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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 880

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-30 14:21:24
May 30 2017 14:19 GMT
#17581
On May 30 2017 22:39 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
To continue your line of reasoning xM)Z what would be the interests to which a German army would defend? Why it would be Germany itself, and her political, economic and military alliances that also protects Germany. In recent times it is actually fairly obvious what that is, as there is a fairly large and nearby country that has no qualms about using unconventional warfare to achieve their own aims, including using special forces, cyberwarfare and covert invasion to destabilize countries that are percieved to bacting against her interests. No I'm not talking about UK or France. The real question is in what shape would such military spending entail? Afterall the German military seems to be focused on humanitarian capacity than actual military capacity. For instance, their new warships being built are actually giant rescue and supply ships with a veneer of military capability.
you'd need hindsight 20/20 and be in the future to reliably answer that question.

i'm guessing that initially, Germany wanted EU to be mainly an economical power house that would literally dictate how markets are run(trading rates; think of the European Fertile Plains+ Show Spoiler +
European Plain, one of the greatest uninterrupted expanses of plain on the Earth’s surface. It sweeps from the Pyrenees Mountains on the French-Spanish border across northern Europe to the Ural Mountains in Russia. In western Europe the plain is comparatively narrow, rarely exceeding 200 miles (320 kilometres) in width, but as it stretches eastward it broadens steadily until it reaches its greatest width in western Russia, where it extends more than 2,000 miles.
(they could dictate the market price of wheat for ex), or at the PetroEuro) and prop up financial not military bullying. but, since the shaft with the uncrossed Red Line, they've realized they can do nothing without an army(imo, Ex: if EU had an army at that time, it would've invaded Syria).

the UN resolutions constantly vetoed by the russians became something unacceptable; EU was fuming while US and Russia were the only ones negotiating the Middle East crisis. add to that the fact that some EU members are not NATO members (ex:Finland), so if Russia moves into Finland(lalaland scenarios but still, they were considered) EU could do nothing about it, then the idea that Brexit itself was(in part) a last ditch effort to stop EU from getting an army(again, mainly Germany; UK was against a unified Germany from the start and there's a famous quote on it "We beat the Germans twice, and now they're back" Margaret Thatcher/1989 European Meeting, so they'd veto such a proposal) by the other global powers(there are mechanics/agreements in place that prevent (new)countries from becoming world powers) and the stage is set.

(i'd add Israel there but i think that's to much as is)
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-30 14:21:07
May 30 2017 14:20 GMT
#17582
.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
Broetchenholer
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany1944 Posts
May 30 2017 15:36 GMT
#17583
Alright, after trying to understand your sentence there, i had to copy it to word and delete the "explanation" you provided in paranthesis and this is what you wrote:

"Then the idea that Brexit itself was(in part) a last ditch effort to stop EU from getting an army by the other global powers and the stage is set."

The rest of your post is from my point of view little more then what i would produce after 2 days of no sleep, ranting about gamebalance after having lost a game. I usually try to argue even with stuff i don't agree with but i have no idea how to work with what you have given us here.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-30 16:09:40
May 30 2017 16:04 GMT
#17584
On May 30 2017 20:39 TheDwf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2017 20:15 opisska wrote:
Germany, the biggest net contributor to the EU budget (average 9 bil. euro per year over 2007-2013) is abusing the economical rules to ... be able to give the others more money?

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Where capital goes] +
[image loading]


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11584031/Germanys-record-trade-surplus-is-a-bigger-threat-to-euro-than-Greece.html


This has been posted often in this thread but it is at least kind of misleading. Germany's intra-EU trade balance is not that enormous.
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


The bulk of German export growth isn't located in the EU, we've simply profited more from the fact that we have a pretty solid position on the international markets, and it's dubious whether prices even play the dominant role here.
Yurie
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
11875 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-30 16:34:24
May 30 2017 16:27 GMT
#17585
On May 31 2017 01:04 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2017 20:39 TheDwf wrote:
On May 30 2017 20:15 opisska wrote:
Germany, the biggest net contributor to the EU budget (average 9 bil. euro per year over 2007-2013) is abusing the economical rules to ... be able to give the others more money?

