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On November 07 2020 10:52 PhoenixVoid wrote:
There seems to be a real revolt from within the news networks as the elections data teams want to give the coup de grace, but there's either editorial or executive pressure to keep it hanging. Could be fear of Trump, could be profits and ratings, could be waiting on Fox to break it first so they can take the brunt of the wrath.
What the fuck.
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Biden now ahead 21k in PA.
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nate silver plz make a call
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On November 07 2020 11:03 CorsairHero wrote:
nate silver plz make a call
He pretty much came out and said he would do it last night. The issue is that his org (538) is a branch of ESPN/Disney (as is ABC, which is why they work together), so he can't actually make a call by himself.
edit: And ABC, before the election even started, was very explicit that they weren't going to call <1% races.
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We're gonna be at 100% votes counted and still have CNN reviewing county maps, insisting "anything can happen"
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United States10402 Posts
On November 07 2020 11:06 Nevuk wrote:He pretty much came out and said he would do it last night. The issue is that his org (538) is a branch of ESPN/Disney (as is ABC, which is why they work together), so he can't actually make a call by himself. edit: And ABC, before the election even started, was very explicit that they weren't going to call <1% races.
Yeah but even Nate is getting a little tired of this stuff. His last segment on ABC was him basically explaining to the panelists that there was no path for Trump in PA. Looked so exasperated actually as if to scream "ITS OVER CALL IT". He's got far more professional integrity than me, I'd have just said it.
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United States10402 Posts
Not sure why NC on the NYT just moved to 98%, not sure when this happened or I'm just not interested in NC enough to have paid attention but kinda weird. No votes were counted, numbers are still the same. Huh.
Also Maricopa dump, Trump only gained 53%, well below what he needs right now. Still not "call" territory (though nothing is call territory at this point) but definitely still Biden in the driver seat and the batches in this third wave of votes has not been good to Trump
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9PM Maricopa ballots have pretty much nixed Trump's chances of flipping AZ, I think.
Only 53-44. Five points off what he needs, and the overall trend of Maricopa only being 52 or 53 and not the 58 he needs seems to be holding.
On November 07 2020 11:10 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 11:06 Nevuk wrote:On November 07 2020 11:03 CorsairHero wrote:
nate silver plz make a call He pretty much came out and said he would do it last night. The issue is that his org (538) is a branch of ESPN/Disney (as is ABC, which is why they work together), so he can't actually make a call by himself. edit: And ABC, before the election even started, was very explicit that they weren't going to call <1% races. Yeah but even Nate is getting a little tired of this stuff. His last segment on ABC was him basically explaining to the panelists that there was no path for Trump in PA. Looked so exasperated actually as if to scream "ITS OVER CALL IT". He's got far more professional integrity than me, I'd have just said it.
For all his faults, Nate is a math guy to the core. And from a math guy perspective not calling PA is just phenomenally dumb. It's more rational to be worried about that meteor hitting earth than it is to be worried about Trump getting provisional ballots 75-25.
There are clearly external calculuses at play here from the networks.
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United States10402 Posts
On November 07 2020 11:14 TheTenthDoc wrote:9PM Maricopa ballots have pretty much nixed Trump's chances of flipping AZ, I think. Only 53-44. Five points off what he needs, and the overall trend of Maricopa only being 52 or 53 and not the 58 he needs seems to be holding. Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 11:10 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 07 2020 11:06 Nevuk wrote:On November 07 2020 11:03 CorsairHero wrote:
nate silver plz make a call He pretty much came out and said he would do it last night. The issue is that his org (538) is a branch of ESPN/Disney (as is ABC, which is why they work together), so he can't actually make a call by himself. edit: And ABC, before the election even started, was very explicit that they weren't going to call <1% races. Yeah but even Nate is getting a little tired of this stuff. His last segment on ABC was him basically explaining to the panelists that there was no path for Trump in PA. Looked so exasperated actually as if to scream "ITS OVER CALL IT". He's got far more professional integrity than me, I'd have just said it. For all his faults, Nate is a math guy to the core. And from a math guy perspective not calling PA is just phenomenally dumb. There are clearly external calculuses at play here from the networks.
But even at that, Nate would have some of that insight right since they are all under the same umbrella? It wouldn't make sense for their literal best math dude in there to not want get his hands on those internal numbers. Clearly, either the news networks really know something that we dont, or they're just being idiots.
