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On July 31 2013 01:32 peacenl wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 01:17 plgElwood wrote:
Next Shift:
END OF OIL.
It will be the end of the world as we know it. The only thing that has mankind propelled into these speres of technology and lifestyle was the invention of the car/plane and therefor the use of oil.
Is there a reliable source for this? Other than urban myths and conspiracy theories. Last I heard we have enough oil to keep us going for at least 50 years.
And by the time we run out we'll have developed fully functioning electric vehicles. We already have them for the most part, its just a question of making it economically feasible. Don't drink the kool aid.
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On July 31 2013 01:34 packrat386 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 01:32 peacenl wrote:On July 31 2013 01:17 plgElwood wrote:
Next Shift:
END OF OIL.
It will be the end of the world as we know it. The only thing that has mankind propelled into these speres of technology and lifestyle was the invention of the car/plane and therefor the use of oil.
Is there a reliable source for this? Other than urban myths and conspiracy theories. Last I heard we have enough oil to keep us going for at least 50 years. And by the time we run out we'll have developed fully functioning electric vehicles. We already have them for the most part, its just a question of making it economically feasible. Don't drink the kool aid.
The wikipedia page on the subject is very interesting and extensive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil . The problem is not the depletion of the oil reserves, but rather the decline of the extraction rate due to diminishing easy-to-access reserves. Not only planes and cars run on oil, but more importantly everything on your supermarket is also carried around the world by oil, meaning that the prices of basically everything you can buy will grow as the rate of oil supply declines. That alone is enough to challenge the society quite a bit.
In a more positive light (but also more improbable to happen), it would be really cool to have an energetic breakthrough. Imagine what would happen if we had access to the equivalent of a nuclear power plant worth of energy output but at the cost of oil. Things like private space stations and 2-hour world roundabout vehicles would not be out of the question anymore. Fancy a dinner in Thailand tonight? And then back home for bedtime. On the other hand it would also be much easier for the bad guys/crazy people to produce nuclear explosions, so that should also be factored into the equation. But then the police/military would also hold the most extreme versions of these powers, so it might balance out. I think the potential benefits would be greater the hazards of such a technology.
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would be interesting if the end of oil brought a trantor like situation
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On July 31 2013 01:21 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 01:09 Dryzt wrote:
i believe the biggest paradigm shift that was intentionally thwarted was the discoveries of Nickola Tesla. imagine a hundred years ago discovering the tap to limitless wireless power.
until those keeping us in this petroleum economy relinquish their control of these known technologies i dont think any paradigm shifting of any kind will happen. which feeds the idea of the rich and powerful ruling over the rest of us with impunity.
would love for the paradigm shift to go the other way, and the world realizes that the global banking system is a complete fraud and those rich and powerful are suppressing technologies that remove our dependance on them. I swear I hear so many claims about Tesla. He was shafted somewhat, but were some of the things he had devised actually viable to implement at the time nation-wide?
according to Tesla, he could achieve this, but the oil bankers wanted nothing of it once they caught wind of the full scope and it was fully suppressed, we may never know as those in power now are the same families from then still living off the profits of oil and banking. free energy removes the need for both.
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On July 31 2013 01:32 peacenl wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 01:17 plgElwood wrote:
Next Shift:
END OF OIL.
It will be the end of the world as we know it. The only thing that has mankind propelled into these speres of technology and lifestyle was the invention of the car/plane and therefor the use of oil.
Is there a reliable source for this? Other than urban myths and conspiracy theories. Last I heard we have enough oil to keep us going for at least 50 years.
50 years is not a long period, not by any stretch of the imagination. Most, if not all on this message board will live to see 2063. Sure, there is enough oil to keep us going, but because it is getting increasingly difficult to actually extract it, prices will increase, and with it the prices of everything else, most importantly food.
The growth of China can also be a rather substantial paradigm shift. Perhaps not on a cultural level, but on an economic and military level, China's potential is enormous.
