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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On August 29 2014 14:30 coverpunch wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2014 12:44 Sub40APM wrote:On August 29 2014 10:35 jellyjello wrote:On August 29 2014 06:13 Sub40APM wrote:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/08/27/yes-obamacare-is-cutting-the-deficit/?tid=rssfeedTo start things off, the CBO says the deficit this year will be $506 billion, or 2.9 percent of GDP. In 2013 it was $680 billion, so that’s a pretty steep drop. And in terms of GDP, not only is that slightly lower than the average deficit of the last 40 years (3.1 percent), it’s also a 70 percent decline from Obama’s first year in office, where because of the Great Recession, which brought both the need for more spending and a plunge in tax revenues, the deficit peaked at 9.8 percent of GDP. But but but the Negro Communist Muslim Infiltrator was going to bankrupt America! Ever bothered to read the rest of the CBO report? Particularly concerning the assertion that the national debt will continue to soar due in part to Obamacare? Yes, way to move the goal posts. First Obama care was supposed to bankrupt America within his presidency while at the same time completely failing. Now it will bankrupt America sometime in the distant future. But hey, as long as you believe then what do you need facts for, anyone can prove anything with facts! To be fair, Obama was supposed to Hope and Change all our problems away into a V-shaped recovery so that right now all Americans would have health care, the economy would be buzzing, unemployment would be back below 5%, the deficit would be a surplus paying down the national debt, and everyone in the world would love Americans so much that they'd stop fighting wars with other people. Most importantly, politics in Washington would be clean, fair, and bipartisan. Now the rallying cry is "everything would be better if it weren't for Republicans with their obstructionism and dirty Koch money". sheer naivete is not the proper standard for setting expectations.
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On August 29 2014 14:30 coverpunch wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2014 12:44 Sub40APM wrote:On August 29 2014 10:35 jellyjello wrote:On August 29 2014 06:13 Sub40APM wrote:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/08/27/yes-obamacare-is-cutting-the-deficit/?tid=rssfeedTo start things off, the CBO says the deficit this year will be $506 billion, or 2.9 percent of GDP. In 2013 it was $680 billion, so that’s a pretty steep drop. And in terms of GDP, not only is that slightly lower than the average deficit of the last 40 years (3.1 percent), it’s also a 70 percent decline from Obama’s first year in office, where because of the Great Recession, which brought both the need for more spending and a plunge in tax revenues, the deficit peaked at 9.8 percent of GDP. But but but the Negro Communist Muslim Infiltrator was going to bankrupt America! Ever bothered to read the rest of the CBO report? Particularly concerning the assertion that the national debt will continue to soar due in part to Obamacare? Yes, way to move the goal posts. First Obama care was supposed to bankrupt America within his presidency while at the same time completely failing. Now it will bankrupt America sometime in the distant future. But hey, as long as you believe then what do you need facts for, anyone can prove anything with facts! Now the rallying cry is "everything would be better if it weren't for Republicans with their obstructionism
Well, everything would be better if it weren't for Republican obstructionism ,-)
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On August 29 2014 20:25 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2014 14:30 coverpunch wrote:On August 29 2014 12:44 Sub40APM wrote:On August 29 2014 10:35 jellyjello wrote:On August 29 2014 06:13 Sub40APM wrote:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/08/27/yes-obamacare-is-cutting-the-deficit/?tid=rssfeedTo start things off, the CBO says the deficit this year will be $506 billion, or 2.9 percent of GDP. In 2013 it was $680 billion, so that’s a pretty steep drop. And in terms of GDP, not only is that slightly lower than the average deficit of the last 40 years (3.1 percent), it’s also a 70 percent decline from Obama’s first year in office, where because of the Great Recession, which brought both the need for more spending and a plunge in tax revenues, the deficit peaked at 9.8 percent of GDP. But but but the Negro Communist Muslim Infiltrator was going to bankrupt America! Ever bothered to read the rest of the CBO report? Particularly concerning the assertion that the national debt will continue to soar due in part to Obamacare? Yes, way to move the goal posts. First Obama care was supposed to bankrupt America within his presidency while at the same time completely failing. Now it will bankrupt America sometime in the distant future. But hey, as long as you believe then what do you need facts for, anyone can prove anything with facts! Now the rallying cry is "everything would be better if it weren't for Republicans with their obstructionism Well, everything would be better if it weren't for Republican obstructionism ,-)
Possibly even for elected Republicans.
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News from Ferguson:
...One of the more dramatic moments came as a young man who introduced himself as Frankie Edwards pulled up his shirt to show the mayor a freshly scabbed scar from a bullet wound he received while protesting in Ferguson. He asked Knowles to apologize on behalf of the police, and asked the mayor whether he would step down.
