EPT[ASL10] Ro16 Group Selection - Page 3
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RKC
2848 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10475 Posts
Zero gave himself such an easy group lol. Flash interesting group, I think RvP is actually the best matchup since Protoss has issues with Forge FE vs 1 base play. | ||
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TornadoSteve
1116 Posts
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RowdierBob
Australia13425 Posts
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Crunchums
United States11144 Posts
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QOGQOG
834 Posts
On September 28 2020 11:32 TornadoSteve wrote: Really guys? SK is going to advance? Can i know why? Because from my point of view this group will smash him and sk winning a single game is an upset to me I didn't predict him to advance (I think he's been overhyped for a while, good as he is), but while we know he can't win a ZvZ ever, under any circumstances, his ZvP is quite strong. Mini is inconsistent and not the PvZ monster he once was, and Shuttle has looked pretty good but is recently back from the military and not necessarily totally back in shape, so there's a decent chance for SoulKey. | ||
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Djabanete
United States2786 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8906 Posts
On September 28 2020 13:01 QOGQOG wrote: I didn't predict him to advance (I think he's been overhyped for a while, good as he is), but while we know he can't win a ZvZ ever, under any circumstances, his ZvP is quite strong. Mini is inconsistent and not the PvZ monster he once was, and Shuttle has looked pretty good but is recently back from the military and not necessarily totally back in shape, so there's a decent chance for SoulKey. Yes, Sk has a poor zvz. Could it be because of his low apm ( 250 - 300 ) , compared to 400+ of The other zergs , who reach these numbers only in zvz ? ( not to mention hero or effort - 500 constant apm ) | ||
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p14c
Vatican City State431 Posts
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whaski
Finland577 Posts
On September 28 2020 05:46 kogeT wrote: A: Zero / Leta B: Action / Best C: Hero / Snow D: SK / Soma Hopes and dream for 1 terran in Ro.8, but maps also do not help. Could you share your thoughts about maps? From recent spongames, sure Benzene is as horrible to tvz as before and ringing bloom seems bad for both tvz and tvp but Shakuras seems to be quite good for terran, plasma (suprisingly) as well and optimizer is terran map acording koreans. That leaves eclipse and polypoid, at least Light and Rush like to play those two maps. | ||
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End1esss
12 Posts
B: Light, Action C: Snow, Hero D: Soulkey, Mini | ||
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Avi-Love
Denmark423 Posts
Firstly, the maps of this ASL are incredibly terran favoured, and I honestly think this could only happen because of Flash playing random. It takes about 1 minute to look up spon stats and what you get is this: Polypoid T wins 55.3% of the time Eclipse T wins 52% of the time Optimizer T wins 60.9% of the time Ringing Bloom T wins 51.6% of the time Benzene T wins 49.5% of the time Shakuras T wins 59.3% of the time Plasma T wins 55% of the time. Are these stats perfect? Of course not, a few of the maps have fairly small sample sizes (shakuras, Plasma and Benzene) But even if T has a bad matchup on a map, like they do TvZ on Benzene, their other matchup is even more imbalanced in their favour. Secondly, SK is by far the best player in his group, he's actually the only person in his group that has consistently been in the top 10 of spon stats for months and months. Mini has managed to sneak up to a 9th place recently, but for the majority of the time he has been hanging out around rank ~15, Shuttle has been below rank 20 pretty much for the entire time since he returned from the military, especially due to a ~30-32% win rate in pvz. Now I get it, it's a bo1/bo3 anything can happen, SK has obviously struggled with inconsistencies in offline performances, but make no mistake he is the best player in that group. (For anyone interested, over the last 5 months SK is 27-14 vs Mini, 18-10 vs Shuttle, and 4-4 vs Soma in head to head matches). Now for my own predictions: Group A Queen/Rush. This is the easiest group to predict by far, Leta might've