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On July 31 2013 03:13 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 01:32 peacenl wrote:On July 31 2013 01:17 plgElwood wrote:
Next Shift:
END OF OIL.
It will be the end of the world as we know it. The only thing that has mankind propelled into these speres of technology and lifestyle was the invention of the car/plane and therefor the use of oil.
Is there a reliable source for this? Other than urban myths and conspiracy theories. Last I heard we have enough oil to keep us going for at least 50 years. 50 years is not a long period, not by any stretch of the imagination. Most, if not all on this message board will live to see 2063. Sure, there is enough oil to keep us going, but because it is getting increasingly difficult to actually extract it, prices will increase, and with it the prices of everything else, most importantly food. The growth of China can also be a rather substantial paradigm shift. Perhaps not on a cultural level, but on an economic and military level, China's potential is enormous.
This is why the "club of rome" was wrong: Yes the oil is harder to extract and prices will go up. But: Technological advancement is incredible fast. We are now able to access oil reserves that were unknown 50 years ago. We simply cannot know how long the oil reserves will sustain because we don't know what technology we will have in 50 years.
Plus: There are already experiments with bacteria to produce oil. So even if the natural oil runs out we might be able to still produce oil.
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Imagine the modern world without oil. Just strike out everything you have because of it.
Everything thats made with oil. (grease, plastic, medicine, H², foil, ....)
Everything powered by oil. (cars, trucks, trains, planes , tractors, CargoSHIPS...)
Everything (or parts of it) transported by anything that has ever used oil.
.....
To the electric-vehicles. Just LoL. Okay there are some cars operating on battery. They exist since 1880 and at first they were liked even more than internal-combustion-engines, because they were silent, and did not stink or catch fire, all of what scared the shit out of the people 130 years AGO.
Back in 1892 Loner-Porsche did 50km/h for 50km and was a fire-engine.
These specs are equal to today´s cars, if the producer would not be cheating on the spec cheat.
And even if in the future there will be sligtly better ones, imagine an economy, that has to pay 10-times the amount of money to produce this car without oil.
You can not even run electric cars without the oil in the grease and electric-components, you could not make plastic to isolate the wires without oil...
and now you packrat386
END OF OIL
means it will be so rare, that is too damn expensive to use
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The printing press was a huge paradigm shift.
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On July 31 2013 03:33 FeUerFlieGe wrote:
The printing press was a huge paradigm shift.
Not until Luther translated and printed the Bible aand other stuff..
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What reaaaaally fascinates me is 3D printing being able to make edible food, such as pizza and dessert and whatnot. It can also be used to make moderately sized objects, such as plates, staplers, and pistols.
Once they become affordable to the extent that every family has their own small 3D printer, this would definitely cause a paradigm shift.
When 3D printing gets advanced to the extent where sofas or washing machines are churned out regularly... prices would plummet as hard as my League ELO in the past week.
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there will be other big changes but next big paradigm shift will definitely be total elimination of labor. automation will take over VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING and the transition will hurt ALOT of jobs. Even some creative and thinking jobs will eventually be taken over by machines as they get more complex and breakdown the process into algorithms. It wouldve been unthinkable for machine to take over driving work over humans, and some might not even trust it to do the job to this day. Yet google is within legal hurdle away from making this thing a reality. And in truth machines actually are way better at driving than humans are today.
maybe way later in the future these machines will get so complex, they will have the same ethical considerations as humans. In that case, if they're emancipated, labor problem will surface again! lol.
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On July 31 2013 00:52 packrat386 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2013 11:59 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Colonization of Space. As we will have more than one world to care for but also ones that we have to build from the ground up and it will be recorded in real time. After a while there could prejudices from people who were born and grew up on Mars, others who think higher of themselves for being on the "home" planet. Then we could very well see past incidents happen all over again, revolutions, nationalism just involving more than one planet than say continents. There are so many reasons why colonization of space is important, and one of them is actually that it could prevent humanity from wiping itself out through war. Unless we develop some sort of faster than light travel interstellar warfare would be almost impossible, since any army that launches will be massively disadvantaged by the years it takes them to get to their enemies. Even if the army was robots or something like that, there would be a technological disadvantage. Space col is cool.
