|
Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread |
On June 22 2026 23:15 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On June 22 2026 21:17 Gorsameth wrote:
Ah right, the 'Trump wasn't even trying yet' defense. He can't even beat algae in a reflecting pool.
Keeping algae out of a pool is a really hard problem, and no one has ever figured out how to handle that. The technology simply isn't there yet. It is totally fine that the United States of America can't do it either.
|
On June 23 2026 01:03 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 00:26 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 23 2026 00:04 Biff The Understudy wrote:
It’s 45 degrees (113F) in France today, and 41 in Paris.
But hey, climate change is a cult and let’s drill clean, beautiful coal, baby. As if on cue, even some Republican senators are occasionally standing up to Trump's anti-science / anti-environment / pro-climate-change agenda: "On Wednesday, the Senate passed a bipartisan bill establishing that no federal funds shall be used to “decommission or descope” the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) system, a $368 million network critical to understanding climate change and marine ecosystems. The Trump administration has abandoned plans to dismantle a decade-old, deep-ocean observation network that scientists have used to track changes in the ocean and monitor marine heatwaves and coastal flooding." https://earth.org/trump-administration-drops-plans-to-dismantle-key-ocean-observation-network/ Unfortunately, Trump is still continuing to try to pressure everyone else to ignore climate change: "The fate of a World Bank climate target is hanging in the balance as the Trump administration pressures the institution to jettison what it calls a “distortionary” and “nonsensical” policy. The bank pledged three years ago to devote 45 percent of its funding to climate-related projects by 2025. It exceeded that goal by directing $39.2 billion, or 48 percent of its financing last year, to projects with climate benefits. It came as the Trump administration has called on the institution to abandon the target and increase the number of natural gas projects in its portfolio." https://www.eenews.net/articles/us-pushes-world-bank-climate-target-to-the-brink/ "The Trump administration revealed the list of materials that the National Park Service removed from parks across the country that relate to civil rights, diverse populations, science, and the environment. ... Examples of items that were removed include signs about climate change at parks like Acadia National Park in Maine and Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge in New York; materials involving civil rights at the National Mall in Washington, D.C. and at the Medgar and Myrtle Evans Home National Monument in Jackson, Mississippi; materials involving slavery at the President’s House in Philadelphia and materials on women’s rights at the Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge at the Gateway National Recreation Area in New York." https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-administration-reveals-list-civil-rights-climate-change/story?id=133997786 Probably the worst thing Trump will have done. The consequences of those years for future generations will be enormous. I think the speed and the visibility of environmental degradation and climate change is the most scary thing I have witnessed in my lifetime. But hey, won’t touch the bottom line of the oil industry. Some people are making serious money, so let the world burn in peace.
Back in 2016, before the first election that Trump won, some Trump supporters had tried to argue "Trump is already a billionaire, so he won't need to sell out to immoral special interest groups, he won't be influenced by bribes, and he generally won't be distracted by trying to make any more money".
And then it turned out that he was more obsessed with increasing his personal wealth than any other American politician in modern history.
|
On June 23 2026 01:14 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On June 22 2026 23:15 LightSpectra wrote:On June 22 2026 21:17 Gorsameth wrote:
Ah right, the 'Trump wasn't even trying yet' defense. He can't even beat algae in a reflecting pool. Keeping algae out of a pool is a really hard problem, and no one has ever figured out how to handle that. The technology simply isn't there yet. It is totally fine that the United States of America can't do it either.
I know the reflecting pool is a relatively smallbeans issue of corruption and incompetence compared to the Iran War and tariffs, but it's so funny how gracefully it encapsulates the entire right-wing worldview.
Trump wants to rebuild the capital in his image like your average JRPG villain. He gives a no-bid renovation contract to one of his donors that have no idea what they're doing, then waives all of the typical reviews from federal agencies. Contractor spends $14m of the taxpayers' money to repaint it and then refill it with water. It turns into a toxic mess of algae. So contractor dumps hydrogen peroxide into the pool, making the paint peel off and float to the surface in chunks. Right-wing then says this is only happening because Obama and antifa are sabotaging the pool to embarrass Trump.
Really makes you wonder how Iran, whose military budget is like 1% of the USA's, managed to beat us in a war.
|
On June 23 2026 01:30 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 01:03 Biff The Understudy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:26 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 23 2026 00:04 Biff The Understudy wrote:
It’s 45 degrees (113F) in France today, and 41 in Paris.
But hey, climate change is a cult and let’s drill clean, beautiful coal, baby. As if on cue, even some Republican senators are occasionally standing up to Trump's anti-science / anti-environment / pro-climate-change agenda: "On Wednesday, the Senate passed a bipartisan bill establishing that no federal funds shall be used to “decommission or descope” the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) system, a $368 million network critical to understanding climate change and marine ecosystems. The Trump administration has abandoned plans to dismantle a decade-old, deep-ocean observation network that scientists have used to track changes in the ocean and monitor marine heatwaves and coastal flooding." https://earth.org/trump-administration-drops-plans-to-dismantle-key-ocean-observation-network/ Unfortunately, Trump is still continuing to try to pressure everyone else to ignore climate change: "The fate of a World Bank climate target is hanging in the balance as the Trump administration pressures the institution to jettison what it calls a “distortionary” and “nonsensical” policy. The bank pledged three years ago to devote 45 percent of its funding to climate-related projects by 2025. It exceeded that goal by directing $39.2 billion, or 48 percent of its financing last year, to projects with climate benefits. It came as the Trump administration has called on the institution to abandon the target and increase the number of natural gas projects in its portfolio." https://www.eenews.net/articles/us-pushes-world-bank-climate-target-to-the-brink/ "The Trump administration revealed the list of materials that the National Park Service removed from parks across the country that relate to civil rights, diverse populations, science, and the environment. ... Examples of items that were removed include signs about climate change at parks like Acadia National Park in Maine and Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge in New York; materials involving civil rights at the National Mall in Washington, D.C. and at the Medgar and Myrtle Evans Home National Monument in Jackson, Mississippi; materials involving slavery at the President’s House in Philadelphia and materials on women’s rights at the Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge at the Gateway National Recreation Area in New York." https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-administration-reveals-list-civil-rights-climate-change/story?id=133997786 Probably the worst thing Trump will have done. The consequences of those years for future generations will be enormous. I think the speed and the visibility of environmental degradation and climate change is the most scary thing I have witnessed in my lifetime. But hey, won’t touch the bottom line of the oil industry. Some people are making serious money, so let the world burn in peace. Back in 2016, before the first election that Trump won, some Trump supporters had tried to argue "Trump is already a billionaire, so he won't need to sell out to immoral special interest groups, he won't be influenced by bribes, and he generally won't be distracted by trying to make any more money". And then it turned out that he was more obsessed with increasing his personal wealth than any other American politician in modern history. "I have enough money"
Said (almost) no billionaire ever.
|
On June 23 2026 00:41 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 00:13 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:03 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 23:37 Billyboy wrote:On June 22 2026 14:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 13:46 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:On June 22 2026 12:21 Falling wrote:
I have a feeling including the conflict in Lebanon in the MOU, or rather Hezbollah vs Israel was a mistake. Well, the whole thing was a mistake but this was a mistake too. Hezbollah and Israel will just keep stun-locking US in their negotiations with Iran.
It might be a mistake from Trump's administration, but I doubt it's a mistake from Iran. I say Trump's administration, because surely other US based politicians/intel people/generals/pundits in general could have told them that they have no leverage over Israel, and promising things on behalf of Israel won't work. This is not an outcome that should have been a surprise to even other Americans. But also surely, Iran also knew this. Either they agreed to this because they are just deeply unserious about a ceasefire and are just taking this opportunity to make Israel look worse (and the US to look more imcompetant) knowing that this can't work. Or Iran are working to drive a wedge between Israel and Trump, knowing that this was the obvious outcome, and it was going to poop all over Trump's shiny new peace deal, and to some extent that's already working. From Irans position the most valuable thing they can get from this deal is a realistic chance of not getting attacked again. The second most valuable is sanctions getting dropped. The third not getting bombed back to the stone age (because current regime doesn't care much about their people and it's a double edged sword). Israel is not the only reason for the war but they are the biggest one. Including them and Lebanon in the deal makes sense if you are serious about a deal working out long term. And the world can absolutely force Israel to do whatever the deal says. If the US sanctions Israel then EU would be more than happy to go along with that. If the choice stands between sanctions on a small economically irrelevant country or $250/barrel oil China and Asia would jump on it. Taking the world economy hostage when you are a small export focused country is not the powerplay you think it is. Doubleupgradeobbies has a much better analysis here because he is taking into account that Hezbollah is Iran, not Lebanon. Clearly it is extremely important for Iran to keep its regional proxies and imperialistic goals, number one being the complete obliteration of Israel. And they are in a position to get absolutely everything they want. On June 22 2026 22:09 Godwrath wrote:On June 22 2026 17:21 Falling wrote:
Oh, I fully expect it's as intended from Iran's perspective.
