|
On January 06 2011 14:26 TanGeng wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2011 10:34 purecarnagge wrote:
Gold is worth nothing. Its not used to support the dollar or other currency. If government fails gold will just be another mineral.
Do you know what jewelery might be made out of? Do you know what exchange value means? Do you even understand what money means? If not then why do you own any dollars or any other currency? By the same logic, you can't do anything intrinsically useful with paper currency. Its only virtue is to trade it for other stuff. And the dollar? If the government falls, it's just another discolored piece of paper. The characteristics of gold that give it good exchange value is that it's rare and it's malleable and it's coveted for jewelry. In other words, it has intrinsic value, scarcity, and divisibility. Show nested quote +On January 06 2011 10:34 purecarnagge wrote:
You will want generators, guns, ammo, and food. You will not want "gold". Again, see oil bubble 2 years ago? Yeah how do you think all those people liked there get rich scheme when it crashed and left them holding long term or taking the loss and moving on.
Gold is a horrible investment. It's speculating in precious metals, and you're going to lose out when you play with gold.
The only thing I can take away from this statement is you think gold is overvalued right now. Bringing up oil's peak price - are you calling a market top in gold? I'll mark your words if you are. Why don't you short gold? BTW hindsight analysis like that is useless especially when you cherry pick a market top. Why not pick some other random time like year 2001. Gold as an investment? Mainly it's wealth preservation vehicle since an investor literally puts no work into it after buying it. As far as I know Gold hasn't been any worse than the DJI since 1930. Hell, the Dow has underperformed since it was 10-to-1 in 1930 and now it's 8-to-1.
Stocks give dividends gold does not
That's the advantage of stocks/real estate, etc. they are actually Potentially productive investments. Gold is (as you mentioned) basically a better way to stuff your money under a mattress.... (sometimes that is the best plan, but never in the long term)
|
The idea of gold at 50,000 dollars an ounce is hilarious. If you look at history it's littered with examples of bubbles like this one.
Gold is a hedge against two things, inflation and the end of the world (this does mean its the same as a hedge against the stock market.
Gold has very little utility except in jewelery and some high end manufacturing.This means imo the price of gold is much more likely to fluctuate based on people's confidence in the metal as an investment. At the moment the greatest demand for the metal is coming from the average punter, as everyone like the OP piles in. (Like in other bubbles throughout history) While the price keeps going up everything's great but at some point the price will come down and when it does people will panic and you can be sure the price will crash.
What gold has in its favor at the moment is a ready stream of new customers. Many people are buying gold over the internet or even from vending machines, who have never had the chance before. As a result the gold price is steadily rising also helped by the weak dollar and some other factors. It will probably continue to rise for a while but at some point the price will crash when new customers run out.
Anyway, one point is very clear, gold is not something you should be betting your house on. At most you might consider investing a couple of % of your portfolio.
Remember try and diversify your portfolio as much as possible to minimise risk, and DONT BE GREEDY. The idea of gold at $50,000 an ounce says it all.
|
Golds value isn't increasing based on use. Its increasing based on FEAR and all them late night gold ads. Its inflated off of that. That and its track record over the long term is horrible. Gold is useful for preservation and inflation hedges. It's not a growth investment.
|
On January 07 2011 12:49 yarders wrote:
The idea of gold at 50,000 dollars an ounce is hilarious. If you look at history it's littered with examples of bubbles like this one.
History is also littered with examples of fiat currencies not backed by anything that become worthless.You could have had 500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 zim dollars a couple years ago and that wouldn't have bought one ounce of gold.
Go to forex factory and look at the manufacturing input prices for the past few months to get a real grasp of true inflation.
|
Would like to note gold is currently experiencing a decline due to us economic indicators improving, however some may need to be corrected due to the whole "year open" rush.
Probably expect gold to be more stable this year around, if china decides to buy out the eurozone. There are many factors which could easily push it to be very bullish
Id expect a decline over the next week or so however.
