Incognito's TL Mafia XVI - Page 53

flamewheel

FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts

January 23 2010 12:42 GMT

#1041

On January 23 2010 21:31 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I'll post what I think of all of this tomorrow. I'm too upset right now to even think or read or do anything at all.

I'm with you... incredibly sorry for both Flash and Jaedong.

StimiLant

United States534 Posts

January 23 2010 12:48 GMT

#1042

what an epically tragic finish, i feel like a kid who had his candy taken away by an old man like mr burns

flamewheel

FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts

January 23 2010 13:08 GMT

#1043

Again to all players:
I am gone for the next 12 hours to a debate tournament. Therefore, consider me not defending myself (though I think I've done that well enough on previous pages) is not me "copping out."

See you at 8:00 p.m. EST.

meeple

Canada10211 Posts

January 23 2010 13:48 GMT

#1044

Ah, I guess t_co wasn't very different in the rest of TL... seeing as he just got permabanned.

DoctorHelvetica

United States15034 Posts

January 23 2010 13:52 GMT

#1045

He requested it?

Mystlord

United States10264 Posts

January 23 2010 18:31 GMT

#1046

So after watching a disappointing MSL Finals, I'm back and ready to say:

Fuck. This really sucks for us. There's no way that the Mafia could have known that blue_arrow was a bodyguard, considering that bodyguards have no reason to reveal themselves to anyone, so I don't think we can get any clues from who he was in contact with.

Bill_Murray... He contacted so many people that I'm not sure who could have been mafia in this case. We'd need a solid set of clues matching up with a specific person to confirm that.

Abenson was green so not much we can get from his connections.

Now on the issue of the clues, I think the flamewheel connection is ridiculously strong here. It's probably the most solid link we have thus far, considering we have apparently the same characteristics as the mafia guy mentioned in the post as in his profile picture.

As for the kane connection, I'm also pretty sold on that as well, considering the apparently big clue given to us and the rather solid link between the bucket and the mafia as well as the sledgehammer (though a bit more tenuous).

I think right now I would want to lynch flamewheel, but that might be a bit too hasty. We have 48 hours left, let's use it all up. I'll be back later for clue analysis.

789

United States959 Posts

January 23 2010 19:01 GMT

#1047

The only thing I can come up with for blue_arrow is the mafia was like "hur hur he has blue in his name; he might be a blue." But yeah, it is far more likely it was a random choice that ended up being a good one.

510Sushi

Azerbaijan331 Posts

January 23 2010 19:52 GMT

#1048

super luck, unless he reveled it to someone in a pm, but i see no reason why he would do such a thing , most likely a lucky guess

789

United States959 Posts

January 23 2010 20:06 GMT

#1049

Bodyguard would be one of the more foolish things to reveal in a PM. Their ability is passive, not active. The only reason to reveal it that I can guess is he thought he was talking to a medic?

DoctorHelvetica

United States15034 Posts

January 23 2010 20:19 GMT

#1050

The kane]deth[ connection seems a bit stronger than that of flamewheel's or ghote's.

Jugan

United States1566 Posts

January 23 2010 20:30 GMT

#1051

On January 24 2010 04:52 ghote wrote:
super luck, unless he reveled it to someone in a pm, but i see no reason why he would do such a thing , most likely a lucky guess

bodyguards don't know who they are.

Incognito

United States2071 Posts

January 23 2010 20:32 GMT

#1052

On January 24 2010 05:30 Jugan wrote:

Show nested quote +

bodyguards don't know who they are.

bodyguards don't know who each other are, but they do know that they are bodyguards.

789

United States959 Posts

January 23 2010 20:32 GMT

#1053

Yeah I like the kane]deth[ one myself. But I may be biased towards that one since I'm the one who brought up the whole possible connection to the musical instrument. I don't know if I can objectively say that one is the strongest. I think the flamewheel-olympian one is decently strong too.

Well we still have over a day to make up our minds.

