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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
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On November 20 2017 07:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2017 07:09 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:34 Adreme wrote:On November 20 2017 06:21 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:09 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:57 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 05:53 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:50 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 04:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 20 2017 04:15 Danglars wrote:
[quote]
Trump was a teensy weensy closer to conservative policies than Hillary. But keep falling flat on using Trump to tar conservatism. You’re better off sticking to Moore and family values.
By the way, your “partisanly neutral application of the laws” gave me a good laugh. Forget unpacking that, let’s just bask in the slurs as arguments. Trump's current* philosophies toward science, civil rights for women and minorities, and social policies are much, much more conservative than Hillary's current philosophies. In fact, the only shared liberal stance I can think of is that they're both fine with gay marriage, even though Trump then went ahead and took the ultra anti-gay Mike Pence as VP runningmate... And with that plus Trump's phobia of anything trans or non-cisgendered, he and his administration are quite clearly not LGBT supporters. *I say "current" because many of his positions (e.g., abortion) change year to year or even month to month. For example, I don't even know where Trump stands on abortion anymore, and he's accustomed to pandering to everyone so it's hard to pin him down to what he really believes anyway. Half the time, he'll say he believes whatever you want him to believe, if it earns him a little money or power. Lol at your descriptions. Yes, Democratic talking points crafted by Democrats to smear the opposition portray the opposition in a bad light. Holy cow, stop the presses. Science. Now a Democratic talking made to smear Republicans with. Umm Dems have been calling Reps anti-science for a while now. It’s probably just behind the women-and-minorities tripe in frequency. Maybe they wouldn't do so if Republicans didn't keep denying scientific evidence on a regular basis. Climate Change? Clean coal? When was the last time trickle down economics worked? I think there is a tax plan in congress right now where private jets help lower and middle classes. As with so many things Republicans don't like being called. Have you considered not being the thing you don't like being called? The purportedly party of science always tends to shout down the opposition and demand government control and death to industry. Sorry, but America’s energy needs don’t comport with utopian desires for clean energy. I’m not holding my breath for idiotic leftists getting on board with nuclear or other high-power clean energy technology. Dems like their narratives. Science has little tolerance for them. I’ll wait until your policy prescriptions are more science-based and less ideology-based I get that you like to make statements that are nothing more then empty talking points with no basis in reality but you do realize that this administration is the one hiring non-scientists for jobs that used to only go to scientists and trying to purge scientists from various panels. That isnt some debatable point by the way its a thing they are actively doing because there solution when science disagrees with there position is to silence the scientists. I respond to partisan talking points with partisan talking points sometimes. Particularly when the author pretends to be objective. One can very objectively point out that one party (to which they may have a partisan bias independent of the commentary itself) has notably worse policies regarding say, scientific publication, education and application, than the other. That isn't a partisan talking point, that's having a basic grasp of reality.
I'm in general agreement that the Democratic party is probably on average more "pro-science", but it's certainly more complicated than an "objective fact." The Democrats are definitely more willing to fund science and like to market themselves as "pro-science", sure.
In practice though, the "scientific" left-wing institutions are in a definite rough patch. Academia is in the midst of a replication crisis largely funded by taxpayer dollars (yeah, what a great use of funds...), and these "scientific" election forecasters that all predicted Hillary winning in a landslide obviously aren't really all that "scientific" in practice (there are exceptions of course; I have a lot of respect for Nate Silver's work).
Meanwhile, the most economically impactful technology advances atm are coming mostly from barely regulated and not government funded tech firms, whose corporatist mantra is closer to Republican philosophy than Democrat (though ironically, their perceived political allies and enemies are the reverse).
There's a large difference between enthusiasm for science and enabling successful science. I'd say the Democrats do well on the first part, but doing good science requires not only enthusiasm and creativity, but discipline and skepticism. It doesn't neatly fit neatly on a left-right scale, and I think it's interesting to consider that that might be a factor in why, historically, scientific success has usually occurred in places where right-left are aligned and working together (e.g. WW2, Cold War, Silicon Valley).
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On November 19 2017 22:31 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On November 19 2017 20:57 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Saying that the world hasn't collapsed and the skly fallen (what exactly would that entail? mass genocide?) with the presidency of Trump is a pretty low bar to clear. You are bascially saying that Trump should be applauded for not causing a nuclear war.
