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On October 30 2016 08:40 biology]major wrote:
Trump is taking full advantage of this, I think if the national lead gets closer within 1-2 points then the electoral map suddenly is unpredictable. The most recent national poll has Clinton up 5, so in the next 3-4 days if we see that cut significantly then it's a new ball game. The Clinton campaign is in a complete bind, they praised the shit out of Comey earlier and now look like hypocrites for criticizing him, what can they really do? If Comey doesn't clarify in the next week AND Trump doesn't fuck up, I think the odds of this election will probably go back to 50/50.
i don't think it'll go that far; and i'm sure some clarification will be done; as there's a lot of pressure on the fbi to clarify.
sloppy to have not done it already.
They should've had the FBI congressional liaison help write the letter, deliver it in person, and go over things with congress.
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On October 30 2016 08:42 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 08:40 biology]major wrote:
Trump is taking full advantage of this, I think if the national lead gets closer within 1-2 points then the electoral map suddenly is unpredictable. The most recent national poll has Clinton up 5, so in the next 3-4 days if we see that cut significantly then it's a new ball game. The Clinton campaign is in a complete bind, they praised the shit out of Comey earlier and now look like hypocrites for criticizing him, what can they really do? If Comey doesn't clarify in the next week AND Trump doesn't fuck up, I think the odds of this election will probably go back to 50/50. i don't think it'll go that far; and i'm sure some clarification will be done; as there's a lot of pressure on the fbi to clarify. sloppy to have not done it already. They should've had the FBI congressional liaison help write the letter, deliver it in person, and go over things with congress.
I'm going to predict a Trump victory at this point. There is too much momentum here, corruption is the worst label to have attached to you 11 days before the election. Clinton can't play any defense because she doesn't even know what it is the FBI has. Wikileaks will continue it's dumps in the upcoming days. So essentially you have the shadow trump support + this FBI investigaton at the worst possible time + wiki leaks. Just my hunch.
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On October 30 2016 08:40 biology]major wrote:
Trump is taking full advantage of this, I think if the national lead gets closer within 1-2 points then the electoral map suddenly is unpredictable. The most recent national poll has Clinton up 5, so in the next 3-4 days if we see that cut significantly then it's a new ball game. The Clinton campaign is in a complete bind, they praised the shit out of Comey earlier and now look like hypocrites for criticizing him, what can they really do? If Comey doesn't clarify in the next week AND Trump doesn't fuck up, I think this election will probably go back to 50/50.
Agreed. The whole thing helps downballet Republicans too, anytime the focus is on Clinton's corruption and not having to justify their support/non-support of Trump it helps. Clinton's corruption is one of the few unifying elements for Republicans this year.
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So delectably electable it would be foolish to pick anyone else as the nominee.
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On October 30 2016 08:46 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 08:42 zlefin wrote:On October 30 2016 08:40 biology]major wrote:
Trump is taking full advantage of this, I think if the national lead gets closer within 1-2 points then the electoral map suddenly is unpredictable. The most recent national poll has Clinton up 5, so in the next 3-4 days if we see that cut significantly then it's a new ball game. The Clinton campaign is in a complete bind, they praised the shit out of Comey earlier and now look like hypocrites for criticizing him, what can they really do? If Comey doesn't clarify in the next week AND Trump doesn't fuck up, I think the odds of this election will probably go back to 50/50. i don't think it'll go that far; and i'm sure some clarification will be done; as there's a lot of pressure on the fbi to clarify. sloppy to have not done it already. They should've had the FBI congressional liaison help write the letter, deliver it in person, and go over things with congress. I'm going to predict a Trump victory at this point. There is too much momentum here, corruption is the worst label to have attached to you 11 days before the election. Clinton can't play any defense because she doesn't even know what it is the FBI has. Wikileaks will continue it's dumps in the upcoming days. So essentially you have the shadow trump support + this FBI investigaton at the worst possible time + wiki leaks. Just my hunch.
seems more like wishful thinking than a hunch; it doesn't really have a basis for making that much of a difference. I'd recommend recalibrating your estimator if it doesn't happen. (i.e. the adjustment you make to your impression of the situation to account for your average level of bias/error)
lemme know if u need any explanations on possible errors.