789

United States959 Posts

January 23 2010 21:33 GMT

#1054

This + Show Spoiler +

On January 23 2010 14:31 flamewheel91 wrote:

Show nested quote +

And this is not as strong of a correlation?

makes me think it is unlikely that both flamewheel and kane are both mafia. Why would flamewheel seemingly throw another mafia under the bus (assuming he is mafia for this point, not accusing) to attempt to save himself. I also read through the clues again, unfortunately I got nothing. I think it would be wise for everyone to take at least one more crack at the clues to spur some more discussion before decisions are made.

Jugan

United States1566 Posts

January 23 2010 21:34 GMT

#1055

On January 24 2010 05:32 Incognito wrote:

Show nested quote +

bodyguards don't know who each other are, but they do know that they are bodyguards.

oh i didn't know that. my bad! lol

DoctorHelvetica

United States15034 Posts

January 23 2010 21:59 GMT

#1056

On January 24 2010 06:33 789 wrote:
This + Show Spoiler +

On January 23 2010 14:31 flamewheel91 wrote:

Show nested quote +

And this is not as strong of a correlation?

The mafia could stage a disagreement to throw suspicion off of one or both of them, but it seems unlikely. Right now I feel, barely, that the clues are a bit stronger toward kane but I'm still pretty torn.

For the time being, my vote is on kane.

Hyperbola

United States2544 Posts

January 23 2010 22:01 GMT

#1057

On January 24 2010 06:33 789 wrote:
This + Show Spoiler +

On January 23 2010 14:31 flamewheel91 wrote:

Show nested quote +

And this is not as strong of a correlation?

You know there's such a thing as reverse logic? Throwing another mafia to the wolves will make people doubt he is guilty.
This last clue against kane is pretty strong. I'd say, for now, he actually is our best target.

789

United States959 Posts

January 23 2010 22:06 GMT

#1058

On January 24 2010 06:59 DoctorHelvetica wrote:

Show nested quote +

I'm going to hold out on voting until sometime tommorow. I don't want to end up flip flopping my vote as I change my mind like I did for the election lol. Yeah, right now I'm leaning on kane unless something changes. I think I'm out of ideas myself, but will still be open to ideas from others.

I've got one question though. Why are people pushing so hard for a double lynch on day 3? I'm not sure we have enough to be sure that we'll have 2 worthy suspects tomorrow as things stand now. I'm probably going to abstain from that vote for the time being. I'm not going to vote against that if it ends up what most people want to do. I'm not going to vote for it for now - unless someone manages to persuade me.

789

United States959 Posts

January 23 2010 22:11 GMT

#1059

I'm aware of the reverse psychology aspect, but it seems like a risky play for the mafia facing a possible double lynch day tomorrow. Eventhough I threw that out, I would not be opposed to lynching the 2 of them on consecutive days if that is where the strongest clue connections are.

Ser Aspi

France84 Posts

January 23 2010 22:22 GMT

#1060

So now I've read a few of the other games here and noticed a few common similarities. I encourage everyone else to do so. Without these games id be as lost as i was in the beginning.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=91680
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=103738
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=89338
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=66251

1. A lot of people discuss clues but they never use them to lynch until day 3 at the earlier. Even the best clue people so far as i can tell don't do much until day 3. Logically it makes sense because if clues early on are too easy then the mafia have no chance as more and more clues pile on. Also a lot of mafia try to hide by posting fake clue analysis. Because clue analysis is mostly speculation unless a master is doing it i dunno how to tell the fake from the legit. We should be careful of anyone who posts only clue analysis to 'blend in.' in the first game on the list a lot of the mafia posted bogus clue analysis and nobody suspected them because of it.

Overall The times people were dead set on killing someone based on a clue early on, they were always wrong. After seeing how wrong people were about clues, i don't trust clues this early at all. if you guys read how useless they were in other games, you probably won't either. Most if not all of the people that everyone is bandwagoning on from clues are going to be innocent. Mafia are prolly laughing at us this whole time.

2. The best players seem to catch a lot of mafia either by pms, logic, or traps in the thread. they also use a variety of plans like a list of people that medics can protect or have ways to confirm innocents. i dunno really how to do this but we should at least be trying instead of wasting time on clues. ill think about it some more and post ideas later.

We would be wise to learn from the mistakes and successes of those before us. I feel a little confident now after reading all of that :D We already repeated a mistake that's happened a lot in lynching t_co. Let's not fall victim to any more of that. No more worrying about clues!

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