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On March 04 2022 13:25 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2022 12:53 yoshi245 wrote:
Even for Graham that's a bit much. He's always been a chicken-hawk warmonger neo-con type. Where is the problem? Who among our entire federal government wants Putin alive? This is bizarre for people to pretend this is shocking. I see nothing wrong with it. It is 100% certain Putin hopes Biden will die and Biden hopes Putin will die. The US and Russia are direct enemies.
I think many people want Putin dead at this point, but there are those that want to see him at least suffer by going to trial and be made as an example on the worldwide stage. The thing is just saying it out loud especially as a high ranking politician such as a long-established US Senator seems almost taboo.
The talk of him being ill (cancer?) or brain-fog from COVID is all speculation and seems like a potentially valid reason why people think he's acting this way and he's really committed to taking Ukraine regardless of the cost. It's clear he's willing to undergo a scorched earth policy as attacks via shelling at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is terrifying.
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On March 04 2022 13:51 yoshi245 wrote:
The talk of him being ill (cancer?) or brain-fog from COVID is all speculation and seems like a potentially valid reason why people think he's acting this way and he's really committed to taking Ukraine regardless of the cost. It's clear he's willing to undergo a scorched earth policy as attacks via shelling at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is terrifying.
He's 69 years old. It could be a lot of things. Whatever is motivating this Ukraine invasion, at this time, I think it is definitely medical. Then again, despite the image Putin has built for himself, he's really just not that successful. Everything Russia has is because they managed to make some nukes. When you peel the onion a bit, there's really nothing else there. They are an elegant version of North Korea.
In all honesty, I think its possible Putin is just old, over confident, and made a bad call. But my gut tells me something medical motivated him to make his move. He feels like he is entitled to a legacy.
Just out of curiosity, do we have anyone around here who sees a path to this Ukraine invasion being a net positive for Russia? Am I missing something? No matter which angle I approach the question from, nothing makes this a net positive. I am generally proficient at devil's advocate, but I got nothing. This appears to be a gigantic blunder with no way out. Especially after this whole nuclear power plant fiasco.
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Makes my blood boil. It is no surprise that thousands of people have signed up to help Ukraine. Our cowardly governments opting out is no surprise, but I am happy to know people across the world are defending Ukraine.
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On March 04 2022 14:31 Mohdoo wrote:Makes my blood boil. It is no surprise that thousands of people have signed up to help Ukraine. Our cowardly governments opting out is no surprise, but I am happy to know people across the world are defending Ukraine.
What part of "Mutually Assured Destruction" do you not understand?
It's not cowardly that the US isn't getting directly involved in the ground fighting. That would be an act of war. That would mean that eventually nuclear weapons get shot off and everyone dies.
We CAN'T get involved in the ground fighting, just the same way that Russia knows it cannot invade a NATO country without invoking article 5 and starting World War 3.
Neither side wants World War 3. Putin is playing a super dangerous game by threatening countries that are so close to NATO territory with direct aggression, it's not cowardly to limit our response to crippling economic sanctions it's also the only responsible thing we can do.
Lindsay Graham is shooting his mouth off like he usually does. I don't care how popular the idea is that the world would wish Putin would just get assassinated by someone in his cabinet. Calling for it on social media when you're an elected representitive of the United States is not helping anything and is just making things worse because now Putin has something he can plug into his propaganda outlets that shows how the West really feels about him and his government. He's trying to spin the narrative that Russia is only defending itself and Graham just made that easier for him. Good job Lindsay Graham, you're all bravado and no substance just like usual.