On the other hand, the fallout of emboldening of white supremists and pardoning of white supremists to the detriment of the rule of law and wellbeing on USA will be occuring for a long time yet. perhaps you don't care. Amongst other policies he appears to be persuing. No, because it's not my claim, this is the same childish trick from the campaign. Refuting something asinine doesn't put you on the same level as whatever the random claim is. If I called you a serial suicide baiter and said you would get 50 schoolgirls to jump off buildings in the next 4 years, you would probably be confused if after you said "no," I chimed in with "setting the bar pretty low aren't we?" Now imagine 1 year has passed and the tally is at 0 schoolgirls. That's what I'm seeing. Also, if we were to work in the framework of inevitability where anything good that happens while Trump is president is actually Obama, then so is anything bad, including nuclear war at least as far as it concerns North Korea, which is the only place that's at risk of it right now, that problem is directly inherited from the failure of Clinton/Bush/Obama. Nuclear war at least being a specific example to unpack. Show nested quote +On November 19 2017 22:29 Aquanim wrote:On November 19 2017 20:41 oBlade wrote:On November 19 2017 15:48 Aquanim wrote:On November 19 2017 15:38 oBlade wrote:
We're at T+1 year and everything seems fine at the least so if in another 3 the country and world still haven't collapsed and the sky fallen, the hysterical rhetoric is going to look bad in hindsight, it's going to be apparent all people really did was vote for a Republindependent candidate and trying to play some kind of existential problem card was not credible. This doesn't seem like a logically sound chain of thought. Just because you happened to take a bad risk and it didn't blow up in your face doesn't mean you should take that risk again, and it doesn't mean that the people who warned you it was a bad risk were wrong. It's the essence of Bayesian reasoning that if something happened that you didn't expect, maybe you were wrong in the first place, especially if the same people keep being wrong about things that have a 2 percent chance of happening, their conclusions become more and more suspect. You're going to need to specify who "the same people" are and which "things" you claim have a 2% chance of happening they keep wrongly predicting for this argument to hold. A single data point is not particularly meaningful, whether you use the words "Bayesian reasoning" or not. It's pretty obviously referencing Trump's chances of winning the election, and then mockingly estimating the chances people would give of him NOT fucking everything up. Whatever the prior probability of colossal failure is we can grant that it's not small, because if it were small enough it wouldn't count as a risk anymore and then what would we be talking about here? I'm not making an argument except political agnosticism and you should assume everything's approximately average unless it can be demonstrated otherwise. I'm also not trying to make an argument from pretentiousness as I don't think statistics is that inaccessible but one data point can have a big impact.
Wait, so what you are saying is that because we haven't all died from a nuclear war, Trump is not a terrible president. OK. I guess making sense is not your forte.
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On November 20 2017 09:24 mozoku wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2017 07:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 20 2017 07:09 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:34 Adreme wrote:On November 20 2017 06:21 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:09 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:57 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 05:53 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:50 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 04:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
[quote]
Trump's current* philosophies toward science, civil rights for women and minorities, and social policies are much, much more conservative than Hillary's current philosophies. In fact, the only shared liberal stance I can think of is that they're both fine with gay marriage, even though Trump then went ahead and took the ultra anti-gay Mike Pence as VP runningmate... And with that plus Trump's phobia of anything trans or non-cisgendered, he and his administration are quite clearly not LGBT supporters.
*I say "current" because many of his positions (e.g., abortion) change year to year or even month to month. For example, I don't even know where Trump stands on abortion anymore, and he's accustomed to pandering to everyone so it's hard to pin him down to what he really believes anyway. Half the time, he'll say he believes whatever you want him to believe, if it earns him a little money or power. Lol at your descriptions. Yes, Democratic talking points crafted by Democrats to smear the opposition portray the opposition in a bad light. Holy cow, stop the presses. Science. Now a Democratic talking made to smear Republicans with. Umm Dems have been calling Reps anti-science for a while now. It’s probably just behind the women-and-minorities tripe in frequency. Maybe they wouldn't do so if Republicans didn't keep denying scientific evidence on a regular basis. Climate Change? Clean coal? When was the last time trickle down economics worked? I think there is a tax plan in congress right now where private jets help lower and middle classes. As with so many things Republicans don't like being called. Have you considered not being the thing you don't like being called? The purportedly party of science always tends to shout down the opposition and demand government control and death to industry. Sorry, but America’s energy needs don’t comport with utopian desires for clean energy. I’m not holding my breath for idiotic leftists getting on board with nuclear or other high-power clean energy technology. Dems like their narratives. Science has little tolerance for them. I’ll wait until your policy prescriptions are more science-based and less ideology-based I get that you like to make statements that are nothing more then empty talking points with no basis in reality but you do realize that this administration is the one hiring non-scientists for jobs that used to only go to scientists and trying to purge scientists from various panels. That isnt some debatable point by the way its a thing they are actively doing because there solution when science disagrees with there position is to silence the scientists. I respond to partisan talking points with partisan talking points sometimes. Particularly when the author pretends to be objective. One can very objectively point out that one party (to which they may have a partisan bias independent of the commentary itself) has notably worse policies regarding say, scientific publication, education and application, than the other. That isn't a partisan talking point, that's having a basic grasp of reality. I'm in general agreement that the Democratic party is probably on average more "pro-science", but it's certainly more complicated than an "objective fact." The Democrats are definitely more willing to fund science and like to market themselves as "pro-science", sure. In practice though, the "scientific" left-wing institutions are in a definite rough patch. Academia is in the midst of a replication crisis largely funded by taxpayer dollars (yeah, what a great use of funds...), and these "scientific" election forecasters that all predicted Hillary winning in a landslide obviously aren't really all that "scientific" in practice (there are exceptions of course; I have a lot of respect for Nate Silver's work). Meanwhile, the most economically impactful technology advances atm are coming mostly from barely regulated and not government funded tech firms, whose corporatist mantra is closer to Republican philosophy than Democrat (though ironically, their perceived political allies and enemies are the reverse). There's a large difference between enthusiasm for science and enabling successful science. I'd say the Democrats do well on the first part, but liberals tend not to be the skeptical type moreso than Republicans, and that causes its own problems.