It's a mistake for American negotiators to agree to it. I don't think it's Iran the one occupying parts of Lebanon, so maybe American negotiators should talk to whoever is. Yes it is. That is why the talks are so ridiculous. Hezbollah is Iran. Israel has a ceasefire with Lebanon that they are both agreeing too (unknown and probably unlikely if Israel will fulfill its part of leaving once Hezbollah is defeated). But Hezbollah is in Lebanon. Arguably they are a greater power than the Lebanese government. Israel wants to bomb Irans oil industry, powerplants and infrastructure turning Iran into a failed state. Iran sees itself a local power and Hezbollah as one of its ways to project that power. Israel is their main (but not only) advesary. Given the current actions just making peace with the US and leaving Israel out to do whatever they want makes no sense from Irans perspective. They will gain no permanent security since it's likely that Israel will just attack them anyway and maybe even rope the US back into it. Keeping Hezbollah in Lebanon serves two purposes. First its offensive potential against Israel in any future war. Especially now with drones being a thing. Second it's a way to test US security guarantees and how serious the US is about this deal. The may not trust the US but they absolutely can't trust Israel. If USA is willing to reign in Israel in Lebanon it's a pretty good signal there would be consequences if Israel unilaterally decides to break a future treaty. It also costs the US nothing and can be sold as a win at home. Also Israel has nukes and the biggest army in the middle east so no one takes Iran wanting to destroy Israel seriously. Not even Israel which is why they had no problem escalating this to a full on war. The only thing that matters is Iran not getting a nuke which together with an open strait is the two things the world and the US wants. As long as Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons Israels feelings about existential safety are ridiculous. I’m not sure if you forgot about Oct 7th or know that much of northern Israel is often evacuated because of threat of rocket attack. That it’s super unlikely that Iran could actually kill every single one of them without a nuke doesn’t make it ridiculous that they are scared for themselves and others. Israel is far away from Iran, they can’t project their power that far and win. That is why they have not gone to full war with Iran. I also disagree with you on “everything that matters”. I understand why Iran wants Hezbollah, I also understand why Lebanon and Israel do not. Do you not understand why Israel, Lebanon (hell most of the Middle East countries) want Irans ability to not support terrorists (their proxy armies) abroad? I get that the Us has capitulated in this like they have on so many other points. But it is no shock why Israel has not. This is far more important to them than the strait opening up. Edit: also ballistic missile s was a big deal to Israel (and other Middle East nations). And it doesn’t seem like the nuke is even off the table yet, just promises to talk about it. I would be more understanding of Israels plight if it wasn't waging a war of expansion and engaging in an open land grab.
I get this is the narrative you are being fed, and in the end it might end up being true, and no matter the r how many times the below gets posted you are going to circle back to it for “reasons”. But the deal between Israel and the actual Lebanese government is they clear out Hezbollah then the Lebanese army will back fill Israel in “pilot zones” and eventually the whole south of Lebanon.
|
On June 23 2026 00:13 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 00:03 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 23:37 Billyboy wrote:On June 22 2026 14:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 13:46 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:On June 22 2026 12:21 Falling wrote:
I have a feeling including the conflict in Lebanon in the MOU, or rather Hezbollah vs Israel was a mistake. Well, the whole thing was a mistake but this was a mistake too. Hezbollah and Israel will just keep stun-locking US in their negotiations with Iran.
It might be a mistake from Trump's administration, but I doubt it's a mistake from Iran. I say Trump's administration, because surely other US based politicians/intel people/generals/pundits in general could have told them that they have no leverage over Israel, and promising things on behalf of Israel won't work. This is not an outcome that should have been a surprise to even other Americans. But also surely, Iran also knew this. Either they agreed to this because they are just deeply unserious about a ceasefire and are just taking this opportunity to make Israel look worse (and the US to look more imcompetant) knowing that this can't work. Or Iran are working to drive a wedge between Israel and Trump, knowing that this was the obvious outcome, and it was going to poop all over Trump's shiny new peace deal, and to some extent that's already working. From Irans position the most valuable thing they can get from this deal is a realistic chance of not getting attacked again. The second most valuable is sanctions getting dropped. The third not getting bombed back to the stone age (because current regime doesn't care much about their people and it's a double edged sword). Israel is not the only reason for the war but they are the biggest one. Including them and Lebanon in the deal makes sense if you are serious about a deal working out long term. And the world can absolutely force Israel to do whatever the deal says. If the US sanctions Israel then EU would be more than happy to go along with that. If the choice stands between sanctions on a small economically irrelevant country or $250/barrel oil China and Asia would jump on it. Taking the world economy hostage when you are a small export focused country is not the powerplay you think it is. Doubleupgradeobbies has a much better analysis here because he is taking into account that Hezbollah is Iran, not Lebanon. Clearly it is extremely important for Iran to keep its regional proxies and imperialistic goals, number one being the complete obliteration of Israel. And they are in a position to get absolutely everything they want. On June 22 2026 22:09 Godwrath wrote:On June 22 2026 17:21 Falling wrote:
Oh, I fully expect it's as intended from Iran's perspective.
It's a mistake for American negotiators to agree to it. I don't think it's Iran the one occupying parts of Lebanon, so maybe American negotiators should talk to whoever is. Yes it is. That is why the talks are so ridiculous. Hezbollah is Iran. Israel has a ceasefire with Lebanon that they are both agreeing too (unknown and probably unlikely if Israel will fulfill its part of leaving once Hezbollah is defeated). But Hezbollah is in Lebanon. Arguably they are a greater power than the Lebanese government. Israel wants to bomb Irans oil industry, powerplants and infrastructure turning Iran into a failed state. Iran sees itself a local power and Hezbollah as one of its ways to project that power. Israel is their main (but not only) advesary. Given the current actions just making peace with the US and leaving Israel out to do whatever they want makes no sense from Irans perspective. They will gain no permanent security since it's likely that Israel will just attack them anyway and maybe even rope the US back into it. Keeping Hezbollah in Lebanon serves two purposes. First its offensive potential against Israel in any future war. Especially now with drones being a thing. Second it's a way to test US security guarantees and how serious the US is about this deal. The may not trust the US but they absolutely can't trust Israel. If USA is willing to reign in Israel in Lebanon it's a pretty good signal there would be consequences if Israel unilaterally decides to break a future treaty. It also costs the US nothing and can be sold as a win at home. Also Israel has nukes and the biggest army in the middle east so no one takes Iran wanting to destroy Israel seriously. Not even Israel which is why they had no problem escalating this to a full on war. The only thing that matters is Iran not getting a nuke which together with an open strait is the two things the world and the US wants. As long as Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons Israels feelings about existential safety are ridiculous. I’m not sure if you forgot about Oct 7th or know that much of northern Israel is often evacuated because of threat of rocket attack. That it’s super unlikely that Iran could actually kill every single one of them without a nuke doesn’t make it ridiculous that they are scared for themselves and others. Israel is far away from Iran, they can’t project their power that far and win. That is why they have not gone to full war with Iran. I also disagree with you on “everything that matters”. I understand why Iran wants Hezbollah, I also understand why Lebanon and Israel do not. Do you not understand why Israel, Lebanon (hell most of the Middle East countries) want Irans ability to not support terrorists (their proxy armies) abroad? I get that the Us has capitulated in this like they have on so many other points. But it is no shock why Israel has not. This is far more important to them than the strait opening up. Edit: also ballistic missile s was a big deal to Israel (and other Middle East nations). And it doesn’t seem like the nuke is even off the table yet, just promises to talk about it.
You have like a seed of understanding.
Israel wants some things. Before they decided that a full scale war with Iran was a good plan they could wage all the proxy wars they wanted with Iran because frankly the world cared very little and the US cared even less. The time to deal with Hezbollah was then.
Now we are where we are.
The US (and the world) still wants 2 things: no Iranian nukes, strait open before global strategic oil reserves run out.
Israel, as you astutely observed, can provide 0 of those things.
The US is the only power in the world that can actually force them on Iran. However even a warcrimes level air campaign is unlikely to cut it so it would have to be a full on invasion. The US has (for many) reasons decided both of those options is a bad idea.
So the only thing left is diplomacy.
Now if you want something you have to to give the other side something. Iran has their demands, the US has their demands. The US can't fully make Iran do as they want or they would have. They can however make Israel do what they want.
From a global perspective the things Israel care about from Iran and Hezbollah that is not nuclear related is functionally irrelevant, even ballistic missiles, because it's not existential, it's not even enough to seriously hurt Israel.
For the US and the world the equation is simple:
Global economy, no nukes in Iran >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Israel feelings on this.
Before Israel made the brilliant decision for full on war with Iran that made them hard commit the world cared basically 0 and they could do what they wanted.
Since Israel is now functionally useless when it comes to a solution, but perfectly capable (and willing) of fucking up said solutions I fully expect the US to twist their arm on this issue.
It's still a negotiation so let's see where it lands but making Israel back out of Lebanon is a very cheap option for the US so I would not be surprised to see them force Israel to do it.
|
On June 23 2026 01:58 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 00:41 Gorsameth wrote:On June 23 2026 00:13 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:03 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 23:37 Billyboy wrote:On June 22 2026 14:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 13:46 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:On June 22 2026 12:21 Falling wrote:
I have a feeling including the conflict in Lebanon in the MOU, or rather Hezbollah vs Israel was a mistake. Well, the whole thing was a mistake but this was a mistake too. Hezbollah and Israel will just keep stun-locking US in their negotiations with Iran.
It might be a mistake from Trump's administration, but I doubt it's a mistake from Iran. I say Trump's administration, because surely other US based politicians/intel people/generals/pundits in general could have told them that they have no leverage over Israel, and promising things on behalf of Israel won't work. This is not an outcome that should have been a surprise to even other Americans. But also surely, Iran also knew this. Either they agreed to this because they are just deeply unserious about a ceasefire and are just taking this opportunity to make Israel look worse (and the US to look more imcompetant) knowing that this can't work. Or Iran are working to drive a wedge between Israel and Trump, knowing that this was the obvious outcome, and it was going to poop all over Trump's shiny new peace deal, and to some extent that's already working. From Irans position the most valuable thing they can get from this deal is a realistic chance of not getting attacked again. The second most valuable is sanctions getting dropped. The third not getting bombed back to the stone age (because current regime doesn't care much about their people and it's a double edged sword). Israel is not the only reason for the war but they are the biggest one. Including them and Lebanon in the deal makes sense if you are serious about a deal working out long term. And the world can absolutely force Israel to do whatever the deal says. If the US sanctions Israel then EU would be more than happy to go along with that. If the choice stands between sanctions on a small economically irrelevant country or $250/barrel oil China and Asia would jump on it. Taking the world economy hostage when you are a small export focused country is not the powerplay you think it is. Doubleupgradeobbies has a much better analysis here because he is taking into account that Hezbollah is Iran, not Lebanon. Clearly it is extremely important for Iran to keep its regional proxies and imperialistic goals, number one being the complete obliteration of Israel. And they are in a position to get absolutely everything they want. On June 22 2026 22:09 Godwrath wrote:On June 22 2026 17:21 Falling wrote:
Oh, I fully expect it's as intended from Iran's perspective.
