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United States44245 Posts
On June 14 2026 23:13 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2026 11:18 KwarK wrote:
The White House announced a deal would be signed on Sunday in Geneva by Vance. They seem to have a very high threshold for embarrassment. Based on the details of the alleged deal that outlets are reporting on, it's nothing short of a complete surrender to Iran. The US position must be unbelievably bad if Iran won't sign it because they think they can get an even better deal.
I think there are a few elements to it.
The US Navy has failed to reopen the strait. They are running nighttime escort missions as Trump bragged about and in the last month they've got about a day worth of tankers out of the strait. I doubt any of those tankers will be returning, they're just getting out from being stranded. I suspect that they concluded 3 months ago that they simply can't run escort missions on the scale that would be required because they said that they would be doing escorts on day 3 of the war and then nothing ever materialized. They'd need considerably more frigates than they have, more anti drone capability than they have, and a tolerance for losses that they lack.
The oil situation is bad. The multinational strategic oil release strategy was agreed on March 19 with covering a short term disruption in mind. The rest of the world committed 212 million barrels from their reserves to help the US. That's done (and incidentally it looks like the US didn't take much of a role in it for the first month if you check the data below). Another has not been announced. You can see the US petroleum reserve levels here.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve
The US started the war at about half full and has been releasing over a million barrels a day. This is oil reserved for strategic military use in the event of a global war that involved the adversary disabling US oil supplies (it dates from before the US became a net oil exporter). Trump is flooding it onto the market in a successful effort to suppress price increases in the US.
The interceptor situation appears to be considerably worse. The stockpile of high end interceptors appears to be basically gone with the US hoarding new production. In the first month of the war the Gulf states were using high end interceptors on everything with reports of 90% depletion levels by the start of April. Everyone was promising a short war so it didn't make sense to ration them and allow small hits against critical infrastructure in that context. The problem is now they can't prevent large hits on critical infrastructure and the US is offering resupply timelines in the 2030s. That's the context in which the UAE is reportedly paying Iran $10,000,000,000 to shoot at someone else. Not to stop firing, just to hit someone else's irreplaceable infrastructure because the replacement cost would be higher than the ransom.
And the missile situation appears to be equally bad too. The US strategy again seems to have been convinced this would be a very short war. They bombed the access tunnels to the subterranean missile depots and concluded that would buy them enough time. The stockpiles were never destroyed, only buried. Leaked intelligence reports are saying that Iran has unburied them during the ceasefire. US allies have reached the correct conclusion that the US is simply unable to keep its commitments to them. They cannot keep the strait open, they cannot protect infrastructure, they cannot deter Iran.
Even worse still is the US theory of victory which was predicated on internal collapse. There is no indication of any kind of positive progress in that area.
That gives us a situation in which the US has not only given up on imposing a settlement upon Iran, it also can't hold its ground. It can't keep releasing oil forever. It can't produce enough interceptors. It can't stop the missiles and drones. It has lost, and lost decisively.
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On June 15 2026 01:28 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2026 23:13 LightSpectra wrote:On June 14 2026 11:18 KwarK wrote:
The White House announced a deal would be signed on Sunday in Geneva by Vance. They seem to have a very high threshold for embarrassment. Based on the details of the alleged deal that outlets are reporting on, it's nothing short of a complete surrender to Iran. The US position must be unbelievably bad if Iran won't sign it because they think they can get an even better deal. I think there are a few elements to it. The US Navy has failed to reopen the strait. They are running nighttime escort missions as Trump bragged about and in the last month they've got about a day worth of tankers out of the strait. I doubt any of those tankers will be returning, they're just getting out from being stranded. I suspect that they concluded 3 months ago that they simply can't run escort missions on the scale that would be required because they said that they would be doing escorts on day 3 of the war and then nothing ever materialized. They'd need considerably more frigates than they have, more anti drone capability than they have, and a tolerance for losses that they lack. The oil situation is bad. The multinational strategic oil release strategy was agreed on March 19 with covering a short term disruption in mind. The rest of the world committed 212 million barrels from their reserves to help the US. That's done (and incidentally it looks like the US didn't take much of a role in it for the first month if you check the data below). Another has not been announced. You can see the US petroleum reserve levels here. