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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3049

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States44319 Posts
February 26 2016 04:20 GMT
#60961
On February 26 2016 13:19 Draconicfire wrote:
First time watching an American political debate.

That was uh, interesting.


You've seen the worst of the worst haha
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23224 Posts
February 26 2016 04:23 GMT
#60962
Today's water is wet story:

TV Pundits Praise Hillary Clinton On Air, Fail to Disclose Financial Ties to Her Campaign


Source
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
kwizach
Profile Joined June 2011
3658 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-02-26 04:32:27
February 26 2016 04:26 GMT
#60963
...aaaand GH's back to his Hillary bashing.

We could instead go back to what I posted before the debate:

Christina D. Romer (Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2009 to 2010) and David H. Romer (Professor of Economics at Berkeley) have released an analysis of Friedman's work on Sanders' policies.
The bottom line of our evaluation of Professor Friedman’s analysis is that it is highly deficient. The estimated demand-induced effects of Senator Sanders’s policies are not just implausibly large but literally incredible. Moreover, even if they were not deeply flawed, Freidman’s enormous estimates of demand-fueled growth could not and would not come to pass. Even very generous estimates of the amount of slack still present in the American economy would not be enough to accommodate demand-driven growth of anything near what Friedman is estimating. As a result, inflation would soar and monetary policy would swing strongly to counteract them. Finally, a realistic evaluation of the impact of Senator Sanders’s policies on productive capacity (something that is neglected in Friedman’s analysis) suggests that those impacts are likely small and possibly negative.Though we have been frankly critical of Professor Friedman’s analysis, he has provided a service to public debate by posting his analysis so that other economists can evaluate its validity. We are posting our evaluation in the same spirit.

Source (.pdf)
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions." -- Stephen Colbert
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
February 26 2016 04:28 GMT
#60964
Its all he will have soon. Sanders doesn't have much more time.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23224 Posts
February 26 2016 04:34 GMT
#60965
Truth = Hillary bashing

Her campaign in a nutshell
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Hexe
Profile Joined August 2014
United States332 Posts
February 26 2016 04:37 GMT
#60966
She has one good point though. Sanders is a one trick pony candidate.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23224 Posts
February 26 2016 05:10 GMT
#60967
On February 26 2016 13:37 Hexe wrote:
She has one good point though. Sanders is a one trick pony candidate.


Yeah the one trick just happens to be wanting the best for the American people the country/government can provide. It's a pretty good trick.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
February 26 2016 05:13 GMT
#60968
The most interesting line from the debate tonight was Trump saying that he wants to "remake" the Republican Party. I'm sure that it's completely unsurprising to anyone who has been paying attention, but I expect that it will draw some fire from conservatives tomorrow. That said, I don't think that the Republican base is really going to care.
Hexe
Profile Joined August 2014
United States332 Posts
February 26 2016 05:14 GMT
#60969
government can provide? socialist fiend
kwizach
Profile Joined June 2011
3658 Posts
February 26 2016 05:21 GMT
#60970
xDaunt, you've never actually answered this question: among the five people on stage, who would you like to see become president?
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions." -- Stephen Colbert
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
February 26 2016 05:24 GMT
#60971
On February 26 2016 14:21 kwizach wrote:
xDaunt, you've never actually answered this question: among the five people on stage, who would you like to see become president?

I haven't made up my mind as to who my preferred candidate is.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23224 Posts
February 26 2016 05:33 GMT
#60972
On February 26 2016 14:14 Hexe wrote:
government can provide? socialist fiend


Yeah, Anarchy Rules!
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
ErectedZenith
Profile Joined January 2016
325 Posts
February 26 2016 05:33 GMT
#60973
On February 26 2016 13:26 kwizach wrote:
...aaaand GH's back to his Hillary bashing.

We could instead go back to what I posted before the debate:

Christina D. Romer (Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2009 to 2010) and David H. Romer (Professor of Economics at Berkeley) have released an analysis of Friedman's work on Sanders' policies.
Show nested quote +
The bottom line of our evaluation of Professor Friedman’s analysis is that it is highly deficient. The estimated demand-induced effects of Senator Sanders’s policies are not just implausibly large but literally incredible. Moreover, even if they were not deeply flawed, Freidman’s enormous estimates of demand-fueled growth could not and would not come to pass. Even very generous estimates of the amount of slack still present in the American economy would not be enough to accommodate demand-driven growth of anything near what Friedman is estimating. As a result, inflation would soar and monetary policy would swing strongly to counteract them. Finally, a realistic evaluation of the impact of Senator Sanders’s policies on productive capacity (something that is neglected in Friedman’s analysis) suggests that those impacts are likely small and possibly negative.Though we have been frankly critical of Professor Friedman’s analysis, he has provided a service to public debate by posting his analysis so that other economists can evaluate its validity. We are posting our evaluation in the same spirit.

