May 07 2010 04:33 JeeJee wrote: btw those that are complaining about the lack of an all-button .. yeah i can see how it would be annoying. look into the autopager addon for firefox =) you can set it up for teamliquid as such: + Show Spoiler + On December 08 2009 13:57 onmach wrote: I had to tweak a few things to get it to work just right. For url pattern, enable regexp and use this: http://www.teamliquid.net/(forum|blogs)/view(message|blog)\.php.* For link xpath: (//a[text() = 'Next' and contains(@title, 'Next Page') and contains(@href, 'view')] For content xpath: //td[@valign="top"]//table[@width=600] Sure makes following the fitness thread easier. then you can just start at the first page, scroll down until the last page and you have your very own all button ^-^ It seems to take some micro management though, as it only loads the next page once I scroll to the bottom of the page. It doesn't just keep going all the way automatically | ||
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Do we have any way to find out Fishball's alignment? Bullet Bill, nope. Role Cop, nope. Tracker, nope. Alignment Cop, maybe. JOAT! Joat, you absolutely must use your check on Fishball. You are the only one that can. Alignment Cop should also check fishball just in case. Once we establish Fishball's alignment, he can do the rest. However, we need to be prepared for the possibility that Fishball's alignment cannot be ascertained. AC might be naive or paranoid, Joat may have already used his check, or one or both may not be in the game. In which case, we may need to lynch Fishball if he doesn't produce results. btw, you were already town in my books opz What do you make of Fishball checking you and not a different player? | ||
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rastaban Town chaoser LSB SouthRawrea Town Fishball Mid Scum ~Opz~ Town citi.zen Mid Town BrownBear USELESS JeeJee Scum DarthThienAn Scum siNiquity Mid Town Divinek Town Radfield Town bumatlarge Town Pandain Town Rastaban should eventually be lynched to delay the game if we can establish multiple investigative roles. | ||
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It's night time | ||
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On August 30 2010 19:42 ~OpZ~ wrote: Fishball was 50% role cop eh? And he's BulletBill? Maybe because he's...I dunno...Acting fishy as fuck. Not to mention when I'm in a game with Fishball I always use whatever night action I have on him Night One (seriously, it's like I have a thing for him or something, he attracts me on night one) And aren't you supposed to be analyzing shit? Oh, and one more thing Citizen. Fishball checked me, and I came up NOT holding a gun. a.k.a. CONFIRMED TOWN. Of course it needs to be mentioned that you could still be scum if both you AND fishball are scum. Seems highly highly unlikely though. So unlikely in fact, that it's really not worth discussing. | ||
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One last thing Radfield, and please keep this in mind; Never use a commanding tone on me ever, again. Really? C'mon now. I try hard in every game I play to be respectful of other players and acknowledge that this is a game of mafia and that at times people are actively trying to stir shit up. If you are trying to pick a fight with me, I refuse to bite. If you actually felt somewhat offended by my post, I apologize for that, but I fail to see any commanding or arrogant tone in my post. I asked you some questions and stated my opinion on you. If I tried to be cheeky at the end, at least acknowledge it for what it is, and don't take it as an insult. It's like you deliberately cut off this line "In fact, we might be playing with a two strikes rule this game I'd like to hear what other people think." in order to make me look more serious and condescending than I was.Anyways, your basic reasoning for why you chose opz is that a) you thought he was scummy and b) you have a history of doing illogical things for the fun of it. Neither of those really satisfy me, but again, I'd like to hear some other opinions. Talk about a hypocrite. (To those who still don't get it, he is the Tracker) Damn right I have my reasons to investigate him. It seems like you're trying to softball suspicion onto opz. That makes no sense. You yourself investigated him and found him to be town aligned, so why are you trying to paint him in a bad light? And if your trying to give him being the tracker as a reason why you investigated him, that makes no sense. Are you saying you suspected him of not following the draft picks? I've already done too much explaining. I'm not really sure what this means. How can you do "too much" explaining? If you're town you should be doing everything you can to prevent yourself from getting lynched. Honestly, I feel like LSB has done a decent job defending himself, and I'm getting a more and more townie vibe from him. Do you mean this discussion taking up too much of the thread and that we should be moving on to other issues? That's probably true if that's the case. | ||
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On August 31 2010 06:32 citi.zen wrote: Yes - if SR is mafia he also has a role, possibly Vengeful player, making him harder to lynch. LSB as traitor, on the other hand, is easier to lynch. So yeah, my suggestion is your plan but switching their names around. Yeah, either are fine by me, but my vote would still be on LSB. Medics/Martyr should be on Opz or Fishball/ or if not them, myself, citizen or Bum. There's a chance Rastaban might be killed tonight, since if he's town aligned he gives us a double lynch every cycle. If he isn't eventually killed by mafia(which would be foolish of mafia) we should lynch him. | ||