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On October 30 2016 08:51 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 08:46 biology]major wrote:On October 30 2016 08:42 zlefin wrote:On October 30 2016 08:40 biology]major wrote:
Trump is taking full advantage of this, I think if the national lead gets closer within 1-2 points then the electoral map suddenly is unpredictable. The most recent national poll has Clinton up 5, so in the next 3-4 days if we see that cut significantly then it's a new ball game. The Clinton campaign is in a complete bind, they praised the shit out of Comey earlier and now look like hypocrites for criticizing him, what can they really do? If Comey doesn't clarify in the next week AND Trump doesn't fuck up, I think the odds of this election will probably go back to 50/50. i don't think it'll go that far; and i'm sure some clarification will be done; as there's a lot of pressure on the fbi to clarify. sloppy to have not done it already. They should've had the FBI congressional liaison help write the letter, deliver it in person, and go over things with congress. I'm going to predict a Trump victory at this point. There is too much momentum here, corruption is the worst label to have attached to you 11 days before the election. Clinton can't play any defense because she doesn't even know what it is the FBI has. Wikileaks will continue it's dumps in the upcoming days. So essentially you have the shadow trump support + this FBI investigaton at the worst possible time + wiki leaks. Just my hunch. seems more like wishful thinking than a hunch; it doesn't really have a basis for making that much of a difference. I'd recommend recalibrating your estimator if it doesn't happen. (i.e. the adjustment you make to your impression of the situation to account for your average level of bias/error) lemme know if u need any explanations on possible errors.
Unlike you zlefin, I have not been gifted with the power of being a cyborg, and rely on instincts.
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On October 30 2016 08:59 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 08:51 zlefin wrote:On October 30 2016 08:46 biology]major wrote:On October 30 2016 08:42 zlefin wrote:On October 30 2016 08:40 biology]major wrote:
Trump is taking full advantage of this, I think if the national lead gets closer within 1-2 points then the electoral map suddenly is unpredictable. The most recent national poll has Clinton up 5, so in the next 3-4 days if we see that cut significantly then it's a new ball game. The Clinton campaign is in a complete bind, they praised the shit out of Comey earlier and now look like hypocrites for criticizing him, what can they really do? If Comey doesn't clarify in the next week AND Trump doesn't fuck up, I think the odds of this election will probably go back to 50/50. i don't think it'll go that far; and i'm sure some clarification will be done; as there's a lot of pressure on the fbi to clarify. sloppy to have not done it already. They should've had the FBI congressional liaison help write the letter, deliver it in person, and go over things with congress. I'm going to predict a Trump victory at this point. There is too much momentum here, corruption is the worst label to have attached to you 11 days before the election. Clinton can't play any defense because she doesn't even know what it is the FBI has. Wikileaks will continue it's dumps in the upcoming days. So essentially you have the shadow trump support + this FBI investigaton at the worst possible time + wiki leaks. Just my hunch. seems more like wishful thinking than a hunch; it doesn't really have a basis for making that much of a difference. I'd recommend recalibrating your estimator if it doesn't happen. (i.e. the adjustment you make to your impression of the situation to account for your average level of bias/error) lemme know if u need any explanations on possible errors. Unlike you zlefin, I have not been gifted with the power of being a cyborg, and rely on instincts.
i'm not sure what you're point is.
My point is that, by observing carefully over time, you can estimate the amount of bias your instincts have and correct for that.
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On October 30 2016 09:01 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 08:59 biology]major wrote:On October 30 2016 08:51 zlefin wrote:On October 30 2016 08:46 biology]major wrote:On October 30 2016 08:42 zlefin wrote:On October 30 2016 08:40 biology]major wrote:
Trump is taking full advantage of this, I think if the national lead gets closer within 1-2 points then the electoral map suddenly is unpredictable. The most recent national poll has Clinton up 5, so in the next 3-4 days if we see that cut significantly then it's a new ball game. The Clinton campaign is in a complete bind, they praised the shit out of Comey earlier and now look like hypocrites for criticizing him, what can they really do? If Comey doesn't clarify in the next week AND Trump doesn't fuck up, I think the odds of this election will probably go back to 50/50. i don't think it'll go that far; and i'm sure some clarification will be done; as there's a lot of pressure on the fbi to clarify. sloppy to have not done it already. They should've had the FBI congressional liaison help write the letter, deliver it in person, and go over things with congress. I'm going to predict a Trump victory at this point. There is too much momentum here, corruption is the worst label to have attached to you 11 days before the election. Clinton can't play any defense because she doesn't even know what it is the FBI has. Wikileaks will continue it's dumps in the upcoming days. So essentially you have the shadow trump support + this FBI investigaton at the worst possible time + wiki leaks. Just my hunch. seems more like wishful thinking than a hunch; it doesn't really have a basis for making that much of a difference. I'd recommend recalibrating your estimator if it doesn't happen. (i.e. the adjustment you make to your impression of the situation to account for your average level of bias/error) lemme know if u need any explanations on possible errors. Unlike you zlefin, I have not been gifted with the power of being a cyborg, and rely on instincts. i'm not sure what you're point is. My point is that, by observing carefully over time, you can estimate the amount of bias your instincts have and correct for that.
