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On October 19 2016 10:58 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2016 10:16 zlefin wrote: I'd like to try an alternate form of government. Maybe some sort of non-election based democracy; but not direct democracy, cuz that's trash. I'm sure we cal all agree here that the system is broken and Clinton will not fix it.She's been part of the problem for years.She benefits from the current system via kickbacks, pork barreling, cushy benefits and a very generous pension scheme. Say what you like about Sanders but i think he could have made some meaningful changes to the system.Trump made huge wealth outside the system so would have no issues shaking up the political system, thats why such pushback from the establishment politicians. I don't think sanders would've gotten anything done, he has a strong record of refusing to work with anyone and refusing to compromise to get anything done. If he did do anything it would not be meaningful. Clinton might be business as usual but you can at least be sure she will work towards some small positive changes, which to me is preferable to bernie attempting many big changes and doing nothing at all, or trump destroying everything.
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On October 19 2016 10:05 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2016 09:59 Dan HH wrote:On October 19 2016 09:49 Nyxisto wrote: Scott Adams genuinely sounds like he's mentally ill, what is that bizarre rant about twitter on his page Why all the attention given to him this campaign? He's less coherent than Nettles He's a moderately talented writer (which is far more than can be said for any of Trump's other supporters) and he did in fact call Trump's rise very early on before any of the other pundits. He seemed to be trying to give off the air of being unbiased at first, but either he bought into his own game or stopped being able to hide his bias after a while. It was also appealing to have someone say "I know why Trump is doing well!" when everyone else was saying "No, but really, this doesn't work" even when it was clearly working, that was the reason for his initial rise in popularity. The end moral of the Adams-Trump saga is that Adams understands white males and what appeals to them very well, but he has no fucking clue about the rest of the general public - so his analysis fell apart after the primaries when women became the most important voting bloc.
I'm not sure I agree. I think he actually misses the boat on why Trump is popular. Admitting in advance that this grouping is reductive, I think Trump's support comes from a few sources:
1. Cultural conservatives - this one is pretty clear 2. Traditional Republicans - largely because they believe the Democrats and HRC are somewhere between wrong and "will ruin the country within 4 years" 3. People who are just totally fed up with the US political system because they feel that they have been left behind. This is part of the overlap with Bernie supporters, but Trump draws from the older version of this group.
#2 has traditionally had a significant amount of intellectual/policy underpinning, but the lack of policy from Trump has rendered it fairly meaningless this year. Groups 1 and 3 are largely reactionary, and there isn't the volume of thought leadership for these groups (not to say that the individuals supporting them are dumb). As a result, most right-wing writing has been about how bad Hillary is.
I think that's where Scott Adams' appeal comes in. Suddenly there's a new view of Trump. Instead of a rabble-rousing populist with no grasp of facts like that evil media says, he's actually a cagey intellectual puppetmaster, genius of persuation. For many Trump supporters, I would have to think this is a much-preferable portrait of him, and a self-affirming one as well. I attribute Adams' popularity to this theory rather than Adams' skill in understanding voters, because his thesis on Trump seems rather obviously wrong. Hell, let's take the very first point on that last post:
"Facts and policies stopped mattering months ago. No one cares."
Well that's a good thing for Trump. He got on stage at the debates and either lied or just messed up facts constantly for 90 minutes. It wasn't widely discussed, but even on the area where pundits thought he did well (the economy), one of his absolute baseline facts underpinning his plan was wrong. China isn't currently devaluing their currency. If facts mattered to everyone it's hard to imagine Trump's support going anywhere but down, because facts are a weakness for him.
View that from the lens of the being appealing rather than correct it starts to make sense. It isn't right, but it makes Trump-supporting readers feel good.
Let's do another one, from his second debate post:
"1. When the Access Hollywood tape came up, Trump dismissed it as locker room banter that he regrets. You expected that part. The persuasion move was that he quickly contrasted that “small” issue with images of ISIS beheadings, and cage-drownings. It was a high ground maneuver, a powerful visual anchor (like the Rosie O’Donnell move from his first primary debate), and a contrast play. In this framing, Trump cares about saving your life while Clinton cares about your choice of words. I realize the issue is Trump’s alleged deeds, not his words. But in terms of debate persuasion, Trump nailed it hard."
Again, this isn't a case of him understanding how anyone thinks; the consensus was that this response was such blatant misdirection and minimization of sexual assault that it hurt him. Instead, this is just more "look how smart Trump is, man he's great" to make supporters feel good. If Trump were the master of persuasion Adams claims, he wouldn't shoot himself in the foot at basically every opportunity.
tl;dr: Adams doesn't actually understand how people think, he just makes them feel good about their positions.
Oh god here's another one:
"5. The best quotable moments from the debate are pro-Trump. His comment about putting Clinton in jail has that marvelous visual persuasion quality about it, and it was the laugh of the night, which means it will be repeated endlessly. He also looked like he meant it."
Yeah, sure Scott, that's exactly how that one played, definitely persuaded undecideds. He was correct about it being replayed incessantly, though...
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I'd really like it if the US could gradually stop allying with Saudi Arabia (or give their citizens the same rights most Western societies have), and under Hillary, that alliance is only going to increase since she's taken loads of money from them in the past
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Nevuk I just re-read and I think I actually agree with you entirely except your summation. Except I used way more words, so, you know, obviously that's better.