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On August 31 2010 09:01 Fishball wrote: If LSB isn't Mafia, nor the traitor, tracking him would do nothing. Also, seems like everyone is leaving chaoser out of the equation. What if we hit SR and he flips Vanilla Townie, and tracking LSB gave us nothing? That leaves us with chaoser obviously, but I'm just saying. Either way, this issue most likely won't be resolved tonight no matter how we switch our actions among these three, unless the person we CV is exactly the Traitor/Mafia, or the person we track is the Mafia. I'm fine with anyone of them being picked. The way I see it, Mafia most likely will not hit the CV, unless the CV is about to hit one of their own. Even if the Town uses the CV to hit one of their own, they might just let it slip by. Think about it, it would be very difficult for the Mafia to win with 1 KP against 10+ Pro-Town players left in the game. As long as the Town is able to choose the right targets, then we should be good. I think the reason chaoser is being left out of the equation for now, or at least my reason, is that if he's town, he has a really sweet role. He can confirm 4 people as innocent in one swipe if he gets lucky. But if we can't get much out of tonight, he skyrockets up the list. My thoughts on the CV, were that if rastaban is town(which the mafia will know), then his CV works exactly as a double lynch. I would say at this stage in the game a double lynch every day is extremely helpful. We kill 2 scummy players to every 1 confirmed player the mafia can kill. He's a huge town asset. That being said, we'll probably have to end up lynching him at some point if we run out of leads, so mafia killing kinda helps us anyways. Win-win for us if he's town. Jeejee, the reason you're on my scum list, is that you've said very little in this game, and had very very little content. You have yet to make a single suggestion on CV/lynching(you've voted though) or on night actions. Yet, you absolutely came alive on the zeks lynch, posting frequently. From a point of view where you are mafia this makes sense. You can push hard for his lynch because you know he's not mafia, and you know he's not town so it won't look bad. That is pretty much the only time you've actually posted a fair amount. There are a few other nitpicky things, but you really haven't posted any opinions at all for anyone to analyze or link. Nor have you actually tried to make a case against anyone, or really weighed in much on these traitor shenanigans. | ||
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On August 31 2010 09:38 Fishball wrote: I know what you mean, but you're missing the point, again. I'm just trying to look and explain from a Mafia stand point; It would also be Win-Win situation for the Mafia if the Town gets the wrong target, and would be reasonable for them to keep the CV alive. It's just the same logic. Basically, the outcome is determined by how well the Town uses the CV, and this is the most important part. On an unrelated note, a lot of people seem to have gone MIA for the past 48 hours, including rastaban himself. I hear what you're saying and I mainly agree. I guess what I'm trying to get across is that even if we mishit townies with the CV, we're still hitting townies we otherwise would have to lynch. Hitting scummy townies who are second in line for lynching is still a big benefit to town. It means we get to narrow down our mafia lists really quickly. I guess I just don't see any difference between the CV hit and our lynch(assuming rastaban follows the plan). Again for the record, if I die tonight my list(without traitor) is Jeejee, Darth, Fishball, Brownbear, Siniquity in that order. Chaoser needs to be dealt with if he doesn't produce results. Same with Fishball. Townies in my eyes are Pandain, Bumatlarge and Opz. Then Divinek and probably Citizen and Southrawrea. Hope this helps if I die. | ||
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Because at that point we knew he was either Sk or traitor, and mafia would know he wasn't SK. In fact, if Sub actually did draft at Role Cop, then you would know that zeks couldnt be BP or vet. Once Bums watcher analysis came out, you would know that zeks had to be traitor. I think that makes sense | ||
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Have Fun Now I can actually spend more time working and less time playing mafia | ||
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Excellent moderation by Ace. I really enjoy playing in your games. I though Pandain played really well down the stretch, as well as the 4 confirmed players. Also nice to know that the two players I got into arguments with, Fishball and LSB, were both mafia. Town was in a great situation early on though. SK hits a mafia night one, Mafia shoot at the SK night one, SK gets lynched day 2. This put the mafia in a huge hole to start. The Bad Santa falling the way it did basically finished the game though. Mafia would have really needed to pull out all the stops to win this one. Good Game all around, can't wait for PYP3 Edit: My plan was really pretty bad all around, but it partially did what I intended: Keep the powerful mafia roles away from the mafia, get important town roles into the game(didn't really accomplish this). Compared to last PYP we were miles ahead though. I'm curious as to how many people actually RNGed their role. If nothing else though, it got some people talking. | ||
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On September 07 2010 03:41 LSB wrote: My story I open my PM box. You are vanilla townie. And I was like ((((. I wanted to be mafia for a game (I was town for the other two games I played)But then, when I reviewed the roles, I saw traitor! I could be a mafia member! And I was pick #4 (at the start, before Ace revised his roles). Citi.zen, you almost caught me, I talked myself out of that one. After my pick was switched to #3, I realized that there was a 33% chance of Hesmyrr finding out that I didn’t pick PoD. What I needed to do was have a good alibi. I pretended to be inactive, so I could claim that I picked godfather, as so to deny the mafia 2 roles. Although it would fail after the first role check, it would buy some time I guess. After SR claimed, I figured that it was time to kill everyone around me and be the last man standing. (Well, later on I figured I couldn’t kill Rasta XD) I was hoping the mafia wouldn’t mess with the top and try to let me deal with it myself, but yeah, after Rasta shot me, things got sticky real fast I’m proud of the zeks kill! Mafia couldn’t kill zeks, so pushed the town to kill him! And yet your overzealous push made me strongly suspect you to be the traitor I think the biggest mistake town made this game was lynching Southrawrea over LSB. It just made so much less sense(in my mind) for SR to be making it all up.I died before I could do anything though so it hardly matters... | ||
