I'm starting this thread so early because 1. I can't wait for the matches, especially Much vs. sAviOr <3; and 2. I want to confirm that the matches start at 1:30 TL.net time so I don't miss them!
edit: It does start at 1:30 TL.net time. Thanks KizZBG for confirming this!
Casy > FireBatHero NaDa > YellOw[ArnC] (voted Nada but rooting Yellow ALL the way!) Much < sAviOr (this is gonna be awesome!) Iris < ZergMan (Iris has crap TvZ)
Casy < FBH (He will only win the first game lose the next 2) NaDa v Yarnc I really don't know. But i voted for yarnc anyways. I have to see how these two play then I' can be sure of the next two games :> Much < Savior(Voted much anyways ) Iris <<< Zergman (No questions asked.)
My predictions: FireBatHero > Casy - fbh is great player and on a roll! YellOw[ArnC] > NaDa - I believe the zergs have learnt to dominate Arkanoid. sAviOr > Much - Can't really se much winning this match on that map. ZergMan > Iris - Iris sux, he will not take one single game from now on.
Casy>FBH Casy OWNZLEET Yarnc>Nada seeing him beat oov... darn, but his ZvT is just as decent as the old YellOw sAviOr>Much Arkanoid + Savior = HAHAHA Zergman > Iris ManaBlue : "My mom could TvZ better than Iri"s.. or something lolz
On February 06 2007 16:59 ManaBlue wrote: Nice formatting of the first post boghat! I like it.
I only have 2 things to say.
1) Iris will lose, and lose badly at that, because he's king douche of the Terrans.
2) Much must beat savior and make us all freeze in shock!!! Hey! It could happen! Stop looking at me like that!
Funny thing is, I actually voted Much. I have faith!
Thanks Mana . BTW, does anyone know for sure that the game time is 1:30 TL.net time? I just want to make sure and post it in the original post. From my limited experience though it seems like all OSL games this season start at this time.
On February 06 2007 16:59 ManaBlue wrote: Nice formatting of the first post boghat! I like it.
I only have 2 things to say.
1) Iris will lose, and lose badly at that, because he's king douche of the Terrans.
2) Much must beat savior and make us all freeze in shock!!! Hey! It could happen! Stop looking at me like that!
Funny thing is, I actually voted Much. I have faith!
Thanks Mana . BTW, does anyone know for sure that the game time is 1:30 TL.net time? I just want to make sure and post it in the original post. From my limited experience though it seems like all OSL games this season start at this time.
Yeap 1:30 TL.net time. And thanks for partly copying my opening formatting. j/k :p it's actually better than mine and good work
edit: Bad thing I'm at college tomorrow so can't watch live. I'll keep track of the live reports. Now its time for to me.
On February 06 2007 16:59 ManaBlue wrote: Nice formatting of the first post boghat! I like it.
I only have 2 things to say.
1) Iris will lose, and lose badly at that, because he's king douche of the Terrans.
2) Much must beat savior and make us all freeze in shock!!! Hey! It could happen! Stop looking at me like that!
Funny thing is, I actually voted Much. I have faith!
Thanks Mana . BTW, does anyone know for sure that the game time is 1:30 TL.net time? I just want to make sure and post it in the original post. From my limited experience though it seems like all OSL games this season start at this time.
Yeap 1:30 TL.net time. And thanks for partly copying my opening formatting. j/k :p it's actually better than mine and good work
I actually did use your formatting for a lot of my inspiration so thanks for making it in the first place .
On February 06 2007 17:11 Purind wrote: I hope Savior rapes Much. Much would shit all over Zergman if they were to face each other, whereas I think Zergman has a 50/50 shot at Savior.
Actually, ever since Savior lost to Gorush, his ZvZ has improved tremendously. I think you could say he's got more than a 50/50 chance to win ZvZ.
On February 06 2007 17:11 Purind wrote: I hope Savior rapes Much. Much would shit all over Zergman if they were to face each other, whereas I think Zergman has a 50/50 shot at Savior.
Actually, ever since Savior lost to Gorush, his ZvZ has improved tremendously. I think you could say he's got more than a 50/50 chance to win ZvZ.
Zergman, Savior, and Chojja at his best all have comparable ZvZ. Anytime that any of them play each other, it's always 50/50.
I think all of those games, the T players were significantly outplayed and that's more why they lost than the map. Also, probably the only games where the T's were known for (currently) having strong TvZ were savior vs. midas and july vs. casy (maybe hwasin, but eh, I dunno).
On February 06 2007 17:11 Purind wrote: I hope Savior rapes Much. Much would shit all over Zergman if they were to face each other, whereas I think Zergman has a 50/50 shot at Savior.
Actually, ever since Savior lost to Gorush, his ZvZ has improved tremendously. I think you could say he's got more than a 50/50 chance to win ZvZ.
Yeah, I've seen Savior's ZvZ's over the past year, and it has been very very impressive. That's why I give him such a high chance at beating Zergman
Casy > fbh Yellow[arnc] > nada I don't know hard too last time they vsed yellow[arnc] raped nada. Savior > Much Zergman > Iris. Sortof hard both dont have the best zvt or tvz yet Zergman seems to better.
I'm always bad at liquibets (sometimes 0/10) but here it goes i hope my 0/6 record diminishes today ^^.
FBH > Casy Just because I hate Casy now that he beat my fatzerg. Nada > Fake Yellow I hate fake yellow, simple as that. Much > Savior Much is the only protoss, he is the savior of aiur. Zergman > Iris He beat Hwasin who is gosu in TvZ, craterface will be a walk in the park.
P.S - Thanks for making the post early, I nearly forgot games were today until you made it haha.
July > Casy is legit Keke > iris was a product of iris being super bad at tvz Savior > Bifrost - its savior ffs not sure about the others though... anyway, voted; Casy > FBH Nada > Yarnc Sasvior > Much Zergman > iris
On February 06 2007 17:11 Purind wrote: I hope Savior rapes Much. Much would shit all over Zergman if they were to face each other, whereas I think Zergman has a 50/50 shot at Savior.
