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live results of the caucus for anyone interested, at the time of writing it's 25% paul and 25% santorum 20% romney and 15% gringich
edit: derp infinity, here's the link http://iowacaucus.com/results/
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On January 04 2012 10:41 Derez wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:31 Risen wrote:On January 04 2012 10:02 Derez wrote:On January 04 2012 09:51 bOneSeven wrote:
Sipher it's np I never take personal offence , I just advice people to not get turned up on debates on the internet :D for their own peace of mind, even in class whenever a debate is getting fired I stop talking and observe other people get so mad^^ .
I hope Ron Paul wins the nomination , even if you disagree with him you gotta admit that debates between him and Obama would be way cooler than debates between Obama and the rest of the candidates ^^ .
If Ron Paul doesn't win , I'm gonna be paranoid and say the votes were fixed ( well not fixed , favored , after a % you can't really fool people ) because a political analyst( she appears often on CNN) actually said that they would try to do anything to stop Ron Paul from getting the win , and we have history and evidence of faking of votes .. slightly just so it can help . On the same note , if Ron Paul wins , I will say he got a huge % :D
If nothing dirty happens Ron Paul wins 100% , he has gotten more and more support every day while he was in 1st/2nd place in most pool few weeks ago , so I don't see how he couldn't fairly win . heh , does any1 know when we get the results ? Should I stay up late? Where can I get the info from firsthand ? I recommend fivethirtyeight and the NYTimes liveblog, to be found here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/live-blogging-the-iowa-caucuses/#more-21769http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/results/live/2012-01-3For the record tho, Ron Paul has not been holding a lead in the polls and is not favored to win this. Romney is, based on polling information, but the Iowa caucusses are always flaky due to the relatively small number of people that show up and the way the caucusses are organized. On January 04 2012 10:01 Saryph wrote:
I really don't get people like that youtube video posted earlier in this thread, where the radio host stated 'if Ron Paul doesn't win then the caucus was fixed, and we need to get our guns and shoot people who disagree with us.'
Just because you're pumped up about your candidate or think he is going to win doesn't mean that he will. They don't poll everyone, and no one has any idea how the unpolled majority will act. Also, obviously violence is a big no no :p It's just youtube conspiracy theorists. No matter what happens, they were right to begin with. They need to be disregarded completely in any normal discussion. + Show Spoiler + I'm confused, I thought that Ron Paul was in the lead in polls and that all the media outlets were using a poll from Saturday over and over again so they wouldn't have to show him as being in first. Out of the last 9 polls, Ron Paul has only been first in a single poll, which was a PPP poll, which was one of three polls released on january first. In the other two Romney had the lead. Most polling predictions gave the lead to Romney before today, altho Nate Silver has been making a case for Santorum on 538. That said, CNN has the first entrance polls (people that entered the caucusses), which you can find here.. It's an interesting read, but can still go any way imaginable due to the volatility of the causus process. Not to mention that Iowa voters aren't even bound to a candidate and are allowed to vote for pretty much anyone at the convention. If Romney wins, it will establish him as the frontrunner (with NH coming up). If Paul or Santorum win, it will establish them as at least somewhat viable candidates. Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:36 SuperFanBoy wrote:On January 04 2012 09:46 Derez wrote:
Caucusses open in 15 minutes. Place your bets now, who will be the winner?
Going with Santorum myself, I think the evangelicals are going to bring it home for him. Paul 2nd, Romney 3rd. Media talks about how incredibly this win was for a couple of days.
Any other takers?
(To make it clear, this is who do you THINK will win. Not who do you want to win.) why do evangelicals vote for Santorum when the guy is a neo-con who loves wars... since when did Jesus support wars? lol Ever since Jesus hated gay people, same sex marriage and abortion. (I'm not saying he did, but that's what it comes down to with republican value voters).
Sweet, thanks for the link!