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On March 04 2022 15:03 Vindicare605 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2022 14:31 Mohdoo wrote:Makes my blood boil. It is no surprise that thousands of people have signed up to help Ukraine. Our cowardly governments opting out is no surprise, but I am happy to know people across the world are defending Ukraine. What part of "Mutually Assured Destruction" do you not understand? It's not cowardly that the US isn't getting directly involved in the ground fighting. That would be an act of war. That would mean that eventually nuclear weapons get shot off and everyone dies. We CAN'T get involved in the ground fighting, just the same way that Russia knows it cannot invade a NATO country without invoking article 5 and starting World War 3. Neither side wants World War 3. Putin is playing a super dangerous game by threatening countries that are so close to NATO territory with direct aggression, it's not cowardly to limit our response to crippling economic sanctions it's also the only responsible thing we can do.
Exactly this.
The people wanting direct NATO interference need to provide some case that there will not be nuclear war as a result of this action, or their moralizing and strong language are meaningless.
Its not cowardly to try and prevent full on WW3.
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I mean yea sure, let's help Ukraine by starting a nuclear war, yea that's really going to help their country when every country is turned into glass and radioactive fallout.
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MAD is pretty much a myth in the current geo-political situation and conflict , it is much more subtle.
(wrote a lenghty piece about this but i decided to remove. maybe i re-post it later again in an eddit for this post).
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Concerning Ukrainian NPP, no Chernobyl can happen since its a totally different type of reactor, PWR vs RBMK.
Doesn't mean that an accident can't happen obviously, but the reactor in Ukraine are the same type of those at Three Mile Island, hence the probability of a radioactive leak being significantly lower than with RBMK type reactor.
Plus, apparently the bombing and subsequent fire happened in the regular part of the installation (regular meaning non-radioactive basically), in the area of power generation, which is concordant with the images we've got linked above.
Sourced on the wiki article covering the Russian invasion on Ukraine citing a Radio-Canada article.
Still, it would obviously be great if all military are evacuated of the NPP and let the workers do their job correctly.
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Russia somehow making themselves look even worse during this whole ordeal is just comical
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On March 04 2022 12:03 Manit0u wrote:
Now this is all getting very interesting and terrifying at the same time. It seems like the war has reached a bit of a pivotal point where there are questions like:
- Can Russia defeat Ukraine before it collapses?
- If it can't defeat Ukraine on time, what will Putin do? Is he mentally stable enough to admit defeat and not resort to some extremes?
- Even if Russia wins this war, how long until sanctions kill it internally?
- What are the chances of a coup in Russia?
I believe that there may be more and more civil unrests in Russia itself (over 6k people have been arrested already) as its population is slowly waking up to the grim reality that they're at war and it's not going as planned. Russian news/propaganda portray their brave soldiers delivering tons of humanitarian support to poor Ukrainian neighbor who's being attacked by its own separatists in Donetsk. The levels of disinformation there are insane.
That reminds me of the invention of the molotov cocktail during the winter war:
The name "Molotov cocktail" was coined by the Finns during the Winter War, called Molotovin koktaili in Finnish. The name was a pejorative reference to Soviet foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov, who was one of the architects of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact signed in late August 1939.
The name's origin came from the propaganda Molotov produced during the Winter War, mainly his declaration on Soviet state radio that bombing missions over Finland were actually airborne humanitarian food deliveries for their starving neighbours. As a result, the Finns sarcastically dubbed the Soviet cluster bombs "Molotov bread baskets" in reference to Molotov's propaganda broadcasts. When the hand-held bottle firebomb was developed to attack and destroy Soviet tanks, the Finns called it the "Molotov cocktail", as "a drink to go with his food parcels" (from wikipedia)
Can’t deny that the finns have the best sense of humour.
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Russian markets to remain closed today. All week it is.
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I don't think this is medical. Putin miscalculated. He thought if he just took ukraine by the weekend, with the enemy army deserting and the president leaving the country, he would take some initial economy losses but then lift embargoes for acting as if he made a compromise. Like giving the country back to puppet. Let's be honest, if this was already over since Saturday, how many people would now be talking about lifting sanctions that caused our lives to be harder as well?
