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On November 09 2016 20:24 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2016 20:18 Blisse wrote:On November 09 2016 19:56 Miragee wrote:On November 09 2016 19:46 a_flayer wrote:On November 09 2016 19:44 StarStruck wrote:On November 09 2016 18:40 CorsairHero wrote:On November 09 2016 18:30 Orcasgt24 wrote: Well the world just got alot less predictable...
As a Canadian, I hop his stance on NAFTA is swayed or in some way impossible because if that gets axed....we are in trouble. Good thing we have a trade agreement with the EU now Looks pretty darn good now considering if Trump undoes a lot of things the States is going to have a lot of major setbacks.When you make the primary focus about attacking someone else it usually loses you an election more often than not. It's odd because Trump was throwing and slinging just as much mud and it wasn't just against Clinton. His mudslinging regarding the polls was apparently correct. The fact that he praised them when they showed him on the rise slightly means very little, as they were still relatively inaccurate compared to the actual results despite the slight sway in his favour. Those polls and the whole statistic behind it is utter nonsense. Asking 500 people for something so reliant on more than just demograhic, which alone is very complex already, to create "accurate" statistics for millions of people is a pretty retarded idea. I really don't understand why so much attention is payed to the polls. They only show large movements but they aren't even remotely accurate when it comes to exact calls. Again, that's how modelling and statistics work. Ignoring the news outlets who do this stuff with no formal math background, but pollsters are highly aware that biases and blindsides exist. That's why all models are created with ranges in mind, where you account for the likelihood of biases and blind spots. For large, important, non-repeatable events like elections, there can be completely new blind spots, like Trump supporters underrepresenting their support because they're shamed for it. This data destroys the ranges devised by the current model, but helps the next time by calculating whether the situation is similar and expanding or contracting that range calculation. Imagine a model of the weather 30 years ago, and then we find out that the ozone layer is deteriorating and we have to reevaluate the model. And then we realized the polar ice caps melted which messed with El Niño and we have to reevaluate the model. And so on and so on. It's like science experiments. Well-done polling for repeatable, low variance events can be accurate but it's not like it's an exact science, so like all pollsters will tell you, trust only the final poll. Blame media outlets for copping out and reporting on polls instead of having reporters investigate real stories. In fairness, there's been a succession of polls falling to the same pitfall in the past year. In the UK we had Conservatives very significantly underrepresented in generation election polling, and then Brexit voters significantly underrepresented in the EU referendum polls. Huffington Post was touting a 98% chance for Hillary to win before the results started coming in. That is insane to me, given that she was leading by 4 points - the same polling margin as Remain in the EU referendum - in somewhat similar circumstances to the EU referendum. Precedents have been completely dismissed. Modifications to methodologies have been designed, but I guess most pollsters considered them too new or untested to be used for such a significant event. I fail to see the problem. Her RCP average lead this past week was hovering between 2 and 3%. And she is projected to win the popular vote by slightly over 1%. Margin of error for the difference between two candidates is 5 to 7%.
Polls being wrong by 2% or so on average is pretty damn accurate. Wisconsin is the one place where you can say pollsters failed.
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So many salty tears from my facebook feed it's hilarious
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Congratulations to everyone who did believe in trumps chances from the start,you where right all along The salt is real,as expected.
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On November 09 2016 20:21 a_flayer wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2016 20:10 Gorsameth wrote: Fighting climate change, gone
LGBT rights, gone
I wonder if the Republicans will have the guts to actually remove the ACA since there is no replacement.
Say goodbye to all the progress the US made in the past decades.
Guess Idiocracy was right.
American, you done fucked up. Trump has always supported LGBT rights as far as I know. Climate change is potentially a big loss, but I think change in this inevitable, regardless of policy It makes undeniable economic sense on every level, so businesses will eventually adjust, it will just take longer. This is not the end of the world at all. I just hope Europe take this as the wake-up call that it ought to be. We need to remain united and make sure we develop our own continent in the image that we see is best for the world. Something away from Americanism. Something that can stand alone if need be. We cannot count on the Americans. Look at what they did.
On November 09 2016 20:23 TheTenthDoc wrote: If the judges Trump appoints to SCOTUS are going to overturn Roe v Wade (and he said they would) they're going to overturn rulings in favor of LGBT.