The tech drivers may be more "libertarian" in corporate philosophy, but are largely in conflict with the Republican party politics.
I mean, those companies are all hiring foreign workers, developing automation, working on renewable energy, etc. And they rely heavily on Asia for manufacturing. Not to mention the whole fight over national security vs data control.
Nothing pro science or pro tech about investing in coal miners.
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On November 20 2017 09:24 mozoku wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2017 07:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 20 2017 07:09 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:34 Adreme wrote:On November 20 2017 06:21 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:09 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:57 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 05:53 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:50 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 04:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
[quote]
Trump's current* philosophies toward science, civil rights for women and minorities, and social policies are much, much more conservative than Hillary's current philosophies. In fact, the only shared liberal stance I can think of is that they're both fine with gay marriage, even though Trump then went ahead and took the ultra anti-gay Mike Pence as VP runningmate... And with that plus Trump's phobia of anything trans or non-cisgendered, he and his administration are quite clearly not LGBT supporters.
*I say "current" because many of his positions (e.g., abortion) change year to year or even month to month. For example, I don't even know where Trump stands on abortion anymore, and he's accustomed to pandering to everyone so it's hard to pin him down to what he really believes anyway. Half the time, he'll say he believes whatever you want him to believe, if it earns him a little money or power. Lol at your descriptions. Yes, Democratic talking points crafted by Democrats to smear the opposition portray the opposition in a bad light. Holy cow, stop the presses. Science. Now a Democratic talking made to smear Republicans with. Umm Dems have been calling Reps anti-science for a while now. It’s probably just behind the women-and-minorities tripe in frequency. Maybe they wouldn't do so if Republicans didn't keep denying scientific evidence on a regular basis. Climate Change? Clean coal? When was the last time trickle down economics worked? I think there is a tax plan in congress right now where private jets help lower and middle classes. As with so many things Republicans don't like being called. Have you considered not being the thing you don't like being called? The purportedly party of science always tends to shout down the opposition and demand government control and death to industry. Sorry, but America’s energy needs don’t comport with utopian desires for clean energy. I’m not holding my breath for idiotic leftists getting on board with nuclear or other high-power clean energy technology. Dems like their narratives. Science has little tolerance for them. I’ll wait until your policy prescriptions are more science-based and less ideology-based I get that you like to make statements that are nothing more then empty talking points with no basis in reality but you do realize that this administration is the one hiring non-scientists for jobs that used to only go to scientists and trying to purge scientists from various panels. That isnt some debatable point by the way its a thing they are actively doing because there solution when science disagrees with there position is to silence the scientists. I respond to partisan talking points with partisan talking points sometimes. Particularly when the author pretends to be objective. One can very objectively point out that one party (to which they may have a partisan bias independent of the commentary itself) has notably worse policies regarding say, scientific publication, education and application, than the other. That isn't a partisan talking point, that's having a basic grasp of reality. I'm in general agreement that the Democratic party is probably on average more "pro-science", but it's certainly more complicated than an "objective fact." The Democrats are definitely more willing to fund science and like to market themselves as "pro-science", sure. In practice though, the "scientific" left-wing institutions are in a definite rough patch. Academia is in the midst of a replication crisis largely funded by taxpayer dollars (yeah, what a great use of funds...), and these "scientific" election forecasters that all predicted Hillary winning in a landslide obviously aren't really all that "scientific" in practice (there are exceptions of course; I have a lot of respect for Nate Silver's work). Meanwhile, the most economically impactful technology advances atm are coming mostly from barely regulated and not government funded tech firms, whose corporatist mantra is closer to Republican philosophy than Democrat (though ironically, their perceived political allies and enemies are the reverse). There's a large difference between enthusiasm for science and enabling successful science. I'd say the Democrats do well on the first part, but liberals tend not to be the skeptical type moreso than Republicans, and that causes its own problems.
I do agree with the last paragraph here. That's certainly an issue like LegalLord also mentioned as well. Anything sciency gets cheered at without a need of a second look. So that's there.
But suggesting that the Republican "thing" is skepticism is putting it way too nicely imo. It is flat out embracement of "believe whatever you want to believe in!" and nothing else. Like someone mentioned earlier, take the question about wether or not people believe in evolution from the Republican primary that had 3 out of 10 people raise their hand when asked if they do believe in evolution. I still remember that because it was some of the weirdest things I've seen up to that point, speaking as a German looking on it from the outside.
