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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
November 13 2016 01:34 GMT
#124281
We may well; you also might not be clear on what my actual point was. I get a vague feeling that might be the case, not that it is of much import.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
ZapRoffo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States5544 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-13 01:37:32
November 13 2016 01:36 GMT
#124282
On November 13 2016 10:25 Sermokala wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 13 2016 10:17 zlefin wrote:
legal -> you are biased. blame can occur on multiple layers for multiple reasons. each have varying degrees of acceptability/justifiability, which also depends on their type.
the case against comey is reasonable and must be considered.
just because she may be less popular is not AT ALL a good reason not to do a case against comey.

The case against comey is a really complex series of events that forced a decision that was lose-lose with either side having huge political effects on the election.

Can you imagine the outrage if the leaks happened as they did and he confirmed them afterwords? That the FBI didn't announce the reopening of an investigation that it had already made public that he had closed?

You could make the argument that he should have never made comments about the investigation from the get go but even then you'll have to imagine a world where the last month of the election had the right argueing about the bill clinton tarmack conversation tainting the FBI investigation into the emails.


By the time the election happened they had already announced they hadn't found anything new--and if there was something they could have reported it then. That would have been the responsible thing.

Google searches for "Clinton emails" peaked (much higher than at any other point where anything of substance was discussed) directly after he released his letter, and it was about absolutely nothing.
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=clinton emails
Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, your opinion man
Introvert
Profile Joined April 2011
United States4921 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-13 01:48:25
November 13 2016 01:44 GMT
#124283
In the closing weeks of the presidential race, Hillary Clinton's campaign — and the outside groups that supported it — aired more television advertisements in Omaha than in the states of Michigan and Wisconsin combined. The Omaha ads were in pursuit of a single electoral vote in a Nebraska congressional district, which Clinton did not ultimately win, and also bled into households in Iowa, which also she did not win. Michigan and Wisconsin add up to 26 electoral votes; she appears not to have won them, either.
Strategic decisions can make all the difference in a close race. Clinton lost the White House (despite winning the popular vote) to Republican Donald Trump on the strength of about 100,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That is the definition of a close race.
But a review of Democrats' advertising decisions at the end of the race suggests Clinton and her allies weren't playing to win a close one. They were playing for a blowout. And it cost them.
Clinton and the groups backing her aired three times as many ads as Trump and his supporters over the course of the general election, according to data from the Wesleyan Media Project. Despite that advantage, the Democrats left several key states essentially unprotected on the airwaves as the race came to a close.


Take a look at the maps too, it will help visualize all this.

www.washingtonpost.com
"But, as the conservative understands it, modification of the rules should always reflect, and never impose, a change in the activities and beliefs of those who are subject to them, and should never on any occasion be so great as to destroy the ensemble."
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14104 Posts
November 13 2016 01:46 GMT
#124284
On November 13 2016 10:36 ZapRoffo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 13 2016 10:25 Sermokala wrote:
On November 13 2016 10:17 zlefin wrote:
legal -> you are biased. blame can occur on multiple layers for multiple reasons. each have varying degrees of acceptability/justifiability, which also depends on their type.
the case against comey is reasonable and must be considered.
just because she may be less popular is not AT ALL a good reason not to do a case against comey.

The case against comey is a really complex series of events that forced a decision that was lose-lose with either side having huge political effects on the election.

Can you imagine the outrage if the leaks happened as they did and he confirmed them afterwords? That the FBI didn't announce the reopening of an investigation that it had already made public that he had closed?

You could make the argument that he should have never made comments about the investigation from the get go but even then you'll have to imagine a world where the last month of the election had the right argueing about the bill clinton tarmack conversation tainting the FBI investigation into the emails.


By the time the election happened they had already announced they hadn't found anything new--and if there was something they could have reported it then. That would have been the responsible thing.

Google searches for "Clinton emails" peaked (much higher than at any other point where anything of substance was discussed) directly after he released his letter, and it was about absolutely nothing.
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=clinton emails

Now I'm talking about the first letter about how they were reopening the investigation because they found the Anthony weiner emails on his phone that his wife was related to Hillary business. The second letter or announcement that they had found nothing came three days before the election when early voting happened.

The point is that he publicly already said that the investigation was closed and that he recommended no charges. now that new evidence had come in October that he was forced to review he had to make a choice to publicly announce that he had to reopen the investigation and possibly (but I'm not really going to ) change that recommendation. then he was able to later say "no really there was nothing there but a ton more emails then before nothing changes we found nothing new".

Beacuse I don't understand what you're saying.


