Ukraine Crisis - Page 415

Erik - Niiles Kross : Narva gambit
Published : April 13 at 19:23

If the West continues pretending that Russia is not attacking Ukraine, it will signal to Moscow that such chameleon tactics are effective. I believe that sooner or later, Putin intends to demonstrate how NATO is unable to protect its own members . You can use a similar attack , "Desperate Housewives " -style operation , writes Erik - Niiles Kross.

Yesterday began with a wide-ranging eastern Ukraine, Russian special forces operation, whose primary goals are the creation of chaos , violence, elicitation, the state government's decision-making processes , and capacity of the poor , and thereby restore Moscow's political control over Ukraine .

It is important to remember that Russia does not seek war. The primary goal is to restore the situation in which Ukraine is vasallistaatuses surrenders to the west , and integration. The situation in which the European Union and NATO to help Ukraine in turn incapacitated . The situation in which both the Ukrainians and the world begins to seem that " everyone " is better digested , the central government controls the provincial assembly which depends on the discretion of Moscow as a long -term armed conflict. To achieve this goal , Russia is prepared to engage in an open and prolonged war, but today he is trying to disguise its military aggression yet .

Yesterday was attacked by well- armed and trained the obvious military groups coordinated plan of attack for at least five eastern Ukrainian city government buildings , police stations and weapons depots . Such an operation can be performed only by a single management , a comprehensive operating plan and the teams practiced together . In assessing the " green figure " any person skilled in weaponry and equipment is clear that the armed forces within the atom belongs to the Russian GRU Spetsnaz units. Sptesnazi ​​GRU officers and agents of the Ukrainian Security Service of Ukraine's territory in recent weeks arrested at least four times .

In short , Russia is carried out by an armed destabiliseerimisoperatsioone against another country , which would also prepare the ground for " peacekeeping forces " in the . These borders are notoriously waiting.

Russia in such activities , in addition to a direct military threat extremely dangerous aspect. Russia will do everything possible to give the impression jutkui GRU soldiers acted not only "local activists ", " concerned citizens " and " protesters ". Foreign Minister Lavrov said in yesterday's attacks , that it is " Donbass Frantic, local citizens " activities . In short , Frantic, housewives.

Russia Estimates here are obvious . He tries to give the western countries the opportunity to pretend that the invasion of Russian troops have not begun. As long as Moscow denies its forces to operate in Ukraine , if desired, can be seen as a situation of internal conflict in Ukraine , which the government is unable to control. At one point, trying to Moscow, then get yourself peace of accepting things right . In other words , Moscow performs amazingly cynical petteoperatsiooni , which hopes to western reluctance to admit that the war has begun, and despite all the signs of a military invasion to the play the game " , and the Kyiv venemeelsete pro- ukrainalste " the relationship between the conflict. Russia is trying to get to the hands of the West of lying going on . If this road goes west , the west has a moral superiority , at least in the Ukraine and other countries threatened by Russia in the eyes closed .

Estonia's interest today is that Europe and NATO would call things by the right names. The only thing the public an honest appraisal enables to adequately respond . If the West is going to contribute to the current " internal conflict " rhetoric , Russia is one of the objectives achieved. And the set up is yet another extremely dangerous precedent for Estonia.

It is not Putin's aggression against Ukraine for the Ukrainian addressed only the problem of " solving ". Putin's aim is to SUBORDINATION addition to Ukrainian and Western security organizations , in fact, the entire international security organization to radically change . If you read the rhetoric from the Kremlin, the 2000th year of the new security concept of the Russian , Russia's main foreign policy objective is publicly was not only the suspension of NATO enlargement and Russia as a regional " jõukeskuse » restoration, but also to Western security organization replaced.

That would mean the abolition of NATO and the new security agreements , which the West would accept Russia ainudomineerijana his " sphere of privileged interests ". That's not the way the author of speculation. Specifically, it is an objective outlined in Moscow in 2007. Onwards. Indeed, Putin said at the Munich Security Conference in February 2007: "I am convinced that we have reached a decisive moment when we must seriously think through the architecture of global security ".