I've always thought that that's some really obscure, hyper religious zealot kind of thing but 3 (!) people on the stage who want to run for President raise their hand at that question because they either don't believe in evolution, or more likely (I'd hope oO), are too scared to say they do believe in evolution on TV because it doesn't sit well with the people.
Skepticism is way too nice of a word for that and they do pander hard towards that break with reality or idk, whatever you want to call it.
And that attitude is the issue here mostly imo
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5-10 years for shoplifting, "as it should be". What the fuck?
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Why exactly is “tech” considered to be so innovative compared to government R&D and academia? It’s undeniable that they do some good work in AI, data mining, cybersecurity, consumer electronics, and various other software fields, but they’re full to the brim of heavily funded bullshit artists and their contributions to R&D progress is quite run-of-the-mill for the amount of resources devoted to those projects. As far as I’ve seen they’re better at convincing a wide swath of idiots that they’re innovative (“Twitter enables revolution against dictators!” or that electronic juicer that raised an absurd amount of investment money despite being a nothing-burger) than they are at actual innovation . And a lot of their genuine progress (e.g. building an AI that won against the Go champion) was built upon work done by that old fart academia as much as if not more than by corporate R&D.
Not that there’s nothing good that comes out of tech, but I have yet to see that they are so much more productive rather than just better at bullshitting out the wazoo to make people think it to be so. Good government/academia results tend not to draw as much attention as the next CEO worship cult in the Valley claiming they revolutionized everything. And these facades generally last about as long as there are enough gullible investors with deep pockets to buy into a feel-good story.
And let’s not mince words: their “libertarian” business bent is little more than them not wanting to be regulated for their ethically questionable business practices. Nothing honorable or innovative about that.
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United States43350 Posts
On November 20 2017 09:24 mozoku wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2017 07:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 20 2017 07:09 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:34 Adreme wrote:On November 20 2017 06:21 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:09 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:57 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 05:53 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:50 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 04:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
[quote]
Trump's current* philosophies toward science, civil rights for women and minorities, and social policies are much, much more conservative than Hillary's current philosophies. In fact, the only shared liberal stance I can think of is that they're both fine with gay marriage, even though Trump then went ahead and took the ultra anti-gay Mike Pence as VP runningmate... And with that plus Trump's phobia of anything trans or non-cisgendered, he and his administration are quite clearly not LGBT supporters.
*I say "current" because many of his positions (e.g., abortion) change year to year or even month to month. For example, I don't even know where Trump stands on abortion anymore, and he's accustomed to pandering to everyone so it's hard to pin him down to what he really believes anyway. Half the time, he'll say he believes whatever you want him to believe, if it earns him a little money or power. Lol at your descriptions. Yes, Democratic talking points crafted by Democrats to smear the opposition portray the opposition in a bad light. Holy cow, stop the presses. Science. Now a Democratic talking made to smear Republicans with. Umm Dems have been calling Reps anti-science for a while now. It’s probably just behind the women-and-minorities tripe in frequency. Maybe they wouldn't do so if Republicans didn't keep denying scientific evidence on a regular basis. Climate Change? Clean coal? When was the last time trickle down economics worked? I think there is a tax plan in congress right now where private jets help lower and middle classes. As with so many things Republicans don't like being called. Have you considered not being the thing you don't like being called? The purportedly party of science always tends to shout down the opposition and demand government control and death to industry. Sorry, but America’s energy needs don’t comport with utopian desires for clean energy. I’m not holding my breath for idiotic leftists getting on board with nuclear or other high-power clean energy technology. Dems like their narratives. Science has little tolerance for them. I’ll wait until your policy prescriptions are more science-based and less ideology-based I get that you like to make statements that are nothing more then empty talking points with no basis in reality but you do realize that this administration is the one hiring non-scientists for jobs that used to only go to scientists and trying to purge scientists from various panels. That isnt some debatable point by the way its a thing they are actively doing because there solution when science disagrees with there position is to silence the scientists. I respond to partisan talking points with partisan talking points sometimes. Particularly when the author pretends to be objective. One can very objectively point out that one party (to which they may have a partisan bias independent of the commentary itself) has notably worse policies regarding say, scientific publication, education and application, than the other. That isn't a partisan talking point, that's having a basic grasp of reality. I'm in general agreement that the Democratic party is probably on average more "pro-science", but it's certainly more complicated than an "objective fact." The Democrats are definitely more willing to fund science and like to market themselves as "pro-science", sure. In practice though, the "scientific" left-wing institutions are in a definite rough patch. Academia is in the midst of a replication crisis largely funded by taxpayer dollars (yeah, what a great use of funds...), and these "scientific" election forecasters that all predicted Hillary winning in a landslide obviously aren't really all that "scientific" in practice (there are exceptions of course; I have a lot of respect for Nate Silver's work). Meanwhile, the most economically impactful technology advances atm are coming mostly from barely regulated and not government funded tech firms, whose corporatist mantra is closer to Republican philosophy than Democrat (though ironically, their perceived political allies and enemies are the reverse). There's a large difference between enthusiasm for science and enabling successful science. I'd say the Democrats do well on the first part, but doing good science requires not only enthusiasm and creativity, but discipline and skepticism. It doesn't neatly fit neatly on a left-right scale, and I think it's interesting to consider that that might be a factor in why, historically, scientific success has usually occurred in places where right-left are aligned and working together (e.g. WW2, Cold War, Silicon Valley).