A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
November 13 2016 01:49 GMT
#124285
Regardless of how you feel about Comey reopening the case, do we all more or less have a consensus that Congressional Democrats handled this really poorly and Harry Reid's letter was in really poor taste that did little more than to create bad blood?
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
November 13 2016 01:54 GMT
#124286
On November 13 2016 10:49 LegalLord wrote:
Regardless of how you feel about Comey reopening the case, do we all more or less have a consensus that Congressional Democrats handled this really poorly and Harry Reid's letter was in really poor taste that did little more than to create bad blood?

I don't remember exactly what congressional democrats did at the time, so it'd depend on which ones and what exactly each one did. I agree reid's letter was in really poor taste and was improper.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Ropid
Profile Joined March 2009
Germany3557 Posts
November 13 2016 02:08 GMT
#124287
This guy here says he has the results that the Supreme Court will announce on November 15. He has the popular vote result flipped with Clinton losing the popular vote:

https://twitter.com/russeurope

I can't find out if it is real. Do the civil servants really sit on data like this for two days before announcing it? That seems fishy. But if this is real it would hopefully calm people down.

(btw: if you see something about "fox news are retards" in the comment threads somewhere, in French it means "late", not retard)
"My goal is to replace my soul with coffee and become immortal."
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
November 13 2016 02:09 GMT
#124288
On November 13 2016 10:17 zlefin wrote:
danglars -> don't describe "the thread" as a whole, the thread has many people of many different views, ascribing some view to "the thread" in general doesn't make sense, given how you are a part of "the thread" as well, and clearly are more pro-trump.

Yes, mother. I grasp your offense, but think you should lay off the condescending speech to give a chance for opinions you dislike to flourish. This thread has a preponderance of evidence that LL's fixes for Dems moving forward will strike against opposition. Now, if you want to make the argument that the D's will have an easier time of it than I'm making out, please make a substantive response about the demonization of Trump/his supporters that still persists. It is a very sensitive topic that people are protesting in the streets right now. I'd rather hear alternate takes on the situation and for everyone to hear each other out.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
November 13 2016 02:12 GMT
#124289
well, the supreme court doesn't announce anything, as this isn't under their purview, and I don't think any relevant cases are before them.

i'd say just ignore him. if it's true it'll come out from better sources.
sometimes various issues slow down the processing of results (mechanical breakdowns or such, sometimes the vote counting machines break and they have to be hand-counted).
if they had the data in all in proper form they'd announce it. but sometimes there's appeals or checks they have to do first.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
November 13 2016 02:13 GMT
#124290
On November 13 2016 10:49 LegalLord wrote:
Regardless of how you feel about Comey reopening the case, do we all more or less have a consensus that Congressional Democrats handled this really poorly and Harry Reid's letter was in really poor taste that did little more than to create bad blood?

Reid went in the wrong direction. This is a big opportunity for someone of opposite persuasion to lead the Democrat party to reconciliation. Sanders had the start of it, committing to working with Trump in areas of agreement, even though he ended it in some cheap smacks. Anybody that can strike a middle path has the opportunity to pull together the shattered factions in the House & Senate minorities.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
November 13 2016 02:15 GMT
#124291
On November 13 2016 11:09 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 13 2016 10:17 zlefin wrote:
danglars -> don't describe "the thread" as a whole, the thread has many people of many different views, ascribing some view to "the thread" in general doesn't make sense, given how you are a part of "the thread" as well, and clearly are more pro-trump.

Yes, mother. I grasp your offense, but think you should lay off the condescending speech to give a chance for opinions you dislike to flourish. This thread has a preponderance of evidence that LL's fixes for Dems moving forward will strike against opposition. Now, if you want to make the argument that the D's will have an easier time of it than I'm making out, please make a substantive response about the demonization of Trump/his supporters that still persists. It is a very sensitive topic that people are protesting in the streets right now. I'd rather hear alternate takes on the situation and for everyone to hear each other out.

it's not condescending to request that people not categorize the entire thread as being one way and of one mind.
your other statements are irrelevant to the point I was taking on.
nothing I said there inhibits or discourages alternate opinions AT ALL. so please read more carefully before responding.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
RealityIsKing
Profile Joined August 2016
613 Posts
November 13 2016 02:19 GMT
#124292
Honestly, the probability that DNC will even win the next election is on the low side.

The media outlets they've bedded themselves w/ are still calling Trump supporters name and still fabricating lies.

The DNC must cut off all ties with the media they've bedded with in order to regain any credibility.

When Obama became president, instead of being happy about it or be nicer to others, the DNC went on as hard as ever with identity politics.

The DNC now have to face the fact that people are just simply tired about it.
Wegandi
Profile Joined March 2011
United States2455 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-11-13 03:32:07
November 13 2016 03:30 GMT
#124293
On November 13 2016 09:19 LegalLord wrote:
It'd be interesting to study to what extent protectionism does and doesn't hurt the development of an economy. Selective protectionism can indeed work for allowing an industry to develop the means to become competitive. Yet at this point the discussion is mostly in terms of broad platitudes, and I'm not whitedoge enough to be interested in getting bogged down in that line of debate.