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserveThe US started the war at about half full and has been releasing over a million barrels a day. This is oil reserved for strategic military use in the event of a global war that involved the adversary disabling US oil supplies (it dates from before the US became a net oil exporter). Trump is flooding it onto the market in a successful effort to suppress price increases in the US. The interceptor situation appears to be considerably worse. The stockpile of high end interceptors appears to be basically gone with the US hoarding new production. In the first month of the war the Gulf states were using high end interceptors on everything with reports of 90% depletion levels by the start of April. Everyone was promising a short war so it didn't make sense to ration them and allow small hits against critical infrastructure in that context. The problem is now they can't prevent large hits on critical infrastructure and the US is offering resupply timelines in the 2030s. That's the context in which the UAE is reportedly paying Iran $10,000,000,000 to shoot at someone else. Not to stop firing, just to hit someone else's irreplaceable infrastructure because the replacement cost would be higher than the ransom. And the missile situation appears to be equally bad too. The US strategy again seems to have been convinced this would be a very short war. They bombed the access tunnels to the subterranean missile depots and concluded that would buy them enough time. The stockpiles were never destroyed, only buried. Leaked intelligence reports are saying that Iran has unburied them during the ceasefire. US allies have reached the correct conclusion that the US is simply unable to keep its commitments to them. They cannot keep the strait open, they cannot protect infrastructure, they cannot deter Iran. Even worse still is the US theory of victory which was predicated on internal collapse. There is no indication of any kind of positive progress in that area.That gives us a situation in which the US has not only given up on imposing a settlement upon Iran, it also can't hold its ground. It can't keep releasing oil forever. It can't produce enough interceptors. It can't stop the missiles and drones. It has lost, and lost decisively.
The problem with internal collapse was that it was crushed weeks before this war started. So internal actors that wanted the government to fail was at its weakest in many years just as the US choose to kick it off.
I also agree that the US lost decisively when the government didn't collapse. It cannot achieve its goal without invading. Which is much more expensive than losing a war. Just see the current Russian situation, they lost the war in the first year but are still burning money and people. Cutting losses might not be fun but is the best thing in some cases. (Ukraine might still lose the war but it would be Pyrrhic victory, at best, for Russia.)
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Now that the US has lost, and couldn’t even get the signing of the loss on Donald’s birthday like he desperately wanted, because his priorities are clearly US interests…
Here is the count.
Trump said he defeated Iran 55 times.
He stated that Iran was destroyed 35 times.
He stated the deal was imminent 38 times.
And he stated the straight of Hormuz was open 25 times.
People who trust Trump are idiots.
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United States44245 Posts
Israel attacked Beirut which Iran appears to be using as a pretext to delay things further. It's almost like Israel isn't aligned with the American desire to end the conflict by giving Iran whatever it wants. Perhaps the coalition should meet and discuss what their war aims will be.
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If it wasn't for the multiple wars israel is engaged in.. Bibi would be in jail, or at least no longer PM.
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On June 15 2026 05:03 KT_Elwood wrote:
If it wasn't for the multiple wars israel is engaged in.. Bibi would be in jail, or at least no longer PM.
Why do you think they are in multiple wars 
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On June 15 2026 05:36 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2026 05:03 KT_Elwood wrote:
If it wasn't for the multiple wars israel is engaged in.. Bibi would be in jail, or at least no longer PM.
Why do you think they are in multiple wars
Coincidences like that are surely surprising.
Got any internal problems as a ruler? Start a war, and suddenly everyone has to stick to you against the common enemy.
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On June 15 2026 05:03 KT_Elwood wrote:
If it wasn't for the multiple wars israel is engaged in.. Bibi would be in jail, or at least no longer PM.
He'd probably be in the Hague and/or Israel would be heavily sanctioned if not for the US aiding and abetting/protecting him/them.
The "rules-based international order" was never really much more than a thin veneer on US dominated "might makes right" but the veneer has been worn away.
What that means for humanity is still up in the air, but my 8-ball keeps coming up "outlook not so good"
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doubleupgradeobbies!
Australia1353 Posts
Well, now that we might actually see an end to immediate hostilities (if it can be believed).
On April 02 2026 10:38 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:
Oh I expect the Israelis to bomb Kharg Island almost immediately if the US doesn't do anything to it before they leave.
This might be back on the table, given that the US (wisely probably) didn't try to land people on Kharg Island.
At least if Iran stops exporting oil for a while, that's only like... 4.5% of global oil supplies. A significant improvement actually over the current situation. Of course if Iran doesn't open the Strait or attacks the oil production infrastructure of neighbouring countries... The world might be in a spot of trouble given the state of strategic oil reserves.