Actually, ever since Savior lost to Gorush, his ZvZ has improved tremendously. I think you could say he's got more than a 50/50 chance to win ZvZ.
Zergman, Savior, and Chojja at his best all have comparable ZvZ. Anytime that any of them play each other, it's always 50/50.
Most Zs that have ever been top level have very solid ZvZ. Even those who are slumping now - YellOw, GoRush, July come to mind. GGPlay also has top ZvZ.
July > Casy is legit Keke > iris was a product of iris being super bad at tvz Savior > Bifrost - its savior ffs not sure about the others though... anyway, voted; Casy > FBH Nada > Yarnc Sasvior > Much Zergman > iris
Savior>midas its savior!!! And because midas choked with his double stimming and his horrible counter vs. the fast guards. Yarnc > Oov Yarnc has good Oov's card. Yarnc has good zvt while oov is slumping and played sloppy. Zergman > Hwasin iirc those early speedlings punished hwasin for being too greedy,
It's funny how zergman wins a couple of zvt's and is now considered a big favorite over Iris
Or Iris losing a couple tvz's and now considered horrible tvz.
It's just silly. 2 games mean nothing. Any pro can win or lose 2 games to any other pro any day. Nobody should ever judged based on 2 games. The fact is, over the span of their last 30 games, Iris is exactly 50% tvz - doesn't fit the definition of horrible tvz by any means. And you don't consistently hold top 10 Kespa for a year by having horrible tvz especially in a periods where every league is swarmed with zergs. Zergman is 36% zvt in his last 30. Who's the clear favorite, it's quite simple.
Stop with the imba map obsession all please! Ok its obvious some maps are harder for certain race in certain match up, but STOP claiming 'imbalanced' based only on your judgement regarding some map properties, especially when the actual results deny it...
I dont say that especially for today, but its becoming really annoying. Every tread is the same story, and most of the time nobody agrees on this cause nobody knows the true answer.
And difference of level usually can overcome the small imba of the map, if there is one. Of course some are hugely imba, but that's another story.
On February 07 2007 00:24 tfeign wrote: It's funny how zergman wins a couple of zvt's and is now considered a big favorite over Iris
Or Iris losing a couple tvz's and now considered horrible tvz.
It's just silly. 2 games mean nothing. Any pro can win or lose 2 games to any other pro any day. Nobody should ever judged based on 2 games. The fact is, over the span of their last 30 games, Iris is exactly 50% tvz - doesn't fit the definition of horrible tvz by any means. And you don't hold top 10 Kespa for a year by having a horrible tvz especially in a periods where every league is swarmed with zergs. Zergman is 36% zvt. Who's the clear favorite, it's quite simple.
I agree you on this, however..... Sometimes just 2 games do count, even one game counts to bring a player back from the dead, and let them ride the momentum to win more games. It may look like 2 loss is nothing, but that may affect the player's morale and momentum, so even though overall result is important, I think two or even one game is important too. Again this may be a bad example since he didn't make it to round of 8 of this thread, Julyzerg after a win vs Xellos in an imporant match up in the proleagus finals helped him get a momentum and dominate Oov, the MSL survivor, the wildcards for OSL, and he showed really good performance agaisnt Casy too, almost coming for a comeback in game 1(although all these opponents besides Casy I think are slumping or sucky). Julyzerg has comeback to life in my opinion ^^. So Iris who lost to Gorush, who has terrible builds lately, and Zergman who beat Hwasin TvZ gosu, I think this will give Zergman confidence and the momentum to beat Iris. So although what you are saying is totally right about the larger picture, you should see the smaller ones too, like the 2 silly games, because soon they will become the larger picture ^^. Sorry for making this so fucking long.
On February 07 2007 00:24 tfeign wrote: It's funny how zergman wins a couple of zvt's and is now considered a big favorite over Iris
Or Iris losing a couple tvz's and now considered horrible tvz.
It's just silly. 2 games mean nothing. Any pro can win or lose 2 games to any other pro any day. Nobody should ever judged based on 2 games. The fact is, over the span of their last 30 games, Iris is exactly 50% tvz - doesn't fit the definition of horrible tvz by any means. And you don't consistently hold top 10 Kespa for a year by having horrible tvz especially in a periods where every league is swarmed with zergs. Zergman is 36% zvt in his last 30. Who's the clear favorite, it's quite simple.
On February 07 2007 00:24 tfeign wrote: It's funny how zergman wins a couple of zvt's and is now considered a big favorite over Iris
Or Iris losing a couple tvz's and now considered horrible tvz.
It's just silly. 2 games mean nothing. Any pro can win or lose 2 games to any other pro any day. Nobody should ever judged based on 2 games. The fact is, over the span of their last 30 tvz games, Iris is exactly 50% tvz - doesn't fit the definition of horrible tvz by any means. And you don't hold top 10 Kespa for a year by having a horrible tvz especially in a periods where every league is swarmed with zergs. Zergman is 36% zvt. Who's the clear favorite, it's quite simple.
I agree you on this, however..... Sometimes just 2 games do count, even one game counts to bring a player back from the dead, and let them ride the momentum to win more games. It may look like 2 loss is nothing, but that may affect the player's morale and momentum, so even though overall result is important, I think two or even one game is important too. Again this may be a bad example since he didn't make it to round of 8 of this thread, Julyzerg after a win vs Xellos in an imporant match up in the proleagus finals helped him get a momentum and dominate Oov, the MSL survivor, the wildcards for OSL, and he showed really good performance agaisnt Casy too, almost coming for a comeback in game 1(although all these opponents besides Casy I think are slumping or sucky). Julyzerg has comeback to life in my opinion ^^. So Iris who lost to Gorush, who has terrible builds lately, and Zergman who beat Hwasin TvZ gosu, I think this will give Zergman confidence and the momentum to beat Iris. So although what you are saying is totally right about the larger picture, you should see the smaller ones too, like the 2 silly games, because soon they will become the larger picture ^^. Sorry for making this so fucking long.