It's a mistake for American negotiators to agree to it. I don't think it's Iran the one occupying parts of Lebanon, so maybe American negotiators should talk to whoever is. Yes it is. That is why the talks are so ridiculous. Hezbollah is Iran. Israel has a ceasefire with Lebanon that they are both agreeing too (unknown and probably unlikely if Israel will fulfill its part of leaving once Hezbollah is defeated). But Hezbollah is in Lebanon. Arguably they are a greater power than the Lebanese government. Israel wants to bomb Irans oil industry, powerplants and infrastructure turning Iran into a failed state. Iran sees itself a local power and Hezbollah as one of its ways to project that power. Israel is their main (but not only) advesary. Given the current actions just making peace with the US and leaving Israel out to do whatever they want makes no sense from Irans perspective. They will gain no permanent security since it's likely that Israel will just attack them anyway and maybe even rope the US back into it. Keeping Hezbollah in Lebanon serves two purposes. First its offensive potential against Israel in any future war. Especially now with drones being a thing. Second it's a way to test US security guarantees and how serious the US is about this deal. The may not trust the US but they absolutely can't trust Israel. If USA is willing to reign in Israel in Lebanon it's a pretty good signal there would be consequences if Israel unilaterally decides to break a future treaty. It also costs the US nothing and can be sold as a win at home. Also Israel has nukes and the biggest army in the middle east so no one takes Iran wanting to destroy Israel seriously. Not even Israel which is why they had no problem escalating this to a full on war. The only thing that matters is Iran not getting a nuke which together with an open strait is the two things the world and the US wants. As long as Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons Israels feelings about existential safety are ridiculous. I’m not sure if you forgot about Oct 7th or know that much of northern Israel is often evacuated because of threat of rocket attack. That it’s super unlikely that Iran could actually kill every single one of them without a nuke doesn’t make it ridiculous that they are scared for themselves and others. Israel is far away from Iran, they can’t project their power that far and win. That is why they have not gone to full war with Iran. I also disagree with you on “everything that matters”. I understand why Iran wants Hezbollah, I also understand why Lebanon and Israel do not. Do you not understand why Israel, Lebanon (hell most of the Middle East countries) want Irans ability to not support terrorists (their proxy armies) abroad? I get that the Us has capitulated in this like they have on so many other points. But it is no shock why Israel has not. This is far more important to them than the strait opening up. Edit: also ballistic missile s was a big deal to Israel (and other Middle East nations). And it doesn’t seem like the nuke is even off the table yet, just promises to talk about it. I would be more understanding of Israels plight if it wasn't waging a war of expansion and engaging in an open land grab. I get this is the narrative you are being fed, and in the end it might end up being true, and no matter the r how many times the below gets posted you are going to circle back to it for “reasons”. But the deal between Israel and the actual Lebanese government is they clear out Hezbollah then the Lebanese army will back fill Israel in “pilot zones” and eventually the whole south of Lebanon. Im sure they will leava Gaza and go back to the pre war border any day now...
Any day...
|
On June 23 2026 02:40 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 01:58 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:41 Gorsameth wrote:On June 23 2026 00:13 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:03 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 23:37 Billyboy wrote:On June 22 2026 14:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 13:46 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:On June 22 2026 12:21 Falling wrote:
I have a feeling including the conflict in Lebanon in the MOU, or rather Hezbollah vs Israel was a mistake. Well, the whole thing was a mistake but this was a mistake too. Hezbollah and Israel will just keep stun-locking US in their negotiations with Iran.
It might be a mistake from Trump's administration, but I doubt it's a mistake from Iran. I say Trump's administration, because surely other US based politicians/intel people/generals/pundits in general could have told them that they have no leverage over Israel, and promising things on behalf of Israel won't work. This is not an outcome that should have been a surprise to even other Americans. But also surely, Iran also knew this. Either they agreed to this because they are just deeply unserious about a ceasefire and are just taking this opportunity to make Israel look worse (and the US to look more imcompetant) knowing that this can't work. Or Iran are working to drive a wedge between Israel and Trump, knowing that this was the obvious outcome, and it was going to poop all over Trump's shiny new peace deal, and to some extent that's already working. From Irans position the most valuable thing they can get from this deal is a realistic chance of not getting attacked again. The second most valuable is sanctions getting dropped. The third not getting bombed back to the stone age (because current regime doesn't care much about their people and it's a double edged sword). Israel is not the only reason for the war but they are the biggest one. Including them and Lebanon in the deal makes sense if you are serious about a deal working out long term. And the world can absolutely force Israel to do whatever the deal says. If the US sanctions Israel then EU would be more than happy to go along with that. If the choice stands between sanctions on a small economically irrelevant country or $250/barrel oil China and Asia would jump on it. Taking the world economy hostage when you are a small export focused country is not the powerplay you think it is. Doubleupgradeobbies has a much better analysis here because he is taking into account that Hezbollah is Iran, not Lebanon. Clearly it is extremely important for Iran to keep its regional proxies and imperialistic goals, number one being the complete obliteration of Israel. And they are in a position to get absolutely everything they want. On June 22 2026 22:09 Godwrath wrote:On June 22 2026 17:21 Falling wrote:
Oh, I fully expect it's as intended from Iran's perspective.
It's a mistake for American negotiators to agree to it. I don't think it's Iran the one occupying parts of Lebanon, so maybe American negotiators should talk to whoever is. Yes it is. That is why the talks are so ridiculous. Hezbollah is Iran. Israel has a ceasefire with Lebanon that they are both agreeing too (unknown and probably unlikely if Israel will fulfill its part of leaving once Hezbollah is defeated). But Hezbollah is in Lebanon. Arguably they are a greater power than the Lebanese government. Israel wants to bomb Irans oil industry, powerplants and infrastructure turning Iran into a failed state. Iran sees itself a local power and Hezbollah as one of its ways to project that power. Israel is their main (but not only) advesary. Given the current actions just making peace with the US and leaving Israel out to do whatever they want makes no sense from Irans perspective. They will gain no permanent security since it's likely that Israel will just attack them anyway and maybe even rope the US back into it. Keeping Hezbollah in Lebanon serves two purposes. First its offensive potential against Israel in any future war. Especially now with drones being a thing. Second it's a way to test US security guarantees and how serious the US is about this deal. The may not trust the US but they absolutely can't trust Israel. If USA is willing to reign in Israel in Lebanon it's a pretty good signal there would be consequences if Israel unilaterally decides to break a future treaty. It also costs the US nothing and can be sold as a win at home. Also Israel has nukes and the biggest army in the middle east so no one takes Iran wanting to destroy Israel seriously. Not even Israel which is why they had no problem escalating this to a full on war. The only thing that matters is Iran not getting a nuke which together with an open strait is the two things the world and the US wants. As long as Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons Israels feelings about existential safety are ridiculous. I’m not sure if you forgot about Oct 7th or know that much of northern Israel is often evacuated because of threat of rocket attack. That it’s super unlikely that Iran could actually kill every single one of them without a nuke doesn’t make it ridiculous that they are scared for themselves and others. Israel is far away from Iran, they can’t project their power that far and win. That is why they have not gone to full war with Iran. I also disagree with you on “everything that matters”. I understand why Iran wants Hezbollah, I also understand why Lebanon and Israel do not. Do you not understand why Israel, Lebanon (hell most of the Middle East countries) want Irans ability to not support terrorists (their proxy armies) abroad? I get that the Us has capitulated in this like they have on so many other points. But it is no shock why Israel has not. This is far more important to them than the strait opening up. Edit: also ballistic missile s was a big deal to Israel (and other Middle East nations). And it doesn’t seem like the nuke is even off the table yet, just promises to talk about it. I would be more understanding of Israels plight if it wasn't waging a war of expansion and engaging in an open land grab. I get this is the narrative you are being fed, and in the end it might end up being true, and no matter the r how many times the below gets posted you are going to circle back to it for “reasons”. But the deal between Israel and the actual Lebanese government is they clear out Hezbollah then the Lebanese army will back fill Israel in “pilot zones” and eventually the whole south of Lebanon. Im sure they will leava Gaza and go back to the pre war border any day now... Any day...
With the end of Hamas and a peace agreement. Seems fairly likely, they have in the past, including destroying settlements. Israel is also a democracy so when things calm down and the moderates get back in they often lean this way. Not that I expect it soon, but considering history your analysis seems to hinge on Israelis being evil, which I mean is the common thread to most analysis we heater here.
Good attempted dodge though, just absurd your one liners lack any depth. Probably could get lots of likes from other uninformed people !
|
On June 23 2026 02:01 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 00:13 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:03 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 23:37 Billyboy wrote:On June 22 2026 14:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 13:46 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:On June 22 2026 12:21 Falling wrote:
I have a feeling including the conflict in Lebanon in the MOU, or rather Hezbollah vs Israel was a mistake. Well, the whole thing was a mistake but this was a mistake too. Hezbollah and Israel will just keep stun-locking US in their negotiations with Iran.
It might be a mistake from Trump's administration, but I doubt it's a mistake from Iran. I say Trump's administration, because surely other US based politicians/intel people/generals/pundits in general could have told them that they have no leverage over Israel, and promising things on behalf of Israel won't work. This is not an outcome that should have been a surprise to even other Americans. But also surely, Iran also knew this. Either they agreed to this because they are just deeply unserious about a ceasefire and are just taking this opportunity to make Israel look worse (and the US to look more imcompetant) knowing that this can't work. Or Iran are working to drive a wedge between Israel and Trump, knowing that this was the obvious outcome, and it was going to poop all over Trump's shiny new peace deal, and to some extent that's already working. From Irans position the most valuable thing they can get from this deal is a realistic chance of not getting attacked again. The second most valuable is sanctions getting dropped. The third not getting bombed back to the stone age (because current regime doesn't care much about their people and it's a double edged sword). Israel is not the only reason for the war but they are the biggest one. Including them and Lebanon in the deal makes sense if you are serious about a deal working out long term. And the world can absolutely force Israel to do whatever the deal says. If the US sanctions Israel then EU would be more than happy to go along with that. If the choice stands between sanctions on a small economically irrelevant country or $250/barrel oil China and Asia would jump on it. Taking the world economy hostage when you are a small export focused country is not the powerplay you think it is. Doubleupgradeobbies has a much better analysis here because he is taking into account that Hezbollah is Iran, not Lebanon. Clearly it is extremely important for Iran to keep its regional proxies and imperialistic goals, number one being the complete obliteration of Israel. And they are in a position to get absolutely everything they want. On June 22 2026 22:09 Godwrath wrote:On June 22 2026 17:21 Falling wrote:
Oh, I fully expect it's as intended from Iran's perspective.