Even though Comey's vague statement was not really that incriminating, the narrative will be controlled and morphed into something sinister for the next 10 days. Clinton cannot defend herself at all in any capacity unless Comey gives some more information. So basically unless Trump does some really dumb shit, the next week is going to be the Trump tapes on her end, simply because Trump camp and every republican will use this as an opportunity to tap into the 67% untrustworthy numbers she has and prey on it.
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On October 30 2016 09:19 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 09:01 zlefin wrote:On October 30 2016 08:59 biology]major wrote:On October 30 2016 08:51 zlefin wrote:On October 30 2016 08:46 biology]major wrote:On October 30 2016 08:42 zlefin wrote:On October 30 2016 08:40 biology]major wrote:
Trump is taking full advantage of this, I think if the national lead gets closer within 1-2 points then the electoral map suddenly is unpredictable. The most recent national poll has Clinton up 5, so in the next 3-4 days if we see that cut significantly then it's a new ball game. The Clinton campaign is in a complete bind, they praised the shit out of Comey earlier and now look like hypocrites for criticizing him, what can they really do? If Comey doesn't clarify in the next week AND Trump doesn't fuck up, I think the odds of this election will probably go back to 50/50. i don't think it'll go that far; and i'm sure some clarification will be done; as there's a lot of pressure on the fbi to clarify. sloppy to have not done it already. They should've had the FBI congressional liaison help write the letter, deliver it in person, and go over things with congress. I'm going to predict a Trump victory at this point. There is too much momentum here, corruption is the worst label to have attached to you 11 days before the election. Clinton can't play any defense because she doesn't even know what it is the FBI has. Wikileaks will continue it's dumps in the upcoming days. So essentially you have the shadow trump support + this FBI investigaton at the worst possible time + wiki leaks. Just my hunch. seems more like wishful thinking than a hunch; it doesn't really have a basis for making that much of a difference. I'd recommend recalibrating your estimator if it doesn't happen. (i.e. the adjustment you make to your impression of the situation to account for your average level of bias/error) lemme know if u need any explanations on possible errors. Unlike you zlefin, I have not been gifted with the power of being a cyborg, and rely on instincts. i'm not sure what you're point is. My point is that, by observing carefully over time, you can estimate the amount of bias your instincts have and correct for that. Even though Comey's vague statement was not really that incriminating, the narrative will be controlled and morphed into something sinister for the next 10 days. Clinton cannot defend herself at all in any capacity unless Comey gives some more information. So basically unless Trump does some really dumb shit, the next week is going to be the Trump tapes on her end, simply because Trump camp and every republican will use this as an opportunity to tap into the 67% untrustworthy numbers she has and prey on it.
the thing is, they already could and have been doing that.
also, you totally can defend against something without info. e.g. say they have nothing, say that investigations routinely reopen all the time.
comey's statement was not incriminating in the slightest. also comey is gonna have to correct himself really soon, no way there won't be more clarification before the election.
I mean, the email so-called scandal has been around a long time, and this is only one more piece of it that doesn't really change much about it.
also, trump not doing really dumb shit is a hard standard 
the people who're gonna find this new tiny email thing bad are people who're already anti-clinton fully.
So it's not likely to move the polls much at all, even less once the clarification comes out.
and all the bad stuff everyone has done is already playing all the time anyways. just cuz something is the most recent doesn't mean it's gonna have a huge effect.
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On October 30 2016 07:57 Nyxisto wrote:
"the rebels are evil" logic in the Syria conflict is pretty ridiculous given that Assad has killed people in the hundred thousands. Naturally every opposition in the country is legitimised if your own government attacks you with chemical weapons. Not to mention of course that Assad opportunistically empowered ISIS and radical forces when they are fighting other rebel groups.
I don't really get how "they are islamic rebels!" is an argument. Well.. it's Syria what did people expect, Shinto rebels?