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On October 19 2016 11:04 plasmidghost wrote: I'd really like it if the US could gradually stop allying with Saudi Arabia (or give their citizens the same rights most Western societies have), and under Hillary, that alliance is only going to increase since she's taken loads of money from them in the past
I dream of a world where Iran is a really close US ally that also gets along with Israel somehow.
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On October 19 2016 10:58 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Say what you like about Sanders but i think he could have made some meaningful changes to the system.Trump made huge wealth outside the system so would have no issues shaking up the political system, thats why such pushback from the establishment politicians. Said pushback would stop either Trump or Sanders from making any real substantive change to the core of the political system. They only have leverage now due to it being election season, so the elites actually kind of need to curry favor with voters. Once election season is over, Washington goes back to being a black box that goes ignored by 99% of the population so the elites go back to stonewalling anything that threatens their own power.
The idea that a vote for Sanders/Trump is going to reform the political system is based in the foolish belief that's plagued American politics that the presidential vote is the only one that matters, so you get a ton of voter turnout for the presidential election from people that don't give two shits about their local elections. In actuality, substantive change in the system requires working from the bottom up, and merely voting in an anti-establishment president is unlikely to accomplish that presumed goal of reforming the system. It's far more likely that congress just blocks said president from ever getting anything done.
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On October 19 2016 11:07 CatharsisUT wrote: Nevuk I just re-read and I think I actually agree with you entirely except your summation. Except I used way more words, so, you know, obviously that's better. Yeah, the conclusion was a few leaps away and I didn't want to get into the weedy details of his blog - kind of "why did he suddenly become utterly ridiculous 100% of the time rather than just about 50-60% of the time", which I would attribute to his overvaluing his own masculine point of view.
I agree with your points, though. I don't have the patience to go back through his blog and hash out individual points, mine was just an overarching take on it from what I remembered having read through most of his posts.
There's also sort of a cynical meta-understanding that I think we both agree on - he understands how to cater his posts almost surgically to the Trump base in a way that pleases them. It's why I went to his blog to see how he was spinning the sexual assault claims, as he's better at that than the actual Trump campaign for the most part. To see him come up empty and just sort of rage about women controlling the country now was somewhat entertaining and informative in that there's no good spin on it.
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On October 19 2016 11:16 TheYango wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2016 10:58 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Say what you like about Sanders but i think he could have made some meaningful changes to the system.Trump made huge wealth outside the system so would have no issues shaking up the political system, thats why such pushback from the establishment politicians. Said pushback would stop either Trump or Sanders from making any real substantive change to the core of the political system. They only have leverage now due to it being election season, so the elites actually kind of need to curry favor with voters. Once election season is over, Washington goes back to being a black box that goes ignored by 99% of the population so the elites go back to stonewalling anything that threatens their own power. The idea that a vote for Sanders/Trump is going to reform the political system is based in the foolish belief that's plagued American politics that the presidential vote is the only one that matters, so you get a ton of voter turnout for the presidential election from people that don't give two shits about their local elections. In actuality, substantive change in the system requires working from the bottom up, and merely voting in an anti-establishment president is unlikely to accomplish that presumed goal of reforming the system. It's far more likely that congress just blocks said president from ever getting anything done. I have no idea what we can do to get people invested in politics again, it seems like ever since Nixon's Watergate scandal, there's been a steady rise in apathy in our society to government. Should we force people to vote? I personally don't think we should, but it certainly would get people (hopefully) invested in the elections
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On October 19 2016 11:13 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2016 11:04 plasmidghost wrote: I'd really like it if the US could gradually stop allying with Saudi Arabia (or give their citizens the same rights most Western societies have), and under Hillary, that alliance is only going to increase since she's taken loads of money from them in the past I dream of a world where Iran is a really close US ally that also gets along with Israel somehow.
you mean the one where we didnt overthrow a democratically elected leader and replace him a totalitarian?
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Campaign operatives who competed against Donald Trump in the Republican primaries are bristling at suggestions they failed to fully investigate the businessman during his march to the nomination.
Trump’s campaign has been rocked by multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, which came to light after a damaging video was uncovered this month from 2005 in which the businessman talks about grabbing women “by the p----.”
Before that, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton steered media attention toward Trump’s treatment of women by calling out Trump’s mockery of a former Miss Universe as “Miss Piggy.” With each new revelation, political observers wonder: How did such damaging material escape the attention of the 16 Republicans Trump beat during the primaries?
Mike Murphy, who led the $118 million super PAC effort to elect Jeb Bush, said it’s “horses---” to suggest his team didn’t do enough opposition research on Trump.
He said his critics — some of whom were rival consultants and prefer to remain anonymous — were being unfair when they said he should have spent less on TV ads and more on digging dirt on Trump.
“To assume that if we had some oppo guy paying women to come forward,” said Murphy, “and we could’ve with telepathy known who they were, and then we would’ve just given it to the papers and they would’ve all printed it, is just an amateur fantasy about how oppo works.”
Others in the GOP see things differently.
“It’s political malpractice on behalf of Mike Murphy, and negligence to not do the homework on a guy that’s winning primaries,” said an influential Republican fundraiser, who spoke to The Hill on the condition of anonymity.
“I happen to believe that all of this should have come out [during the primaries],” he said.
