EPTIncognito's TL Mafia XVI - Page 54
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On January 24 2010 07:22 Ser Aspi wrote: So now I've read a few of the other games here and noticed a few common similarities. I encourage everyone else to do so. Without these games id be as lost as i was in the beginning. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=91680 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=103738 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=89338 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=66251 1. A lot of people discuss clues but they never use them to lynch until day 3 at the earlier. Even the best clue people so far as i can tell don't do much until day 3. Logically it makes sense because if clues early on are too easy then the mafia have no chance as more and more clues pile on. Also a lot of mafia try to hide by posting fake clue analysis. Because clue analysis is mostly speculation unless a master is doing it i dunno how to tell the fake from the legit. We should be careful of anyone who posts only clue analysis to 'blend in.' in the first game on the list a lot of the mafia posted bogus clue analysis and nobody suspected them because of it. Overall The times people were dead set on killing someone based on a clue early on, they were always wrong. After seeing how wrong people were about clues, i don't trust clues this early at all. if you guys read how useless they were in other games, you probably won't either. Most if not all of the people that everyone is bandwagoning on from clues are going to be innocent. Mafia are prolly laughing at us this whole time. 2. The best players seem to catch a lot of mafia either by pms, logic, or traps in the thread. they also use a variety of plans like a list of people that medics can protect or have ways to confirm innocents. i dunno really how to do this but we should at least be trying instead of wasting time on clues. ill think about it some more and post ideas later. We would be wise to learn from the mistakes and successes of those before us. I feel a little confident now after reading all of that :D We already repeated a mistake that's happened a lot in lynching t_co. Let's not fall victim to any more of that. No more worrying about clues! You're making really good points here; I'm convinced for the time being. I'll take back my vote for the double lynch for now. I've been bandwagoning a bit hard right now, I'm still so upset about the MSL finals that I'm having difficulty really thinking about this game, hopefully I'll be able to think about something else besides how much I hate KESPA  Do you have a plan of action? If we hold off on the double-lynch where do we go from here? As far as both trapping mafia and confirming innocents. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Walking home from the post-election celebration, a slightly tipsy blue_arrow was whistling tunelessly to himself in the violet dusk. After a block or two, he noticed the sound of someone shuffling behind him. Though unnerved, he tried to shrug it off and started walking faster. The shuffling did not speed up in response, and blue_arrow felt safer the further he walked from his follower. As the streetlamps flickered on one by one, he took a quick peek behind him. One glimpse of his follower's frightening appearance was enough to clear his mind and convince him the Mafia was after him. Blue_arrow took off running. Sweat dripped off his forehead and fear spurred him to achieve near-Olympian speed as he sprinted for his life. He flew past several blocks in a few minutes, but always he could hear his attacker plodding relentlessly after him. Finally, the exhausted blue_arrow slumped against a lamppost, so worn out by his headlong dash that he couldn't move another step. All he could do was watch with mounting dread as his entirely unperturbed attacker caught up to blue_arrow and strangled him to death Instead of walking, Bill Murray drove home after the celebrations. When he arrived at his driveway, he was initially startled to see that his garage door had been forced open and didn't find any comfort when he looked within. It appeared as if a wild animal had been let loose inside his garage. Noticing that all the guns on his weapon rack were broken, Bill Murray started to panic. He turned around in a hurry, only to notice a broken rafter fall from the ceiling, landing right next to him. A high-pitched snicker immediately attracted his attention. He anxiously scanned the area, looking for a weapon. From the darkness, a figure appeared just outside the garage, advancing on him with what looked like a sledgehammer. The figure moved quickly, wearing a large helmet resembling an old rusty pail. The figure drew closer, and Bill Murray panicked and ran toward the door. Bill Murray tugged on the door, but it was locked. Bill Murray met his doom as the sledgehammer came down on his skull, ending his life. nothing really stands out to me in the third death scenario :o | ||
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Ser Aspi
France84 Posts
