EPT[Psychology] Overconfidence - Page 7
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iamke55
United States2806 Posts
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intotherainx
United States504 Posts
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Mista_Masta
Netherlands557 Posts
On July 31 2009 15:13 iamke55 wrote: The goal of this test is to get exactly 9 out of 10 right. 10 shows you are underconfident in your abilities or know too much trivia for your own good, less than 9 means you are too confident in yourself. This is just a pride thing. Actually this is not entirely true, because even if you are somehow able to quantify exactly what '90% confidence' means into an estimate for lower and upper bounds, there's still a probability that you won't get 9 out of 10, even if your confidence-interval is exactly correct. | ||
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iamke55
United States2806 Posts
On July 31 2009 18:33 Mista_Masta wrote: Actually this is not entirely true, because even if you are somehow able to quantify exactly what '90% confidence' means into an estimate for lower and upper bounds, there's still a probability that you won't get 9 out of 10, even if your confidence-interval is exactly correct. You're right, the results of 10 such questions doesn't tell much unless someone got a significant number of questions wrong. There's no margin of error in this experiment at all when using 90% as 9 out of 10 instead of 900 out of 1000. | ||
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Burre
Sweden154 Posts
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Garnet
Vietnam9056 Posts
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Starparty
Sweden1963 Posts
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Nyovne
Netherlands19141 Posts
 Long live NG and Discovery channels. | ||
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Masamune
Canada3401 Posts
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Masamune
Canada3401 Posts
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Eniram
Sudan3166 Posts
On August 01 2009 04:31 Masamune wrote: Oh yeah, 8 right. My intervals for the London to Tokyo distance just made it as well haha. How is a Boeing so heavy though, I didn't realize how heavy they can be....that and someone should give those elephants an award for carrying babies for that fucking long. Yeah... Lets give elephants awards... | ||
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Final_Judicator
Germany85 Posts
On July 31 2009 16:42 intotherainx wrote: thanks for sharing a well-known social psychology test so people stop flaming Fixed. And it should really be done in metric system. Seriously. Regards, Final_Judicator | ||
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Johnny B
United States76 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [Metric Answers] + 1.) 39 Years 2.) 6,738 km 3.) 13 Countries 4.) 39 Books 5.) 3,476 km 6.) 180,000 kg 7.) 1756 8.) 645 Days 9.) 9,590 km 10.) 11,033 m Now nobody has to convert to English anymore! + Show Spoiler + And we can all quit whining! + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2009 00:55 nK)Duke wrote: make this in the metric system and this test proves nothing but useless knowledge + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2009 03:20 Geo.Rion wrote: And i had problems with counting in pounds, feets and miles, cuz around here everybody always uses kg, m, km and so on + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2009 04:16 bN` wrote: Uh, reading is tech. I just looked at the questions and went wtf this is really hard. After figuring it out I got 7/10 inside the margin. Missed 6. 9. 2.. Metric system ftw :> + Show Spoiler + On July 31 2009 06:33 Mista_Masta wrote: By the way, I was slightly annoyed that you asked for non-metric estimates, as that meant I had to convert my estimates to non-metric. Since I'm too lazy to get a calculator, this may have further influenced my amount of wrong estimates. + Show Spoiler + On August 02 2009 03:19 Final_Judicator wrote: And it should really be done in metric system. Seriously. Regards, Final_Judicator | ||
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Final_Judicator
Germany85 Posts
 Nice one, Johnny B. Regards, Final_Judicator | ||
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CharlieMurphy
United States22895 Posts
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azndsh
United States4447 Posts
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VIB
Brazil3567 Posts
On August 02 2009 06:38 azndsh wrote: And when you came to that conclusion your own overconfidence blinded you from considering that maybe, just maybe... It is you who cannot understand how inefficient this experiment is for measuring confidence, and not the ones saying it's wrong. if anything, this thread has proved that people are overconfident in their reading comprehension skills and/or ability to understand social experiments. but after all this is the internet, so I guess this is anything but surprising.  | ||
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Chef
10810 Posts
On August 02 2009 06:38 azndsh wrote: if anything, this thread has proved that people are overconfident in their reading comprehension skills and/or ability to understand social experiments. but after all this is the internet, so I guess this is anything but surprising. Thank god you wrote it for yourself and not them, or it might need to be revised. It is a well-known fact in that people tend to think that they know more than they really do.  | ||
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azndsh
United States4447 Posts
On August 02 2009 06:58 VIB wrote: And when you came to that conclusion your own overconfidence blinded you from considering that maybe, just maybe... It is you who cannot understand how inefficient this experiment is for measuring confidence, and not the ones saying it's wrong. on the contrary... people not being able to read correctly and this experiment being inefficient can both be true at the same time. maybe, just maybe... I do understand the inadequacies of asking people online to follow directions and evaluating themselves, but was nevertheless a little disappointed by how badly people misunderstood it and the number of smartass comments that followed. | ||
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VIB
Brazil3567 Posts
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