EPTNew Zealand politics - Page 9
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
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oldgregg
New Zealand1176 Posts
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CaptainCharisma
New Zealand808 Posts
I will be quite surprised if National don't 'win' the election somehow, but in making my predictions for today's results I cannot help but come up with a different outcome. Here is my prediction: National: 46% Labour: 30% Greens: 14% New Zealand First: 5% - Mana: 1.4% - Hone Harawira wins Te Tai Tokerau, bringing in Annette Sykes from the list. Maori: 1% - Maori candidates will win 4 electorate seats creating an overhang. No other parties will win an electorate or get to 5% - including ACT/John Banks and United Future/Peter Dunne. The remaining % you don't see in my list will be spread across the minor parties that don't make it into Parliament. So based on this, a Labour + Greens + NZF + Mana and/or Maori party will form a government. This is my prediction. Note that on these numbers the Maori party may work with National and this could possibly give Nats + Maori a majority of seats, although the numbers will be really close. | ||
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apalemorning
Canada509 Posts
On November 25 2011 17:01 oldgregg wrote: Hone Harawera seems like the only sensible and honest politician out there imo i didnt know taking taxpayers money to go on a vacation really counts as "honest". | ||
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Jehct
New Zealand9115 Posts
On November 25 2011 16:38 Plexa wrote: Well, we get to vote tomorrow. I don't know who exactly I will vote for. United Future has by far and away the best policies (i.e. free university in lieu of student allowance, plans to increase NZ army focus on peace keeping and special ops, better tax plan) and Dunne has pushed through some good pieces of legislation while in parliament - however, I'm not in his electorate and with the way UF is polling, I don't think he'll be able to scrape another MP in with him if he wins O'hare. For that reason, I might vote NZF as it looks like Winston is barely missing 5% and probably could use the vote, while I dont agree with all of his policies I think a vote for Winston is more likely to keep Key in check in the upcoming 3 years. Having something to keep National honest is incredibly valuable - National governing alone is a scary thought. Except there are already too many university students & not enough tradesmen/other tertiary students in NZ. Free university just encourages more kids to get their degree and go to Australia - at least the interest on loans while overseas gives something back to the NZ economy. It's a nice idea theoretically, and it worked 50 years ago, but it's a grossly outdated concept. Increasing NZ focus on peacekeeping/special ops does what exactly? We aren't threatened and we have one of the worst economies among our trading partners. It's hardly going to open doors or have any serious impact (for anyone); it's just a money-sink we can't afford right now. The tax system is the only thing worth voting for, and UNF is never going to get the power to make it happen, 5% or no. I can't see anything that UNF could get from negotiations that would justify my vote, personally. Then again, everyone else is fatally flawed too. I wish there was actually someone that seemed worth voting for, even if they lied through their teeth. At least I'd feel good at the time. The best hope almost seems like the Greens since they'll actually get some sway without being allowed to do anything stupid. At least their recent influence has been pretty positive - impressive considering how heavily scrutinized (and degraded) they are. | ||
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oldgregg
New Zealand1176 Posts
On November 25 2011 21:27 apalemorning wrote: i didnt know taking taxpayers money to go on a vacation really counts as "honest". they all do that, don't single out hone like the nz media like to do. on a side note, I've voted; Mana, Labour for Electorate, and MMP, GO MANA!!! | ||
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Distortion_nZ
New Zealand41 Posts
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apalemorning
Canada509 Posts
On November 26 2011 06:38 oldgregg wrote: they all do that, don't single out hone like the nz media like to do. on a side note, I've voted; Mana, Labour for Electorate, and MMP, GO MANA!!! quote sources on all politicians go on vacations with tax paper money, quite the claim. and i bet even if they do, they aren't half as cocky as hone is about it. "How many times in my lifetime am I going to get to Europe? So I thought, 'F*** it, I'm off. I'm off to Paris'' - Hone Harawira | ||
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Avaek
New Zealand49 Posts
On November 25 2011 21:44 Jehct wrote: Except there are already too many university students & not enough tradesmen/other tertiary students in NZ. Not sure where you live, but in the far north there is very little work for even experienced tradesmen. I know a lot of guys in their mid 20s who've been in various trades since leaving high school, and the majority of them are now working in Australia or leaving to work in Australia in coming months. It's a pretty rough time for everyone up here. [Edit] I voted Greens, I would have voted ALCP but Gareth Hughes is the shit and we need more politicians like him. | ||
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Dirt McGirt
New Zealand129 Posts
Green have been big movers with Labour flaking out. They've actually gone and developed policies outside of their primary areas (conservation, sustainability etc). They have my vote this time around. I hope the door hits Peter Dunne's ass on the way out! That guy riles me up something chronic (and that's not a dig at his anti-drug position either). People have complained about MMP resulting in the tail wagging the dog... mainly in reference to 3-4 party supply and demand agreements (Labour, green, Maori and X/Y/Z depending on the vote). But Dunne is a single person who has had far more impact than he should have... imo of course. Of course his 'party' can promise you the earth, he knows he'll never have to deliver and no one will get on his case about a watered down version. Education, Economy, Environment - that's what I was focusing on in terms of policy. But my vote is cast so time to sink some brews and see what happens. Whatever your political leanings make sure you Kiwi's VOTE!!!! | ||
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Jehct
New Zealand9115 Posts
On November 26 2011 11:25 Avaek wrote: Not sure where you live, but in the far north there is very little work for even experienced tradesmen. I know a lot of guys in their mid 20s who've been in various trades since leaving high school, and the majority of them are now working in Australia or leaving to work in Australia in coming months. It's a pretty rough time for everyone up here. [Edit] I voted Greens, I would have voted ALCP but Gareth Hughes is the shit and we need more politicians like him. My brother (experienced builder) lived in Taupo and was dry for work for a hella' long time (18 months of almost nothing). He planned to go to Aussie, went to Auckland to make a bit of money before he left and has been working nonstop (6 day working week) ever since. There are definitely labour shortages in NZ, they're just in specific places (ie. the cities). The problem is that people don't want to move, not that there's no work for tradesmen. That, and you can make more money in Aus. | ||
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Lorken
New Zealand804 Posts
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FuRong
New Zealand3089 Posts
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Rodimus Prime
182 Posts
Both National's Nicky Wagner and Labour's Brendon Burns registered 10,493 votes. Crazy like a daisy. | ||
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