In June 2008 , two months before the attack on Georgia , then President Medvejev said that the " Euro-Atlantic security system " ( read NATO - ENK ) days are numbered and that NATO enlargement will continue , it stops Russia's cooperation with the West. It is necessary to have a new global security agreement and " the unity of the entire Euro-Atlantic space from Vancouver to Vladivostok ".

Russia is believed to have no doubt very much that of a conventional military attack on a NATO country today would be too high-risk . Indeed, in recent months, the West has shown that they are ready to protect the Estonian military . Estonia is also about to make a leap in the decade following the conventional military defense building. NATO air defense base in the northwest of the United States , probably arriving soon face a major soomusvõimekuse etc. seniesest we become significantly more serious military nuts. But it shows that Russia is currently in Ukraine are far from conventionality . This is exactly the situation described by Clausewitz : " War is an area of ignorance ; Three -quarters of those things , operating pursuant to which the war has been founded, remains more or less teadmatuseudu shade. So this is going to require first and foremost a subtle , penetrating mind that their sensitive decision-making to discern the truth . " Ukraine is carried out in addition to aggression petteoperatsioon extremely dangerous .

It is in this context the west , Ukraine is currently taking place in Africa 's response to the fantoomsõjale particularly important , because Russia will not only destroy Ukraine's independence , but will test the reactions taking place to the west .

If the West continues today pretending that Russia is not Ukraine was attacked, it will signal to Moscow that such kameeleontaktika is effective .

I believe that sooner or later , Putin intends to demonstrate how NATO is unable to protect its own members . You can use a similar attack , " Desperate Housewives " -style operation .

I propose a scenario in which Russia could be used against Estonia . I do not want to spread panic ,our primary task is to remain very calm and confident . However, it is important not to go along with the possibility of burying heads in the sand . As a way to stop what is happening in Ukraine today we very much depend on how we respond to Russia's next possible steps.

Russia has its own " strange war " the main instrument clearly chosen the GRU special units. They were used in the Crimea , they are used today in eastern Ukraine. They are used as a disguised , masked look-alike military operation, with massive media war and as a communicative creating confusion .

In recent weeks, has repeatedly emphasized that " normal " military attack against Estonia , and the Crimea " referendum " test , for example, is not likely to Narva . I agree with this assessment. Direct military attack would not be in favor of the objectives of Russia today . Russia would be useful for the attack, which did not elicit Article 5 rakendumist but have yet PTO . East - Ukrainian green figure usage for this scenario would be appropriate.

Such surgery Narva (or Kohtla - lake , Sillamäel or Jõhvis ) could be carried out in a few hours . What is needed is not a troop mobilization , an important eksalatsiooni , or even any particular reason from the Estonian -Russian relations . The reason lies in the overall Russian foreign policy . Need not go more than a few kids get a special unit . Separators , well -trained and equipped units , for example, who call themselves " self-defense forces in Ida-Viru » take more than one night , for example, the Narva City Government , power , police , border checkpoint .

The purpose of such an operation would be the separation of Narva in Estonia, although it can be used as an excuse . The purpose of such an operation would be to pull the Estonian authorities raiders , Russia , NATO and the EU in lengthy negotiations to resolve the situation , during which Russia would " refrain from the use of force ". NATO's Article 5 of the launch would also rather questionable. Naturally , Estonia should insist on it instantaneously , because if Article 5 does not start, the Russians , have found a method for proving that NATO does not function.


However, should such an attack on the liquidation of Estonia . NATO fighter planes would not be in such a situation, a significant benefit. Estonia is the truly time to be ready for the attack , not only on paper. Through the fantoomsõjale think appropriate operational impact on the legal side . Defence use of " Desperate Housewives " on the right of Russia to the escalation . The police may not be similar opertatsiooniks ready . Consider the needs of the security forces , the special police or military contingent of some sort of physical presence in Ida-Viru County. Border might think of the military component of the restoration . Estonia's primary need is my estimate of about 1000 for rapid response ready for a special corps of trained men who are preferably located in Ida- Viru.

What's especially important that Estonia must be aware that such an attack is not today Russophobia paranoid fantasy . It would fit well in Russia and Russia 's goals demonstrated the capacity to carry out such activities . Estonia must demonstrate the capability to effectively curb such attacks .