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On February 16 2025 07:09 maybenexttime wrote:
We do have the means to help Ukraine this war but we'd have to get our hands dirty and bloody. People need to realize that, especially with Trump in power and Putin emboldened, we can either win this war in Ukraine or fight it on our territory in a few years.
I basically sympathize with your perspective. But I don't understand is how this Ukraine campaign could possibly embolden Russia to continue to attack other countries. Ukraine is a very poor country with a big Russia friendly population. Yet it has been a disaster and much more difficult for Russia than anybody expected. Russia expected the war to be over in three days and from what I have read, the Western intelligence thought more or less the same thing. Russia is stuck in a war that has been a massive disaster.
But people talk about trying to find a deal with Russia as if it were similar to the appeasement strategy during WW2.
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I hope Europe will take some drastic measures tomorrow at the Paris meeting. You have to stick it to Putin and to Trump where it hurts. From what I heard from JD Vance, Trump is more likely waging war on liberal democracy itself not only in the US, but in the EU as well. Trump will soon understand that fucking with your closest allies is not a wise decision.
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On February 16 2025 07:51 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 07:09 maybenexttime wrote:
We do have the means to help Ukraine this war but we'd have to get our hands dirty and bloody. People need to realize that, especially with Trump in power and Putin emboldened, we can either win this war in Ukraine or fight it on our territory in a few years. I basically sympathize with your perspective. But I don't understand is how this Ukraine campaign could possibly embolden Russia to continue to attack other countries. Ukraine is a very poor country with a big Russia friendly population. Yet it has been a disaster and much more difficult for Russia than anybody expected. Russia expected the war to be over in three days and from what I have read, the Western intelligence thought more or less the same thing. Russia is stuck in a war that has been a massive disaster. But people talk about trying to find a deal with Russia as if it were similar to the appeasement strategy during WW2.
Just because from a rational point of view such an invasion would be doomed to fail doesn't mean that a delusional dictator wouldn't launch it. Especially with the US withdrawing from NATO and turning on us. I'm not saying that Putin is emboldened because his Special Military Operation is going smoothly. It's a terrible mess. But his hybrid war against liberal democracies is going spectacularly well.
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Sure seems like Europe is in for a rude awakening. Seems they turned a blind eye to the crimes of the US for too long, now it's catching/caught up with them.
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On February 16 2025 08:02 GreenHorizons wrote:
Sure seems like Europe is in for a rude awakening. Seems they turned a blind eye to the crimes of the US for too long, now it's caught up with them.
What crimes? I think we have rather continued our own moronic defense and energy policies for too long.
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On February 16 2025 08:17 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 08:02 GreenHorizons wrote:
Sure seems like Europe is in for a rude awakening. Seems they turned a blind eye to the crimes of the US for too long, now it's caught up with them. What crimes? I think we have rather continued our own moronic defense and energy policies for too long.
Basically ~90% of US foreign policy for the last 70 years or so.
Coups, wars, torture, immiseration, etc. Europe is about to have it all come home again. Hope you have a "Greatest Generation" on standby.
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Yeah, maybe if you ignore all the good that the US has done in the world.
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On February 16 2025 08:28 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 08:17 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:02 GreenHorizons wrote:
Sure seems like Europe is in for a rude awakening. Seems they turned a blind eye to the crimes of the US for too long, now it's caught up with them. What crimes? I think we have rather continued our own moronic defense and energy policies for too long. Basically ~90% of US foreign policy for the last 70 years or so. Coups, wars, torture, immiseration, etc. Europe is about to have it all come home again. Hope you have a "Greatest Generation" on standby.
Assuming that you are right, how is it coming back to haunt us?
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On February 16 2025 08:38 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 08:28 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 08:17 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:02 GreenHorizons wrote:
Sure seems like Europe is in for a rude awakening. Seems they turned a blind eye to the crimes of the US for too long, now it's caught up with them. What crimes? I think we have rather continued our own moronic defense and energy policies for too long. Basically ~90% of US foreign policy for the last 70 years or so. Coups, wars, torture, immiseration, etc. Europe is about to have it all come home again. Hope you have a "Greatest Generation" on standby. Assuming that you are right, how is it coming back to haunt us?