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On January 04 2012 10:41 Derez wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:31 Risen wrote:On January 04 2012 10:02 Derez wrote:On January 04 2012 09:51 bOneSeven wrote:
Sipher it's np I never take personal offence , I just advice people to not get turned up on debates on the internet :D for their own peace of mind, even in class whenever a debate is getting fired I stop talking and observe other people get so mad^^ .
I hope Ron Paul wins the nomination , even if you disagree with him you gotta admit that debates between him and Obama would be way cooler than debates between Obama and the rest of the candidates ^^ .
If Ron Paul doesn't win , I'm gonna be paranoid and say the votes were fixed ( well not fixed , favored , after a % you can't really fool people ) because a political analyst( she appears often on CNN) actually said that they would try to do anything to stop Ron Paul from getting the win , and we have history and evidence of faking of votes .. slightly just so it can help . On the same note , if Ron Paul wins , I will say he got a huge % :D
If nothing dirty happens Ron Paul wins 100% , he has gotten more and more support every day while he was in 1st/2nd place in most pool few weeks ago , so I don't see how he couldn't fairly win . heh , does any1 know when we get the results ? Should I stay up late? Where can I get the info from firsthand ? I recommend fivethirtyeight and the NYTimes liveblog, to be found here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/live-blogging-the-iowa-caucuses/#more-21769http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/results/live/2012-01-3For the record tho, Ron Paul has not been holding a lead in the polls and is not favored to win this. Romney is, based on polling information, but the Iowa caucusses are always flaky due to the relatively small number of people that show up and the way the caucusses are organized. On January 04 2012 10:01 Saryph wrote:
I really don't get people like that youtube video posted earlier in this thread, where the radio host stated 'if Ron Paul doesn't win then the caucus was fixed, and we need to get our guns and shoot people who disagree with us.'
Just because you're pumped up about your candidate or think he is going to win doesn't mean that he will. They don't poll everyone, and no one has any idea how the unpolled majority will act. Also, obviously violence is a big no no :p It's just youtube conspiracy theorists. No matter what happens, they were right to begin with. They need to be disregarded completely in any normal discussion. + Show Spoiler + I'm confused, I thought that Ron Paul was in the lead in polls and that all the media outlets were using a poll from Saturday over and over again so they wouldn't have to show him as being in first. Out of the last 9 polls, Ron Paul has only been first in a single poll, which was a PPP poll, which was one of three polls released on january first. In the other two Romney had the lead. Most polling predictions gave the lead to Romney before today, altho Nate Silver has been making a case for Santorum on 538. That said, CNN has the first entrance polls (people that entered the caucusses), which you can find here.. It's an interesting read, but can still go any way imaginable due to the volatility of the causus process. Not to mention that Iowa voters aren't even bound to a candidate and are allowed to vote for pretty much anyone at the convention. If Romney wins, it will establish him as the frontrunner (with NH coming up). If Paul or Santorum win, it will establish them as at least somewhat viable candidates. Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:36 SuperFanBoy wrote:On January 04 2012 09:46 Derez wrote:
Caucusses open in 15 minutes. Place your bets now, who will be the winner?
Going with Santorum myself, I think the evangelicals are going to bring it home for him. Paul 2nd, Romney 3rd. Media talks about how incredibly this win was for a couple of days.
Any other takers?
(To make it clear, this is who do you THINK will win. Not who do you want to win.) why do evangelicals vote for Santorum when the guy is a neo-con who loves wars... since when did Jesus support wars? lol Ever since Jesus hated gay people, same sex marriage and abortion. (I'm not saying he did, but that's what it comes down to with republican value voters).
you mean Christian fundamentalist value voters right?
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lolwut Santorum is 1st place atm , When do we get a final result?
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On January 04 2012 10:44 Kiarip wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:41 Derez wrote:On January 04 2012 10:31 Risen wrote:On January 04 2012 10:02 Derez wrote:On January 04 2012 09:51 bOneSeven wrote:
Sipher it's np I never take personal offence , I just advice people to not get turned up on debates on the internet :D for their own peace of mind, even in class whenever a debate is getting fired I stop talking and observe other people get so mad^^ .