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The fact that this shitshow is entirely self inflicted by macho boï Hegseth and Dottard the First is the most infuriating.
Dude inherits a historic deal, blows it up to pieces out of spite and sets the world ablaze through sheer stupidity and incompetence.
And there are still twats to say they don’t regret voting for him and claim they would do it again.
Gotta agree with GH the prospects don’t look good. We are probably too stupid to make it.
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On June 15 2026 16:34 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The fact that this shitshow is entirely self inflicted by macho boï Hegseth and Dottard the First is the most infuriating.
Dude inherits a historic deal, blows it up to pieces out of spite and sets the world ablaze through sheer stupidity and incompetence.
And there are still twats to say they don’t regret voting for him and claim they would do it again.
Gotta agree with GH the prospects don’t look good. We are probably too stupid to make it.
What was your plan for when the historic deal expired?
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On June 15 2026 17:37 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2026 16:34 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The fact that this shitshow is entirely self inflicted by macho boï Hegseth and Dottard the First is the most infuriating.
Dude inherits a historic deal, blows it up to pieces out of spite and sets the world ablaze through sheer stupidity and incompetence.
And there are still twats to say they don’t regret voting for him and claim they would do it again.
Gotta agree with GH the prospects don’t look good. We are probably too stupid to make it. What was your plan for when the historic deal expired?
See if the deal can be extended, see if the conditions still make sense, see if it makes sense to renegotiate small parts based on new information, etc. Same as other deals with foreign countries.
Not start a war and lose that war.
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On June 15 2026 17:37 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2026 16:34 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The fact that this shitshow is entirely self inflicted by macho boï Hegseth and Dottard the First is the most infuriating.
Dude inherits a historic deal, blows it up to pieces out of spite and sets the world ablaze through sheer stupidity and incompetence.
And there are still twats to say they don’t regret voting for him and claim they would do it again.
Gotta agree with GH the prospects don’t look good. We are probably too stupid to make it. What was your plan for when the historic deal expired? Iran doesn't want a war with the US, simply asking them to extend the deal to keep relations positive would probably have been enough.
And if you want to point the current situation and Iran's refusal of a deal as a counter argument. That is after the US started an unprovoked war and repeatedly backstabbed them. US-Iran relations are very different if Trump never torpedo's the Obama deal in his first term out of pure spite and bombed their commander under the pretext of a negotiation.
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Let's imagine the nightmare world of Hillary winning instead of Trump.
It's 2020 and she just got re-elected in an overwhelming victory because Trump couldn't let 2016 go and had just enough grips over the Republican party for them to stay in a mutually destructive death spiral.
She coasted on Obama's recovering economy, kept the pandemic responses teams in place and handled the pandemic quite well, considering the circumstances, USA is the most vaccinated country and they got it first, she extended a helping hand to North Korea and Iran and shipped them vaccines as well. Since Netanyahu was ousted in 2018 and then indicted, the more moderate Israel scaled back the West Bank settlements and made concessions in Gaza, resulting in a normalization of relations between most of the Arab world and them.
The Iranian 2020 elections are basically an inverse of what they were in this fucked timeline where JCPOE remained in place and orange war criminal didn't blow up their most popular general on tarmac in Iraq, so reformists, instead of theocrats win 76 % of the vote, and in a historic move their first order of business is to sign the accords of normalization of relations with Israel and ask for Hesbolah and Hamas to come to the table.
That's just a fantasy world of mine that some time I like to think about, unfortunately, due to the inherent racism and brainwashed hatred people like oBlade have for immigrants, we get to live in the world of perpetual war and destruction.
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On June 15 2026 18:29 Jankisa wrote:
Let's imagine the nightmare world of Hillary winning instead of Trump.
It's 2020 and she just got re-elected in an overwhelming victory because Trump couldn't let 2016 go and had just enough grips over the Republican party for them to stay in a mutually destructive death spiral.
She coasted on Obama's recovering economy, kept the pandemic responses teams in place and handled the pandemic quite well, considering the circumstances, USA is the most vaccinated country and they got it first, she extended a helping hand to North Korea and Iran and shipped them vaccines as well. Since Netanyahu was ousted in 2018 and then indicted, the more moderate Israel scaled back the West Bank settlements and made concessions in Gaza, resulting in a normalization of relations between most of the Arab world and them.