If it isn't intuitive, I'm not sure it's easy to explain.
If you think about all the death and suffering inflicted by the US (or West generally) on oppressed people throughout the Global South and beyond. All that has been rationalized as some variation of "unfortunate but necessary", or "lesser evil", "collateral damage", or "spreading freedom and democracy", "self-defense" (Israel), or whatever. That's all coming back to Europe like it did in the 30's/40's.
If you happen to be a fan of fascism and have the sorta look/attitude/circumstances that thrives in that space, this might be great news. If not, Zelenskyy's message was pretty dire.
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On February 16 2025 06:34 Sent. wrote:
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The idea that the US will stop selling LNG to Europe is extremely silly. Lifting American sanctions on Russia also shouldn't mean much because the US wasn't a key market to Russian goods and it won't become one anytime soon. American military involvement and diplomatic leadership are the only essential parts.
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US sanctions on Russia is why they have a hard time trading, they are locked out of bank exchanges. If that lifts they can pretty easily buy the chips that go through 3 parties right now and get much better oil prices. Basically improving Russian economy situation a lot, when it is the major pressure point on them now. Extending the point where Russia feels they have to negotiate in good faith from 6-12 months out to 24 months out.
Russia even has a hard time trading with China due to US sanctions. That stops and they can much more easily buy Chinese stuff on the open market. If US pivots enough China might even support Russia with military sales, though I doubt that will happen since it would be seen very negative by EU.
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On February 16 2025 02:22 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
1. Trump have already proposed such a bad minerals deal with Ukraine that they had to refuse (50% forever, no clear commitment). All subsequent attempts will be the same so they can say Ukraine is ungrateful and does not want to deal. Even though they could easily get 500bn of rare earth metals for support untill victory.
The mineral deal was supposed to be a payment for past deliveries.
Predictably neither side will commit much to the future at this stage, so it was always a non starter.
And in the meantime US has asked Europe for peacekeeping commitments to Ukraine.
Arrogance of the move aside, I wonder how they hope to get Russia to agree to NATO troops on the DMZ.
They started the whole war to avoid that outcome.
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On February 16 2025 09:06 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 08:38 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:28 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 08:17 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:02 GreenHorizons wrote:
Sure seems like Europe is in for a rude awakening. Seems they turned a blind eye to the crimes of the US for too long, now it's caught up with them. What crimes? I think we have rather continued our own moronic defense and energy policies for too long. Basically ~90% of US foreign policy for the last 70 years or so. Coups, wars, torture, immiseration, etc. Europe is about to have it all come home again. Hope you have a "Greatest Generation" on standby. Assuming that you are right, how is it coming back to haunt us? If it isn't intuitive, I'm not sure it's easy to explain. If you think about all the death and suffering inflicted by the US (or West generally) on oppressed people throughout the Global South and beyond. All that has been rationalized as some variation of "unfortunate but necessary", or "lesser evil", "collateral damage", or "spreading freedom and democracy", "self-defense" (Israel), or whatever. That's all coming back to Europe like it did in the 30's/40's. If you happen to be a fan of fascism and have the sorta look/attitude/circumstances that thrives in that space, this might be great news. If not, Zelenskyy's message was pretty dire.
I'm not a fan of fascism, but whatever.
Is your point that the "global south" is going to attack Europe because of the US' history of foreign policy? How exactly are we seeing that now? It seems to me that people from the global south are more or less equally violent wherever they go - be it Great Britain (long colonial history) or Sweden (no colonial history but long history of humanitarian policies and foreign aid). And the "Global South" is basically a non player in general that laggs more and more behind the rest of the world - just compare Israel to the more or less failed states that surround it.
I also don't understand what Zelensky's warning that you linked about the US not wanting to defend Europe anymore has to do with this imagined uprising by the "Global South". It's a reflection of a shift in the great power competition between the US and Russia/China.