You don't see the obvious flaw in your logic ? Do you not understand that Assad being evil does not make the rebel godly and good. From an occidental perspective, our engagement in the conflict should seek, if possible, the best solution for syrian and for occidentals. I'm not sure arming islamic groups is a good solution in regard to our interests, nor is it for most of the non muslim syrians.
Syria is such a clusterfuck at this point anyway ; a majority of the fighters are not even syrian anymore, most of the high officials of daesh are iraqis, it could very well both a civil war and a conquest.
On October 30 2016 07:15 Blisse wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 06:59 WhiteDog wrote:On October 30 2016 03:14 oneofthem wrote:
btw most of the rest of the world would welcome a more robust u.s. fp stance, certainly europeans. obama style aloofness is not building relationships. this idea that hrc is going to mess up a few relations is basically blame america first priors Which europeans are you talking about ? I welcome the change in FP that Obama represented, it was a blessing after the fiasco that was Bush. Yes, the US will always be criticized, because some people out there think somehow that the US has to be the father of the world and save everyone and prevent death and all, but the task - helping people and pushing for democratic agenda - is impossible considering the world as it is. This is actually something people don't want to acknowledge (that most of the "rebels" fighting Assad are islamic radicals at this point) because they somehow want to believe that there is a good solution in Syria and that their opposition to Russia is rational, while most of the democratic opposition to Assad has died out months if not years ago.
This is entirely irrationnal. I thought people understood, after the arabic revolts, that a massive revolt without any kind of progressive philosophy is not a revolution and should not be instantly supported. I haven't heard any news of this, could you link something? Did it die naturally? How was this in relation to the gassing? http://www.businessinsider.com/how-assad-benefited-from-ghouta-2014-8Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 07:07 Plansix wrote:
Political corruption is bad and people shouldn't be able to commit crimes and get away with it because of political connections. But we shouldn't start charging anyone with crimes based on public opinion. The rule of law is designed to combat mob justice. I agree with this. It's hard to tell though when corruption is well hidden and entrenched.
I don't have any US source on that, maybe someone have a good source on the subject. Anyway, just look at the history of the arab spring and you'll have plenty of materials.
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On October 30 2016 07:25 Plansix wrote:
In this case I'm not even sold on the crime itself. If the server lead to someone death, people being at risk or sort of substantive damage of American interests, I might be on board with the claims of corruption. But entire investigation has been all bluster with very little substance. Its about "mismanagement of top secret emails" but no one can really tell us exactly what dangerous secrets were exposed. Or even prove that they were exposed.
While looking around the last 24 hours, I've seen speculation somewhere that this is connected to an US attorney office in NYC, the one with US Attorney Preet Bharara at the top. His office seems to do very high profile stuff, see here his Wikipedia page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preet_Bharara
The investigation into Anthony Weiner's wiener is done by prosecutors under him. Here is a news article about them getting to his IT devices:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/22/politics/first-on-cnn-us-attorney-investigating-weiner-sexting-allegations/
This is just around a month old. This event should be how documents involving Clinton have gotten into new hands.
Comey had originally explained in front of that certain Congress committee that there was nothing super interesting on Clinton's servers. He said he thinks that no US attorney would prosecute whatever was found, and that's the reason the FBI investigation into Clinton's email affair was put to rest. He can't explain this in detail because things are classified, but he promised things were boring.
Maybe US Attorney Bharara has found something on those IT devices that will make him open investigation into Clinton, and Comey was messaged this. Maybe Comey bent truth a little when he testified in front of Congress because of political pressure. He now has to rescue the FBI's reputation and came out with that letter to get in front of what Bharara will do next.
If you search around a little, there's a lot of several month old news articles about Bharara and the Clinton Foundation. He was supposedly doing a probe into the foundation to see if an investigation should be started or not.
The problem is that those news articles seem to all be from media like dailymail.co.uk. There's nothing in reputable media, but reputable journalists routinely show up in Podesta emails with back and forth discussion before releasing articles. This makes you develop conspiracy theories and it's pretty depressing because it all fits together so well.
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On October 30 2016 09:33 WhiteDog wrote:
You don't see the obvious flaw in your logic ? Do you not understand that Assad being evil does not make the rebel godly and good. From an occidental perspective, our engagement in the conflict should seek, if possible, the best solution for syrian and for occidentals. I'm not sure arming islamic groups is a good solution in regard to our interests, nor is it for most of the non muslim syrians.
Syria is such a clusterfuck at this point anyway ; a majority of the fighters are not even syrian anymore, most of the high officials of daesh are iraqis, it could very well both a civil war and a conquest.
