TL Mafia XXVII
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On June 04 2010 06:59 flamewheel wrote:
I just realized there was a Day Vigi :3
maybe... not necessarily... But I lets hope so. It's just so entertaining.
I really hope I get Veteran, I promise to get some use out of it. Probably Night 1.... : )
On June 04 2010 12:28 Korynne wrote:
Lol except he was medic in Bang Bang. xD Was he allowed to protect himself? If not that post about like aww I'm probably going to die was probably like a plea for another medic to save him. =P
I was just trying to get the mafia to stay away by having them think I would get protected. Worked real well...
Also, It's not possible to give a dayvig role to someone with a grudge against me. I don't live long enough to form grudges
On June 04 2010 20:46 Korynne wrote:
Dude not gunna lie, I killed Radfield first night as mafia.
Oh I know it
On June 05 2010 03:00 LunarDestiny wrote:
Sorry I am trolling this thread again.
I want to ask is Radfield THAT good of a player that he is always the #1 target for the mafia. I search a little in the forum, but can't seem to find a game with his late game plays.
What's late game??
I've played a grand total of 5 mafia games, and been killed on the first night 3 times. Why? Because I'm very active, and I like to think I make decently sound arguments. I'm also NOT a vet, and so am not a particularly strong candidate for medic protection. I'm hoping that may change....
I should have my own flow chart on how to tell if I'm mafia: Are there mafia in the game? Yes. ------> Did he die night one? No. -----> Mafia/SK
Or is an invitation still required?
With 4 mafia vs 13 town aligned, and given that the mafia might have both a roleblocker and godfather, I would guess that we have a decent number of blue roles in the game. My guess at the moment would be at least 5 blue roles, plus possibly a town aligned day vig?
I'm thinking 1 cop, 1 medic, 1 watcher/tracker, 1 vet and 1 vig/mad hatter. Also likely 1 Miller and the Day Vig. That leaves 6 townies(7 with the miller).
Does this seems likely to other people? Thoughts?
On June 10 2010 08:14 Vivi57 wrote:
This should be fun.
Also, is lynching an inactive really best? We've done that since forever and people are so used to the strategy that I don't think it'll give us as much in the way of vote lists and voting patterns to analyze.
I say that we make everyone talk then analyze behavior and if someone appears scummy, we shouldn't insta go for the inactive.
I think I agree with this. Usually I'm a champion of inactive lynching, but theoretically in this set up there should not be anyone blatantly inactive. I mean, the invites were sent out solely based on activity. If we're having a problem with activity, by all means, but for now lets try to analyze.
Face the facts, mafia who try to coast by are lame, mafia who play hardcore are sweet. Like Incognito in Mafia XXII; that was well done.
My guess would be that mafia will roleclaim as 3 townies and 1 blue role, the blue role will likely be claimed near the end. I doubt we have doubles of any role, as there is simply no need with this amount of players, and the number of potential open roles. So any blue-claiming right off the bat is very very risky.
Ludwig, PMing our roles to L is a bad bad idea. PMing our roles to anyone at this point is not smart, simply because there is no way to make a really solid case for someone being pro-town. The downside of picking the wrong person is basically a loss for the town. If we should be PMing anyone, it should be you, as I pretty much take your claim at face value at this point. However, I think public roleclaiming is the best way to go for the moment.
With that being said, I am a Townie and my job is to get shot on the first night. If we have a watcher, I recommend you have a look at me tonight as I have a decent streak going. Of course, it probably makes more sense to watch one of the blue claimers to try and find the roleblocker.
Medic should be protecting tree.hugger or Ludwig at this point, with emphasis on tree.hugger.
On June 11 2010 02:03 tree.hugger wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2010 01:53 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'm not sure. Usually I agree with the inactive lynch and more discussion, but as Radfield said, inactivity should not be a problem this game. Role claiming usually comes as a last resort? Why would we push for roleclaiming THIS early. It's pretty ridiculous if you ask me.
I'd guess the mafia are planning privately right now. So they probably aren't posting too much. If we're serious about this role claiming, we're giving them a lot to decide. Who claims what, risk/reward type shit.
