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I don't agree that t_co was entirely unbeneficial to the town, but what's done is done. In any case, it's most likely for our first lynch to be a town member, since we have so little information.
I hope our medics and detectives make wise choices, and we work with the new set of clues we get tonight. If our mods are mafia-friendly, however, the clues will point to others in the mafia, and thus can't be used with our current clues, but whatever.
I do think one of DrH, meeple, and citi.zen is likely to be mafia, though, as I still believe the benefits to the mafia in getting an elected uncheckable member is far greater than the benefits of the town being confused by accusing the other elected members of being mafia when none of them area. Actually given that citi.zen basically got no votes...one of DrH or meeple, perhaps?
I think the town should watch closely.
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it occurred to me now that meeple/DrH are immune to nightkill, for at least until all the bodyguards die, it might be useful for them to claim what role you have.
I am not currently demanding that you guys claim, but I want to see what others think of this idea.
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Bill, I still don't know why you think you're a prime candidate to be nightkilled, compared to the rest of the town members. I actually don't think your contribution particularly stands out. Posts like this don't really add to the discussion.
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Well, I'm still suspicious of the election candidates. Sure it's a risk for the mafia member who runs, but on the other hand, the mafia can't stay below the radar the entire game. At least some of their members needs to get involved and actively participate, which will put those members under scrutiny. And if their participating portion of the mafia group is under scrutiny/at risk of being found out, why not grab some power along with it?
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I'll explain my votes now just in case this becomes important for the future.
Originally I put a vote for meeple as I'm a believer in "townies shouldn't abstain because they aren't unsure - they should leave a paper trail that can be analyzed later" and I wanted DrH as MAYOR, so wanted to see if meeple could become the top vote-getter.
I changed my vote to t_co as I was getting uncomfortable at how meeple/DrH agreed on lots of things and t_co was a likely target, and wanted to keep t_co around as he was an active participant.
I abstained because as others pointed out, some of t_co's arguments weren't coherent and that it was a risk he wouldn't use his powers in a way that would most benefit the town.
I changed my vote to meeple when he was one vote away from getting the top vote, in case anyone else wanted to switch what role DrH or meeple would get (another vote for meeple would have him as sheriff and meeple as mayor).
Actually, I would very much like explanations on how people voted, especially players who haven't even posted ONCE yet. Even if it's something as simple as "I saw his banner as putting in effort."
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On January 22 2010 11:56 Zona wrote:
I changed my vote to meeple when he was one vote away from getting the top vote, in case anyone else wanted to switch what role DrH or meeple would get (another vote for meeple would have him as sheriff and meeple as mayor).
Err, another vote for meeple would have him as sheriff and DrH as mayor
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I think everyone has a chance of being killed (not that anyone deserves medic protection moreso than others), except our elected officials - so I suggest that if anyone has any suspicions or useful ideas for the town to post them before 9pm est tomorrow.
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I really think detectives or medics should NOT reveal themselves to anyone else at this point in the game, except for detectives who have confirmed who they're talking to is town (even then, a tiny godfather risk). The risk of revealing to a mafia member is there.
Actually I question the judgement of the detective that revealed him/herself to DrH, as there's no guarantee DrH is town.
I agree with this, however:
On January 22 2010 13:11 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
As far as meeple's voting power, I think he really needs to justify his votes.
Alternatively, we can demand that meeple reveals who he plans to vote for, then other townies adjust their votes so that his vote is effectively strength one.
For example, if players A and B are lynch candidates, and meeple wants to vote for A, have him vote for A, but also switch one NORMAL voter from A to B, then meeple has effectively added one vote to A (as A gets +3 -1 vote, and B gets +1 vote, so the difference between them is greater by one). Of course if there's 3 people up for lynch it gets more complicated.
Quickstriker, I would prefer if you didn't post in this thread - there's already so much to read and re-read when we want to re-examine things.
Finally, if there were NO medics - then if I were mafia, I would want to eliminate the people who are generating the most discussion, regardless of who they are suspicious of, just to stop the town from generating more information. However, since there are medics, the mafia need to guess who will be medic-protected and adjust accordingly. And they also can't eliminate all town members who discuss a lot, because then any remaining active players will be exposed as mafia. Still, I hope the medics keep this in mind.
There are some methods for coordination that don't require revealing. For example, one idea is that detectives rolecheck the player below them on the player list. If town, that would give them someone to talk to. However, I'm not convinced that using the rolecheck early is the way to go (it might be).
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I don't think the downside of incarcerating a blue is that much, until the point where medics, for whatever reason, become very good at predicting hits. Also, if you announce you are incarcerating someone in the thread, then the mafia know not to even attempt to kill them.
There is also a second use for incarceration, that is to incarcerate potential mafia when there's an odd number of mafia left, where if you are correct, kill power will go down by one. But with medics around, we won't be sure whether or not who you targetted was mafia. So using it for protection is probably a better idea, but do NOT announce beforehand.
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You know what, it may be useful for detectives to use at least one of the role checks early.
Right now, if they get a successful clue check, it's hard for them to convince the town of it without outing themselves, since we've already discussed the first set of clues ad nauseam without any conclusions. However, if they check someone and aren't too unlucky, they'll hit a town member and then can share with them safely (although the town member they contact will not necessarily be able to trust the detective). And if we establish a method of choosing which player to check (i.e. check the player below them in the player list) then they won't waste/overlap checks.