gotten a win via Bisu's sudoku, but he's just not on the same level as Rush/Queen, and while Rush has been a notorious underperformer at offline events, I am genuinely hopeful after his flawless performance in the previous round. Group B Light/Best. This is the group of death, and by far the hardest group to predict -- I think Light makes it out no matter what. If Best wins the first game, he should be the one to make it out second, if not he probably has to win two PvZs to make it out, which is doable but extremely hard. I don't think any result in this group would be a surprise or upset though. (Some random h2h stats from the last 5 months: Light vs Best 26-21, Light vs Action 52-33, Light vs Larva 79-49. Best vs Action 31-32, Best vs Larva 32-44). Group C Snow/Flash. I think Flash's best mu is RvP, while RvZ is his worst. The only zvt games I've watched him play were 2 hatch mass ling into very low eco 2h muta all in, and his zvz againt zero looked incredibly bad. However, I think having two protoss players and the worst zerg left in the tournament in his group gives him a good chance at advancing. Snow is the most consistent / best performer in the group. There aren't a lot of interesting stats since spon doesn't track flash's random afaik, but Hero tends to do very well against Snow(72-49) and Free (54-14). Group D SK/Soma. Like I wrote earlier I really don't think there is much upset potential here, especially with the deciding games being zvp. Soma is 24-6 vs Shuttle, and 51-46 vs Mini. SK is 27-14 vs Mini and 18-10 vs Shuttle. | ||
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yeti
United States259 Posts
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QOGQOG
834 Posts
On September 28 2020 16:12 prosatan wrote: Yes, Sk has a poor zvz. Could it be because of his low apm ( 250 - 300 ) , compared to 400+ of The other zergs , who reach these numbers only in zvz ? ( not to mention hero or effort - 500 constant apm ) I don't think that's the issue—he does decently at the matchup online, for example (just a hair under 50% this year on Sponbbang, higher recently), so it's not like he's physically incapable of it. I think it's a combination of choking and seemingly bring very predictable on build order choices (thus getting countered, which happens to him way too often to be chance). On September 29 2020 00:22 Avi-Love wrote: I feel like there's a decent amount of trolling going on in this thread, so hopefully I can correct some misconceptions. Either people are trolling or they're misinformed, they really can't be both, kind of by definition. On September 29 2020 00:22 Avi-Love wrote: Secondly, SK is by far the best player in his group, he's actually the only person in his group that has consistently been in the top 10 of spon stats for months and months. Mini has managed to sneak up to a 9th place recently, but for the majority of the time he has been hanging out around rank ~15, Shuttle has been below rank 20 pretty much for the entire time since he returned from the military, especially due to a ~30-32% win rate in pvz. Now I get it, it's a bo1/bo3 anything can happen, SK has obviously struggled with inconsistencies in offline performances, but make no mistake he is the best player in that group. (For anyone interested, over the last 5 months SK is 27-14 vs Mini, 18-10 vs Shuttle, and 4-4 vs Soma in head to head matches). Bisu had been in the top ten (and often the top five) when he got eliminated by JyJ and Leta, who were nowhere close. Obviously actual skill level is important, but so is mentality and preparation. Soma made top four last season (and I'd say he's the most likely to advance), Mini is hard to prepare against and inconsistently brilliant, and Shuttle has a strong record for PvZ and for advancing from groups he has no business advancing from. They've all gone further in tournaments than people expected them to. Last season SK was eliminated by Soma and Brain, season before by Sacsri and Flash, season before by Snow and Last. In fact, the last time he made it beyond the Ro16 was ASL4. And every time I've heard how great SoulKey is beforehand. This may be the easiest group he's gotten, so he certainly has a chance, but with his Ro16 record and his recent ASTL performance, I don't give him great odds offline against a Zerg and two (admittedly inconsistent) PvZ experts. | ||
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Avi-Love
Denmark423 Posts
