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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
On January 23 2010 21:31 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I'll post what I think of all of this tomorrow. I'm too upset right now to even think or read or do anything at all. I'm with you... incredibly sorry for both Flash and Jaedong. | ||
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StimiLant
United States534 Posts
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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
I am gone for the next 12 hours to a debate tournament. Therefore, consider me not defending myself (though I think I've done that well enough on previous pages) is not me "copping out." See you at 8:00 p.m. EST. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
Fuck. This really sucks for us. There's no way that the Mafia could have known that blue_arrow was a bodyguard, considering that bodyguards have no reason to reveal themselves to anyone, so I don't think we can get any clues from who he was in contact with. Bill_Murray... He contacted so many people that I'm not sure who could have been mafia in this case. We'd need a solid set of clues matching up with a specific person to confirm that. Abenson was green so not much we can get from his connections. Now on the issue of the clues, I think the flamewheel connection is ridiculously strong here. It's probably the most solid link we have thus far, considering we have apparently the same characteristics as the mafia guy mentioned in the post as in his profile picture. As for the kane connection, I'm also pretty sold on that as well, considering the apparently big clue given to us and the rather solid link between the bucket and the mafia as well as the sledgehammer (though a bit more tenuous). I think right now I would want to lynch flamewheel, but that might be a bit too hasty. We have 48 hours left, let's use it all up. I'll be back later for clue analysis. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
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510Sushi
Azerbaijan331 Posts
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789
United States959 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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Jugan
United States1566 Posts
On January 24 2010 04:52 ghote wrote: super luck, unless he reveled it to someone in a pm, but i see no reason why he would do such a thing , most likely a lucky guess bodyguards don't know who they are. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
bodyguards don't know who each other are, but they do know that they are bodyguards. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
Well we still have over a day to make up our minds. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
On January 23 2010 14:31 flamewheel91 wrote: And this is not as strong of a correlation? | ||
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Jugan
United States1566 Posts
On January 24 2010 05:32 Incognito wrote: bodyguards don't know who each other are, but they do know that they are bodyguards. oh i didn't know that. my bad! lol | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On January 24 2010 06:33 789 wrote: This + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2010 14:31 flamewheel91 wrote: And this is not as strong of a correlation? The mafia could stage a disagreement to throw suspicion off of one or both of them, but it seems unlikely. Right now I feel, barely, that the clues are a bit stronger toward kane but I'm still pretty torn. For the time being, my vote is on kane. | ||
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Hyperbola
United States2533 Posts
On January 24 2010 06:33 789 wrote: This + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2010 14:31 flamewheel91 wrote: And this is not as strong of a correlation? You know there's such a thing as reverse logic? Throwing another mafia to the wolves will make people doubt he is guilty. This last clue against kane is pretty strong. I'd say, for now, he actually is our best target. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
On January 24 2010 06:59 DoctorHelvetica wrote: The mafia could stage a disagreement to throw suspicion off of one or both of them, but it seems unlikely. Right now I feel, barely, that the clues are a bit stronger toward kane but I'm still pretty torn. For the time being, my vote is on kane. I'm going to hold out on voting until sometime tommorow. I don't want to end up flip flopping my vote as I change my mind like I did for the election lol. Yeah, right now I'm leaning on kane unless something changes. I think I'm out of ideas myself, but will still be open to ideas from others. I've got one question though. Why are people pushing so hard for a double lynch on day 3? I'm not sure we have enough to be sure that we'll have 2 worthy suspects tomorrow as things stand now. I'm probably going to abstain from that vote for the time being. I'm not going to vote against that if it ends up what most people want to do. I'm not going to vote for it for now - unless someone manages to persuade me. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=91680 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=103738 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=89338 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=66251 1. A lot of people discuss clues but they never use them to lynch until day 3 at the earlier. Even the best clue people so far as i can tell don't do much until day 3. Logically it makes sense because if clues early on are too easy then the mafia have no chance as more and more clues pile on. Also a lot of mafia try to hide by posting fake clue analysis. Because clue analysis is mostly speculation unless a master is doing it i dunno how to tell the fake from the legit. We should be careful of anyone who posts only clue analysis to 'blend in.' in the first game on the list a lot of the mafia posted bogus clue analysis and nobody suspected them because of it. Overall The times people were dead set on killing someone based on a clue early on, they were always wrong. After seeing how wrong people were about clues, i don't trust clues this early at all. if you guys read how useless they were in other games, you probably won't either. Most if not all of the people that everyone is bandwagoning on from clues are going to be innocent. Mafia are prolly laughing at us this whole time. 2. The best players seem to catch a lot of mafia either by pms, logic, or traps in the thread. they also use a variety of plans like a list of people that medics can protect or have ways to confirm innocents. i dunno really how to do this but we should at least be trying instead of wasting time on clues. ill think about it some more and post ideas later. We would be wise to learn from the mistakes and successes of those before us. I feel a little confident now after reading all of that :D We already repeated a mistake that's happened a lot in lynching t_co. Let's not fall victim to any more of that. No more worrying about clues! | ||
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