Knowles pointedly said he would not.
"I'm not stepping down," he said. "The voters have an opportunity to relieve me when the time comes."... National Public Radio
A poignant report from a meeting between some of the areas authorities and the public. James Knowles doesn't come off as a very likable person.
A group of people caught up in unrest in Ferguson, Missouri, after a white officer killed a black teenager, sued local officials on Thursday, alleging civil rights violations through arrests and police assaults with rubber bullets and tear gas.
The suit, filed in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri, says law enforcement met a broad public outcry over the Aug. 9 killing of 18-year-old Michael Brown with "militaristic displays of force and weaponry," (and) engaged U.S. citizens "as if they were war combatants."
The lawsuit seeks a total of $40 million on behalf of six plaintiffs Reuters
And the new american dream is rolling. The lawyers are seeking further plaintiffs.
A suburban St. Louis cop who was suspended for pointing his semi-automatic rifle and threatening protesters in Ferguson, Missouri, has resigned, the police chief told the Associated Press. Lt. Ray Albers, who was put on indefinite leave from the St. Ann Police Department after being caught on a cellphone video that went viral, quit the job he had held since 1994 on Thursday. Albers could not be reached for comment.
The video showed the officer pointing his gun at a demonstrator who apparently had his hands up. He cursed and appeared to say, "I will ... kill you" before a sergeant made him lower his weapon and walk away. Albers was among the officers called in from neighboring towns NBC News (video in the link)
And that is not a very good sign either.
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PITTSBURGH — Six years into a natural gas boom, Pennsylvania has for the first time released details of 243 cases in which companies prospecting for oil or gas were found by state regulators to have contaminated private drinking water wells.
The Department of Environmental Protection on Thursday posted online links to the documents after the agency conducted a "thorough review" of paper files stored among its regional offices. The Associated Press and other news outlets have filed lawsuits and numerous open-records requests over the last several years seeking records of the DEP's investigations into gas-drilling complaints.
Pennsylvania's auditor general said in a report last month that DEP's system for handling complaints "was woefully inadequate" and that investigators could not even determine whether all complaints were actually entered into a reporting system.
DEP didn't immediately issue a statement with the online release, but posted the links on the same day that seven environmental groups sent a letter urging the agency to heed the auditor general's 29 recommendations for improvement.
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US housing regulator seeks more support for poor borrowers
The regulator for U.S. housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said on Friday it wants the two firms to provide more support to some low-income Americans taking out mortgages and refinancing their home loans.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency released proposed goals for the two state-owned firms for 2015-2017 that would advance agency chief Mel Watt's aim to widen access to housing credit.
The FHFA said it wants Freddie Mac, which is second only to Fannie Mae in the amount of housing finance it provides, to gradually expand the number of loans it backs for low-income multifamily buildings, such as apartment buildings, to 230,000 in 2017 from its target of 200,000 this year. ...
Under the FHFA proposal, the two firms would continue to make sure low-income families accounted for 23 percent of the firms' purchases of single-family home mortgages. However, the firms would raise the share of their purchases that back mortgages in low-income areas with large minority populations. ...
Source
What could go wrong?
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On August 30 2014 05:41 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +US housing regulator seeks more support for poor borrowers
The regulator for U.S. housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said on Friday it wants the two firms to provide more support to some low-income Americans taking out mortgages and refinancing their home loans.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency released proposed goals for the two state-owned firms for 2015-2017 that would advance agency chief Mel Watt's aim to widen access to housing credit.
The FHFA said it wants Freddie Mac, which is second only to Fannie Mae in the amount of housing finance it provides, to gradually expand the number of loans it backs for low-income multifamily buildings, such as apartment buildings, to 230,000 in 2017 from its target of 200,000 this year. ...
Under the FHFA proposal, the two firms would continue to make sure low-income families accounted for 23 percent of the firms' purchases of single-family home mortgages. However, the firms would raise the share of their purchases that back mortgages in low-income areas with large minority populations. ... SourceWhat could go wrong?
I dont....
Have they already forgotten? How are they so retarded....
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On August 30 2014 05:41 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +US housing regulator seeks more support for poor borrowers
The regulator for U.S. housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said on Friday it wants the two firms to provide more support to some low-income Americans taking out mortgages and refinancing their home loans.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency released proposed goals for the two state-owned firms for 2015-2017 that would advance agency chief Mel Watt's aim to widen access to housing credit.