It's a mistake for American negotiators to agree to it. I don't think it's Iran the one occupying parts of Lebanon, so maybe American negotiators should talk to whoever is. Yes it is. That is why the talks are so ridiculous. Hezbollah is Iran. Israel has a ceasefire with Lebanon that they are both agreeing too (unknown and probably unlikely if Israel will fulfill its part of leaving once Hezbollah is defeated). But Hezbollah is in Lebanon. Arguably they are a greater power than the Lebanese government. Israel wants to bomb Irans oil industry, powerplants and infrastructure turning Iran into a failed state. Iran sees itself a local power and Hezbollah as one of its ways to project that power. Israel is their main (but not only) advesary. Given the current actions just making peace with the US and leaving Israel out to do whatever they want makes no sense from Irans perspective. They will gain no permanent security since it's likely that Israel will just attack them anyway and maybe even rope the US back into it. Keeping Hezbollah in Lebanon serves two purposes. First its offensive potential against Israel in any future war. Especially now with drones being a thing. Second it's a way to test US security guarantees and how serious the US is about this deal. The may not trust the US but they absolutely can't trust Israel. If USA is willing to reign in Israel in Lebanon it's a pretty good signal there would be consequences if Israel unilaterally decides to break a future treaty. It also costs the US nothing and can be sold as a win at home. Also Israel has nukes and the biggest army in the middle east so no one takes Iran wanting to destroy Israel seriously. Not even Israel which is why they had no problem escalating this to a full on war. The only thing that matters is Iran not getting a nuke which together with an open strait is the two things the world and the US wants. As long as Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons Israels feelings about existential safety are ridiculous. I’m not sure if you forgot about Oct 7th or know that much of northern Israel is often evacuated because of threat of rocket attack. That it’s super unlikely that Iran could actually kill every single one of them without a nuke doesn’t make it ridiculous that they are scared for themselves and others. Israel is far away from Iran, they can’t project their power that far and win. That is why they have not gone to full war with Iran. I also disagree with you on “everything that matters”. I understand why Iran wants Hezbollah, I also understand why Lebanon and Israel do not. Do you not understand why Israel, Lebanon (hell most of the Middle East countries) want Irans ability to not support terrorists (their proxy armies) abroad? I get that the Us has capitulated in this like they have on so many other points. But it is no shock why Israel has not. This is far more important to them than the strait opening up. Edit: also ballistic missile s was a big deal to Israel (and other Middle East nations). And it doesn’t seem like the nuke is even off the table yet, just promises to talk about it. You have like a seed of understanding. Israel wants some things. Before they decided that a full scale war with Iran was a good plan they could wage all the proxy wars they wanted with Iran because frankly the world cared very little and the US cared even less. The time to deal with Hezbollah was then. Now we are where we are. The US (and the world) still wants 2 things: no Iranian nukes, strait open before global strategic oil reserves run out. Israel, as you astutely observed, can provide 0 of those things. The US is the only power in the world that can actually force them on Iran. However even a warcrimes level air campaign is unlikely to cut it so it would have to be a full on invasion. The US has (for many) reasons decided both of those options is a bad idea. So the only thing left is diplomacy. Now if you want something you have to to give the other side something. Iran has their demands, the US has their demands. The US can't fully make Iran do as they want or they would have. They can however make Israel do what they want. From a global perspective the things Israel care about from Iran and Hezbollah that is not nuclear related is functionally irrelevant, even ballistic missiles, because it's not existential, it's not even enough to seriously hurt Israel. For the US and the world the equation is simple: Global economy, no nukes in Iran >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Israel feelings on this. Before Israel made the brilliant decision for full on war with Iran that made them hard commit the world cared basically 0 and they could do what they wanted. Since Israel is now functionally useless when it comes to a solution, but perfectly capable (and willing) of fucking up said solutions I fully expect the US to twist their arm on this issue. It's still a negotiation so let's see where it lands but making Israel back out of Lebanon is a very cheap option for the US so I would not be surprised to see them force Israel to do it.
The factual stuff for the most part is not in dispute. Whether Israel started with with Iran or the US did depends on what US mouthpiece you listen too and depending on the hour and day you take their statement from.
Yea Israel doesn’t want it to stop, neither does Iran. They are both continuing to attack each other. It is not Israel ending the ceasefire, it’s neither ever stopping and people not paying attention just hearing about it when it gets bad.
The point of what I have written is that Israel is not some group of evil mad men who are all about killing everyone. They are the sensible part of this “coalition” who is stating the same goals that they did at the start and carrying out the actions that will bring them as close to them as they can.
It is strange how depending on the day and what fits their narrative either the US is Israel’s lap dog or vice versa.
Also, why are so sure the no nukes are part of this deal? Only thing in the MOU is to discuss it in the future. Iran has said a bunch of times they never were going to get nukes. So far they keep trying.
It is very strange that everyone (international community and observers) does not see getting Iran proxy army out of Lebanon being an important and good thing for regional stability, the people in Lebanon and Israel and the whole region. There was a reason that Israel peace deal after the last big war included Hezbollah not being in the south with the UN force being the only military allowed to be there. It is entirely sensible for Israel to not trust Iran, for the same reason of the reverse. And it is sensible for Israel to not trust whatever the UN or whoever promises.
|
On June 23 2026 01:40 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 01:14 Simberto wrote:On June 22 2026 23:15 LightSpectra wrote:On June 22 2026 21:17 Gorsameth wrote:
Ah right, the 'Trump wasn't even trying yet' defense. He can't even beat algae in a reflecting pool. Keeping algae out of a pool is a really hard problem, and no one has ever figured out how to handle that. The technology simply isn't there yet. It is totally fine that the United States of America can't do it either. I know the reflecting pool is a relatively smallbeans issue of corruption and incompetence compared to the Iran War and tariffs, but it's so funny how gracefully it encapsulates the entire right-wing worldview. Trump wants to rebuild the capital in his image like your average JRPG villain. He gives a no-bid renovation contract to one of his donors that have no idea what they're doing, then waives all of the typical reviews from federal agencies. Contractor spends $14m of the taxpayers' money to repaint it and then refill it with water. It turns into a toxic mess of algae. So contractor dumps hydrogen peroxide into the pool, making the paint peel off and float to the surface in chunks. Right-wing then says this is only happening because Obama and antifa are sabotaging the pool to embarrass Trump. Really makes you wonder how Iran, whose military budget is like 1% of the USA's, managed to beat us in a war.
Absolutely. It is basically not important compared to other stuff, but it is very symbolic and symptomatic. Corruption, self-aggrendizing actions without any real need, incompetence, failure and persecution complex. All there in one pool.
|
On June 23 2026 02:57 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 02:01 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 23 2026 00:13 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:03 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 23:37 Billyboy wrote:On June 22 2026 14:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 13:46 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:On June 22 2026 12:21 Falling wrote:
I have a feeling including the conflict in Lebanon in the MOU, or rather Hezbollah vs Israel was a mistake. Well, the whole thing was a mistake but this was a mistake too. Hezbollah and Israel will just keep stun-locking US in their negotiations with Iran.
It might be a mistake from Trump's administration, but I doubt it's a mistake from Iran. I say Trump's administration, because surely other US based politicians/intel people/generals/pundits in general could have told them that they have no leverage over Israel, and promising things on behalf of Israel won't work. This is not an outcome that should have been a surprise to even other Americans. But also surely, Iran also knew this. Either they agreed to this because they are just deeply unserious about a ceasefire and are just taking this opportunity to make Israel look worse (and the US to look more imcompetant) knowing that this can't work. Or Iran are working to drive a wedge between Israel and Trump, knowing that this was the obvious outcome, and it was going to poop all over Trump's shiny new peace deal, and to some extent that's already working. From Irans position the most valuable thing they can get from this deal is a realistic chance of not getting attacked again. The second most valuable is sanctions getting dropped. The third not getting bombed back to the stone age (because current regime doesn't care much about their people and it's a double edged sword). Israel is not the only reason for the war but they are the biggest one. Including them and Lebanon in the deal makes sense if you are serious about a deal working out long term. And the world can absolutely force Israel to do whatever the deal says. If the US sanctions Israel then EU would be more than happy to go along with that. If the choice stands between sanctions on a small economically irrelevant country or $250/barrel oil China and Asia would jump on it. Taking the world economy hostage when you are a small export focused country is not the powerplay you think it is. Doubleupgradeobbies has a much better analysis here because he is taking into account that Hezbollah is Iran, not Lebanon. Clearly it is extremely important for Iran to keep its regional proxies and imperialistic goals, number one being the complete obliteration of Israel. And they are in a position to get absolutely everything they want. On June 22 2026 22:09 Godwrath wrote:On June 22 2026 17:21 Falling wrote:
Oh, I fully expect it's as intended from Iran's perspective.
