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TL Mafia XXVIII - Page 103

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
July 24 2010 22:53 GMT
#2041
that was for
HOLY SHIT. I did not think of that. That is totally something BC would organize and for some reason I overlooked it. Tricode actually sticks out more to me but for some reason I haven't even been thinking about him since I figured 1 vigi 1 hatter made sense. Hmm... we're gonna have to think this through a lot more.


this threads activity has skyrocketed
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-07-24 22:56:29
July 24 2010 22:53 GMT
#2042
8] SouthRawrea (BrownBear, Tricode, Divinek, Lakrismamma, citi.zen, bumatlarge, youngminii, zeks)
6] citi.zen (SouthRawrea, tree.hugger, Siniquity, amber[light], BC, Pandain)
1] XeliN (zeks) EDITED OUT
1] ~OpZ~ (d3_crescentia)
1] Pyrrhuloxia (Misder)
1] Protactinium (LaXerCannon)
1] youngminii (tricode)
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
tree.hugger
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
July 24 2010 22:54 GMT
#2043
On July 25 2010 07:29 youngminii wrote:
This is ridiculous, I can't believe this many people are actually voting for citi.zen. Let me say it one more time.

There is more information to be gained if SouthRawr is lynched than if citi.zen is lynched. Also, you are a mafia noob, not just a mafia, not just a noob.

I think we gain plenty of information about this, seeing as how we have a 50% chance at catching mafia, and this is a split vote. Role list analyzing is going to be cake after today.

I call upon every player in this game to vote for either citi.zen or South. One of them is confirmed mafia. There is no hiding under this "I think they're all innocent" nonsense. Pick one.

But more importantly, pick citi.zen.

There are four possible outcomes:
If we lynch citi.zen the Mafia: Then it's the coup de grâce. We've taken out their best player, and we have two confirmed town members to form a circle around.

If we lynch citi.zen the Mad Hatter: Then we still have an intact town circle with a DT and a person who was checked. Also, citi.zen's bombs go off, and two people die. It's not unreasonable to assume that citi.zen, being an experienced mafia player and scum-hunter will have caught at least one mafia in his net. I'd trust his bomb placement, providing he has them.

If we lynch Southrawrea the Mafia: Then we've taken out the newest, or one of the newest members of the mafia team. That's about it.

If we lynch Southrawrea the Mad Hatter: Then chaoser dies—another player who is newer, and not really driving any buses. I know youngminii thinks he's mafia, but I think that's just silly. Decide for yourself, but I'd trust citi.zen's judgment in bomb placing over Southrawrea.

***

I think out of these four options, assuming for a moment that the probability of either being mafia is 50/50, then the obvious better outcomes will come from lynching citi.zen. I hardly think there's anything to recommend Southrawrea as a natural mafia, or even a natural mafia selection to go out and try to sabotage this plan. On the flip side, pretty much the only player on TL who I would expect to pull something as crazy as a MH/town circle claim as mafia is citi.zen. I think, if we're talking character types, citi.zen fits, and Southrawrea does not.
ModeratorEffOrt, Snow, GuMiho, and Team Liquid
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
July 24 2010 22:55 GMT
#2044
well I dont think Tricode could have seen what has transpired (2 hatter claim) so it would've been a HUGE gambit at the time to claim vig when no one has claimed

btw chaoser its not a double lynch today is it...so my vote from xelin should be erased?
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
July 24 2010 22:55 GMT
#2045
tree.hugger sold me

##vote citi.zen
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
July 24 2010 22:55 GMT
#2046
On July 25 2010 07:54 tree.hugger wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2010 07:29 youngminii wrote:
This is ridiculous, I can't believe this many people are actually voting for citi.zen. Let me say it one more time.

There is more information to be gained if SouthRawr is lynched than if citi.zen is lynched. Also, you are a mafia noob, not just a mafia, not just a noob.

I think we gain plenty of information about this, seeing as how we have a 50% chance at catching mafia, and this is a split vote. Role list analyzing is going to be cake after today.

I call upon every player in this game to vote for either citi.zen or South. One of them is confirmed mafia. There is no hiding under this "I think they're all innocent" nonsense. Pick one.

But more importantly, pick citi.zen.

There are four possible outcomes:
If we lynch citi.zen the Mafia: Then it's the coup de grâce. We've taken out their best player, and we have two confirmed town members to form a circle around.

If we lynch citi.zen the Mad Hatter: Then we still have an intact town circle with a DT and a person who was checked. Also, citi.zen's bombs go off, and two people die. It's not unreasonable to assume that citi.zen, being an experienced mafia player and scum-hunter will have caught at least one mafia in his net. I'd trust his bomb placement, providing he has them.

If we lynch Southrawrea the Mafia: Then we've taken out the newest, or one of the newest members of the mafia team. That's about it.

