EPTOn December 02 2017 10:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
That really doesn't answer my question.means the rest is useless.
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2017 10:38 mozoku wrote:
I actually answered that here yesterday.
On December 02 2017 10:25 GreenHorizons wrote:
My question to you is how would taking the same amount of money from the tax cuts and excluding people making $250,000+/yr hell we'll say $400,000 for couples, not be a better bill than giving someone making 2,000,000+/yr a $10,000 tax cut?
On December 02 2017 10:17 Danglars wrote:
What dance? The one where you admit people claimed taxes would go up for the middle class and they actually won't until close to the expiry? Wait, that wouldn't be a dance that would be a boring repetition of fact. But you can still do that. I read the thread too and I thought it was being more criticized on the spin than the merits. We can "Wait, but health insurance impact" if we start at an honest playing field, which I think we still don't have.
On December 02 2017 10:04 GreenHorizons wrote:
Besides some people making $60k seeing almost $2,000 larger tax bill (how would that be acceptable?) I'd love to see that all the way up to the billionaires.
Sounds like we're doing the "bad, but acceptable" dance again. Shouldn't be worrying about healthcare costs (regarding taxes) because we should have joined the rest of the developed world in making healthcare a right.
I don't see a reason we couldn't just do the cuts scheduled for people making ~$250k or less and none of the cuts for people making more than that and it wouldn't be a better bill by every practical measure.
On December 02 2017 09:59 Danglars wrote:
That article was actually one of my launch pads assessing impact.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/4DWW3Pq.png)
Now, you might see these are small cuts for families. Interesting to note is the difference in tax burden changes between taking the standard deduction and taking the itemized deduction. You get these 61k married couples with 3kids spending 300$ less on their taxes right out of the gate. 57k married couple with 4 kids spending 400$ less, young married couple with 5 kids making 55.5k$ has $70 less. Hair trim right? Teensy tax cuts.
On December 02 2017 09:38 Introvert wrote:
I'd have to look more but one thing you didn't account for was the collapsing of the tax brackets, which is supposed to reduce taxes on the majority of middle class payers, as well as the increase in the child credit. All these analysis say the same thing, a large majority of tax payers would receive a cut. I haven't had time to run the numbers myself. There are the foundation studies that have been linked and I think this NYT piece was posted a few days ago when it came out.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/28/upshot/what-the-tax-bill-would-look-like-for-25000-middle-class-families.html
Edit: Just because some people are quite dense I would like to point out that I'd prefer a tax bill that cuts taxes for everyone, and doesn't create on scenarios. But alas spending apparently can't be touched so so much for that.
On December 02 2017 09:27 KwarK wrote:
Hey Danglars, are you aware that the deduction is actually decreasing for most families once you account for the exemption being removed?
On December 02 2017 09:22 Danglars wrote:
mozoku and who, again? Mmm?
The American left has a narrative of tax cuts for corporations and not for the middle class. That's why they bundled this together and called it a reform and sweeping cuts.
Sweden's got a gigantic welfare state and individual rate burden that's the highest in the OECD. The hair trim their party proposed is peanuts.
On December 02 2017 09:01 doomdonker wrote:
If this was a simple corporate rate tax cut like Danglers and mozoku are describing, a decent bill shouldn't be hard to pass. They wouldn't be hiding the bill, amending it a billion times behind closed doors and writing in the margins with pen. The Democratic Party, and actual left wing parties in general, don't mind the concept of corporate tax rate cuts. Shit, Sweden's center-left party just proposed a corporate tax cut.
It isn't really though, the Republicans flirted with the idea of RAISING the corporate tax over time so it would be more budget neutral. Its a straight up tax cut for the most wealthy while hiking taxes for actual middle class families (not individuals).