I hope Ron Paul wins the nomination , even if you disagree with him you gotta admit that debates between him and Obama would be way cooler than debates between Obama and the rest of the candidates ^^ .
If Ron Paul doesn't win , I'm gonna be paranoid and say the votes were fixed ( well not fixed , favored , after a % you can't really fool people ) because a political analyst( she appears often on CNN) actually said that they would try to do anything to stop Ron Paul from getting the win , and we have history and evidence of faking of votes .. slightly just so it can help . On the same note , if Ron Paul wins , I will say he got a huge % :D
If nothing dirty happens Ron Paul wins 100% , he has gotten more and more support every day while he was in 1st/2nd place in most pool few weeks ago , so I don't see how he couldn't fairly win . heh , does any1 know when we get the results ? Should I stay up late? Where can I get the info from firsthand ? I recommend fivethirtyeight and the NYTimes liveblog, to be found here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/live-blogging-the-iowa-caucuses/#more-21769http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/results/live/2012-01-3For the record tho, Ron Paul has not been holding a lead in the polls and is not favored to win this. Romney is, based on polling information, but the Iowa caucusses are always flaky due to the relatively small number of people that show up and the way the caucusses are organized. On January 04 2012 10:01 Saryph wrote:
I really don't get people like that youtube video posted earlier in this thread, where the radio host stated 'if Ron Paul doesn't win then the caucus was fixed, and we need to get our guns and shoot people who disagree with us.'
Just because you're pumped up about your candidate or think he is going to win doesn't mean that he will. They don't poll everyone, and no one has any idea how the unpolled majority will act. Also, obviously violence is a big no no :p It's just youtube conspiracy theorists. No matter what happens, they were right to begin with. They need to be disregarded completely in any normal discussion. + Show Spoiler + I'm confused, I thought that Ron Paul was in the lead in polls and that all the media outlets were using a poll from Saturday over and over again so they wouldn't have to show him as being in first. Out of the last 9 polls, Ron Paul has only been first in a single poll, which was a PPP poll, which was one of three polls released on january first. In the other two Romney had the lead. Most polling predictions gave the lead to Romney before today, altho Nate Silver has been making a case for Santorum on 538. That said, CNN has the first entrance polls (people that entered the caucusses), which you can find here.. It's an interesting read, but can still go any way imaginable due to the volatility of the causus process. Not to mention that Iowa voters aren't even bound to a candidate and are allowed to vote for pretty much anyone at the convention. If Romney wins, it will establish him as the frontrunner (with NH coming up). If Paul or Santorum win, it will establish them as at least somewhat viable candidates. On January 04 2012 10:36 SuperFanBoy wrote:On January 04 2012 09:46 Derez wrote:
Caucusses open in 15 minutes. Place your bets now, who will be the winner?
Going with Santorum myself, I think the evangelicals are going to bring it home for him. Paul 2nd, Romney 3rd. Media talks about how incredibly this win was for a couple of days.
Any other takers?
(To make it clear, this is who do you THINK will win. Not who do you want to win.) why do evangelicals vote for Santorum when the guy is a neo-con who loves wars... since when did Jesus support wars? lol Ever since Jesus hated gay people, same sex marriage and abortion. (I'm not saying he did, but that's what it comes down to with republican value voters). you mean Christian fundamentalist value voters right?
Yes. Republican candidates base entire election strategies around them. There's quite a few of them in the United States of Awesome.
Also, Nate Silver's twitter if you want it: http://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight
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Google has live results here showing Paul in first of a near 3 way tie.
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On January 04 2012 10:36 SuperFanBoy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 09:46 Derez wrote:
Caucusses open in 15 minutes. Place your bets now, who will be the winner?
Going with Santorum myself, I think the evangelicals are going to bring it home for him. Paul 2nd, Romney 3rd. Media talks about how incredibly this win was for a couple of days.
Any other takers?
