Is this more Tim Morten pessimism, or is he planning his big comeback once we're past "peak oversupply"?
Peak oversupply is coming. No amount of platform gatekeeping will avert this. Break-out titles will clearly still be possible, but average releases will effectively be valueless. We were already trending this direction without AI; increasingly powerful tools just accelerate the outcome.
So everyone's energy goes towards answering the same question of how to breakout. And everyone arrives at the same answers. Quality. Uniqueness. Community. Infinite competition drives the bar for executing against these higher and higher.
In a way, it will be good for players: some great games will result. And it will clearly be good for the developers who do score a break-out, which contributes to the flood of new releases.
But the state of the industry is objectively bad for professional developers. Reliable repeatable success is what pays salaries, and that is increasingly scarce. Companies (and IPs) with existing aggregated audiences have some durability, but even there erosion is happening.
Pessimism that mediocrity is no longer rewarded? Hot take from Tim, as usual. The market cap for gaming continues to go up, but not as fast as ease of entry nor international growth. Buddy always talks like a guy who sees dollar signs in an industry and nothing else. No art, no passion. He might as well be talking about commodity trading of raw materials or something.
People will be throwing huge dollars after 100 different games this holiday season, and medium dollars after 500 different games too. Unfortunately a AA/AAA game that is a 6/10 will no longer recoup its cost. Boo hoo, really. I don't miss spending $90CAD on boxed products that were mediocre, as was the case from 1980-2010.
It's the same story for software in a broader sense. The C-tier producers are pushed out and you're not longer entitled to 6-figures USD to be mediocre, at best.
I've felt the same watching Double Fine and Bioware recently as well. I've you want to operate in Cali, you be half as good as Supergiant.
https://store.steampowered.com/app/1165990/Kiln/ would have survived the high cost, high barrier era, but it's no surprised it tanked in 2026. Suddenly Tim Shafer (what is it with these Tims?!) is confused and annoyed.
Peak oversupply is coming. No amount of platform gatekeeping will avert this. Break-out titles will clearly still be possible, but average releases will effectively be valueless. We were already trending this direction without AI; increasingly powerful tools just accelerate the outcome.
So everyone's energy goes towards answering the same question of how to breakout. And everyone arrives at the same answers. Quality. Uniqueness. Community. Infinite competition drives the bar for executing against these higher and higher.
In a way, it will be good for players: some great games will result. And it will clearly be good for the developers who do score a break-out, which contributes to the flood of new releases.
But the state of the industry is objectively bad for professional developers. Reliable repeatable success is what pays salaries, and that is increasingly scarce. Companies (and IPs) with existing aggregated audiences have some durability, but even there erosion is happening.
I expect more turbulence ahead...
Tim is just whining. He has no plans for a comeback.
Where is that guy who kept insisting he was “working on a second game”? Seems like the Second Coming is going to arrive faster.
Gescom wrote: Buddy always talks like a guy who sees dollar signs in an industry and nothing else. No art, no passion. He might as well be talking about commodity trading of raw materials or something.
So true. I honestly don’t think Tim was ever a gamer. He started as a programmer, but got into management as soon as he could.
On October 25 2026 02:39 crablogic wrote: Is this more Tim Morten pessimism, or is he planning his big comeback once we're past "peak oversupply"?
Peak oversupply is coming. No amount of platform gatekeeping will avert this. Break-out titles will clearly still be possible, but average releases will effectively be valueless. We were already trending this direction without AI; increasingly powerful tools just accelerate the outcome.
So everyone's energy goes towards answering the same question of how to breakout. And everyone arrives at the same answers. Quality. Uniqueness. Community. Infinite competition drives the bar for executing against these higher and higher.
In a way, it will be good for players: some great games will result. And it will clearly be good for the developers who do score a break-out, which contributes to the flood of new releases.
But the state of the industry is objectively bad for professional developers. Reliable repeatable success is what pays salaries, and that is increasingly scarce. Companies (and IPs) with existing aggregated audiences have some durability, but even there erosion is happening.
I expect more turbulence ahead...
\ Tim is just whining. He has no plans for a comeback.
Where is that guy who kept insisting he was “working on a second game”? Seems like the Second Coming is going to arrive faster.
Gescom wrote: Buddy always talks like a guy who sees dollar signs in an industry and nothing else. No art, no passion. He might as well be talking about commodity trading of raw materials or something.
So true. I honestly don’t think Tim was ever a gamer. He started as a programmer, but got into management as soon as he could.
he is the Elizabeth Holmes of video games. Seriously though, within a proper org structure Morten is an effective employee. Also, I think Tim Morten truly loved Zork and the Great Underground Empire. I suggest Frost Giant get posthumously renamed as FrobozzCo International.
He was smart and got himself some free money during the 0% gold rush. It is the American way.
Elizabeth Holmes has raised $18M while in jail. Time to start singing the American National Anthem.
On October 21 2026 01:01 Mrs Crabbleman wrote: Holy shit though just to rag on Arkhenonh for a second I've seen a couple clips and I have NO idea what's going on. I feel like I should be able to point out a character I want to play but it's like witch doctors doing karate with huge numbers on the screen wtf
I watched a clip of people playing Arkheron (Akerhon?) and felt exactly the same thing. Then after a while I felt mildly dizzy. Then I stopped watching clips of the game forever.
Maybe the experience of actually playing the game is better, but I'll never find out. In the Age of Twitch, this seems like an unrecoverable mistake.
But then again, it's only at version 0.23! Let them cook! Forever!
I've played it twice in the last two years. Your impression isn't wrong. .