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On September 07 2010 23:26 Fishball wrote: Well, sort of yes and no. When bum came out saying there were only 4 visitors , it didn't take long for Town and Mafia to figure out zeks was the SK. He was bound to be lynched. We actually hit zeks too, as we figured he would very likely be the Role Cop, and there shouldn't be any protection. The entire thing was just unfortunate. The SK needs us as much as we need the SK. When I was the SK I really felt like the mafia were the biggest threat to me winning, as I felt confident I could avoid lynches. Therefore, I tried to lynch mafia, while cutting down townie numbers at night. The mafia lynches bought me some townie cred during the day, while at night I could eliminate townies and get to endgame as fast as possible(I was Floridian). I don't think zeks hit in this case was anti-mafia. In fact it was very anti-town given that he was killing those most likely to be investigative roles. In this set-up that was the perfect play for the SK. You just got unlucky zeks that you were pick #5, a very prominent spot particularly in the plan we used. | ||
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The idea of claiming numbers beforehand was not my idea, It was Bill Murray's. I originally argued against it, then said fine whatever, then after more thought argued against it again. I certainly never said it was a good plan. I don't understand why town wouldn't want to double lynch each day. We all agree that a no-lynch is bad, so therefore a single-lynch each day is good for the town. Why does the line get drawn between a single lynch and a double lynch. Day one is of course a bit of a separate issue as I'm not sure a double lynch would really be a great idea. But once on Day 2, there is a wealth of info in the thread. At what point does lynching become detrimental to the town? 1.25 lynches per day? 1.5 lynches per day? I guess I don't see a benefit to drawing the line at 1 lynch per day. The way I see it, the better the ratio between town KP and Mafia KP, the better off town is. With a CV(working as a double lynch) town gets 2 kills for every 1 mafia kill. That means 2 scummy players are dying for every non-scummy player. In a regular game with 30 people or so, you'd be looking at 1 scummy player(lynch) for every 3 or 4 non-scummy players, a much more difficult task for town. Yes the CV hastens the end of the game, but unless your relying heavily on investigative roles or in a fairly inactive game, this isn't terrible. The fewer hits mafia get off the better, because it keeps the pro-town players alive. If town had infinity lynches and was active, that would be hugely in favor of the town, as they effectively reduce the mafia KP to zero. The issue though would of course be activity. Also, although mafia can dodge the CV hits via roleblock/Medics etc, that only delays the inevitable. If someone is up for CVing and miraculously survives the night, then you're going to lynch that person the next day, putting you no further behind then if the CV didn't exist. I do agree that the CV's uncertain alignment is an issue though and that he certainly needs to be lynched before the endgame. I also agree that having the extra hit can make people more slack about scum-hunting. When you only have one lynch, you treat that lynch as a precious resource. With more lynch power it's easier to slack off, although of course this doesn't need to be the case. Just wanted to make my thoughts a little clearer, as I felt you were missing my reasoning on the CV. I'm certainly not sure about any of it though, and am willing to be persuaded. | ||
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Several strong points: Denying powerful mafia roles by assigning them top slots(roleblocker should have been denied) Having town avoid 'gun' roles to make Bullet Bill much more effective Avoiding roles which are more beneficial to mafia then to town, making the role cop more effective. Using an RNG for defensive roles to try and minimize overlap(4 people sent in Meth Man at one point or another, no one sent in either Vet or BP at any time. It might have RNGed this way, but I bet people intentionally went after it) If mafia want to take Bullet Bill, Medics etc, I think that benefits the town in this set-up, as town still have powerful pro-town roles, while mafia is denied their dark-side equivalents. Mafia can try and muddle up the town with their roles, but that takes a lot of skill and is inherently risky for mafia. Much more so than hiding in the shadows using PoD and Bad Santa to bolster their KP and wipe out any strong townies. | ||
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Reasons it didn't get picked: Southrawrea(50% chance) took Traitor instead of RNGing a chance of JOAT Opz(50% chance) RNGed a defensive role JeeJee(25% chance) either RNGed something else, or didn't bother RNGing bumatlarge(50% chance) almost certainly did not RNG, and simply grabbed something he thought he could get. If all four players(All townies even!) had followed the plan, we would have had around a 90% chance of getting it(I think) | ||
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So again, my feeling is not that the mafia was underpowered, I thought the new roles and the traitor did what they were supposed to. They did get very unlucky and a bit disorganized early on, then unlucky again mid-game with the whole bad santa thing. I agree, It was an extremely unfortunate series of events for mafia. In PYP 1, even without the extra pro-mafia roles, mafia would likely have won had zona not been modkilled. They were in very good shape. As it was, town barely eeked out a win. | ||
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Also given the fact that in PYP town investigative roles will likely outnumber the mafia KP makes delaying the game more attractive as well. Again, thanks for laying that out, it makes a lot of sense. | ||
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