I don't think anybody qualifies as good in any meaningful sense which seems hardly possible given how this war has developed, but I don't think anybody can argue that a population can live under a genocidal dictator that kills his own population almost indiscriminately.
In that context arguing against "islamist rebels" simpl makes no sense. Given the circumstances that isn't some especially bad group. If there was some sizeable portion of secular, peaceful people who you could hand the country I'd say go for it, but that option doesn't exist.
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On October 30 2016 09:45 Ropid wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 07:25 Plansix wrote:
In this case I'm not even sold on the crime itself. If the server lead to someone death, people being at risk or sort of substantive damage of American interests, I might be on board with the claims of corruption. But entire investigation has been all bluster with very little substance. Its about "mismanagement of top secret emails" but no one can really tell us exactly what dangerous secrets were exposed. Or even prove that they were exposed. While looking around the last 24 hours, I've seen speculation somewhere that this is connected to an US attorney office in NYC, the one with US Attorney Preet Bharara at the top. His office seems to do very high profile stuff, see here his Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preet_BhararaThe investigation into Anthony Weiner's wiener is done by prosecutors under him. Here is a news article about them getting to his IT devices: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/22/politics/first-on-cnn-us-attorney-investigating-weiner-sexting-allegations/This is just around a month old. This event should be how documents involving Clinton have gotten into new hands. Comey had originally explained in front of that certain Congress committee that there was nothing super interesting on Clinton's servers. He said he thinks that no US attorney would prosecute whatever was found, and that's the reason the FBI investigation into Clinton's email affair was put to rest. He can't explain this in detail because things are classified, but he promised things were boring. Maybe US Attorney Bharara has found something on those IT devices that will make him open investigation into Clinton, and Comey was messaged this. Maybe Comey bent truth a little when he testified in front of Congress because of political pressure. He now has to rescue the FBI's reputation and came out with that letter to get in front of what Bharara will do next. If you search around a little, there's a lot of several month old news articles about Bharara and the Clinton Foundation. He was supposedly doing a probe into the foundation to see if an investigation should be started or not. The problem is that those news articles seem to all be from media like dailymail.co.uk. There's nothing in reputable media, but reputable journalists routinely show up in Podesta emails with back and forth discussion before releasing articles. This makes you develop conspiracy theories and it's pretty depressing because it all fits together so well.
Damn, This Preet guy would seriously drain the swamp in Washington, we need people like him.
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On October 30 2016 09:49 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 09:33 WhiteDog wrote:
You don't see the obvious flaw in your logic ? Do you not understand that Assad being evil does not make the rebel godly and good. From an occidental perspective, our engagement in the conflict should seek, if possible, the best solution for syrian and for occidentals. I'm not sure arming islamic groups is a good solution in regard to our interests, nor is it for most of the non muslim syrians.
Syria is such a clusterfuck at this point anyway ; a majority of the fighters are not even syrian anymore, most of the high officials of daesh are iraqis, it could very well both a civil war and a conquest.
I don't think anybody qualifies as good in any meaningful sense which seems hardly possible given how this war has developed, but I don't think anybody can argue that a population can live under a genocidal dictator that kills his own population almost indiscriminately. In that context arguing against "islamist rebels" simpl makes no sense. Given the circumstances that isn't some especially bad group. If there was some sizeable portion of secular, peaceful people who you could hand the country I'd say go for it, but that option doesn't exist.
So you're okay to arm islamist groups is what you're saying ? What if, similarly to what happened in Iraq, the weapons you gave those rebels are then used to further destabilize other countries, like Lybia for exemple ? Or even closer, Lebanon ? What will you do then ? Arm lybians and lebanese ?
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On October 30 2016 10:05 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 09:49 Nyxisto wrote:On October 30 2016 09:33 WhiteDog wrote:
You don't see the obvious flaw in your logic ? Do you not understand that Assad being evil does not make the rebel godly and good. From an occidental perspective, our engagement in the conflict should seek, if possible, the best solution for syrian and for occidentals. I'm not sure arming islamic groups is a good solution in regard to our interests, nor is it for most of the non muslim syrians.
Syria is such a clusterfuck at this point anyway ; a majority of the fighters are not even syrian anymore, most of the high officials of daesh are iraqis, it could very well both a civil war and a conquest.