You're just randomnly making guesses with little basis for evidence. Winning a game may give a confidence boost, but it does not increase his chances of winning in the next game. You cited 1 example - I'm sorry but 1 example is nowhere near enough to form such a conclusion.
According to you, every time Zergman wins a game, he is more likely to win his next game as well.
I don't look at 1 or 2 games as evidence. I look at his last 30 zvt games, which look something like this (Most recent first):
WWWLWLLLLWLLLLLWLLWWLWLWLLLWLLL
According to Zergman's last 30 game history, whenever Zergman wins a game, his chances of winning the next game is 30%.
Him winning a game does not increase his chances in winning the next game in any way. As a matter of fact, immediately following a win, he is much more likely to lose the next game than to win it.
well any comments on winning prediction must make some statements on something that causes winning, or captures winning in a causal way, the metaphysical "power" of a player, if you will. So statistics is only meaningful to winning prediction insofar as it is meaningful to this power or force, whether this power or force exists and what of its limits is another story.
hmm, rather, any meaningful statistics imply some metaphysical winning force or ability.
On February 07 2007 00:24 tfeign wrote: It's funny how zergman wins a couple of zvt's and is now considered a big favorite over Iris
Or Iris losing a couple tvz's and now considered horrible tvz.
It's just silly. 2 games mean nothing. Any pro can win or lose 2 games to any other pro any day. Nobody should ever judged based on 2 games. The fact is, over the span of their last 30 tvz games, Iris is exactly 50% tvz - doesn't fit the definition of horrible tvz by any means. And you don't hold top 10 Kespa for a year by having a horrible tvz especially in a periods where every league is swarmed with zergs. Zergman is 36% zvt. Who's the clear favorite, it's quite simple.
I agree you on this, however..... Sometimes just 2 games do count, even one game counts to bring a player back from the dead, and let them ride the momentum to win more games. It may look like 2 loss is nothing, but that may affect the player's morale and momentum, so even though overall result is important, I think two or even one game is important too. Again this may be a bad example since he didn't make it to round of 8 of this thread, Julyzerg after a win vs Xellos in an imporant match up in the proleagus finals helped him get a momentum and dominate Oov, the MSL survivor, the wildcards for OSL, and he showed really good performance agaisnt Casy too, almost coming for a comeback in game 1(although all these opponents besides Casy I think are slumping or sucky). Julyzerg has comeback to life in my opinion ^^. So Iris who lost to Gorush, who has terrible builds lately, and Zergman who beat Hwasin TvZ gosu, I think this will give Zergman confidence and the momentum to beat Iris. So although what you are saying is totally right about the larger picture, you should see the smaller ones too, like the 2 silly games, because soon they will become the larger picture ^^. Sorry for making this so fucking long.
You're just randomnly making guesses with little basis for evidence. Winning a game may give a confidence boost, but it does not increase his chances of winning in the next game. You cited 1 example - I'm sorry but 1 example is nowhere near enough to form such a conclusion.
According to you, every time Zergman wins a game, he is more likely to win his next game as well.
I don't look at 1 or 2 games as evidence. I look at his last 30 zvt games, which look something like this (Most recent first):
WWWLWLLLLWLLLLLWLLWWLWLWLLLWLLL
According to Zergman's last 30 game history, whenever Zergman wins a game, his chances of winning the next game is 30%.
Him winning a game does not increase his chances in winning the next game in any way. As a matter of fact, immediately following a win, he is much more likely to lose the next game than to win it.
I don't think I come close to your knowledge of the league or the statistics of individual players. I think you look too much in statistics ^^ I think you look too little in morale and momentum. Although the statistics play a vital role in the match-ups outcome, the momentum a player has will sometimes break away from the statistics ^^. I cannot argue well with you since your way more informed about the leagues so all we can do is wait for the result between Iris and Zergman ^^
On February 07 2007 01:05 Orome wrote: The thing you're missing Tfeign is that Mana's new hobby is to rag on Iris' TvZ, and, true or not, everyone's blindly jumping on the bandwagon. :p
Zergman is the favourite for this series, but today's outcome is very uncertain.
I've come to realize for a while now that Mana likes to rag on a lot of things that are just completely nonsense, which stems from just watching 1-2 games and making a definite conclusion out of it.
I remember his rag on Midas's tvz and how Midas has one of the worst tvz in progaming, and most of the forum jumped the bandwagon as well. I was one of the few defending Midas's tvz. I think since then Midas has proven that his tvz is nowhere near as bad as anyone then thought.
It sounds real familiar actually. At that time Midas lost 1 game to Zergman, which was what caused Mana to rag that Midas's tvz was complete shit. I didn't follow the bandwagon and said that 1 game really did not mean anything, and that if we look at Midas's overall statistics in tvz that his tvz was actually quite good.
Very similar here. Iris lost a couple of tvz's. Now people ragging on Iris and his horrible tvz without looking at the big picture. According to the big picture, although Iris's tvz is not as strong as Midas's, it's definitely not as bad as what people claim he is. No one should look at 1-2 games and form such a conclusion. You need to look at the overall picture.
I'm really looking forward to this... My Predictions Casy>FBH NaDa > YarnC Much > Savior (I believe...Much impressed me alot with different strategies... perhaps he got a secret strategy savior does NOT know ) Iris > ZergMan (No Risk - No Fun!)
On February 07 2007 00:24 tfeign wrote: It's funny how zergman wins a couple of zvt's and is now considered a big favorite over Iris
Or Iris losing a couple tvz's and now considered horrible tvz.
It's just silly. 2 games mean nothing. Any pro can win or lose 2 games to any other pro any day. Nobody should ever judged based on 2 games. The fact is, over the span of their last 30 tvz games, Iris is exactly 50% tvz - doesn't fit the definition of horrible tvz by any means. And you don't hold top 10 Kespa for a year by having a horrible tvz especially in a periods where every league is swarmed with zergs. Zergman is 36% zvt. Who's the clear favorite, it's quite simple.