(To make it clear, this is who do you THINK will win. Not who do you want to win.) why do evangelicals vote for Santorum when the guy is a neo-con who loves wars... since when did Jesus support wars? lol
Sadly, logical reasoning is not a strong suit of evangelicals. It takes an incredible level of cognitive dissonance just to believe in religion in the first place.
I think Ron Paul's going to take Iowa, but I wouldn't count out Santorum pulling a Huckabee (and then being completely irrelevant in the rest of the country).
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Lol this is so close , 24 24 23 ^^
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On January 04 2012 10:53 LxRogue wrote:Google has live results here showing Paul in first of a near 3 way tie.
What would be interesting is a comparison with the primary map from 2008. I'm pretty sure I saw one earlier today, but I can't find it again. Anyone have one?
The huckabee/santorum comparison would be very enlightening to make at this point.
Ah I found it myself: 2008 results per county(?) on the NYTimes website, and it compares them with current results in real time.
A couple of things worth mentioning:
- Romney seems to be weaker in Iowa then in 2008. He is losing counties that he won back then, and he doesn't seem to be making up for it.
- Santorum is losing counties compared to Huckabee.
- Ron Paul is winning more counties then in 2008, altho he won only a single one in 2008 so that's not very surprising.
I'm sticking with the santorum win I predicted ;p, but it's going to end up as a more or less three way tie. The top three continues to NH I reckon, where Romney will take the win. He has met more voters in person overall, which is what counts in a 'state' like that.
Silver over on the 538 twitter:
Romney Behind '08 Benchmark in Cedar County
The Iowa country with the largest share of the vote counted so far is Cedar County, in eastern Iowa between Cedar Rapids and Des Moines. More than half of its precincts have reported.
It's not an especially populous county so interpret this cautiously, but Mitt Romney so far only has 22 percent of the vote there - well behind the 35 percent he took there in 2008.
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Ron Paul takes the lead 24-23-23 GET THAT HORSE RACE PUMPING!!!
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Paul gonna lose 
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On January 04 2012 11:01 Kiarip wrote:Paul gonna lose
Wait wat? I'm looking at the google updates. What are you looking at? And only 6% of the vote is in lol.
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3 way tie for first, pretty crazy
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On January 04 2012 11:02 Risen wrote:Wait wat? I'm looking at the google updates. What are you looking at? And only 6% of the vote is in lol.
Yeah... but you know the Paul supporters were probably the first to get there...
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On January 04 2012 11:03 Kiarip wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:02 Risen wrote:On January 04 2012 11:01 Kiarip wrote:Paul gonna lose Wait wat? I'm looking at the google updates. What are you looking at? And only 6% of the vote is in lol. Yeah... but you know the Paul supporters were probably the first to get there...
Do you even know how the voting works? Hahahaha
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On January 04 2012 11:04 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:03 Kiarip wrote:On January 04 2012 11:02 Risen wrote:On January 04 2012 11:01 Kiarip wrote:Paul gonna lose Wait wat? I'm looking at the google updates. What are you looking at? And only 6% of the vote is in lol. Yeah... but you know the Paul supporters were probably the first to get there... Do you even know how the voting works? Hahahaha
do you know how the voting at the caucuses works?
edit: hahahaha
just to make it more formal like your post is
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If I was going to live in the US, looks like I would live in Van Buren County, 40% for Dr.Paul!
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It will be hilarious if Ron Paul wins the Iowa caucus. Obama victory incoming.
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Guyyyyyys , when does the voting ends ?
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On January 04 2012 11:05 Kiarip wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:04 Risen wrote:On January 04 2012 11:03 Kiarip wrote:On January 04 2012 11:02 Risen wrote:On January 04 2012 11:01 Kiarip wrote:Paul gonna lose Wait wat? I'm looking at the google updates. What are you looking at? And only 6% of the vote is in lol. Yeah... but you know the Paul supporters were probably the first to get there... Do you even know how the voting works? Hahahaha do you know how the voting at the caucuses works? edit: hahahaha just to make it more formal like your post is
You umm... do know they are individually counting the votes and then sending their results in, right?
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EPT![[image loading]](http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/jet_fuel.png)