“If you put money out there, this s--- comes, believe me.”
‘There are limits to opposition research’
Republican operatives who worked for Trump’s top rivals say the media has a lot to answer for when it comes to vetting Trump.
NBC, for example, owned the “Access Hollywood” tape in which Trump was caught on a hot mic talking to host Billy Bush about groping women without their consent.
“I had somebody ask me the other day, ‘Aren’t you mad at Billy Bush [for not giving his cousin Jeb the damaging tape]?’ ” said Tim Miller, the former spokesman for Jeb Bush’s campaign.
“And I’m like, ‘Well, no. … I don’t know all the ins and outs. I don’t know if he realized how bad it was,’ ” Miller said. “I’m mad at NBC, who has a news reporting budget that is probably 50 to 100 [times] what our campaign budget was.”
Added a senior operative from another of Trump’s rival GOP primary campaigns: “What are we supposed to do? Break into NBC and steal their tapes?”
Nor, these operatives argued, would it have been easy for opposition researchers to find women to come forward with sexual allegations against Trump.
Jeff Sadosky, who served as communications director for a super PAC backing Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), said it’s naive to imagine that a good opposition researcher could have unearthed these stories sooner.
“Everyone assumed there were closets full of skeletons,” said Sadosky, “but the best opposition researcher in the world won’t find a woman on a plane 30 years ago until she’s ready to tell her story.”
Katie Packer, an experienced GOP operative who led a well-funded effort to stop Trump, said, “I think these women, who have only shared these stories with close friends up until now, became unglued when they heard him bragging about this behavior on tape and then denying he’d ever done it at the debate.
“There are limits to opposition research.”
But it’s not as if there wasn’t other evidence out there of Trump’s treatment of women.
During the first GOP primary debate, on Fox News in August 2015, co-moderator Megyn Kelly asked Trump about a series of derogatory comments he’d made about women. These included calling women he doesn’t like “fat pigs, dogs, slobs and disgusting animals.”
Kelly’s question enraged Trump and made her a target.
None of Trump’s rivals, however, did much with Kelly’s research, and it never became a big issue during the primaries. Nor did they pounce when BuzzFeed published a story in February dredging up hours of audio of Trump making crude remarks about women to radio host Howard Stern.
Trump was undoubtedly helped in the primaries by the size of the field.
He had so many competitors that few candidates had the cash to invest in deep opposition research against him.
Some candidates — particularly Bush, Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) in the later stages — hit Trump on his business record, including his now-defunct Trump University. But during the primaries, these candidates too often had to allocate precious resources to defend against daily attacks from candidates other than Trump.
“We were not a cash-rich campaign,” said Matt Beynon, a top adviser to GOP candidate Rick Santorum. “We had to make a lot of difficult decisions on how we used our resources.
“Right to Rise and the Bush campaign,” added Beynon, “they had the luxury of a lot of money. They chose to use their opposition research on other candidates … such as Sen. Rubio.”
Even the Bush campaign, however, had to pare back opposition research to save money.
Miller said the Bush campaign had a three-person research team to produce opposition material on 16 candidates. The campaign was firing people and cutting costs from early on. Still, those three produced a book of opposition research on Trump, which Miller said Bush used to hit Trump for his casino dealings.
Miller contrasted the Bush team’s fairly basic opposition research on Trump to the years-long effort required to do serious opposition research. He said the GOP opposition group America Rising, which Miller co-founded, started its Clinton research book in the summer of 2013.
“With Trump, who came out of nowhere to run, you’re building this file as you’re flying the plane,” said Miller.
“Hindsight being 20/20,” Miller added, “obviously, we would’ve spent more time on Trump.”
Miller doesn’t believe Bush would’ve benefited from an early leaking of the “Access Hollywood” tape. It would have been tough to find a Trump voter who had Bush as his second choice. Bush, therefore, had no strategic imperative to call out Trump early, even though he was one of the few candidates who did.
Such calculations get at one of the major reasons Trump’s rivals — who wanted to get down to a one-on-one race against him — didn’t go after the GOP nominee until it was too late.
“There’s a game theory element to this,” Miller said, “where everybody was looking out for their own best interests and nobody’s best interest was to go after Trump ... because each candidate that did end up going after him ended up hurting themselves.”
Cruz spent much of 2015 praising Trump, so his belated attacks didn’t seem authentic. He also had a relatively weak opposition research team.
Similarly, Rubio, who did have a top opposition guy, waited until late February to begin attacking Trump, as he saw no benefits to go after the front-runner earlier. Rubio’s team was fixated on defending against well-funded attack ads from the pro-Bush super PAC Right to Rise.
Trump’s only other serious rival, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, was never going to get into the mud with Trump, as doing so would go against his Christian principles.
“With Dr. Carson, we were never going to attack an opponent,” said Ed Brookover, Carson’s former campaign manager who later worked for Trump.
“No oppo for us.”
Would any of it have worked?
Trump’s rivals were slow to take him seriously and even slower to do serious research into his past.
Still, more than half a dozen sources who worked on Trump’s rival campaigns expressed private doubts that any opposition research would’ve stopped a candidate with such blindly loyal supporters.
Of the Monday morning quarterbacking, so prevalent now in Washington Republican circles, Murphy said, “Mostly it’s rearview mirror sour grapes from rival campaigns that all had millions of their own.”
