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On December 06 2015 17:54 KwarK wrote:
Count the number of counties in the United States. Then calculate the probability that one will correctly guess 30 of 32 coinflips (although the selection of 1888 as a start date is confusing too, I'm assuming they got it wrong in 1884 so the cutoff was set at 1888 to skew the numbers). You can use those to see if this county is a magic psychic octopus that can pick world cup results, or if it's simply the result of the rule of large numbers.
And, as pointed out, their support right now is irrelevant to the election a year from now. It doesn't make any difference unless the county also happened to support the winning candidate a year early each election (except for the ones they got wrong).
Maths for this:
p(N=30) = (32 over 30)* 0.5^32=1,15*10^-7
p(N>=30) = sum(i=30 until i=32) (32 over i) * 0.5^32=1.23*10^-7, or about 1 in 8 million
There are only about 3000 counties in the US.
Thus, it can safely be concluded that this county is a lot better than a coinflip at predicting presidents. Please do the maths before arguing with the maths. I get roughly reasonable values at a prediction accuracy of 0.7, leading to an about 1 in 1000 chance to have picked 30 out of 32 correctly.
However, it should also not be forgotten that the average county should be better than 0.5 at selecting a president, as the president tends to be the person that gets selected by the most people, with some additional quirks in the system.
Your other point is still relevant, though. You can't go "x is a good indicator of y, and b looks kinda similar to x and might even be losely correlated, thus b is a good indicator of y", that is just horribly bad science.
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Now Trump's got you talking about maths. A genius.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
but that county would also vote for jim webb before all other candidates. the loonies in the dem party drove him out tho
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Supporting ISIS is not a crime.
He was known to be a threat?
What is the point
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On December 07 2015 05:52 Gorsameth wrote:
Supporting ISIS is not a crime.
He was known to be a threat?
What is the point
I think the point is to report suspicious activity to authorities, especially if your god damn son supports ISIS. There had to be other red flags as well. Don't ya think?
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On December 07 2015 05:57 Eskendereya wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 05:52 Gorsameth wrote:
Supporting ISIS is not a crime.
He was known to be a threat?
What is the point I think the point is to report suspicious activity to authorities, especially if your god damn son supports ISIS. There had to be other red flags as well. Don't ya think?
If it would be so easy we wouldn't have people shooting stuff to pulp every other week. Surely the parents of school shooters should have noticed something as well?
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So does Trump's advocating for bringing back torture, and going after terrorist's families mean he has already implicitly suggested we torture Farook's family whether they are American or not?
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On December 07 2015 05:57 Eskendereya wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 05:52 Gorsameth wrote:
Supporting ISIS is not a crime.
He was known to be a threat?
What is the point I think the point is to report suspicious activity to authorities, especially if your god damn son supports ISIS. There had to be other red flags as well. Don't ya think?
No your not required to report ISIS supporters to the authorities because supporting ISIS is not a crime.
I believe he was known to be a threat by intelligence anyway?
Again, what exactly is your point here.
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Trump is going to win the nomination so easily,think he will also beat Clinton in the end.
At least he is the only candidate that would have a shot at it. Hope he wins as well,even though I like democratic policys better in general. Wonder who he will run with as 2nd,cruz would be a bad choise and don't think trump would want to,carson would be good but also seems a bit unlikely. Palin is best fit for him I think but not sure how feasonable that will be.
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On December 06 2015 15:28 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +Erika Christakis, the faculty member at the center of a racially charged debate at Yale, has decided not to teach at the Ivy League school going forward.
"I will not be teaching at Yale in the future," she told Business Insider in an email Thursday.
Christakis' decision came after weeks of backlash against the lecturer and administrator over an email she sent to students suggesting that Yale shouldn't tell them not to wear offensive Halloween costumes. Show nested quote +When I was young, adults were freaked out by the specter of Halloween candy poisoned by lunatics, or spiked with razor blades (despite the absence of a single recorded case of such an event). Now, we’ve grown to fear the sugary candy itself. And this year, we seem afraid that college students are unable to decide how to dress themselves on Halloween.