It's a mistake for American negotiators to agree to it. I don't think it's Iran the one occupying parts of Lebanon, so maybe American negotiators should talk to whoever is. Yes it is. That is why the talks are so ridiculous. Hezbollah is Iran. Israel has a ceasefire with Lebanon that they are both agreeing too (unknown and probably unlikely if Israel will fulfill its part of leaving once Hezbollah is defeated). But Hezbollah is in Lebanon. Arguably they are a greater power than the Lebanese government. Israel wants to bomb Irans oil industry, powerplants and infrastructure turning Iran into a failed state. Iran sees itself a local power and Hezbollah as one of its ways to project that power. Israel is their main (but not only) advesary. Given the current actions just making peace with the US and leaving Israel out to do whatever they want makes no sense from Irans perspective. They will gain no permanent security since it's likely that Israel will just attack them anyway and maybe even rope the US back into it. Keeping Hezbollah in Lebanon serves two purposes. First its offensive potential against Israel in any future war. Especially now with drones being a thing. Second it's a way to test US security guarantees and how serious the US is about this deal. The may not trust the US but they absolutely can't trust Israel. If USA is willing to reign in Israel in Lebanon it's a pretty good signal there would be consequences if Israel unilaterally decides to break a future treaty. It also costs the US nothing and can be sold as a win at home. Also Israel has nukes and the biggest army in the middle east so no one takes Iran wanting to destroy Israel seriously. Not even Israel which is why they had no problem escalating this to a full on war. The only thing that matters is Iran not getting a nuke which together with an open strait is the two things the world and the US wants. As long as Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons Israels feelings about existential safety are ridiculous. I’m not sure if you forgot about Oct 7th or know that much of northern Israel is often evacuated because of threat of rocket attack. That it’s super unlikely that Iran could actually kill every single one of them without a nuke doesn’t make it ridiculous that they are scared for themselves and others. Israel is far away from Iran, they can’t project their power that far and win. That is why they have not gone to full war with Iran. I also disagree with you on “everything that matters”. I understand why Iran wants Hezbollah, I also understand why Lebanon and Israel do not. Do you not understand why Israel, Lebanon (hell most of the Middle East countries) want Irans ability to not support terrorists (their proxy armies) abroad? I get that the Us has capitulated in this like they have on so many other points. But it is no shock why Israel has not. This is far more important to them than the strait opening up. Edit: also ballistic missile s was a big deal to Israel (and other Middle East nations). And it doesn’t seem like the nuke is even off the table yet, just promises to talk about it. You have like a seed of understanding. Israel wants some things. Before they decided that a full scale war with Iran was a good plan they could wage all the proxy wars they wanted with Iran because frankly the world cared very little and the US cared even less. The time to deal with Hezbollah was then. Now we are where we are. The US (and the world) still wants 2 things: no Iranian nukes, strait open before global strategic oil reserves run out. Israel, as you astutely observed, can provide 0 of those things. The US is the only power in the world that can actually force them on Iran. However even a warcrimes level air campaign is unlikely to cut it so it would have to be a full on invasion. The US has (for many) reasons decided both of those options is a bad idea. So the only thing left is diplomacy. Now if you want something you have to to give the other side something. Iran has their demands, the US has their demands. The US can't fully make Iran do as they want or they would have. They can however make Israel do what they want. From a global perspective the things Israel care about from Iran and Hezbollah that is not nuclear related is functionally irrelevant, even ballistic missiles, because it's not existential, it's not even enough to seriously hurt Israel. For the US and the world the equation is simple: Global economy, no nukes in Iran >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Israel feelings on this. Before Israel made the brilliant decision for full on war with Iran that made them hard commit the world cared basically 0 and they could do what they wanted. Since Israel is now functionally useless when it comes to a solution, but perfectly capable (and willing) of fucking up said solutions I fully expect the US to twist their arm on this issue. It's still a negotiation so let's see where it lands but making Israel back out of Lebanon is a very cheap option for the US so I would not be surprised to see them force Israel to do it. The factual stuff for the most part is not in dispute. Whether Israel started with with Iran or the US did depends on what US mouthpiece you listen too and depending on the hour and day you take their statement from. Yea Israel doesn’t want it to stop, neither does Iran. They are both continuing to attack each other. It is not Israel ending the ceasefire, it’s neither ever stopping and people not paying attention just hearing about it when it gets bad. The point of what I have written is that Israel is not some group of evil mad men who are all about killing everyone. They are the sensible part of this “coalition” who is stating the same goals that they did at the start and carrying out the actions that will bring them as close to them as they can. It is strange how depending on the day and what fits their narrative either the US is Israel’s lap dog or vice versa. Also, why are so sure the no nukes are part of this deal? Only thing in the MOU is to discuss it in the future. Iran has said a bunch of times they never were going to get nukes. So far they keep trying. It is very strange that everyone (international community and observers) does not see getting Iran proxy army out of Lebanon being an important and good thing for regional stability, the people in Lebanon and Israel and the whole region. There was a reason that Israel peace deal after the last big war included Hezbollah not being in the south with the UN force being the only military allowed to be there. It is entirely sensible for Israel to not trust Iran, for the same reason of the reverse. And it is sensible for Israel to not trust whatever the UN or whoever promises.
I'm not saying nukes are in the deal I'm saying what the world in general wants is for Iran to not have nukes and for the strait to be open so oil prices don't explode and the world doesn't have a new financial crisis.
An Obama type deal with inspections will absolutely be enough for the world to stop caring again.
It's also a matter of scale. A new global economic crisis will likely kill more people just from people commiting suicide after they lose their job than Israelis killed by Iran and Hezbollah by orders of magnitude. Then there are people who die because of budget cuts to healthcare ad infinitum. Compounded by the fact that countries care far more about their citizens than they do about other countries citizens.
Israels national concerns are valid and they should care about them. The problem is that now they have brought those local concerns onto a global level. And compared to that Israels problems are insignificant.
If the choice is between global economic crisis or the Iran war ending the world will choose a resolution of the conflict.
If the end of the conflict depends on disagreement between Iran and Israel over Israeli presence in Lebanon there are two choices.
Pressure Iran to give that demand up. But basically everything that can be done to Iran has already been done. They have lost much of what they can lose and they don't care that much for what's left. There are not good pressure points left. The world does not want to kill millions of Iranians over this and still have trade disrupted for months.
Israel however, have a lot more to lose and very easy pressure points. Cut off from the world they will crumble in weeks.
So if Israel chooses to place their local national interests against the global economic interests of the rest of the world they are going to get fucked and they should have thought about that before changing the table.
Bibbi is playing this like it's still low stakes poker but the game has moved to the high rollers table now.
|
United States44122 Posts
On June 23 2026 01:50 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 01:30 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 23 2026 01:03 Biff The Understudy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:26 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 23 2026 00:04 Biff The Understudy wrote:
It’s 45 degrees (113F) in France today, and 41 in Paris.
But hey, climate change is a cult and let’s drill clean, beautiful coal, baby. As if on cue, even some Republican senators are occasionally standing up to Trump's anti-science / anti-environment / pro-climate-change agenda: "On Wednesday, the Senate passed a bipartisan bill establishing that no federal funds shall be used to “decommission or descope” the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) system, a $368 million network critical to understanding climate change and marine ecosystems. The Trump administration has abandoned plans to dismantle a decade-old, deep-ocean observation network that scientists have used to track changes in the ocean and monitor marine heatwaves and coastal flooding." https://earth.org/trump-administration-drops-plans-to-dismantle-key-ocean-observation-network/ Unfortunately, Trump is still continuing to try to pressure everyone else to ignore climate change: "The fate of a World Bank climate target is hanging in the balance as the Trump administration pressures the institution to jettison what it calls a “distortionary” and “nonsensical” policy. The bank pledged three years ago to devote 45 percent of its funding to climate-related projects by 2025. It exceeded that goal by directing $39.2 billion, or 48 percent of its financing last year, to projects with climate benefits. It came as the Trump administration has called on the institution to abandon the target and increase the number of natural gas projects in its portfolio." https://www.eenews.net/articles/us-pushes-world-bank-climate-target-to-the-brink/ "The Trump administration revealed the list of materials that the National Park Service removed from parks across the country that relate to civil rights, diverse populations, science, and the environment. ... Examples of items that were removed include signs about climate change at parks like Acadia National Park in Maine and Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge in New York; materials involving civil rights at the National Mall in Washington, D.C. and at the Medgar and Myrtle Evans Home National Monument in Jackson, Mississippi; materials involving slavery at the President’s House in Philadelphia and materials on women’s rights at the Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge at the Gateway National Recreation Area in New York." https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-administration-reveals-list-civil-rights-climate-change/story?id=133997786 Probably the worst thing Trump will have done. The consequences of those years for future generations will be enormous. I think the speed and the visibility of environmental degradation and climate change is the most scary thing I have witnessed in my lifetime. But hey, won’t touch the bottom line of the oil industry. Some people are making serious money, so let the world burn in peace. Back in 2016, before the first election that Trump won, some Trump supporters had tried to argue "Trump is already a billionaire, so he won't need to sell out to immoral special interest groups, he won't be influenced by bribes, and he generally won't be distracted by trying to make any more money". And then it turned out that he was more obsessed with increasing his personal wealth than any other American politician in modern history. "I have enough money" Said (almost) no billionaire ever.
There was the one guy who founded and privately owned an outdoor clothing brand. He gave away all the profits from it but it was profitable enough that he was still a paper billionaire because if private equity were to buy it from him they’d pay over a billion. So despite being poor and not keeping the profits he was still technically asset rich because it generated profits and had value.
So he gave the entire company to a non profit with a charter that required them to give away the profits so he no longer owned the company.
The internet still got mad about it and claimed it was some kind of tax dodge because he wasn’t paying taxes on billions (because he no longer had anything, he impoverished himself).
There was also that Irish guy who secretly funded like half of Ireland’s charities until his death.
|
|
|
Any chance this is satire?
|
On June 23 2026 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Any chance this is satire?
Could be a coded message.
Lobsters and shrimps traditionally carry some weight in the party.
Maybe they got beef with Denmark. Or the green party.
|
On June 23 2026 05:26 Vivax wrote:Could be a coded message.
Hear me out: do any Red Lobsters have a secret basement like MAGAts thought Comet Pizza did?
|
On June 23 2026 05:44 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 05:26 Vivax wrote:On June 23 2026 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Any chance this is satire? Could be a coded message. Hear me out: do any Red Lobsters have a secret basement like MAGAts thought Comet Pizza did?