If we lynch Southrawrea the Mad Hatter: Then chaoser dies—another player who is newer, and not really driving any buses. I know youngminii thinks he's mafia, but I think that's just silly. Decide for yourself, but I'd trust citi.zen's judgment in bomb placing over Southrawrea.

***

I think out of these four options, assuming for a moment that the probability of either being mafia is 50/50, then the obvious better outcomes will come from lynching citi.zen. I hardly think there's anything to recommend Southrawrea as a natural mafia, or even a natural mafia selection to go out and try to sabotage this plan. On the flip side, pretty much the only player on TL who I would expect to pull something as crazy as a MH/town circle claim as mafia is citi.zen. I think, if we're talking character types, citi.zen fits, and Southrawrea does not.

I'm going to
## vote citi.zen
because it gives us the most info but let's not forget that tricode / bc could be in cahoots. That does seem... kinda outlandish but BC could be one to pull something like that off.
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
July 24 2010 22:56 GMT
#2047
@tree.hugger Except for the fact that we can go back and analyse all these posts if Southrawr dies. I'm already drawing links (publicly) to Southrawr and you're just blanketing the case on Southrawr. I don't know why you're doing this but okay. Say I'm silly and argue your case, I honestly don't know what's goign through your mind.
lalala
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
July 24 2010 22:57 GMT
#2048
On July 25 2010 07:48 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2010 07:40 SiNiquity wrote:
I bet Tricode and BC are cackling maniacally at their good fortune. Kill a medic, claim 3rd hit + protection (both unverifiable), draw out the other 2 KP roles. Let them kill each other. Bonus is that they're both hatters instead of vigilantes.

So much for 50/50.


You bring up a very good point here, and I think everyone should read it. It is still possible that Tricode is the liar, and there are 2 Mad Hatters in the game.


Very true. BC and Tricode taking advantage seems extremely likely, wish soutrawerea claimed sooner. Chaoser dying does seem silly if south was just a little late on the uptake and a really new player thrust into our world all of a sudden.

Killing tricode seems less of a risk then killing a bomber if hes just a vig now, but if hes scum, we can point right at BC for the next red, as they would have had to work this out together to figure this out. I dont wanna force the medic out, but now that three KPs are on the table, it might help if he claimed to someone.

I still find it extremely silly for citizen to be red as he wouldnt benefit much from just killing a KP role and he would die eventually.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
July 24 2010 22:57 GMT
#2049
On July 25 2010 07:56 youngminii wrote:
@tree.hugger Except for the fact that we can go back and analyse all these posts if Southrawr dies. I'm already drawing links (publicly) to Southrawr and you're just blanketing the case on Southrawr. I don't know why you're doing this but okay. Say I'm silly and argue your case, I honestly don't know what's goign through your mind.


dude your defending a guy whos only post in hours was a FoS on me. HE has ignored how many posts? seriously whats going through your mind.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
July 24 2010 22:57 GMT
#2050
8*] SouthRawrea (BrownBear, Tricode, Divinek, Lakrismamma, citi.zen, bumatlarge, youngminii, zeks)
8] citi.zen (SouthRawrea, tree.hugger, Siniquity, amber[light], BC, Pandain, Chaoser, Pyrr)
1] ~OpZ~ (d3_crescentia)
1] Pyrrhuloxia (Misder)
1] Protactinium (LaXerCannon)
1] youngminii (tricode)
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
tree.hugger
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
July 24 2010 22:59 GMT
#2051
On July 25 2010 07:50 citi.zen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2010 07:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On July 25 2010 07:41 lakrismamma wrote:
On July 25 2010 07:24 BloodyC0bbler wrote:


see bolded part. He wasn't actually cleared with no counterclaim for a reason I listed earlier which was this

IF you were the mad hatter and you saw someone claim your role, You know instantly he's most likely red. You then wait a day, move your bomb to him get lynched following day (confirms both of you). Instead, he said "if no one claims im legit." He did however get a claim, regardless, his point was moot regardless.


Agaisn you are using the fact that people are looking up to you to present some solutions that are not evident at all.Not everybody would play like this I sure as hell wouldn't.

On July 25 2010 07:24 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I most likely wont trust citizen until he proves to be trustworthy. He is far too inactive at this point for the plan he proposed. He has legimate concerns raised against him, a counter claim, etc....
Where is he? Nowhere to be found, instead people who have been semi inactive all game have decided to vouch for him. It comes of as extremely suspicious.

Also, it has no matter where he placed his bombs. If he has them on reds or not. A dt circle is still confirmed, and as much as dead townies suck to have, they do lower the dt pool of checked targets finding reds faster. Anyone who flips red dies, then its a hunt for the gf. If you find three of one blue role, boom you found him, etc...