Certainly at no point has it been a "bubble" that is going to "crash".
|
Yeah i noted US job creation was four times what was expected but how much of that was just seasonal jobs at department stores etc over christmas?
|
On December 12 2010 12:53 CyuntiyuL wrote:
A few years ago my parents sold some property they owned. Got like $20,000 from it or so, and my mom wanted to invest it all into gold but my dad said it was stupid. In the end, they put in around $500 towards gold and the rest went on a downpayment on our house. The $500 is worth like two or three times as much now, and my dad never hears the end of it. : p
$20000? for a house? wtf where do you live? in the city i live in ur lucky to get a condo for $50000 CAD
|
Those of us from emerging nations like China,India profit more from share market. China is currently the fastest growing economy while India will have fastest growth rate after two years so its a no brainer for us to Invest in shares.
Gold is at peak value right now there are bound to be corrections in it (Read : Decline in value) atleast in short term. So you should wait a while for prices to drop and invest at that time. Gold is a good investment in long term and it will definitely appreciate quickly. Also, most people forget it but silver is also an excellent investment. And don't worry about guys talking about 'Gold synthesis' they are just kidding. 
|
gold is no more money than paper. it's just a store of value for your labor.
if you want a good investment, increase your human capital with some education. it can be anything you think people will want; if you want to study your blacksmithing do it if you think people are going to need handmaid nails (unlikely but hey who knows).
On January 07 2011 22:11 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Yeah i noted US job creation was four times what was expected but how much of that was just seasonal jobs at department stores etc over christmas?
those jobs are expected.
there is still excess capacity worldwide; especially in the US and Europe right now.
|
|
|
Yea the whole reason the price of gold went through the roof is because of the economic problems and wars that have been going on. When you see a spike that big in the chart, you know it's going to peak pretty soon. I wouldn't buy any of it. It's gonna collapse in the next year or so I bet.
|
Sanya12364 Posts
Just about the most one-side analysis you could get. All-in-all fairly shallow analysis and it's geared towards short-term speculators rather than people looking for wealth-preservation. 2012 GLD calls at $230, seriously!!!???
And the three reasons?
1. Bad economic news may not earn you much, and good news could crush you.
Good news is bad for gold only as long as inflation stays tame. One of the reasons given that inflation was tame is that financial institutions were holding excess reserves and not lending. This is a recession, after all. The implicit assumption is that, banks would continue not to lend those excess reserves in a recovering economy - a real stupid leap in logic.
2. Sure, the dollar has its problems, but just look at the other guys
This is the number one reason FOR owning gold, since gold-bugs are betting against all paper currencies. If it's just the dollar getting weaker, the simple solution is to own stronger stabler currencies.
If this argument "for" a gold bubble gets stronger, let me get a piece of that bubble. LOL.
3. The gold boom has the earmarks of a speculators' rally
This is the one point to look at carefully. Unfortunately, the article did nothing to discuss Asian and investor demand or to examine the fundamentals of the market (where and why the market is the way it is) or to examine investor sentiment. The 16% to 40% increase in investor share looks impressive with the innuendo that markets shares shouldn't shift (silly) or the shift isn't at all justified (unsubstantiated).
Here it is good to pay attention to investor sentiment and gauge whether or not they are overly bullish. A sign of a healthy price is when gold buyers are holding onto their money and looking for buying opportunities rather than rushing it into the market with reckless abandon.
--------------------------
One thing that I noticed is that the author and interviewees don't fully understand the gold market. On that point, they are smart for staying away from something they don't understand. The same advice goes for everybody. Don't speculate(invest) in gold unless you understand its market.