Are Republicans secretly Team Rocket?
|
On June 23 2026 05:44 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 05:26 Vivax wrote:On June 23 2026 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Any chance this is satire? Could be a coded message. Hear me out: do any Red Lobsters have a secret basement like MAGAts thought Comet Pizza did?
If they do, it's probably been under attack by various organizations that are allergic to crustaceans or by parasitic lifeforms.
Blood-sucking vegans and the like.
Kinda old stuff. The most important question is if there IS a secret basement when you haven't routinely checked if there is one. Do I want to know ?
Why'd you write cellar door on a board anyway.
Not the academic field I want to proceed down but it's interesting to think about.
|
doubleupgradeobbies!
Australia1315 Posts
On June 23 2026 02:57 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 02:01 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 23 2026 00:13 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:03 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 23:37 Billyboy wrote:On June 22 2026 14:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 13:46 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:On June 22 2026 12:21 Falling wrote:
I have a feeling including the conflict in Lebanon in the MOU, or rather Hezbollah vs Israel was a mistake. Well, the whole thing was a mistake but this was a mistake too. Hezbollah and Israel will just keep stun-locking US in their negotiations with Iran.
It might be a mistake from Trump's administration, but I doubt it's a mistake from Iran. I say Trump's administration, because surely other US based politicians/intel people/generals/pundits in general could have told them that they have no leverage over Israel, and promising things on behalf of Israel won't work. This is not an outcome that should have been a surprise to even other Americans. But also surely, Iran also knew this. Either they agreed to this because they are just deeply unserious about a ceasefire and are just taking this opportunity to make Israel look worse (and the US to look more imcompetant) knowing that this can't work. Or Iran are working to drive a wedge between Israel and Trump, knowing that this was the obvious outcome, and it was going to poop all over Trump's shiny new peace deal, and to some extent that's already working. From Irans position the most valuable thing they can get from this deal is a realistic chance of not getting attacked again. The second most valuable is sanctions getting dropped. The third not getting bombed back to the stone age (because current regime doesn't care much about their people and it's a double edged sword). Israel is not the only reason for the war but they are the biggest one. Including them and Lebanon in the deal makes sense if you are serious about a deal working out long term. And the world can absolutely force Israel to do whatever the deal says. If the US sanctions Israel then EU would be more than happy to go along with that. If the choice stands between sanctions on a small economically irrelevant country or $250/barrel oil China and Asia would jump on it. Taking the world economy hostage when you are a small export focused country is not the powerplay you think it is. Doubleupgradeobbies has a much better analysis here because he is taking into account that Hezbollah is Iran, not Lebanon. Clearly it is extremely important for Iran to keep its regional proxies and imperialistic goals, number one being the complete obliteration of Israel. And they are in a position to get absolutely everything they want. On June 22 2026 22:09 Godwrath wrote:On June 22 2026 17:21 Falling wrote:
Oh, I fully expect it's as intended from Iran's perspective.
It's a mistake for American negotiators to agree to it. I don't think it's Iran the one occupying parts of Lebanon, so maybe American negotiators should talk to whoever is. Yes it is. That is why the talks are so ridiculous. Hezbollah is Iran. Israel has a ceasefire with Lebanon that they are both agreeing too (unknown and probably unlikely if Israel will fulfill its part of leaving once Hezbollah is defeated). But Hezbollah is in Lebanon. Arguably they are a greater power than the Lebanese government. Israel wants to bomb Irans oil industry, powerplants and infrastructure turning Iran into a failed state. Iran sees itself a local power and Hezbollah as one of its ways to project that power. Israel is their main (but not only) advesary. Given the current actions just making peace with the US and leaving Israel out to do whatever they want makes no sense from Irans perspective. They will gain no permanent security since it's likely that Israel will just attack them anyway and maybe even rope the US back into it. Keeping Hezbollah in Lebanon serves two purposes. First its offensive potential against Israel in any future war. Especially now with drones being a thing. Second it's a way to test US security guarantees and how serious the US is about this deal. The may not trust the US but they absolutely can't trust Israel. If USA is willing to reign in Israel in Lebanon it's a pretty good signal there would be consequences if Israel unilaterally decides to break a future treaty. It also costs the US nothing and can be sold as a win at home. Also Israel has nukes and the biggest army in the middle east so no one takes Iran wanting to destroy Israel seriously. Not even Israel which is why they had no problem escalating this to a full on war. The only thing that matters is Iran not getting a nuke which together with an open strait is the two things the world and the US wants. As long as Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons Israels feelings about existential safety are ridiculous. I’m not sure if you forgot about Oct 7th or know that much of northern Israel is often evacuated because of threat of rocket attack. That it’s super unlikely that Iran could actually kill every single one of them without a nuke doesn’t make it ridiculous that they are scared for themselves and others. Israel is far away from Iran, they can’t project their power that far and win. That is why they have not gone to full war with Iran. I also disagree with you on “everything that matters”. I understand why Iran wants Hezbollah, I also understand why Lebanon and Israel do not. Do you not understand why Israel, Lebanon (hell most of the Middle East countries) want Irans ability to not support terrorists (their proxy armies) abroad? I get that the Us has capitulated in this like they have on so many other points. But it is no shock why Israel has not. This is far more important to them than the strait opening up. Edit: also ballistic missile s was a big deal to Israel (and other Middle East nations). And it doesn’t seem like the nuke is even off the table yet, just promises to talk about it. You have like a seed of understanding. Israel wants some things. Before they decided that a full scale war with Iran was a good plan they could wage all the proxy wars they wanted with Iran because frankly the world cared very little and the US cared even less. The time to deal with Hezbollah was then. Now we are where we are. The US (and the world) still wants 2 things: no Iranian nukes, strait open before global strategic oil reserves run out. Israel, as you astutely observed, can provide 0 of those things. The US is the only power in the world that can actually force them on Iran. However even a warcrimes level air campaign is unlikely to cut it so it would have to be a full on invasion. The US has (for many) reasons decided both of those options is a bad idea. So the only thing left is diplomacy. Now if you want something you have to to give the other side something. Iran has their demands, the US has their demands. The US can't fully make Iran do as they want or they would have. They can however make Israel do what they want. From a global perspective the things Israel care about from Iran and Hezbollah that is not nuclear related is functionally irrelevant, even ballistic missiles, because it's not existential, it's not even enough to seriously hurt Israel. For the US and the world the equation is simple: Global economy, no nukes in Iran >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Israel feelings on this. Before Israel made the brilliant decision for full on war with Iran that made them hard commit the world cared basically 0 and they could do what they wanted. Since Israel is now functionally useless when it comes to a solution, but perfectly capable (and willing) of fucking up said solutions I fully expect the US to twist their arm on this issue. It's still a negotiation so let's see where it lands but making Israel back out of Lebanon is a very cheap option for the US so I would not be surprised to see them force Israel to do it. The factual stuff for the most part is not in dispute. Whether Israel started with with Iran or the US did depends on what US mouthpiece you listen too and depending on the hour and day you take their statement from. Yea Israel doesn’t want it to stop, neither does Iran. They are both continuing to attack each other. It is not Israel ending the ceasefire, it’s neither ever stopping and people not paying attention just hearing about it when it gets bad. The point of what I have written is that Israel is not some group of evil mad men who are all about killing everyone. They are the sensible part of this “coalition” who is stating the same goals that they did at the start and carrying out the actions that will bring them as close to them as they can. It is strange how depending on the day and what fits their narrative either the US is Israel’s lap dog or vice versa. Also, why are so sure the no nukes are part of this deal? Only thing in the MOU is to discuss it in the future. Iran has said a bunch of times they never were going to get nukes. So far they keep trying. It is very strange that everyone (international community and observers) does not see getting Iran proxy army out of Lebanon being an important and good thing for regional stability, the people in Lebanon and Israel and the whole region. There was a reason that Israel peace deal after the last big war included Hezbollah not being in the south with the UN force being the only military allowed to be there. It is entirely sensible for Israel to not trust Iran, for the same reason of the reverse. And it is sensible for Israel to not trust whatever the UN or whoever promises.
Ok, while I took into account that Iran having significant influence over Hezbollah, I wouldn't go as far as to say Hezbollah is Iran.
Yes they are an Iranian proxy, but they are an Iranian proxy in the same way as Houthis, I'm sure Iran would love if the Houthis closed off the Bab El-Mandeb, but the Houthis are still their own organisation with their own local interest.
Hezbollah was the legitimate party in charge of Lebanon not that long ago, they are not some tiny operation entirely run by Iran. They enjoy significant (if very polarized) local support. Yes Iran has a lot of sway over Hezbollah, as they supply a lot of the financial/material backing, but while Israel is literally occupying Lebanon I don't think Iran can just tell Hezbollah to stand down and disband either.
When I said Iran surely knew this would happen, I didn't mean that they were going to tell Hezbollah to keep fighting (I don't think they could call off Hezbollah right now if they tried). I mean, they, like everyone else recognize that neither Israel nor Hezbollah have any motivation to stop the fighting, neither care to stop fighting, or about the world economy or whatever. A deal predicated on 2 parties ceasing hostilities when neither of thsoe parties actually consented is meaningless. This was always going to be the outcome.
Also as to the Iran saying they don't want a nuke, it's been pretty obvious to the neutral observer that their long standing policy is always to maintain the capability of getting a nuke in a few months, but never actually building that nuke if they can help it. Probably as deterrence against the exact kind of situation they are in now (or worse).
For the relationship between the US and Israel, I somewhat agree with you. I don't think the US can pressure Israel to stop. Not because the US doesn't *technically* have leverage, but because their system (especially how their campaign financing works) is not set up to be able to apply that pressure. Unless Trump throws a massive tantrum and starts to actually sanction Netanyahu/Israel (Ironically, he might also be the only president capable of this, as I don't think the US has otherwise had a president unstable enough to about turn on an close ally that quickly). Bibi can basically ignore Trump's ravings, and let the lobbying work it's magic. In that sense, the US is always Israel's lapdog, every day.
