On July 21 2010 19:16 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Now you may think that it is too obvious for the mafia to kill off someone who publicly calls them out. It's not. It's good strategy. In fact, I myself killed off Foolishness in a game I won because he was one of the few suspicious of me. If someone suspects you, they won't magically think you're innocent if you let them survive the night. People's heuristics for determining who they will vote for don't tend to shift too wildly over the course of a game. Even if people make a mistaken vote early, they will tend to justify it ex post facto and perhaps continue it (maybe what I'm doing here, but I think I have some good logic to back up my gut feeling). If you are mafia, and a member is getting 3rd/4th place in votes, even with just a couple, that member could be in 1st a few days later. By killing off the people who are suspicious of you, even if their reasons suck, you get talked about less and you literally shave off your vote total. It's not too bad of a strategy to just play whack-a-mole going after all your public detractors because you can always just say you're getting framed. I've been there, done that.
Now you may think that it is too obvious for the mafia to kill off someone who publicly calls them out. It's not. It's good strategy. In fact, I myself killed off Foolishness in a game I won because he was one of the few suspicious of me. If someone suspects you, they won't magically think you're innocent if you let them survive the night. People's heuristics for determining who they will vote for don't tend to shift too wildly over the course of a game. Even if people make a mistaken vote early, they will tend to justify it ex post facto and perhaps continue it (maybe what I'm doing here, but I think I have some good logic to back up my gut feeling). If you are mafia, and a member is getting 3rd/4th place in votes, even with just a couple, that member could be in 1st a few days later. By killing off the people who are suspicious of you, even if their reasons suck, you get talked about less and you literally shave off your vote total. It's not too bad of a strategy to just play whack-a-mole going after all your public detractors because you can always just say you're getting framed. I've been there, done that.
This post here, to me, was the most informative. I have never had the chance to play a red role before and such added perspective really helped me decide on a lynch target. I'm also quite intrigued by why DTA didn't die yet; he's a very strong player (not so much this game though) and should be a priority kill.
##vote: DarthThienAn