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On February 16 2025 17:12 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 09:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 08:38 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:28 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 08:17 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:02 GreenHorizons wrote:
Sure seems like Europe is in for a rude awakening. Seems they turned a blind eye to the crimes of the US for too long, now it's caught up with them. What crimes? I think we have rather continued our own moronic defense and energy policies for too long. Basically ~90% of US foreign policy for the last 70 years or so. Coups, wars, torture, immiseration, etc. Europe is about to have it all come home again. Hope you have a "Greatest Generation" on standby. Assuming that you are right, how is it coming back to haunt us? If it isn't intuitive, I'm not sure it's easy to explain. If you think about all the death and suffering inflicted by the US (or West generally) on oppressed people throughout the Global South and beyond. All that has been rationalized as some variation of "unfortunate but necessary", or "lesser evil", "collateral damage", or "spreading freedom and democracy", "self-defense" (Israel), or whatever. That's all coming back to Europe like it did in the 30's/40's. If you happen to be a fan of fascism and have the sorta look/attitude/circumstances that thrives in that space, this might be great news. If not, Zelenskyy's message was pretty dire. I'm not a fan of fascism, but whatever. Is your point that the "global south" is going to attack Europe because of the US' history of foreign policy? + Show Spoiler +How exactly are we seeing that now? It seems to me that people from the global south are more or less equally violent wherever they go - be it Great Britain (long colonial history) or Sweden (no colonial history but long history of humanitarian policies and foreign aid). And the "Global South" is basically a non player in general that laggs more and more behind the rest of the world - just compare Israel to the more or less failed states that surround it.
I also don't understand what Zelensky's warning that you linked about the US not wanting to defend Europe anymore has to do with this imagined uprising by the "Global South". It's a reflection of a shift in the great power competition between the US and Russia/China. No. I mean, like in the 1930's and 40's, Western foreign policy is coming back to Europe to be domestic policy by way of other Europeans.
Except there's no one to save you Europeans from yourselves this time.
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On February 16 2025 07:53 raga4ka wrote:
I hope Europe will take some drastic measures tomorrow at the Paris meeting. You have to stick it to Putin and to Trump where it hurts. From what I heard from JD Vance, Trump is more likely waging war on liberal democracy itself not only in the US, but in the EU as well. Trump will soon understand that fucking with your closest allies is not a wise decision.
Europe is in no position to stick it to anyone now. Its over. The past few decades of subservient and sycophant behavior towards the US from European countries (to various degrees) has left Europe at a historically weak state.
You are not an ally, you are a vasal. The economic and military burden of doubling down in Ukraine at any cost has ruined the prosperity of many EU countries for generations to come. Its brought the US to the point where it cannot afford to have vassals anymore, the coffers are empty, the system is rotten and if the United States doesn’t lose the heavy baggage it will be lucky to keep second place in the fast approaching multi polar World
Europe doesn’t have anyone else to blame but itself and the gross incompetence of its unelected leaders for the position it’s in right now. Nobody made Europe ruin its economy and lose energy security, nobody made Europe lose all security independence. That’s on Europe. Europe doesn’t get a seat at the table because Europe isn’t relevant anymore.
The United States, whatever your views on it might be, is an independent country with institutions working in its self interest and trying to pick up the pieces from the incredible mess that’s been left after the last 4 years. There is a new administration which has a popular mandate and the will to become an actual force for peace in the World, they know more than anyone with their tens of agencies and trillion-dollar surveillance apparatus what the real situation on the ground is and what needs to be done. Europe doesn’t get a seat at the table the same way a child in kindergarden that hasn’t been told no enough in its life doesn’t get to make big decisions in his or her life.
They need to grow up a little and stop throwing tantrums. Maybe then they will be taken seriously.
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On February 16 2025 09:08 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 06:34 Sent. wrote:
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The idea that the US will stop selling LNG to Europe is extremely silly. Lifting American sanctions on Russia also shouldn't mean much because the US wasn't a key market to Russian goods and it won't become one anytime soon. American military involvement and diplomatic leadership are the only essential parts.
