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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Our DT's checking the same person is a great idea, but the thing we have to remember is that we need to lynch whomever they check in order to start establishing sanity. I think we should figure out who we want to lynch tomorrow, and investigate them tonight.
If one of our dt's checks come back red... do we act? How likely is he paranoid? How likely is he's really mafia and just pretending to be paranoid?
We act the exact same way as if it came back green, we lynch them.
I think that the medic should protect Meeple tonight, and that Meeple should watch tree.hugger. That should protect our watcher and tracker, and if the mafia decides to go after one of the dt's then at least it clears up some of the confusion for the town. If the mafia goes after me as per usual, that's great because it buys the town more time. Anyone who has claimed green should NOT be getting protection.
Of course there is a good chance that some of our blue claimers are vets/hatters, but we can let the mafia stew over that.
Targets for tonights investigations and the day 2 lynch:
Scummy in my eyes
~opz~
AFJ
citi.zen
Not active enough
Redtooth
Foolishness
I think we should be looking at targets who claimed near the end of the roleclaim. Mafia were likely trying to see whether we had a glut of green claims or blue claims, and where it would be easiest to hide.
9 flamewheel
10 Vivi57
11 redtooth
12 citi.zen
13 ~OpZ~
14 MooCow
15 Foolishness
16 meeple
Chezinu
Moocow and meeple get a pass from any lynchs for the moment, as they will probably start dying anyways, and if they survive we can deal with them then.
Discounting Chez as a crazy person, that makes the last five green to claim Vivi, redtooth, citi.zen, Opz and foolishness
Thoughts?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 12 2010 19:52 LuDwig- wrote:
I suppose we should start with not active enough people...
they are not usefull to town both as towny or scum..
Agreed, although it's still early in the game and everyone has contributed at least some. The more I think about it the more it seems like we should just check/lynch whoever seems most scummy.
I'd like to hear other peoples opinions on who to lynch though.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 12 2010 22:45 citi.zen wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2010 20:19 Radfield wrote:On June 12 2010 19:52 LuDwig- wrote:
I suppose we should start with not active enough people...
they are not usefull to town both as towny or scum.. Agreed, although it's still early in the game and everyone has contributed at least some. The more I think about it the more it seems like we should just check/lynch whoever seems most scummy. I'd like to hear other peoples opinions on who to lynch though. My opinion is that, rather than speculating endlessly on who is more or less "active" (ie - posting nonsense) we should wait for the night actions to come in.
The reason we should discuss this now, is because we need to decide on a day 2 lynch candidate during night one. The best way to begin to establish sanity is to lynch whomever the dt's check. So while we could just leave it up to them to decide, I think it makes more sense to discuss it as a group and figure out who the best target is.
Your plan is to not bother having people post for the next 10 hours and just wait for the night to end?
I realize we don't have a lot of information to go on right now, but that's why we need to encourage people to post their thoughts. And we do have some info, we have the Day 1 votes, our role-claims, the order the role-claims came in, and everyone's (short) posting history. It's enough for some conjecture.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Likelihood of dying tonight: High 
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 13 2010 08:15 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Hey guys, just wanted to let you know I got role blocked last night. Guess the mafia thought I was blue. What this is means is that if no one else claims to have been role blocked last night, this is evidence for me being town-aligned, which means that we should be able to narrow down what kind of detective ludwig is. Of course, there is the possibility that if I was mafia, mafia could waste a role block on me to create this exact situation to prevent me from being lynched, but hey, I'm just saying what happened.
Hmm. You getting role blocked seems really random, I would have thought that it would be obvious for the mafia to role block our watcher; no downside. I'm interested to see the detectives and watcher's results .
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 13 2010 09:35 Korynne wrote:
Night ends in 30 minutes.
Night kinda ended like and hour and a half ago....
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 13 2010 09:42 MooCow wrote:
So in terms of waiting for blue information we only have to wait for LuDwig and meeple? I don't think anyone else rc'd a blue role other than the dead treehugger.
I already revealed my information on AFJ ( town ) aligned.
Correct
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 13 2010 11:26 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Also, reiterating, if anyone else wants to say they got role blocked, please do. If no one else speaks up you should be able to put some trust in that I was the one role blocked and therefore probably not mafia. If someone does speak up then it will be obvious that they are mafia if I get lynched and flip town.
You seem to have left out one obvious option. You are mafia, with the roleblocker on your team, possibly even the roleblocker. You know your back is up against the wall and that you're a prime lynch target for day 2, so you don't roleblock anyone to gain some credibility. This seems quite likely to me, as it makes absolutely no sense for the mafia to have roleblocked you. Smacks of desperation.
On June 13 2010 16:56 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Ok. 2 "detectives" checks have come back townie on me. I think this should convince most of you that I'm indeed townie so that we don't have to waste a lynch.