He problem about this is, I don't see a scenario where he can now save face and he needs that. If he just didn't care, he would take the land, he would write himself in fake history books as the great reuniter, all good. He however is only interested in staying in power and staying filthy rich. And with this disaster dragging him down, he now has to double down on murdering his internal opposition... Fun times.
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Yea Putin's really not left holding any cards here. This invasion so far has been a humiliation for him, and if he backs off now he loses any leverage he has for any future expansion and we can see from images and speeches he's given that he was never planning on stopping with just Ukraine.
I don't know, way I see it this either gets a lot worse and Russia turns Ukraine into another cuagmire like Vietnam or Afghanistan or the West capitulates to him and he walks away with part of the territory he wanted, which would help him save face a little bit but would just be a delay for him to try again. He needs all of Ukraine to satisfy his economic and strategic goals.
The longer this goes on the more the sanctions are going to strangle Russia. He's either going to go completely all in and end diplomacy completely, which would put us on a knife's edge to WW3, or he starts negotiating a cease fire that makes him look like he lost.
I don't like it either way. He's not going to just give up at this point. He can't afford to. He's only in power because of his strongman facade. A defeat of this level would only spell doom for him in Russia in one way or another.
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Czech Republic12133 Posts
On March 04 2022 12:12 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2022 11:54 PhoenixVoid wrote:U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham effectively calling for the assassination of Putin via palace coup. I don't know if it's because of the tension around this nuclear power plant (which looks to be secured and was at relatively low risk of meltdown or leakage anyways), but wow. A lot of alarm on social media I notice and Biden was on the call with Zelenskyy because of the attack on the plant. The IAEA says no increase in radiation levels yet. I don’t see the issue. He’s just the only one saying it out loud. Everyone wants Putin dead
I don't. What Russia really doesn't need is an usntable situation in which you can "disappear" a nuclear weapon.
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On March 04 2022 18:41 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2022 12:12 Mohdoo wrote:On March 04 2022 11:54 PhoenixVoid wrote:U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham effectively calling for the assassination of Putin via palace coup. I don't know if it's because of the tension around this nuclear power plant (which looks to be secured and was at relatively low risk of meltdown or leakage anyways), but wow. A lot of alarm on social media I notice and Biden was on the call with Zelenskyy because of the attack on the plant. The IAEA says no increase in radiation levels yet. https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1499574209567199235 I don’t see the issue. He’s just the only one saying it out loud. Everyone wants Putin dead I don't. What Russia really doesn't need is an usntable situation in which you can "disappear" a nuclear weapon.
I agree that an assassination has the potential to make things worse. But a well organized coup that results in Putin being arrested and brought to justice in an international court is something I would welcome. Either that or massive protests by the Russians to overthrow him are the two things I see as potential solution to this madness. Anything else probably escalates in WW3 and then it doesnt matter who wins on paper.
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Czech Republic12133 Posts
On March 04 2022 19:02 FreakyDroid wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2022 18:41 deacon.frost wrote:On March 04 2022 12:12 Mohdoo wrote:On March 04 2022 11:54 PhoenixVoid wrote:U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham effectively calling for the assassination of Putin via palace coup. I don't know if it's because of the tension around this nuclear power plant (which looks to be secured and was at relatively low risk of meltdown or leakage anyways), but wow. A lot of alarm on social media I notice and Biden was on the call with Zelenskyy because of the attack on the plant. The IAEA says no increase in radiation levels yet. https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1499574209567199235 I don’t see the issue. He’s just the only one saying it out loud. Everyone wants Putin dead I don't. What Russia really doesn't need is an usntable situation in which you can "disappear" a nuclear weapon. I agree that an assassination has the potential to make things worse. But a well organized coup that results in Putin being arrested and brought to justice in an international court is something I would welcome. Either that or massive protests by the Russians to overthrow him are the two things I see as potential solution to this madness. Anything else probably escalates in WW3 and then it doesnt matter who wins on paper.