But since we've had a dt claim we can use him to our advantage. So we must get his sanity established...Do we have him check somebody, and then lynch the person the next day? Just check and hope mafia kills the person? Maybe he's paranoid? Lots of problems come up from this.
I dunno what the best course of action is, I'm not usually that good at coming up with plans for the town.
Posts like this, which don't help, say a couple really obvious generic things, and which address what the mafia 'might be doing' while the poster does the opposite...
I had the same feeling tree.hugger, but I think it's more benificial to let things like this slide in the moment and try to build a case after more posts. No need to point out to potential mafia that they're not doing a good job.
@AcrossFiveJulys Here's the way I see it going down if everyone roleclaims. We have a pretty good idea of how many blue roles there are, so an overabundance of blue or green will tip us off one way or another. In addition, any mafia claiming blue is making a risky decision, because any blue role that doubles up will be investigated/killed/whatever. At the very least attention will be placed on the two claimers. It seems likely that most of the people who claim blue will actually BE blue. Therefore, we can narrow down our list of suspects to the green claimers. Thoughts? It's not perfect, but considering that we already have 2 blue and 3 green claimed, I think it's our best bet.
On June 11 2010 06:58 Korynne wrote:
*sigh* Another blue post signifying a mod ignoring a specific command only usable by selected people.
yeah, sorry about that, just trying to have some fun
On June 11 2010 10:40 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
We have decided there is probably around 4-5 greens
Look at the game numbers. 17 players. 13 town. 4 mafia. 7 blue roles. We're likely to have 4-7 blues max, giving us at the worst 6 greens. The game is 1 kp with 17 players in play. Every correct lynch we have buys us a day. Every medic prot buys us a day. We have potential 3 information roles. With 2 players down a day and a minimum of 8 people alive if we chain-mishit, we have 9 deaths until we're in near death situation. That means we can screw up every single day until day 5 and still win. Given that, I'd be very shocked to see us packing 8-9 blues as per your estimate.
I failed to realize how a mafia KP of 1 gives us so much time. On that note it seems quite unlikely for the town to have 6 or 7 blue roles, as we would be seriously overpowered, even if mafia had a roleblocker/godfather/dayvig. I would think we have a medic out there, and probably one of vig/vet/hatter, but that might be it.
During the night we need to pick someone for ludwig to check, and then lynch that person on day 2 to figure out his sanity. I have a few ideas in mind, but we don't need to start talking about that just yet necessarily. In fact, it might make more sense to PM our suggestions to tree.hugger and Ludwig, and let them make the final call together, as they are both highly likely to be town aligned. The reason to keep it private would be so the mafia can't snipe that player first and delay us finding out Ludwig's sanity.
Since we have about twelve hours, I'm putting forward some lynch suspects:
Johnnyspazz: Four posts in the thread, all of them one liners.
AcrossFiveJulys: Made some bad arguments against roleclaiming, moderate amount of spamming. This was his roleclaim:
I agree that at this point we are committed to this potentially shitty plan because our "tracker" and "detective" have RC'd. I don't mind role claiming townie for myself, at least. If anyone can think of a good way to put the brakes on the plan even though a couple "blues" have RC'd then please post how to do so, otherwise let's go forward with the plan even though it sucks because it's worse to just give the mafia a few blues and then stop.
Something about this roleclaim seemed off to me, but I can't really put my finger on it.
Both of these are good lynch targets in my eyes, but FIRST AND FOREMOST, any non roleclaimers need to be looked at in my opinion. We need information on the table, and people who don't claim are hindering the town at this point.
Right now I think we should be looking at AFJ and Jspazz as potential targets for ludwig's sanity check. Theoretically neither of you should be particularly opposed to sacrificing for the town if you're town aligned . Do people Agree? Disagree? Thoughts?
On June 10 2010 07:51 redtooth wrote:
i vote meeple
On June 11 2010 15:15 citi.zen wrote:
## vote ohn
On June 11 2010 15:59 Chezinu wrote:
## vote Radfield
aka abstaining for now.. because no one else would dare vote for him, right?
