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On October 12 2016 01:30 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2016 01:16 Plansix wrote:
And now we watch the final stage of the story, where Bannon tries to destroy the GOP as best he can so he can soak up all the remaining supporters in some sort of xenophobic, populist party. I can’t say I am thrilled, since they have zero respect for government, the rule of law, civil rights or democracy as a whole.
But maybe Republicans will find footing and gain a spine. But that requires them standing with the Democrats. Sounds like the perfect situation to me. Bannon destroys the GOP. The nutters go to whatever Breitbart party he creates and the sane Republicans go back to doing their job. And the FPTP system helps to keep the nutters forever out of power. What more could you want?
Those republicans will turncoat into democrats, and then you have a one party system.
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On October 12 2016 01:41 Madkipz wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2016 01:30 Gorsameth wrote:On October 12 2016 01:16 Plansix wrote:
And now we watch the final stage of the story, where Bannon tries to destroy the GOP as best he can so he can soak up all the remaining supporters in some sort of xenophobic, populist party. I can’t say I am thrilled, since they have zero respect for government, the rule of law, civil rights or democracy as a whole.
But maybe Republicans will find footing and gain a spine. But that requires them standing with the Democrats. Sounds like the perfect situation to me. Bannon destroys the GOP. The nutters go to whatever Breitbart party he creates and the sane Republicans go back to doing their job. And the FPTP system helps to keep the nutters forever out of power. What more could you want? Those republicans will turncoat into democrats, and then you have a one party system.
They will be fine. People forget that the Democrats controlled congress for 4 decades after world war 2 and the system worked. But that was back when the house and senate were at war with each other at all times.
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On October 12 2016 00:39 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2016 00:00 Plansix wrote:
My favorite part is that you don’t provide links, so we can’t even check where that came from. The polls showed the vote to be close for the Brexit, even if people didn’t believe it. And most of the predictions for how the election will go are based on polling data. The website is https://electionbettingodds.com Show nested quote +On October 12 2016 00:06 kwizach wrote:
Do you want to bet money on the result of the presidential election? I think you have a gambling problem.
No, he just thinks your defiance of logic is amusing. Hey, if it comes up, I'd totally wager $100 on this election. We could discuss odds if you are less confident of Putin's puppet than you think you are.
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On October 12 2016 01:41 Madkipz wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2016 01:30 Gorsameth wrote:On October 12 2016 01:16 Plansix wrote:
And now we watch the final stage of the story, where Bannon tries to destroy the GOP as best he can so he can soak up all the remaining supporters in some sort of xenophobic, populist party. I can’t say I am thrilled, since they have zero respect for government, the rule of law, civil rights or democracy as a whole.
But maybe Republicans will find footing and gain a spine. But that requires them standing with the Democrats. Sounds like the perfect situation to me. Bannon destroys the GOP. The nutters go to whatever Breitbart party he creates and the sane Republicans go back to doing their job. And the FPTP system helps to keep the nutters forever out of power. What more could you want? Those republicans will turncoat into democrats, and then you have a one party system.
No they won't.
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On October 11 2016 23:57 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2016 23:50 Dan HH wrote:On October 11 2016 16:40 zeo wrote:
It must have been a pretty wild ride these past few days for some of you guys. From triumphant proclamations of the demise of Trump, he's finished, done for, people are leaving the building - to hysterical 'b-b-but what about the boogie man?' for the last 4 pages.
What a time to be alive. How trapped into the post truth bubble do you have to be to smugly and unironically make such an observation? If you'd stick your head out of the alt-retard blogosphere for one moment you'd see that on any aggregator or betting site her odds are at 80% or higher. They've been going only up for a few weeks and we've only seen a few polls from after the tape (with massive swings in Clinton's favor), the full effect will be seen in 3 or so days. But don't fret, it will be difficult for him to go below 10% chances, as he gets closer to virtually having no chance it takes an exponential amount of idiocy and/or scandals to lower further. Your aggregator and betting odd sites a day before Brexit: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/WXkwODm.png)
No shit someone with 1/10 or 1/4 odds can win, they aren't exactly astronomical odds. But that has nothing to do with your claim that people went from thinking Trump is done to being hysterical about a Trump win, when in reality his chances both in the public opinion and in aggregators went only down and will continue to do so for at least a few more days until most pollsters have published one after the tape. I say this even though I do wish you were right about the public opinion part, for reasons that I've outlined here, though I'd only be lying to myself if I were to agree: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/general/383301-us-politics-mega-thread?page=5378#107545
But since you brought Brexit up and the_donald types always cling to this when Trump is doing bad in polls, I'll explain something about polls so you don't get your hopes up higher than you should based on odds alone. Basic opinion polls are simple, you just have to match your sampling with demographic proportions of the general population such as age/sex/ethnicity/religion sometimes only a few categories, sometimes several, depends on what is relevant to the question and how serious the pollster is about it.
Electoral polls are much trickier because there's a huge difference between the demographics of the general population and the demographics of the people that will vote. So the proportions in your sample should match that of likely voters, rather than that of the general population, for its results to be accurate.
To determine likely voters you have to estimate turnout among each relevant demographic. The problem with that is that you can't just ask people about it, intention to vote is one of the things that people lie about the most. This is when past results come into play, the easiest way to create a good sample is by using demographic data from the results of past elections, with some small adjustments based on the apparent differences between the current and past elections (such as black turnout expected to be lower in this election than in the previous two for example).
