EPTOn April 01 2010 05:54 haster27 wrote:
I see I am being suspected due to my inactivity. I expected this sooner or later; I over-extended myself signing in two games after all. I have no other defense to mount besides the fact that I have been too much preoccupied trying to save the disaster that was going down on WaW Mafia. Thus at this point I will just post my analysis of all alive players.
Will split this up into each players because this is taking longer than I expected.
First, Fishball
First thing that concerns me about Fishball is the way he made a vote on citizen. His first big post is nonsense argument that there are likely to be one Mafia on 1~3, and another around 5~7 due to probability. This is when Zona said in his OP that roles are distributed by random number generator and that lists are clearly alphabetical. I took a quick look at the past games held, and there were lot of instances where Mafia were clumped together on one side of the list. Fishball to my knowledge has played on TL Mafia lots of times, so why is he making such argument? Citizen argued that his 1~3,5~7 idea is senseless, which Fishball responded with a vote calling it a "play".
Now this has been already pointed out by nemY, which he defended by stating 1) he said his list cannot be trusted, and 2) the list was created purely for the speculation. This makes his vote make less sense. This is the citizen post that is the problem:
Long post saying... that since you are in the middle of the alphabetical player list, you must somehow be innocent? And that there maybe is a mafia in slots 1-3, and another in slots 5-7 (surely not 4 though!) - even though the blues were both bottom of the list? You've lost me
Note that main topic of the post was to claim that Fishball's list was senseless (logically for the reasons I stated above) and not to argue that Fishball is Mafia. Now, number one is perfect defense. I post a idea or opinion that could influence other people's thoughts, and when someone writes that idea is flawed, I can criticize him because I wrote in that post that people are free to believe or not believe this idea. Fishball is saying citizen is Mafia for pointing out a flaw in his argument- this is like worse form of OMGUS. I just feel like the vote has been thrown too lightly, especially considering that the idea being criticized was just "speculation" as you state.
Another thing I note is that Fishball's first big post implicate Ace pretty heavily for wrong reasons, since out of 1~3 player list Ace is only surviving non-Mafia member. Random hit argument is also ridiculous, since Versatile arguing with citizen gave Mafia far more incentive to kill her than any random Townie like me who post but had not posted any wrong accusations against Townie yet. I did not do firm analysis on Ace yet, so don't know what to make out of this for now.
Another thing I note is that Fishball seem to have made a lot of posts that look impressive, but does not help much at all at hindsight; 1~3,5~7 Mafia list, "If I vote randomly, I have XX% chance of hitting Mafia", "Ace, citi.zen, RoL, all give me the same gut feeling. Seems like either one of them are Mafia, or all three of them are green.", "johnnyspazz vote change should be something to be noted".
This is the post where he wrote his opinion about all the players before his (still continuing) argument with johnnyspazz occured. First, he comes out of nowhere and state nemY is his top suspect without giving any explanation although he did not post many comments such like johnnyspazz. It should be pro-town move to write at least a sentence about one's reason for suspicion. And I cannot see why I would be treated as least suspect. I checked, and my only contribution was two posts about Xelin absense and Citizen-Ace conflict. Pro-town moves, but definitely not enough to push me out of 'possible Mafia' area.
In fact, "If I had the power to kill someone, right here, right now, he would be my top pick" is the correct reaction pro-town player should have toward me, even if just to force me into activity. However, I am concerned about "my top pick" comment. Although I might be lurking Mafia, it is just that- suspicion. There is not much evidence against me besides my preference toward that other game, and in situation where 3 Townie vs 2 Mafia, Town should be trying to lynch suspect with most evidence against him rather than one having dubious alignment. Could have intentionally exaggerated his wording to create a bandwagon attempt against me.
Currently I think that he is likely Mafia, although my opinion may change after looking at other players.
By the way, don't trust my argument because I may or may not be Townie. This is all speculation, and everyone should make up their minds themselves.
I see I am being suspected due to my inactivity. I expected this sooner or later; I over-extended myself signing in two games after all. I have no other defense to mount besides the fact that I have been too much preoccupied trying to save the disaster that was going down on WaW Mafia. Thus at this point I will just post my analysis of all alive players.