If this was a simple corporate rate tax cut like Danglers and mozoku are describing, a decent bill shouldn't be hard to pass. They wouldn't be hiding the bill, amending it a billion times behind closed doors and writing in the margins with pen. The Democratic Party, and actual left wing parties in general, don't mind the concept of corporate tax rate cuts. Shit, Sweden's center-left party just proposed a corporate tax cut.
It isn't really though, the Republicans flirted with the idea of RAISING the corporate tax over time so it would be more budget neutral. Its a straight up tax cut for the most wealthy while hiking taxes for actual middle class families (not individuals).
mozoku and who, again? Mmm?
The American left has a narrative of tax cuts for corporations and not for the middle class. That's why they bundled this together and called it a reform and sweeping cuts.
Sweden's got a gigantic welfare state and individual rate burden that's the highest in the OECD. The hair trim their party proposed is peanuts.
Hey Danglars, are you aware that the deduction is actually decreasing for most families once you account for the exemption being removed?
I'd have to look more but one thing you didn't account for was the collapsing of the tax brackets, which is supposed to reduce taxes on the majority of middle class payers, as well as the increase in the child credit. All these analysis say the same thing, a large majority of tax payers would receive a cut. I haven't had time to run the numbers myself. There are the foundation studies that have been linked and I think this NYT piece was posted a few days ago when it came out.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/28/upshot/what-the-tax-bill-would-look-like-for-25000-middle-class-families.html
Edit: Just because some people are quite dense I would like to point out that I'd prefer a tax bill that cuts taxes for everyone, and doesn't create on scenarios. But alas spending apparently can't be touched so so much for that.
That article was actually one of my launch pads assessing impact.
A couple of things should jump out right away. First, there are more dots on the right side of the chart than the left — more households would get a tax cut than a tax increase. (The chart represents the impact in 2018; the situation looks considerably different in 2027, after many provisions of the bill are set to expire.)
Nearly everyone who takes the standard deduction gets a tax cut in 2018
Now, you might see these are small cuts for families. Interesting to note is the difference in tax burden changes between taking the standard deduction and taking the itemized deduction. You get these 61k married couples with 3kids spending 300$ less on their taxes right out of the gate. 57k married couple with 4 kids spending 400$ less, young married couple with 5 kids making 55.5k$ has $70 less. Hair trim right? Teensy tax cuts.
Besides some people making $60k seeing almost $2,000 larger tax bill (how would that be acceptable?) I'd love to see that all the way up to the billionaires.
On December 02 2017 10:02 Danglars wrote:
It's meaningful if people are claiming taxes are going up on the middle class as a result of the bill, without the stipulation that the tax cut is slated to expire. Or trying to factor in all these health insurance subsidies they're going to miss out on because they've chosen not to buy health insurance because it isn't foisted upon them. I want to preserve my criticism for the tax bill on what it is (It does not have my support), by plainly examining falsehoods on what it isn't.
On December 02 2017 09:54 GreenHorizons wrote:
"A tax cut" is meaningless. Cutting people's taxes $1 is "a tax cut" but only rhetorically. I can't think of any sensible reason that someone making $2,000,000 needs a $10k tax cut or how that boosts the economy. The marginal utility of that money is practically nil for the millionaires and would be huge for people making much less.
It sounds good to say "everyone should get a tax cut" but there's no reasonable economic argument for millionaires (or especially billionaires) getting tax cuts in these conditions, especially an estate tax repeal.
On December 02 2017 09:48 Danglars wrote:
Business Insider
from WSJ-JCT leak
Basically, the majority get a net tax cut. Yes, that includes most of the middle class. Many of these are very small cuts.
The fiscal hawks/compliance make it expire and most everybody's taxes go up when that happens. That includes the middle class. If you put 2027 in the forecast when a lot of this expires, you're fucking over the middle class. Republicans are banking a lot for their renewal, and have some hope for that considering the treatment of the Bush temporary tax cuts. The expiry date is absolutely fair ground for criticism. Tilting this too much towards corporate tax reform is also fair ground for criticism ... I'd rather see that be a separate bill and do bigger promised reforms to individual tax rates now. But don't kid yourself: this is a tax cut for the majority of Americans across income brackets until expiry.