This leaves the world up shit's creek. Both Israel and Iran are being rational actors that basically aren't serious about a ceasefire, and both seem hellbent on ending each other as a functioning state.
I thought there was a world where Iran just accepted US withdrawal (with it's nice $300 billion withdrawal bonus), and accepted it was going to keep fighting Israel (because what is the alternative?). But if this is not really on the table then there is no current path to the opening of the strait.
|
On June 23 2026 03:26 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 02:57 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 02:01 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 23 2026 00:13 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:03 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 23:37 Billyboy wrote:On June 22 2026 14:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 13:46 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:On June 22 2026 12:21 Falling wrote:
I have a feeling including the conflict in Lebanon in the MOU, or rather Hezbollah vs Israel was a mistake. Well, the whole thing was a mistake but this was a mistake too. Hezbollah and Israel will just keep stun-locking US in their negotiations with Iran.
It might be a mistake from Trump's administration, but I doubt it's a mistake from Iran. I say Trump's administration, because surely other US based politicians/intel people/generals/pundits in general could have told them that they have no leverage over Israel, and promising things on behalf of Israel won't work. This is not an outcome that should have been a surprise to even other Americans. But also surely, Iran also knew this. Either they agreed to this because they are just deeply unserious about a ceasefire and are just taking this opportunity to make Israel look worse (and the US to look more imcompetant) knowing that this can't work. Or Iran are working to drive a wedge between Israel and Trump, knowing that this was the obvious outcome, and it was going to poop all over Trump's shiny new peace deal, and to some extent that's already working. From Irans position the most valuable thing they can get from this deal is a realistic chance of not getting attacked again. The second most valuable is sanctions getting dropped. The third not getting bombed back to the stone age (because current regime doesn't care much about their people and it's a double edged sword). Israel is not the only reason for the war but they are the biggest one. Including them and Lebanon in the deal makes sense if you are serious about a deal working out long term. And the world can absolutely force Israel to do whatever the deal says. If the US sanctions Israel then EU would be more than happy to go along with that. If the choice stands between sanctions on a small economically irrelevant country or $250/barrel oil China and Asia would jump on it. Taking the world economy hostage when you are a small export focused country is not the powerplay you think it is. Doubleupgradeobbies has a much better analysis here because he is taking into account that Hezbollah is Iran, not Lebanon. Clearly it is extremely important for Iran to keep its regional proxies and imperialistic goals, number one being the complete obliteration of Israel. And they are in a position to get absolutely everything they want. On June 22 2026 22:09 Godwrath wrote:On June 22 2026 17:21 Falling wrote:
Oh, I fully expect it's as intended from Iran's perspective.
It's a mistake for American negotiators to agree to it. I don't think it's Iran the one occupying parts of Lebanon, so maybe American negotiators should talk to whoever is. Yes it is. That is why the talks are so ridiculous. Hezbollah is Iran. Israel has a ceasefire with Lebanon that they are both agreeing too (unknown and probably unlikely if Israel will fulfill its part of leaving once Hezbollah is defeated). But Hezbollah is in Lebanon. Arguably they are a greater power than the Lebanese government. Israel wants to bomb Irans oil industry, powerplants and infrastructure turning Iran into a failed state. Iran sees itself a local power and Hezbollah as one of its ways to project that power. Israel is their main (but not only) advesary. Given the current actions just making peace with the US and leaving Israel out to do whatever they want makes no sense from Irans perspective. They will gain no permanent security since it's likely that Israel will just attack them anyway and maybe even rope the US back into it. Keeping Hezbollah in Lebanon serves two purposes. First its offensive potential against Israel in any future war. Especially now with drones being a thing. Second it's a way to test US security guarantees and how serious the US is about this deal. The may not trust the US but they absolutely can't trust Israel. If USA is willing to reign in Israel in Lebanon it's a pretty good signal there would be consequences if Israel unilaterally decides to break a future treaty. It also costs the US nothing and can be sold as a win at home. Also Israel has nukes and the biggest army in the middle east so no one takes Iran wanting to destroy Israel seriously. Not even Israel which is why they had no problem escalating this to a full on war. The only thing that matters is Iran not getting a nuke which together with an open strait is the two things the world and the US wants. As long as Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons Israels feelings about existential safety are ridiculous. I’m not sure if you forgot about Oct 7th or know that much of northern Israel is often evacuated because of threat of rocket attack. That it’s super unlikely that Iran could actually kill every single one of them without a nuke doesn’t make it ridiculous that they are scared for themselves and others. Israel is far away from Iran, they can’t project their power that far and win. That is why they have not gone to full war with Iran. I also disagree with you on “everything that matters”. I understand why Iran wants Hezbollah, I also understand why Lebanon and Israel do not. Do you not understand why Israel, Lebanon (hell most of the Middle East countries) want Irans ability to not support terrorists (their proxy armies) abroad? I get that the Us has capitulated in this like they have on so many other points. But it is no shock why Israel has not. This is far more important to them than the strait opening up. Edit: also ballistic missile s was a big deal to Israel (and other Middle East nations). And it doesn’t seem like the nuke is even off the table yet, just promises to talk about it. You have like a seed of understanding. Israel wants some things. Before they decided that a full scale war with Iran was a good plan they could wage all the proxy wars they wanted with Iran because frankly the world cared very little and the US cared even less. The time to deal with Hezbollah was then. Now we are where we are. The US (and the world) still wants 2 things: no Iranian nukes, strait open before global strategic oil reserves run out. Israel, as you astutely observed, can provide 0 of those things. The US is the only power in the world that can actually force them on Iran. However even a warcrimes level air campaign is unlikely to cut it so it would have to be a full on invasion. The US has (for many) reasons decided both of those options is a bad idea. So the only thing left is diplomacy. Now if you want something you have to to give the other side something. Iran has their demands, the US has their demands. The US can't fully make Iran do as they want or they would have. They can however make Israel do what they want. From a global perspective the things Israel care about from Iran and Hezbollah that is not nuclear related is functionally irrelevant, even ballistic missiles, because it's not existential, it's not even enough to seriously hurt Israel. For the US and the world the equation is simple: Global economy, no nukes in Iran >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Israel feelings on this. Before Israel made the brilliant decision for full on war with Iran that made them hard commit the world cared basically 0 and they could do what they wanted. Since Israel is now functionally useless when it comes to a solution, but perfectly capable (and willing) of fucking up said solutions I fully expect the US to twist their arm on this issue. It's still a negotiation so let's see where it lands but making Israel back out of Lebanon is a very cheap option for the US so I would not be surprised to see them force Israel to do it. The factual stuff for the most part is not in dispute. Whether Israel started with with Iran or the US did depends on what US mouthpiece you listen too and depending on the hour and day you take their statement from. Yea Israel doesn’t want it to stop, neither does Iran. They are both continuing to attack each other. It is not Israel ending the ceasefire, it’s neither ever stopping and people not paying attention just hearing about it when it gets bad. The point of what I have written is that Israel is not some group of evil mad men who are all about killing everyone. They are the sensible part of this “coalition” who is stating the same goals that they did at the start and carrying out the actions that will bring them as close to them as they can. It is strange how depending on the day and what fits their narrative either the US is Israel’s lap dog or vice versa. Also, why are so sure the no nukes are part of this deal? Only thing in the MOU is to discuss it in the future. Iran has said a bunch of times they never were going to get nukes. So far they keep trying. It is very strange that everyone (international community and observers) does not see getting Iran proxy army out of Lebanon being an important and good thing for regional stability, the people in Lebanon and Israel and the whole region. There was a reason that Israel peace deal after the last big war included Hezbollah not being in the south with the UN force being the only military allowed to be there. It is entirely sensible for Israel to not trust Iran, for the same reason of the reverse. And it is sensible for Israel to not trust whatever the UN or whoever promises. I'm not saying nukes are in the deal I'm saying what the world in general wants is for Iran to not have nukes and for the strait to be open so oil prices don't explode and the world doesn't have a new financial crisis. An Obama type deal with inspections will absolutely be enough for the world to stop caring again. It's also a matter of scale. A new global economic crisis will likely kill more people just from people commiting suicide after they lose their job than Israelis killed by Iran and Hezbollah by orders of magnitude. Then there are people who die because of budget cuts to healthcare ad infinitum. Compounded by the fact that countries care far more about their citizens than they do about other countries citizens. Israels national concerns are valid and they should care about them. The problem is that now they have brought those local concerns onto a global level. And compared to that Israels problems are insignificant. If the choice is between global economic crisis or the Iran war ending the world will choose a resolution of the conflict. If the end of the conflict depends on disagreement between Iran and Israel over Israeli presence in Lebanon there are two choices. Pressure Iran to give that demand up. But basically everything that can be done to Iran has already been done. They have lost much of what they can lose and they don't care that much for what's left. There are not good pressure points left. The world does not want to kill millions of Iranians over this and still have trade disrupted for months. Israel however, have a lot more to lose and very easy pressure points. Cut off from the world they will crumble in weeks. So if Israel chooses to place their local national interests against the global economic interests of the rest of the world they are going to get fucked and they should have thought about that before changing the table. Bibbi is playing this like it's still low stakes poker but the game has moved to the high rollers table now.
I think you far underestimate the Israeli resolve, and Netanyahu can't survive anything but victory, politically and freedom related. I also think you far under estimate their influence and also that many people agree with what they are trying to do.
What you are suggesting is the popular choice, it will be better short term, but it fucks the middle east and beyond for a long, long time.
On June 23 2026 08:37 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2026 02:57 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 02:01 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 23 2026 00:13 Billyboy wrote:On June 23 2026 00:03 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 23:37 Billyboy wrote:On June 22 2026 14:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On June 22 2026 13:46 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:On June 22 2026 12:21 Falling wrote:
I have a feeling including the conflict in Lebanon in the MOU, or rather Hezbollah vs Israel was a mistake. Well, the whole thing was a mistake but this was a mistake too. Hezbollah and Israel will just keep stun-locking US in their negotiations with Iran.