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/301616-republicans-bristle-at-notion-they-failed-to-vet-trump
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On October 19 2016 10:58 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2016 10:16 zlefin wrote: I'd like to try an alternate form of government. Maybe some sort of non-election based democracy; but not direct democracy, cuz that's trash. I'm sure we cal all agree here that the system is broken and Clinton will not fix it.She's been part of the problem for years.She benefits from the current system via kickbacks, pork barreling, cushy benefits and a very generous pension scheme. Say what you like about Sanders but i think he could have made some meaningful changes to the system.Trump made huge wealth outside the system so would have no issues shaking up the political system, thats why such pushback from the establishment politicians. I wouldn't call the system broken, so much as flawed and imperfect, so I cannot agree on that part. I don't think the pension scheme is meaningful to her, nor the cushy benefits of gov't jobs, as both are dwarfed by her earning capacity. Trump has no idea how to fix the system, so he'd be useless there, flailing around foolishly doesn't help, you need to know what you're doing.
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On October 19 2016 09:58 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2016 09:48 ChristianS wrote:On October 19 2016 08:56 Danglars wrote:On October 19 2016 06:25 ChristianS wrote:On October 19 2016 04:26 Danglars wrote:On October 19 2016 03:50 TheYango wrote: I think it's plausible that the Clintons are corrupt, but given the connections that both no doubt already have in place from their terms as president/SoS, their high-profile charity that's consistently subject to scrutiny seems like just about the dumbest possible vehicle for said corruption available to them. If they wanted to do some questionable things why the hell would they do it through the Clinton Foundation? There's an investigation now, and multiple records of ethics violations and improprieties that are made public long after the fact. Otherwise, what scrutiny? They ran it for years with aggressive fundraising from foreign governments without backlash for clear conflicts of interest. Well, that and Hillary's inept handling of coverups and corruption seen in the email scandal. Hubris may still be the death of her. I'm confused, I thought your position on the e-mails was that Hillary was just criminally negligent (i.e. unintentionally put government secrets at risk). If she lied afterward to avoid charges I can see where you get "coverup," but if it's unintentional then how is it corrupt? Operated in gross disregard about the consequences of her actions, no matter who it hurt. Unintentional only with respect to wanting national security harmed/Russia or China or someone benefitted. She'll still tell seven fase stories and delete thousands of subpoena'd emails while telling everyone she's released everything and is cooperating fully just because it looks bad for her. You might not have wanted to kill this man, but you were reckless enough to see that possibility, and tried to hide the body afterwards (and in this case poorly. America deserves better corruption imo). So to clarify, is the use of a private e-mail account criminal negligence? Or does it become criminal negligence when you put it on a private server? Or was it not illegal until the coverup made it criminally negligent? Depending on which, you could be painting a pretty broad swathe of State Department employees as felons Storing classified information on it and moving it there from secure state department servers certainly is. But you have better reading comprehension than to go on this line, and you know it. Here's a question: When Hillary was interviewed by the FBI, what reason/reasons did she give for not following her training and did you believe her? I don't know how she answered. I've heard from people like yourself that she answered differently at different points in the investigation, but again, that's in the "coverup," not the original offense. My understanding is that if using non-state.gov addresses qualifies as a felony under the espionage act, a huge chunk of the State Department is guilty.
Obviously this is anecdotal and you can't verify it, so take it for whatyou will, but my sister works at the State Department and apparently when she met her boss and he was telling her how to communicate with him, he gave her his business card, which just had a yahoo address on it. Apparently the state.gov servers are really unreliable when you try to access them from various places around the globe, so a lot of higher-ups work primarily through private emails.
Admittedly that's not the same as a private server, but in general a private server would seem more secure than a yahoo address, so I'm not seeing the gross negligence.
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United States42657 Posts
On October 19 2016 11:04 plasmidghost wrote: I'd really like it if the US could gradually stop allying with Saudi Arabia (or give their citizens the same rights most Western societies have), and under Hillary, that alliance is only going to increase since she's taken loads of money from them in the past That's not how it works. Like at all.
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On October 19 2016 09:59 Nevuk wrote:This was interesting, but I don't have the legal background to know if it's based in reality or not : Show nested quote +The DNC just reached a new low with its latest defensive filing in the class action lawsuit brought by a group of Bernie Sanders supporters.
To recap: a group of plaintiff donors to the Sanders campaign sued the Democratic National Committee (“DNC”) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz in federal court in Florida. The lawsuit alleges that the DNC’s favoritism of Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders amounted to fraud, misrepresentation, unjust enrichment, breach of fiduciary duty, and negligence. The plaintiffs have pointed to damning evidence in the shape of emails posted by Wikileaks proving that the Democratic Party was working against Bernie Sanders from the start.
On October 14, the DNC filed its brief in support of its motion to dismiss the lawsuit, and some of its defenses are real whoppers. The brief begins with the usual fare – arguments over procedural defects and jurisdiction. But nestled in the brief are two arguments that are deeply disturbing. First, there’s the contention by the DNC that the Bernie Sanders donors knew that the committee was biased. Second, and even more disturbing, is the argument that any statements about being neutral and fair to all candidates if made by the DNC were nothing but “political promises” and are unenforceable at law.