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Where capital goes] +
[image loading]


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11584031/Germanys-record-trade-surplus-is-a-bigger-threat-to-euro-than-Greece.html


This has been posted often in this thread but it is at least kind of misleading. Germany's intra-EU trade balance is not that enormous.
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


The bulk of German export growth isn't located in the EU, we've simply profited more from the fact that we have a pretty solid position on the international markets, and it's dubious whether prices even play the dominant role here.


Something to not forget when seeing the positive trade balances large parts of EU enjoy is The Good Country Index. Rating how others perceive a country and by extension their companies (the actual rating is meaningless since most don't know about it, what it shows is relevant though). Doing well there makes it easier to compete, something we can afford after building up the previous centuries instead of now.

Take the recent Russian situation. It imposed sanctions on many of their companies, tightened borders and generally made people distrust things connected to the country. Same with NK where we don't trust them at all and thus exclude them from the world market. China is also spooking a lot of people and thus somewhat decreasing their companies competitiveness abroad. It is an interesting factor that Europe should keep going for.

Building a reputation takes decades and it is easy to damage it as can be seen with Trump right now. Germany enjoys a reputation for excellence in manufacturing and quality. Allowing their companies to sell at a higher price than the same product produced in India would allow.

Sorry for going off on a tangent here but it is an important thing to consider when talking about interfering abroad. Especially for tourism and recruitment abroad it matters.
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
May 30 2017 16:50 GMT
#17586
On May 31 2017 01:27 Yurie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 31 2017 01:04 Nyxisto wrote:
On May 30 2017 20:39 TheDwf wrote:
On May 30 2017 20:15 opisska wrote:
Germany, the biggest net contributor to the EU budget (average 9 bil. euro per year over 2007-2013) is abusing the economical rules to ... be able to give the others more money?

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Where capital goes] +
[image loading]


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11584031/Germanys-record-trade-surplus-is-a-bigger-threat-to-euro-than-Greece.html


This has been posted often in this thread but it is at least kind of misleading. Germany's intra-EU trade balance is not that enormous.
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


The bulk of German export growth isn't located in the EU, we've simply profited more from the fact that we have a pretty solid position on the international markets, and it's dubious whether prices even play the dominant role here.


Something to not forget when seeing the positive trade balances large parts of EU enjoy is The Good Country Index. Rating how others perceive a country and by extension their companies (the actual rating is meaningless since most don't know about it, what it shows is relevant though). Doing well there makes it easier to compete, something we can afford after building up the previous centuries instead of now.

Take the recent Russian situation. It imposed sanctions on many of their companies, tightened borders and generally made people distrust things connected to the country. Same with NK where we don't trust them at all and thus exclude them from the world market. China is also spooking a lot of people and thus somewhat decreasing their companies competitiveness abroad. It is an interesting factor that Europe should keep going for.

Building a reputation takes decades and it is easy to damage it as can be seen with Trump right now. Germany enjoys a reputation for excellence in manufacturing and quality. Allowing their companies to sell at a higher price than the same product produced in India would allow.

Sorry for going off on a tangent here but it is an important thing to consider when talking about interfering abroad. Especially for tourism and recruitment abroad it matters.


There is a wonderful graph for that:

[image loading]

This also explains why "Made in EU" is so commonly used by EU-countries except Germany, which is something irritating me at first when travelling across Europe.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
May 30 2017 16:57 GMT
#17587
I'm quite suprised by how high the UK is and how low Japan and Finland and Norway is.
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2394 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-30 17:05:27
May 30 2017 17:04 GMT
#17588
This was a survey of consumers, and Finland's strengths today - after the decline of Nokia phones - are in a lot of industries that aren't consumer facing I guess. edit: Just to clarify I say this with the utmost respect for Finland's astonishing engineering prowess.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
May 30 2017 17:08 GMT
#17589
On May 31 2017 01:57 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
I'm quite suprised by how high the UK is and how low Japan and Finland and Norway is.

In order to get the first place, Theresa May should add "strong and stable" to every made in UK product.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
May 30 2017 19:32 GMT
#17590
the last debate performance wasn't strong and stable at all, interesting to see how much labour can catch up. The tory platform seems just bad.
Incognoto
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
France10239 Posts
May 31 2017 02:56 GMT
#17591
On May 30 2017 20:39 TheDwf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2017 20:15 opisska wrote:
Germany, the biggest net contributor to the EU budget (average 9 bil. euro per year over 2007-2013) is abusing the economical rules to ... be able to give the others more money?