A Joint Committee on Taxation analysis of the Senate GOP tax bill leaked late Wednesday.
The report found that in 2019, 8.1% of Americans would see their taxes increase by at least $100, while 61.7% would see a cut of at least $100.
In subsequent years, however, fewer people would see a tax cut — especially after changes to the individual brackets expire.
A new analysis of the Senate Republican tax bill found that while most people would see an initial tax cut under the plan, many would see their taxes increase over time without subsequent legislative adjustments.
The analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation, prepared on Monday and leaked late Wednesday, found that the GOP bill, named the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, would increase taxes for some Americans as soon as 2019. By 2027, according to the analysis, nearly all Americans would see an increase or no cut at all.
The primary reason most Americans would not see a tax cut in further-out years is that individual tax rates would change — adjustments to those brackets would last through 2025, while the corporate rate cut, to 20% from 35%, would be permanent.
That means that by 2027, 84.1% of Americans would see no change or an increase of at least $100 in their taxes compared with under current law, the analysis found.
Lower-income households would be hit harder in later years, according to the analysis — 88.4% of people making $40,000 to $50,000 a year would see no change or an increase in their taxes.
Meanwhile, of people with incomes over $1 million, only 39.9% would see no change or an increase in their taxes, while 60.1% would get a cut of more than $100.
The Senate Republican bill proposes to reverse the individual cuts to comply with Senate rules. Republicans have also argued that a future Congress will extend the cuts when they are set to expire.
The report found that in 2019, 8.1% of Americans would see their taxes increase by at least $100, while 61.7% would see a cut of at least $100.
In subsequent years, however, fewer people would see a tax cut — especially after changes to the individual brackets expire.
A new analysis of the Senate Republican tax bill found that while most people would see an initial tax cut under the plan, many would see their taxes increase over time without subsequent legislative adjustments.
The analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation, prepared on Monday and leaked late Wednesday, found that the GOP bill, named the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, would increase taxes for some Americans as soon as 2019. By 2027, according to the analysis, nearly all Americans would see an increase or no cut at all.
The primary reason most Americans would not see a tax cut in further-out years is that individual tax rates would change — adjustments to those brackets would last through 2025, while the corporate rate cut, to 20% from 35%, would be permanent.
That means that by 2027, 84.1% of Americans would see no change or an increase of at least $100 in their taxes compared with under current law, the analysis found.
Lower-income households would be hit harder in later years, according to the analysis — 88.4% of people making $40,000 to $50,000 a year would see no change or an increase in their taxes.
Meanwhile, of people with incomes over $1 million, only 39.9% would see no change or an increase in their taxes, while 60.1% would get a cut of more than $100.
The Senate Republican bill proposes to reverse the individual cuts to comply with Senate rules. Republicans have also argued that a future Congress will extend the cuts when they are set to expire.
In 2019:
61.7% of Americans would see a tax cut of $100 or more, 30.2% a change of less than $100, 8.1% an increase of at least $100.
71.7% of people with incomes of $40,000 to $50,000 would see a tax cut of more than $100, 20.5% little change, 7.7% an increase of more than $100.
83.7% of people with incomes of $100,000 to $200,000 would see a tax cut of more than $100, 1.9% little change, 14.3% an increase of more than $100.
80.4% of people with incomes of more than $1 million would see a cut of more than $100, 0.2% little change, 19.4% an increase of more than $100.
In 2023:
55.9% of Americans would see a cut, 30.9% little change, 13.1% an increase.
63.5% of people with incomes of $40,000 to $50,000 would see a cut, 24.2% little change, 12.3% an increase.
76.7% of people with incomes of $100,000 to $200,000 would see a cut, 2.5% little change, 20.8% an increase.