I find it weird that you can chose between two people, oneof them is mafia.
One you have already made a case against and told that he is most likely mafia. Still you vote on the other guy.

Was you play earlier a scam to get people to trust you because you found Southrawrea as mafia?


Simple, i based one persons scum level based on activity, and the person I am now voting for put out an option with holes and not only has not refuted them, has barely even touched the hatter claim. Instead he is rallying on "trust" to get him through without being here. What to you is more scummy? Someone proposing a make or break strategy with the idea of "trust me" while vanishing into the night, or someone who desperately wants to live.

As for hatter play, maybe you wouldn't play like that BUT I am giving a logical idea of what someone might do. Just because you wouldn't do it, nor consider it a viable option is odd as your assuming someone else is completely legit, or that people always play this game under a normal sense of "logic". Not considering it a viable option because you wouldn't do it as other players might.

You know offering South hasn't saved you, don't you? You just dug the hole deeper.

You realized you've essentially just claimed that out of the three Town KP roles that have been claimed, two of them are mafia?

You know that right? Where's the fourth claim? We need it now. Find the fourth claim.
ModeratorEffOrt, Snow, GuMiho, and Team Liquid
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
July 24 2010 22:59 GMT
#2052
On July 25 2010 07:57 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2010 07:56 youngminii wrote:
@tree.hugger Except for the fact that we can go back and analyse all these posts if Southrawr dies. I'm already drawing links (publicly) to Southrawr and you're just blanketing the case on Southrawr. I don't know why you're doing this but okay. Say I'm silly and argue your case, I honestly don't know what's goign through your mind.


dude your defending a guy whos only post in hours was a FoS on me. HE has ignored how many posts? seriously whats going through your mind.

Better than siding with a guy who's many posts in many hours are filled with logical inconsistencies.

How do we even know if citi.zen told the second DT party who his DT is?
lalala
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
July 24 2010 23:00 GMT
#2053
On July 25 2010 07:59 tree.hugger wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2010 07:50 citi.zen wrote:
On July 25 2010 07:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On July 25 2010 07:41 lakrismamma wrote:
On July 25 2010 07:24 BloodyC0bbler wrote:


see bolded part. He wasn't actually cleared with no counterclaim for a reason I listed earlier which was this

IF you were the mad hatter and you saw someone claim your role, You know instantly he's most likely red. You then wait a day, move your bomb to him get lynched following day (confirms both of you). Instead, he said "if no one claims im legit." He did however get a claim, regardless, his point was moot regardless.


Agaisn you are using the fact that people are looking up to you to present some solutions that are not evident at all.Not everybody would play like this I sure as hell wouldn't.

On July 25 2010 07:24 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I most likely wont trust citizen until he proves to be trustworthy. He is far too inactive at this point for the plan he proposed. He has legimate concerns raised against him, a counter claim, etc....
Where is he? Nowhere to be found, instead people who have been semi inactive all game have decided to vouch for him. It comes of as extremely suspicious.

Also, it has no matter where he placed his bombs. If he has them on reds or not. A dt circle is still confirmed, and as much as dead townies suck to have, they do lower the dt pool of checked targets finding reds faster. Anyone who flips red dies, then its a hunt for the gf. If you find three of one blue role, boom you found him, etc...



I find it weird that you can chose between two people, oneof them is mafia.
One you have already made a case against and told that he is most likely mafia. Still you vote on the other guy.

Was you play earlier a scam to get people to trust you because you found Southrawrea as mafia?


Simple, i based one persons scum level based on activity, and the person I am now voting for put out an option with holes and not only has not refuted them, has barely even touched the hatter claim. Instead he is rallying on "trust" to get him through without being here. What to you is more scummy? Someone proposing a make or break strategy with the idea of "trust me" while vanishing into the night, or someone who desperately wants to live.

As for hatter play, maybe you wouldn't play like that BUT I am giving a logical idea of what someone might do. Just because you wouldn't do it, nor consider it a viable option is odd as your assuming someone else is completely legit, or that people always play this game under a normal sense of "logic". Not considering it a viable option because you wouldn't do it as other players might.

You know offering South hasn't saved you, don't you? You just dug the hole deeper.

You realized you've essentially just claimed that out of the three Town KP roles that have been claimed, two of them are mafia?

You know that right? Where's the fourth claim? We need it now. Find the fourth claim.

How does this post correlate in any way to the post you just quoted?
lalala
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
July 24 2010 23:00 GMT
#2054
On July 25 2010 07:57 bumatlarge wrote:
I still find it extremely silly for citizen to be red as he wouldnt benefit much from just killing a KP role and he would die eventually.


