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Here's my analysis of zeks' from a while back: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=127781¤tpage=51#1017
Some of his recent posts:
#915: Responds to my analysis.
#1062 Thinks the Mafia on deuce's bandwagon would probably have stayed there because it was so well established.
#1079 Waiting for new day post.
#1085 Question about whether inactives will be modkilled.
#1106 Posts trying to link clues to 3 Lions. Misses the stronger links outlined later on, but obviously 3 Lions is pretty likely connected to the (later) clues.
#1139 Trusts DTA's drive to get onihunter lynched.
#1153 Adds on to a previous post that if onihunter flips Miller instead of Mafia we can begin trusting DTA and form a town circle.
#1158 Analysis post on onihunter. He uses the fact that onihunter supported lynching deuce initially and only switched to MooCow later when the bandwagon was fairly well established as evidence that deuce is probably still green. He thinks that onihunter probably only switched because the result didn't matter, and he wanted to evenly distribute Mafia votes. I disagree with this inerpretation - I think there were probably quite a few Mafia on board with MooCow's lynching. Even as onihunter said, losing MooCow as a townie would be a bigger loss than losing deuce, so I think it's likely that a lot of Mafia jumped onto the MooCow bandwagon when they realized it was a possibility. Don't know about deuce, but I feel like he probably is just a retarded townie (I guess we'll find out for sure when he's modkilled this round).
#1203 Says he trusts DTA/DTA has established himself as a townie
#1206 Questions whether YellowInk still thinks deuce is red.
#1209/1210 He's convinced that the MooCow bandwagon was not a Mafia ploy, and deuce is green because onihunter turned against him quickly.
#1213 Again says he's sure that most of the mafia were against deuce.
#1214 Post about Gila bandwagon - he clears LaXer because onihunter supported his lynching early in the game, says CompX/bumatlarge are suspicious because they voted near the end. This confuses me (even though CompX is suspicious). Why would the mafia waste two votes? The only plus side is that they wouldn't be involved in the lynching of a green, so there wouldn't be much suspicion cast on them compared to the others.
#1216 More about deuce's bandwagon.
I'm sure there were Mafia on both bandwagons, so these points are valid. I also think that there were probably more Mafia switching over to MooCow's bandwagon when the time arose. Zeks mentioned the fact that he was with AFJ from the start, and he never switched his vote. This doesn't clear him - he could have just been a Mafia member waiting to see what happened, then when he saw AFJ make that post about MooCow, he jumped on the opportunity. Then, after pushing for MooCow's lynching constantly, the other Mafia finally "came around" and supported him.
I'm still pretty sure zeks is Mafia.
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sputnik.theory:
#159 Introduction post, says he's happy to be playing his first TL Mafia game, but he's played others before.
#265 Asks if it's common for Mafia to run for elected roles, and if it is we should have more election options. How would more options help?
#424 Accepts that YellowInk and Darth will win the elections, says that we should lynch inactives because a blue role would likely be active. Could be a justification for his own inactivity, trying to say that he's just inactive because he's only a green.
#553 Defends his lack of activity. He says there just isn't much to say in the early game, so that's why he hadn't done anything at that point. Says he'll be posting more later.
#556/557 Claims that a lot of YellowInk's posts from day 1 were mostly just about getting elected, and again states that he just wasn't interested in posting that early in the game. Says he didn't write that post to "insight ruckus".
#690 He wrote a big post then apparently lost it.
#692 Presents the theory that there were two Mafia involved in ElyAs' death. Says this implicates MTF.
#700 Garbage post about how he thought the clues were supporting convoluted plots. Makes sure to cover himself by saying he's not definitely behind this idea.
#914 Inactivity post.
Votes: Darth, MooCow
Reeks of Mafia to me. The little back and forth at the beginning of the game seemed reasonable enough. Then he never started posting more even when the game got more interesting. Tried to cast doubt on MTF. Voted MooCow with no explanation. Has done nothing since.
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On June 11 2010 09:23 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +
#1062 Thinks the Mafia on deuce's bandwagon would probably have stayed there because it was so well established.
It would have stayed there if the MooCow argument never existed. If AFJ never came up with the MooCow thing we'd have something like a 17-5 vote split for deuce and Gila respectively. Show nested quote +
#1106 Posts trying to link clues to 3 Lions. Misses the stronger links outlined later on, but obviously 3 Lions is pretty likely connected to the (later) clues.
If 3 Lions is red would that not practically clear my name? Show nested quote +
#1158 Analysis post on onihunter. He uses the fact that onihunter supported lynching deuce initially and only switched to MooCow later when the bandwagon was fairly well established as evidence that deuce is probably still green. He thinks that onihunter probably only switched because the result didn't matter, and he wanted to evenly distribute Mafia votes. I disagree with this inerpretation - I think there were probably quite a few Mafia on board with MooCow's lynching. Even as onihunter said, losing MooCow as a townie would be a bigger loss than losing deuce, so I think it's likely that a lot of Mafia jumped onto the MooCow bandwagon when they realized it was a possibility. Don't know about deuce, but I feel like he probably is just a retarded townie (I guess we'll find out for sure when he's modkilled this round).