In describing some of the “inadequacies” in the complaint against it, the DNC called the court’s attention to the following example:
“For instance, Plaintiffs assert that “members of the [Donor Classes] have incurred an injury-in-fact because they … [made] donations, based on the belief that the Democratic presidential nominating process was fair and unbiased,” a belief they say was “propagated and confirmed by Defendants’ misrepresentations and omissions…”
According to the DNC’s argument, the assumption that the presidential nominating process was fair can not amount to an appropriate basis for a lawsuit because any indications of fairness are nothing more than “purported political promises.” Why did they make that argument? It was a clever legal maneuver. In general, neither donors nor constituents have standing to sue over broken political promises based on a variety of long-held legal principles, not the least of which is that as an appropriate remedy “voters are free to vote out of office those politicians seen to have breached campaign promises…” Only the 2016 election could make assumptions of basic fairness seem dirty and suspect.
Clearly, filing a lawsuit every time a politician fails to deliver on campaign promises isn’t the best course of action. However, this case is a bit different and characterizing an assumption that the DNC operates on an unbiased playing field as merely a “political promise” is nothing short of outrageous. A fundamental tenet of the law governing contracts as well as fraud is that when a fundamental assumption on which a bargain is based turns out to be untrue, that falsehood strikes at the heart of the underlying deal. Remedies differ depending on whether the perpetration of the falsehood was accidental or purposeful — but it’s always a bad thing for the deal. While I admire creative lawyering on the part of the DNC, such tactics shall not, cannot, and should not apply to organizations as influential the DNC while participating in in the election of a president.
The plaintiffs in this lawsuit are donors who made contributions ranging from $5 to $2700 to the Bernie Sanders campaign. I think it was unlikely that any of them expected Senator Sanders to fulfill every campaign promise in its entirety. The average American knows that politics are a complicated game, and that promises often go unfulfilled. And there’s a certain amount of political shadiness that even the least sophisticated among us expects. But basing a legal defense on the premise that the presidential nomination process was known to be rigged even before it began far exceeds what is reasonable. The DNC has valid, logical, and respectable defenses it can assert with regard to this lawsuit; its choice to advance this one was wrong-footed and irresponsible.
http://lawnewz.com/uncategorized/dnc-stoops-to-new-low-in-fraud-lawsuit-filed-by-bernie-backers/ I pulled the pleadings for shits and giggles. I was particularly amused by the fact that the Plaintiffs' leading argument against the motion to dismiss is that the Defendant's brief's length is too long and doesn't comply with local rules (particularly when it looks like the brief probably does comply). Plaintiffs' brief overall is a mess, and the lack of on point legal authority is striking.
As for the article that you cite, I think that the author raises a valid point about outrageousness of the DNC's argument. Regardless of the technical legal merits of Plaintiffs' claims, the DNC's arguments that its promises to run a fair primary are not legally binding and cognizable should give Democrats serious pause.
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United States42657 Posts
On October 19 2016 11:29 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +Campaign operatives who competed against Donald Trump in the Republican primaries are bristling at suggestions they failed to fully investigate the businessman during his march to the nomination.
Trump’s campaign has been rocked by multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, which came to light after a damaging video was uncovered this month from 2005 in which the businessman talks about grabbing women “by the p----.”
Before that, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton steered media attention toward Trump’s treatment of women by calling out Trump’s mockery of a former Miss Universe as “Miss Piggy.” With each new revelation, political observers wonder: How did such damaging material escape the attention of the 16 Republicans Trump beat during the primaries?
Mike Murphy, who led the $118 million super PAC effort to elect Jeb Bush, said it’s “horses---” to suggest his team didn’t do enough opposition research on Trump.
He said his critics — some of whom were rival consultants and prefer to remain anonymous — were being unfair when they said he should have spent less on TV ads and more on digging dirt on Trump.
“To assume that if we had some oppo guy paying women to come forward,” said Murphy, “and we could’ve with telepathy known who they were, and then we would’ve just given it to the papers and they would’ve all printed it, is just an amateur fantasy about how oppo works.”
Others in the GOP see things differently.
“It’s political malpractice on behalf of Mike Murphy, and negligence to not do the homework on a guy that’s winning primaries,” said an influential Republican fundraiser, who spoke to The Hill on the condition of anonymity.
“I happen to believe that all of this should have come out [during the primaries],” he said.
“If you put money out there, this s--- comes, believe me.”
‘There are limits to opposition research’
Republican operatives who worked for Trump’s top rivals say the media has a lot to answer for when it comes to vetting Trump.
NBC, for example, owned the “Access Hollywood” tape in which Trump was caught on a hot mic talking to host Billy Bush about groping women without their consent.
“I had somebody ask me the other day, ‘Aren’t you mad at Billy Bush [for not giving his cousin Jeb the damaging tape]?’ ” said Tim Miller, the former spokesman for Jeb Bush’s campaign.
“And I’m like, ‘Well, no. … I don’t know all the ins and outs. I don’t know if he realized how bad it was,’ ” Miller said. “I’m mad at NBC, who has a news reporting budget that is probably 50 to 100 [times] what our campaign budget was.”
Added a senior operative from another of Trump’s rival GOP primary campaigns: “What are we supposed to do? Break into NBC and steal their tapes?”
Nor, these operatives argued, would it have been easy for opposition researchers to find women to come forward with sexual allegations against Trump.