The Iranian 2020 elections are basically an inverse of what they were in this fucked timeline where JCPOE remained in place and orange war criminal didn't blow up their most popular general on tarmac in Iraq, so reformists, instead of theocrats win 76 % of the vote, and in a historic move their first order of business is to sign the accords of normalization of relations with Israel and ask for Hesbolah and Hamas to come to the table.
That's just a fantasy world of mine that some time I like to think about, unfortunately, due to the inherent racism and brainwashed hatred people like oBlade have for immigrants, we get to live in the world of perpetual war and destruction.
Don't forget she could have given vaccines to Russia which would have resulted in Kasparov getting elected and stopped Putin from ever invading Ukraine.
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On June 15 2026 08:43 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:Well, now that we might actually see an end to immediate hostilities (if it can be believed). Show nested quote +On April 02 2026 10:38 doubleupgradeobbies! wrote:
Oh I expect the Israelis to bomb Kharg Island almost immediately if the US doesn't do anything to it before they leave. This might be back on the table, given that the US (wisely probably) didn't try to land people on Kharg Island. At least if Iran stops exporting oil for a while, that's only like... 4.5% of global oil supplies. A significant improvement actually over the current situation. Of course if Iran doesn't open the Strait or attacks the oil production infrastructure of neighbouring countries... The world might be in a spot of trouble given the state of strategic oil reserves.
The oil production chart is nuts since 2024.
Didn‘t even imagine the US had that much to extract.
At some point some efficient resource management will have to be enacted. Not to just blast as much as possible away in the shortest amount of time possible. But that‘s against the economic ideology where you can just blast anything away as long as you bought it. Even the military has got to see that.
If it isn‘t an indicator that they‘re stocking up for Iran.
Rocket bus trips is insanity. They can fight that topic out between themselves though.
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On June 15 2026 19:53 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2026 18:29 Jankisa wrote:
Let's imagine the nightmare world of Hillary winning instead of Trump.
It's 2020 and she just got re-elected in an overwhelming victory because Trump couldn't let 2016 go and had just enough grips over the Republican party for them to stay in a mutually destructive death spiral.
She coasted on Obama's recovering economy, kept the pandemic responses teams in place and handled the pandemic quite well, considering the circumstances, USA is the most vaccinated country and they got it first, she extended a helping hand to North Korea and Iran and shipped them vaccines as well. Since Netanyahu was ousted in 2018 and then indicted, the more moderate Israel scaled back the West Bank settlements and made concessions in Gaza, resulting in a normalization of relations between most of the Arab world and them.
The Iranian 2020 elections are basically an inverse of what they were in this fucked timeline where JCPOE remained in place and orange war criminal didn't blow up their most popular general on tarmac in Iraq, so reformists, instead of theocrats win 76 % of the vote, and in a historic move their first order of business is to sign the accords of normalization of relations with Israel and ask for Hesbolah and Hamas to come to the table.
That's just a fantasy world of mine that some time I like to think about, unfortunately, due to the inherent racism and brainwashed hatred people like oBlade have for immigrants, we get to live in the world of perpetual war and destruction. Don't forget she could have given vaccines to Russia which would have resulted in Kasparov getting elected and stopped Putin from ever invading Ukraine.
As always, snarky one sentence replies when confronted by the absolute harm you and your fascist bootlicking compatriots did to the world.
Who negotiated this deal, since "Iran doesn't exist" oBlade?
What leverage does Iran have since "they can't close the strait because their capacities to do so were all destroyed" oBlade?
You were wrong every step of the way, all in writing and yet you are still here trying to be snarky like you didn't absolutely face plant with every prediction and assessment you made on this war.
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On June 15 2026 17:37 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2026 16:34 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The fact that this shitshow is entirely self inflicted by macho boï Hegseth and Dottard the First is the most infuriating.
Dude inherits a historic deal, blows it up to pieces out of spite and sets the world ablaze through sheer stupidity and incompetence.
And there are still twats to say they don’t regret voting for him and claim they would do it again.
Gotta agree with GH the prospects don’t look good. We are probably too stupid to make it. What was your plan for when the historic deal expired?
I don’t know, like, anything except having a drunk idiot trying to play badass like a 5 years schoolboy starting a war with no strategy, no objectives, no understanding of anything, and tanking the world economy at the costs of dozens of billions under the assumption that « trust me the regime will collapse, bro » while any one with two brain cells could tell you that it certainly won’t.