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US sanctions on Russia is why they have a hard time trading, they are locked out of bank exchanges. If that lifts they can pretty easily buy the chips that go through 3 parties right now and get much better oil prices. Basically improving Russian economy situation a lot, when it is the major pressure point on them now. Extending the point where Russia feels they have to negotiate in good faith from 6-12 months out to 24 months out. Russia even has a hard time trading with China due to US sanctions. That stops and they can much more easily buy Chinese stuff on the open market. If US pivots enough China might even support Russia with military sales, though I doubt that will happen since it would be seen very negative by EU.
Okay that's true. When I was making my post I was thinking strictly about Russian-American trade relations and put everything else (like stoping others from trading with Russia) in the "diplomatic leadership" part. My mistake.
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On February 16 2025 19:29 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 07:53 raga4ka wrote:
I hope Europe will take some drastic measures tomorrow at the Paris meeting. You have to stick it to Putin and to Trump where it hurts. From what I heard from JD Vance, Trump is more likely waging war on liberal democracy itself not only in the US, but in the EU as well. Trump will soon understand that fucking with your closest allies is not a wise decision. Europe is in no position to stick it to anyone now. Its over. The past few decades of subservient and sycophant behavior towards the US from European countries (to various degrees) has left Europe at a historically weak state. You are not an ally, you are a vasal. The economic and military burden of doubling down in Ukraine at any cost has ruined the prosperity of many EU countries for generations to come. Its brought the US to the point where it cannot afford to have vassals anymore, the coffers are empty, the system is rotten and if the United States doesn’t lose the heavy baggage it will be lucky to keep second place in the fast approaching multi polar World Europe doesn’t have anyone else to blame but itself and the gross incompetence of its unelected leaders for the position it’s in right now. Nobody made Europe ruin its economy and lose energy security, nobody made Europe lose all security independence. That’s on Europe. Europe doesn’t get a seat at the table because Europe isn’t relevant anymore. The United States, whatever your views on it might be, is an independent country with institutions working in its self interest and trying to pick up the pieces from the incredible mess that’s been left after the last 4 years. There is a new administration which has a popular mandate and the will to become an actual force for peace in the World, they know more than anyone with their tens of agencies and trillion-dollar surveillance apparatus what the real situation on the ground is and what needs to be done. Europe doesn’t get a seat at the table the same way a child in kindergarden that hasn’t been told no enough in its life doesn’t get to make big decisions in his or her life. They need to grow up a little and stop throwing tantrums. Maybe then they will be taken seriously.
How are protests going in Serbia? People in Serbia are protesting, because they don't want Aleksandar Vučić's corrupt pro-Putin presidency and they want to join the EU. Your government fell, next to fall is Vučić. Putin must be stopped at all costs, even if Europe has to pay a huge economic price, then so be it. Appending dictators Is only ok for Russian trolls and Putin's lackeys. In the free world, dictators should be pushed back to their ruin of a country by force.
What multipolar world are you talking about? Russia is not a factor, It's just a regional power. On one side there is the US with its allies. Only China is a global economic power, but even backed by Russia, the two of them can't do much, even if you add Iran and North Korea, It's the same. The world is still run by the US together with their allies at least for now.