70.7% of people with incomes of more than $1 million would see a cut, 0.3% little change, 29% an increase.
61.7% of Americans would see a tax cut of $100 or more, 30.2% a change of less than $100, 8.1% an increase of at least $100.
71.7% of people with incomes of $40,000 to $50,000 would see a tax cut of more than $100, 20.5% little change, 7.7% an increase of more than $100.
83.7% of people with incomes of $100,000 to $200,000 would see a tax cut of more than $100, 1.9% little change, 14.3% an increase of more than $100.
80.4% of people with incomes of more than $1 million would see a cut of more than $100, 0.2% little change, 19.4% an increase of more than $100.
In 2023:
55.9% of Americans would see a cut, 30.9% little change, 13.1% an increase.
63.5% of people with incomes of $40,000 to $50,000 would see a cut, 24.2% little change, 12.3% an increase.
76.7% of people with incomes of $100,000 to $200,000 would see a cut, 2.5% little change, 20.8% an increase.
70.7% of people with incomes of more than $1 million would see a cut, 0.3% little change, 29% an increase.
Business Insider
from WSJ-JCT leak
Basically, the majority get a net tax cut. Yes, that includes most of the middle class. Many of these are very small cuts.
The fiscal hawks/compliance make it expire and most everybody's taxes go up when that happens. That includes the middle class. If you put 2027 in the forecast when a lot of this expires, you're fucking over the middle class. Republicans are banking a lot for their renewal, and have some hope for that considering the treatment of the Bush temporary tax cuts. The expiry date is absolutely fair ground for criticism. Tilting this too much towards corporate tax reform is also fair ground for criticism ... I'd rather see that be a separate bill and do bigger promised reforms to individual tax rates now. But don't kid yourself: this is a tax cut for the majority of Americans across income brackets until expiry.
"A tax cut" is meaningless. Cutting people's taxes $1 is "a tax cut" but only rhetorically. I can't think of any sensible reason that someone making $2,000,000 needs a $10k tax cut or how that boosts the economy. The marginal utility of that money is practically nil for the millionaires and would be huge for people making much less.
It sounds good to say "everyone should get a tax cut" but there's no reasonable economic argument for millionaires (or especially billionaires) getting tax cuts in these conditions, especially an estate tax repeal.
It's meaningful if people are claiming taxes are going up on the middle class as a result of the bill, without the stipulation that the tax cut is slated to expire. Or trying to factor in all these health insurance subsidies they're going to miss out on because they've chosen not to buy health insurance because it isn't foisted upon them. I want to preserve my criticism for the tax bill on what it is (It does not have my support), by plainly examining falsehoods on what it isn't.
Sounds like we're doing the "bad, but acceptable" dance again. Shouldn't be worrying about healthcare costs (regarding taxes) because we should have joined the rest of the developed world in making healthcare a right.
I don't see a reason we couldn't just do the cuts scheduled for people making ~$250k or less and none of the cuts for people making more than that and it wouldn't be a better bill by every practical measure.
What dance? The one where you admit people claimed taxes would go up for the middle class and they actually won't until close to the expiry? Wait, that wouldn't be a dance that would be a boring repetition of fact. But you can still do that. I read the thread too and I thought it was being more criticized on the spin than the merits. We can "Wait, but health insurance impact" if we start at an honest playing field, which I think we still don't have.
My question to you is how would taking the same amount of money from the tax cuts and excluding people making $250,000+/yr hell we'll say $400,000 for couples, not be a better bill than giving someone making 2,000,000+/yr a $10,000 tax cut?
I actually answered that here yesterday.
That really doesn't answer my question.means the rest is useless.
It's amazing people think faux Econ-101 proves shit. Well identified microeconometric studies (preferably from AER, QJE or the like) come much closer to proving shit, but I haven't seen him point to one. How about a survey of top economists instead?
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/tax-reform-2