I agree you on this, however..... Sometimes just 2 games do count, even one game counts to bring a player back from the dead, and let them ride the momentum to win more games. It may look like 2 loss is nothing, but that may affect the player's morale and momentum, so even though overall result is important, I think two or even one game is important too. Again this may be a bad example since he didn't make it to round of 8 of this thread, Julyzerg after a win vs Xellos in an imporant match up in the proleagus finals helped him get a momentum and dominate Oov, the MSL survivor, the wildcards for OSL, and he showed really good performance agaisnt Casy too, almost coming for a comeback in game 1(although all these opponents besides Casy I think are slumping or sucky). Julyzerg has comeback to life in my opinion ^^. So Iris who lost to Gorush, who has terrible builds lately, and Zergman who beat Hwasin TvZ gosu, I think this will give Zergman confidence and the momentum to beat Iris. So although what you are saying is totally right about the larger picture, you should see the smaller ones too, like the 2 silly games, because soon they will become the larger picture ^^. Sorry for making this so fucking long.
You're just randomnly making guesses with little basis for evidence. Winning a game may give a confidence boost, but it does not increase his chances of winning in the next game. You cited 1 example - I'm sorry but 1 example is nowhere near enough to form such a conclusion.
According to you, every time Zergman wins a game, he is more likely to win his next game as well.
I don't look at 1 or 2 games as evidence. I look at his last 30 zvt games, which look something like this (Most recent first):
WWWLWLLLLWLLLLLWLLWWLWLWLLLWLLL
According to Zergman's last 30 game history, whenever Zergman wins a game, his chances of winning the next game is 30%.
Him winning a game does not increase his chances in winning the next game in any way. As a matter of fact, immediately following a win, he is much more likely to lose the next game than to win it.
Your point on taking more then the last 2 games is valid and I agree that any progamer can lose to anyother on any given day. (Just look at liquibet, the best better has less then 70% bets right when a random better should be at 50%)
But you can't make stats like that on the gamers, your not ion a equiprobable world (don't know if that's the right term in english). If on the last 10 games you have 50% winning ration PvZ but you've played 8 times vs Savior, that doesn't mean your a PvZ nobody.
Statisitcs are fine but they don't consider the opponents' levels, the maps played and some players can have big improvements on a short time. So going to far back can also bias the stats since the player may play a lo better now then he used to.
On February 07 2007 01:05 Orome wrote: The thing you're missing Tfeign is that Mana's new hobby is to rag on Iris' TvZ, and, true or not, everyone's blindly jumping on the bandwagon. :p
Zergman is the favourite for this series, but today's outcome is very uncertain.
I've come to realize for a while now that Mana likes to rag on a lot of things that are just completely nonsense, which stems from just watching 1-2 games and making a definite conclusion out of it.
I remember his rag on Midas's tvz and how Midas has one of the worst tvz in progaming, and most of the forum jumped the bandwagon as well. I was one of the few defending Midas's tvz. I think since then Midas has proven that his tvz is nowhere near as bad as anyone then thought.
It sounds real familiar actually. At that time Midas lost 1 game to Zergman, which was what caused Mana to rag that Midas's tvz was complete shit. I didn't follow the bandwagon and said that 1 game really did not mean anything, and that if we look at Midas's overall statistics in tvz that his tvz was actually quite good.
Very similar here. Iris lost a couple of tvz's. Now people ragging on Iris and his horrible tvz without looking at the big picture. According to the big picture, although Iris's tvz is not as strong as Midas's, it's definitely not as bad as what people claim he is. No one should look at 1-2 games and form such a conclusion. You need to look at the overall picture.
Midas at that time wasn't good tvz. He improved alot but Mana probably just said that cause Midas plays sloppy and makes mistakes and chokes. You go too much into statistics and stuff. Iris's tvz isn't considered cause he keeps on losing to Gorush and lost even on longinus which is considered a bad map for zvt and he lost to a total amatuer/rookie Nal_keke in survivor. Your arguments always include kespa. Kespa is not really an accurate source cause its not the present. Like when xellos was slumping but his win 2004 wcg kept him on top 10 for a while when he did nothing. And iris as you said top 10 on kespa with 50% tvz isn't performing well lately against zergs even though the maps are terran favored while zergman is performing pretty well.
On February 07 2007 00:24 tfeign wrote: It's funny how zergman wins a couple of zvt's and is now considered a big favorite over Iris
Or Iris losing a couple tvz's and now considered horrible tvz.
It's just silly. 2 games mean nothing. Any pro can win or lose 2 games to any other pro any day. Nobody should ever judged based on 2 games. The fact is, over the span of their last 30 tvz games, Iris is exactly 50% tvz - doesn't fit the definition of horrible tvz by any means. And you don't hold top 10 Kespa for a year by having a horrible tvz especially in a periods where every league is swarmed with zergs. Zergman is 36% zvt. Who's the clear favorite, it's quite simple.
I agree you on this, however..... Sometimes just 2 games do count, even one game counts to bring a player back from the dead, and let them ride the momentum to win more games. It may look like 2 loss is nothing, but that may affect the player's morale and momentum, so even though overall result is important, I think two or even one game is important too. Again this may be a bad example since he didn't make it to round of 8 of this thread, Julyzerg after a win vs Xellos in an imporant match up in the proleagus finals helped him get a momentum and dominate Oov, the MSL survivor, the wildcards for OSL, and he showed really good performance agaisnt Casy too, almost coming for a comeback in game 1(although all these opponents besides Casy I think are slumping or sucky). Julyzerg has comeback to life in my opinion ^^. So Iris who lost to Gorush, who has terrible builds lately, and Zergman who beat Hwasin TvZ gosu, I think this will give Zergman confidence and the momentum to beat Iris. So although what you are saying is totally right about the larger picture, you should see the smaller ones too, like the 2 silly games, because soon they will become the larger picture ^^. Sorry for making this so fucking long.
You're just randomnly making guesses with little basis for evidence. Winning a game may give a confidence boost, but it does not increase his chances of winning in the next game. You cited 1 example - I'm sorry but 1 example is nowhere near enough to form such a conclusion.
According to you, every time Zergman wins a game, he is more likely to win his next game as well.