If you think that an event that was modeled as being entirely possible but less likely than the alternative happening in a single event disproves statistical modeling and therefore also somehow science, well, you're an idiot.
You can't get from "the 30% thing happened in a 30:70 odds situation" to "science is wrong". You just can't. Nate Silver never said Trump couldn't win. He said the opposite, that Trump would win 3 times in 10 according to his model. You just apparently don't know how models work.
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On November 20 2017 09:24 mozoku wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2017 07:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 20 2017 07:09 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:34 Adreme wrote:On November 20 2017 06:21 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:09 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:57 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 05:53 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:50 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 04:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
[quote]
Trump's current* philosophies toward science, civil rights for women and minorities, and social policies are much, much more conservative than Hillary's current philosophies. In fact, the only shared liberal stance I can think of is that they're both fine with gay marriage, even though Trump then went ahead and took the ultra anti-gay Mike Pence as VP runningmate... And with that plus Trump's phobia of anything trans or non-cisgendered, he and his administration are quite clearly not LGBT supporters.
*I say "current" because many of his positions (e.g., abortion) change year to year or even month to month. For example, I don't even know where Trump stands on abortion anymore, and he's accustomed to pandering to everyone so it's hard to pin him down to what he really believes anyway. Half the time, he'll say he believes whatever you want him to believe, if it earns him a little money or power. Lol at your descriptions. Yes, Democratic talking points crafted by Democrats to smear the opposition portray the opposition in a bad light. Holy cow, stop the presses. Science. Now a Democratic talking made to smear Republicans with. Umm Dems have been calling Reps anti-science for a while now. It’s probably just behind the women-and-minorities tripe in frequency. Maybe they wouldn't do so if Republicans didn't keep denying scientific evidence on a regular basis. Climate Change? Clean coal? When was the last time trickle down economics worked? I think there is a tax plan in congress right now where private jets help lower and middle classes. As with so many things Republicans don't like being called. Have you considered not being the thing you don't like being called? The purportedly party of science always tends to shout down the opposition and demand government control and death to industry. Sorry, but America’s energy needs don’t comport with utopian desires for clean energy. I’m not holding my breath for idiotic leftists getting on board with nuclear or other high-power clean energy technology. Dems like their narratives. Science has little tolerance for them. I’ll wait until your policy prescriptions are more science-based and less ideology-based I get that you like to make statements that are nothing more then empty talking points with no basis in reality but you do realize that this administration is the one hiring non-scientists for jobs that used to only go to scientists and trying to purge scientists from various panels. That isnt some debatable point by the way its a thing they are actively doing because there solution when science disagrees with there position is to silence the scientists. I respond to partisan talking points with partisan talking points sometimes. Particularly when the author pretends to be objective. One can very objectively point out that one party (to which they may have a partisan bias independent of the commentary itself) has notably worse policies regarding say, scientific publication, education and application, than the other. That isn't a partisan talking point, that's having a basic grasp of reality. I'm in general agreement that the Democratic party is probably on average more "pro-science", but it's certainly more complicated than an "objective fact." The Democrats are definitely more willing to fund science and like to market themselves as "pro-science", sure. In practice though, the "scientific" left-wing institutions are in a definite rough patch. Academia is in the midst of a replication crisis largely funded by taxpayer dollars (yeah, what a great use of funds...), and these "scientific" election forecasters that all predicted Hillary winning in a landslide obviously aren't really all that "scientific" in practice (there are exceptions of course; I have a lot of respect for Nate Silver's work). Meanwhile, the most economically impactful technology advances atm are coming mostly from barely regulated and not government funded tech firms, whose corporatist mantra is closer to Republican philosophy than Democrat (though ironically, their perceived political allies and enemies are the reverse). There's a large difference between enthusiasm for science and enabling successful science. I'd say the Democrats do well on the first part, but doing good science requires not only enthusiasm and creativity, but discipline and skepticism. It doesn't neatly fit neatly on a left-right scale, and I think it's interesting to consider that that might be a factor in why, historically, scientific success has usually occurred in places where right-left are aligned and working together (e.g. WW2, Cold War, Silicon Valley).
1) The implication that academia is a waste of money due to a replication crisis underscores, at the very least, a massive difference in value systems we may have, if nothing else. The solution here is to address such crises, not throw the baby out with the bathwater (An example of such a problem and real progress to solution: the prevalence of p-hacking, a problem which has now been identified and dissected, and as such peer reviewing colleagues are now much more aware of it.) Note: academic institutions in the US are not going to be able to commit to tackling this problem with their hands tied up with the existential threat of potential republican tax plans.