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On November 07 2020 11:18 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 11:14 TheTenthDoc wrote:9PM Maricopa ballots have pretty much nixed Trump's chances of flipping AZ, I think. Only 53-44. Five points off what he needs, and the overall trend of Maricopa only being 52 or 53 and not the 58 he needs seems to be holding. On November 07 2020 11:10 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 07 2020 11:06 Nevuk wrote:On November 07 2020 11:03 CorsairHero wrote:
nate silver plz make a call He pretty much came out and said he would do it last night. The issue is that his org (538) is a branch of ESPN/Disney (as is ABC, which is why they work together), so he can't actually make a call by himself. edit: And ABC, before the election even started, was very explicit that they weren't going to call <1% races. Yeah but even Nate is getting a little tired of this stuff. His last segment on ABC was him basically explaining to the panelists that there was no path for Trump in PA. Looked so exasperated actually as if to scream "ITS OVER CALL IT". He's got far more professional integrity than me, I'd have just said it. For all his faults, Nate is a math guy to the core. And from a math guy perspective not calling PA is just phenomenally dumb. There are clearly external calculuses at play here from the networks. But even at that, Nate would have some of that insight right since they are all under the same umbrella? It wouldn't make sense for their literal best math dude in there to not want get his hands on those internal numbers. Clearly, either the news networks really know something that we dont, or they're just being idiots.
It's tough to say. I don't think Nate has a good sense of what AP and Fox are thinking. And as mentioned his network has more stringent guidelines than they do. The other Nate, Nate Cohn, also seems to be in hard call PA camp, but is similarly hamstrung by his affiliations. One thing's for sure, Nate Silver is going to be REAL spicy during the next 538 podcast.
Oh well. Back to watching Queen's Gambit and setting aside my Crystal Head Vodka to drink tomorrow instead of tonight.
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Some reporter should ask GOP leaders if this is what they expected Republican funds to be used for. Also makes me wonder if the Republican Party can sue Trump for this once it's all over.
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On November 07 2020 11:18 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2020 11:14 TheTenthDoc wrote:9PM Maricopa ballots have pretty much nixed Trump's chances of flipping AZ, I think. Only 53-44. Five points off what he needs, and the overall trend of Maricopa only being 52 or 53 and not the 58 he needs seems to be holding. On November 07 2020 11:10 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 07 2020 11:06 Nevuk wrote:On November 07 2020 11:03 CorsairHero wrote:
nate silver plz make a call He pretty much came out and said he would do it last night. The issue is that his org (538) is a branch of ESPN/Disney (as is ABC, which is why they work together), so he can't actually make a call by himself. edit: And ABC, before the election even started, was very explicit that they weren't going to call <1% races. Yeah but even Nate is getting a little tired of this stuff. His last segment on ABC was him basically explaining to the panelists that there was no path for Trump in PA. Looked so exasperated actually as if to scream "ITS OVER CALL IT". He's got far more professional integrity than me, I'd have just said it. For all his faults, Nate is a math guy to the core. And from a math guy perspective not calling PA is just phenomenally dumb. There are clearly external calculuses at play here from the networks. But even at that, Nate would have some of that insight right since they are all under the same umbrella? It wouldn't make sense for their literal best math dude in there to not want get his hands on those internal numbers. Clearly, either the news networks really know something that we dont, or they're just being idiots.
He's under a different organizational structure entirely. IE, their CEO reports to Bob Iger Bob Chapek now, and so does Nate, but they don't report to each other.
ABC can have him on for an interview anytime they want (and he presumably gets paid for it), but they aren't going to be on the same internal work emails, as Nate doesn't answer to anyone at ABC. They do some content sharing, but I believe ABC has some of their own data journalists, even separate from 538.
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Silver just straight-up calling out the networks on not calling PA while on ABC News, lulz.
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United States10402 Posts
On November 07 2020 11:32 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Silver just straight-up calling out the networks on not calling PA while on ABC News, lulz.
It was pretty funny the one time I open up the ABC youtube livestream. Was pleasantly surprised but I think Nate, as much as he actually gains more attention the longer the election goes on and the more numbers are dumped, just wants this to be over.
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CNN is reporting that Trump isn't happy with his legal team and wants new lawyers. (His legal team includes Rudy Giuliani, so I don't blame him, but it's a weird time to try to find new lawyers).
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United States10402 Posts
On November 07 2020 11:36 Nevuk wrote:
CNN is reporting that Trump isn't happy with his legal team and wants new lawyers. (His legal team includes Rudy Giuliani, so I don't blame him, but it's a weird time to try to find new lawyers).
So I'm just a 2L, but I'm pretty sure I can do a better job. Sub me in (to sabotage)
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I think years of having lawsuits succeed because his opponents literally cannot afford to mount a defense has distorted Trump's idea of what makes a good attorney.
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I mean there really is no excuse now... and MSNBC is nearing the red line when they said would call it.
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In my most generous interpretation, I can get not calling Arizona (since the lead will narrow), GA (obviously will be recounted) and PA (since it's not above the auto-recount threshold yet).
However, there's simply no justification for not calling Nevada, NC, or Alaska. I really hope that these news stations get absolutely hammered about this in the coming days.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8f9b90c44f056a89706d1613474d9dbe6a9f808cda0f4f84179823c8ad90f65f.png)
![[image loading]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fccd09ceb9374f49e89a5d8509686cd3f34aa670982cd0921e07642d465dd8c3.jpg)