Look how Russian army looks vs how well organized it should have been. The only coup where I can see the nuclear weapons not beeing in danger is an army one. And I don't think the world wants the army in the command.
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On March 04 2022 19:07 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2022 19:02 FreakyDroid wrote:On March 04 2022 18:41 deacon.frost wrote:On March 04 2022 12:12 Mohdoo wrote:On March 04 2022 11:54 PhoenixVoid wrote:U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham effectively calling for the assassination of Putin via palace coup. I don't know if it's because of the tension around this nuclear power plant (which looks to be secured and was at relatively low risk of meltdown or leakage anyways), but wow. A lot of alarm on social media I notice and Biden was on the call with Zelenskyy because of the attack on the plant. The IAEA says no increase in radiation levels yet. https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1499574209567199235 I don’t see the issue. He’s just the only one saying it out loud. Everyone wants Putin dead I don't. What Russia really doesn't need is an usntable situation in which you can "disappear" a nuclear weapon. I agree that an assassination has the potential to make things worse. But a well organized coup that results in Putin being arrested and brought to justice in an international court is something I would welcome. Either that or massive protests by the Russians to overthrow him are the two things I see as potential solution to this madness. Anything else probably escalates in WW3 and then it doesnt matter who wins on paper. Look how Russian army looks vs how well organized it should have been. The only coup where I can see the nuclear weapons not beeing in danger is an army one. And I don't think the world wants the army in the command.
Well Im not saying that the army should retain control, but play a role that enables the Russian state to organize fair and democratic elections.
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On March 04 2022 19:07 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2022 19:02 FreakyDroid wrote:On March 04 2022 18:41 deacon.frost wrote:On March 04 2022 12:12 Mohdoo wrote:On March 04 2022 11:54 PhoenixVoid wrote:U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham effectively calling for the assassination of Putin via palace coup. I don't know if it's because of the tension around this nuclear power plant (which looks to be secured and was at relatively low risk of meltdown or leakage anyways), but wow. A lot of alarm on social media I notice and Biden was on the call with Zelenskyy because of the attack on the plant. The IAEA says no increase in radiation levels yet. https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1499574209567199235 I don’t see the issue. He’s just the only one saying it out loud. Everyone wants Putin dead I don't. What Russia really doesn't need is an usntable situation in which you can "disappear" a nuclear weapon. I agree that an assassination has the potential to make things worse. But a well organized coup that results in Putin being arrested and brought to justice in an international court is something I would welcome. Either that or massive protests by the Russians to overthrow him are the two things I see as potential solution to this madness. Anything else probably escalates in WW3 and then it doesnt matter who wins on paper. Look how Russian army looks vs how well organized it should have been. The only coup where I can see the nuclear weapons not beeing in danger is an army one. And I don't think the world wants the army in the command.
It has to be a military coup though. As long as the state controls the military anything other would be an extremely bloody affair potentially.
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Northern Ireland27340 Posts
On March 04 2022 18:41 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2022 12:12 Mohdoo wrote:On March 04 2022 11:54 PhoenixVoid wrote:U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham effectively calling for the assassination of Putin via palace coup. I don't know if it's because of the tension around this nuclear power plant (which looks to be secured and was at relatively low risk of meltdown or leakage anyways), but wow. A lot of alarm on social media I notice and Biden was on the call with Zelenskyy because of the attack on the plant. The IAEA says no increase in radiation levels yet. https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1499574209567199235 I don’t see the issue. He’s just the only one saying it out loud. Everyone wants Putin dead I don't. What Russia really doesn't need is an usntable situation in which you can "disappear" a nuclear weapon.
This isn’t currently an unstable situation?
Putin’s underlings half the times look like they’re shitting themselves in his presence, I’m not sure there’s a huge amount of buy in.
Certainly not to the extent that Putin being gone would lead to a complete societal collapse and nukes go walksies
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EPT