Figuring out common patterns seems to be the best use of clue analysis right now so that we can use them when the clues get better. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
The best ways I can think to confirm an innocent right now are a medic save and a clue analysis hitting hom. Both players involved in a medic will now know eachother are innocent. If a clue analysis hits home - the person who first proposed it is probably innocent. Your point about mafia doing fake clue analysis is certainly valid, but I don't think they would go to the point of incriminating a fellow mafia to appear cooperative. Then again, I could be wrong - the mafia could be being very tricky. That person who did the clue analysis would look clean for a very long time, perhaps indefinitely. It could be wroth sacrificing 1 mafia to ensure longevity of another. As for trapping a mafia, I don't have any surefire ways in mind yet. I'm hoping it ends up being sort of a "know a slip up when I see it" type of thing. Any PMs I have done have been pretty mild and unrevealing. There isn't anything I've said in a PM that I wouldn't have minded sharing openly - and it would appear like the same from the PMs I have received. I agree we should spend sometime giving suggestions to the blues on how to use their abilities. I believe this should be done in the open until we start getting a network of people that know eachother are innocents, like we tried to do in night 1. We can save these sort of discussions for the night phases, as when these are when those abilities are put into action. And finally, I agree with holding off on the double lynch for now. Unless something changes - which is impossible to know at this point, since we don't know what will happen with night 2 and day 3 clues- I don't think we have enough viable suspect to justify one. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
On January 24 2010 07:36 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Someone did this in BC's thread and I thought it worked well. I'm going to bold everything that jumps out to me as a possible clue: Walking home from the post-election celebration, a slightly tipsy blue_arrow was whistling tunelessly to himself in the violet dusk. After a block or two, he noticed the sound of someone shuffling behind him. Though unnerved, he tried to shrug it off and started walking faster. The shuffling did not speed up in response, and blue_arrow felt safer the further he walked from his follower. As the streetlamps flickered on one by one, he took a quick peek behind him. One glimpse of his follower's frightening appearance was enough to clear his mind and convince him the Mafia was after him. Blue_arrow took off running. Sweat dripped off his forehead and fear spurred him to achieve near-Olympian speed as he sprinted for his life. He flew past several blocks in a few minutes, but always he could hear his attacker plodding relentlessly after him. Finally, the exhausted blue_arrow slumped against a lamppost, so worn out by his headlong dash that he couldn't move another step. All he could do was watch with mounting dread as his entirely unperturbed attacker caught up to blue_arrow and strangled him to death Instead of walking, Bill Murray drove home after the celebrations. When he arrived at his driveway, he was initially startled to see that his garage door had been forced open and didn't find any comfort when he looked within. It appeared as if a wild animal had been let loose inside his garage. Noticing that all the guns on his weapon rack were broken, Bill Murray started to panic. He turned around in a hurry, only to notice a broken rafter fall from the ceiling, landing right next to him. A high-pitched snicker immediately attracted his attention. He anxiously scanned the area, looking for a weapon. From the darkness, a figure appeared just outside the garage, advancing on him with what looked like a sledgehammer. The figure moved quickly, wearing a large helmet resembling an old rusty pail. The figure drew closer, and Bill Murray panicked and ran toward the door. Bill Murray tugged on the door, but it was locked. Bill Murray met his doom as the sledgehammer came down on his skull, ending his life. nothing really stands out to me in the third death scenario :o I agree with these. A few I might add: From the first: "violet dusk" and "plodding relentlessly" From the second: "all the guns on his weapon rack were broken" This one could imply that the killer knew Bill Murray was a detective. This could point to some of the people he divulged his role to via PM - though we don't have a complete list and I doubt people are going to admit to it now. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