I don't think anybody qualifies as good in any meaningful sense which seems hardly possible given how this war has developed, but I don't think anybody can argue that a population can live under a genocidal dictator that kills his own population almost indiscriminately. In that context arguing against "islamist rebels" simpl makes no sense. Given the circumstances that isn't some especially bad group. If there was some sizeable portion of secular, peaceful people who you could hand the country I'd say go for it, but that option doesn't exist. So you're okay to arm islamist groups is what you're saying ?
but dude, assad n stuff. how can you possibly not help topple the evil murderer killing billions of syrians every minute?
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Aside from the fact that anyone between Mosul and Aleppo that is holding a weapon without backing by a recognized government is simply a part of ISIS, we cannot give anyone weapons. That is always a retarded move. I mean... holy shit. Giving people weapons means people will use those weapons to kill each other and bystanders get hurt. We need to negotiate with Assad. And in order to do that, we need Russia. We also need (or, at the very least, could use) Russia to help us defeat ISIS in Syria. Russia has proposed a combined US/Russia military effort to do just this but the US refused.
I say, just lift the sanctions. Russia will be even more willing to help fight ISIS and negotiate with Assad and it will be better for everyone economically. Why do not do this stupidly obvious thing which is the only solution to this situation. Hopefully Obama will do this before he calls it quits.
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On October 30 2016 08:46 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 08:42 zlefin wrote:On October 30 2016 08:40 biology]major wrote:
Trump is taking full advantage of this, I think if the national lead gets closer within 1-2 points then the electoral map suddenly is unpredictable. The most recent national poll has Clinton up 5, so in the next 3-4 days if we see that cut significantly then it's a new ball game. The Clinton campaign is in a complete bind, they praised the shit out of Comey earlier and now look like hypocrites for criticizing him, what can they really do? If Comey doesn't clarify in the next week AND Trump doesn't fuck up, I think the odds of this election will probably go back to 50/50. i don't think it'll go that far; and i'm sure some clarification will be done; as there's a lot of pressure on the fbi to clarify. sloppy to have not done it already. They should've had the FBI congressional liaison help write the letter, deliver it in person, and go over things with congress. I'm going to predict a Trump victory at this point. There is too much momentum here, corruption is the worst label to have attached to you 11 days before the election. Clinton can't play any defense because she doesn't even know what it is the FBI has. Wikileaks will continue it's dumps in the upcoming days. So essentially you have the shadow trump support + this FBI investigaton at the worst possible time + wiki leaks. Just my hunch.
Good to see there is still some sanity around here.
Saw a really bizarre post in this thread yesterday claiming the latest FBI scandal would help Clinton...
Crazy times.
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that was probably me, and i did qualify it heavily a part of the various voter movements b/w trump, clinton and no preference. but it's okay, i know reading comprehension isn't a strong suit of yours. or perhaps reading in general, as it seems you don't even read your own sources let alone many of the posts in this thread.
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On October 30 2016 10:05 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2016 09:49 Nyxisto wrote:On October 30 2016 09:33 WhiteDog wrote:
You don't see the obvious flaw in your logic ? Do you not understand that Assad being evil does not make the rebel godly and good. From an occidental perspective, our engagement in the conflict should seek, if possible, the best solution for syrian and for occidentals. I'm not sure arming islamic groups is a good solution in regard to our interests, nor is it for most of the non muslim syrians.
Syria is such a clusterfuck at this point anyway ; a majority of the fighters are not even syrian anymore, most of the high officials of daesh are iraqis, it could very well both a civil war and a conquest.
I don't think anybody qualifies as good in any meaningful sense which seems hardly possible given how this war has developed, but I don't think anybody can argue that a population can live under a genocidal dictator that kills his own population almost indiscriminately. In that context arguing against "islamist rebels" simpl makes no sense. Given the circumstances that isn't some especially bad group. If there was some sizeable portion of secular, peaceful people who you could hand the country I'd say go for it, but that option doesn't exist. So you're okay to arm islamist groups is what you're saying ? What if, similarly to what happened in Iraq, the weapons you gave those rebels are then used to further destabilize other countries, like Lybia for exemple ? Or even closer, Lebanon ? What will you do then ? Arm lybians and lebanese ?
Arming rebels isn't the only destabilizing thing in the ME, the region is so volatile that you'd need an oracle to actually tie events in one country causally to another. This always turns into a game of "what decision do you hate the most" and this then simply gets the load of blame for all of the misery.
I simply think Assad is done for, he has gone way too far and I think this war will go on until he is gone. Whatever comes after him is uncertain I guess, but we probably should do what we can to empower the factions that are best for the region and least likely to harm us.
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EPT