Just to put things into perspective, here are Shuttle's pvz stats against the good zergs since his return: vs Action 11-58 vs Soulkey 10-18 vs Zero 10-45 vs Soma 6-24 vs hero 23-74 vs Larva 14-48. Are you guys really that delusional because he had 1 good day of KCM? I won't even mention the map stats for ZvP, because they are also overall quite advantageous for zerg. | ||
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QOGQOG
834 Posts
On September 29 2020 02:56 Avi-Love wrote: Bisu was not eliminated by leta and JyJ though, Bisu was eliminated by himself -- Leta and JyJ just played solid enough that he couldn't come back from his own mistakes. That was my whole point. That on paper SK should advance but he chokes on stage and especially in ZvZ. So his good online stats don't hold that much weight, just as Bisu's didn't. On September 29 2020 02:56 Avi-Love wrote: I also think you're being a bit ridiculous when you call shuttle and mini pvz experts. Unless Bisu has retaken the lead, they're top two PvZ winrates in all of ASL, so yes, they're pretty clearly PvZ experts. Now, to be fair, Mini has fallen off the last couple seasons and Shuttle is, as you point out, pretty freshly back. If each of them played 100 games against SK, SK would win the majority. But they can absolutely play solid enough that SoulKey can't come back from his own mistakes, to borrow your description of JyJ and Leta vs. Bisu. And maybe play unusually/well enough to force those mistakes out of him. | ||
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TaardadAiel
Bulgaria750 Posts
Group D has the potential to be funkier just because their performance varies wildly. SK won the same KSL season he lost 0-3 to Mind in the group stage. If everyone plays within two standard variations of their usual online play, figuratively speaking, SK advancing is a pretty safe bet. I wonder if Shuttle has regained some of his late-game PvZ form. I'd love to see a macro slugfest between him and Soulkey. I'm pretty skeptical about it, though. Avi's on point. Mini and Shuttle used to be strong in PvZ, they're nowhere as good now. And there's a bunch of really strong Zergs at the moment. | ||
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ERSJ
Sweden57 Posts
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whaski
Finland577 Posts
On September 29 2020 03:08 QOGQOG wrote: That was my whole point. That on paper SK should advance but he chokes on stage and especially in ZvZ. So his good online stats don't hold that much weight, just as Bisu's didn't. Unless Bisu has retaken the lead, they're top two PvZ winrates in all of ASL, so yes, they're pretty clearly PvZ experts. Now, to be fair, Mini has fallen off the last couple seasons and Shuttle is, as you point out, pretty freshly back. If each of them played 100 games against SK, SK would win the majority. But they can absolutely play solid enough that SoulKey can't come back from his own mistakes, to borrow your description of JyJ and Leta vs. Bisu. And maybe play unusually/well enough to force those mistakes out of him. Shuttle was (before army) elite pvz player. He is getting there and like the examples of weekly tours show still has his lategame mastery. I doubt Soulkey is going to let him get there... Bisu was for a long time first in sponbang rankings AFTER his ASL disaster. He holds 72,9% winrate in pvz including 6-2 over Soulkey and 15-7 over Soma. So yes Bisu is best Protoss and best pvzer by a large margin. His horrible fuckup in ASL is worriesome, but certainly Bisu is not washed up in his overall form compared to Mini or Shuttle. | ||
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AttackZerg
United States7577 Posts
B - Action/Light but this is a crazy hard group. If 'potential' Larva shows up instead of 'offline' Larva, he remains a dangerous wild-card and Best is the FBH of Toss, on a good day he murders a god on a bad day he is ... just not good. I don't think there is a safe bet here. C - Flash/Hero I don't think Hero is the second best player in this group, but ZvP seems to be in a good place right now. I think the universe will give Flash Terran just because of how many people have doubted him. If the other pro's are correct, he is going to get crushed. Soulkey said, "put me in your group" according to Flash. D - not a prediction. I am rooting for Soma and Soulkey to advance. I do think Soulkey is one of the most talented zergs, we have ever seen. Soma is really, really fun to watch and he is Revival-level of odd. | ||
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