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On June 05 2010 11:31 LunarDestiny wrote:
Brownbear, did you slip you tongue. Only mafia and day vig kills at night.
The town should now make a propose plan and blue roles should follow it.
What do you mean? I said we have 24 hours (night cycle) to ponder and plot and plan a course of action, and then we start the whole voting cycle over again (next day).
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Protecting active people is always a good idea. The mafia wants to silence people who are active, especially those who are actively suspecting mafia members, and they also want to silence voices of reason in the thread - people who are trying keep the conversation going, instead of just flaming. Those are the people you need to protect.
Of course, we could get into the whole "mafia will anticipate it and hit random people" thing, but really, it's better to be safe than sorry. See: Radfield. Almost every single friggin game he gets bumped off early, but the games he stays alive in, he tends to help town out quite a bit, because he is very intelligent and calm and can analyze very well, plus he doesn't mind taking a leadership role, and people don't mind listening to him.
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I really want to know why Misder voted for me as well... right after I specifically said I was withdrawing. Oh, bitter bitter irony.
And I second what Darth is saying - I want to see all the people who were reasonably to terribly inactive the first day really step it up and post a ton second day. I posted something like 20 times, I feel that 10-15 should be the bare minimum for anyone who wants to contribute to the game. Also, make your posts content-filled please! Don't just post 10 one liners and walk off thinking you did your part, cause you didn't, and people will call you on it.
On June 05 2010 10:36 LunarDestiny wrote:Here you go (did not take account of quality of post, just quanity. Number of post as of post #469: ![[image loading]](http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/8149/post469.jpg)
Where did you get that, because I want it. Or is that just your spreadsheet?
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I am going to sleep now, I will be back on tomorrow evening, so I will probably miss the results of the night. I will be back though, and I'll post some stuff then. Take care, all!
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On June 07 2010 09:57 LunarDestiny wrote:
A temporary voting count:
TheGilaboy(3): LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX.
Deucegladlier(3):Deucegladlier, YellowInk, crate.
It is highly likely that either one lynch target is mafia. Ignoring Deucegladlier's self voting since it is not logical. We have three more inactive players voting for TheGilaboy and two more active and better posters voting for Deucegladlier.
This makes me farther suspects that Deucegladlier is a possible mafia since:
1)Inactive players are voting against active players.
2)TheGilaboy which I consider as average in term of activeness and quality postings vs. Deucegladlier who is very inactive and a bad poster.
I am not saying that LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, and CompX are mafia. I am saying if the mafia want to divert our attention and starts a bandwagon, they want to vote early for a suspicious, pro town target.
I'm wondering if DeuceGladlier realizes that voting for yourself is a bad idea after day 1...?
Either he's new and doesn't understand this, he's a really really dumb mafia, or he just doesn't want to play anymore.
I'd like to see him post something in his defense before I vote, but he seems to be a good target, at least for now. If he voted for himself because he just didn't understand the game, that's ok, but I agree with what crate said - his posting has been piss-poor so far, and that's unacceptable at this stage in the game.
I will do some more analysis of the clues/closeread the thread later, I'm sorry for my relative inactivity over the last couple of days. I was at a 2-day job training seminar, and for some reason they wouldn't give us internet, despite us working at a tech camp -.-
Oh, and crate - Oberlin CSL: hit Z to win 
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On June 07 2010 10:12 LunarDestiny wrote:
Sorry if I am giving you guys a hard time but I have to follow up on the voting behavior:
I check edday 1 voting of Deucegladlier, LaXerCannon, pyr0ma5ta, CompX and I noticed that they are almost the last few voters of the mayor election. Further proving that they might be mafia together...
It's possible, but we also might be too hasty to jump to that conclusion because they've all been inactive, and town as a whole tends to put just a little too much faith in the "lynch inactives to hit mafia" idea. I do like your thinking though, and that's honestly not a bad starting point.
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Here's my thought on the double lynch:
In the last Big Important Mafia game I played (I believe it was XXII), town was not doing so hot, so they tried to use their double-lynches starting day 3. All they accomplished was killing town twice as fast, as they lynched 2 town players a day instead of 1 (iirc they got 1 mafia using 2 double lynches, so 3 town also died).
