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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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Logo
United States7542 Posts
On October 12 2016 00:07 Mohdoo wrote: I think a lot of people struggle with this. Trump with a 17% chance of winning means he can win. They 100% do struggle with it. People call out Nate Silver all the time when his 'predictions' are wrong when he gives someone anything less than 50% odds then it goes that way (like the Trump nomination). | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On October 12 2016 00:07 Mohdoo wrote: I think a lot of people struggle with this. Trump with a 17% chance of winning means he can win. basicly this. Trump has a 16% chance to win according to 538 right now, what does that mean in popular vote? Hillary Clinton 49.1% Donald Trump 43.1% and 25% chance to win is quite a lot more than 16% AND the pic says the chances went down by 17% meaning it was at 42% the day before that? | ||
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Logo
United States7542 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) praised Donald Trump as a leader who would "show some authoritarian power" on Tuesday, even as he slammed President Barack Obama as an "autocrat." "We need a Donald Trump to show some authoritarian power in our country and bring back the rule of law," LePage said in an interview with Maine radio station WVOM. He went on to compare Trump to Obama, decrying the President as "an autocrat" who ignores Congress and "just does it on his own." As Maine's Sun Journal newspaper noted, the dictionary defines "autocrat" as a person who behaves in an authoritarian manner. LePage was seemingly unconcerned by Trump’s comments about forcing himself on women in a 2005 video that resurfaced last week, but conceded that Trump is not the "ideal guy I'd want my daughter going after.” Lauren LePage, the Maine governor’s daughter, was hired in August by the Trump campaign as state coalitions director. Source | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On October 12 2016 00:25 Logo wrote: More people need to play Roguelikes :D. Playing a character for several hours then losing them on a <5% chance roll will, over time, teach you just how often small odds happen when you run enough trials. Probabilities of an event that happens only once are a wee bit different even in theory than something you can run many times in a row. In this specific case it's not really random chance but more so a measure of the degree of belief based on the data and underlying assumptions. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32748 Posts
In a Congress that's never been as divisive and incapable of compromise and cooperation? | ||
KwarK
United States44013 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18296 Posts
Do these people even listen to themselves? We need a real autocrat to take over from this disgusting guy we have now, who is a real autocrat, I tell you! | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On October 12 2016 00:31 LegalLord wrote: Someone really should keep Trump on a Twitter-free leash. You assume that he listens to anyone or they have the ability to do that. They can’t even take his phone away. That is how little self restraint the man has. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18296 Posts
On October 12 2016 00:28 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: https://twitter.com/tamarakeithNPR/status/785861346919342081 Trump meltdowns are invariably hilarious. The only thing that could have made this better were if this happened at 3am again. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32748 Posts
On October 12 2016 00:33 Plansix wrote: You assume that he listens to anyone or they have the ability to do that. They can’t even take his phone away. That is how little self restraint the man has. Being surrounded by yes men his entire life, I doubt he knows what self-control really is. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On October 12 2016 00:31 LegalLord wrote: Someone really should keep Trump on a Twitter-free leash. Conway was doing so for a while I think-that three-week stretch where the polls narrowed. But I think Bannon has completely taken her place in the Trump Tower castle and Bannon wants Trump to be Trump. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On October 12 2016 00:37 TheTenthDoc wrote: Conway was doing so for a while I think-that three-week stretch where the polls narrowed. But I think Bannon has completely taken her place in the Trump Tower castle and Bannon wants Trump to be Trump. I think Bannon wants Trump to be a martyr and to yell about the alt-right cause as much as possible. | ||
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zeo
Serbia6342 Posts
On October 12 2016 00:00 Plansix wrote: My favorite part is that you don’t provide links, so we can’t even check where that came from. The polls showed the vote to be close for the Brexit, even if people didn’t believe it. And most of the predictions for how the election will go are based on polling data. The website is https://electionbettingodds.com On October 12 2016 00:06 kwizach wrote: Do you want to bet money on the result of the presidential election? I think you have a gambling problem. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
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