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Where capital goes] +
[image loading]


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11584031/Germanys-record-trade-surplus-is-a-bigger-threat-to-euro-than-Greece.html


Germany literally too efficient for the rest of its incapable neighbors.
maru lover forever
dp
Profile Joined August 2003
United States234 Posts
May 31 2017 06:19 GMT
#17592
On May 30 2017 22:58 Broetchenholer wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2017 22:26 xM(Z wrote:
On May 30 2017 19:32 Simberto wrote:
If 37% want a stronger army (source please) that also means that 63% don't want one. Which is an amazingly large majority.

And von der Leyen did not say that she wants a larger army. She says that she wants a european army. That does not necessarily mean "more". It just means "organizing things on the european level as opposed to on a national level"
i remembered http://www.dw.com/en/germans-voice-us-frustrations-in-policy-poll/a-17763383 from a while ago [image loading]
with Trump winning, it could've gotten higher; i'm betting it's a little over 40% by now. add to that the serious drop in % of germans(from 34% to 9%) that see themselves not as losing the war(second one) but as being liberated by the allies from the nazis, you realize things are starting to move in a certain direction.

rest of your post looks semantic-ish. you can make that argument sure, but i like calling it like it is: the goal of an army is to defend <interests>. in which scenario would said EU army defend the interests of say, Hungary?. lets be real here. it would be Germany(in Europe/Middle East/Caucasus region) and sometimes France(in Africa).


Uh, am i stupid or are you completely miquoting that poll? In 2014, 37% of Germans voiced that Germany should get more involved. First, that is something entirely different from saying the country should get a bigger army. Second, that went down from 62%. Third if you read the entire article you linked, they specifically claim that they want to keep peace in the world and oppose fighting wars for economical gain.

Taking that article and using it as proof for increased german desires for greatness is either lazy or dishonest.


I'd have to agree that I don't see a real indication at least in regards to public opinion that Germany is looking to increase it's military might overall. Honestly, it looks like the opposite, and seems to be a big reason why there is such a push back to the 2% NATO spending guideline. A PEW poll I looked out had some very confusing views by Germans in regards to NATO, at least in the way I view them.

67% of Germans polled had favorable views of NATO. So generally liked. Then I find it weird.. Only 40% believe Germany should use military force to defend an ally that is attacked by Russia. On top of that, 65% believe the US would use military force to defend an ally against Russia.

Makes it pretty clear why they don't feel a need to increase military spending to meet the guideline. Spend as little as possible, roll the dice and worst case let the Americans deal with it. Easy peasy.
:o
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-31 08:51:49
May 31 2017 08:34 GMT
#17593
On May 30 2017 22:58 Broetchenholer wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2017 22:26 xM(Z wrote:
On May 30 2017 19:32 Simberto wrote:
If 37% want a stronger army (source please) that also means that 63% don't want one. Which is an amazingly large majority.

And von der Leyen did not say that she wants a larger army. She says that she wants a european army. That does not necessarily mean "more". It just means "organizing things on the european level as opposed to on a national level"
i remembered http://www.dw.com/en/germans-voice-us-frustrations-in-policy-poll/a-17763383 from a while ago [image loading]
with Trump winning, it could've gotten higher; i'm betting it's a little over 40% by now. add to that the serious drop in % of germans(from 34% to 9%) that see themselves not as losing the war(second one) but as being liberated by the allies from the nazis, you realize things are starting to move in a certain direction.

rest of your post looks semantic-ish. you can make that argument sure, but i like calling it like it is: the goal of an army is to defend <interests>. in which scenario would said EU army defend the interests of say, Hungary?. lets be real here. it would be Germany(in Europe/Middle East/Caucasus region) and sometimes France(in Africa).


Uh, am i stupid or are you completely miquoting that poll? In 2014, 37% of Germans voiced that Germany should get more involved. First, that is something entirely different from saying the country should get a bigger army. Second, that went down from 62%. Third if you read the entire article you linked, they specifically claim that they want to keep peace in the world and oppose fighting wars for economical gain.