On June 11 2010 19:36 Vivi57 wrote:
On June 11 2010 23:32 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
The plan isn't that bad. I could be confusing Jspazz with someone else, I just can't think of who it is right now.
Abenson? It seems like he has a pretty bad reputation in mafia.
4 left to claim:
For the record I don't think we should lynch Jspazz today. He's probably town. I think we should use him as our sanity test for ludwig. Investigate him tonight, lynch him Day 2.
At this point, I think one of these four should be our target for now. We have about 9 hours until day ends.
It appears as though inactivity may be a little bit of a problem after all. Anyone still flying under the radar should be looked in to.
I strongly disagree with lynching Jspazz right now, I still think we should use him as our sanity check.
Just posting this for reference:
Votes for ohN (2)
Votes for Radfield (1)
Votes for ~OpZ~ (1)
Votes for johnnyspazz (4)
Votes for meeple (4)
Votes for flamewheel (1)
Meeple has yet to claim, though Ludwig seems to think he's town aligned. Given that Ludwig is basically a confirmed townie, that may be good enough. It's very possible meeple roleclaimed his true role to Ludwig. If this is the case, it may need to be made public as the votes come in. Chezinu also has yet to claim, but I'm not particularly worried about him....
Blue Roles: Seems very unlikely that we have two detectives, also seems unlikely that Ludwig is not a detective, as he roleclaimed very early on, and really doesn't seem like the type of player to roleclaim blue if he's mafia. Personally I think Moocow is lying, but he should get a pass for the moment given our claiming plan. He's an obvious target for the mafia, so if he hasn't died after a few nights, we start thinking about lynching him.
If any blue roles have claimed green in the thread(medics/vets/hatters etc.), you should think about roleclaiming to tree.hugger or ludwig, who strike me as very likely pro-town.
Lynch candidates for tonight seem to be meeple and Jspazz. I disagree with both of these choices. Unfortunately I don't have a real great alternative right now, as I don't have time to scour for people who are coasting. Redtooth and Foolishness both posted early on, but haven't given much input once the roleclaims really starting coming in, and haven't given input into lynching. Vivi57 kinda falls in this category as well. Probably other people as well. Also, I really don't like that Flamewheel voted for himself, abstaining is a bad thing for the town, but he's probably town, as I doubt a mafia would want to draw attention to himself.
Honestly AcrossFiveJulys(and Citi.zen for that matter) still strikes me as possible mafia, but he's been active, which is worth a lot of suspicion. I'd honestly rather have an active mafia then an inactive townie.
Here is the order of roleclaims for reference:
1 tree.hugger tracker
2 ohN Townie
3 LuDwig- Detective
4 Radfield Townie
5 johnnyspazz Townie
6 AcrossFiveJulys Townie
7 RebirthOfLeGend Townie
8 L Townie
9 flamewheel Townie
10 Vivi57 Townie
11 redtooth Townie
12 citi.zen Townie
13 ~OpZ~ Townie
14 MooCow Detective
15 Foolishness Townie
We really need more activity in the thread, though it can be assumed that PM's are happening behind the scenes. For now redtooth gets my vote unless he starts posting some more. I may change later.
DOCTOR: you should think long and hard about protecting tree.hugger as he is our most confirmed townie. But don't be afraid to protect one of the other blue claimers as well. Seems likely one of them will die.
On June 12 2010 10:19 L wrote:
Yeah, not enough people caring if johnny would die :/.
Anyways, so the plan basically goes like this; Tracker tracks our DTs. Watchers watch any of our blues. If one of DTs is bullshitting, we'll be able to figure it out immediately. DTs can check our blues if they want, but given the sanity issue I can understand another checks.
Sound decent? Comments plz.
We should also decide on a day 2 lynch candidate, so whomever our dt checks, we can lynch them day 2, and get closer to narrowing down their sanity.
I'm leaning towards a low activity townie (redtooth, foolishness, vivi) or AFJ. DT's feel free to use your own discretion, but be prepared to lynch whomever you check tonight.