I don’t wish to trivialize genuine concerns about cultural and personal representation, and other challenges to our lived experience in a plural community. I know that many decent people have proposed guidelines on Halloween costumes from a spirit of avoiding hurt and offense. I laud those goals, in theory, as most of us do. But in practice, I wonder if we should reflect more transparently, as a community, on the consequences of an institutional (which is to say: bureaucratic and administrative) exercise of implied control over college students.
It seems to me that we can have this discussion of costumes on many levels: we can talk about complex issues of identify, free speech, cultural appropriation, and virtue “signaling.” But I wanted to share my thoughts with you from a totally different angle, as an educator concerned with the developmental stages of childhood and young adulthood.
As a former preschool teacher, for example, it is hard for me to give credence to a claim that there is something objectionably “appropriative” about a blonde-haired child’s wanting to be Mulan for a day. Pretend play is the foundation of most cognitive tasks, and it seems to me that we want to be in the business of encouraging the exercise of imagination, not constraining it. I suppose we could agree that there is a difference between fantasizing about an individual character vs. appropriating a culture, wholesale, the latter of which could be seen as (tacky)(offensive)(jejeune)(hurtful), take your pick. But, then, I wonder what is the statute of limitations on dreaming of dressing as Tiana the Frog Princess if you aren’t a black girl from New Orleans? Is it okay if you are eight, but not 18? I don’t know the answer to these questions; they seem unanswerable. Or at the least, they put us on slippery terrain that I, for one, prefer not to cross.
Which is my point. I don’t, actually, trust myself to foist my Halloweenish standards and motives on others. I can’t defend them anymore than you could defend yours. Why do we dress up on Halloween, anyway? Should we start explaining that too? I’ve always been a good mimic and I enjoy accents. I love to travel, too, and have been to every continent but Antarctica. When I lived in Bangladesh, I bought a sari because it was beautiful, even though I looked stupid in it and never wore it once. Am I fetishizing and appropriating others’ cultural experiences? Probably. But I really, really like them too. Business InsiderI thought the letter, which I've excerpted some of, was an introspective and brave piece. Now the backlash was too much for her to endure. We had the discussion on appropriate/inappropriate costumes not too long ago. This is some very real consequences for an academic investigating what the holiday means in an honest letter with abundant good faith.
This makes me fucking mad. And sad. What a world we live in-- a bunch of entitled brats with less than mediocre reading comprehension and massive persecution complexes win against a professor with more intelligence and introspection in her fingernail clippings. Yell loud enough and it seems you can get what you want. That this can happen is a fucking travesty, and Yale is that much poorer for losing her.
Also every time I read about shit like this happening at Yale, Harvard, etc. I'm slightly salty. Like seriously, how did I not get into Yale when these guys did?
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Say what you want but if what's quoted in that link is true the Dad should have clearly reported him. This is pretty classy comming from him as well, assuming true:
“I told him he had to stay calm and be patient because in two years Israel will not exist any more. Geopolitics is changing: Russia, China and America don’t want Jews there any more,”
Trump is obviously still an idiot for saying that you have to kill those people or whatever it is he's implying.
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On December 07 2015 06:00 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 05:57 Eskendereya wrote:On December 07 2015 05:52 Gorsameth wrote:
Supporting ISIS is not a crime.
He was known to be a threat?
What is the point I think the point is to report suspicious activity to authorities, especially if your god damn son supports ISIS. There had to be other red flags as well. Don't ya think? If it would be so easy we wouldn't have people shooting stuff to pulp every other week. Surely the parents of school shooters should have noticed something as well?
Difference is %99 of those kids who do those school shootings are already seeking help from psychiatrists and are on medication. Their problems are already trying to be addressed.
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Some good news:
Former President Jimmy Carter said Sunday his cancer is gone.
Carter said in a statement that his most recent MRI brain scan did not reveal any signs of the original cancer spots or any new ones and that he’ll continue his treatment.
Carter, 91, initially made the announcement near the beginning of the Sunday School class he was teaching at Maranatha Baptist Church in Plains, a close friend and fellow church member said.