Yeah, that whole SCOTUS thing is definitely a legitimate concern. Was that stuff with Obama appointing his judge resolved or is that still on the table?
But, ultimately, if that's the direction that the US wants to take it, that's fine. It's their country. If you don't like, you are welcome in the land of the free over here. We're not likely gonna change on those issues in the Netherlands. It'll be a bit crowded if you all come over at once though. We really need to figure out some more efficient agriculture stuff.
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How is the popular vote going? Someone (Nevuk I think) said that the south had outsized influence in the electoral college. Also, I am scared for our planet and the Paris deals.
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On November 09 2016 20:27 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2016 20:20 Simberto wrote:On November 09 2016 20:10 Gorsameth wrote: Fighting climate change, gone
LGBT rights, gone
I wonder if the Republicans will have the guts to actually remove the ACA since there is no replacement.
Say goodbye to all the progress the US made in the past decades.
Guess Idiocracy was right.
American, you done fucked up. Yeah, i have to say, i simply can not explain this election result. It just makes no sense. Why would anyone vote for someone like trump is beyond me. I would vote for a literal stone over that guy. Does this mean that US politics is now completely unhinged from reality? Apparently it does not matter what is actually going on, the only thing relevant is what you claim. You can lie however much you want and still get elected president. And lets not even start about Pence. Pence is just disgusting. That man manages to demonstrate that he has no idea how science works, and still despises it in just 5 minutes of talking about evolution. And gay conversion camps... It is just so unimaginably insane to vote these people into a position of power, and actually give those people more power than Obama had. They can actually make laws, because they somehow control both houses of the US legislation, and they can not have those laws challenged because they control the supreme court, because the republicans were so incredibly dickish to just keep a slot in there open for a year just in case they won the election. This alone should have lost them the election. But for some reason it didn't. I agree that the US electoral system is horrifyingly stupid, but still, even with that horrible system you should have been able to elect someone less insane than trump. Elect a log of wood. It's still better than Trump. I just hope that he only fucks up your country, and doesn't manage to drag the EU down with him somehow. Having an economy of the size like the US go bad is bad for everyone. Besides, I don't want any people to suffer. But I agree, why vote for such a disgusting man, or why even vote for the political right even? If anything the US needed a yank.. to the left.
Oh i agree, it would be even better if he also doesn't fuck up the US.
Sadly, with everything i have heard so far, i do not think that that will happen. The US will probably not explode or anything, but it will be significantly worse after a Trump presidency than before. That is just something i see as sadly unavoidable after this result. I just hope that the rest of the world will not also be worse. Because we did not vote for this insanity.
But i also never understood how the republican party gets elected in the first place, even without trump. Their positions on evolution, healthcare, religion, climate change, economics, abortion and pretty much anything they ever talk about are just simply the direct opposite of what i believe is correct, and even far away from anything i can reasonably imagine a person supporting. So i guess voting for the worst person i can imagine in office is a logical conclusion to that?
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On November 09 2016 20:29 NukeD wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2016 19:49 Penev wrote:On November 09 2016 19:48 NukeD wrote:On November 09 2016 19:44 Penev wrote:On November 09 2016 19:42 NukeD wrote:On November 09 2016 19:36 Penev wrote:On November 09 2016 19:35 NukeD wrote: No, this is a glorious day. This is a much needed wake up call. explain Nah sry i wont explain myself. You made us pro Trumpers explain ourselves to death in this thread, while dismissing everything we said with witty remarks and disgust. Well now the tables have turned so please do explain why you think this is a bad thing. I did no such thing, I didn't post in this thread before this day now pls explain You are welcome to read trough my posts in this thread. Or, you know, you could just be nice and answer a question Ah ok, here is a video that sums up my opinion: + Show Spoiler + Like I said earlier, I understand a vote against the establishment but you can't do that if the alternative is worse.
I think he's wrong by the way; Electing Trump has opened a door. Now things like this are possible and because things will not be as bad as some say (but it still be worse than it is now) people get used to it. Trump stays for a second term. I can't believe Žižek said that btw..
But I take it you agree Trump is a disgusting individual then?
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On November 09 2016 20:31 shell wrote: I'm 33 year old European Portuguese and i can honestly say that this is probably the worst thing that happened in my life time..
