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Just to throw this out there. If Bill Murray really is the jailkeeper (I think there's a decent chance he is the vet or a townie, only BM/youngminii know this for sure), then I'd put Hesmyrr in the 90% likely to be town list. It's unlikely in any case that Hesmyrr was the night 0 recruit.
First note that L's plan was a pro-mafia plan. He would have done this regardless if he were just the traitor or the n0 goon recruit. However, note that citi.zen is known as a strong and experienced player. I find it unlikely that upon seeing L present his plan that he would have chosen to recruit L. Even if L is town and not traitor, let him wallow in his flawed logic (which obviously it ended up as not) and help the mafia anyway. Sure, it's possible L was recruited later, I just think it's unlikely.
This means that if BM really is jailkeep and jailed Hesmyrr night 1 and 2, Hesmyrr is clear.
Also, DCLXVI is clear as has been stated both by myself and him. DCLXVI was marked innocent by Ace upon his death. Ace roleblocked DCLXVI on night 2, so DCLXVI was not the n0, n1, or n2 recruit. citi.zen was lynched on d3, so DCLXVI is town.
Also, Hesmyrr, double lynch does not work the way I think you think it works. Passing double lynch (which means majority votes for it) means that the next day we get two votes that we must put on different people. Double lynch does not benefit us unless youngminii dies. Each day we're going to get a new confirmed townie, have a confirmed townie hit, and lynch another unconfirmed townie. This will result in a swift victory for the town since we have 4 confirmed townies. If the scum hit youngminii, he will give us his final DT result in his death, so we will still have 4 confirmed. We'd then pass a double lynch to take the victory in the following two days lynching 5 unconfirmed people and having two confirmed hit by mafia over the 3 days also resulting in a victory. If we use a double lynch now, we can fall just short of victory if mafia gets really lucky.
Assuming we have a jailkeeper at all, by the numbers, the game is currently sealed (just barely) since we have another mason to claim excepting the danger of the mad hatter blowing up any of our confirmed townies. We are not in a rush to lynch people via double lynch. We want to ensure the mad hatter keeps the bombs on people who are unconfirmed. Also of note, if we assume L was the n0 recruit, by the numbers (which youngminii and BM only know), we have the game sealed +1 if BM is the jailkeeper since this also clears Hesmyrr. However, we should continue to play the game as safely as possible to secure the town victory. A mad hatter can mess things up if we're not careful.
Now, lets get focused on the people who are likely to be scum and hang them (one at a time).
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On July 12 2010 02:15 Hesmyrr wrote:
Of course this plan only works if Bill Murray is indeed jailkeeper; Bill Murray, having confirmed as Town, you can swear that you are not fake-claiming jailkeeper correct?
YellowInk, with double lynch we can outpace mafia kill and prevent mafia from somehow overcoming current situation later on. I think it would be highly beneficial for us to vote for double lynch today so we can use it tomorrow. Can you specifically explain a scenario where my plan fails (minus youngminii not being DT) so you can justify your opinion not to use double lynch? Sure. We lynch rastaban, who for whatever reason never trusted youngminii/BM despite it being our best route for victory. He had his bombs on youngminii and BM who then immediately die. Town can definitely lose from this kind of position.
This is an extreme example, but there are other similar examples that can be made. This is also not a commentary on rastaban's choices or thoughts, just giving an example of someone who might get lynched since the town can't seem to settle on someone to hang.
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For the record, I'm not convinced we hung the godfather. I can't imagine a game filled with this many strong players continues to fail to see so many things that are obvious. Unfortunately we were not given the tools to counter a straightforward mafia play, so we must simply stay true to the most likely path to victory.
As I've presented numerous significant arguments and the town seems intent on lynching me (Hesmyrr, youngminii, zeks) without expressing any cause, I'm going to try just being quiet for the next 9 hours and see if you guys can just come to a reasonable conclusion on your own. I'll answer any questions asked directly of me, but beyond that, this inaction is maddening and I want no more part of pushing this boulder up a mountain.
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Well since it's apparent that people are set on my lynch, I'll give my final thoughts before I hang. I have no death post - I am townie, I have no secret info.
On July 12 2010 03:46 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2010 02:43 YellowInk wrote:
For the record, I'm not convinced we hung the godfather. I can't imagine a game filled with this many strong players continues to fail to see so many things that are obvious. Unfortunately we were not given the tools to counter a straightforward mafia play, so we must simply stay true to the most likely path to victory.