The possible scenarios right now are MooCow and ludwig are both detectives or 1 of MooCow, Ludwig are detective 1 are veteran. I didn't include the scenario where 1 or both are role claim faking because it doesn't seem likely that a mafioso would risk there being exactly 1 detective or exactly 1 veteran but not both (otherwise there'd be 3 role claimed detectives and clearly 1 would be lying). I also didn't include the other clearly improbable scenarios.
MooCow detective, Ludwig detective:
The only way I would turn out to be mafia is if both of them are either naiive or insane. This seems improbable.
1 detective, 1 veteran:
If I'm mafia, this would imply that we have one naiive or insane detective. We won't gain much from lynching me because if I flip townie that will only say that our detective is either naiive or sane. Furthermore, we won't know whether to trust ludwig or moocow's findings because we won't know which is the detective unless they both decide to reveal their roles. This undesirable situation is a result of L's rather myopic plan.
I hope this justifies going after other targets besides me today (hopefully going after someone that seems suspicious from their voting and posting behavior) since lynching me would provide minimal help and waste a townie and a lynch.
Again, I have to disagree with your analysis.
First off, we have a tracker, watcher, medic and two dt's, and a minimum of SIX days to find only 4 mafia in a 17 person game. That is insanely unbalanced for the town even if mafia have a godfather, roleblocker and dayvig. How do you balance that out? By putting in some nasty sanities for the DT's. You think it unlikely, but with a tracker and watcher around, I think it VERY likely that both are DT's have funky sanities. One being useless(naive) and one being insane sounds about right. Even assuming that some people are lying about their role, it still fits that we would have an insane DT.
Not to mention that I don't really trust Moocow at this point. No offense moocow, but a DT role is the perfect place for a mafia to hide, because you can never be held accountable "oops guys, I guess I'm naive".
It is very important that we lynch AFJ, because we really need to start narrowing down the sanities. The entire plan was to lynch AFJ regardless of what the alignment checks came back as. The fact is, AFJ STILL seems completely scummy to me and worthy of a lynching anyways. Not to mention that he's done a ton of posting, so if he flips red we can glean a lot of info from his posts.
That being said, we should still be doing post analysis on people. I went through the thread last night and a few people jumped out a me, but we can talk about them once AFJ is out of the way.
##Vote: AcrossFiveJulys (for effect)
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I have no idea why you are so deadset on lynching me. All that is going to happen is I flip green and you still won't have a clue about which of ludwig/moocow are detectives and/or their sanities (they could be naiive or insane). Think logically about what kind of information will be obtained and whether that is worth wasting a townie and a lynch.
If you flip green, it narrows down their sanities to naive or insane. This is much better than having no idea at all. Lets imagine both role checks had turned you up red, or one red and one green. Either way, each detective gets narrowed down to two possible sanities. There is no possible way to figure out a dt's sanity after only one check. I am trying to think logically, and surely you agree that this is the only way to start narrowing down their sanity.
We have a lot of time as town in this game, and no matter what you flip, we gain valuable information from lynching you.
Do I absolutely think 100% you're mafia? Not at all. But I'm suspicious of you, and it's definitely worth lynching you at this point to help establish Ludwig's and Moocow's sanity.
Suspicions:
-Poor arguments against L's plan, then poor arguments again to L's plan
-Lots of spam early on
-Your roleclaim post seems off, and is filled with trying to distance yourself from L's plan
-Lots of corrections to peoples posts and obvious statements, but no real suggestions.
-These two statements seemed bizarre at the time to me, and still do. They are back to back posts, and seem like a huge stretch to draw the conclusion that you did.
It seems safe to say that mafia spread themselves out in the non-RC'd / townie / blue list. So we probably have 2 mafia that role claimed townie, 1 that claimed blue, and 1 that has not role claimed.
Oh sorry, and off of that assumption we have a 50% chance to get a mafioso if we lynch one of the non-RC'd people (meeple or chezinu). Switching my vote to meeple.
-Wishy washy in your voting: You voted for meeple on very thin reasoning, talked about switching to Jspazz on a whim, and then finally switched over to redtooth on my rather shakey reasoning.
-You posted this lol guess I get to be the sacrificial townie. (suppose it would be in the interest of the town to lynch me no matter what I role check as if the town trusts ludwig)
and are now trying to do everything you can to avoid getting lynched
-The whole roleblocking thing, which seems completely made up to me.
-This post seems very fake to me
Shit looks like meeple didn't watch me last night unless he changed his mind after this post.
Some other minor stuff as well. The more I look through your posts the more likely it seems you are mafia.