Meanwhile, long after his fellow townspeople had left, Abenson lingered at the site of the lynching to ponder the unsettling recent events affecting Liquidia. He was so deep in his reflections that it took him a while to become aware of a presence beside him, also contemplating the empty gallows. He turned to face his fellow observer and cleared his throat. "Sad, isn't it?" he ventured. "Yes," the man responded. "Many men will die here, before all this is done. One of them will be you." As the words filtered through Abenson's brain, he blinked in sudden, terrible comprehension and turned to run. But the other man was unfazed; he simply reached out and grabbed a handful of Abenson's shirt with a powerful grip, preventing him from getting anywhere. Before the thwarted Abenson could break free or lash out, his attacker drove his knee hard into Abenson's groin, causing him to double over in agony. With a few quick punches and kicks, Abenson was left mangled before his attacker left the lynch site as quietly as he had come. The main things that jump out at me are the physical nature of the attack (no weapons) and the quiet manner he approached and left. The quote could also end up being significant in someway later. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On January 24 2010 07:44 789 wrote: Well, the main reason I'm advocating clues right now is that I'm not sure if we have anyone worth lynching based on something other than clues. If I am wrong, I'd like to hear what people think - who to lynch and why. The best ways I can think to confirm an innocent right now are a medic save and a clue analysis hitting home. Both players involved in a medic will now know eachother are innocent. If a clue analysis hits home - the person who first proposed it is probably innocent. Your point about mafia doing fake clue analysis is certainly valid, but I don't think they would go to the point of incriminating a fellow mafia to appear cooperative. Then again, I could be wrong - the mafia could be being very tricky. That person who did the clue analysis would look clean for a very long time, perhaps indefinitely. It could be wroth sacrificing 1 mafia to ensure longevity of another. As for trapping a mafia, I don't have any surefire ways in mind yet. I'm hoping it ends up being sort of a "know a slip up when I see it" type of thing. Any PMs I have done have been pretty mild and unrevealing. There isn't anything I've said in a PM that I wouldn't have minded sharing openly - and it would appear like the same from the PMs I have received. I agree we should spend sometime giving suggestions to the blues on how to use their abilities. I believe this should be done in the open until we start getting a network of people that know eachother are innocents, like we tried to do in night 1. We can save these sort of discussions for the night phases, as when these are when those abilities are put into action. And finally, I agree with holding off on the double lynch for now. Unless something changes - which is impossible to know at this point, since we don't know what will happen with night 2 and day 3 clues- I don't think we have enough viable suspect to justify one. If someone is saved by a medic, they don't know who that person is. Also, a medic could potentially save a mafia from a hit by a vigilante. The biggest issue is detective communication. I liked the idea of a DT using a rolecheck to communicate through a confirmed green, but there is an issue that slipped my mind at the time. The mafia will simply hit that green to stop DT communication. One medic could cover that person indefinitely, but the mafia could double up hits or the medics may not even do it. The "best" way for a blue to communicate through the town is through an elected role, since neither me or meeple can be hit at night. However, meeple and myself could just as well be mafia so that's an extremely risky move as well. I think the best way for DT's to communicate is this: If a clue-check comes up positive (remember, it could be a vigilante) or a role-check flips mafia, instead of telling someone "Hey I'm a DT and this is what I got, can you tell the town for me since I know you're innocent?" which makes you look suspicious (you could be mafia pretending to be the detective) or putting that person in danger, use the power of hindsight to build a case. If you know 100% someone is mafia, you can look through all their posts, previous clues, and their entire history in the game through the perspective of them being mafia. With that, you can build a really strong case and probably convince the town to lynch said person. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On January 24 2010 07:47 789 wrote: I agree with these. A few I might add: From the first: "violet dusk" and "plodding relentlessly" From the second: "all the guns on his weapon rack were broken" This one could imply that the killer knew Bill Murray was a detective. This could point to some of the people he divulged his role to via PM - though we don't have a complete list and I doubt people are going to admit to it now. The moderator would have no way of knowing who Bill Murray was PMing with, and it's already been 100% confirmed clues point only toward names, signatures, and profiles. Nothing else. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
If the mafia hits three people tomorrow night, we'll have 2 sets of clues on one person, that'll make our job much easier. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