As I've presented numerous significant arguments and the town seems intent on lynching me (Hesmyrr, youngminii, zeks) without expressing any cause, I'm going to try just being quiet for the next 9 hours and see if you guys can just come to a reasonable conclusion on your own. I'll answer any questions asked directly of me, but beyond that, this inaction is maddening and I want no more part of pushing this boulder up a mountain. If your not convinced that we killed the godfather then chances are as of tonight, town has lost. I say that because it would mean the GF would have had time to a) recruit our jail keeper and b) as of tonight recruit the dt (provided neither were red already) giving the mafia the ability to fake clear/convict people while still growing. At this stage of the game, based on current town beliefs, a surviving GF means GG. We cannot afford to think like this. Preaching to the choir. Just pointing out that everything that BM has been doing has been pro-mafia, but since we're in a state that we have to assume he's town due to lack of tools provided to us, the situation is retarded.
Suprising that you should choose to vote for me on this when I've been saying - and even clearly set out the above situation for the town - precisely what you're posing here. You don't vote for all the other people who say, "What if GF?? You just choose to jump on me when I'm pointing out the actual endgame situation.
Here's a good target for you, youngminii. Assuming my words are even worth anything to you.
On July 12 2010 03:49 Bill Murray wrote:
i wasnt recruited, so... :p
this is assuming that i wasnt jailed in relation to being recruited, and that on n1, n2, or whatever nights he has been recruiting, that he wasnt roleblocked and his target wasnt jailed.
you are not taking every variable into consideration here It would probably help everyone if we knew who you were talking to or what you were talking about. You do this frequently. Fix it.
On July 12 2010 05:32 zeks wrote:
Theres no point in wasting a DT check one of us thats just wasting our limited DT checks.
In fact I think I'm just as confirmed as BM/Hesmyrr if not more.
The 2nd mason will unlock the message with the key I've given him. If that doesn't satisfy all of you we can do it any way you want.
Issue of whether there are masons or not:
Would mafia bet on there be no masons this game and claim early on to gain "permanent" immunity? That's retarded.
You are more confirmed than Hesmyrr, but less so than Bill Murray/youngminii. There is the chance that there are no masons. You and your goon buddy could be hiding under cover of being masons and the game has no masons. I find this unlikely, but it is a possibility. Considering we were only given one roleblocker, I'm willing to accept pretty much anything in this setup now. I already outlined why you could have opened the game with your strategy as a goon. However, by day 4, if there are any masons, you are it.
On July 12 2010 05:54 zeks wrote:
the justification behind him not claiming:
if the gf is alive it makes him harder to recruit (can't recruit masons unless roleblocked) so gf waste recruiting power
if the gf isn't alive then in the case the discussion is steered the wrong direction and he's about to be lynched he will claim
if the case my mason partner dies before me i'll unlock the code myself which will decipher my partners name - whether you guys believe me would be up to your discretion but what incentive would i have to lie Posts like this make me wonder why I post. Half the town apparently doesn't read the thread anyway. I'm tired of preaching 'stop being inactive' game after game.
Good luck, town!
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Mafia got incredibly unlucky here. If the GF can stay under the radar till day 5 or so, it's practically unwinnable for town with the number of blues we had. This is why I was convinced we had at least two roleblockers - how can you honestly expect the GF to be found by the midgame? You need some way to draw the game out and have a reasonable chance for a town win without finding the GF in the early game. This kind of setup is just really swingy.
Since mafia hadn't conceded and BM being ridiculous, when I was lynched I was convinced youngminii was mafia. I figured we were looking at a mafia victory. With all the lying that was going on in the town, I don't see how we could have won without the streak of luck even if it were a level game.
Since most of you wouldn't tell me in thread, I'm curious what convinced you guys I was mafia?
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So it seems like almost everyone voted for me because everyone else voted for me. A true bandwagon. I wasn't too worried about it in game because short of catastrophe, I knew town would win unless youngminii was scum - in which case we had already lost. It is fair to say that I was among the unconfirmed and I along with the 4 or so others needed to either be killed or investigated, so whatever works.
All of you who are reading this should be looking at each other and seeing how it clearly was a bandwagon - there was no clear reasoning, most were voting because they had nowhere better to go. Think about this each time you hang someone and you may save a pro-town player in a future game.
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On July 15 2010 02:53 youngminii wrote:
I completely agree that it was a bandwagon and that it was started by me. I also agree that it is very bad play and shouldn't happen, even if town has pretty much won already. Well sometimes it just happens. It can be hard to tell when it's a bandwagon, a railroading, or what. I did keep asking for reasons and I kept not getting them (for the most part), so that should've made it pretty blatant in thread.
This all being said, some people are really hard to figure if they're scum. The point is just that it should be a hanging from a culmination of active discussion, not apathetic lets hang whomever - ok I'll go along with that guy. Maybe I was the best hang because of some little thing I did in the early game. But it should be because of that (and reasonably clearly so), not because 'everybody's doing it'.
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On July 15 2010 06:46 Hesmyrr wrote:
Well, I mean it was really obvious it was bandwagon. I just didn't care :p ##vote Hesmyrr
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EPT