These are a few of the reasons you strike me as mafia. Look on the bright side, if your town, we probably have a sane DT. Hooray! If you're mafia, you now know what to fix for next game. But the most important thing is, it's worth lynching you even if you are town because our dt's checked you last night.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 13 2010 23:29 LuDwig- wrote:
I think that we need to put some fixed point in the game. We really don't know nothing for sure. We only know that two people claimed DTs, that they told us they rolechecked and that AFJ is green.
Are they sane, insane, naive?
The only way to know it (or at least starting to make thnigs more clear)is lynch AFJ ..
I also thought on lynching MooCow...because i really don't believe him...If it turs out red it would be a great move..but if he is a DT for real? That would be a huge loss for the team that can make us loose the game.
We can lynch another people at random..but then..why simply don't lynch you?
I think lynching moocow right now is premature. If he's telling the truth then we hurt ourselves doubly: the loss of a town aligned player, and giving the mafia less blue targets to shoot at.
I realize that by focusing on AFJ today we're kind of giving the less active players a pass. But we can focus on them tomorrow.
I'd like to know the opinions on whom we should lynch from these people:
Vivi57
citi.zen
Foolishness
redtooth
RebirthOfLeGend
I'd like to hear everyone else's opinion as well, but these 5 are a bit on the inactive side.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2010 06:41 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2010 04:37 flamewheel wrote:
Why do I think we have a Hatter? At this point, I think it seems logical. I haven’t seen a standard game yet without some form of extraneous town KP, and the situation right now can boil down to Hatter or Veteran. Maybe there’s both and somebody claimed Townie? Entirely plausible. However, know that I requested Veteran before the game started—the plan was to cause a lot of ruckus to get the Mafia to try to slap me at night, though that request could not be entertained. So what does that mean? It means either somebody else more important got Veteran (though I don’t believe Incognito offered others a choice?) or that there are no Veterans due to balancing issue. The more I think about it, the less likely there is to be a Veteran. Mafia only have 1KP (plus a potential Day Vigi) so a Veteran is a huge deterrence, especially after the day comes about and actions are sorted out when the Veteran claims the hit.
WHOA WHOA WHOA! So you requested Veteran and got denied. That's great and all. Hey for any non vets out there, did you know that you could request roles before the game starts? I sure didn't. Hey Incognito, why didn't you PM me and ask me if I wanted a certain role? Show nested quote +On June 14 2010 04:37 flamewheel wrote:
It means either somebody else more important got Veteran
At this point, everyone is more important than you. "waa waaaa I'm upset I didn't get the role I wanted waaa". Nobody needs to hear your QQ about not getting a "good" role. And now your assumption that "oh well I didn't get that role somebody else must have gotten it because I'm special" now just makes you sound like a pompous player. Thanks for your contribution there, it really opened my eyes on the current town situation and I feel like I have a better understanding of what's going on. Oh, can you PLEEEEAAAASSSEEE ask more questions in your posts? I honestly enjoy when someone feigns contribution by writing a bunch of rhetorical questions/possibilities that have already been discussed in the thread.
I imagine that because flamewheel hosts so many games, he got a special bonus from a fellow host. Not a big deal.
More importantly, after being mostly inactive since midway through the first day, why are you focusing on this and not more pressing matters?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 14 2010 09:23 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:Vivi57 just ninja'd a vote: + Show Spoiler +
##vote AcrossFiveJulys
to help confirm sanities. I may or may not muster up enough energy to do a pbpa of citizen/foolishness/meeple/moocow later so this vote is also here incase I don't make it back in time.
People, if you are just looking at the last page of the thread, vote for me ONLY if you think I'm suspicious as mafia, NOT if you think it's going to reduce detective uncertainty. If I get lyched and flip green, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are naiive or sane. If I get lynched and flip red, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are insane or naiive. So guess what? This doesn't help much; either way they could still both (or the 1) be naiive. The only way to know for sure the detective(s) sanity after that will be if the detective happens to get back a red role check and you lynch them. Banking on that happening soon isn't smart. This is not a good plan for the town, people.
This is simply not a good argument. Yes, it takes minimum two nights to figure out a detective's sanity, we all realize that. Night one we narrow it down to two possibilities. If you flip red, then we know that the detectives are either insane or naive. Now we get them to check someone who they trust to be town-aligned: A green result means they're naive, a red result insane. Bingo, we have the alignments down. It takes two nights, but it's worth it. Our medic and watcher should be able to scare off the mafia from taking down the blue roles(tree.hugger  ) so we'll probably still have everyone on board by that time.
Or, we don't lynch you, learn nothing about the sanities, and basically disregard our two detective roles as useless.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Wow wow wow. Either an amazing shot Citizen, or you're mafia and hoping to get all our roleclaims and allay all suspicion.