Losing MooCow would be only a slightly bigger loss than deuce (like 1 millimeter more). I won't argue how effective MooCow was the whole game, but sure I accept the fact some people think MooCow was more useful than deuce. Show nested quote +
#1209/1210 He's convinced that the MooCow bandwagon was not a Mafia ploy, and deuce is green because onihunter turned against him quickly.
The MooCow bandwagon was started by a townie. Mafia used it to cover themselves up by spreading the votes evenly and to take out a better player (most of you agree MooCow was more useful than deuce). They were taking advantage of our "mistake" if you want to call it that. Yes, until the MooCow option came up for them. Show nested quote +
#1214 Post about Gila bandwagon - he clears LaXer because onihunter supported his lynching early in the game, says CompX/bumatlarge are suspicious because they voted near the end. This confuses me (even though CompX is suspicious). Why would the mafia waste two votes? The only plus side is that they wouldn't be involved in the lynching of a green, so there wouldn't be much suspicion cast on them compared to the others.
Because I think without MooCow they would've possibly spread their votes with Gila. Then the MooCow thing came up so they used him instead of Gila. Well I said what I said I feel like I'm incriminating myself now for being so defensive all of a sudden. But the main point I want to establish is how mafia was distributed in those voting lists.
For what it's worth, I'm not as suspicious about you as I am about the inactives with a few fishy posts like sputnik.theory, or the ones with clues connected to them like Hugoboss/3 Lions.
I just feel like, as far as active posters go, you're one of the most suspicious. Maybe I need to read the entire exchange again, but I felt like anyone reasonable could assume that there were Mafia on every list. It just seemed like you were being way too defensive about the whole deal. And no, I don't think you connecting clues to 3 Lions would definitely make you a townie if he is indeed red.
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I guess 3 Lions is going to get modkilled this round anyway. We'll see what happens... I'd imagine a Mafia member wouldn't just give up like this.
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Oh nevermind, didn't see his post. He'll just be warned. Lame.
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sicksicksick I was right about 3 Lions getting modkilled
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No, they have to hit LaXerCannon specifically. Until the bodyguards are dead, multiple hits do nothing.
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Or a fake medic that was told to save LaXerCannon figured out why.
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The clues this round seem especially cryptic, but here's my attempt at analyzing them:
These are the possible clues, in my opinion:
YellowInk/LaXerCannon are companions in analyzing clues
Went through hours of fruitless work?
LaXerCannon was attacked from behind.
YellowInk experienced an explosion of pain in his legs.
LaXerCannon bled out - so he was stabbed?
YellowInk walked past gallows and was lynched.
I haven't seen anything regarding the gallows/lynching in anyones profiles, so it could just be a game related sentence, not a clue. There may be something deeper there though.
LaXer bleeding out is big in my opinion. Every night people have been stabbed.
Players left with things related to stabbing in their profiles:
Hugoboss21 with the TF2/Spy reference
Zyrre with the "gut this puppy" quote
zeks with the ninja who throws knives
The other clue that really jumps out at me in this post is the fact that YellowInk and LaXer are companions. Even though they're both blue roles, the clue can still be relevant, right?
Players left that relate to being together:
BrownBear has a picture of him and his friend together
DCLXVI has a quote: "If you truly love each other, die together". This might be relevant because it's referring to *other* people who are together.
bumatlarge has the quote "together but separate, like oatmeal". LaXer and YellowInk went separate ways. Also, not related to this post specifically, but his profile says "that's how i like it bitch, dark and gritty" which relates to night posts in general.
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If we're voting inactives I'd rather vote sputnik.theory and Hugoboss.
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I'm going to vote along with MTF.
I've wanted Hugo out for a while, too little posting (all of which is about how he's sorry he's not posting enough - trying to get sympathy), clue connections, etc.
I also trust Darth's DT check, and the worst case scenario will probably be that bumatlarge turns out to be a Miller.
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Glad it's over, but I would have died tonight anyway :D
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I was less suspicious of you (edit: Darth) after LaXerCannon/YellowInk died because he said he had another medic roleclaim to him. I thought the most likely situation was that YellowInk's other roleclaimer was a fake, but in retrospect that's pretty retarded. Obviously he would have cleared himself by saving MTF. Oopsies!
I'm definitely guilty of not doing anything this game. I was way too lazy to put in the time I needed to to be a good town poster - if I ever play again I'll have to keep this in mind. Luckily there were worse people around =]!
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Also, I've never played this here or anywhere else  gj 3 Lions
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On June 14 2010 12:14 flamewheel wrote:
I like Jessica more :<
Also ugh inactivity owned this game. I hate that. People need to be more active in TL Mafia >.>
Sorry for my inactivity. In the future I'll try signing up for a game without clues - then I won't be able to excuse myself from actually reading/posting as much as I should because I can "fall back on clues" to determine people's alignment.
Though my clue analysis was pretty shitty anyway . Especially about Darth. I had no idea he was connected to the clues, didn't take names into account when scanning profiles.
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I was also kinda timid about calling anyone out/going public with my PM experiences after you guys died because I hadn't really confirmed that I was actually a medic with anyone in the circle. Darth had a lot more support for sure - and it's been revealed since that deconduo thought I was Mafia. So I probably would have ended up being hung if I actually did point fingers at Darth ;p
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Ack. Hopefully next game I'll be less retarded/more gutsy.
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EPT