“He said he got a scan this week and the cancer was gone,” Jill Stuckey said by phone from Maranatha, where Carter was still in the midst of teaching to about 350 people, many of them visitors. “The church, everybody here, just erupted in applause.”
Source (AJC)
Politics is so bad it gave me cancer, but it's okay I got over it.
Can't stop, won't stop swag swag motherfuckers
-Jimmy Carter
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On December 07 2015 06:02 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 05:57 Eskendereya wrote:On December 07 2015 05:52 Gorsameth wrote:
Supporting ISIS is not a crime.
He was known to be a threat?
What is the point I think the point is to report suspicious activity to authorities, especially if your god damn son supports ISIS. There had to be other red flags as well. Don't ya think? No your not required to report ISIS supporters to the authorities because supporting ISIS is not a crime. I believe he was known to be a threat by intelligence anyway? Again, what exactly is your point here.
Have you read the articles I linked? Clearly there were red flags with this guy, point is people should start reporting suspicious activity and red flags to authorities so they can check up on them. If they don't find anything then that's fine, but at least you give authorities the chance to investigate and see if there's anything strange going on.
The guy's apartment was littered with pipe bombs, guns and thousands of rounds of ammunition and who knows what else that hasn't come out yet.
Also, the guy told his father he supported ISIS... Do you know what ISIS is? If someone told me they supported ISIS, especially a family member, I'd think they're batshit crazy and I would report them to authorities, regardless if it leads anywhere. You realize ISIS is a terrorist organization right...?
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On December 07 2015 06:01 GreenHorizons wrote:So does Trump's advocating for bringing back torture, and going after terrorist's families mean he has already implicitly suggested we torture Farook's family whether they are American or not?
Torture for ISIS type groups who cut peoples heads off with 6 inch knives, burn people alive, torture them in the most gruesome ways possible, is anyone really going to lose sleep over it?
Google "ISIS beheadings" and "ISIS child soldiers" who they train to behead and execute their victims.
He's talking about terrorists and their families in the middle east, clearly if you're an American you are protected by the constitution and go through the legal system here.
ISIS and ISIS type groups' families in the middle east are radicalized, I think if you want to destroy ISIS you have to take them all out whether you like it or not. War is terrible but there's no other way.
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Sometimes, i don't even. Honestly.
Are you a troll? Next to being a flat out liar, obviously?
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On December 07 2015 06:34 m4ini wrote:
Sometimes, i don't even. Honestly.
Are you a troll? Next to being a flat out liar, obviously?
Are you talking to me? Why don't you elaborate what I'm 'flat out lying about'.
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On December 07 2015 06:25 Eskendereya wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 06:01 GreenHorizons wrote:So does Trump's advocating for bringing back torture, and going after terrorist's families mean he has already implicitly suggested we torture Farook's family whether they are American or not? Torture for ISIS type groups who cut peoples heads off with 6 inch knives, burn people alive, torture them in the most gruesome ways possible, is anyone really going to lose sleep over it? Google "ISIS beheadings" and "ISIS child soldiers" who they train to behead and execute their victims. He's talking about terrorists and their families in the middle east, clearly if you're an American you are protected by the constitution and go through the legal system here. ISIS and ISIS type groups' families in the middle east are radicalized, I think if you want to destroy ISIS you have to take them all out whether you like it or not. War is terrible but there's no other way.
and this is were you actually become compareable to North Korea.
And the last phrase takes it even one step further saying genocide should be performed...
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On December 07 2015 06:19 Eskendereya wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 06:00 Nyxisto wrote:On December 07 2015 05:57 Eskendereya wrote:On December 07 2015 05:52 Gorsameth wrote:
Supporting ISIS is not a crime.
He was known to be a threat?
What is the point I think the point is to report suspicious activity to authorities, especially if your god damn son supports ISIS. There had to be other red flags as well. Don't ya think? If it would be so easy we wouldn't have people shooting stuff to pulp every other week. Surely the parents of school shooters should have noticed something as well? Difference is %99 of those kids who do those school shootings are already seeking help from psychiatrists and are on medication. Their problems are already trying to be addressed.
I'm pretty sure you just made that number up
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EPT