Anywho.. the game is like, completely unreadable to a new player or viewer. You get thrown right in the deep end of the pool. Complete visual slop, hundreds of items and abilities that all do nothing visually but stack numbers on numbers. It's overly simple in all the worst ways and overly complex in all the worst ways at the same time. It's a marvel of a fuckup of a game, frankly. And they undoubtedly seem to be kicking the can down the road on truly unveiling it to the world because they know they have a lemon on their hands and it's going to be the rudest of awakenings when we all have to watch the Stormgate style launch where it hits 1500 concurrent users on launch weekend for a game that spent $55M over 6 years*. .
I can understand why it happens, possibly for the same reason pro chefs make complicated dishes that underwhelm. Exquisite execution of simple food is daunting.
On October 25 2026 02:39 crablogic wrote: Is this more Tim Morten pessimism, or is he planning his big comeback once we're past "peak oversupply"?
Peak oversupply is coming. No amount of platform gatekeeping will avert this. Break-out titles will clearly still be possible, but average releases will effectively be valueless. We were already trending this direction without AI; increasingly powerful tools just accelerate the outcome.
So everyone's energy goes towards answering the same question of how to breakout. And everyone arrives at the same answers. Quality. Uniqueness. Community. Infinite competition drives the bar for executing against these higher and higher.
In a way, it will be good for players: some great games will result. And it will clearly be good for the developers who do score a break-out, which contributes to the flood of new releases.
But the state of the industry is objectively bad for professional developers. Reliable repeatable success is what pays salaries, and that is increasingly scarce. Companies (and IPs) with existing aggregated audiences have some durability, but even there erosion is happening.
I expect more turbulence ahead...
God AI really is going to break the dam. I think to the point where people (players, consumers, nommers) are overcooked and kinda shut down. It's gonna be a gg no re. Tim droppin truth bombs. Tim droppin truth bombs on truth social. Ol' Timmy-stealth-truth-bomber-bags.
Just take me back to ping pong in a moldy basement. Take me straight back to playing Need For Speed II on the same keyboard as my friend holy shit someone on the WASD someone on the arrows. SPIKE STRIP DEPLOYED. OAAHWWW. ABUYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
On October 21 2026 01:01 Mrs Crabbleman wrote: Holy shit though just to rag on Arkhenonh for a second I've seen a couple clips and I have NO idea what's going on. I feel like I should be able to point out a character I want to play but it's like witch doctors doing karate with huge numbers on the screen wtf
I watched a clip of people playing Arkheron (Akerhon?) and felt exactly the same thing. Then after a while I felt mildly dizzy. Then I stopped watching clips of the game forever.
Maybe the experience of actually playing the game is better, but I'll never find out. In the Age of Twitch, this seems like an unrecoverable mistake.
But then again, it's only at version 0.23! Let them cook! Forever!
I've played it twice in the last two years. Your impression isn't wrong. .
Anywho.. the game is like, completely unreadable to a new player or viewer. You get thrown right in the deep end of the pool. Complete visual slop, hundreds of items and abilities that all do nothing visually but stack numbers on numbers. It's overly simple in all the worst ways and overly complex in all the worst ways at the same time. It's a marvel of a fuckup of a game, frankly. And they undoubtedly seem to be kicking the can down the road on truly unveiling it to the world because they know they have a lemon on their hands and it's going to be the rudest of awakenings when we all have to watch the Stormgate style launch where it hits 1500 concurrent users on launch weekend for a game that spent $55M over 6 years*. .
I can understand why it happens, possibly for the same reason pro chefs make complicated dishes that underwhelm. Exquisite execution of simple food is daunting.
On October 25 2026 02:39 crablogic wrote: Is this more Tim Morten pessimism, or is he planning his big comeback once we're past "peak oversupply"?
Peak oversupply is coming. No amount of platform gatekeeping will avert this. Break-out titles will clearly still be possible, but average releases will effectively be valueless. We were already trending this direction without AI; increasingly powerful tools just accelerate the outcome.
So everyone's energy goes towards answering the same question of how to breakout. And everyone arrives at the same answers. Quality. Uniqueness. Community. Infinite competition drives the bar for executing against these higher and higher.
In a way, it will be good for players: some great games will result. And it will clearly be good for the developers who do score a break-out, which contributes to the flood of new releases.
But the state of the industry is objectively bad for professional developers. Reliable repeatable success is what pays salaries, and that is increasingly scarce. Companies (and IPs) with existing aggregated audiences have some durability, but even there erosion is happening.
I expect more turbulence ahead...
God AI really is going to break the dam. I think to the point where people (players, consumers, nommers) are overcooked and kinda shut down. It's gonna be a gg no re. Tim droppin truth bombs. Tim droppin truth bombs on truth social. Ol' Timmy-stealth-truth-bomber-bags.
Just take me back to ping pong in a moldy basement. Take me straight back to playing Need For Speed II on the same keyboard as my friend holy shit someone on the WASD someone on the arrows. SPIKE STRIP DEPLOYED. OAAHWWW. ABUYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
That's a great analogy re: the underwhelming complicated dishes. In the restaurant biz you can't afford to underwhelm for long. Arkheron was definitely there upon unveiling the new dish in 2022. By the time it crashes and burns, they may set the record for doubling, tripling, quadrupling down. At this point they're functioning running a rich kid UBI program with Chinese VC money. But, I've seen other studios do it too. Many of the "ex-Riot" shops are this way. The gravy train is almost fully dried up.
As for Need for Speed II... the irony about the AI ecosystem is that there will be a solo dev working in Romania releasing exactly the game you describe for five bucks. So many amazing retro-feel but with modern QoL games getting released right now. I've been tinkering with these myself (and have released two games on Steam this year).
EPT