Taking that article and using it as proof for increased german desires for greatness is either lazy or dishonest.
lazy probably but i mean, even if not explicitly stated, how are you suppose to get more involved?: take that one dude that's in your army and spread it from Mali to the Baltics?.
to back up the increase in laziness:
Berlin is still more reluctant than Paris to deploy robust military force, partly because of cautious public opinion. A series of Koerber Stiftung opinion polls from January 2015 to October 2016 shows an increase in the willingness of Germans to take a more active role in international crisis management (from 34% to 41%), but a majority still prefer restraint.
and less lazy, talking about 54% germans supportive of an EU army
It is not entirely clear who would command such an army — national governments or the Brussels-based EU institutions — nor what it would do in practice. But the idea has a lot of appeal in Germany for a host of historical and political reasons (54% of Germans support the idea according to a Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung poll taken in September). An EU army would be the ultimate expression of European political unity: in other words, EU defence is primarily an integration project for some in Berlin.

@Artisreal: was in jewish media http://www.timesofisrael.com/german-poll-indicates-dramatic-change-in-perception-of-wwii/ that sends you to https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germans-begin-to-recast-themselves-as-victims-of-the-nazis-96lwtxz9mqf that wants login i think but you can still read some things.

Edit: and yea, on how is this army business going on for a while now -
Huge portions of the Dutch military are being merged with the German Army, a process that many want to see rolled out across the whole Continent. Two of the Netherland’s three combat brigades have officially begun the process of joining the Bundeswehr.

The 11th Airmobile Brigade came under German command in 2014. Then on March 17, the 43rd Mechanized Brigade officially became part of the German 1st Armored Division. The Dutch Army now has only the 13th Mechanized Brigade, plus special forces, support and headquarters staff under its own command.

This is a revolutionary change, not just for the Netherlands, but for Europe and, in time, the world. It is paving the way for a newly capable German-led military force.

There have been so many token efforts at forming multinational forces that it is easy to gloss over what has just happened. But the Dutch aren’t just doing training maneuvers with Germany. Lt. Gen. Mart de Kruif, commander of the Royal Netherlands Army, called the collaboration “unique in the world, both in the way and the level in which we integrate.”
...
“In all previous collaborations was agreed that troops operations continue to be subject to checks by the national institutions and procedures,” wrote Sachsische Zeitung. “The Sea Battalion of the German Navy could thus be involved, for example, only after approval of the Bundestag on a foreign deployment of the Dutch Navy” (Trumpet translation throughout).

Germany sees this unprecedented cooperation as only the start. It has begun preparations for similar arrangements with Poland. The Czech Republic has asked Germany several times for a similar arrangement to what the Dutch now have—it also wants one of its armored brigades absorbed into the German Army.

German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen said she wants to build a European army this way. In February she announced, “We will set up a multinational panzer division next year.”

“This should create a unit with up to 20,000 active soldiers, which should be operational by 2021—which would be the nucleus of a European army,” wrote Die Welt.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
May 31 2017 10:06 GMT
#17594
Well.
Most now regard Allied victory as liberation from the Nazis, and only 9% as a defeat for Germany

That is the opposite of what you said and the opposite of what is portrayed in the headline of the article.
The third paragraph of the article reads as follows:
A recent survey conducted by the Forsa Institute, a German polling and market research firm, found that the majority perceived the Allies’ victory as a liberation for Germany from the Nazi regime, with only 9 percent of Germans viewing World War II as a defeat — dramatically down from 34% in 2005.

So the majority sees it as liberation. There is zero connection between the study's results and the headline of the article.

I did not interpret your post as supporting the above but rather the opposite. But I've misread you once already...
passive quaranstream fan
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
May 31 2017 10:12 GMT
#17595
This is nothing new, is it? In Germany, people are generally offended if you talk about what "Germans did" during the WWII - it was not them, it was "the Nazis" and the poor common Germans had nothing to do with that. Which is quite hypocritical, but on the other hand, what purpose would it serve to blame the whole nation, which is now made out of completely different people, barring some very old folks?