Doubly lynches absolutely should not be used unless we have two very clear targets, and we are very sure both targets are mafia. In this game so far, discounting any "mafias-would-be-inactive-so-lets-get-inactives" evidence, I only see clue-based (i.e. worthless) and circumstantial evidence that anyone is mafia. Thus, I am going to say no to double-lynching for at least one more day, because I don't think evidence is strong enough yet to warrant it.
Remember, double-lynch may seem cool, but it's actually a gamble. It can turn defeat into victory for the town, but it can also kill them that much faster.
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On June 07 2010 11:17 pyr0ma5ta wrote:
I am just reminding you (and more importantly, the rest of the town) that if things turn out poorly, to remember where this terrible idea came from.
You are the only person who thinks it's a bad idea, and you are one of the people indicted by the statement. Until someone who isn't one of the four people mentioned comes out and posts, I'm not really inclined to listen to you whine about how an idea to lynch you is a bad idea, especially given your evidence so far (LD is right, voting is traditionally all over the place and random, so large groups of people voting together is suspicious.)
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On June 07 2010 18:46 DarthThienAn wrote:
@BB: Hey man, was worried where you went. Welcome back :p. Did you do Oberlin CSL o.o? Meh, I guess the only person I know from that teams is Sunyveil heh.
Yeah, joined midway through though so I didn't get to play last season, will be playing next season tho
AFJ: Why the sudden pushing really really hard for voting for MooCow? I'm reading through your logic, and it seems alright, but in a day where it seems likely Deuce is going to get the axe, why would you start pushing really hard to lynch someone else? It makes no sense to me.
I'm going to stick my vote on Deuce as a placeholder: like I said earlier, if he posts some content I have no problem changing it, but if he keeps trolling the KPop thread instead of posting here, well...
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Im pretty sure at this point that Deuce knows hes boned, so he's not even trying.
It might be strategic to switch our vote off of him to someone else, and see what his/other peoples' reactions are...
Also, lol@pyro.
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On June 08 2010 05:20 YellowInk wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2010 05:16 BrownBear wrote:
Im pretty sure at this point that Deuce knows hes boned, so he's not even trying.
It might be strategic to switch our vote off of him to someone else, and see what his/other peoples' reactions are...
Also, lol@pyro. Eh, I disagree. All we've asked of Deuce is to post something of substance. If he does and it's not just a c/p of ideas everyone else has presented, I'd be glad to swap over to another inactive. Sure, we might not make it in time, but Deuce definitely still has a shot at living.
Fair enough, it was just a suggestion ^^ I'm trying to be a bit more active to make up for missing last night + most of today, but for some reason I tend to post a bunch the first day then transition into lurking and posting only when I feel like commenting on something/answering a question. Maybe because I was a zerg player in BW... always gotta transition into lurks :D
I will try my hardest to stay active tho.
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I like AFJ's logic for moocow, so I will change my vote to him. I do not think it will really change much at this point though, unless enough people sign on again and read his logic.
It would be interesting to have everyone who leaves their vote on Deuce explain why they left their vote on Deuce. If nothing else, it would be good at rooting out the guys who log on once to vote and post and are then gone for the rest of the day.
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Epic vote. Regardless of the shitty outcome, you have to admit it was quite theatrical.
And yeah... all of us on the MooCow train damned ourselves just a little bit by doing that. I'm prepared to defend myself as to why I thought it was a good idea to vote for him, if necessary, but briefly from what I see, the list consists of a LOT of active players - AFJ, myself, DTA, LD, zeks, oni... I think it's far more likely that the mafia stayed silent on the Deuce bandwagon, rather than risking drawing attention to themselves.
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We only have 0 or 1 vigis left, remember, cause Icysoul got modkilled ><
Its possible that there was only one vigi, and his failure may have just put us in a deep hole. I'm hoping there's 2, but I agree with what AFJ and Yink said - unless you have 100% solid evidence you're going to shoot a mafia, save your nightkill for another time.