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On February 16 2025 19:26 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 17:12 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 09:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 08:38 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:28 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 08:17 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:02 GreenHorizons wrote:
Sure seems like Europe is in for a rude awakening. Seems they turned a blind eye to the crimes of the US for too long, now it's caught up with them. What crimes? I think we have rather continued our own moronic defense and energy policies for too long. Basically ~90% of US foreign policy for the last 70 years or so. Coups, wars, torture, immiseration, etc. Europe is about to have it all come home again. Hope you have a "Greatest Generation" on standby. Assuming that you are right, how is it coming back to haunt us? If it isn't intuitive, I'm not sure it's easy to explain. If you think about all the death and suffering inflicted by the US (or West generally) on oppressed people throughout the Global South and beyond. All that has been rationalized as some variation of "unfortunate but necessary", or "lesser evil", "collateral damage", or "spreading freedom and democracy", "self-defense" (Israel), or whatever. That's all coming back to Europe like it did in the 30's/40's. If you happen to be a fan of fascism and have the sorta look/attitude/circumstances that thrives in that space, this might be great news. If not, Zelenskyy's message was pretty dire. I'm not a fan of fascism, but whatever. Is your point that the "global south" is going to attack Europe because of the US' history of foreign policy? + Show Spoiler +How exactly are we seeing that now? It seems to me that people from the global south are more or less equally violent wherever they go - be it Great Britain (long colonial history) or Sweden (no colonial history but long history of humanitarian policies and foreign aid). And the "Global South" is basically a non player in general that laggs more and more behind the rest of the world - just compare Israel to the more or less failed states that surround it.
I also don't understand what Zelensky's warning that you linked about the US not wanting to defend Europe anymore has to do with this imagined uprising by the "Global South". It's a reflection of a shift in the great power competition between the US and Russia/China. No. I mean, like in the 1930's and 40's, Western foreign policy is coming back to Europe to be domestic policy by way of other Europeans. Except there's no one to save you Europeans from yourselves this time.
Currently this is more of a danger for the US than Europe. It is obviously likely that all the drone and AI technology currently tested on Palestinians will be adapted to be applied to protesters in the US fairly soon. In terms of 1930-1940 Europe you would need a foreign invader like Germany was, and the only candidate right now is Russia, who isn't very scary.
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On February 16 2025 21:11 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 19:26 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 17:12 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 09:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 08:38 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:28 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 08:17 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:02 GreenHorizons wrote:
Sure seems like Europe is in for a rude awakening. Seems they turned a blind eye to the crimes of the US for too long, now it's caught up with them. What crimes? I think we have rather continued our own moronic defense and energy policies for too long. Basically ~90% of US foreign policy for the last 70 years or so. Coups, wars, torture, immiseration, etc. Europe is about to have it all come home again. Hope you have a "Greatest Generation" on standby. Assuming that you are right, how is it coming back to haunt us? If it isn't intuitive, I'm not sure it's easy to explain. If you think about all the death and suffering inflicted by the US (or West generally) on oppressed people throughout the Global South and beyond. All that has been rationalized as some variation of "unfortunate but necessary", or "lesser evil", "collateral damage", or "spreading freedom and democracy", "self-defense" (Israel), or whatever. That's all coming back to Europe like it did in the 30's/40's. If you happen to be a fan of fascism and have the sorta look/attitude/circumstances that thrives in that space, this might be great news. If not, Zelenskyy's message was pretty dire. I'm not a fan of fascism, but whatever. Is your point that the "global south" is going to attack Europe because of the US' history of foreign policy? + Show Spoiler +How exactly are we seeing that now? It seems to me that people from the global south are more or less equally violent wherever they go - be it Great Britain (long colonial history) or Sweden (no colonial history but long history of humanitarian policies and foreign aid). And the "Global South" is basically a non player in general that laggs more and more behind the rest of the world - just compare Israel to the more or less failed states that surround it.
I also don't understand what Zelensky's warning that you linked about the US not wanting to defend Europe anymore has to do with this imagined uprising by the "Global South". It's a reflection of a shift in the great power competition between the US and Russia/China. No. I mean, like in the 1930's and 40's, Western foreign policy is coming back to Europe to be domestic policy by way of other Europeans. Except there's no one to save you Europeans from yourselves this time. Currently this is more of a danger for the US than Europe. It is obviously likely that all the drone and AI technology currently tested on Palestinians will be adapted to be applied to protesters in the US fairly soon. In terms of 1930-1940 Europe you would need a foreign invader like Germany was, and the only candidate right now is Russia, who isn't very scary.
Yeah it's definitely coming to the US too.