But the risk of that method is that if a mafia member is not contacted, then they will know the person above them is not a detective. Hmm. More to think about.
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Okay - upside to some regular method of choosing who to check - no wasted checks.
Downside - risk revealing to mafia which players are NOT detectives.
Or, detectives can choose on their own who to check. In this case they reveal nothing to the mafia, but multiple people checking the same target will "waste" some checks. Although this might not entirely be a waste depending on how the game plays out.
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Yes, I totally agree that detectives should reveal themselves to who they check if the check turns up town, the godfather risk is low. If detectives find more than one medic, yes they should coordinate. But the medic needs to be careful that mafia members aren't fishing to find who the medic is.
At this point without coordination, a medic protection overlap is possible, but remember that even if medic protection was evenly spread out they won't necessarily choose who the mafia will target. I don't think that we can create a plan that will really guarantee that a medic will stop a hit at this point in the game.
Actually, the more I think about it the more I come to the conclusion that detectives should use some of their role checks early in the game to build a base of people they can talk to privately.
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Yes - but if the detective has checked someone to be town, the detective can reveal him/herself safely to the person he/she has checked.
(Of course, the person being revealed to needs to be skeptical, as the "detective" who contacted them might be a mafia member.)
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I agree it is a risk for a mafia to claim to be a detective, but just because it's a risk doesn't mean we should assume they won't try it.
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This should be obvious, but I want repeat this again just in case:
Medics, do not protect DrHelvetica or meeple, as they have bodyguard protection.
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On January 19 2010 10:22 Incognito wrote:
This is a semi-open setup. Roles will be disclosed, but role counts will remain hidden.
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hey I was planning on reading/posting after the MSL finals, but the thing stretched out a lot longer than I expected (in a bad way) and I have a very sour taste in my mouth and will forgo posting until later.
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Alright, I'm really late back to this party. There's not much original clue analysis I can bring to the table being so late, but there's one thing I want to mention. We don't know the style in how incognito is creating clues, since this is his first game. Looking over all the other games in the mafia forum, there's been two primary styles in creating clues. One style, was that a list of adjectives was made from player's profiles, and clues drawn from that. If this is how our mod does things, our current approach works well.
Unfortunately, this is the minority. The majority of past games had mods create a "persona" or "character" based on an amalgam of a player's profile, then create clues from that persona. (So one degree removed.) And there were some crazy connections that I don't think anyone would have guessed correctly. For example, if I wasn't reading too quickly and missing things, one game had a player with a lion in their profile, and the mod decided "Lion = Hunter" to create the "persona" for the player. But then the mod went further and made this a Hunter class from WoW, which made all the clues unguessable from my point of view, impossible to connect to the lion in the profile.
I really don't know what to do with clues for now. Thin knife = scalpel seems to be a FAIR clue. If the olympic thing really was a clue and not a red herring, it seems like it would be too obvious? I hope we somehow hit at least one mafia sometime in the future so we can try to see which clues are related and get a sense of how the mods are creating these clues. As others have mentioned, reading people by their interactions and votes is probably BETTER right now.
As for Bill the detective dying, it might have been someone he talked to, but it could have been luck too - the other game lost the detective to the day 1 lynch! To me it looks like the mafia decided that many of the active players would be protected and went for targets they thought likely had no protection. I disagree that the bodyguard is a large loss. A bodyguard is a loss ONLY if we're sure the elected officials are town members. If we aren't sure I'd actually prefer that the elected officials lose all of their protection.
Don't take comfort in the relatively large numbers of town members alive - we likely lose members at a rate of 3 a night, at least for now, each day only have a CHANCE of getting rid of 1 mafia (with the exception of the 2 double lynches). So our buffer is not that large.
I am in favor of double lynching, as this increases the proportion of deaths that are not caused solely by mafia, and might (or might not) bring the day of lower mafia KP closer. I'm really concerned about the high mafia KP right now.
I still haven't decided who to vote on - but since I don't have any solid ideas as to who might be mafia based on interaction, I'll choose between the three sorta-solid clue connections.
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kane also has no posts since the game started?
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In case it becomes important later on, for the record, I only exchanged one PM (one each direction) with Bill which contained no information at all (well he did beg for medic protection in private as well), as I assumed he was just a silly paranoid player.
Since 789 asked for the postcounts, here they are. I stopped them because I didn't want people posting crap for the sake of getting a higher postcount to look more active in these. But yeah, some players still have virtually no posts.
DoctorHelvetica: 217
meeple: 169
789: 129
citi.zen: 81
Bill Murray: 79
Zona: 59
Abenson: 48
flamewheel91: 43
t_co: 41
Jugan: 33
StimiLant: 32
ghote: 24
[NyC]HoBbes: 23
Ng5: 21
blue_arrow: 20
CynanMachae: 19
Nikoner: 19
Ser Aspi: 18
Mystlord: 17
The_Master: 12
JohannesH: 8
Phrujbaz: 7
keit: 7
Hyperbola: 6
Faronel: 5
Jayme: 5
tredmasta: 4
magicbullet: 3
dinmsab: 3
derfboy: 1
Fallen_arK: 1
kane]deth[: 1
skronch: 1
ohN: 0
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EPT