You're right, though, that I am basically advocating some degree of protectionism at the core of my strategy. And while it is true that protectionism can be harmful, it doesn't have to be. Not if it's done right.

Show nested quote +
On November 13 2016 09:17 On_Slaught wrote:
On November 13 2016 08:38 LegalLord wrote:
On November 13 2016 08:25 On_Slaught wrote:
On November 13 2016 08:09 hunts wrote:
On November 13 2016 07:59 Blisse wrote:
https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class

What So Many People Don’t Get About the U.S. Working Class

-snip-

Understand That Working Class Means Middle Class, Not Poor

The terminology here can be confusing. When progressives talk about the working class, typically they mean the poor. But the poor, in the bottom 30% of American families, are very different from Americans who are literally in the middle: the middle 50% of families whose median income was $64,000 in 2008. That is the true “middle class,” and they call themselves either “middle class” or “working class.”

“The thing that really gets me is that Democrats try to offer policies (paid sick leave! minimum wage!) that would help the working class,” a friend just wrote me. A few days’ paid leave ain’t gonna support a family. Neither is minimum wage. WWC men aren’t interested in working at McDonald’s for $15 per hour instead of $9.50. What they want is what my father-in-law had: steady, stable, full-time jobs that deliver a solid middle-class life to the 75% of Americans who don’t have a college degree. Trump promises that. I doubt he’ll deliver, but at least he understands what they need.

Understand Working-Class Resentment of the Poor

Remember when President Obama sold Obamacare by pointing out that it delivered health care to 20 million people? Just another program that taxed the middle class to help the poor, said the WWC, and in some cases that’s proved true: The poor got health insurance while some Americans just a notch richer saw their premiums rise.

Progressives have lavished attention on the poor for over a century. That (combined with other factors) led to social programs targeting them. Means-tested programs that help the poor but exclude the middle may keep costs and tax rates lower, but they are a recipe for class conflict. Example: 28.3% of poor families receive child-care subsidies, which are largely nonexistent for the middle class. So my sister-in-law worked full-time for Head Start, providing free child care for poor women while earning so little that she almost couldn’t pay for her own. She resented this, especially the fact that some of the kids’ moms did not work. One arrived late one day to pick up her child, carrying shopping bags from Macy’s. My sister-in-law was livid.

-snip-

Understand How Class Divisions Have Translated into Geography

The best advice I’ve seen so far for Democrats is the recommendation that hipsters move to Iowa. Class conflict now closely tracks the urban-rural divide. In the huge red plains between the thin blue coasts, shockingly high numbers of working-class men are unemployed or on disability, fueling a wave of despair deaths in the form of the opioid epidemic.

Vast rural areas are withering away, leaving trails of pain. When did you hear any American politician talk about that? Never.

-snip-


Found an opinion piece that I really enjoyed.


so those people want high paying jobs that don't require any degree or knowledge or intelligence. Do they not realize those jobs will never exist again? No matter what they are promised, no one will ever pay $20 an hour for someone to stand at a line and work in a factory, when we can just have those jobs be automated and only have to pay for the machinery and energy.


Pretty much this. The vast majority of jobs that were lost are not coming back. They are either jobs that Americans refuse to do, are obsolete, or are jobs replaced by the microchip not Mexico. This is why the platform of bringing jobs back is one that Trump is almost bound to fail on which will piss off a large majority of the people that voted for him. This will be especially true for people thinking that coal is coming back or those car factories in places like Detroit.

You say "the jobs are not coming back" and that may be true - but what happens next? The answers do exist, but there's not a single one that doesn't involve some obscenely expensive infrastructure expansions across the entire nation, and some very painful and not very pleasant coercive measures that force companies inward towards those forgotten "inner cities" to build new businesses. Earlier I gave an example of Soviet/Russian development and how it took painful sanctions to get businesses and legislators to start to consider how they would take internal expansion seriously and what needs to be done to clear the way for that. This is far from the only historical precedent for sanctions forcing a nation to develop its own industry - the US had the same issue 200 years ago with the French-British conflicts and its decision to sanction both of them.

Solutions exist but they basically go against the tide of every economic force that would exist in a vacuum. Politically this can be a truly unpalatable exercise that turns into a no-win scenario.


No doubt you're right that there is a (painful) solution out there. I was merely commenting on his campaign promise which, while politically expedite, will most surely bite him in the end.