When the deal expires, you go back to the negotiation table, if you have people who are not too fucking stupid to understand what a negotiation even is.
Yeah politics is hard, that’s why you don’t put fucking retards in the White House. You probably didn’t think about that though when you voted three times for those dingleberries.
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On June 15 2026 20:07 Jankisa wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2026 19:53 oBlade wrote:On June 15 2026 18:29 Jankisa wrote:
Let's imagine the nightmare world of Hillary winning instead of Trump.
It's 2020 and she just got re-elected in an overwhelming victory because Trump couldn't let 2016 go and had just enough grips over the Republican party for them to stay in a mutually destructive death spiral.
She coasted on Obama's recovering economy, kept the pandemic responses teams in place and handled the pandemic quite well, considering the circumstances, USA is the most vaccinated country and they got it first, she extended a helping hand to North Korea and Iran and shipped them vaccines as well. Since Netanyahu was ousted in 2018 and then indicted, the more moderate Israel scaled back the West Bank settlements and made concessions in Gaza, resulting in a normalization of relations between most of the Arab world and them.
The Iranian 2020 elections are basically an inverse of what they were in this fucked timeline where JCPOE remained in place and orange war criminal didn't blow up their most popular general on tarmac in Iraq, so reformists, instead of theocrats win 76 % of the vote, and in a historic move their first order of business is to sign the accords of normalization of relations with Israel and ask for Hesbolah and Hamas to come to the table.
That's just a fantasy world of mine that some time I like to think about, unfortunately, due to the inherent racism and brainwashed hatred people like oBlade have for immigrants, we get to live in the world of perpetual war and destruction. Don't forget she could have given vaccines to Russia which would have resulted in Kasparov getting elected and stopped Putin from ever invading Ukraine. As always, snarky one sentence replies when confronted by the absolute harm you and your fascist bootlicking compatriots did to the world. Who negotiated this deal, since "Iran doesn't exist" oBlade? What leverage does Iran have since "they can't close the strait because their capacities to do so were all destroyed" oBlade? You were wrong every step of the way, all in writing and yet you are still here trying to be snarky like you didn't absolutely face plant with every prediction and assessment you made on this war.
When I post actual information you call it a screed and fail to read it. It's more efficient to just illustrate why vaccines can't create democracy in an authoritarian state by using an example you can't even imagine rebutting.
Hopefully they have restored enough central command structure that the people negotiating a deal represent the people under them, and hopefully they are able to enforce a deal by holding the people under them to it. Otherwise negotiating would be against their interests since they have all this leverage as you point out.
On June 15 2026 20:49 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2026 17:37 oBlade wrote:On June 15 2026 16:34 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The fact that this shitshow is entirely self inflicted by macho boï Hegseth and Dottard the First is the most infuriating.
Dude inherits a historic deal, blows it up to pieces out of spite and sets the world ablaze through sheer stupidity and incompetence.
And there are still twats to say they don’t regret voting for him and claim they would do it again.
Gotta agree with GH the prospects don’t look good. We are probably too stupid to make it. What was your plan for when the historic deal expired? I don’t know, like, anything except having a drunk idiot trying to play badass like a 5 years schoolboy starting a war with no strategy, no objectives, no understanding of anything, and tanking the world economy at the costs of dozens of billions under the assumption that « trust me the regime will collapse, bro » while any one with two brain cells could tell you that it certainly won’t. When the deal expires, you go back to the negotiation table, if you have people who are not too fucking stupid to understand what a negotiation even is. Yeah politics is hard, that’s why you don’t put fucking retards in the White House. You probably didn’t think about that though when you voted three times for those dingleberries.
At the end of Dog Day Afternoon when they shoot John Cazale's character, do you get mad at the FBI? They shot Al Pacino's favorite sidekick under the pretext of a negotiation? Do you say it was unprovoked, that Al Pacino was negotiating in good faith, that they had even given up several hostages already?
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On June 15 2026 17:37 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2026 16:34 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The fact that this shitshow is entirely self inflicted by macho boï Hegseth and Dottard the First is the most infuriating.
Dude inherits a historic deal, blows it up to pieces out of spite and sets the world ablaze through sheer stupidity and incompetence.
And there are still twats to say they don’t regret voting for him and claim they would do it again.
Gotta agree with GH the prospects don’t look good. We are probably too stupid to make it. What was your plan for when the historic deal expired?
What was trumps plan for this? fucking twat
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EPT