In general, I don't get the fear of Germans. Yeah, they had Nazism and caused a huge wave of horror, but honestly, which nation can say that they are immune to that? I just don't see why it should be more probable to happen again in Germany just because it happened once. The circumstances were different, the country was pretty battered from the war before and the ensuing politics and economy, nowadays it's one of the greatest countries on the planet in virtually any metrics.
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
TheNewEra
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany3128 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-31 10:44:31
May 31 2017 10:38 GMT
#17596
On May 31 2017 19:12 opisska wrote:
This is nothing new, is it? In Germany, people are generally offended if you talk about what "Germans did" during the WWII - it was not them, it was "the Nazis" and the poor common Germans had nothing to do with that. Which is quite hypocritical, but on the other hand, what purpose would it serve to blame the whole nation, which is now made out of completely different people, barring some very old folks?

In general, I don't get the fear of Germans. Yeah, they had Nazism and caused a huge wave of horror, but honestly, which nation can say that they are immune to that? I just don't see why it should be more probable to happen again in Germany just because it happened once. The circumstances were different, the country was pretty battered from the war before and the ensuing politics and economy, nowadays it's one of the greatest countries on the planet in virtually any metrics.

To your first paragraph: Well yes, we say the Nazis did it, but we all know that "the Nazis" and "we Germans" (as in our grandfathers, great-grandfathers) are interchangeable. Personally I don't know anyone who is offended by the notion that the Germans did it ( well unless you are unlucky and speak to someone with ancestors in the resistance). Your first paragraph honestly reads a bit like a cliché just like "don't mention the war". If there is one thing we do in Germany it's not denying our history, as gruesome as it was in the first half of the last century.

Edit: Maybe this has something to do with the degree of education though. Most of the people I'm surrounded with are pretty educated and know alot about 1933-1945.
Midas <3 Casy <3 BeSt <3 | Pray to Doh-men, heathens! | Zwischen Harz und Heideland
Broetchenholer
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany1944 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-31 11:05:52
May 31 2017 11:01 GMT
#17597
Obviously i have to generalize here but i believe that Germans don't like talking about the subject because others don't treat it as seriously as we do. If a random American i would hypothetically meet on my hypothetical trip to the US greet me with, "Oh, you are from Germany, sieg heil. Haha, that's what you said right?", of course we will get defensive. It's very possible to not feel responsible for the Second World War while still feeling responsible to never forget it and prevent it from happening again and still not like to talk about it. I did nothing wrong, my grandfather told me he did nothing wrong either altough he fought some kilometers from Leningrad and spent years in a russian camp for military prisoners and definately killed russian soldiers there. We know what the generation did, we are not responsible for it, we just have the obligation to keep reminding everyone where nationalism leads to and we don't enjoy others identifying us with what "Germans did" because that's not the first sting people should identify us with when they learn we are german. Then again, i am privileged to live among mostly people that are compatible of my view of the world and this issue and there are more then 5 of us germans

Regarding xMZ, the article explicitly stated how the polled Germans wanted to get more involved. Through more diplomacy and humanitarian aid. I am not saying that there are no people that want to Make Germany great again, but the linked article does not underline the argument at all.

Edit: Grammar is hard, my grandfather did not kill russian soldiers while in a camp for military prisoners
Broetchenholer
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany1944 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-31 11:05:42
May 31 2017 11:04 GMT
#17598
Edit(Clicking Edit instead of Quote is also hard.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18831 Posts
May 31 2017 11:18 GMT
#17599
Cultural inheritance is a tricky game anyhow. For example, I'm about 40% German, all from my dad and through his blood line, I am descended from Nazi officers, civilians conscripted during the fall of Berlin, and even some German Jews who had emigrated to South America centuries ago. Does that make give my "make fascists afraid again" slogan more teeth?

(The point here is that culpability and association more generally when it comes to historic atrocities are not easy concepts to figure out)
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-31 15:47:20
May 31 2017 15:47 GMT
#17600
On May 31 2017 19:12 opisska wrote:
This is nothing new, is it? In Germany, people are generally offended if you talk about what "Germans did" during the WWII - it was not them, it was "the Nazis" and the poor common Germans had nothing to do with that. Which is quite hypocritical, but on the other hand, what purpose would it serve to blame the whole nation, which is now made out of completely different people, barring some very old folks?


I don't think that's true honestly. Most people accept a degree of collective guilt as in, the Nazis couldn't have done what they have done without the population at least to a degree supporting it. Few people push all of the responsibility away and act like "didn't know anything, aren't responsible for anything".
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