Will split this up into each players because this is taking longer than I expected.
First, Fishball
First thing that concerns me about Fishball is the way he made a vote on citizen. His first big post is nonsense argument that there are likely to be one Mafia on 1~3, and another around 5~7 due to probability. This is when Zona said in his OP that roles are distributed by random number generator and that lists are clearly alphabetical. I took a quick look at the past games held, and there were lot of instances where Mafia were clumped together on one side of the list. Fishball to my knowledge has played on TL Mafia lots of times, so why is he making such argument? Citizen argued that his 1~3,5~7 idea is senseless, which Fishball responded with a vote calling it a "play".
Now this has been already pointed out by nemY, which he defended by stating 1) he said his list cannot be trusted, and 2) the list was created purely for the speculation. This makes his vote make less sense. This is the citizen post that is the problem:
Long post saying... that since you are in the middle of the alphabetical player list, you must somehow be innocent? And that there maybe is a mafia in slots 1-3, and another in slots 5-7 (surely not 4 though!) - even though the blues were both bottom of the list? You've lost me
Note that main topic of the post was to claim that Fishball's list was senseless (logically for the reasons I stated above) and not to argue that Fishball is Mafia. Now, number one is perfect defense. I post a idea or opinion that could influence other people's thoughts, and when someone writes that idea is flawed, I can criticize him because I wrote in that post that people are free to believe or not believe this idea. Fishball is saying citizen is Mafia for pointing out a flaw in his argument- this is like worse form of OMGUS. I just feel like the vote has been thrown too lightly, especially considering that the idea being criticized was just "speculation" as you state.
Another thing I note is that Fishball's first big post implicate Ace pretty heavily for wrong reasons, since out of 1~3 player list Ace is only surviving non-Mafia member. Random hit argument is also ridiculous, since Versatile arguing with citizen gave Mafia far more incentive to kill her than any random Townie like me who post but had not posted any wrong accusations against Townie yet. I did not do firm analysis on Ace yet, so don't know what to make out of this for now.
Another thing I note is that Fishball seem to have made a lot of posts that look impressive, but does not help much at all at hindsight; 1~3,5~7 Mafia list, "If I vote randomly, I have XX% chance of hitting Mafia", "Ace, citi.zen, RoL, all give me the same gut feeling. Seems like either one of them are Mafia, or all three of them are green.", "johnnyspazz vote change should be something to be noted".
This is the post where he wrote his opinion about all the players before his (still continuing) argument with johnnyspazz occured. First, he comes out of nowhere and state nemY is his top suspect without giving any explanation although he did not post many comments such like johnnyspazz. It should be pro-town move to write at least a sentence about one's reason for suspicion. And I cannot see why I would be treated as least suspect. I checked, and my only contribution was two posts about Xelin absense and Citizen-Ace conflict. Pro-town moves, but definitely not enough to push me out of 'possible Mafia' area.
In fact, "If I had the power to kill someone, right here, right now, he would be my top pick" is the correct reaction pro-town player should have toward me, even if just to force me into activity. However, I am concerned about "my top pick" comment. Although I might be lurking Mafia, it is just that- suspicion. There is not much evidence against me besides my preference toward that other game, and in situation where 3 Townie vs 2 Mafia, Town should be trying to lynch suspect with most evidence against him rather than one having dubious alignment. Could have intentionally exaggerated his wording to create a bandwagon attempt against me.
Currently I think that he is likely Mafia, although my opinion may change after looking at other players.
By the way, don't trust my argument because I may or may not be Townie. This is all speculation, and everyone should make up their minds themselves.
Why hello there. I knew you would pop out after I singled you out.
Now, I've done enough talking about the god damn list in the past few pages, and ALL your points have already been answered. You are basically repeating what Nemy said, same shit over and over again. If you are too naive to understand or lazy to read, feel free to say and bash whatever you like.
Regarding the "Nemy-top-suspect" quote, that was many days ago. I also said you were at the bottom of my list at the time too, but that has also changed also, right?