Meant solar system wise but even so such efforts would surely deliver dividends not only economically but in leaps and bounds in computer, engineering, software and even the material sciences. As for war seems a bit of a stretch as when governments, or even a world government, claims something they make sure they receive incentives and will easily place muscle to make sure it is delivered just look at colonization and conquest throughout history.
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The exploration of space is now in the hands of China. Nobody else is able to spent money ( like NASA nad ESA)
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It's impossible to predict the next paradigm shift, due to the fact that if we knew what it was, we'd have achieved it.
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On July 30 2013 12:31 GhostKorean wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2013 12:10 travis wrote:
could be a worldwide police state where a select few have nearly absolute power over all
i sure hope not though If this were to happen, you wouldn't know about it. For all we know, it could already be true.
Epic answer! Couldn't be more true!
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doubleupgradeobbies!
Australia1187 Posts
On July 31 2013 19:55 Basic Basic wrote:
It's impossible to predict the next paradigm shift, due to the fact that if we knew what it was, we'd have achieved it.
I wouldn't necessarily say that, some things we can see coming, it's just there are certain obstacles preventing them from being done that can't be solved by simply seeing that the obstacle is there.
An example would be energy, we know that we will need to get mostly (or maybe completely) off fossil fuels at some stage, we just don't know exactly how we are going to do it. We have some idea of the possible solutions, eg by utilising the thorium fuel cycle, and some immature and developing technologies that are promising(eg travelling wave and molten salt reactors). We have enough problems with fossil fuels and enough of an idea about possible solutions that we know it is coming, we're just not exactly sure how it will come (or that it will definitely be those specific technologies).
Another example I hold close to heart is automation, as I said in an earlier post, technically, we have already reached a stage where many existing jobs are simply better done by machines than people could hope to do them. But we have major economic obstacles stopping all out replacement of human labour in these fields with automation due to the social/political/economic upheaval that would be caused by the resulting unemployment.
I mean replacing those workers with machines results in the same amount (or more) of work being done cheaper, faster, better, safer and more energy efficiently. It is patently ridiculous that our current economic system is such that increased automation could be a bad thing, but it is, so clearly there is a disconnect between our economic model and how things really work. We know this is a problem, it's clear to see that this paradigm shift needs to occur at some stage (indeed it is overdue from a technical standpoint) but we just don't know exactly how we can make it happen yet.
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Peak oil won't be a paradigm shift. There's already electric cars that are just as good as petroleum-powered alternative. Virtually all our energy comes from the Sun and it's a pretty natural course of events that we'll have to start using it.
Global warming may well result in a major paradigm shift, as we might have to adjust the way we live our lives, and whole parts of the world might become unliveable.
As for historical paradigm shifts...has anyone nominated the scientific revolution? This pre-dates the industrial revolution, and in fact it was arguably the main cause of the industrial revolution. There's some arguments for and against this, but I find it hard to believe that the great advances made by scientists wouldn't have trickled down and created a sense of confidence in man's mastery over the world. Pre-scientific revolution, Chinese engineering achievements were just as great as the European ones. Then you get Western dominance. Now that China has embraced modern science, it has the world's best engineers.
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On July 31 2013 03:33 FeUerFlieGe wrote:
The printing press was a huge paradigm shift. It's interesting that this was invented first in China, centuries before Johannes Gutenberg. Although Gutenberg's one was better and started the movable type revolution.
Edit: Of course, the sheer quantity of Chinese characters would undoubtedly have been an obstacle to Chinese inventors.
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Surprised OP didn't mention access to the Internet, or simply just development of personal computers in general. Massive paradigm shift in how life works, information is transferred, etc.
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EPT