The FHFA said it wants Freddie Mac, which is second only to Fannie Mae in the amount of housing finance it provides, to gradually expand the number of loans it backs for low-income multifamily buildings, such as apartment buildings, to 230,000 in 2017 from its target of 200,000 this year. ...
Under the FHFA proposal, the two firms would continue to make sure low-income families accounted for 23 percent of the firms' purchases of single-family home mortgages. However, the firms would raise the share of their purchases that back mortgages in low-income areas with large minority populations. ... SourceWhat could go wrong?
Nothing, unless some other mortgage firms start going around sending out mortgages at $0 down without verifying any information given by the client.
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In just 80 years, some 2,000 square miles of its coastal landscape have turned to open water, wiping places off maps, bringing the Gulf of Mexico to the back door of New Orleans and posing a lethal threat to an energy and shipping corridor vital to the nation’s economy.
And it’s going to get worse, even quicker.
Scientists now say one of the greatest environmental and economic disasters in the nation’s history is rushing toward a catastrophic conclusion over the next 50 years, so far unabated and largely unnoticed.
At the current rates that the sea is rising and land is sinking, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists say by 2100 the Gulf of Mexico could rise as much as 4.3 feet across this landscape, which has an average elevation of about 3 feet. If that happens, everything outside the protective levees — most of Southeast Louisiana — would be underwater.
The effects would be felt far beyond bayou country. The region best known for its self-proclaimed motto “laissez les bons temps rouler” — let the good times roll — is one of the nation’s economic linchpins.
This land being swallowed by the Gulf is home to half of the country’s oil refineries, a matrix of pipelines that serve 90 percent of the nation’s offshore energy production and 30 percent of its total oil and gas supply, a port vital to 31 states, and 2 million people who would need to find other places to live.
The landscape on which all that is built is washing away at a rate of a football field every hour, 16 square miles per year.
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Gotta keep loaning jonny so that you can post an article in 3 months saying that housing is still making a "modest" recovery.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
honestly at this point the whole good job less recovery is just a reflection of structural shift in the labor market to become more top heavy, and it will get worse with the large group of long term unemployed and the rising entry barrier to a modern corporate job.
there's no short term fix but improving the social safety net can at least lessen the pain.
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On August 30 2014 05:41 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +US housing regulator seeks more support for poor borrowers
The regulator for U.S. housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said on Friday it wants the two firms to provide more support to some low-income Americans taking out mortgages and refinancing their home loans.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency released proposed goals for the two state-owned firms for 2015-2017 that would advance agency chief Mel Watt's aim to widen access to housing credit.
The FHFA said it wants Freddie Mac, which is second only to Fannie Mae in the amount of housing finance it provides, to gradually expand the number of loans it backs for low-income multifamily buildings, such as apartment buildings, to 230,000 in 2017 from its target of 200,000 this year. ...
Under the FHFA proposal, the two firms would continue to make sure low-income families accounted for 23 percent of the firms' purchases of single-family home mortgages. However, the firms would raise the share of their purchases that back mortgages in low-income areas with large minority populations. ... SourceWhat could go wrong? The Federal Housing Finance Agency learns no lessons. Simply typical sclerotic govt agency behavior. Who knows who Mel Watt is, and who will trouble to blame him next time Fannie and Freddie end up in the news ... he's just another nameless federal bureaucrat.
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AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — A federal judge Friday threw out new Texas abortion restrictions that would have effectively closed more than a dozen clinics statewide in a victory for opponents of tough new anti-abortion laws sweeping across the U.S.
U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel sided with clinics that sued over one of the most disputed measures of a sweeping anti-abortion bill signed by Republican Gov. Rick Perry in 2013. The ruling stops new clinic requirements that would have left seven abortion facilities in Texas come Monday, when the law was set to take effect.
Texas currently has 19 abortion providers — already down from more than 40 just two years ago, according to groups that sued the state for the second time over the law known as HB2.
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It won't be too bad unless banks start creating mortgage backed securities full of garbage loans that they rate as 'AAA' even though they know the loans are bad.
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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) campaign manager, Jesse Benton, announced his resignation amid questions about his alleged role in 2012 Iowa bribery scandal.
According to the Kentucky Herald-Leader, Benton met with McConnell on Friday afternoon and gave the top Senate Republican his letter of resignation, which McConnell accepted.
Benton's resignation is effective Saturday.
The major staff change comes amidst a bribery scandal from when he was the political director for Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) during the 2012 presidential campaign that could spill over into McConnell's re-election fight. Benton has stressed that he is innocent and blamed "inaccurate press accounts and unsubstantiated media rumors."