Russia has been both an existential threat to Europe if everything isn't put into stopping them in Ukraine, and laughable as a threat to Europe regardless of how Ukraine goes, depending on the point someone is trying to make for a few years now.
My read is that Russia will find an ally/allies in Europe with right wing leadership that seizes on the potential of aligning with Trump and Putin early at the express expense of their neighbors.
I'm not really into European politics, so I'd trust some of you to have some better intuitions as to which countries that's likely to be. Regardless, you're probably already seeing your politicians squirm knowing they should be standing up to the rise of fascism, but also that if there isn't an "Allies" faction, then they'll just get left behind (or trampled) if they don't fall in line behind the "Axis" asap.
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On February 16 2025 21:32 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2025 21:11 Nebuchad wrote:On February 16 2025 19:26 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 17:12 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 09:06 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 08:38 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:28 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 16 2025 08:17 Elroi wrote:On February 16 2025 08:02 GreenHorizons wrote:
Sure seems like Europe is in for a rude awakening. Seems they turned a blind eye to the crimes of the US for too long, now it's caught up with them. What crimes? I think we have rather continued our own moronic defense and energy policies for too long. Basically ~90% of US foreign policy for the last 70 years or so. Coups, wars, torture, immiseration, etc. Europe is about to have it all come home again. Hope you have a "Greatest Generation" on standby. Assuming that you are right, how is it coming back to haunt us? If it isn't intuitive, I'm not sure it's easy to explain. If you think about all the death and suffering inflicted by the US (or West generally) on oppressed people throughout the Global South and beyond. All that has been rationalized as some variation of "unfortunate but necessary", or "lesser evil", "collateral damage", or "spreading freedom and democracy", "self-defense" (Israel), or whatever. That's all coming back to Europe like it did in the 30's/40's. If you happen to be a fan of fascism and have the sorta look/attitude/circumstances that thrives in that space, this might be great news. If not, Zelenskyy's message was pretty dire. I'm not a fan of fascism, but whatever. Is your point that the "global south" is going to attack Europe because of the US' history of foreign policy? + Show Spoiler +How exactly are we seeing that now? It seems to me that people from the global south are more or less equally violent wherever they go - be it Great Britain (long colonial history) or Sweden (no colonial history but long history of humanitarian policies and foreign aid). And the "Global South" is basically a non player in general that laggs more and more behind the rest of the world - just compare Israel to the more or less failed states that surround it.
I also don't understand what Zelensky's warning that you linked about the US not wanting to defend Europe anymore has to do with this imagined uprising by the "Global South". It's a reflection of a shift in the great power competition between the US and Russia/China. No. I mean, like in the 1930's and 40's, Western foreign policy is coming back to Europe to be domestic policy by way of other Europeans. Except there's no one to save you Europeans from yourselves this time. Currently this is more of a danger for the US than Europe. It is obviously likely that all the drone and AI technology currently tested on Palestinians will be adapted to be applied to protesters in the US fairly soon. In terms of 1930-1940 Europe you would need a foreign invader like Germany was, and the only candidate right now is Russia, who isn't very scary. Yeah it's definitely coming to the US too. Russia has been both an existential threat to Europe if everything isn't put into stopping them in Ukraine, and laughable as a threat to Europe regardless of how Ukraine goes, depending on the point someone is trying to make for a few years now. My read is that Russia will find an ally/allies in Europe with right wing leadership that seizes on the potential of aligning with Trump and Putin early at the express expense of their neighbors. I'm not really into European politics, so I'd trust some of you to have some better intuitions as to which countries that's likely to be. Regardless, you're probably already seeing your politicians squirm knowing they should be standing up to the rise of fascism, but also that if there isn't an "Allies" faction, then they'll just get left behind (or trampled) if they don't fall in line behind the "Axis" asap.
I mean I certainly thought Russia was more dangerous before I saw them in Ukraine, that's one thing.
Imo Europe falls because it votes in far right people who destroy their own countries, much like Trump aims to, rather than any sort of external threat like in the 1940s.
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EPT