This guy will make the world a worse place, it will be bad for the world but americans will regret this more.
Hillary was not a good candidate, Bernie was better but Trump?
A guy that makes politics with "it's going to be great", "i'm going to make it better!" .. It's like a daft punk music "better, stronger, faster" .. he's got nothing to say
You seriously consider the mere election of Trump to be worse than genocides, pandemics, famines, and wars?
Safe to say that many of us are apprehensive about what kind of president Trump will turn out to be, but how about we keep a little perspective here.
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On November 09 2016 20:37 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2016 20:27 Penev wrote:On November 09 2016 20:20 Simberto wrote:On November 09 2016 20:10 Gorsameth wrote: Fighting climate change, gone
LGBT rights, gone
I wonder if the Republicans will have the guts to actually remove the ACA since there is no replacement.
Say goodbye to all the progress the US made in the past decades.
Guess Idiocracy was right.
American, you done fucked up. Yeah, i have to say, i simply can not explain this election result. It just makes no sense. Why would anyone vote for someone like trump is beyond me. I would vote for a literal stone over that guy. Does this mean that US politics is now completely unhinged from reality? Apparently it does not matter what is actually going on, the only thing relevant is what you claim. You can lie however much you want and still get elected president. And lets not even start about Pence. Pence is just disgusting. That man manages to demonstrate that he has no idea how science works, and still despises it in just 5 minutes of talking about evolution. And gay conversion camps... It is just so unimaginably insane to vote these people into a position of power, and actually give those people more power than Obama had. They can actually make laws, because they somehow control both houses of the US legislation, and they can not have those laws challenged because they control the supreme court, because the republicans were so incredibly dickish to just keep a slot in there open for a year just in case they won the election. This alone should have lost them the election. But for some reason it didn't. I agree that the US electoral system is horrifyingly stupid, but still, even with that horrible system you should have been able to elect someone less insane than trump. Elect a log of wood. It's still better than Trump. I just hope that he only fucks up your country, and doesn't manage to drag the EU down with him somehow. Having an economy of the size like the US go bad is bad for everyone. Besides, I don't want any people to suffer. But I agree, why vote for such a disgusting man, or why even vote for the political right even? If anything the US needed a yank.. to the left. Oh i agree, it would be even better if he also doesn't fuck up the US. Sadly, with everything i have heard so far, i do not think that that will happen. The US will probably not explode or anything, but it will be significantly worse after a Trump presidency than before. That is just something i see as sadly unavoidable after this result. I just hope that the rest of the world will not also be worse. Because we did not vote for this insanity. But i also never understood how the republican party gets elected in the first place, even without trump. Their positions on evolution, healthcare, religion, climate change, economics, abortion and pretty much anything they ever talk about are just simply the direct opposite of what i believe is correct, and even far away from anything i can reasonably imagine a person supporting. So i guess voting for the worst person i can imagine in office is a logical conclusion to that? Socially the US is a century behind Europe. That's why we cant imagine someone like Trump being elected. Its like looking back in time at the 1800's / early 1900's.
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On November 09 2016 20:36 Howie_Dewitt wrote: How is the popular vote going? Someone (Nevuk I think) said that the south had outsized influence in the electoral college. Also, I am scared for our planet and the Paris deals. According to Bloomberg Clinton 58,879,610 votes and Trump 58,844,024 votes. Looks like Clinton will win the popular vote since California and some other Democratic states aren't done yet while most Republican states are done or nearly done.
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-election-results/
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I wonder what a Trump administration will do about marijuana. All these ballot measures are pointless if he actually enforces federal law (and there's no way it's changing with a conservative Congress).
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On November 09 2016 20:31 shell wrote: I'm 33 year old European Portuguese and i can honestly say that this is probably the worst thing that happened in my life time..
This guy will make the world a worse place, it will be bad for the world but americans will regret this more.
Hillary was not a good candidate, Bernie was better but Trump?