2) What on Earth does the extremely niche case of election forecasting have to do with this discussion? Are you attempting to at all conflate the democratic party's overall stance on scientific issues with this?
3) Engineering and raw tech are only a single aspect of this issue. The impact that accelerating climate change has, or that poisoning the water sources of communities has, is going to be much much larger for many people than having some shiny new tech. Also lack of progress from government funded science compared to corporate research is very largely due to lack of government funding and prioritization there of.
Also, corporate entities, in no way representing the public, are very much going to tailor research to that which is profitable, or allows them greater power. Developing specific tech to hold more influence, while hiding it behind patent walls, doesn't really advance the game for society at large.
4) With prior attempts at outright destruction of tertiary STEM education by the republican party (the recently floated tax plan), who is even going to be working at these tech firms in 20 years? As a party, the republicans are really doing their best to moot that point, even if one accepts it as you presented it.
5) You seem to have taken an extremely limited view on "enabling successful science", measuring purely in terms of the mere existence of development of technology. The reasons science like that the EPA pursues hasn't been successful (note, this will have a very different measure of success) can be traced back in large part to the actions of the republican party itself.
6) Where in the world does your idea that the republican/American right's (if we are going to conflate like this) approach to science emphasizes discipline and skepticism come from? And I mean actual skepticism, not politically motivated denial.
7) Attributing your examples (WWII, Cold War) of scientific development in any way to right-alignment is... odd. Wartime is when such projects are most heavily subsidized, with the most government involvement. The modern right in the US only cares to adopt such approaches when faced with serious existential crisis. Maybe aspects of that environment are (and this is contentious at best) "right-aligned" as you say, but the broad approach of coordinated government funding and oversight for scientific/technological development is quite literally the opposite there of. It's socialist if anything.
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On November 20 2017 10:09 KwarK wrote:...
You can't get from "the 30% thing happened in a 30:70 odds situation" to "science is wrong". You just can't. Nate Silver never said Trump couldn't win. He said the opposite, that Trump would win 3 times in 10 according to his model. You just apparently don't know how models work.
I'm pretty sure he is talking about other modellers who predicted considerably worse odds and margins for Trump, not Silver.
That being said I don't agree with the underlying argument that the performance of pollsters and pundits says anything meaningful about the state of scientific endeavour as a whole, even if we stipulate that it counts as "scientific" in the first place.
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United States43350 Posts
On November 20 2017 10:30 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2017 10:09 KwarK wrote:...
You can't get from "the 30% thing happened in a 30:70 odds situation" to "science is wrong". You just can't. Nate Silver never said Trump couldn't win. He said the opposite, that Trump would win 3 times in 10 according to his model. You just apparently don't know how models work. I'm pretty sure he is talking about other modellers who predicted considerably worse odds and margins for Trump, not Silver. That being said I don't agree with the underlying argument that the performance of pollsters and pundits says anything meaningful about the state of scientific endeavour as a whole, even if we stipulate that it counts as "scientific" in the first place.
You still can't get from "pollster said it was unlikely" to "science is wrong", when looking at a single event. If there is one thing playing poker taught me it's that unlikely events happen all the fucking time and that in a single hand literally anything can happen.
The only way to adequately test the accuracy of a model for predicting an event is to run the same event over and over and compare the outcomes to the model.
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On November 20 2017 10:35 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2017 10:30 Aquanim wrote:On November 20 2017 10:09 KwarK wrote:...
You can't get from "the 30% thing happened in a 30:70 odds situation" to "science is wrong". You just can't. Nate Silver never said Trump couldn't win. He said the opposite, that Trump would win 3 times in 10 according to his model. You just apparently don't know how models work. I'm pretty sure he is talking about other modellers who predicted considerably worse odds and margins for Trump, not Silver. That being said I don't agree with the underlying argument that the performance of pollsters and pundits says anything meaningful about the state of scientific endeavour as a whole, even if we stipulate that it counts as "scientific" in the first place. You still can't get from "pollster said it was unlikely" to "science is wrong", when looking at a single event. If there is one thing playing poker taught me it's that unlikely events happen all the fucking time and that in a single hand literally anything can happen. The only way to adequately test the accuracy of a model for predicting an event is to run the same event over and over and compare the outcomes to the model.
That's also true. (Although you could make an a priori assessment of the model by looking at its assumptions and mechanisms.)
I would emphasise that you can't even get to "this pollster was wrong", and even if you could get to there you can't get from there to "science is wrong".
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If anything, the Nate Silver versus the world situation shows either a widespread statistical illiteracy, a tendency for doctoring data toward a desired result for political ends, or perhaps both. The fact that Nate was criticized for not being strongly enough in favor of saying that Hillary will win it suggests at least one of those options.