I don't look at 1 or 2 games as evidence. I look at his last 30 zvt games, which look something like this (Most recent first):
WWWLWLLLLWLLLLLWLLWWLWLWLLLWLLL
According to Zergman's last 30 game history, whenever Zergman wins a game, his chances of winning the next game is 30%.
Him winning a game does not increase his chances in winning the next game in any way. As a matter of fact, immediately following a win, he is much more likely to lose the next game than to win it.
once again you are ignoring something that is crucially relevant to the match: IRIS SUCKS AT TVZ
fantasy's post wasnt really informed either but you're clueless if you think zergman's chances in this series aren't good
I'm not telling you that iris' tvz is bad according to results, or that zergman's chances are good because he won a few games. I'm telling you that based on my extensive knowledge of the players and zvt itself, that iris is going to get buttfucked because zergman is better, and I guarantee I am a better source of information than most you're going to talk to
On February 07 2007 01:35 puLs.ReADy wrote: Guys why you all put Nada over Arnc ?... Arnc will win i bet !
I think he will too. If i remember yellow[arnc] is 3-0 against Nada i maybe wrong. I remember in dual Yellow raped the hell out of Nada on rov. I remember during Sea.up vs. Nada game commentator said Nada wants revenge against Yellow[arnc] and the maps arent the best for zvt.
the game has been over since casy lost his nat. casy all-ins with scvs and gols to try to break the contain, all attacking units and scvs are massacred
Casy was so far ahead after that 14cc and if he had just kept his wraiths for defense and gone cloaking he could have dominated FBH. Progamers are always trying to be aggressive though and in this case it cost him the game. FBH rolled over Casy's nat with just tanks and like 2 marine/gol when Casy had 6+ wraiths too far way at FBH's nat.
A loss like that is enough for a player like Casy to tighten up his game. There's no way FBH is gonna win one of the next two, despite how much i LOooOOOooOve him
I think many of you are underestimating Iris' potential. He's bad TvZ, yes, but not hopeless (like Mumyung ZvT). With the kind of potential he shows in TvT and partially in TvP as well, it's only a matter of time before his TvZ picks up, similar to Midas'.
He'll be another great Terran, just give him some time.
Mutas in the air and muta/speedling gets some marine kill at nada's nat. Nada doesn't have turrets and mutas take even more scvs before being chased away.
Its mainly sk terran now. Lots of vessels. Oh all vessels just got plagued. But Nada's army is to big now. Nada goes for the next expansion rather than a main attack. Dropship incoming in yellows main!
Yellow attempts 3 over drop at 9, destroyed by irradiate on overs+turrets. He manages to get a plague on the vessels though and kills a bunch of them with 1-2 mutas later
Was it just me or was NaDa's control not up to par in this game? So many mistakes that I wouldn't expect from NaDa. His macro was great though, as usual.
omfg... that was one of most amazing TvZ's ever... every single zerg strat except ultras... nonstop action and battles at like 3 places at once... insane
have to say, i've got a lot more respect for fakeyellow after this... i actually kind of feel bad he lost... he played like his life depended on it
Nada lost dozens of MM and tanks when basic defensive maneuvers in some of the initial attacks would have strangled Yarnc. He could have ended the game 15 minutes earlier if he could micro.
i dont think nada's micro was bad i think yellow was just on the spot with his swarms and attacks until the last 5 mins were he was kinda suiciding alot of lings.
It definitely was not amazing this game. His multitasking and macro were top notch sure. Perhaps it was Yarnc's good defiler use and not Nada's terrible micro but it seems that Nada ought to have won a lot more battles than he did.
The live reports clearly have people besides me noting Nada's problems with micro this game. I don't understand why there's this hostility when all I did was make an exaggeration. Looks like a few Nada fanboys out tonight.
the only reason why nada's micro seemed bad is because you don't see pubby zergs play as well as fake yellow did, creating havoc all over the map. nada must have been multitasking like mad. i bet for every mistake we saw on camera, nada did 10 things correctly somewhere else on the map
On February 07 2007 02:42 nova_442 wrote: Nada's micro this game was fucking bad. I play pub gamers on west with better than this O_O
Dont be so harsh. There were times where nada had 3 seperate armys moving around. In fact he did this to hold the pressure on yellow and force him to split himself up to save his expos with swarm rather than attacking with fullforce + swarm at nadas main.
Defining moment of the game was definitely losing the 12 expansion here. Late lurkers due to adding additional muta beyond the first 9 contributed to that a lot. Yarnc could have rallied hydra to 12 ramp before the MM would have got there though.
Ok I'm saying this for the last time on this thread. If you took what I said literally about Nada's micro, *you* are the FUCKING IDIOT.
On February 07 2007 02:49 Resonate wrote: i think if yellow had morphed his first 3 lurkers on the ramp to 12:00 then he'd have probably won the game with that kind of micro.
If you're a zerg player, you might not understand just how hard it is to control a terran army vs swarm. Whatever you said about playing west pubbies with better micro isn't a good point unless those pubbies also had Nada's macro while performing better micro.
If nada focused more on the battles and would therefore win more of them, he'd also have less time to macro and less units. So, it's a trade-off and he took the macro route. I'd be amaze at any progamer who can macro as well as nada did that game and still pull off better micro.
That said, I don't think Nada's micro was too bad. He did some nice maneuvers, distracting yarnc. Even if he loss some units with those maneuvers, he was still up because he had the income to do it. Yarnc on the other hand, was playing a low econ game. Sure, one time he had 4 bases, but a few seconds later, a m&m raid killed all the drones off of one of the bases. So by harassing yarnc so much, nada prevented him from taking any more bases.
On February 07 2007 02:53 Blind wrote: If you're a zerg player, you might not understand just how hard it is to control an army vs swarm. Whatever you said about playing west pubbies with better micro isn't a good point unless those pubbies also had Nada's macro while performing better micro.
If nada focused more on the battles and would therefore win more of them, he'd also have less time to macro and less units. So, it's a trade-off and he took the macro route. I'd be amaze at any progamer who can macro as well as nada did that game and still pull off better micro.