A guy that makes politics with "it's going to be great", "i'm going to make it better!" .. It's like a daft punk music "better, stronger, faster" .. he's got nothing to say
Let's wait and see. Trump can't possibly do the things he has been talking about. And if he actually does, it could turn out amazing for Europe. Apple setting up HQ in Europe, OPEC killing the oil price to kill American fracking and both, America and Russia crumbling under that pressure. Strong immigration laws making it easier for EU to hold our own elites. America becoming less significant in the world giving the euro even more importance. Financial uncertainty weakening wall street and strengthening European stock markets.
A weak US could be a massive chance for Europe, if we can keep our shit together.
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On November 09 2016 20:36 a_flayer wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2016 20:21 a_flayer wrote:On November 09 2016 20:10 Gorsameth wrote: Fighting climate change, gone
LGBT rights, gone
I wonder if the Republicans will have the guts to actually remove the ACA since there is no replacement.
Say goodbye to all the progress the US made in the past decades.
Guess Idiocracy was right.
American, you done fucked up. Trump has always supported LGBT rights as far as I know. Climate change is potentially a big loss, but I think change in this inevitable, regardless of policy It makes undeniable economic sense on every level, so businesses will eventually adjust, it will just take longer. This is not the end of the world at all. I just hope Europe take this as the wake-up call that it ought to be. We need to remain united and make sure we develop our own continent in the image that we see is best for the world. Something away from Americanism. Something that can stand alone if need be. We cannot count on the Americans. Look at what they did. Show nested quote +On November 09 2016 20:23 TheTenthDoc wrote: If the judges Trump appoints to SCOTUS are going to overturn Roe v Wade (and he said they would) they're going to overturn rulings in favor of LGBT. Yeah, that whole SCOTUS thing is definitely a legitimate concern. Was that stuff with Obama appointing his judge resolved or is that still on the table? But, ultimately, if that's the direction that the US wants to take it, that's fine. It's their country. If you don't like, you are welcome in the land of the free over here. We're not likely gonna change on those issues in the Netherlands. It'll be a bit crowded if you all come over at once though. We really need to figure out some more efficient agriculture stuff. It was not resolved, the republican blocked Obama's nominee, they even said they were ready to block Hillary's nominee if she was to win, saying that the court ran well in the past with only 8 judges...
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I really fear for the World.
Not for Trump. This guy will soon join the garbage of history. But for what it means for us all. Be it when it comes to ecology or the way refugees are peirceved.
It's obvious now, since it's already too late and we aren't planning on changing much, that we're going toward a planet disaster. It's going to heavily change the world, and will force many people to move because they won't have a land to live on, or the means to feed themselves in drastically harder situations. And there is going to be a time when they will have to move. We already have ecologic refugees, and their number will rise.
So we are at a time where we need to adapt our societies to the fact that people will want to come. It is the time to think and change this, or we'll get used to leaving people to die beyond our walls. And I fear that this is what humanity will come to.
I'm not saying that Clinton was really better, but she wouldn't have prevented green progress like Trump said he will.
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On November 09 2016 20:34 ForTehDarkseid wrote: Politics is all about chosing only what you like and what you feel and believe.
You can't say that nearly half of USA citizens are out of their mind. You just can't stand them and that would be actually an acurrate representation of the reality. Didn't eveyone know it before?
Honest question, why couldn't nearly half of the USA be out of their minds?
Why is that so hard to imagine?
Being out of ones mind in this case refers to the fact that Trump focus more on things he hates, people he want to see in jail, walls he wants to build among other things and there are people cheering for that. Nearly half of USA.
That is scary.
I'm not saying that Clinton is a saint and should have won but never in my life have I heard a person being so hateful, angry and down right wrong in so many areas but yet get so much support. So sorry for not understanding why it's not possible for half of the US citizens be out of their minds.
Why wouldn't people instead of voting for Trump or Clinton vote for someone else if they think the candidates are so bad?
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On November 09 2016 20:34 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2016 20:24 bardtown wrote:On November 09 2016 20:18 Blisse wrote:On November 09 2016 19:56 Miragee wrote:On November 09 2016 19:46 a_flayer wrote:On November 09 2016 19:44 StarStruck wrote:On November 09 2016 18:40 CorsairHero wrote:On November 09 2016 18:30 Orcasgt24 wrote: Well the world just got alot less predictable...