Jeff Sadosky, who served as communications director for a super PAC backing Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), said it’s naive to imagine that a good opposition researcher could have unearthed these stories sooner.
“Everyone assumed there were closets full of skeletons,” said Sadosky, “but the best opposition researcher in the world won’t find a woman on a plane 30 years ago until she’s ready to tell her story.”
Katie Packer, an experienced GOP operative who led a well-funded effort to stop Trump, said, “I think these women, who have only shared these stories with close friends up until now, became unglued when they heard him bragging about this behavior on tape and then denying he’d ever done it at the debate.
“There are limits to opposition research.”
But it’s not as if there wasn’t other evidence out there of Trump’s treatment of women.
During the first GOP primary debate, on Fox News in August 2015, co-moderator Megyn Kelly asked Trump about a series of derogatory comments he’d made about women. These included calling women he doesn’t like “fat pigs, dogs, slobs and disgusting animals.”
Kelly’s question enraged Trump and made her a target.
None of Trump’s rivals, however, did much with Kelly’s research, and it never became a big issue during the primaries. Nor did they pounce when BuzzFeed published a story in February dredging up hours of audio of Trump making crude remarks about women to radio host Howard Stern.
Trump was undoubtedly helped in the primaries by the size of the field.
He had so many competitors that few candidates had the cash to invest in deep opposition research against him.
Some candidates — particularly Bush, Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) in the later stages — hit Trump on his business record, including his now-defunct Trump University. But during the primaries, these candidates too often had to allocate precious resources to defend against daily attacks from candidates other than Trump.
“We were not a cash-rich campaign,” said Matt Beynon, a top adviser to GOP candidate Rick Santorum. “We had to make a lot of difficult decisions on how we used our resources.
“Right to Rise and the Bush campaign,” added Beynon, “they had the luxury of a lot of money. They chose to use their opposition research on other candidates … such as Sen. Rubio.”
Even the Bush campaign, however, had to pare back opposition research to save money.
Miller said the Bush campaign had a three-person research team to produce opposition material on 16 candidates. The campaign was firing people and cutting costs from early on. Still, those three produced a book of opposition research on Trump, which Miller said Bush used to hit Trump for his casino dealings.
Miller contrasted the Bush team’s fairly basic opposition research on Trump to the years-long effort required to do serious opposition research. He said the GOP opposition group America Rising, which Miller co-founded, started its Clinton research book in the summer of 2013.
“With Trump, who came out of nowhere to run, you’re building this file as you’re flying the plane,” said Miller.
“Hindsight being 20/20,” Miller added, “obviously, we would’ve spent more time on Trump.”
Miller doesn’t believe Bush would’ve benefited from an early leaking of the “Access Hollywood” tape. It would have been tough to find a Trump voter who had Bush as his second choice. Bush, therefore, had no strategic imperative to call out Trump early, even though he was one of the few candidates who did.
Such calculations get at one of the major reasons Trump’s rivals — who wanted to get down to a one-on-one race against him — didn’t go after the GOP nominee until it was too late.
“There’s a game theory element to this,” Miller said, “where everybody was looking out for their own best interests and nobody’s best interest was to go after Trump ... because each candidate that did end up going after him ended up hurting themselves.”
Cruz spent much of 2015 praising Trump, so his belated attacks didn’t seem authentic. He also had a relatively weak opposition research team.
Similarly, Rubio, who did have a top opposition guy, waited until late February to begin attacking Trump, as he saw no benefits to go after the front-runner earlier. Rubio’s team was fixated on defending against well-funded attack ads from the pro-Bush super PAC Right to Rise.
Trump’s only other serious rival, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, was never going to get into the mud with Trump, as doing so would go against his Christian principles.
“With Dr. Carson, we were never going to attack an opponent,” said Ed Brookover, Carson’s former campaign manager who later worked for Trump.
“No oppo for us.”
Would any of it have worked?
Trump’s rivals were slow to take him seriously and even slower to do serious research into his past.
Still, more than half a dozen sources who worked on Trump’s rival campaigns expressed private doubts that any opposition research would’ve stopped a candidate with such blindly loyal supporters.
Of the Monday morning quarterbacking, so prevalent now in Washington Republican circles, Murphy said, “Mostly it’s rearview mirror sour grapes from rival campaigns that all had millions of their own.” http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/301616-republicans-bristle-at-notion-they-failed-to-vet-trump Of course the other Republicans couldn't take down Trump this year. The reasons he's losing the election and the reason the base like him. He says the openly racist, sexist and transphobic things they're all thinking. Meanwhile cuckservatives who could actually win the middle and the overall election could only hurt themselves with the base by calling out Trump. When you call Trump a racist a large part of the Republican base thinks "but I think that too, are you saying I'm a racist?". And of course the answer is "yes, of course you fucking are" but Rubio can't say that shit.
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On October 19 2016 11:56 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2016 11:04 plasmidghost wrote: I'd really like it if the US could gradually stop allying with Saudi Arabia (or give their citizens the same rights most Western societies have), and under Hillary, that alliance is only going to increase since she's taken loads of money from them in the past That's not how it works. Like at all. Sad but true, it's just a wish
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On October 19 2016 10:58 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2016 10:16 zlefin wrote: I'd like to try an alternate form of government. Maybe some sort of non-election based democracy; but not direct democracy, cuz that's trash. I'm sure we cal all agree here that the system is broken and Clinton will not fix it.She's been part of the problem for years.She benefits from the current system via kickbacks, pork barreling, cushy benefits and a very generous pension scheme. Say what you like about Sanders but i think he could have made some meaningful changes to the system.Trump made huge wealth outside the system so would have no issues shaking up the political system, thats why such pushback from the establishment politicians.