It's the same promise everyone makes, from Obama to Romney to McCain to everyone else. It's much easier to pay lip service to the idea of reviving the rural communities than to commit to a truly massive structural reorganization of the economy. But it is possible to make a policy that would help them. Usually you need a war to get that to happen though. And not a bad war like Iraq that just makes everyone poorer, a good war like WWII that puts people to work.


You can put people to work digging ditchs and filling them back in which is more productive than war. Oh, yeah, the infamous WWII was great for the economy spiel. Do people actually have any idea how people lived during WWII? You'd be appalled at rationing, price controls, etc. for almost every good (never mind the millions that died that is a necessity of war). Can only have 1/4 lb of meat a week. A gallon of milk a month. All of the goods that improve our lives - well, no more of them because we need to re-purpose the factories to build bombs and mechanized weaponry which have negative usefulness past the bare minimum of security. But jobs! War Command Economy is about the worst thing you can do to a people for their standard of living.
Thank you bureaucrats for all your hard work, your commitment to public service and public good is essential to the lives of so many. Also, for Pete's sake can we please get some gun control already, no need for hand guns and assault rifles for the public
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
November 13 2016 03:32 GMT
#124294
Looking back at federal elections in the US I'm not really sure there's some inherent logic to the elections. It just seems to be eight year cycles until the next party takes over no matter what's going on in the real world. I really think the Dems should focus on the states that they have solid majorities in and invent some liberal version of state's rights while trying to obstruct at the federal level. I don't really know about identity politics, the Republican campaign was just as heavily influenced by their own version of it, they just call it 'real America'. and rant against NY values. That seemed to do the trick.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
November 13 2016 03:43 GMT
#124295
US elections certainly have their own charm, that's for sure. The FPTP system gives them a character that is far different from what Europe has.

Very cyclical, yes, but the parties also change over time. Trump Republicans are pretty far removed from Bush Republicans in character.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
November 13 2016 03:59 GMT
#124296
Trump Republicans are very populist in nature. You had to have felt this movement 6 years ago when Obama with a friendly Congress bailed out Wall Street.

I'm not sure if Trump can even deliver on his populist promises but he captured that movement and rode it to victory. Like if we do his whole tax cut thing, it will destroy the budget. But if we impose a tariff, I suppose a revenue tariff might help get some money for the federal government.

Interesting times we live in for sure.
Moderator我们是个踏实的赞助商模式俱乐部
Introvert
Profile Joined April 2011
United States4921 Posts
November 13 2016 03:59 GMT
#124297
On November 13 2016 12:32 Nyxisto wrote:
Looking back at federal elections in the US I'm not really sure there's some inherent logic to the elections. It just seems to be eight year cycles until the next party takes over no matter what's going on in the real world. I really think the Dems should focus on the states that they have solid majorities in and invent some liberal version of state's rights while trying to obstruct at the federal level. I don't really know about identity politics, the Republican campaign was just as heavily influenced by their own version of it, they just call it 'real America'. and rant against NY values. That seemed to do the trick.


I would love it for blue states to rediscover federalism or separation of powers.

Some CA legislators are already talking about it, though not int hose terms exactly.
"But, as the conservative understands it, modification of the rules should always reflect, and never impose, a change in the activities and beliefs of those who are subject to them, and should never on any occasion be so great as to destroy the ensemble."
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
November 13 2016 04:12 GMT
#124298
I can't help but feel bad for Chris Christie. He really went to bat for Trump back when his victory was far from certain. But because he was caught in some stupid corruption he lost the chance to be VP, and lost his position as transition leader. Now he'll be lucky to get a job as presidential shoe shiner.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23733 Posts
November 13 2016 04:16 GMT
#124299
On November 13 2016 10:49 LegalLord wrote:
Regardless of how you feel about Comey reopening the case, do we all more or less have a consensus that Congressional Democrats handled this really poorly and Harry Reid's letter was in really poor taste that did little more than to create bad blood?

Yes, they blew the whole thing. Going all the way back to claiming the emails were nothing (even if there was nothing to come of it, it wasn't nothing, Hillary supporters are screaming from the rafters that the emails are what sunk her, it's tangential whatever Comey did. If Democrats said, "No your extremely careless handling of secure materials, your mistake in setting it up in the first place, and your repeated lies about it mean we're not going to back you", instead of "nothing to see here folks, move along" we likely wouldn't be in this mess.

Reid's letter was one of his last gasps for a completely irrelevant politician.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14104 Posts
November 13 2016 04:24 GMT
#124300
On November 13 2016 13:12 LegalLord wrote:
I can't help but feel bad for Chris Christie. He really went to bat for Trump back when his victory was far from certain. But because he was caught in some stupid corruption he lost the chance to be VP, and lost his position as transition leader. Now he'll be lucky to get a job as presidential shoe shiner.

I don't know if I can feel bad for the guy if he really did have that bridge clogged up like he did.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
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