That said, I don't think Nada's micro was too bad. He did some nice maneuvers, distracting yarn. Evn if he loss some units with that micro, he was still up because he had the income to do it. Yarnc on the other hand, was playing a low econ game. Sure, one time he had 4 bases, but a few seconds later, a marine raid killed all the drones off of one of the bases. So by harassing yarnc so much, nada prevented him from taking any more bases.
Read the million posts about this before you post yourself, thanks.
On February 07 2007 02:53 Blind wrote: If nada focused more on the battles and would therefore win more of them, he'd also have less time to macro and less units. So, it's a trade-off and he took the macro route. I'd be amaze at any progamer who can macro as well as nada did that game and still pull off better micro.
this is true, but in his prime nada would macro that hard and still micro a lot better at the same time i think. I know he had the game 'in the bag' after 15 minutes, but it still begs the question as to where all those 400 apm went...
On February 07 2007 02:53 Blind wrote: If you're a zerg player, you might not understand just how hard it is to control an army vs swarm. Whatever you said about playing west pubbies with better micro isn't a good point unless those pubbies also had Nada's macro while performing better micro.
If nada focused more on the battles and would therefore win more of them, he'd also have less time to macro and less units. So, it's a trade-off and he took the macro route. I'd be amaze at any progamer who can macro as well as nada did that game and still pull off better micro.
That said, I don't think Nada's micro was too bad. He did some nice maneuvers, distracting yarn. Evn if he loss some units with that micro, he was still up because he had the income to do it. Yarnc on the other hand, was playing a low econ game. Sure, one time he had 4 bases, but a few seconds later, a marine raid killed all the drones off of one of the bases. So by harassing yarnc so much, nada prevented him from taking any more bases.
Read the million posts about this before you post yourself, thanks.
I was typing this as the new posts came in. I read them over and still don't really see anything to disprove what I said. You should take a lesson in manners though.
On February 07 2007 02:53 Blind wrote: If you're a zerg player, you might not understand just how hard it is to control an army vs swarm. Whatever you said about playing west pubbies with better micro isn't a good point unless those pubbies also had Nada's macro while performing better micro.
If nada focused more on the battles and would therefore win more of them, he'd also have less time to macro and less units. So, it's a trade-off and he took the macro route. I'd be amaze at any progamer who can macro as well as nada did that game and still pull off better micro.
That said, I don't think Nada's micro was too bad. He did some nice maneuvers, distracting yarn. Evn if he loss some units with that micro, he was still up because he had the income to do it. Yarnc on the other hand, was playing a low econ game. Sure, one time he had 4 bases, but a few seconds later, a marine raid killed all the drones off of one of the bases. So by harassing yarnc so much, nada prevented him from taking any more bases.
Read the million posts about this before you post yourself, thanks.
I was typing this as the new posts came in. I read them over and still don't really see anything to disprove what I said. You should take a lesson in manners though.
I wasn't the one that started this flamefest. You can thank siro) for that. It should be obvious what I meant initially and it hardly warrants a response like I received. I'm more than happy to fire back though :p
On February 07 2007 02:53 Blind wrote: If you're a zerg player, you might not understand just how hard it is to control an army vs swarm. Whatever you said about playing west pubbies with better micro isn't a good point unless those pubbies also had Nada's macro while performing better micro.
If nada focused more on the battles and would therefore win more of them, he'd also have less time to macro and less units. So, it's a trade-off and he took the macro route. I'd be amaze at any progamer who can macro as well as nada did that game and still pull off better micro.
That said, I don't think Nada's micro was too bad. He did some nice maneuvers, distracting yarn. Evn if he loss some units with that micro, he was still up because he had the income to do it. Yarnc on the other hand, was playing a low econ game. Sure, one time he had 4 bases, but a few seconds later, a marine raid killed all the drones off of one of the bases. So by harassing yarnc so much, nada prevented him from taking any more bases.
Read the million posts about this before you post yourself, thanks.
I was typing this as the new posts came in. I read them over and still don't really see anything to disprove what I said. You should take a lesson in manners though.
I wasn't the one that started this flamefest. You can thank siro) for that. It should be obvious what I meant initially and it hardly warrants a response like I received. I'm more than happy to fire back though :p
Savior scouts what much is doing (not a big surprise I guess...) Much puts a photon behind the main entrance and adds a stargate. Lings are starting opening the way for Savior and he started a den.
On February 07 2007 02:53 Blind wrote: If you're a zerg player, you might not understand just how hard it is to control an army vs swarm. Whatever you said about playing west pubbies with better micro isn't a good point unless those pubbies also had Nada's macro while performing better micro.
If nada focused more on the battles and would therefore win more of them, he'd also have less time to macro and less units. So, it's a trade-off and he took the macro route. I'd be amaze at any progamer who can macro as well as nada did that game and still pull off better micro.
That said, I don't think Nada's micro was too bad. He did some nice maneuvers, distracting yarn. Evn if he loss some units with that micro, he was still up because he had the income to do it. Yarnc on the other hand, was playing a low econ game. Sure, one time he had 4 bases, but a few seconds later, a marine raid killed all the drones off of one of the bases. So by harassing yarnc so much, nada prevented him from taking any more bases.
Read the million posts about this before you post yourself, thanks.
I was typing this as the new posts came in. I read them over and still don't really see anything to disprove what I said. You should take a lesson in manners though.
I wasn't the one that started this flamefest. You can thank siro) for that. It should be obvious what I meant initially and it hardly warrants a response like I received. I'm more than happy to fire back though :p
Where in my post did I flame you?
JLIG yo. Or if you insist send me a PM if you want to continue.
I must have been dreaming about the two dens. Savior is knocking at much's expand with a few lings + 5-6 hydras. Much has 1-2 cannons behind and a goon and he's going reaver.
Haha, hydras were trying to break the last line of buildings at much' second expand but the scarabs go through the buildings and savior has to retreat.
Much drops a probe @ top right (Savior just dropped a drone there too) and starts a building. With the same shuttle he drops a reaver and a zealot at savior's second expand and gets nice drone kills. The shuttle gets shot by scourges with the reaver inside though.