"This decision breaks my heart, but I know it is the right thing for Mitch, for Kentucky and for the country," Benton said.
Two days earlier former Iowa state Sen. Kent Sorenson (R) pleaded guilty to taking $73,000 from Paul's campaign and trading that for Paul's endorsement. Sorenson also pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice for lying about his role in the deal. The guilty plea included a pair of sealed documents that could lead back to Benton.
Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes' campaign said the McConnell campaign should offer a full accounting of Benton's involvement in the scandal.
"Senator McConnell owes the people of Kentucky a full account of what he knew and when he knew it," Grimes spokeswoman Charly Norton said in a statement.
Source
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On August 30 2014 09:46 oneofthem wrote:
honestly at this point the whole good job less recovery is just a reflection of structural shift in the labor market to become more top heavy, and it will get worse with the large group of long term unemployed and the rising entry barrier to a modern corporate job.
there's no short term fix but improving the social safety net can at least lessen the pain.
Nope. It's not structural. If it were, we wouldn't have these college educated workers doing jobs that didn't require a degree 10 years ago (like brick-and-mortar retail and barista). There's a lot of jobs that are almost exclusively dependent on job training that range from cashier to manager to analyst. Those jobs can be filled by people with general educational levels. As the labor supply increases relative to job openings, the higher educated/skilled people push the lower educated people further down the "general skills" job ladder, until they either take up low/no skill jobs or fall off the ladder altogether. This can LOOK like you need more skills than you used to, but again, it doesn't explain why a job like retailer needs a college degree...
Also, if it were structural, we would see incomes soar in those highly demanded sectors, but instead we've seen wages across the board remain relatively flat. Even in technology, engineering, and healthcare, wages are relatively flat. Everything we see points to employers having their pick of employees, from low churn to low job opening/unemployed ratio.
You can also see this in business survey data.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/RpZGc3s.png)
I generally take business surveys with a grain of salt, because they are run by people with political interests as well (as you can see by taxes ALWAYS being in the ~22-25% range). But large swings in the numbers do highlight swings in business cycle dynamics. Mid 80s hike of interest rates, Dot-Com bubble desire for IT/computer staff/skills, Dot-Com bust, and the Great Recession demand collapse.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
opposed to structural is a pure supply/demand problem and i think we are past that. the college degree is a signaling device for general education jobs, and so is long term unemployment. these are structural elements in an economy. i'm not sure if an expansion in aggregate demand can fix all of that, particularly when it comes to the large group of long term unemployed. companies also understand that in a depressed labor market there's no need to hand out long term commitments to non-core personnel. they usually take on permnanet job positions in anticipation of future growth.
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On August 30 2014 12:58 oneofthem wrote:
opposed to structural is a pure supply/demand problem and i think we are past that. the college degree is a signaling device for general education jobs, and so is long term unemployment. these are structural elements in an economy. i'm not sure if an expansion in aggregate demand can fix all of that, particularly when it comes to the large group of long term unemployed. companies also understand that in a depressed labor market there's no need to hand out long term commitments to non-core personnel. they usually take on permnanet job positions in anticipation of future growth.
Except people with college degrees aren't being paid more than they have been traditionally. They are being paid less, and taking jobs that traditionally do not require a degree to do. Also, they're not being employed at a rate higher than before the recession. Long term unemployed aren't being hired because they don't have to be. Generally, when there is a greater supply, there is greater competition, so once subtle differences become magnified. This plays into the long-term unemployed vs the employed vs the recent unemployed. If there's ALWAYS a candidate that is currently employed or recently unemployed, why would you pick the long term unemployed? Unless the long term unemployed is overqualified, they get beat by other candidates, and this cascades down all the way to fast food workers during a labor supply abundance.
Structural unemployment is usually used as a red herring in modern economies anyways. It's proposed as a nebulous solution to a specific problem, in much the same way as "more/better education" is a nebulous solution to addressing things like inequality. The story and data out there support that there is an abundance of labor supply right now, or at least all the data I've seen.
What leads you to believe that we're past a "supply/demand" problem?
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
im using structural in the general sense of a situation having to do with some specific facts about how the labor market is. (the shape of the curve vs the curve moving) not in the sense of irreducible structural unemployment as in real business cycle theory. that kind of structural unemployment is typically associated with search cost and skill mismatch etc, but i had in mind other things.
the basic point is that there are some problems wtih the economy besides a lack of aggregate demand etc.
your first paragraph is basically elaborating what i was referring to as the structural problem of the long term unemployed, so seems like there's some misunderstanding.
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EPT