Huh, pork barrelling is a political thing TIL
Generally used in a derogatory manner, the term refers to the practice of politicians trading favors granted to constituents or special interest groups in exchange for political support, such as in the form of votes or campaign contributions.
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source is old
but in case people were wondering why Clinton wasn't charged with perjury and didn't have a real response.
snipped a lot to the summaries but need the rest of the statements for context.
Why Hillary Clinton Will Not be Charged for Lying to Congress — Even Though She Did
As you’ll see, and quite unfortunately for those wishing to see Clinton prosecuted, the law places a high burden on prosecutors to charge someone with perjury and/or lying to Congress. Additionally, prior history shows that the Department of Justice very rarely prosecutes individuals for lying to Congress. Therefore, even though Clinton probably lied to Congress, it is unlikely that she will be charged for perjury.
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Based solely on the statutes and not any political influence, the decision to prosecute Hillary Clinton will come down to a question of her intent and belief at the time she testified before Congress. Most reports indicate that Congress’ referral is focused on at least three of Clinton’s statements: (1) that she did not have any classified material on her server; (2) her claim that there was only one server; and (3) her claim lawyers went through every email in full to determine what was work related.
Although there is much disagreement about his conclusions, Director Comey made it clear during his testimony last week that the FBI did not believe Clinton had the sophistication to understand the classification system. This determination was made based on the FBI’s interview with Clinton on July 2. Accordingly, if the DOJ and FBI determined Clinton did not understand the classification system on July 2, it stands to reason that they will also conclude that she lacked the sophistication to understand the classification system back in October of 2015. Therefore, it would be difficult to see how the DOJ could conclude Clinton knowingly or willfully lied in her responses to Congress with respect to the classification matters.
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... In his statement Comey said, “I have so far used the singular term, ‘e-mail server,’ in describing the referral that began our investigation. It turns out to have been more complicated than that. Secretary Clinton used several different servers and administrators of those servers during her four years at the State Department….”
However, Director Comey also testified about Clinton’s lack of technical sophistication in understanding email technology. Thus, it is arguable that Clinton may not have understood that multiple servers were used during her time at the State Department. It is a little less clear as to whether her response constitutes a reckless disregard for the truth, but the DOJ will likely give her the benefit of the doubt in this circumstance.
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This statement was not true, as Director Comey explained in his statement on July 5. “The lawyers doing the sorting for Secretary Clinton in 2014 did not individually read the content of all of her e-mails, as we did for those available to us; instead, they relied on header information and used search terms to try to find all work-related e-mails…,” Comey said. At the hearing last week, Comey reaffirmed this finding in response to questioning from Congressman Trey Gowdy, stating that her lawyers did not read every email.
The key issue will be whether Clinton knew the statement was false at the time she made it — or if the statement was made with a reckless disregard for the truth. Unlike the statements about the classified material, Director Comey’s testimony does not help Clinton on this issue. That potentially gives prosecutors an opening to go after Clinton on this matter, if they choose to do so.
But here’s the reality: Prosecutors rarely go after individuals for lying to Congress. A Quinnipiac law review article mentioned earlier found only six people have been successfully convicted of lying to Congress between the 1940s and the mid-2000s.
A recent example involving James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), comes to mind. In 2013, DNI Clapper testified that the government does not “wittingly” collect information about millions of Americans. Documents leaked by Edward Snowden appear to directly contradict DNI Clapper’s assertion, but he was never investigated and still hold his position of the nation’s top spy.
As the law review article also suggests, prosecutors and some lawmakers have come to accept that witnesses will lie when testifying before Congress. This acceptance leads to a lack of prosecutions, despite what appears to clear violations of the relevant statutes. And we have all recently seen how past reluctance to apply a specific statue can be used as justification for not charging Hillary Clinton with a crime.
tldr;
Why Hillary Clinton Will Not be Charged for Lying to Congress — Even Though She Did
3 things in question
(1) that she did not have any classified material on her server; (2) her claim that there was only one server; and (3) her claim lawyers went through every email in full to determine what was work related.
why she's not
(1) Director Comey made it clear during his testimony last week that the FBI did not believe Clinton had the sophistication to understand the classification system. (2) arguable that Clinton may not have understood that multiple servers were used during her time at the State Department. (3) The key issue will be whether Clinton knew the statement was false at the time she made it — or if the statement was made with a reckless disregard for the truth.
I don't think (2) is debatable because IMO it's really obvious Hillary is not in touch with technology to that extent.
(1) is a bit weird because it's not clear why the FBI thought she didn't understand the what appears to be a simple system. IMO after reading POLITICO's email summary the classification system was kind of useless and most people just used their best judgment when classifying things. Also easy to skip over what the small c meant when you go through 30K+ emails over a few years.
[Clinton’s close aide Jake Sullivan] told the FBI his experience was that State Department employees “did the best they could to make a sound judgment when handling classified information
[One State Department official, no fan of Hillary Clinton] said he “tried to use his best judgment.”