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On November 20 2017 10:09 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2017 09:24 mozoku wrote:On November 20 2017 07:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 20 2017 07:09 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:34 Adreme wrote:On November 20 2017 06:21 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:09 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:57 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 05:53 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:50 Danglars wrote:
[quote]
Lol at your descriptions. Yes, Democratic talking points crafted by Democrats to smear the opposition portray the opposition in a bad light. Holy cow, stop the presses. Science. Now a Democratic talking made to smear Republicans with. Umm Dems have been calling Reps anti-science for a while now. It’s probably just behind the women-and-minorities tripe in frequency. Maybe they wouldn't do so if Republicans didn't keep denying scientific evidence on a regular basis. Climate Change? Clean coal? When was the last time trickle down economics worked? I think there is a tax plan in congress right now where private jets help lower and middle classes. As with so many things Republicans don't like being called. Have you considered not being the thing you don't like being called? The purportedly party of science always tends to shout down the opposition and demand government control and death to industry. Sorry, but America’s energy needs don’t comport with utopian desires for clean energy. I’m not holding my breath for idiotic leftists getting on board with nuclear or other high-power clean energy technology. Dems like their narratives. Science has little tolerance for them. I’ll wait until your policy prescriptions are more science-based and less ideology-based I get that you like to make statements that are nothing more then empty talking points with no basis in reality but you do realize that this administration is the one hiring non-scientists for jobs that used to only go to scientists and trying to purge scientists from various panels. That isnt some debatable point by the way its a thing they are actively doing because there solution when science disagrees with there position is to silence the scientists. I respond to partisan talking points with partisan talking points sometimes. Particularly when the author pretends to be objective. One can very objectively point out that one party (to which they may have a partisan bias independent of the commentary itself) has notably worse policies regarding say, scientific publication, education and application, than the other. That isn't a partisan talking point, that's having a basic grasp of reality. I'm in general agreement that the Democratic party is probably on average more "pro-science", but it's certainly more complicated than an "objective fact." The Democrats are definitely more willing to fund science and like to market themselves as "pro-science", sure. In practice though, the "scientific" left-wing institutions are in a definite rough patch. Academia is in the midst of a replication crisis largely funded by taxpayer dollars (yeah, what a great use of funds...), and these "scientific" election forecasters that all predicted Hillary winning in a landslide obviously aren't really all that "scientific" in practice (there are exceptions of course; I have a lot of respect for Nate Silver's work). Meanwhile, the most economically impactful technology advances atm are coming mostly from barely regulated and not government funded tech firms, whose corporatist mantra is closer to Republican philosophy than Democrat (though ironically, their perceived political allies and enemies are the reverse). There's a large difference between enthusiasm for science and enabling successful science. I'd say the Democrats do well on the first part, but doing good science requires not only enthusiasm and creativity, but discipline and skepticism. It doesn't neatly fit neatly on a left-right scale, and I think it's interesting to consider that that might be a factor in why, historically, scientific success has usually occurred in places where right-left are aligned and working together (e.g. WW2, Cold War, Silicon Valley). If you think that an event that was modeled as being entirely possible but less likely than the alternative happening in a single event disproves statistical modeling and therefore also somehow science, well, you're an idiot. You can't get from "the 30% thing happened in a 30:70 odds situation" to "science is wrong". You just can't. Nate Silver never said Trump couldn't win. He said the opposite, that Trump would win 3 times in 10 according to his model. You just apparently don't know how models work.
You have serious reading comprehension issues.
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On November 20 2017 11:01 mozoku wrote:...
You have serious reading comprehension issues.
Are you going to engage with the actual criticisms made of your position?
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United States43350 Posts
On November 20 2017 11:01 mozoku wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2017 10:09 KwarK wrote:On November 20 2017 09:24 mozoku wrote:On November 20 2017 07:35 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:On November 20 2017 07:09 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:34 Adreme wrote:On November 20 2017 06:21 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 06:09 Gorsameth wrote:On November 20 2017 05:57 Danglars wrote:On November 20 2017 05:53 Gorsameth wrote:
[quote]
Science.