There's some discussion of alternatives like investing in foreign stock and the such. First of all, that is hard since the average retail investor won't have much insight into foreign markets and foreign companies. They will be depending on money managers and paying them fees. They are pretty much the same kind of people doing the talking. It's a bit of a self-advocacy situation going on there. Owning gold for wealth-preservation is much easier.
|
On January 13 2011 13:08 TanGeng wrote:Just about the most one-side analysis you could get. All-in-all fairly shallow analysis and it's geared towards short-term speculators rather than people looking for wealth-preservation. 2012 GLD calls at $230, seriously!!!??? And the three reasons? Good news is bad for gold only as long as inflation stays tame. One of the reasons given that inflation was tame is that financial institutions were holding excess reserves and not lending. This is a recession, after all. The implicit assumption is that, banks would continue not to lend those excess reserves in a recovering economy - a real stupid leap in logic. This is the number one reason FOR owning gold, since gold-bugs are betting against all paper currencies. If it's just the dollar getting weaker, the simple solution is to own stronger stabler currencies. If this argument "for" a gold bubble gets stronger, let me get a piece of that bubble. LOL. This is the one point to look at carefully. Unfortunately, the article did nothing to discuss Asian and investor demand or to examine the fundamentals of the market (where and why the market is the way it is) or to examine investor sentiment. The 16% to 40% increase in investor share looks impressive with the innuendo that markets shares shouldn't shift (silly) or the shift isn't at all justified (unsubstantiated). Here it is good to pay attention to investor sentiment and gauge whether or not they are overly bullish. A sign of a healthy price is when gold buyers are holding onto their money and looking for buying opportunities rather than rushing it into the market with reckless abandon. -------------------------- One thing that I noticed is that the author and interviewees don't fully understand the gold market. On that point, they are smart for staying away from something they don't understand. The same advice goes for everybody. Don't speculate(invest) in gold unless you understand its market. There's some discussion of alternatives like investing in foreign stock and the such. First of all, that is hard since the average retail investor won't have much insight into foreign markets and foreign companies. They will be depending on money managers and paying them fees. They are pretty much the same kind of people doing the talking. It's a bit of a self-advocacy situation going on there. Owning gold for wealth-preservation is much easier.
On January 07 2011 13:15 purecarnagge wrote:
Golds value isn't increasing based on use. Its increasing based on FEAR and all them late night gold ads. Its inflated off of that. That and its track record over the long term is horrible. Gold is useful for preservation and inflation hedges. It's not a growth investment.
I guess reading isn't your strong suit buddy considering I've already stated what you just tried to write a book on...
|
Sanya12364 Posts
You just linked to a gold BUBBLE article.
On top of that, I didn't rule out speculation (investment) in gold - if you are willing to do your research. You are the one shutting the door on that possibility. And just by linking to that article and thinking that it is valid, I'd be partial to consider you completely ignorant about the gold market.
If I was mean-spirited I'd call you a little slow on the uptake. Take a hint.
|
Sanya12364 Posts
On January 13 2011 15:27 purecarnagge wrote:
I guess reading isn't your strong suit buddy considering I've already stated what you just tried to write a book on...
"write a book on..."
That was about the shortest excerpt I could have written to explain the situation. You'd need to read a lot more to figure out what is really going on. As I a said a few pages ago. Don't even bother if you are going to be lazy about it.
|
UK interest rates left at 0.5%
I will be picking up more silver tomorrow.
|
No, I just don't believe in investing in artifically inflated bubbles, when there are other inflation preservation hedges out there that have a much better 50 year track record than your precious last 7 years of gold.
do you even know about the 1980's and gold?
|
naturally you don't buy in at the highs 
|
On January 14 2011 00:57 forelmashi wrote:naturally you don't buy in at the highs
the high could be the new low O_o
|
Sanya12364 Posts
On January 14 2011 00:50 purecarnagge wrote:
No, I just don't believe in investing in artifically inflated bubbles, when there are other inflation preservation hedges out there that have a much better 50 year track record than your precious last 7 years of gold.
do you even know about the 1980's and gold?
There you go again. 1980 is a peak. Unless you are calling the market top AND demonstrate a similar scenario, pointing to market peak demonstrates nothing. Furthermore 1980 was preceded by the 1970's which saw gold run up from $35 to said $850. History also shows a 1974 peak price just under $200 prior to the 1975-1980 gold blow off. History also shows Volcker raising short term interest rates above 20% and shrinking money supply in 1980.
But I doubt that, those two things mean anything to you. NOTHING you have written backs your ability to call a gold top. Your "12% mutual fund return" further undermines your credibility for judging the stock market and other kinds of investments. Stick to real estate.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