It might be a mistake from Trump's administration, but I doubt it's a mistake from Iran. I say Trump's administration, because surely other US based politicians/intel people/generals/pundits in general could have told them that they have no leverage over Israel, and promising things on behalf of Israel won't work. This is not an outcome that should have been a surprise to even other Americans. But also surely, Iran also knew this. Either they agreed to this because they are just deeply unserious about a ceasefire and are just taking this opportunity to make Israel look worse (and the US to look more imcompetant) knowing that this can't work. Or Iran are working to drive a wedge between Israel and Trump, knowing that this was the obvious outcome, and it was going to poop all over Trump's shiny new peace deal, and to some extent that's already working. From Irans position the most valuable thing they can get from this deal is a realistic chance of not getting attacked again. The second most valuable is sanctions getting dropped. The third not getting bombed back to the stone age (because current regime doesn't care much about their people and it's a double edged sword). Israel is not the only reason for the war but they are the biggest one. Including them and Lebanon in the deal makes sense if you are serious about a deal working out long term. And the world can absolutely force Israel to do whatever the deal says. If the US sanctions Israel then EU would be more than happy to go along with that. If the choice stands between sanctions on a small economically irrelevant country or $250/barrel oil China and Asia would jump on it. Taking the world economy hostage when you are a small export focused country is not the powerplay you think it is. Doubleupgradeobbies has a much better analysis here because he is taking into account that Hezbollah is Iran, not Lebanon. Clearly it is extremely important for Iran to keep its regional proxies and imperialistic goals, number one being the complete obliteration of Israel. And they are in a position to get absolutely everything they want. On June 22 2026 22:09 Godwrath wrote:On June 22 2026 17:21 Falling wrote:
Oh, I fully expect it's as intended from Iran's perspective.
It's a mistake for American negotiators to agree to it. I don't think it's Iran the one occupying parts of Lebanon, so maybe American negotiators should talk to whoever is. Yes it is. That is why the talks are so ridiculous. Hezbollah is Iran. Israel has a ceasefire with Lebanon that they are both agreeing too (unknown and probably unlikely if Israel will fulfill its part of leaving once Hezbollah is defeated). But Hezbollah is in Lebanon. Arguably they are a greater power than the Lebanese government. Israel wants to bomb Irans oil industry, powerplants and infrastructure turning Iran into a failed state. Iran sees itself a local power and Hezbollah as one of its ways to project that power. Israel is their main (but not only) advesary. Given the current actions just making peace with the US and leaving Israel out to do whatever they want makes no sense from Irans perspective. They will gain no permanent security since it's likely that Israel will just attack them anyway and maybe even rope the US back into it. Keeping Hezbollah in Lebanon serves two purposes. First its offensive potential against Israel in any future war. Especially now with drones being a thing. Second it's a way to test US security guarantees and how serious the US is about this deal. The may not trust the US but they absolutely can't trust Israel. If USA is willing to reign in Israel in Lebanon it's a pretty good signal there would be consequences if Israel unilaterally decides to break a future treaty. It also costs the US nothing and can be sold as a win at home. Also Israel has nukes and the biggest army in the middle east so no one takes Iran wanting to destroy Israel seriously. Not even Israel which is why they had no problem escalating this to a full on war. The only thing that matters is Iran not getting a nuke which together with an open strait is the two things the world and the US wants. As long as Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons Israels feelings about existential safety are ridiculous. I’m not sure if you forgot about Oct 7th or know that much of northern Israel is often evacuated because of threat of rocket attack. That it’s super unlikely that Iran could actually kill every single one of them without a nuke doesn’t make it ridiculous that they are scared for themselves and others. Israel is far away from Iran, they can’t project their power that far and win. That is why they have not gone to full war with Iran. I also disagree with you on “everything that matters”. I understand why Iran wants Hezbollah, I also understand why Lebanon and Israel do not. Do you not understand why Israel, Lebanon (hell most of the Middle East countries) want Irans ability to not support terrorists (their proxy armies) abroad? I get that the Us has capitulated in this like they have on so many other points. But it is no shock why Israel has not. This is far more important to them than the strait opening up. Edit: also ballistic missile s was a big deal to Israel (and other Middle East nations). And it doesn’t seem like the nuke is even off the table yet, just promises to talk about it. You have like a seed of understanding. Israel wants some things. Before they decided that a full scale war with Iran was a good plan they could wage all the proxy wars they wanted with Iran because frankly the world cared very little and the US cared even less. The time to deal with Hezbollah was then. Now we are where we are. The US (and the world) still wants 2 things: no Iranian nukes, strait open before global strategic oil reserves run out. Israel, as you astutely observed, can provide 0 of those things. The US is the only power in the world that can actually force them on Iran. However even a warcrimes level air campaign is unlikely to cut it so it would have to be a full on invasion. The US has (for many) reasons decided both of those options is a bad idea. So the only thing left is diplomacy. Now if you want something you have to to give the other side something. Iran has their demands, the US has their demands. The US can't fully make Iran do as they want or they would have. They can however make Israel do what they want. From a global perspective the things Israel care about from Iran and Hezbollah that is not nuclear related is functionally irrelevant, even ballistic missiles, because it's not existential, it's not even enough to seriously hurt Israel. For the US and the world the equation is simple: Global economy, no nukes in Iran >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Israel feelings on this. Before Israel made the brilliant decision for full on war with Iran that made them hard commit the world cared basically 0 and they could do what they wanted. Since Israel is now functionally useless when it comes to a solution, but perfectly capable (and willing) of fucking up said solutions I fully expect the US to twist their arm on this issue. It's still a negotiation so let's see where it lands but making Israel back out of Lebanon is a very cheap option for the US so I would not be surprised to see them force Israel to do it. The factual stuff for the most part is not in dispute. Whether Israel started with with Iran or the US did depends on what US mouthpiece you listen too and depending on the hour and day you take their statement from. Yea Israel doesn’t want it to stop, neither does Iran. They are both continuing to attack each other. It is not Israel ending the ceasefire, it’s neither ever stopping and people not paying attention just hearing about it when it gets bad. The point of what I have written is that Israel is not some group of evil mad men who are all about killing everyone. They are the sensible part of this “coalition” who is stating the same goals that they did at the start and carrying out the actions that will bring them as close to them as they can. It is strange how depending on the day and what fits their narrative either the US is Israel’s lap dog or vice versa. Also, why are so sure the no nukes are part of this deal? Only thing in the MOU is to discuss it in the future. Iran has said a bunch of times they never were going to get nukes. So far they keep trying. It is very strange that everyone (international community and observers) does not see getting Iran proxy army out of Lebanon being an important and good thing for regional stability, the people in Lebanon and Israel and the whole region. There was a reason that Israel peace deal after the last big war included Hezbollah not being in the south with the UN force being the only military allowed to be there. It is entirely sensible for Israel to not trust Iran, for the same reason of the reverse. And it is sensible for Israel to not trust whatever the UN or whoever promises. Ok, while I took into account that Iran having significant influence over Hezbollah, I wouldn't go as far as to say Hezbollah is Iran. Yes they are an Iranian proxy, but they are an Iranian proxy in the same way as Houthis, I'm sure Iran would love if the Houthis closed off the Bab El-Mandeb, but the Houthis are still their own organisation with their own local interest. Hezbollah was the legitimate party in charge of Lebanon not that long ago, they are not some tiny operation entirely run by Iran. They enjoy significant (if very polarized) local support. Yes Iran has a lot of sway over Hezbollah, as they supply a lot of the financial/material backing, but while Israel is literally occupying Lebanon I don't think Iran can just tell Hezbollah to stand down and disband either. When I said Iran surely knew this would happen, I didn't mean that they were going to tell Hezbollah to keep fighting (I don't think they could call off Hezbollah right now if they tried). I mean, they, like everyone else recognize that neither Israel nor Hezbollah have any motivation to stop the fighting, neither care to stop fighting, or about the world economy or whatever. A deal predicated on 2 parties ceasing hostilities when neither of thsoe parties actually consented is meaningless. This was always going to be the outcome. Also as to the Iran saying they don't want a nuke, it's been pretty obvious to the neutral observer that their long standing policy is always to maintain the capability of getting a nuke in a few months, but never actually building that nuke if they can help it. Probably as deterrence against the exact kind of situation they are in now (or worse). For the relationship between the US and Israel, I somewhat agree with you. I don't think the US can pressure Israel to stop. Not because the US doesn't *technically* have leverage, but because their system (especially how their campaign financing works) is not set up to be able to apply that pressure. Unless Trump throws a massive tantrum and starts to actually sanction Netanyahu/Israel (Ironically, he might also be the only president capable of this, as I don't think the US has otherwise had a president unstable enough to about turn on an close ally that quickly). Bibi can basically ignore Trump's ravings, and let the lobbying work it's magic. In that sense, the US is always Israel's lapdog, every day. This leaves the world up shit's creek. Both Israel and Iran are being rational actors that basically aren't serious about a ceasefire, and both seem hellbent on ending each other as a functioning state. I thought there was a world where Iran just accepted US withdrawal (with it's nice $300 billion withdrawal bonus), and accepted it was going to keep fighting Israel (because what is the alternative?). But if this is not really on the table then there is no current path to the opening of the strait.
I do think you are under estimating Iran's influence on Hezbollah. There are many fairly high up Iranian dying in Lebanon. They also supply all the weapons, intel, and who knows what else. That being said, I don't know that Iran can just tell the to stop. My presumption based on the timing of the strikes is that Iran is still pulling the strings, but that could be good luck, or the Iranians just using it well. Not like they are up against any sort of serious or skilled negotiators.
I'm with you that this doesn't stop, I don't see Israel just backing out without accomplishing anything only to be dealing with rockets and other attacks in the near future. Iran has gotten everything they wanted so far, so why would they stop? The only way I see it stopping is if the US gives them enough that they are OK with Hezbollah no longer being supported, and eventually defeated. That seems unlikely as well.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