Much expanding at bottom middle (nat of bottom right) Savior has 6-7 devourers and a lot of scourges He spots the expo attempt and has lings on the way it seems
Savior got the nexus on much's 4th base. I think he's climbed back to even or better now, right? I see orange bases all along the top which means 6 base to 4.
On February 07 2007 03:21 Resonate wrote: savior 5-gas ultras now. I dont' knwo where much's army is but he's going to need to show it sometime very soon
my theory of the evolution of starleague maps: some powerful people thought saviors awesomeness increases exponentially to the amount of vespene geysers he has in possession. so they made these morally and ethically abominable maps like arkanoid and hitchhiker to deprive savior of gas. little did they know that savior wins because he is the better player. there's no gas abuse trick he relies on to win. moral is, please make more maps with normal gases and leave the balancing issue to the players
Chaos in the form of a few ultras has reached the protoss' main but is killed by reavers. The first two carriers appear Shortly after a swarm of scourges appear Much types out
that was arguably the worst game i've seen from either player in ages.
about 7-8 minutes in savior had 3 hatchs and a den, THAT WAS IT! no rush, hardly any drones, had he gone to sleep?
Much's opening build looked really suspect, lods of out-of-position static defence... 30 minutes in, he had been mining 3 bases for most of the game and still had only 4 reavers in shuttles... where was his army? had he gone to sleep?
I agree about much but not about Savior. His units loss at the beginning and even later on really pressured much into getting a lot of static defense throughout the game, and once he went to 5 hatches, he really got an army rolling
Much's early game harass set Savior back a lot and I thought he might win this. And adding to the advantage was Savior making some bad drops and attacks. Much just didn't do anything to slow down the expansions on top right which pulled Savior back into the game.
Catyoul is right that Savior put Much in a lot of pressure with his constant attacks, however ineffective.
On February 07 2007 03:32 nova_442 wrote: Much's early game harass set Savior back a lot and I thought he might win this. And adding to the advantage was Savior making some bad drops and attacks. Much just didn't do anything to slow down the expansions on top right which pulled Savior back into the game.
after that initial reaver harass it was savior mining at 5 bases saturated for like 20 minutes straight while attacking
and contrary to what nova and resonate think, the savior drops did plenty, they killed a lot of probes, 2 here 3 there that shit adds up... its not "ineffective" because those drops kept much's reavers at home and not harassing 12:00 and 1:00
much didn't have an army because he was continuously rebuilding cannons and nexus
once savior morphed the control group of devourers it was over because much couldn't move out with the reaver/sair anymore
honestly i don't see how much was really that far ahead at any point in the game
On February 07 2007 03:28 Resonate wrote: that was arguably the worst game i've seen from either player in ages.
Didn't really pay attention to the beginning, but I thought savior played it well towards the mid/end game. Constant pressure on all sides, abusing new chokes in order to pit Much at a corner. He exemplified what it meant to have map control, taking a bunch of gases in the process. Much couldn't do much except rebuild what he had lost, build more cannons, etc.
I was pretty impressed to be honest. Too bad I still want to drive a knife through his neck.
On February 07 2007 03:34 Hot_Bid wrote: and contrary to what nova and resonate think, the savior drops did plenty, they killed a lot of probes, 2 here 3 there that shit adds up... its not "ineffective" because those drops kept much's reavers at home and not harassing 12:00 and 1:00
honestly i don't see how much was really that far ahead at any point in the game
I agree with you. After the first 10 minutes, much was really becoming the underdog and after 15 minutes he was in pretty bad shape.
Savior always seems to have the exact amount of units he needs at the right time and not any more. Saying he sucks cause he had nothing early seems foolish to me. He didn't need them.
I thought Much was pretty far ahead after the first 2 reaver drops. That was fairly early in the game but 10+ drones is a lot at that stage.
Savior was smart enough to keep the pressure up while taking those top of the map expos and it paid off.
I think Much needed storm a bit earlier than he got it. That would have allowed some reaver mobility while maintaining strong defense against hydra/ling. One of the key attacks in the game was at Much's 7 expo where the hydras were sniping templars that didn't have storm yet.
On February 07 2007 03:38 GoBOXERgogo wrote: Savior always seems to have the exact amount of units he needs at the right time and not any more. Saying he sucks cause he had nothing early seems foolish to me. He didn't need them.
You only forgot that Savior manages his units directly with brain waves - like an Overmind.
the first drop killed 3 drones & 2 hydras the second one probably killed 5 drones & 2 hydras It's not 10+ drones, but it does set savior back quite a bit
On February 07 2007 03:39 nova_442 wrote: I thought Much was pretty far ahead after the first 2 reaver drops. That was fairly early in the game but 10+ drones is a lot at that stage.
Savior was smart enough to keep the pressure up while taking those top of the map expos and it paid off.
and savior was mining from 3 bases while much had just started his 3rd
i don't even think much was ahead after that, especially since he lost the reaver/shuttle to scourges, if you trade a reaver/shuttle/zealot you best kill 10+ drones
Reminded me of that one famous kpga tourney finals in 2002 where BoxeR scv/marine rushes the shit out of YellOw (THE REAL ONE), they're even the same colors and everything.
The only difference is that BoxeR sealed the deal with his rush. Iris my friend, you are still 1000 years too early to be on this level.
iris just got realyl fuckign lucky that zergman didnt' cut off his marines and kills them, zergman must have thought he had medics already or he could have won it there
Zergman's economy suffering even more now that he built 5 sunk in front of his nat plus the one near the minerals to save from the scv attack.
Zergman tears the neutral buildings in his main down. Iris floated a factory over his neutral buildings to get some vultures. Zergman scouted it though.