Brexit didn't have a 'previous', the sampling for polls involved a lot more guesswork and no proper baseline. Hell, they didn't even do any exit polls precisely because without having this previous information, it would have been very easy to get the wrong result and claim the wrong side won before the count. This is why when the_donald types say polls don't matter because of Brexit they are deluding themselves, they stress the similarities between themselves and leavers while turning a blind eye to the glaring issue with Brexit polls which is not present in the US election polls.
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On October 12 2016 01:39 Plansix wrote:
I am not excited about an offshoot party that is powered by pure xenophobia and conspiracy theories having any place level of popularity in the US goverment system. That is a scary thing to have on your doorstep, one charismatic leader away from power.
Of course, they will likely implode. But until then the discourse in this country will be garbage
You could put all the bad people into camps. Concentrate them on one spot, you know? Maybe you can then find a final solution to your problem.
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On October 12 2016 01:46 RoomOfMush wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2016 01:39 Plansix wrote:
I am not excited about an offshoot party that is powered by pure xenophobia and conspiracy theories having any place level of popularity in the US goverment system. That is a scary thing to have on your doorstep, one charismatic leader away from power.
Of course, they will likely implode. But until then the discourse in this country will be garbage You could put all the bad people into camps. Concentrate them on one spot, you know? Maybe you can then find a final solution to your problem.
This bait is low grade and pretty shit. One might call it a shit post.
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United States42609 Posts
On October 12 2016 01:41 Madkipz wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2016 01:30 Gorsameth wrote:On October 12 2016 01:16 Plansix wrote:
And now we watch the final stage of the story, where Bannon tries to destroy the GOP as best he can so he can soak up all the remaining supporters in some sort of xenophobic, populist party. I can’t say I am thrilled, since they have zero respect for government, the rule of law, civil rights or democracy as a whole.
But maybe Republicans will find footing and gain a spine. But that requires them standing with the Democrats. Sounds like the perfect situation to me. Bannon destroys the GOP. The nutters go to whatever Breitbart party he creates and the sane Republicans go back to doing their job. And the FPTP system helps to keep the nutters forever out of power. What more could you want? Those republicans will turncoat into democrats, and then you have a one party system.
Except you don't because the democrats are a multiparty coalition that votes together once it decides a platform in order to defeat the other multiparty coalition they dislike more than they dislike each other. Take away the Republicans and the Democrats will fracture into two parties. There will always be two parties.
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I feel like people are so desperate to keep this race as a 'close' one (for ratings of course) that they're flying off the handle at anything that could help it be that way.
There's plenty of legitimate things to criticize Hillary for, I don't get why people constantly resort to grasping at these straws.
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Yes that entirely looks like the DoJ talking to the Hillary camp to ensure they release the emails as order to be the judge.
I'm sure that is weird in whatever reality you live in but to the 'normal' world there is nothing to see here.
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All of that is public information. A status review hearing isn't secret. The case involves Hillary Clinton, so she gets to know when hearings take place. Like really?
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Wait... did this guy fly off to post 'a smoking gun'' only to then have to correct his statement into how it actually makes perfect sense once he stopping being desperate for any news worth reporting on?
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On October 12 2016 01:39 Plansix wrote:
I am not excited about an offshoot party that is powered by pure xenophobia and conspiracy theories having any place level of popularity in the US goverment system. That is a scary thing to have on your doorstep, one charismatic leader away from power.
Of course, they will likely implode. But until then the discourse in this country will be garbage
What about this election makes you think we arent already there?
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+ Show Spoiler +
I like that hes using 'locker room talk' repeatedly as his defense for tape. wonder how conway feels about that
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On October 12 2016 01:54 Trainrunnef wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2016 01:39 Plansix wrote:
I am not excited about an offshoot party that is powered by pure xenophobia and conspiracy theories having any place level of popularity in the US goverment system. That is a scary thing to have on your doorstep, one charismatic leader away from power.
Of course, they will likely implode. But until then the discourse in this country will be garbage What about this election makes you think we arent already there?
My grandfather was a Republican until the Bush took us to war and spent money like he was going to win a prize. I’m not ready to write off the entire party. There are good people in the Republicans party that can be solid on the idea that the Democrats are not evil.
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On October 12 2016 01:53 Gorsameth wrote:Yes that entirely looks like the DoJ talking to the Hillary camp to ensure they release the emails as order to be the judge. I'm sure that is weird in whatever reality you live in but to the 'normal' world there is nothing to see here.
I'm sure you think only people that support whatever World view you subscribe to are normal, good for you.
I just posted the tweet, read into it however you want.
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Yawn, contact me once a Wikileaks tweet actually reveals something worthwhile about Hillary. So far I'm getting absolutely nothing major out of them except seeing certain types of people go insane over nothing because they have "leaks" attached to them and are about Hillary.
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On October 12 2016 01:57 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Yawn, contact me once a Wikileaks tweet actually reveals something worthwhile about Hillary. So far I'm getting absolutely nothing major out of them except seeing certain types of people go insane over nothing because they have "leaks" attached to them and are about Hillary.
"We have private information, there must be terrible things in here. Why else would it be private?" - The internet - the place where we are desperate to protect our privacy.
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lol, his staff should have changed his twitter password without telling him after the Machado thing and they'd have no more meltdowns on their hands
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EPT