Now a Democratic talking made to smear Republicans with. Umm Dems have been calling Reps anti-science for a while now. It’s probably just behind the women-and-minorities tripe in frequency. Maybe they wouldn't do so if Republicans didn't keep denying scientific evidence on a regular basis. Climate Change? Clean coal? When was the last time trickle down economics worked? I think there is a tax plan in congress right now where private jets help lower and middle classes. As with so many things Republicans don't like being called. Have you considered not being the thing you don't like being called? The purportedly party of science always tends to shout down the opposition and demand government control and death to industry. Sorry, but America’s energy needs don’t comport with utopian desires for clean energy. I’m not holding my breath for idiotic leftists getting on board with nuclear or other high-power clean energy technology. Dems like their narratives. Science has little tolerance for them. I’ll wait until your policy prescriptions are more science-based and less ideology-based I get that you like to make statements that are nothing more then empty talking points with no basis in reality but you do realize that this administration is the one hiring non-scientists for jobs that used to only go to scientists and trying to purge scientists from various panels. That isnt some debatable point by the way its a thing they are actively doing because there solution when science disagrees with there position is to silence the scientists. I respond to partisan talking points with partisan talking points sometimes. Particularly when the author pretends to be objective. One can very objectively point out that one party (to which they may have a partisan bias independent of the commentary itself) has notably worse policies regarding say, scientific publication, education and application, than the other. That isn't a partisan talking point, that's having a basic grasp of reality. I'm in general agreement that the Democratic party is probably on average more "pro-science", but it's certainly more complicated than an "objective fact." The Democrats are definitely more willing to fund science and like to market themselves as "pro-science", sure. In practice though, the "scientific" left-wing institutions are in a definite rough patch. Academia is in the midst of a replication crisis largely funded by taxpayer dollars (yeah, what a great use of funds...), and these "scientific" election forecasters that all predicted Hillary winning in a landslide obviously aren't really all that "scientific" in practice (there are exceptions of course; I have a lot of respect for Nate Silver's work). Meanwhile, the most economically impactful technology advances atm are coming mostly from barely regulated and not government funded tech firms, whose corporatist mantra is closer to Republican philosophy than Democrat (though ironically, their perceived political allies and enemies are the reverse). There's a large difference between enthusiasm for science and enabling successful science. I'd say the Democrats do well on the first part, but doing good science requires not only enthusiasm and creativity, but discipline and skepticism. It doesn't neatly fit neatly on a left-right scale, and I think it's interesting to consider that that might be a factor in why, historically, scientific success has usually occurred in places where right-left are aligned and working together (e.g. WW2, Cold War, Silicon Valley). If you think that an event that was modeled as being entirely possible but less likely than the alternative happening in a single event disproves statistical modeling and therefore also somehow science, well, you're an idiot. You can't get from "the 30% thing happened in a 30:70 odds situation" to "science is wrong". You just can't. Nate Silver never said Trump couldn't win. He said the opposite, that Trump would win 3 times in 10 according to his model. You just apparently don't know how models work. You have serious reading comprehension issues.
You presented the evidence, Trump winning in a single test of the models, as disproof of models that predicted Hillary winning as the most likely result.
The only possible explanation for you doing that is complete ignorance of how models work. If I flop a flush and my opponent flops top pair all the models say I'm the favourite to win. The models aren't wrong when he runner runners a full house, the model said that would happen some of the time.
The only models disproved by a Trump win are the ones that said Trump couldn't possibly win no matter how many times you ran the election. And there were no models that said that to my knowledge.
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United States43350 Posts
On November 20 2017 10:56 LegalLord wrote:
If anything, the Nate Silver versus the world situation shows either a widespread statistical illiteracy, a tendency for doctoring data toward a desired result for political ends, or perhaps both. The fact that Nate was criticized for not being strongly enough in favor of saying that Hillary will win it suggests at least one of those options.
No, it shows nothing. You cannot draw conclusions about the validity of a statistical model from a single datapoint. If Nate says it's 70:30 Hillary favoured and some other guy says it's 999:1 Hillary favoured then you still can't tell which of them was right from a single datapoint. It's entirely possible that Nate was severely overrating Trump's chances AND that Trump won.
Imagine two individuals. One individual says the odds of flipping H three times out of three with a fair coin is 1/8, the other says it's 1/4. They flip the coin three times and it's HHH. If I were to present this as evidence that the 1/4 guy was less wrong you'd disagree.
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A lot of Academy to industrial R&D is kept quiet and behind closed doors in such that they only come out over time with various products. The high "tech" companies tend to be much more high profile and speculative while alot of the "low tech" corporations tend to keep things close to the chest and simply deliver their products year after year. Medical devices and Dairy operation robotics come to mind.
Not to mention there a lot going on in universities that are WAY off from being viable commercially but is really important long term such as Ultra high temperature ceramics (UHTC's) and molecular adjustment of materials to gain new properties (UHMW plastics that have incredible wear resistance and molecularity aligned isotopes being harder then diamonds).
Basically silicon valley tends to be more innovative these years then inventive and that gets a lot of attention. Good luck on explaining why you should be aware about a lack of increased milk production per cow in america as the favored traits go from milk production to uniform utters because of the changeover to robot milking.
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On November 20 2017 11:14 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2017 10:56 LegalLord wrote:
If anything, the Nate Silver versus the world situation shows either a widespread statistical illiteracy, a tendency for doctoring data toward a desired result for political ends, or perhaps both. The fact that Nate was criticized for not being strongly enough in favor of saying that Hillary will win it suggests at least one of those options. No, it shows nothing. You cannot draw conclusions about the validity of a statistical model from a single datapoint. If Nate says it's 70:30 Hillary favoured and some other guy says it's 999:1 Hillary favoured then you still can't tell which of them was right from a single datapoint. It's entirely possible that Nate was severely overrating Trump's chances AND that Trump won.
I think you're overstating this a bit. It's not as though it's impossible to critically evaluate and improve statistical models.
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EPT