On January 24 2010 07:52 DoctorHelvetica wrote: The moderator would have no way of knowing who Bill Murray was PMing with, and it's already been 100% confirmed clues point only toward names, signatures, and profiles. Nothing else. Good point - my bad. | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
"Medic You have the ability to prevent one hit on a player of your choice during the night. Each paramedic can only stop one hit and as such if the number of mafia is greater than the number of paramedics on a player then that player will die. You will know if you saved the person. The person will know if he was saved. If you are protecting a veteran, and they are hit, your ability supercedes theirs. You cannot protect yourself. A medic can protect someone the night she/he gets killed. They won't be notified of their save though, since they are dead." Though is doesn't explicitly state it, I was assuming this meant the person who was saved would know the identity of the person who saved him. I'll PM a mod for clarification. You also have a good point about protecting a mafia from a vigilante hit - let's just hope that doesn't happen. | ||
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JohannesH
Finland1364 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 24 2010 07:58 789 wrote: I probably shoulda combined this with my last point. "Medic You have the ability to prevent one hit on a player of your choice during the night. Each paramedic can only stop one hit and as such if the number of mafia is greater than the number of paramedics on a player then that player will die. You will know if you saved the person. The person will know if he was saved. If you are protecting a veteran, and they are hit, your ability supercedes theirs. You cannot protect yourself. A medic can protect someone the night she/he gets killed. They won't be notified of their save though, since they are dead." Though is doesn't explicitly state it, I was assuming this meant the person who was saved would know the identity of the person who saved him. I'll PM a mod for clarification. You also have a good point about protecting a mafia from a vigilante hit - let's just hope that doesn't happen. If you are saved, you know that SOMEONE saved you (the PM is something like "You have taken a hit, but have been saved!"), but you are not told who saved you. The medic is also told that they have made a save (and obviously know who they protected in the first place). | ||
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789
United States959 Posts
On January 24 2010 08:39 Qatol wrote: If you are saved, you know that SOMEONE saved you (the PM is something like "You have taken a hit, but have been saved!"), but you are not told who saved you. The medic is also told that they have made a save (and obviously know who they protected in the first place). Alright man, thanks for the clarification. Guess I was wrong. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
First killer: tredmasta I can't ignore all the plodding at the same pace references. Second Killer: [kane]deth I'm not nearly as certain about this though, The discovery about the instrument was good, but it doesn't explain the animalistic nature of it... and I personall woudlnt' lynch on this. Third Killer: Mystlord He has an "eye I am the strongest" quote in his profile and which seems to fit this superhuman stregth attacker. Overall, I'm much more set on Killer #1's identity right now. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
tredmasta has been extremely inactive, as well as kane]deth[, which imo makes both them more suspicious. Hobbes has been somewhat active, although mostly defensive, but his behavior doesn't come across as suspicious. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On January 24 2010 07:24 Ser Aspi wrote: Also we have no reason to double lynch as of now. We have 0 suspects on any kind of reasonable evidence. If the DTs catch someone at night the vigis can handle it if they don't vigis don't have to. Otherwise we are just going to waste it and probably kill more greens if people keep trying to force red herrings on pplz. We have plenty of suspects... by the time we get to use our double lynch there will be 8 clues at our disposal, almost certainly enough for two lynches. If we don;t start taking action now, we're going to be sunk later on. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On January 24 2010 09:31 DoctorHelvetica wrote: We have a large pool of suspects right now, based on clues. Both Hobbes and flamewheel91 also connect to clues from the Day 2 post as well as kane/tredmasta/Mystlord. tredmasta has been extremely inactive, as well as kane]deth[, which imo makes both them more suspicious. Hobbes has been somewhat active, although mostly defensive, but his behavior doesn't come across as suspicious. At this point is there a reason you pick kan]deth[ over tredmasta or the others? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On January 24 2010 09:39 meeple wrote: At this point is there a reason you pick kan]deth[ over tredmasta or the others? I'm personally more convinced by the connection, but it's all pretty close imo | ||
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