Using it to build vultures, but scouted and harassed by lings, but vulture micro > lings Iris killed a bunch of lings in the narrow middle path. Zergman going through the alternat path with lings/lurkers Iris
Zergman takes that opportunity to make a little bit of damage with lurk/lings in Iris main. Iris' troops are meet resistance Iris gets a few marines up the cliff above Zergman's nat but barely does damage
iris got delayed amazingly by zergman (waiting for hive) when he wanted to take his nat, then zergman killed iris' nat with swarm and it was over from there really. iris countered round te back and floated to his min-only but zergman was relentless and swarm/lurkered it for the win.
iris did kind of lose this game, but credit goes to zergman for his delay tactics till his hive tech kicked in
On February 07 2007 04:11 nova_442 wrote: Iris, TvZ monster that is, manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Nice play Zergman, coming back from that start is something.
he wasn't that behind -_-
i don't understand why people thought iris was that far ahead
yes iris fucked up the tank push and got delayed, but the beginning was still even, zergman had 2 gas and powered drones once he stopped the scv rush, and iris wasn't even saturated at his main
Zergman had only 8 drones in total where Iris saved 6 of the scvs from the 10 that rushed alone. Iris gave some back when he tried to bunk though. Then Zergman oversunkened his nat. Obviously *he* thought he was quite behind after the rush and that's what I thought too.
The art of the game was not early, that's for sure. It was ugly.
It's bo3 but OSL uses the weird style of playing one game every couple days instead of just getting the bo3 over with like MSL. Semis and finals are bo5.
Thanks a lot yakii...and of course thanks also to the people who helped you... Korean Progaming at its best!...Downloading right now!... Go FireBatHero you can do this!!!...
wow i just watched the nada vs yarnc game, was quite good. yellow had a lot of pressure on him all the time and dealt with it quite well, but could never really manage to get out of his base(s) :\
Thanks yakii (and boghat for putting his links in the OP).
I'm liking the increased use of nydus canals on non-island maps. That and the good swarm use kept yarnc alive for the last 7-8 minutes, and really seemed to throw Nada off.
On February 07 2007 02:51 nova_442 wrote: Defining moment of the game was definitely losing the 12 expansion here. Late lurkers due to adding additional muta beyond the first 9 contributed to that a lot. Yarnc could have rallied hydra to 12 ramp before the MM would have got there though.
Ok I'm saying this for the last time on this thread. If you took what I said literally about Nada's micro, *you* are the FUCKING IDIOT.
How else were we supposed to take your comments about NaDa's micro....? Metaphorically?
I'm confused. Why did you say it at all? You dare compare your micro to NaDa's? Especially when it's up against a player who dispatched iloveOOv.
On February 07 2007 00:24 tfeign wrote: It's funny how zergman wins a couple of zvt's and is now considered a big favorite over Iris
Or Iris losing a couple tvz's and now considered horrible tvz.
It's just silly. 2 games mean nothing. Any pro can win or lose 2 games to any other pro any day. Nobody should ever judged based on 2 games. The fact is, over the span of their last 30 tvz games, Iris is exactly 50% tvz - doesn't fit the definition of horrible tvz by any means. And you don't hold top 10 Kespa for a year by having a horrible tvz especially in a periods where every league is swarmed with zergs. Zergman is 36% zvt. Who's the clear favorite, it's quite simple.
I agree you on this, however..... Sometimes just 2 games do count, even one game counts to bring a player back from the dead, and let them ride the momentum to win more games. It may look like 2 loss is nothing, but that may affect the player's morale and momentum, so even though overall result is important, I think two or even one game is important too. Again this may be a bad example since he didn't make it to round of 8 of this thread, Julyzerg after a win vs Xellos in an imporant match up in the proleagus finals helped him get a momentum and dominate Oov, the MSL survivor, the wildcards for OSL, and he showed really good performance agaisnt Casy too, almost coming for a comeback in game 1(although all these opponents besides Casy I think are slumping or sucky). Julyzerg has comeback to life in my opinion ^^. So Iris who lost to Gorush, who has terrible builds lately, and Zergman who beat Hwasin TvZ gosu, I think this will give Zergman confidence and the momentum to beat Iris. So although what you are saying is totally right about the larger picture, you should see the smaller ones too, like the 2 silly games, because soon they will become the larger picture ^^. Sorry for making this so fucking long.
You're just randomnly making guesses with little basis for evidence. Winning a game may give a confidence boost, but it does not increase his chances of winning in the next game. You cited 1 example - I'm sorry but 1 example is nowhere near enough to form such a conclusion.
According to you, every time Zergman wins a game, he is more likely to win his next game as well.
I don't look at 1 or 2 games as evidence. I look at his last 30 zvt games, which look something like this (Most recent first):
WWWLWLLLLWLLLLLWLLWWLWLWLLLWLLL
According to Zergman's last 30 game history, whenever Zergman wins a game, his chances of winning the next game is 30%.
Him winning a game does not increase his chances in winning the next game in any way. As a matter of fact, immediately following a win, he is much more likely to lose the next game than to win it.
once again you are ignoring something that is crucially relevant to the match: IRIS SUCKS AT TVZ
fantasy's post wasnt really informed either but you're clueless if you think zergman's chances in this series aren't good
I'm not telling you that iris' tvz is bad according to results, or that zergman's chances are good because he won a few games. I'm telling you that based on my extensive knowledge of the players and zvt itself, that iris is going to get buttfucked because zergman is better, and I guarantee I am a better source of information than most you're going to talk to
This sorta makes me laugh cause I always remember you being pretty bad at all match ups
On February 07 2007 02:42 nova_442 wrote: Nada's micro this game was fucking bad. I play pub gamers on west with better than this O_O
Look at his macro this game; then ask why his micro was so bad...then shh Sorry to sound like a dick but I hate hearing this. Every time a terran gosu focuses on macro play style it's always the same thing.
EPT![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/images/liquibet/players/Casy.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/images/liquibet/players/Firebathero.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/images/liquibet/players/Nada.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/images/liquibet/players/YellOw[ArnC].jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/images/liquibet/players/Much[gm].jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/images/liquibet/players/sAviOr.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/images/liquibet/players/Iris[gm].jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/images/liquibet/players/Zergman.jpg)
)![[image loading]](http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/9804/saviorcharcoalcopyxt7.png)
![[image loading]](http://i7.tinypic.com/4bpx0nt.jpg)