As a Canadian, I hop his stance on NAFTA is swayed or in some way impossible because if that gets axed....we are in trouble. Good thing we have a trade agreement with the EU now Looks pretty darn good now considering if Trump undoes a lot of things the States is going to have a lot of major setbacks.When you make the primary focus about attacking someone else it usually loses you an election more often than not. It's odd because Trump was throwing and slinging just as much mud and it wasn't just against Clinton. His mudslinging regarding the polls was apparently correct. The fact that he praised them when they showed him on the rise slightly means very little, as they were still relatively inaccurate compared to the actual results despite the slight sway in his favour. Those polls and the whole statistic behind it is utter nonsense. Asking 500 people for something so reliant on more than just demograhic, which alone is very complex already, to create "accurate" statistics for millions of people is a pretty retarded idea. I really don't understand why so much attention is payed to the polls. They only show large movements but they aren't even remotely accurate when it comes to exact calls. Again, that's how modelling and statistics work. Ignoring the news outlets who do this stuff with no formal math background, but pollsters are highly aware that biases and blindsides exist. That's why all models are created with ranges in mind, where you account for the likelihood of biases and blind spots. For large, important, non-repeatable events like elections, there can be completely new blind spots, like Trump supporters underrepresenting their support because they're shamed for it. This data destroys the ranges devised by the current model, but helps the next time by calculating whether the situation is similar and expanding or contracting that range calculation. Imagine a model of the weather 30 years ago, and then we find out that the ozone layer is deteriorating and we have to reevaluate the model. And then we realized the polar ice caps melted which messed with El Niño and we have to reevaluate the model. And so on and so on. It's like science experiments. Well-done polling for repeatable, low variance events can be accurate but it's not like it's an exact science, so like all pollsters will tell you, trust only the final poll. Blame media outlets for copping out and reporting on polls instead of having reporters investigate real stories. In fairness, there's been a succession of polls falling to the same pitfall in the past year. In the UK we had Conservatives very significantly underrepresented in generation election polling, and then Brexit voters significantly underrepresented in the EU referendum polls. Huffington Post was touting a 98% chance for Hillary to win before the results started coming in. That is insane to me, given that she was leading by 4 points - the same polling margin as Remain in the EU referendum - in somewhat similar circumstances to the EU referendum. Precedents have been completely dismissed. Modifications to methodologies have been designed, but I guess most pollsters considered them too new or untested to be used for such a significant event. I fail to see the problem. Her RCP average lead this past week was hovering between 2 and 3%. And she is projected to win the popular vote by slightly over 1%. Margin of error for the difference between two candidates is 5 to 7%. Polls being wrong by 2% or so on average is pretty damn accurate. Wisconsin is the one place where you can say pollsters failed.
The point is that they are consistently wrong because they are failing to take into account effects that have been observed in similar votes as recently as a few months ago. And then that the media somehow go from a margin of error lead to a 98% chance of victory.
On November 09 2016 20:41 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2016 20:37 Simberto wrote:On November 09 2016 20:27 Penev wrote:On November 09 2016 20:20 Simberto wrote:On November 09 2016 20:10 Gorsameth wrote: Fighting climate change, gone
LGBT rights, gone
I wonder if the Republicans will have the guts to actually remove the ACA since there is no replacement.
Say goodbye to all the progress the US made in the past decades.
Guess Idiocracy was right.