(3) appears to be something that's hard to prove, but also not really something they care about.
This leaves a sour taste in my mouth, but it doesn't seem like there's enough that defies reason... unless you're already convinced the FBI is corrupt.
There's another point where Hillary claimed she gave all her work-related emails, but the FBI found thousands more that were not returned. I didn't dig into that, but she also didn't sort the email she submitted (her attorneys did), so I'm assuming it's related to that, or the emails deleted when they moved her servers.
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United States42657 Posts
On October 19 2016 12:01 plasmidghost wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2016 11:56 KwarK wrote:On October 19 2016 11:04 plasmidghost wrote: I'd really like it if the US could gradually stop allying with Saudi Arabia (or give their citizens the same rights most Western societies have), and under Hillary, that alliance is only going to increase since she's taken loads of money from them in the past That's not how it works. Like at all. Sad but true, it's just a wish You think Hillary Clinton, multimillionaire President Elect of the United States, is going to reverse her pro-Iran anti-Saudi Arabia policy from the last few years because an individual linked to the Saudi royal family donated $10m to the help Bill Clinton build his library in 1997? Walk me through that logic please. Step by step.
Iranian oil hitting the market since the end of the embargo is costing Saudi Arabia tens of billions. They're in a budget crisis and the only thing staving off the kind of discontent that has overtaken the rest of the Middle East is the constant influx of oil dollars. And Shi'ite Iran is the only serious regional rival to Sunni Saudi Arabia and has just been invited back up to the main stage. If you think Saudi Arabia has been buying influence then I have to ask you, what good has it done them? The last few years have been a catastrophe for them.
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On October 19 2016 12:05 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 19 2016 12:01 plasmidghost wrote:On October 19 2016 11:56 KwarK wrote:On October 19 2016 11:04 plasmidghost wrote: I'd really like it if the US could gradually stop allying with Saudi Arabia (or give their citizens the same rights most Western societies have), and under Hillary, that alliance is only going to increase since she's taken loads of money from them in the past That's not how it works. Like at all. Sad but true, it's just a wish You think Hillary Clinton, multimillionaire President Elect of the United States, is going to reverse her pro-Iran anti-Saudi Arabia policy from the last few years because an individual linked to the Saudi royal family donated $10m to the help Bill Clinton build his library in 1997? Walk me through that logic please. Step by step. Whoa, you need to calm down there. Given how many times Hillary has reversed her position in the past (on building a border fence, on gay marriage, etc.), it wouldn't surprise me. She did say that you have to have a public and private position, so who knows what her actual beliefs are
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The president of Liberty University censored an article critical of Donald Trump, according to the sports editor of the school's official newspaper, the Liberty Champion.
The editor, Joel Schmieg, posted a statement on his Facebook account claiming it was Jerry Falwell Jr., the university's president and a Trump supporter, who spiked the column, which criticized Trump for lewd comments he made on a hot mic during a 2005 taping of "Access Hollywood."
"Yesterday I was told [Falwell] was not allowing me to express my personal opinion in an article I wrote for my weekly column in the Liberty Champion about Trump and his 'locker room talk,'" Schmieg wrote.
"I understand Joel's frustration regarding the situation," Cierra Carter, the opinion editor for the Liberty Champion, told POLITICO. "Our president has been very vocal with his opinions during this election season and we'd like that same privilege."
In his Facebook post, Schmieg poked fun at a statement by Falwell earlier in the week, in which he said: "It is a testament to the fact that Liberty University promotes the free expression of ideas unlike many major universities where political correctness prevents conservative students from speaking out."
"I find these words from Jerry amusing and extremely hypocritical," Schmieg wrote.
Falwell's statement came after a group of students at Liberty University criticized him for defending Trump after the release of the recording, in which the real estate mogul boasted about grabbing women's genitals and getting away with it.
"Any faculty or staff member at Liberty would be terminated for such comments, and yet when Donald Trump makes them, President Falwell rushes eagerly to his defense — taking the name 'Liberty University' with him," the students wrote.
"I think this whole tape … videotape thing was planned, I think it was timed, I think it might have even been a conspiracy among establishment Republicans who have known about it for weeks and who tried to time it to do the maximum damage to Donald Trump, and I just … I just think it just backfired on them," Falwell told radio host Rita Cosby on Oct. 10.
Falwell went on to suggest that the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives was a beneficiary of the leak, despite "Access Hollywood" saying it discovered the recording after digging through the show's archives. "It wasn't a coincidence that it came out right before Trump was supposed to appear with Paul Ryan at a rally, and it conveniently gave Paul Ryan a way to disinvite Trump," Falwell told Cosby.
Schmieg's article is heavily critical of the Republican nominee and his language in the 11-year-old recording, in which Trump described grabbing women "by the p---y."
"This is not locker room talk," Shmieg wrote. "Anyone who says otherwise is just trying to excuse the terrible things they or others have said."
He went on to argue that a high school student would be punished for saying what Trump says in the recording. "When an adult in his late 50's says things like "when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything," that should be a major red flag," he added.
"Donald Trump may have issued an apology for the words he said, but the fact that he can brush them off with a description of 'locker room talk,' tells me that he does not believe what he said is truly bad."
Emails and phone calls asking Liberty University for comment were not immediately returned.
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