An extremely ballsy move actually, considering that if L flipped green, then we would certianly use the next lynch on you. Doubly hurting the town.
I'm still very ok with lynching AFJ, but if people don't agree I'm fine with that.
List of fairly inactive players:
vivi57
redtooth
RoL
Ohn
I say we go after RoL first. He strikes me as moderately scummy, and is the scummiest looking player who voted for Jspazz.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 15 2010 04:29 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2010 04:24 citi.zen wrote:On June 15 2010 01:48 Radfield wrote:
Wow wow wow. Either an amazing shot Citizen, or you're mafia and hoping to get all our roleclaims and allay all suspicion.
An extremely ballsy move actually, considering that if L flipped green, then we would certianly use the next lynch on you. Doubly hurting the town.
I'm still very ok with lynching AFJ, but if people don't agree I'm fine with that.
List of fairly inactive players:
vivi57
redtooth
RoL
Ohn
I say we go after RoL first. He strikes me as moderately scummy, and is the scummiest looking player who voted for Jspazz. And to this... what % would you assign to the likelihood of me being mafia? Why would it make sense for me to kill the GF right now instead of a goon if I wanted credibility? Furthermore, there was no immediate danger of being lynched for either me or L, why not save the hit for later when it could be decisive /end the game? You know I of all people love a good conspiracy theory, but give me a break - this one makes no sense. I've been thinking about the Dvig all game. It is like the perfect role! Once you use the hit, it makes no sense for either mafia or town to kill the Dvig no matter what align the Dvig has. Dvig is still a black role, right? If you look at the OP the mafia count only includes roleblock and/or GF. This means if there was a mafia Dvig then he wouldn't be considered part of the "mafia" and would only want the mafia to win.. So I'm watching you citizen though I would never kill you... lol.. not that I'm a watcher or anything... <.< >.>
I'm pretty sure you're reading it wrong chez. The dayvig role is black so that we don't know if the dayvig ended up being town or mafia aligned. It's not 12T v 4M v 1DV. It's 13 town vs 4 mafia no matter what. And someone, whether town or mafia, got the dayvig role
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
"You are aligned with either the town or the mafia, and can be secure with the fact that your shot cannot be blocked by either medics or roleblockers"
The Dvig is either town or mafia. Not his own alignment.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 15 2010 04:57 Chezinu wrote:
Rad where did you go? I want to continue to fake argue with you.. Who is going to argue if L isn't here?
I'm having trouble telling if you actually believe that about the dayvig...
I was skimming through all L's posts if you must know. I'm obviously not as good as citizen though because all i really found is L arguing with foolishness rather plausibly and redtooth rather weakly.
I'm going to read through them again when i'm a little more into it though.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
It just wasn't much of an argument:
my only qualm with L's plan is that the structure of the game is forum based. that means posts come in linearly, one at a time and uneditable. what happens when there is only one medic and he roleclaims? mafia gets an easy kill in the first round with our most valuable player. if you think about it, the likelihood of 2 medics being in this game is VERY low since it would essentially be GG once they figure each other out (mafia just can't do shit). even with a roleblocker, i doubt that Incognito would create such a town-favored setup.
This was the only thing redtooth posted that related to L's plan.
All L responded with was
On June 10 2010 13:35 L wrote: Well, maybe try reading the plan before posting.
L aslo argued with both AFJ and yourself as well. Makes me think AFJ is probably not mafia. I hate it when that happens.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I agree 100% with foolishness. By having our dt's check the same person, and then subsequently killing that person, we should be able to get very close to figuring out the sanities. I also think that the results should not be made public, and should be pm'ed to two people before having the results released.
My absence is due to exceeding our bandwidth limit and basically getting cut off for 24 hrs. Our speed drops to almost zero, and sometimes doesn't work at all.
These are our remaining players
Claimed Blue
Meeple
Ludwig
Moocow
Not very suspicious at the moment
Foolishness
Citizen
AcrossFiveJulys
Mildly Suspicious
Chezinu
Flamewheel
Redtooth
People can slot me in wherever they think I belong. Personally I find moocow to be more suspicious then ludwig, but I think it possible that both are legit dt's. Very likely one is naive if that's the case. It's still premature to start offing the blues though.
Despite the fact we have 2 mafia down, losing 3 greens today seriously hurts us. Day 5 is lynch or lose at this point, assuming no medic saves or vets.
Personally I find redtooth the most suspicious of those three, Chez second, Flamewheel third.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 15 2010 16:29 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Sorry guys. Had a meeting with my union rep today in savannah. Getting my job back. Will post some tomorrow morning. Had to celebrate lol...dressed way too nice for the bars lol..
Anyway, sorry guys. Didn't expect this to take as much time as it did.
This guy is definitely mafia, lets lynch him 
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