TL Mafia XVIII - Page 11

On February 14 2010 07:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
As the game as begun, it is time to get it started.

I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for the position of mayor.

I believe the town can easily win this if we work together, as a concise unit, and do so before the mafia can create their own plans. Action must happen now. My campaign is on a platform of strength. I believe I have the strength to help pull this town together. I can analyze clues, behaviour, and can help guide blues to where they should act. The more we work together, the less we have to lose. The first lynch at the moment, as there is nothing to really go on, I believe is moot unless someone gives themself away obviously. Therefore I would lynch the most inactive player, or in the case of someone giving themself away, that person. Any other choice should be pardon'd instantly.

Vote for unity, Vote for strength, Vote for bloodyc0bbler

On February 14 2010 08:23 Ver wrote:
I don't want this game to head in the directions of the two intro games that were previously played so time to lay some ground rules before the momentum is too much:

Overly discussing clues on the first day, generally even the first two days, helps the mafia. Period.

Why is this? Clues are designed so that they become stronger over time. Each mafia member is assigned a profile with various traits, and a few are picked every night. Thus it would be absolutely unfair for clues to be useful early on, because if they only get more useful over time, the mafia are just going to die to clues every day.

Tthe best two clue analyzers here are Camlito and MTF (neither are playing btw). They don't really bother doing much with clues before day 3 and certainly don't find anything conclusive. Day 3 is the day when the profiles start to fit. That's when these two start making big progress and pinning down mafia. And these guys are the very best.

For those not convinced, here are some facts:

There have only been two mafia caught on clues before day 3. Truthbringer in Plexa's game, and DoctorHelvetica in Incognito's last game. That's two out of A LOT of attempts. Of serious clue suspects in all the games, I'd say it's probably 5-10% success rate. Do you seriously want to try to get a mafia on that percentage? Randomly selecting a person is at least twice as likely if not four times than by day 1 clues.

Now why does this help the mafia? First, the odds of success are so low that it diverts the town's efforts into meaningless pursuits. This let's the mafia control the game flow (very important) and restricts the amount of useful information we are able to get. Secondly, it gives the mafia very easy methods for blending in without being forced to give real contributions. By this I don't mean they put in no effort and just throw some slop down; that would be obvious. Mafia members can type serious clue analysis and just not target their family. That would look exactly like a townie because...clues this early are so vague and useless townies are not going to be getting many mafia anyway. Or sheesh, they can frame their own members and it doesn't really matter because they aren't going to convince anyone to kill on that alone.

Since I have a sneaking suspicion most people just glaze over my essays I'm going to try breaking them up into smaller chunks and seeing if that has any improvement.

On February 14 2010 08:30 L wrote:
1) I've been trying to change my picture, but I need to find out my password.

2) I'll be running for mayor.

3) Ver's retarded and looking at clues is plenty helpful, especially since it lets you see who's pushing against who. Regardless, having people talking is better than having people not talking. Its far easier to let people be silent in a 50 man game than have them actively feign town interests.

Proof? Pretty much every large game we've had.

In the current game, a full 40% of people playing are mafia; while clues shouldn't be the only thing you have on someone, they should definitely play a part.

Then again this is probably just my interpretation, given that I'm one of the only people who is responsible for a clue kill on day 1 or 2.