It's not silly if he is Suicide Bomber and in the rush of his claim, blues claimed to him. Then when the real one comes forward, hopefully the real one gets lynched, bombs go off, lots of people die. Now he gets to laugh and blow himself up with a few blues.
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
youngminii
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Australia7514 Posts
July 24 2010 23:01 GMT
#2055
On July 25 2010 08:00 chaoser wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2010 07:57 bumatlarge wrote:
I still find it extremely silly for citizen to be red as he wouldnt benefit much from just killing a KP role and he would die eventually.


It's not silly if he is Suicide Bomber and in the rush of his claim, blues claimed to him. Then when the real one comes forward, hopefully the real one gets lynched, bombs go off, lots of people die. Now he gets to laugh and blow himself up with a few blues.

Yeah let's all just go find the smallest, tiniest possibilities and argue from that point of view.
lalala
Protactinium
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada550 Posts
July 24 2010 23:01 GMT
#2056
It's been too hard to keep up today for the little amount of time I have. tree.hugger I think has said it best.

##Vote citi.zen

I never stopped to think about how BloodyC0bbler and Tricode could be orchestrating this though. Definitely need to watch for them tomorrow, since with two hours left it's hard to get anything solid.

Time to go continue making dumplings; will hopefully be back around thirty minutes before deadline.
And so, we find the Sublime.
BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7876 Posts
July 24 2010 23:02 GMT
#2057
On July 25 2010 07:59 youngminii wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2010 07:57 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
On July 25 2010 07:56 youngminii wrote:
@tree.hugger Except for the fact that we can go back and analyse all these posts if Southrawr dies. I'm already drawing links (publicly) to Southrawr and you're just blanketing the case on Southrawr. I don't know why you're doing this but okay. Say I'm silly and argue your case, I honestly don't know what's goign through your mind.


dude your defending a guy whos only post in hours was a FoS on me. HE has ignored how many posts? seriously whats going through your mind.

Better than siding with a guy who's many posts in many hours are filled with logical inconsistencies.

How do we even know if citi.zen told the second DT party who his DT is?


... citizen if in the dt circle he claimed, wher ehe claimed he told the dt who to check day 2, has a confirmed townie (or he would have offered a red in his original plan). That townie can be the link that citizen wanted to be if citizen flips hatter as his circle just got instantly proven legit. Then the real dt could claim to that link, voila. Mafia faking the claim would get checked and off'd.

How are you missing the obvious here? You speak about logical inconsistencies but are ignoring citizens, as well as your own.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
SiNiquity
Profile Joined April 2010
United States734 Posts
July 24 2010 23:02 GMT
#2058
On July 25 2010 07:50 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2010 07:48 BrownBear wrote:
On July 25 2010 07:40 SiNiquity wrote:
I bet Tricode and BC are cackling maniacally at their good fortune. Kill a medic, claim 3rd hit + protection (both unverifiable), draw out the other 2 KP roles. Let them kill each other. Bonus is that they're both hatters instead of vigilantes.

So much for 50/50.


You bring up a very good point here, and I think everyone should read it. It is still possible that Tricode is the liar, and there are 2 Mad Hatters in the game.


I would think Tricode's story is the most believable.

Same, which is why I'm not voting for him. Had citi.zen said nothing, we would likely be lynching Tricode today to verify his claim (better safe than sorry, etc). If Tricode is innocent, then why should citi.zen say anything... to get in the circles before a counter-claim? But why? Why not just let us lynch Tricode, confirm his vigi-ness and do all this mess next day? Unless he's afraid DT circles would connect before then?

This seems like a strong argument to me. Why would citi.zen come out now and not tomorrow, after we've lynched Tricode (and likely gained nothing)? What does Mafia have to gain from a ploy like this?

## Unvote citi.zen
## Vote Southrawrea

Citi.zen if you're Mafia, props for fucking with my head.
'i' before 'e' except after 'c' ~ it's scientifically proven.
SiNiquity
Profile Joined April 2010
United States734 Posts
July 24 2010 23:03 GMT
#2059
Well fuck. I'm supposed to be going to a wedding, let me catch up real quick and see if tree changes my mind.
'i' before 'e' except after 'c' ~ it's scientifically proven.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
July 24 2010 23:04 GMT
#2060
On July 25 2010 08:01 youngminii wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 25 2010 08:00 chaoser wrote:
On July 25 2010 07:57 bumatlarge wrote:
I still find it extremely silly for citizen to be red as he wouldnt benefit much from just killing a KP role and he would die eventually.


It's not silly if he is Suicide Bomber and in the rush of his claim, blues claimed to him. Then when the real one comes forward, hopefully the real one gets lynched, bombs go off, lots of people die. Now he gets to laugh and blow himself up with a few blues.

Yeah let's all just go find the smallest, tiniest possibilities and argue from that point of view.


It's not small if you consider the fact that the mafia would most likely send their Suicide Bomber forward to claim other than some random because he can blow people up after he gets the votes to go his way which is simple with your mafia crew voting with you?
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