Source (.pdf)


Nothing wrong with Hillary bashing when she deserves it.
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-02-26 06:31:24
February 26 2016 06:26 GMT
#60974
On February 26 2016 13:26 kwizach wrote:
...aaaand GH's back to his Hillary bashing.

We could instead go back to what I posted before the debate:

Christina D. Romer (Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2009 to 2010) and David H. Romer (Professor of Economics at Berkeley) have released an analysis of Friedman's work on Sanders' policies.
Show nested quote +
The bottom line of our evaluation of Professor Friedman’s analysis is that it is highly deficient. The estimated demand-induced effects of Senator Sanders’s policies are not just implausibly large but literally incredible. Moreover, even if they were not deeply flawed, Freidman’s enormous estimates of demand-fueled growth could not and would not come to pass. Even very generous estimates of the amount of slack still present in the American economy would not be enough to accommodate demand-driven growth of anything near what Friedman is estimating. As a result, inflation would soar and monetary policy would swing strongly to counteract them. Finally, a realistic evaluation of the impact of Senator Sanders’s policies on productive capacity (something that is neglected in Friedman’s analysis) suggests that those impacts are likely small and possibly negative.Though we have been frankly critical of Professor Friedman’s analysis, he has provided a service to public debate by posting his analysis so that other economists can evaluate its validity. We are posting our evaluation in the same spirit.

Source (.pdf)


This is a couple of economists making a couple of wild assumptions about another economist's wild assumptions. So, for example, their first point is that the spending fades after the first year. That's easily fixable. And so on, and so on. I for one put almost zero stock in Bernie's proposed "plan" as such because I don't think it matters. The direction is what matters, the rest is just details, and none of these critiques address the possibilities, mostly because their own tools are deficient.

Why are we discussing this like it's Science with Theories that give us Answers? Predicting economic output in 2026 is like predicting the weather in 2026.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-02-26 06:38:54
February 26 2016 06:38 GMT
#60975
On February 26 2016 10:50 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2016 10:42 kwizach wrote:
On February 26 2016 10:39 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
On February 26 2016 10:29 kwizach wrote:
Christina D. Romer (Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2009 to 2010) and David H. Romer (Professor of Economics at Berkeley) have released an analysis of Friedman's work on Sanders' policies.
The bottom line of our evaluation of Professor Friedman’s analysis is that it is highly deficient. The estimated demand-induced effects of Senator Sanders’s policies are not just implausibly large but literally incredible. Moreover, even if they were not deeply flawed, Freidman’s enormous estimates of demand-fueled growth could not and would not come to pass. Even very generous estimates of the amount of slack still present in the American economy would not be enough to accommodate demand-driven growth of anything near what Friedman is estimating. As a result, inflation would soar and monetary policy would swing strongly to counteract them. Finally, a realistic evaluation of the impact of Senator Sanders’s policies on productive capacity (something that is neglected in Friedman’s analysis) suggests that those impacts are likely small and possibly negative.Though we have been frankly critical of Professor Friedman’s analysis, he has provided a service to public debate by posting his analysis so that other economists can evaluate its validity. We are posting our evaluation in the same spirit.

Source (.pdf)


I have been trying to say this to my Team-Bernie Facebook friends. They seem resistant to the evidence. Sanders may have a nice message, but the meat isn't there on his plans. Democrats can't afford to run on stuff that own't even work in theory.

I agree completely. It's frustrating because we are all critical of Republicans when their numbers don't add up, and I don't see a reason for not holding Democrats to the same standards, even when we strongly agree with their objectives. Otherwise we're no better than the opposition.


It didn't end well when I started pasting in the charts. They ended up running to the argument that they didn't understand it, so why should the Average Voter understand it? Thus it doesn't matter right? If you are engaged enough in politics to learn about Bernie, you ought also be engaged enough in politics to wonder if his plans are functional. I feel like this is just lethal to Bernie though. His big meme is addressing income inequality in America. Thus his plan on addressing it needs to be airtight.


For people who like charts this is a good one:

[image loading]

Why do you put so much stock in Romer's analysis?
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
February 26 2016 07:09 GMT
#60976
the projections are not great leap level but still rather incredible esp given the kinds of things proposed. romer did not have to do much to that one
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
February 26 2016 07:10 GMT
#60977
No worse than Romer's projections in 2010-2011.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-02-26 07:15:16
February 26 2016 07:14 GMT
#60978
you mean the stimulus? it worked well for what it was or are you not recognizing the negative baseline


again are you really hanging onto this idea that all 'standard model' is the same. answer is no
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-02-26 07:23:12
February 26 2016 07:21 GMT
#60979
I don't think it's all the same. I think it's all a crapshoot.

And I'm not criticizing the stimulus per se. I'm criticizing a consistent 5% projection that never materialized. It's not the same, but it's funny that Bernie's (Friedman's) projection was ~5% and now that's outlandish.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
Soap
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Brazil1546 Posts
February 26 2016 10:02 GMT
#60980
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