Darth, in response to why I voted for MooCow:
On June 08 2010 05:16 BrownBear wrote:
Im pretty sure at this point that Deuce knows hes boned, so he's not even trying.
It might be strategic to switch our vote off of him to someone else, and see what his/other peoples' reactions are...
This is on page 45, when I was realizing that killing Deuce really only gave us a dead Deuce. It didn't really give us much else to go on. When I switched my vote to MooCow, I was hoping that MooCow would die. Here's what his death gives us:
We now have a list of people who voted for MooCow that we can analyze. The fact that my name is on this list is irrelevant to me, as I'm fairly confident I can defend myself well, and I have played very pro-town so far. Like MTF said, however, this is a good STARTING point, not the super important all-6-mafia-are-on-this-list-kthxbye list.
In addition, we now have the people who chose NOT to switch their vote off of Deuce. Some people, like crate or YellowInk, gave good reasoning backing up their decision to stay on Deuce. Others had excuses, such as they voted for Deuce then posted that they would be gone the rest of the day due to RL reasons, which is understandable. Many people, though, still have yet to post a solid reason, and others were very vocal in trying to throw Deuce under a bus.
In essence, MooCow dying and flipping green probably benefited the town much more than Deuce dying, flipping whatever color, and giving us no information.
From this point forth, here's what I want to see happen:
If you voted for MooCow, give an explanation, similar to mine, as to why you did. Not just "because AFJ said so" or "because I was following the bandwagon", but a solid reason why you wanted him to die. The people who can't answer this question should be analyzed more carefully than the people who can.
If you kept your vote on Deuce, explain why you did. If you have already, you're clear, but for those of you who haven't, I'd like to know why. Also, if you were one of the people trying hardcore to lynch him, explain why you did so.
If you were part of the random-ass bandwagon on TheGilaBoy, can you explain why you voted for him too?
Ideally, this should all happen today, before the night actions get resolved, so that we have a lot of stuff to analyze tomorrow.
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@bumatlarge: Agreed, but to be fair, we got murdered in Mafia XXII because we placed too much faith in rolechecks, and we happened to rolecheck all the millers, then lynch them for being mafia. I'm not saying your argument is without merit, because what you're saying absolutely true. We just have to remember it swings both ways.
Also, HAPPY BURFDAYYY
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That was not a good night. We are now out of vigis.
...shit.
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On June 09 2010 08:09 crate wrote:Show nested quote +BrownBear wrote:
[B]ut to be fair, we [town] got murdered in Mafia XXII because we placed too much faith in rolechecks, and we happened to rolecheck all the millers, then lynch them for being mafia. I'm not saying your argument is without merit, because what you're saying absolutely true. We just have to remember it swings both ways. Do some math on that one. I'm not sure the better team wins every game in mafia because there's some "luck" involved (medic protections, DT checks, millers, etc.). If I'd been in that game I'd have gone off of Ace's rolechecks too because it was the correct decision. Again, if a DT check that you know comes from a legit DT turns up red, do you really advocate not acting on it?
Well, obviously, and that was a weird game because we had Ace out in the open as a DT. I'm just pointing out that rolechecks are not infallible, and should be treated as such. For example, if a very very pro-town player flips red to a rolecheck, we might have to ask ourselves "could he possibly be a miller?"
For anyone but the most pro-town players, though, we should definitely use the rolecheck as enough evidence to murder them.
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On June 09 2010 12:05 LunarDestiny wrote:
AcrossFIveJuly is a logical target.
But Pyromaster is a bad target. Pyromaster got a 2 days temp ban and would be mod killed anyway. That is one wasted kill right there.
And looks like someone was protected by a medic.
Not wasted, because he did flip bodyguard. I do agree that it was poor logic on the mafia's part though.
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Agreed, it does look like someone was protected by a medic, too. I think whoever was protected is informed via PM, iirc, so they might want to mention that in the thread. Alternately, if the medic knows their protection saved someone, they should PM that person and let them know, because that's 2 confirmed townies right there that can work together, since there aren't 3rd party roles.
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LD - that's pretty sharp analysis, but remember that clues are nowhere near that useful most of the time... although it is day 3, so it's possible that thats a solid starting point.
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EPT