American, you done fucked up. Yeah, i have to say, i simply can not explain this election result. It just makes no sense. Why would anyone vote for someone like trump is beyond me. I would vote for a literal stone over that guy. Does this mean that US politics is now completely unhinged from reality? Apparently it does not matter what is actually going on, the only thing relevant is what you claim. You can lie however much you want and still get elected president. And lets not even start about Pence. Pence is just disgusting. That man manages to demonstrate that he has no idea how science works, and still despises it in just 5 minutes of talking about evolution. And gay conversion camps... It is just so unimaginably insane to vote these people into a position of power, and actually give those people more power than Obama had. They can actually make laws, because they somehow control both houses of the US legislation, and they can not have those laws challenged because they control the supreme court, because the republicans were so incredibly dickish to just keep a slot in there open for a year just in case they won the election. This alone should have lost them the election. But for some reason it didn't. I agree that the US electoral system is horrifyingly stupid, but still, even with that horrible system you should have been able to elect someone less insane than trump. Elect a log of wood. It's still better than Trump. I just hope that he only fucks up your country, and doesn't manage to drag the EU down with him somehow. Having an economy of the size like the US go bad is bad for everyone. Besides, I don't want any people to suffer. But I agree, why vote for such a disgusting man, or why even vote for the political right even? If anything the US needed a yank.. to the left. Oh i agree, it would be even better if he also doesn't fuck up the US. Sadly, with everything i have heard so far, i do not think that that will happen. The US will probably not explode or anything, but it will be significantly worse after a Trump presidency than before. That is just something i see as sadly unavoidable after this result. I just hope that the rest of the world will not also be worse. Because we did not vote for this insanity. But i also never understood how the republican party gets elected in the first place, even without trump. Their positions on evolution, healthcare, religion, climate change, economics, abortion and pretty much anything they ever talk about are just simply the direct opposite of what i believe is correct, and even far away from anything i can reasonably imagine a person supporting. So i guess voting for the worst person i can imagine in office is a logical conclusion to that? Socially the US is a century behind Europe. That's why we cant imagine someone like Trump being elected. Its like looking back in time at the 1800's / early 1900's.
Spoken like an imbecile who has never been to the US.
User was temp banned for this post.
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By now I kinda am more excited than mad that Trump won, he also has a few points where I prefer him over Clinton. How much of the "crazy" stuff he said will be done, though. Did he mean most of the things or were they merely to make his chances to win better? Like I could imagine he'll truely increase taxes for foreign goods, but will he actually build a wall on the border to Mexico? I doubt it, many Americans seem to like it though so who knows.
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On November 09 2016 20:37 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2016 20:27 Penev wrote:On November 09 2016 20:20 Simberto wrote:On November 09 2016 20:10 Gorsameth wrote: Fighting climate change, gone
LGBT rights, gone
I wonder if the Republicans will have the guts to actually remove the ACA since there is no replacement.
Say goodbye to all the progress the US made in the past decades.
Guess Idiocracy was right.
American, you done fucked up. Yeah, i have to say, i simply can not explain this election result. It just makes no sense. Why would anyone vote for someone like trump is beyond me. I would vote for a literal stone over that guy. Does this mean that US politics is now completely unhinged from reality? Apparently it does not matter what is actually going on, the only thing relevant is what you claim. You can lie however much you want and still get elected president. And lets not even start about Pence. Pence is just disgusting. That man manages to demonstrate that he has no idea how science works, and still despises it in just 5 minutes of talking about evolution. And gay conversion camps... It is just so unimaginably insane to vote these people into a position of power, and actually give those people more power than Obama had. They can actually make laws, because they somehow control both houses of the US legislation, and they can not have those laws challenged because they control the supreme court, because the republicans were so incredibly dickish to just keep a slot in there open for a year just in case they won the election. This alone should have lost them the election. But for some reason it didn't. I agree that the US electoral system is horrifyingly stupid, but still, even with that horrible system you should have been able to elect someone less insane than trump. Elect a log of wood. It's still better than Trump. I just hope that he only fucks up your country, and doesn't manage to drag the EU down with him somehow. Having an economy of the size like the US go bad is bad for everyone. Besides, I don't want any people to suffer. But I agree, why vote for such a disgusting man, or why even vote for the political right even? If anything the US needed a yank.. to the left. Oh i agree, it would be even better if he also doesn't fuck up the US. Sadly, with everything i have heard so far, i do not think that that will happen. The US will probably not explode or anything, but it will be significantly worse after a Trump presidency than before. That is just something i see as sadly unavoidable after this result. I just hope that the rest of the world will not also be worse. Because we did not vote for this insanity. But i also never understood how the republican party gets elected in the first place, even without trump. Their positions on evolution, healthcare, religion, climate change, economics, abortion and pretty much anything they ever talk about are just simply the direct opposite of what i believe is correct, and even far away from anything i can reasonably imagine a person supporting. So i guess voting for the worst person i can imagine in office is a logical conclusion to that? I feel the same. And now they have the majority in everything
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That was a wild ride. Congrats Trump, i guess!
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Don't know why I'm still up, but she does, in the end, win the popular vote. You Democrats have got to stop packing yourselves into these states! Spread out, the rest of America isn't so bad!
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